Reviewing the 2012 NHL Entry Draft

In what was described as a weak to average draft there was little consensus beyond the top-10 (just like in 2011).  Scouts said that little separated players ranked 11-40 and the conventional wisdom was spot on–exact predictions got hammered this year as compared to the previous two drafts.

Acronyms: EOTS (Eye on the Sens), TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), RLR (Red Line Report), THN (The Hockey News), ISS (International Scouting Service), and McK (McKeen’s)

First round
Player X at Position X
TSN 5/30
HP/FC/ISS/McK 2/30
RLR/EOTS 1/30
Players picked for the round
TSN 27/30
McK 26/30
RLR 25/30
EOTS/THN 24/30
ISS/FC/HP 22/30

Second Round
Exact Placements
TSN 2/31
EOTS/RLR/McK 1/31
Round Placements
TSN 18/31
EOTS/RLR/McK 12/31
THN 11/31
HP 10/31
ISS/FC 6/31

Third Round (minus TSN because Bob McKenzie’s list is only the top-60)
Exact
EOTS/HP 1/30
Round
RLR 8/30
EOTS/HP 7/30
FC/McK 6/30
THN 4/30
ISS 3/30

Fourth Round (minus THN because their list is only the top-100)
Exact
McK/FC 1/30
Round
McK 6/30
HP 5/30
EOTS 4/30
FC 3/30
RLR 2/30
ISS 1/30

Fifth Round (minus McK because their list is only the top-120)
Exact
Incredibly (or perhaps not), none of the sources had an exact prediction for the rest of the draft
Round
FC 6/30
EOTS 5/30
HP 4/30
ISS 3/30
RLR 1/30

Sixth Round
FC 3/30
EOTS/HP 2/30
RLR/ISS 1/30

Seventh Round
EOTS 3/30
HP/FC/ISS/RLR 2/30

All Rounds (this excludes TSN, THN, and Mckeen’s because they did not predict the entire draft):
EOTS 57/211 (27.0%)
HP 52/211 (24.6%)
RLR 51/211 (24.2%)
FC 48/211 (22.7%)
ISS 38/211 (18.0%)

This represents a 5% drop from last year for me and most of my sources (except for HP which marginally improved).  The results for ISS were particularly abysmal.  However, the business of slotting players in specific rounds doesn’t get much better than the low 30s% so to fully assess how well we picked players who would be drafted, here’s the listed players taken in the draft (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft):
EOTS 160/211 (75.8%)
RLR 156/211 (73.9%)
HP 152/211 (72.0%)
FC 150/211 (71.1%)
ISS 146/220 (70.4%) (ISS’ picks can’t be cut down to 211 because of the way they are put together)
Unranked players taken: 23 (10.9%)
Players from European leagues: 35 (16.6%)
Note: I didn’t use Corey Pronman‘s (of Hockey Prospectus) list, but his tally: 110/125 (88.0%)

This is a 5% improvement in predicting the total number of players taken compared to last year.  All the source numbers rose as well.  The most consistent predictions remain the top-100 players.  The highest ranked player who was not drafted was Russian Anton Slepyshev (ranked as a second or third rounder, #50 on my list), followed by Dane Fox (#57).  No other player went undrafted who was listed by at least six sources, but three other prospects picked by five were on the outside looking in (Cody Corbett (#102), Andrei Makarov (#107), and Marcus McIvor (#122)).  Among the unranked players selected, many were older (like Sergei Kostenko), one re-entered the draft (Frederik Andersen), but there wasn’t the usual dominance of unknown Europeans (10 of the 23 were from Europe).

Here’s the list of the highest ranked players not taken from each source (CSNA=Central Scouting North America, CSE=CS Europe, CSNAG= CSNA Goalies, CSNG=CSE Goalies):
CSNA
#46 Dane Fox
#70 Max Iafrate
#79 Devin Tringale
CSE
#10 Anton Slepyshev
#13 Vyacheslav Osnovin
#19 Erik Thorell
CSNAG
#7 Andrei Makarov
#8 Patrik Bartosak
CSE
#4 Jean Auren
#6 Mathias Israelsson
ISS skaters
#36 Anton Slepyshev
#54 Dane Fox
#66 Emil Lundberg
ISS goaltenders
#13 Joonas Toivonen
#15 Patrik Bartosak
RLR
#41 Anton Slepyshev
#44 Andrei Makarov
#45 Dane Fox
HP
#60 Dane Fox
#78 Anton Slepyshev
#93 Brett Foy
FC
#48 Anton Slepyshev
#63 Emil Lundberg
#66 Cody Corbett
McKeen’s
#60 Dane Fox
#67 Anton Slepyshev
#75 Henri Ikonen
Corey Pronman
#17 Anton Slepyshev
#42 Nathan Walker
#49 Austin Cangelosi

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9 Comments

  1. […] Reviewing the 2012 NHL Entry Draft […]

  2. […] stands for a bit and I thought I would take a look at it (here is my preview of THN last year and here is a look at the success of their prognostication).  For the sake of comparison I’ve […]

  3. […] but it’s a free service).  ISS was dead last in drafting acumen (you can check it out here).  Here is their top-30 (which differs slightly from what they just […]

  4. […] Future Considerations 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings and my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here; for their predictive accuracy go here): […]

  5. […] The Hockey Prospect’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out and here’s a look at their top-30 rankings along with my thoughts about the publication (for last year’s go here and for their accuracy go here): […]

  6. […] Red Line Report’s 2013 NHL draft guide is out–here’s a look at their final top-30 rankings along with my thoughts on the publication (for last year’s go here and for their predictive success go here): […]

  7. […] sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS), and 75% in 2012 (two points up on Red Line Report).  What follows is a continuation of the same […]

  8. […] is pretty similar to last year, just slightly lower (although I improved […]

  9. […] entire class (well ahead of my sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (again well ahead), 75% in 2012 (two points up on Red Line Report), and 69% in 2013 (tied with Hockey Prospect‘s).  What […]


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