The Hockey News 2013 NHL Draft Guide

The Hockey News‘ NHL draft preview is out on the stands for a bit and I thought I would take a look at it (here is my preview of THN last year and here is a look at the success of their prognostication).  For the sake of comparison I’ve bracketed the differences from ISS’ latest rankings (which can be found here, keeping in mind ISS ranks goaltenders separately and NR simply means the player is not in ISS’ top-30).  This is not a comprehensive guide (like Red Line Report), instead being like McKeen’s in offering a top-100 list.

1 – Seth Jones – D – Portland – WHL
2 – Jonathan Drouin – F – Halifax – QMJHL (3)
3 – Nathan MacKinnon – C – Halifax – QMJHL (2)
4 – Elias Lindholm – C – Brynas – SweE (7)
5 – Valery Nichushkin – F – Chelyabinsk Chelmet – RusS (4)
6 – Aleksander Barkov – F – Tappara – FinE (5)
7 – Sean Monahan – C – Ottawa – OHL (9)
8 – Darnell Nurse – D – S.S. Marie – OHL (6)
9 – Lazar, Curtis – C – Edmonton – WHL (12)
10 – Ryan Pulock – D – Brandon – WHL (14)
11 – Alexander Wennberg – C – Djurgarden – SweJr (NR) (15)
12 – Robert Hagg – D – Modo – SweJE (NR)
13 – Adam Erne – LW – Quebec – QMJHL (NR)
14 – Nikita Zadorov – D – London – OHL (8)
15 –Max Domi – C – London – OHL (25)
16 –Bo Horvat – C – London – OHL (NR) (10)
17 – Andre Burakowsky – F – Malmo – SweAl (16)
18 – Mirco Mueller – D – Prince Albert – WHL (NR)
19 – J. T. Morrissey – D – Prince Albert – WHL (21)
20 – Samuel Morin – D – Rimouski – QMJHL (30)
21 – Kerby Rychel – F – Windsor – OHL (20)
22 – Rasmus Ristolainen – D – TPS Turku – FinE (11)
23 – Hunter Shinkaruk – F – Medicine Hat – WHL (13)
24 – Anthony Mantha – LW – QMJHL (23)
25 – Zachary Fucale – G – Halifax – QMJHL (n/a)
26 – Ian McCoshen – D – Waterloo – USHL (NR)
27 – Michael McCarron – RW – USNDP – USHL (28)
28 – Ryan Hartman – RW – OHL (NR)
29 – Jacob de la Rose – C – Leksand – SweAl (NR)
30 – Frederik Gauthier – C – Rimouski – QMJHL (18)

Just like last year Adam Proteau writes an uninspired blurb about the Senators.  After praising the Sens’ system he says they still need scoring forwards and defensemen (I’m not sure who doesn’t, but fair enough), although he calls the Sens blueline “old” which only applies to two members of their blueline (and therefore their blueline isn’t really old).  He also thinks that Eric Gryba is the only right-handed blueliner in the organisation (somehow missing Cody Ceci among others).  The only prospect named that isn’t already on the NHL roster is Mark Stone and Proteau ends the short piece by bringing up Alexandre Daigle as if that has any relevance whatsoever (different era, different GM, different organisation).

There’s a marked difference in prospect assessment by THN, which is interesting, but not compelling in and of itself (it might be if their accuracy was better).  The guide is inexpensive and easily available and offers very brief scouting reports on their top-60 prospects.  It’s a useful product for casual fans, but there’s n0t nearly enough meat or insight for those with a serious interest in the draft.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 23, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: May 16th

-Judging by how the Sens practiced today it seems like Andre Benoit will slide in to replace Eric Gryba.  There was no chance Mike Lundin would play (in my estimation).

-Travis Yost breaks down the Sens lackadaisical powerplay and talks about their poor tendencies.  It’s a very good piece and I highly recommend it.  Travis then makes the case for the Sens to have a chance in the series and I think of the two elements he discusses (goaltending and avoiding penalties) only the former is realistic and it really will rest on the shoulders of Craig Anderson for Ottawa to take the series.  Unfortunately for the Sens goaltender, his sample against Pittsburgh this season is not encouraging.

-Mark Parisi tries to find positives from the Sens loss by comparing it to their opening loss to the Rangers last year.  While there are some surface similarities, the Penguins are not the Rangers so it doesn’t seem particularly apt to me.

