Analysis and Predictions for the 2013 NHL Entry Draft

With the advent of the NHL salary cap after the 2004-05 lockout, it became paramount for all organisations to invest in their scouting operations and draft well.  Teams could no longer simply buy their way out of trouble or plug holes with expensive free agent talent.  That change has helped drive the cottage industry that is draft prediction, but the wide variety of sources are not created equal and few of those who provide their opinions will reflect on their subsequent accuracy.  It is my purpose here to collate the best sources and provide insight into who will be selected in this year’s upcoming NHL entry draft.

This is my fourth year predicting the draft (beginning with the now defunct Hockey Herald back in 2010).  That year I picked 72% of the entire class (well ahead of other sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS), and 75% in 2012 (two points up on Red Line Report).  What follows is a continuation of the same analysis.

My method is to take the sum of reliable sources and produce an aggregate number (so player X is ranked 15, 24, and 32, by different sources, those numbers are then averaged).  This gives me a number I can use to compare that player to others.  I then engage in further comparative analysis—for instance, if player X has a higher aggregate score, but player Y has the higher median score, the latter is given the higher position.  Precise predictions (player X at pick #29) are much more difficult (I was 27% last year, which topped my sources).  The first round remains the easiest to predict in terms of who will be picked.

Determining my Sources of Data

While a wide variety of media and bloggers produce draft predictions (especially for the first round), not all are created equal.  My preference is the professional scouting community itself and those sources that they rely on.  For that purpose, The International Scouting Service (ISS), Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report (RLR), and Central Scouting (CS) are particularly weighty.  Central Scouting is the NHL’s own scouting service, while ISS and RLR are independent scouting services used within the NHL.  I also give TSN’s Bob McKenzie predictions a lot of weight, as his rankings prove an excellent barometer for draft results.  Unfortunately Bob only focusses on the first two rounds which limits his utility.

Rounding out my sources this year are The Hockey News (THN),  Future Considerations (FC), Hockey Prospects (HP), and McKeen’s (McK).  They provide extensive predictions and are put together by knowledgeable hockey people.  I’ve also looked at Corey Pronman and The Hockey Writers‘ listings as reference points (the reason the latter two aren’t incorporated is that Pronman’s de-emphasis on defensemen and goaltenders isn’t echoed by NHL teams, while the last time I used THW their predictive success lagged well behind everyone else).  These latter sources (along with CS, for reasons explained below) are not used to create the aggregate number (that comes from the other seven sources).

It has to be noted that both ISS and CS have inherent comparative problems.  Central Scouting does not create a master list—players are divided into North American and European skaters, as well as being separated into goalie and skater categories.  ISS separates their goaltenders into a separate ranking (these at least can be loosely incorporated into an aggregate number by using the round they are slotted into).  These drawbacks are part of the reason I load up with the additional data.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a difference between assessing who the best player is versus who a team will draft.  Some publications give weight to the latter, while other sources do not.  My purpose here is to slot players where they will be picked rather than assessing who is the best.

Notes

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), CS (Central Scouting), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospect), TSN (The Sports Network, specifically Bob McKenzie), THN (The Hockey News), FC (Future Considerations), (McK) McKeen’s , (CP) Corey Pronman, and THW (The Hockey Writers).  I have not designated CS as NA or E, not gone to NAG or EG for goaltenders–those designations apply, but the specifics don’t seem particularly relevant for the purposes of the list.

Ranking depth: CS 385 (210 skaters and 35 goalies in North America along with 130 skaters and 10 goalies in Europe), RLR 315, CP 250, ISS 220 (200 skaters and 20 goaltenders), HP 210, FC 210, McK 120 (plus 32 honourable mentions/sleepers), THN 100, and TSN 75 (plus 5 honourable mentions).  Combined, 379 individual players are considered worthy for selection (so 44% will not be chosen).

The analysis itself: the aggregate is the total score of the player divided by the number of sources ranking that player (this score does not include the CS ranking given the issues detailed above).  When I say a player beats another “head-to-head” or on aggregate I mean that he has a better median score.  This year I’ve also tried to include vagaries like “honorable mentions” and “sleepers” (where they aren’t already part of a numbered list) by slotting them where it seems appropriate (for McKeen’s I put the honourable mentions in the 5th round and the sleepers in the 6th, while I slot Bob McKenzie’s honourables in the 4th round).  I feel this inclusion helps round out the likelihood of players being drafted.

There is an extra 2nd round pick this year as Winnipeg receives a compensatory pick for not signing 2008 1st-round pick Dalton Leveille.  This means the draft (just like last year) will select 211 players.

A final comment: the most obvious struggle for accurate scouting assessment remains players in Europe, who are underrepresented in lists for the obvious reason that it’s more expensive to cover Europe.  A smaller issue is the hard-on some in the scouting community have for players on the US National Development Team.

