Red Line Report’s 2012 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their final top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (changes from their previous rankings are noted in brackets, for the previous list go here):
1. Nail Yakupov (Sarnia, OHL)
2. Filip Forsberg (Leksand, Sweden)
3. Matt Dumba (Red Deer, WHL)
4. Ryan Murray (Everett, WHL)
5. Alex Galchenyuk (Sarnia, OHL) (+1)
6. Morgan Rielly (Moose Jaw, WHL) (+1)
7. Teuvo Teravainen (Jokerit, Finland) (-2)
8. Mikhail Grigorenko (Quebec, QMJHL)
9. Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton, WHL)
10. Andrey Vasilevski (Salavat, KHL)
11. Jacob Trouba (US NTDP, USHL)
12. Derrick Pouliot (Portland, WHL)
13. Olli Maatta (London, OHL) (+11)
14. Matt Finn (Guelph, OHL) (-1)
15. Pontus Aberg (Djurgarden, Sweden)
16. Radek Faksa (Kitchener, OHL)
17. Scott Laughton (Oshawa, OHL)
18. Hampus Lindholm (Rogle, Sweden) (+2)
19. Cody Ceci (Ottawa 67s, OHL) (-1)
20. Zemgus Girgensons (Dubuque, USHL) (-1)
21. Slater Koekkoek (Peterborough, OHL)
22. Henrik Samuelsson (US NTDP, USHL) (+2)
23. Jordan Schmaltz (Sioux City, USHL)
24. Sebastian Collberg (Frolunda, Sweden) (-2)
25. Scott Kosmachuk (Guelph, OHL)
26. Tomas Hertl (Slavia, Cze)
27. Tom Wilson (Plymouth, OHL) (+1)
28. Mark Jankowski (Stanstead College, CAHS) (NR)
29. Brady Skjei (US NTDP, USHL)
30. Damon Severson (Kelowna, WHL) (-3)
Falling out of the top-30: Oscar Dansk (#31, -1). Here’s the movement among former top-30 players: Phil Di Giuseppe (#32, NC), Brendan Gaunce (#34, -3), Colton Sissons (#39, NC), Martin Frk (#40, NC), Anton Slepyshev (#41, NC), Troy Bourke (#51, NC), Chandler Stephenson (#53, +3), Nick Ebert (#54, -1), Gianluca Curcuruto (#70, NC), Jarrod Maidens (#81, +9), Eric Locke (#98, -1), Matia Marcantuoni (#110, -1), Calle Andersson (#144, -22), Patrik Machac (#185, NC), Ryan Olsen (#213, +12), and Luca Ciampini (NR).
Red Line Report‘s guide is very comprehensive, listing 312-players along with a list of ten older European players who may be drafted (see below). In both mock drafts they have Ottawa selecting Mark Jankowski saying, ”The Murrays are bold enough to make this pick, aren’t they? The last time they were sitting at #15 they took a gamble on a small but super-skilled kid named Karlsson. Ring a bell? Has the feel of a Tim Murray shoot-for-the-homerun upside type of pick.“ Writing about the organisation, “GM Bryan Murray changed this team’s roster on the fly in 2010-11, and they were a highly competitive team this year. The big worry for the Sens is whether Daniel Alfredsson is coming back. This team will get a raw skill boost next season if Jakob Silfverberg and Mika Zibanejad are in the lineup. Silfverberg was a point-per-game scorer in Sweden. Ultimately, Robin Lehner in goal could be the biggest difference-maker of all the talent in the pipeline. Defenceman Filip Kuba will presumably be moving on, and Ottawa should have enough money in the budget to add a quality replacement. The Sens look like a team on the rise. Tim Murray, Bryan’s nephew, has proven himself at the draft table.”
RLR writes about intriguing European free agents (something I touched on in January) noting a number have already been signed (like SEL star Richard Gynge in the KHL), but here’s others who have not: Ilya Nikulin (KHL), Damian Brunner (NLA), Alexander Popov (KHL), Jan Laco (Slovakia), Libor Hudacek (Slovakia), Jerome Flaake (DEL), Joacim Eriksson (SEL), and Robert Rosen (SEL). Here’s their list of overage Europeans who may be drafted: Viktor Svedberg (SEL), Jakub Krejcik (Czech), Simon Bertilson (SEL), Markus Ljungh (Allsvenskan), Jakub Orsava (Czech), Philip Holm (SEL), Alen Bibic (Allsvenskan), Dennis Everberg (SEL), Petter Emanuelsson (SEL), and Jonathan Johansson (Allsvenskan).
In terms of their prognostication, RLR was first among publications last year in player X picked at position X, but tied for last in percentage of overall players selected (44%). In fairness to RLR they make it clear “our rankings reflect the order in which we would draft the prospects if we were doing the selecting. So we recognise that some players will go higher than we have them ranked, and others will go lower.” For draft fans this is my favourite product although it’s not for the casual fan.
8 Comments
Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI
[...] Red Line Report’s 2012 NHL Draft Guide [...]
I know ‘we’ don’t have a second rounder this year, but is the upside on this Jankowski kid that big? All reports you give (and others) have him fall out of the first round, some even think he might be available in the third.
Then there’s the fact that he’s a centre. IMHO the immediate needs of the organisation are elsewhere. I know the Murrays seldom do what the majority expects, but isn’t picking one of the promising D men the more sensible thing to do? And if all or most of the 14 teams above us pick D, that’ll mean pretty high ranked forwards are available. Just my 2cts.
It’s an odd choice for RLR to make, as all the other publications see him as a mid-second rounder. From what’s been said by the organisation they will take the best player available regardless of position, so I think need is less relevant (although they could clearly use another puck-moving blueliner). That being said, I’d be surprised if Jankowski was their selection..
It would be worth including corey pronman in your draft evaluations and also into your model.
That would be a good idea. He seems very knowledgeable. He has some debatable picks for certain positions, but does a great job explaining why. Have a look here: http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1305
Thanks for the link! I’ll definitely comment on it.
[...] Red Line Report’s 2012 NHL Draft Guide [...]
[...] taken in the draft (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft): EOTS 160/211 (75.8%) RLR 156/211 (73.9%) HP 152/211 (72.0%) FC 150/211 (71.1%) ISS 146/220 (70.4%) (ISS’ picks [...]