-ISS has released its latest 2013 draft rankings (for their previous list go here):

Rank Name Pos. Birthdate Shot H W Team League Last Rank
1 Seth Jones D 10/3/94 R 6.03.5 208 Portland WHL 1
2 Nathan MacKinnon C 9/1/95 R 6.00 182 Halifax QMJHL 3
3 Jonathan Drouin LW 3/27/95 L 5.10.75 185 Halifax QMJHL 4
4 Valeri Nichushkin RW 3/4/95 L 6.04 202 Chelyabinsk Traktor KHL 2
5 Sasha Barkov C 9/2/95 L 6.03 209 Tappara FinE 5
6 Darnell Nurse D 2/4/95 L 6.03.5 189 Sault Ste. Marie OHL 6
7 Elias Lindholm C 12/2/94 R 6.00 192 Brynas SweE 8
8 Nikita Zadorov D 4/15/95 L 6.05.25 230 London OHL 7
9 Sean Monahan C 10/12/94 L 6.02 186 Ottawa OHL 9
10 Bo Horvat C 4/5/95 L 6.00.25 200 London OHL 10
11 Rasmus Ristolainen D 10/27/94 R 6.04 207 TPS Turku FinE 11
12 Curtis Lazar C 2/2/95 R 5.11.75 193 Edmonton WHL 12
13 Hunter Shinkaruk C 10/13/94 L 5.11 175 Medicine Hat WHL 13
14 Ryan Pulock D 10/6/94 R 6.00.5 211 Brandon WHL 14
15 Alexander Wennberg C 9/22/94 L 6.01.5 190 Djurgarden SweJE 15
16 Andre Burakowsky LW 2/9/95 L 6.01.5 178 Malmo SweAl 18
17 Steve Santini D 3/7/95 R 6.01.5 207 USA Under-18 NTDP 22
18 Frederik Gauthier C 4/26/95 L 6.05 210 Rimouski QMJHL 20
19 Valentin Zykov RW 5/15/95 R 6.00 210 Baie-Comeau QMJHL 16
20 Kerby Rychel LW 10/7/94 L 6.01 200 Windsor OHL 17
21 Josh Morrissey D 3/28/95 L 5.11.75 182 Prince Albert WHL 19
22 Madison Bowey D 4/22/95 R 6.00.75 200 Kelowna WHL 27
23 Anthony Mantha LW 9/16/94 L 6.04 190 Val d’Or QMJHL 25
24 JT Compher C 4/8/95 R 5.10.5 184 USA Under-18 NTDP 21
25 Max Domi C 3/2/95 L 5.09.25 193 London OHL 26
26 Nicolas Petan C 3/22/95 L 5.08.5 163 Portland WHL 29
27 Dillon Heatherington D 5/9/95 L 6.03 196 Swift Current WHL 37
28 Michael McCarron RW 3/7/95 R 6.05 228 USA Under-18 NTDP 62
29 Chris Bigras D 2/22/95 L 6.00.5 189 Owen Sound OHL 30
30 Samuel Morin D 7/12/95 L 6.07 200 Rimouski QMJHL 45

Robert Hagg (#23), Jason Dickinson (#24), and Ryan Hartman (#28), fell out of the top-30.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 16, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: July 18th

-The Sens re-signed Jim O’Brien to a two-year, one-way contract and also re-signed Eric Gryba to a two-year, two-way contract.  Both signings were expected, although I think the Sens did well to lock both up for two years.  Tim Murray talked about Gryba:

He made big strides last year. I thought last year, the second half of the year, on some nights he was our best defenseman in Binghamton. A huge improvement over his rookie season, so we just expect him to get better and better. I think the two years gives us an opportunity to work with him some more. I believe he can come to training camp and compete for a job at the National League level. If he doesn’t make it right out of camp, we expect him to go to Binghamton and be a leader, play hard and at least be a depth guy until he achieves his goal of becoming a full-time National League player. He hope he translates into being a big, shut-down defenseman who’s hard to play against. That’s the type of style that he is playing in Binghamton. He’s got decent skills with the puck, but I think his role will be hard to play against … I think if he’s going to have success at the NHL level, that’s the style he’s going to have to play. And that’s the style we want him to play. That’s the style that he showed us in the second half last year that he can play.

And then O’Brien:

Well, very pleased to get Jimmy signed. His agent and I had a lot of talks, and they were willing to work with us to get the one-way contract, so I think we got a deal done that suits us from a money point of view, gives him two years more in the organization, gives him a little bit of stability in that he got a one-way and gives us money that we like for our young NHL players to have — so a good contract on both sides. Jimmy made huge strides last summer, came in and battled for a job in training camp but wasn’t quite there. But again, he shows our young guys, the rest of our young guys in the organization, that if you work hard and you’re a good citizen and do what we ask you to do in Binghamton, then we certainly will call you up and give you a chance. That’s what happened to Jimmy last year, and when he got up here, he showed he belonged here. He plays a bottom six role, good faceoff guy, very good penalty killer, very good speed up and down the ice and works hard — very good work ethic. So he does have an offensive game. It’s not there yet at the National Hockey League level. But we think that that, with this new contract, gives him the next two years to refine his offensive game and still do the things that our coaching staff likes about him, and that’s do the little things right and check and win draws and very good on the PK. I think, yeah, that helped him, obviously, the championship run. He was an important guy in that run at different times, so learning how to win is never a bad thing. I think the big thing with him was getting stronger. He was a long, even skinny kid if not lean, that you knew would take more time to put on muscle and put on bulk. It has taken time, so it’s just an example of, some guys are ready right out of the draft, some guys need a year or so, and some guys need a little longer. And there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel. But he shows that if you stick to it and work hard, and you get the right direction, you do have a chance. He certainly has put in the time, and hopefully the improvement just continues to go on

Murray is spot in describing both players.  I don’t think O’Brien has enough skill to move out of a fourth-line position, but he’s a useful player for the Sens.  Gryba likely tops out as a six or seventh defenseman assuming he can maintain a consistent level of play.