Ottawa and the Draft

The Sens have the following picks: 1-17, 3-78, 4-102 (acquired in the Ben Bishop trade), 4-108, 5-138, 6-161 (acquired via the Sergei Gonchar deal), and 6-168.  The Sens lost their 2nd round pick when they traded for Bishop, while their 7th round pick was lost in acquiring Rob Klinkhammer.  If there are no trades and the list below is exactly how the draft plays out the Sens would draft: Josh Morrissey, Niklas Hansson, Kurt Etchegary, Cole Cassels, Blaine Byron, Brody Silk, and Jerret Smith.  That would mean four forwards and three defensemen.  The mock drafts from professionals have the Sens picking the following players in the first round: Max Domi (NHL.com), Kerby Rychel (NHL.com), Curtis Lazar (THW), Josh Morrissey (RLR), Alex Wennberg (RLR), Samuel Morin (FC), or Andre Burakowsky (ISS)–with so many names, someone is bound to be right.

First Round

1. Nathan MacKinnon (1.86) – he is not the consensus pick and loses to Jones on aggregate and head-to-head, but given Colorado has said they will not select the blueliner with the first overall pick MacKinnon winds up in first
2. Seth Jones (1.43) – the champ statistically (although only slightly, as 4 out of 7 sources have him first), but with the Avalanche’s public decision he can ascend no higher
3. Jonathan Drouin (2.71) – RLR and THN are the only two sources who see him above this position (no one has him lower); anomalously, CP has him 1st overall
4. Aleksander Barkov (4.71) – despite the close aggregate score with Nichushkin below, he’s ahead by all measures (the Russian factor doesn’t hurt either)
5. Elias Lindholm (5.71) – I am playing the Russian card here as Lindholm loses to Nichushkin on aggregate and head-to-head
6. Valeri Nichushkin (5.00) – Russians typically drop and I’m assuming a slight dip here; he’s the last player whose selections are all in the top-ten
7. Sean Monahan (7.71) – only McK’s (11) has him outside the top-ten and he’s comfortably ahead of Nurse
8. Darnell Nurse (8.86) – only HP (16) has him outside the top-ten
9. Nikita Zadorov (10.71) – solidly slotted here, but the Russian factor has to be kept in mind
10. Max Domi (12.57) – ISS (25) is not a fan of the diminutive forward, but even throwing out that score he falls behind Zadorov
11. Rasmus Ristolainen (13.71) – although he loses out to Wennberg on aggregate he beats him head-to-head; low scores from THN and McK are at odds with my other sources
12. Bo Horvat (13.86) – he also loses out to Wennberg on aggregate, but he has a higher threshold and head-to-head it’s a virtual dead heat; FC lowballs him (23)
13. Alexander Wennberg (13.57) – solid marks across the board with a very tight range (11-19)
14. Hunter Shinkaruk (16.71) – this is a bit of a gut feel because Lazar wins on aggregate and head-to-head, but the more professional sources see him ahead (RLR, CS, TSN, with only ISS putting Lazar just one spot up); FC ranks him in the top-ten (9)
15. Curtis Lazar (15.86) – gets one top-ten nod (THN)
16. Ryan Pulock (17.71) – pretty consistent ratings except for HP’s (30)
17. Josh Morrissey (19.29) – one of the last players to only get first-round selections, his number are hurt by TSN (28)
18. Samuel Morin (21.00) – widely varying scores (10-35), with a pair of second-round slots from ISS and FC; he’s the last player on this list with a top-ten selection (McK)
19. Adam Erne (21.57) – one second-round selection (ISS 37), while RLR puts him just outside the top-ten (11)
20. Anthony Mantha (22.43) – a second-round pick by RLR (33), TSN has him highest (15)
21. Kerby Rychel (23.43) – the last player with only first-round selections, his range is very narrow (20-28)
22. Valentin Zykov (23.57) – despite the close score with Rychel above he loses head-to-head; he does have a higher range (HP is his peak at 13), but he also has two second-round rankings (THN and McK)
23. Zachary Fucale (24.14) – the top-ranked goaltender in the draft, like Zykov above him he has two second-round selections (RLR and FC)
24. Frederik Gauthier (24.29) – a virtual dead heat with Fucale above, he still loses out head-to-head; only one second-round vote for Gauthier (RLR)
25. Andre Burakowsky (26.43) – his score is thrown off by HP (46), he has a pair of #16 picks from ISS and McK; both RLR and HP see him in the second round
26. Ryan Hartman (26.71) – boosted by RLR’s high ranking (14), he has two second-round picks (ISS and McK)
27. Robert Hagg (27.57) – a virtual dead heat with Mueller below. but RLR’s low ranking (49) is a big reason why; THN has him at 12, while ISS, HP, and the aforementioned RLR put him in the second round
28. Mirco Mueller (27.86) – wide divergence of opinions on him (16-40) with TSN, THN, and McK ranking him highly while ISS, FC, and HP have him in the second round
29. Morgan Klimchuk (32.57) – although he loses to Bowey on aggregate he has more first round selections (4) and his number is thrown off by ISS’ low ranking (47); THN and McK also see him as a second-rounder
30. J. T. Compher (34.29) – behind both Bowey and Petan on aggregate, his number is hurt by McK’s low ranking (56) whose elimination puts him ahead of the former, while I think Petan’s size is going to drop him out of the first round; Compher has three first-round rankings (RLR, ISS, and FC

