-As expected, Jared Cowen re-signed with Sens, inking a four-year deal with a 3.1 cap hit. It’s a reasonable deal for both sides (I agree with Travis Yost that the money is largely based on projection rather than his body of work) and suits the Sens internal budget as his numbers essentially replace Chris Phillips’ once the Big Rig is gone.
-I missed yesterday’s pre-season game against Winnipeg (a 3-1 win for Ottawa; here are The Raaymaker‘s thoughts along with a few comments from Yost), but caught some of the post-game on The Team 1200 and was struck by a line Paul MacLean gave that Yost wound up Tweeting afterwards:
Smith and Condra very good .. Kassian didn’t hurt us at all
That’s the bar for Kassian–not that he helped the team, not that he was an asset, simply that he didn’t hurt the team. That, folks, is the essence of a modern enforcer in today’s NHL.
He [Petersson] indicated to me that watching the call-ups that came up and got a chance to play important roles here (last year) was a big message to him. “(He said) ‘I just want a chance to do that, too.” I said to him, injuries and your performance have really not allowed us to benefit from drafting you. He told me that he was going to do everything in his power to get ready for this year, come to camp and show us that he was a player. And he’s done that, for the most part. The other question I had was, what happens if you don’t make the team. Are you going to sulk? Are you going to go down there and complain about not getting a chance? He said ‘absolutely not.’ Whatever decision is made at the time, he will live with. but he wants to prove to us that he’s legitimate, and going to be an NHL player down the road. And he looks like an NHL player, there’s no doubt about it.
Petersson himself said:
I just want to get off to a good start this season, show my best to the management. I don’t know where I’m at right now. I feel on the ice I’m way better than I was last year, in the beginning. Now I know I can take a hit, and I can skate 100%. I’ll take it from there. I feel this is a new start for me, this year. I feel like I know what I’ve got to do, to be as skilled as I can be.
What’s interesting to me about all this (beyond the obvious) is how quickly management can sour on a player. He was second on the team in scoring in 11-12 as a rookie and received an NHL call-up that season, but clearly there were some underlying issues that belied the numbers which made it easy for Murray to dismiss him after his injury-shortened year. I think Petersson‘s main issues going forward are his defensive work and producing consistently–he’ll never be a fourth-line player so has to produce enough to play in the top-nine.
-THN has slowly and painfully previewing the entire league and finally reached Ottawa, predicting them to finish third in their division. Here’s their reasoning:
Despite serious injuries to cornerstone players Erik Karlsson, Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek, the Senators surprised much of the hockey world last season with a stellar performance. All three of those contributors have pronounced themselves healthy for this year – and they will get to play alongside former Ducks winger Bobby Ryan, Ottawa’s big summertime addition, as well as improving youngsters Kyle Turris and Mika Zibanejad. The Sens also signed former Leafs winger Clarke MacArthur to improve their depth on the wing, especially in the wake of Daniel Alfredsson’s shocking departure for Detroit. But perhaps the biggest reason to like Ottawa’s chances (other than their coach and last season’s Jack Adams winner Paul MacLean) is their quality of goaltending. With veteran Craig Anderson and youngster Robin Lehner patrolling their pipes, the Sens arguably have the best one-two punch in the league and could use one of them in a mid-season trade to improve their fortunes in another area.
The loss of former captain Alfredsson could lead to a leadership and/or emotional void in the Sens’ dressing room, but the bigger concern for Ottawa lies in the health of the stars who missed large amounts of time last season. Of the three, Spezza’s health is most worrisome; he’s missed at least 20 games in three of the past four seasons, is now 30 years old and coming off surgeries to his knee and back. Compounding that issue is the internal salary cap ceiling Sens owner Eugene Melnyk has placed on his franchise. If there’s ever a need for an injury replacement, GM Bryan Murray will be forced to look within the organization. And after the Ryan trade that sent Jacob Silfverberg and Stefan Noesen to Anaheim, there’s less depth for him to lean on.
Last year, Ottawa excelled despite the fact all of its key players were hit with the injury bug. Because of this, it’s hard to say if the Sens would still have been a playoff team after 82 games. Surely they couldn’t deal as well with that much bad luck again – and in a different format that provides stiff intra-division competition no less. The big guys have to stay healthy, namely new captain Spezza. If they do, Ottawa could prove itself a force.
There’s not much analysis here (it’s mostly a summary of what’s happened), but THN echoes a common them that the Sens should benefit from coaching (something I think has limited value in terms of wins and losses) and goaltending. I don’t think Anderson‘s goaltending numbers from last season are sustainable, but the position is a strength. I put no stock at all in the Sens suffering from an “emotional void” in the absence of Alfredsson, but injuries are a major concern and anyone who thinks that either Spezza or Michalek are going to play full seasons are delusional (each has only managed one in their last four). I disagree that Ottawa has shed too much depth in acquiring Ryan, but they don’t have a player of Silfverberg‘s caliber to call-up this season.
-ESPN ranks goaltenders (via unnamed “experts” grading them from 1 to 10) and Craig Anderson is 7th, behind Henrik Lundqvist, Jonathan Quick, Tuukka Rask, Sergei Bobrovsky (!), Pekka Rinne, and Jimmy Howard.
-Ottawa named Jason Spezza as their new captain. The captaincy is not something I get worked up about, but it provided a ton of fodder around the blogosphere.
-Travis writes a long and engaging look at Marc Methot‘s Corsi numbers in the context of both a conversation with the player and the larger context of the numbers themselves (compared to a team’s overall numbers, his partners, and his matchups).
-Here’s my updated look at CHL and CIS NHL success stories.
-JP Nikota does a great job of illustrating how simple stats (time of possession) correlate to Corsi and Fenwick (he’s doing it in a Leafs context, but it’s well worth reading). He concludes:
it looks as though Fenwick and Corsi numbers mirror TOA so closely that it’s no longer really worth tracking
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)