-Red Line Report‘s issue wrapping up the draft is out and offers reasons why some highly touted players were not selected, with both Anton Slepyshev and Alexei Bereglazov declaring their disinterest in coming to North American in the near future, while Dane Fox apparently has well-documented off-ice issues that scared NHL clubs away.  The issue only discussed the top-eleven teams in terms of a successful draft and Ottawa did not make the list (none of their players appear in the best or worst value pick list either).  I have to infer that they thought it was an average draft for the Sens.

July 18, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a Comment

Looking at Ottawa’s Draft Success (05-07)

Articles reviewing draft acumen proliferate at this time of year (TSN’s Scott Cullen did one recently) and as engaging as they are I’ve always had problems with the way they are defined and presented.  Examinations of the draft that cover a long period of time fail to account for the changes in the league and the draft itself, so that the comparison isn’t particularly apt.  When articles cover more recent drafts (Hockey Futures does them at five-year intervals) they are forced to make judgements on players whose futures are yet to be defined.  All this preamble is to make two key points: 1) the attitude and approach to the NHL draft changed seismically post-lockout, 2) the typical make-or-break moment for a draft pick varies depending on what league they were drafted from.  To expand on the second point: CHL draftees take about five-years to develop (allowing for two more years of junior and then the full length of their ELC); college-bound players can take six, seven, or even eight years, depending on how much time they spend in college (eg, Ben Blood was drafted in 2007, but won’t start his ELC until the fall of 2012); European players used to be even more varied when teams kept their rights forever, but with the deals signed with the DEL, SEL, and SM-Liiga (where rights are only retained for two years) their usual range is now like the CHL (five years).

Given that, how have the Sens done with their selections?  Not enough time has passed to judge many of the post-lockout drafts, but I think I can make judgements on John Muckler’s last two drafts and give some thoughts about Bryan Murray’s first.  So, without further adieu:

2005
Muckler clearly had a hard-on for international tournaments, as every player except the one still with the Sens played in those tournaments.  Pre-KHL Muckler gambled on taking Russians who slid down the draft, but only one (Zubov) ever suited up for the organisation.  It was not a great draft for the Sens by any standard.  A few stats: there are 54/230 (23.4%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 10/31, 3rd 5/30, 4th 7/34, 5th 6/36, 6th 2/31, 7th 5/36.  Players who have played over 200 games: 34 (14 1st, 6 2nd, 3 3rd, 5 4th, 2 5th, 1 6th, 3 7th); played 100-199 games: 18 (5 1st, 3 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 4 5th, 1 6th, 2 7th).  Teams that excelled: Montreal, Nashville, and Columbus each had four players make the grade, while Dallas, Detroit, the Rangers, Pittsburgh, and San Jose had three each.  Calgary, Florida, and the Islanders were the only teams to strike out.