There are 18 players who appear on everyone’s list with a wide divergence thereafter, but none of the potential first rounders are truly off-the-wall (which is as expected).  Honourable mentions: Madison Bowey’s score would normally have included him above.  Here are the other players who also had first round selections (a total of 13 players):
Four (1): Nic Petan (HP, FC, ISS, RLR)
Three (3): Chris Bigras (HP, McK, ISS), Emile Poirer (RLR, McK, HP), Ian McCoshen (THN, ISS, McK)
Two (5): Madison Bowey (HP, ISS), Steve Santini (ISS, RLR), Jacob de la Rose (TSN, THN), Michael McCarron (ISS, THN), Tommy Vannelli (RLR, McK)
One (4): Shea Theodore (FC), Dillon Heatherington (ISS), Connor Hurley (FC), William Carrier (RLR)
Bowey (at 15 from HP) is the highest ranking among the players not included in my first round list.  The biggest outlier among the players is Carrier whose aggregate is well behind the others.  For CP, Pavel Buchnevich and Artturi Lehkonen are also first-rounders, while THW has Laurent Dauphin on their list.

Second Round

31. Madison Bowey (31.57) – has two first-round selections (HP with the high of 15) and handily beats everyone below head-to-head (the low is THN at 44)
32. Nic Petan (33.14) – the pint-sized prospect has four-first round picks (HP has the high of 25), but I think his second round score is correct as smaller players almost always slide in the draft (McK with the low of 46)
33. Chris Bigras (34.71) – handily ahead of the players behind him, has three first-round picks (HP with the high at 26; RLR the low at 48)
34. Emile Poirer (40.71)- his rating is thrown off by ISS (79); he has three-first round rankings (RLR with the high of 21)
35. Jacob de la Rose (36.86) – loses to Santini on aggregate, but beats him head-to-head; TSN and THN have his high (29) while FC has the low (53)
36. Steve Santini (36.71) – well-regarded by ISS (17) he gets a third-round slot from THN (65)
37. Ian McCoshen (43.71) – his score is thrown off by FC’s ranking (84); he’s the last player to receive three first-round picks (THN with the high of 26)
38. Michael McCarron (40.43) – loses to Theodore on aggregate, but his score is thrown by RLR (79); ISS has the high (23)
39. Tommy Vannelli (47.43) – the final player with two first-round selections (RLR with the high at 28), his score suffers from ISS (who puts him in the fourth round at 96)
40. Shea Theodore (38.57) – riding high on FC’s ranking (20), McK’s has the low (49)
41. Jason Dickinson (41.14) – gets a third-round slot from RLR (64), but otherwise comfortably fits in the second round (TSN with the high at 31)
42. Dillon Heatherington (43.14) – score is hurt by RLR (62), ISS puts him in the first round (27)
43. Laurent Dauphin (42.14) – loses on aggregate to Buchnevich, but beats him head-to-head; THN has him in the third round (66), while HP has the high (36)
44. Artturi Lehkonen (46.57) – his score is thrown off by RLR (77); THN has the high (36)
45. Pavel Buchnevich (42.00) – anomalously excluded from THN’s list, he gets a high of 34 (ISS) and a low of 76 (TSN)
46. Connor Hurley (46.86) – gets a first-round nod from FC (30) with a low from TSN (57)
47. Justin Bailey (47.57) – comfortably ahead of everyone who follows; high of 34 (THN), low of 74 (HP)
48. Zach Nastasiuk (57.43) – his score is thrown off by RLR (106); his high is 39 (THN)
49. Linus Arnesson (57.43) – his score is thrown off by FC (97); his high is 38 (McK)
50. Marc-Olivier Roy (58.57) – his number is thrown by HP’s ranking (102); has a high of 39 (RLR)
51. Tristan Jarry (53.43) – loses to Bjorkstrand on aggregate, but ahead in all the most serious sources; high of 36 (RLR), low of 68 (THN)
52. Oliver Bjorkstrand (52.00) – a high of 32 (HP), with a low of 67 (ISS and FC)
53. William Carrier (59.29) – the last player with a first round selection (RLR 25), his score is hurt by ISS (100)
54. Jimmy Lodge (53.86) – a high of 38 (FC) and a low of 68 (McK)
55. Nick Sorensen (54.71) – loses to Comrie on aggregate, but has more second-round picks (5); high of 42 (RLR), low of 71 (FC)
56. Eric Comrie (54.57) – high of 32 (THN), low of 67 (HP)
57. Nick Baptiste (57.86) – high of 45 (FC), low of 74 (TSN)
58. Marko Dano (58.86) – high of 43 (THN and McK), low of 81 (ISS)
59. Keaton Thompson (63.57) – three second-round selections with a high of 33 (FC), low of 85 (McK)
60. Brett Pesce (67.43) – three second-round selections with a high of 52 (THN), with a low of 90 (ISS)
61. Peter Cehlarik (67.80) – not picked by either THN or TSN, and a late selection for RLR (111), but he has three second-round selections (a high of 48 from HP)

Honourable mentions for the round (14): Jordan Subban (ISS, FC, McK), Eric Roy (FC, THN, McK), Zach Sanford (FC, THN, McK), and Jonathan Diaby (THN, McK, TSN), all have three second-round selections, while Ryan Fitzgerald (RLR, FC), John Hayden (ISS, FC), Philippe Desrosiers (RLR, TSN), Anthony Duclair (RLR, THN), Mike Downing (HP, TSN), Adam Tambellini (RLR, HP), Spencer Martin (THN, TSN), Hudson Fasching (ISS, THN), Ryan Kujawinski (RLR, HP), and Jan Kostalek (THN, McK) all have two second-round selections.  Twelve other players received at least one second-round pick.  CP has a number of off-the-wall second-rounders shared by no one else: Viktor Arvidsson, Cole Ully, Juuso Ikonen, Sergei Tolchinsky, Anton Slepyshev, Will Butcher, and Taylor Cammarata.

Third Round

62. Jordan Subban (67.71) – the diminutive brother of Malcolm has three second-round picks with FC having the high (54) and RLR the low (85)
63. Eric Roy (73.29) – three second-round selections, his score is thrown by HP (109), THN provides the high (54)
64. Jonathan-Ismael Diaby (75.86) – three second round slots, but his score is thrown off by RLR (126), McK’s gives the high (45)
65. Zach Sanford (75.33) – ISS does not rank him, but three second-round picks can’t be ignored; McK’s has the high (53) with HP the low (93)
66. Ryan Fitzgerald (66.14) – a high of 52 (RLR), with a low of 83 (McK)
67. Philippe Desrosiers (66.50) – beats Hayden head-to-head; high of 41 (TSN), low of a fourth-round ISS selection; THN did not include him in their list
68. Anthony Duclair (67.14) – beats Hayden head-to-head; high of 43 (RLR), low of 85 (FC)
69. John Hayden (66.29) – loses on both above players head-to-head; high of 43 (ISS), low of 82 (HP)
70. Adam Tambellini (69.57) – despite losing to Downing on aggregate he beats him head-to-head; high of 50 (RLR), low of 93 (ISS)
71. Mike Downing (69.00) – high of 51 (HP), low of 94 (ISS)
72. Spencer Martin (70.00) – high of 55 (TSN), low of 89 (FC)
73. Ryan Kujawinski (71.71) – less erratic rankings than Fasching; 59 (RLR) is his high, while 73 (McK) is his low
74. Hudson Fasching (71.00) – rankings all over the place, from RLR’s (105) to ISS (40)
75. Jan Kostalek (83.71) – the last player with two second-round rankings; high of 59 (THN and McK), low of 110 (HP)
76. Yan-Pavel Laplante (77.00) – among the last players ranked by all sources; high of 59 (ISS), low of 92 (FC)
77. Carl Dahlstrom (90.29) – second last player to appear on all lists, ISS’ ranking (150) throws his number out of whack; highest rating from THN (61)
78. Niklas Hansson (89.67) – ranking is thrown by ISS (128), FC and HP have his high (69); he gets no ranking from TSN
79. Nick Moutrey (82.50) – benefits from a high HP rating (49); McK’s has the low (109); TSN does not rank him
80. Jackson Houck (80.67) – his score is inflated by RLR (40); his low is HP (116) while TSN does not rank him
81. Gustav Olofsson (67.00) – despite the high aggregate score he has no second-round selections; high of 63 (HP, McK, TSN), low of 80 (THN)
82. Remi Elie (98.29) – he beats Paquin-Boudreau head-to-head; HP has the high (45), while FC buries him (173)
83 Gabryel Paquin-Boudreau (95.29) – appears in all sources, but just an “honourable mention” from TSN; wildly varied rankings (high of 61 from RLR, low of 124 from ISS and HP)
84. Matt Buckles (103.33) – his number is thrown off by HP (192); he’s not included by TSN; FC has the high (61)
85. Juuse Saros (96.40) – an undersized goaltender who could fall further (Jean Auren, CSE #4 last year, did not get picked); not selected by THN or TSN; high of 71 (HP), low of the fifth round (ISS)
86. Victor Crus-Rydberg (98.50) – ratings all over the place, from 59 (HP) to 147 (RLR); not part of TSN’s list
87. Wilhelm Westlund (120.40) – RLR doesn’t like him (250), but has three third-round selections (ISS with the high of 63); not picked by TSN or THN
88. Michael Wheaton (108.50) – three third-round selections, but loses to Westlund head-to-head; high of 66 (ISS), low of 139 (RLR); not picked by TSN
89. Lucas Wallmark (113.67) – has a second-round (ISS 50) and two third-round selections; score is hurt by RLR (278); not picked by TSN
90. Rushan Rafikov (113.00) – last player with three third-round selections; high of 81 (THN), a low of 196 (RLR); neither TSN nor THN included him
91. Greg Chase (98.00) – the next player on aggregate; high of 70 (RLR), low of 114 (McK); not picked by THN or TSN

Honourable mentions (12): Mason Geertsen (THN, McK), Sven Andrighetto (HP, THN), Gustav Possler (FC, HP), Anthony Florentino (ISS, FC), Stephen Harper (ISS, THN), Will Butcher (RLR, ISS), and Austin Lotz (ISS, McK) all have two third-round selections, while Carter Verhaeghe (ISS), Eamon McAdam (ISS), Gage Ausmus (ISS), Rinat Valiev (RLR), Kayle Doetzel (ISS), and Pavel Koledov (HP) all have a single second-round selection.  Most of CP’s off the wall second-rounders remain as well.