1-9 Brian Lee (DR, US high school/USHL; WJC) – NHL (Tampa Bay); 187 NHL games played; marginal NHLer (5-6 d-man)
An enigmatic player who after five years as a professional has still not defined what kind of player he is.  He’s big, but not physical.  He makes a good first pass, but is unable to produce offensively.  He can play a limited role in the NHL, but does not dominate in the AHL.  His career, for however long it goes, will likely remain on the margins.  Many Sens fans groused about Lee because of the fantastic players taken after him (Anze Kopitar and Marc Staal), but he’s not the worst player taken in the first round (3 never played a game, 6 more played less than 50), and one can argue whether he’s better or worse than Jack Skille who was taken by Chicago at #7.  To me, the pick isn’t a complete failure, but it’s several steps removed from what it could or should have been.
3-70 Vitali Anikeyenko (DR, Russia tier-3; U-18) – deceased (Lokomotiv plane crash); bust
Other than attending one development camp (in 2005), the Sens could got a sniff of Anikeyenko, who spent the bulk of his career playing for Lokomotiv (which tragically cost him his life).  Whether he had NHL potential or not remains an open question, but judging by his KHL numbers I’d suggest he projected at best a bottom-pairing defender.  Naturally there were better picks available, including Conn Smyth winner Jonathan Quick (#72), but between his selection and the Sens next pick, only 3 (of 24) NHL regulars were selected.  The pick has to be viewed as a failure, both for the Sens inability to anticipate the problems of signing Russian players and also for not ascertaining just how interested Anikeyenko was in coming to North America.
4-95 Cody Bass (CR, OHL; U-18) – two-way contract (Columbus); 48 NHL games; AHLer
He spent four years in the Senators organisation where he helped Binghamton win the Calder Cup, but Bass remains a fringe player.  Not productive or durable enough for full-time fourth line duty in the NHL, he’s destined to bounce back and forth between leagues as a ”character guy”.  Players like him are good for their organisations.  In terms of who was available between his pick and the Sens next there was depth blueliner Chris Butler (#96) and Chris VandeVelde (#97) could become an NHLer with Edmonton.  In terms of style of play, the Sens would have been better off picking Jared Boll (#101).
4-98 Ilya Zubov (C/LW, Russia tier-2; U-18); – KHL (Moscow); 11 NHL games; AHLer
The most successful of the Russian picks, he spent two years in the organisation where he established himself as a productive AHLer.  Like Bass he probably could have stayed in North America and been an occasional call-up, but he clearly did not have the talent to become a regular NHLer.  There were 5 regular NHL players over the next 17 picks (the best is Keith Yandle at #105), so plenty of better talent was available.
4-115 Janne Kolehmainen (LW, SM-Liiga; WJC) – SM-Liiga (KalPa) - bust
The last Finn selected by the Senators, there’s never been any interest expressed by the Sens to sign the big winger, whose performance flatlined the year after he was drafted.  If there’s any solace in the wasted pick it’s that only 1 NHL regular was selected over the following 21 picks (Darren Helm at #132).
5-136 Tomas Kudelka (DL, Czech junior; U-18) – Czech Elite League (HC Vitkovice) – marginal AHLer
The second-last Czech picked by the Sens (Jakub Culek was the last), he was a solid junior player in the WHL who did not excel in his three years in the AHL.  In a lot of ways he was like a less-talented Brian Lee, as he has good size, but wasn’t overly physical and his offensive game did not translate at a higher level.  There are 5 NHL regulars over the next 50 picks (granting that enforcer Ryan Reaves could stop being regular at virtually any moment), but none of those players match the talent of those missed earlier.
6-186 Dmitri Megalinsky (DL, Russia tier-3; WJC) – KHL (Novokuznetsk) – bust
Here again the Sens can be criticised for not doing their homework, because unlike Anikeyenko (one development camp) or Zubov (two years in the AHL) they never got a sniff of Megalinsky, who became a KHL regular.  There were 2 NHL regulars selected through the next 18 picks and Sergei Kostitsyn (#200) certainly would have been a better role of the dice.  Whether Megalinsky had the chops to play in the NHL remains an unresolved, but doubtful proposition.
7-204 Colin Greening (C/LW, CISAA) – NHL (Ottawa); 106 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
The final role of the dice was the only true payoff in the draft.  I suspect Greening is the only player drafted right out of Upper Canada College.  He spent five years developing before joining the organisation and the payoff is more than could have been expected, as Greening will have a long career as a solid top-nine forward.  Two other NHL regulars came after his selection, with the best being the last (Patric Hornqvist at #230).

2006
Muckler’s last draft.  He broke his obsession with international tournament players and Russians, with all North American selections save Daugavins.  In Ottawa terms this is a much better draft with 2-4 regular NHLers coming out of it.  A few stats: there are 43/213 (20.2%) number of regular NHLers from the draft (this is based on 200+ games played and my judgement; you can judge for yourself here).  By round: 1st 19/30, 2nd 11/33, 3rd 5/30, 4th 2/30, 5th 0/30, 6th 3/30, 7th 3/30.  Players who played 200 or more games: 22 (16 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 7th), ; played 100-199 games: 15 (3 1st, 5 2nd, 2 3rd, 1 4th, 3 6th, 1 7th).  Teams that excelled: Toronto and Washington both picked four players, while Columbus and Boston picked three.  Calgary, Dallas, Nashville, New Jersey, and Tampa struck out.