Fourth Round

[Only one of TSN's honourable mentions remains to be listed;  THN's list only goes a little way into the fourth so I haven't noted when a player was not selected by them.]

92. Mason Geertsen (99.50) – a high of 74 (THN) and a low of 117 (HP)
93. Gage Ausmus (111.50) – rankings all over the place, from a low of 50 (ISS) to a high of 178 (FC)
94. Carter Verhaeghe (102.80) – although lower than Andrighetto on aggregate, for a variety of factors (expressed below) I see him ahead; his high is 52 (ISS) while his low is 112 (RLR and HP)
95. Sven Andrighetto (102.00) – an older, smaller player, he could slide much further; a high of 76 (McK) to a low of 147 (ISS); FC does not list him
96. Anthony Florentino (114.00) – two third-round selections, with the high 77 (ISS) and the low 179 (RLR)
97. Stephen Harper (114.33) – among the few players left picked by six sources, his high is 78 (ISS), his low 166 (RLR)
98. Gustav Possler (111.25) – second last player with two third-round selections, he was not ranked by RLR; high of 82 (FC) and low of 105 (ISS)
99. Will Butcher (119.60) – the undersized American is the second last player with two third-round selections; high of 69 (RLR) to a low of 137 (HP)
100. Anton Cederholm (107.20) – the Swede inexplicably goes unranked by RLR, but appears in five sources nonetheless; high of 89 (HP), low of 134 (FC)
101. J. C. Lipon (103.80) – the overager comes out next on aggregate; high of 91 (ISS), low of 146 (HP)
102. Kurt Etchegary (110.50) – ranked by all six remaining sources, 89 (THN) is his high, 130 (ISS) the low
103. Eamon McAdam (106.20) – among the last player with a second-round placement (ISS), his rankings are all over the place (HP the low at 144)
104. Jared Hauf (110.40) – next on aggregate, high of 86 (ISS), low of 119 (FC)
105. Sean Malone (110.80) – HP is not a fan (160), but his other rankings are very consistent (RLR the high at 92)
106. Vincent Dunn (111.50) – appears in all six sources with a high of 87 (THN) and a low of 130 (RLR)
107. Ben Harpur (112.50) – not ranked by McK, he has a high of 84 (ISS) and a low of 136 (RLR)
108. Cole Cassels (120.83) – one of the last players in all six sources he has a wide range, with an 84 (THN) and a low of 133 (RLR)
109. Bogdan Yakimov (108.20) – hurt by his RLR score (148) and has the Russian factor hanging over him; HP has the high (81)
110. Austin Lotz (131.20) – the last player with two third-round rankings, his high is 88 (ISS and McK), his low 191 (HP)
111. Tyler Lewington (133.33) – second last player in all six sources he also has a wide range of rankings, with a 90 (McK) high to a 179 (ISS) low
112. Brendan Harms (123.40) – the best score among players with a third-round and at least two fourth-round selections; high of 81 (FC), low of 202 (HP); not picked by ISS
113. Avery Peterson (126.20) – also has a third (78 RLR) and two fourths; low of 176 (HP)
114. Jesse Lees (126.75) – as above; his score is thrown off by HP (197), the high is RLR (86); not picked by McK
115. Tyler Bertuzzi (127.20) – the last player with both a third and two fourths, his score takes a hit from RLR (172); high is 87 (ISS)
116. Jeremy Gregoire (128.17) – the final player listed by six sources, THN is the high (92), while RLR is the low (162)
117. Nicholas Paul (116.75) – high of 82 (ISS), low of 142 (RLR); not ranked by McK
118. Jake Guentzel (118.0) – undersized, he gets a high of 74 (FC) and a low of 151 (ISS)
119. Viktor Arvidsson (114.25) – could fall right out of the draft as an overage, undersized forward; high of 65 (FC) and low of 153 (RLR); not ranked by HP
120. Sergey Stetsenko (91.00) – only picked by two sources (RLR 67, ISS 115), but they are the stronger sources; THW has him at 167
121. Colby Cave (127.25) – three fourth-round selections; a high of 112 (ISS), a low of 165 (FC); HP does not list him

Honourable mentions: a large number of single third round selections remain, so rather than list them all I’ll note the three second-round picks still outstanding (Rinat Valiev (RLR), Kayle Doetzel (ISS), and Pavel Koledov (HP)), as well as high aggregate players who have not yet appeared because they are selected by only two sources: Jaimen Yakubowski (RLR, FC), Blaine Byron (RLR, McK), and Atte Makinen (ISS, HP).  Most of CP’s unique second-rounders also still remain.

Fifth Round

[One TSN selection remains along with a handful from THN; McK's dwindles as well so I haven't noted their non-selections.]

122. Dylan Labbe (119.25) – beats Brodzinski head-to-head; high of 79 (FC), low of 146 (RLR)
123. Michael Brodzinski (119.00) – RLR is high on him (63), while HP is not (174); ISS and McK’s don’t list him
124. Cole Ully (119.75) – high of 91 (McK), low of 155 (FC); ISS doesn’t list him
125. Matt Murphy (121.75) – high of 72 (RLR), low of 157 (HP)
126. Tyler Motte (130.80) – third round selection for ISS (80) as he is for CP (74); undersized player gets a 177 from HP
127. Myles Bell (122.00) – his third trip through the draft, the converted defensemen gets a high of 102 (ISS) and a low of 147 (FC); HP does not rank him
128. Alexandre Belanger (120.33) – goaltender gets a third-round nod from ISS with a 162 from HP; FC does not rank him
129. Greg Betzold (122.00) – not ranked by RLR, but gets a 72 from HP; 200 from ISS
130. Roberts Lipsbergs (131.00) – overager gets two fourth-round nods; high of 96 (RLR), low of 171 (FC)
131. Martin Reway (131.67) – undersized player also has two fourth-round picks; high of 102 (RLR), low of 175 (HP); FC did not rank him
132. Evan Cowley (134.00) – two fourth-round rankings; high of 112 (McK), low of 183 (HP); RLR does not rank him
133. Fredrik Bergvik (131.67) – two fourth-round picks; McK with the high (117), FC the low (160); ISS and HP don’t rank him
134. Eric Locke (136.00) – another overage player with two-fourth round selections; high of 98 (RLR), low of 200 (HP); ISS does not rank him
135. Jean-Sebastien Dea (136.25) – final player with two fourth-round picks; high of 101 (FC), low of 179 (HP)
136. Rinat Valiev (120.00) – RLR loves him (58), but his other rankings aren’t remarkable (ISS with the low, 159); FC doesn’t rank him
137. Kayle Doetzel (123.60) – ISS is a big fan (60), but all the rest of his numbers are in the fifth round (RLR with the low at 165)
138. Blaine Byron (101.50) – only appears in two sources (RLR gives him 84, McK 119)
139. Jaimen Yakubowski (99.00) – FC likes the overage, undersized player (90), but RLR is the only other source to rank him (108)–that includes CS and CP (but not THW who have him at 158)
140. Marcus Hogberg (123.25) – a third-round pick from McK (71), RLR and FC slot him in the fifth (159 from RLR); ISS does not rank him, but he’s the last player TSN includes
141. Teemu Kivihalme (126.00) – a third-rounder for HP (78), he fits into this round for everyone else (low of 149 from ISS)
142. Calvin Petersen (123.25) – Mck has the high (95), with RLR (140) the low; ISS doesn’t rank him
143. Evan Allen (133.20) – RLR is very high on him (68), but he’s pummelled by HP’s 178
144. Kyle Burroughs (133.00) – RLR has the high (89), with FC the low (142); HP doesn’t rank him
145. Atte Makinen (118.50) – HP slots him at 96, while ISS has him at 141; RLR and FC don’t rank him
146. Nikolai Glukhov (125.00) – both ISS and HP have him at 125, but RLR and FC don’t rank him
147. Ryan Graves (131.67) – universally picked in the fifth round (RLR high at 122, FC the low at 138); HP doesn’t rank him
148. Juuso Ikonen (135.20) – a third-round selection for HP (79), FC has him in the sixth (167)
149. Sergei Tolchinsky (136.40) – undersized player is an RLR favourite (71), while ISS has him at 173
150. Dominik Kubalik (139.00) – ISS has him in the third-round (83), while FC puts him at 197
151. Markus Soberg (147.75) – wildly varied opinions, with ISS (61) at the high end and RLR (238) on the low; HP doesn’t rank him

Honourable mentions: Pavel Koledov (HP) is the only second-round selection still outstanding; Filip Sandberg (THN), Connor Clifton (HP), Robin Norell (ISS), Andrei Mironov (ISS), Anton Slepyshev (RLR), Jeff Corbett (HP), Alexander Henriksson (RLR), Keegan Kanzig (ISS), Joose Antonen (HP), Luke Johnson (ISS), Brian Pinho (HP), Blake Heinrich (FC), and Amil Krupic (McK) are the remaining players with a third-round ranking.