1-28 Nick Foligno (LW, OHL) – NHL (Columbus); 351 NHL games – NHL regular (top-9 forward)
Arguably the second best pick of the draft from that point onward (behind Milan Lucic at #50), he also trumps a number of players taken before him (3 never played in the NHL, 5 have played fewer than 30 NHL games, he’s clearly better than James Sheppard (#9), Jiri Tlusty (#13), Trevor Lewis (#17), and the jury is still out on Michael Frolik (#10), Jonathan Bernier (#11) and Michael Grabner (14)).  Given that, he is a very successful selection despite his inability to firmly nail down a top-six role.
3-68 Eric Gryba (DR, USHL) - RFA (Binghamton) – marginal NHL prospect (5-6 D)
The big blueliner spent four full years in the NCAA before graduating and helping Binghamton to their first Calder Cup.  He was on the horizon for the NHL club coming into last season, but Mark Borowiecki has moved ahead of him on the depth chart.  There’s still NHL-potential for Gryba, but his ceiling isn’t particularly high.  Four regular NHLers were picked over the next 23 selections, with Brad Marchand (#71) the best.
3-91 Kaspars Daugavins (LW, Belarus; WJC)  - RFA (Ottawa); 66 NHL games – marginal NHL prospect (fourth-liner)
It has been a long road for the undersized forward to get to the NHL.  He spent three season in the CHL and then two more in Binghamton before becoming a regular.  His upside is limited and he could make more money in Europe, so I expect his future as a Sen will be shorter than longer.  Only two NHL regulars occur over the next 30 picks (James Reimer at #99 and Matt Beleskey at #112).
4-121 Pierre-Luc Lessard (DL, QMJHL) – CIS (Trois-Rivieres) bust
A high-scoring blueliner from the Q, he was never offered a contract and only had a cup of coffee as a pro (ECHL).  He’s a complete miss as a pick, but none of the next 30 selections have become regular NHLers.
5-151 Ryan Daniels (G, OHL) – CIS (Laurier) - bust
A rare goalie selection for the Sens, he is another player who was not offered a contract, but unlike Lessard didn’t even get that professional cup of coffee.  There are three regular NHLers over the next 30 picks, with Viktor Stalberg (#161) the most prominent.
6-181 Kevin Koopman (DR, KIJHL) - ACHA II (Brown) - bust
A prospect where the scouts did not do their homework, as Koopman retired to become a doctor before the Sens could think about offering him a contract.  Two regular NHLers were selected over the next 30 picks (with Derek Dorsett at #189 clearly the best).
7-211 Erik Condra (RW, NCAA) - NHL (Ottawa); 107 NHL games –  NHL regular (bottom-6 forward)
The third last pick of the draft, he finished up his college career, earned rookie of the year honours in Binghamton before becoming a solid attention to the regular lineup in the NHL.  Even though Condra has limited upside, to get a player this late is clearly a home run.

2007
Muckler was fired two weeks before the draft, so while this is nominally a Bryan Murray draft it’s basically following Muckler’s philosophy.  Not surprisingly, Murray traded away the team’s late round picks so that the next draft could fully follow his direction.  Not enough time has passed to truly assess how many hits and misses this draft had, but it’s a weaker draft for Ottawa (possibly worse than 2005).

1-29 Jim O’Brien (CR, NCAA; U-18) – RFA (Ottawa); 34 NHL games – marginal NHLer (fourth-liner)
After two mediocre years in the WHL and a terrible rookie season in the AHL, many thought O’Brien‘s days were numbered.  However, he turned his game around, won a Calder Cup, and did not look out of place with the Sens when called up this season.  The sample size is small, but it appears as though he can take a regular shift with the big boys, albeit in a supporting role.  Compared to the players taken before him, 6 have never played in the NHL (keeping in mind that Cherepanov tragically died), and 4 have played fewer games thus far.  Three regular NHLers were taken over the next 31 picks, with P. K. Subban (#43) the best of them.
2-60 Ruslan Bashkirov (LW, QMJHL) – VHL (Ryazan) – bust
The last Russian taken by Murray at the draft, Bashkirov is such a bust he can’t even play in the KHL.  This is the definition of a bad pick with Wayne Simmonds taken immediately after him (#61), granting that only one other (out of 30) is a definitive NHLer (Yannick Weber at #73).
3-90 Louie Caporusso (C/LW, OPJHL) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential AHLer
Despite a strong NCAA resume Caporusso struggled at the AHL level this season which is a bad sign for a college graduate.  He may have it in him to become a regular AHLer, but his NHL potential seems non-existent.  Currently there’s only 2 established NHLers taken over the next 30 picks (Alec Martinez at #95 and Matt Halischuk at #117), but 6 more seem likely to have similar status, making the pick look much worse.
4-120 Ben Blood (DL, USUS) – AHL (Binghamton) – potential marginal NHLer
There was a long wait for Blood, as he spent a year in the USHL and then four more at college before turning pro.  He has the potential to be a bruising bottom-pairing NHLer, but without significant pro experience it’s difficult to judge.  As Ottawa’s last pick in the draft he has to be compared to the rest of the selections (91 picks), where at least 6 players are either regular NHLers or on their way (the best being Jamie Benn at #129).  Given that neither Blood nor most of the rest of the players fates are set yet however, it’s hard to judge the pick.

July 2, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Reviewing the 2012 NHL Entry Draft

In what was described as a weak to average draft there was little consensus beyond the top-10 (just like in 2011).  Scouts said that little separated players ranked 11-40 and the conventional wisdom was spot on–exact predictions got hammered this year as compared to the previous two drafts.