Sixth Round

152. Connor Clifton (139.80) – a high of 86 (HP) with a low of 170 (FC)
153. Andrei Mironov (141.00) – a high of 72 (ISS), a low of 193 (RLR); Russian factor can’t be ignored
154. Connor Rankin (142.50) – generally thought of as a fifth rounder; high of 129 (RLR), low of 166 (HP)
155. Alexander Henriksson (147.50) – wide range, with an 81 from RLR and a 189 from FC (ISS does not rank him)
156. Taylor Cammarata (144.00) – pint-sized forward gets a 115 from HP, but a 176 from ISS
157. Tyler Hill (147.75) – a high of 124 (RLR), low of 164 (HP)
158. Brent Pedersen (152.25) – little-regarded by RLR (185), he tops out with HP (135)
159. Marc McNulty (154.40) – listed by five sources, his high is 99 (McK), to a low of 190 (HP)
160. Luke Johnson (164.40) – suffers from RLR’s 274, his high is 62 (ISS)
161. Brody Silk (167.50) – FC is a fan (128), but RLR is not (203)
162. Nolan De Jong (168.00) – ISS see’s him in the fourth-round (111), but RLR isn’t a fan (198)
163. Spenser Jensen (169.00) – suffers from RLR’s 253; high is ISS’ 92
164. Blake Heinrich (171.00) – RLR isn’t a fan (261), but FC has him in the third-round (FC)
165. Brendan Burke (180.60) – gets a fourth-round nod from ISS, but RLR buries him (264)
166. David Pope (182.80) – high of 103 (McK), low of 294 (RLR); he’s the final five-source player
167. Robin Norell (140.00) – wide range over the three sources who include him; 70 from ISS, 202 from RLR; FC does not rank him; CP has him at 141
168. Jerret Smith (144.00) – from a high of 131 (FC) to a low of 161 (RLR)
169. Jeff Corbett (144.67) – bit of an odd duck, with an 85 from HP, a 92 from McK, but the only other ranking is RLR’s 257
170. Ty Stanton (147.00) – high of 116 (McK), low of 164 (RLR); ISS and FC don’t include him; CS has him at 78
171. Kyle Platzer (150.00) – high of 101 (HP), low of 213 (RLR); FC does not rank him; CP has him at 151
172. Wiley Sherman (151.25) – high of 118 (HP), low of 192 (FC); not ranked by ISS
173. Mackenzie Weegar (153.67) – RLR gives the overager a 95, while ISS puts him at 198; FC does not rank him
174. Trevor Murphy (154.00) – undersized player gets a 97 from THN (one of the last players in their list remaining), while ISS puts him at 191; FC does not rank him
175. Keegan Kanzig (156.50) – from an ISS third-rounder (74) to RLR putting him as the last pick in the draft (211); FC does not rank him
176. Maxime Gravel (163.25) – RLR buries him (258), while ISS has him in the fourth-round (114); HP does not rank him; CP puts him in the fourth round (115)
177. Louis-Philip Guindon (163.33) – an ISS fifth-rounder to RLR’s 180; FC and HP do not rank him
178. Jackson Whistle (163.67) – high of 135 (RLR) to a low of 186 (FC); ISS and HP don’t rank him
179. Macoy Erkamps (173.33) – high of 127 (RLR) to a low of 206 (FC); ISS does not rank him
180. Gabe Guertler (176.33) – undersized prospect gets a 167 from RLR, but a 183 from ISS; HP does not rank him
181. Hunter Garlent (189.25) – pint-sized player is one of the last with three sources putting him in the draft; high of 173 (HP) to a low of 247 (RLR)

Honourable mentions: I focussed on players who had the most selections above, so many players picked by just two sources are on the outside looking in.  The highest ranked are: Filip Sandberg, Ruslan Pedan, Erik Bradford, Eddie Ellis, Anton Slepyshev, Vyacheslav Leschenko, Antoine Bibeau, Emil Djuse, Anthony DiFruscia, Clint Lewis, and Dmitry Yudin.

Seventh Round

[At this stage I'll just list all sources who rank a player and reference non-aggregate sources for context.]