Acronyms: EOTS (Eye on the Sens), TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), RLR (Red Line Report), THN (The Hockey News), ISS (International Scouting Service), and McK (McKeen’s)

First round
Player X at Position X
TSN 5/30
HP/FC/ISS/McK 2/30
RLR/EOTS 1/30
Players picked for the round
TSN 27/30
McK 26/30
RLR 25/30
EOTS/THN 24/30
ISS/FC/HP 22/30

Second Round
Exact Placements
TSN 2/31
EOTS/RLR/McK 1/31
Round Placements
TSN 18/31
EOTS/RLR/McK 12/31
THN 11/31
HP 10/31
ISS/FC 6/31

Third Round (minus TSN because Bob McKenzie’s list is only the top-60)
Exact
EOTS/HP 1/30
Round
RLR 8/30
EOTS/HP 7/30
FC/McK 6/30
THN 4/30
ISS 3/30

Fourth Round (minus THN because their list is only the top-100)
Exact
McK/FC 1/30
Round
McK 6/30
HP 5/30
EOTS 4/30
FC 3/30
RLR 2/30
ISS 1/30

Fifth Round (minus McK because their list is only the top-120)
Exact
Incredibly (or perhaps not), none of the sources had an exact prediction for the rest of the draft
Round
FC 6/30
EOTS 5/30
HP 4/30
ISS 3/30
RLR 1/30

Sixth Round
FC 3/30
EOTS/HP 2/30
RLR/ISS 1/30

Seventh Round
EOTS 3/30
HP/FC/ISS/RLR 2/30

All Rounds (this excludes TSN, THN, and Mckeen’s because they did not predict the entire draft):
EOTS 57/211 (27.0%)
HP 52/211 (24.6%)
RLR 51/211 (24.2%)
FC 48/211 (22.7%)
ISS 38/211 (18.0%)

This represents a 5% drop from last year for me and most of my sources (except for HP which marginally improved).  The results for ISS were particularly abysmal.  However, the business of slotting players in specific rounds doesn’t get much better than the low 30s% so to fully assess how well we picked players who would be drafted, here’s the listed players taken in the draft (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft):
EOTS 160/211 (75.8%)
RLR 156/211 (73.9%)
HP 152/211 (72.0%)
FC 150/211 (71.1%)
ISS 146/220 (70.4%) (ISS’ picks can’t be cut down to 211 because of the way they are put together)
Unranked players taken: 23 (10.9%)
Players from European leagues: 35 (16.6%)
Note: I didn’t use Corey Pronman‘s (of Hockey Prospectus) list, but his tally: 110/125 (88.0%)

This is a 5% improvement in predicting the total number of players taken compared to last year.  All the source numbers rose as well.  The most consistent predictions remain the top-100 players.  The highest ranked player who was not drafted was Russian Anton Slepyshev (ranked as a second or third rounder, #50 on my list), followed by Dane Fox (#57).  No other player went undrafted who was listed by at least six sources, but three other prospects picked by five were on the outside looking in (Cody Corbett (#102), Andrei Makarov (#107), and Marcus McIvor (#122)).  Among the unranked players selected, many were older (like Sergei Kostenko), one re-entered the draft (Frederik Andersen), but there wasn’t the usual dominance of unknown Europeans (10 of the 23 were from Europe).

Here’s the list of the highest ranked players not taken from each source (CSNA=Central Scouting North America, CSE=CS Europe, CSNAG= CSNA Goalies, CSNG=CSE Goalies):
CSNA
#46 Dane Fox
#70 Max Iafrate
#79 Devin Tringale
CSE
#10 Anton Slepyshev
#13 Vyacheslav Osnovin
#19 Erik Thorell
CSNAG
#7 Andrei Makarov
#8 Patrik Bartosak
CSE
#4 Jean Auren
#6 Mathias Israelsson
ISS skaters
#36 Anton Slepyshev
#54 Dane Fox
#66 Emil Lundberg
ISS goaltenders
#13 Joonas Toivonen
#15 Patrik Bartosak
RLR
#41 Anton Slepyshev
#44 Andrei Makarov
#45 Dane Fox
HP
#60 Dane Fox
#78 Anton Slepyshev
#93 Brett Foy
FC
#48 Anton Slepyshev
#63 Emil Lundberg
#66 Cody Corbett
McKeen’s
#60 Dane Fox
#67 Anton Slepyshev
#75 Henri Ikonen
Corey Pronman
#17 Anton Slepyshev
#42 Nathan Walker
#49 Austin Cangelosi

June 23, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Looking Back at Round One of the 2012 NHL Draft

The first round is in the books and it featured a barrage of trades along with the 30 players selected.  Here I’ll take a quick look to see how I (and my sources) did in predicting tonight’s results.  The first round is the easiest one to pick, but precise predictions (player X going at #X) are almost impossible.  In the previous two drafts the best ratio has been Bob McKenzie in 2010 (6/30, I was one behind him that year and tied for first with him in 2011, going a measly 4/30).  This year has produced lower results overall (here I’m considering TSN (Bob McKenzie), FC (Future Considerations), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospects), ISS (International Scouting Service), THN (The Hockey News), McK (McKeen’s):
TSN 5/30
HP/FC/ISS/McK 2/30
RLR/Eye on the Sens 1/30

I didn’t include Corey Pronman’s picks from Hockey Prospectus as part of my rankings, but he wound up going 3/30.

The more important thing to look at is how many players selected to be drafted in the first round actually were.  Last year I was tied with TSN for the most selections (25/30), while in 2010 I edged him out by one (26/30).  This year Bob was once again the champ and I dropped down in the pack:
TSN 27/30
McK 26/30
RLR 25/30
Eye on the Sens/THN 24/30
ISS/FC/HP 22/30
Corey Pronman 20/30

There were no truly off-the-board selections in the sense that all players picked were considered first-rounders by at least one source. Tanner Pearson was the lowest ranked player taken, but he was not the only player with only one first-round pick (Jordan Schmaltz being the other).  Henrik Samuelsson had the second least first-round selections with two.

The highest ranked players who were not selected were Matthew Finn (considered a first-rounder by everyone), Sebastien Collberg (only a second-rounder to HP), and Pontus Aberg (only a second-rounder to TSN).  No other players are near their uniformity of ranking.

Here’s the recap of the first round (correct publications in brackets):
1. Edmonton, Nail Yakupov (everyone except HP)
2. Columbus, Ryan Murray (TSN)
3. Montreal, Alex Galchenyuk (n/a)
4. New York Islanders, Griffin Reinhart (HP, TSN)
5. Toronto, Morgan Rielly (n/a)
6. Anaheim, Hampus Lindholm (n/a)
7. Minnesota, Matt Dumba (n/a)
8. Pittsburgh (from Carolina), Derrick Pouliot (n/a)
9. Winnipeg, Jacob Trouba (THN, TSN)
10. Tampa Bay, Slater Koekkoek (n/a)
11. Washington, Filip Forsberg (n/a)
12. Buffalo, Mikhail Grigorenko (TSN, HP)
13. Dallas, Radek Faksa (FC)
14. Buffalo (from Calgary), Zemgus Girgensons (n/a)
15. Ottawa, Cody Ceci (n/a)
16. Washington, Tom Wilson (n/a)
17. San Jose, Thomas Hertl (n/a)
18. Chicago, Teuvo Teravainen (n/a)
19. Tampa Bay, Andrei Vasilevski (n/a)
20. Philadelphia, Scott Laughton (n/a)
21. Calgary (from Buffalo), Mark Jankowski (n/a)
22. Pittsburgh, Olli Maatta (n/a)
23. Florida, Mike Matheson (n/a)
24. Boston, Malcolm Subban (McK)
25. St. Louis, Jordan Schmaltz (n/a)
26. Vancouver, Brendan Gaunce (n/a)
27. Phoenix, Henrik Samuelsson (ISS)
28. New York Rangers, Brady Skjei (n/a)
29. New Jersey, Stefan Matteau (n/a)
30. Los Angeles, Tanner Pearson (n/a)

I’ll have a full recap of the draft tomorrow.

June 22, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a Comment

Senators News: June 22nd

-This marks the one-year anniversary for Eye on the Sens.  Thanks to all my readers and twitter followers.  I also want to thank Black Aces‘ Jeremy Milks and Jared Crozier at Senshot for including a link to the site, Peter Raaymakers and Amelia L for occasional mentions on The Silver Seven, Owen Bourns who invited me to write for Sens Nation, the moderators at HFboards who let me post links there for awhile, and various other bloggers who have commented here over the past twelve months (Lyle Richardson from Spector’s Hockey, Ian Altenbaugh at Hockey’s Future, and worsteverything at Welcome to Your Karlsson Years).

-As widely reported, Erik Karlsson won the Norris trophy and Daniel Alfredsson won the King Clancy award.  As I’ve said before I don’t really care about the awards themselves, but I’m happy for the two Swedes nonetheless.

-It’s been re-confirmed that the Sens have qualified all their RFA’s except Craig Schira (so including Nikita Filatov despite his KHL contract); this was reported weeks ago, but apparently rumours about Filatov have been floating around since.

-Tim Murray talked about how he expects the three top blueline prospects (Mark Borowiecki, Eric Gryba, and Patrick Wiercioch) to step up next season, “There’s always somebody coming behind you. It’s a cruel game. If your turn comes and you’re not ready for it, somebody else is taking your spot. They’re going to get a turn here shortly and they better grasp it.”  Murray also talked about the draft saying “We’re not convinced this is a great draft. The teams that have 11 or 12 picks say it’s a great draft and if we thought it was a great draft, it wouldn’t be hard to get more picks. We probably aren’t going to do that. I’ve been doing this for 20 years and in my estimation, it’s an average draft. There are some teams that think it’s a decent draft and there are other teams that don’t. So you have potential partners there in the fact that some teams will want picks and some teams will be happy to give up picks (and say) why don’t we wait until next year, when we like that draft a little better. So yeah, I think there could be a little moving and shaking tomorrow.“

-Pierre Dorion just keeps talking about the draft.  There’s not much new, but “You’re right, there’s not the ‘wow’ factor this year but I still feel personally, and I know my group of scouts feel the same way, come Saturday night when we’ve made seven selections, I think we’ll be very happy with the product that we’ve come away with.”  He also talked a little about Daniel Altshuller and Francois Brassard who came to Ottawa, “both good goalies. I would say Daniel is a bit bigger physically. Francois is skinnier. Daniel might be a bit better technically. Francois might be a bit quicker. But they’re both good guys and good goalies and will have a chance to have good NHL careers down the road.”