182. Filip Sandberg (139.00) – listed by THN and HP; THW 210, CP 82, CS 37
183. Emil Djuse (155.00) – listed by RLR, FC, and McK; THW 144, CP 98, CS 22
184. Amil Krupic (188.33) – a third-rounder for McK, RLR has him out of the draft (313); ISS also ranks him; CP 173, CS 102
185. Joose Antonen (163.33) – a third-rounder for HP (90), RLR has him out of the draft (260); ISS also ranks him; THW 151, CP 152, CS 51
186. Erik Bradford (139.50) – listed by HP and RLR; THW 163, CP 203, CS 145
187. Eddie Ellis (141.00) – listed by FC and RLR; CP 208
188. Vyacheslav Leschenko (147.00) – listed by RLR and HP; THW 179, CP 180, CS 32
189. Antoine Bibeau (148.50) – listed by RLR and HP; the overage goaltender is well-liked by CS (9)
190. Anthony DiFruscia (158.00) – listed by RLR and ISS; CS 197
191. Clint Lewis (159.50) – listed by ISS and RLR; CP 182, CS 181
192. Dmitry Yudin (160.50) – listed by HP and ISS; CS 41
193. Ruslan Pedan (139.50) – listed by FC and RLR, but warrants no mention from either CS or CP
194. Brian Pinho (169.33) – third-rounder for HP (80), while RLR has him out of the draft (241); FC also ranks him; THW 124, CS 109
195. Miles Liberati (173.67) – a fourth-rounder for HP (107), RLR has him out of the draft (221); FC also ranks him; THW 183, CP 197, CS 150
196. Tim Bender (185.67) – hurt by RLR (245), he gets a fourth-round nod from HP (105); FC also ranks him; THW 173, CS 108
197. Josh Burnside (169.00) – fourth-round from ISS (117), out of the draft from RLR (254); HP also ranks him; THW 186, CP 181, CS 123
198. Alex Fotinos (203.33) – hurt by RLR (298); fourth-rounder for ISS; FC also ranks him
199. Jordan Maletta (195.67) – like so many he’s hurt by his RLR score (268); FC has him at 126; ISS also ranks him
200. Tobias Liljendahl (197.33) – as above, with RLR (297) and HP (138); ISS also ranks him; CS 101
201. Patrik Bartosak (166.00) – overage goaltender is ranked by HP and RLR; THW has him at 153; CP 221, CS 8
202. Tyler Kelleher (175.00) – ranked by RLR and FC; CP 97
203. Jaedon Descheneau (177.00) – ranked by RLR and FC; CP 154
204. Zach Hall (190.33) – overager hurt by RLR (230), gets a 149 from HP; ISS also ranks him; CP 102, CS 158
205. Parker Reno (167.50) – RLR and ISS rank him; CP 218, CS 140
206. Frederik Tiffels (168.50) – ISS and HP rank him; CP 227
207. Ross Olsson (168.50) – RLR and HP rank him; CP 249, CS 186
208. Vinni Letteri (172.00) – diminutive player is ranked by ISS and FC; CP 237, CS 209
209. Jayden Hart (176.50) – ranked by RLR and FC; THW has him at 166; CS 134
210. Ville Husso (177.00) – goaltender ranked by ISS and FC; THW has him at 201; CS 6
211. Zach Gilenke (187.33) – RLR has him out of the draft (215), but ISS puts him in the sixth round (162); FC also ranks him; CS 160

Honourable mentions: Anton Slepyshev is the highest rated player who does not appear above–I left him out because unless he’s changed his mind about coming to North America he will remain undrafted just like last year.  Tommy Veilleux is the only other player who appears in three sources (all his selections were in the seventh round).  Eight other players had at least two sources that put them in the draft that did not make my cut.  Here are their scores (including the aforementioned pair):
Anton Slepyshev (142.25)
Stephen Nosad (180.50)
Tim McGauley (187.00)
Timotej Sille (188.00)
Tucker Poolman (189.00)
Andrei Sigarev (190.00)
Ryan Segalla (193.50)
Tommy Veilleux (194.33)
Luca Fazzini (199.00)
Michael Giugovaz (213.33)
Here are the highest ranked players excluded from my list (including the non-aggregate sources, excluding the above where applicable):
Ebbe Sionas (2 CS) – no one else ranked the goaltender
Luka Gracnar (3 CS) – as above
Ivan Bocharov (5 CS) – as above
Fabio Hogger (27 CS) – no one else ranked him
Victor Ohman (29 CS) – undersized forward was also ranked 167 HP, 166 CP, and 175 THW
Pavel Koledov (53 HP) – CP was the only other source to rank the Russian defender (228)
Anthony Louis (77 CP) – only THW (187) also has the 5’6 forward on their list
Arturs Kuzmenkovs (81 CP) – no one else has the overage defender ranked
Miro Aaltonen (86 CP) – FC (127) and CS (40) also have the overage forward ranked
Jan Stencel (88 CP) – other than CS (44) no one else ranked the diminutive Czech defender
Ahti Oksanen (92 CP) – no one else ranked the overage NCAA blueliner
Connor Crisp (97 HP) – no one else ranked the big forward
Ty Ganley (98 HP) – CP (206) and CS (166) also ranked the blueliner
Ben Betker (99 THN) – other than CS (147) no one else ranked the rugged blueliner
Daniel Nikandrov (99 HP) – CS (135) and THW (199) were the only other sources to rank the defensively-minded forward
Matt Needham (99 THW) – ISS (123) and RLR (265) are the other sources who rank the diminutive forward
Dean Kukan (100 CP) – no one else has the overage blueliner making the cut
Victor Baldayev (103 ISS) – CS (47) was the only other source to rank the Russian defender
Arvid Lundberg (111 McK) – no one else ranked the Swedish defender
Vladislav Lysenko (116 FC) – no one else had the Russian defender make the cut
Troy Josephs (120 ISS) – no one else had the overager make the cut
Also not included are some older Europeans who are still eligible for the draft (cited by RLR): Viktor Antipin, Mattias Janmark Nylen, and Tomas Nosek.

My list consists of 118 forwards, 74 defensemen, and 19 goaltenders; 121 are from the CHL, 46 from US leagues, and 44 from European leagues.  RLR has the strongest feelings throughout the draft, but these impact the latter rankings the most.  This is not a new trend and predictively they were the best among my sources last year–we’ll see if that continues.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

6 Comments

  1. Wow….this is amazing work.

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