-Here are my draft predictions for Ottawa.  Speaking of the draft, Brian Costello at THN has borrowed the basic part of my draft analysis approach to produce a top-30 list (I’m sure the cheque is in the mail), although he doesn’t explain exactly how he’s blended the five lists he’s using (THN’s, Bob McKenzie’s, ISS, McKeens, and Future Considerations; or so he implies those are the sources, but it’s not explicitly stated) and come up with this (differences with my list are in brackets):
1 Nail Yakupov, RW
2 Filip Forsberg, RW
3 Ryan Murray, D
4 Alex Galchenyuk, C
5 Mikhail Grigorenko, C (7)
6 Griffin Reinhart, D (5)
7 Matt Dumba, D (6)
8 Morgan Rielly, D
9 Jacob Trouba, D (10)
10 Teuvo Teravainen, LW (9)
11 Cody Ceci, D
12 Radek Faksa, C
13 Hampus Lindholm, D (16)
14 Sebastian Collberg, RW (19)
15 Olli Maatta, D (14)
16 Derrick Pouliot, D (13)
17 Brendan Gaunce, C
18 Zemgus Girgensons, C (15)
19 Matthew Finn, D (20)
20 Slater Koekkkoek, D (18)
21 Thomas Wilson, RW
22 Andrei Vasilevski, G (24)
23 Tomas Hertl, C
24 Pontus Aberg, LW (22)
25 Brady Skjei, D
26 Colton Sissons, RW (27)
27 Scott Laughton, C (26)
28 Malcolm Subban, G (30)
29 Nicolas Kerdiles, LW (35)
30 Stefan Matteau, LW (32)

June 22, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a Comment

Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions

Here follows predictions for Ottawa’s selections over the next two days.  Before getting into the specifics it’s worth looking at draft trends under Bryan Murray.  There’s not much to be drawn from the 2007 draft class given when Murray was hired, so I’ve left it out, but the four drafts since then are indicative.  First, a brief look at the picks and where they are now:

2008
1-15 Erik Karlsson (DR, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC) – NHL
2-42 Patrick Wiercioch (DL, USHL, Omaha) – AHL
3-79 Zack Smith (C/LW, WHL, Swift Current) – NHL
4-109 Andre Petersson (RW/LW, SuperElit, HV71; WJC) – AHL
4-119 Derek Grant (C/LW, BCHL, Langley) – AHL
5-139 Mark Borowiecki (DL, CJHL, Smith Falls) – AHL
7-199 Emil Sandin (RW/LW, SuperElit, Brynas) - FA (unsigned)
2009
1-9 Jared Cowen (DL, WHL, Spokane; WHC-17) – NHL
2-39 Jakob Silfverberg (C/W, SuperElit, Brynas; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
2-46 Robin Lehner (G, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC-18) – AHL
4-100 Chris Wideman (DR, NCAA, Miami) – AHL
5-130 Mike Hoffman (C/LW, QMJHL, Drummondville) – AHL
5-146 Jeff Costello (LW, USHL, Cedar Rapids) - NCAA
6-160 Corey Cowick (LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) - AHL
7-190 Brad Peltz (LW, USHS, Avon Old Farms) – NCAA
7-191 Michael Sdao (DL, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA
2010
3-76 Jakub Culek (C/LW, QMJHL, Rimouski; WJC-18) – AHL
4-106 Marcus Sorensen (RW, SuperElit, Sodertalje) - FA (unsigned)
6-178 Mark Stone (RW, WHL, Brandon) – AHL/NHL
7-196 Bryce Aneloski (DR, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
2011
1-6 Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, SEL, Djurgardens; WJC-18) - NHL/AHL
1-21 Stefan Noesen (C/RW, OHL, Plymouth) - OHL
1-24 Matt Puempel (LW, OHL, Peterborough) – OHL
2-61 Shane Prince (C/LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – OHL/AHL
4-96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, QMJHL, Gatineau) – QMJHL/AHL
5-126 Fredrik Claesson (DL, SEL, Djurgardens, WJC-18) – AHL
6-156 Darren Kramer (C/LW, WHL, Spokane) – AHL
6-171 Max McCormick (LW, USHL, Sioux City) – NCAA
7-186 Jordan Fransoo (DR, WHL, Brandon) – WHL
7-204 Ryan Dzingel (C/LW, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA

That’s a total of 30 players, with 20 forwards, 9 defencemen, and 1 goaltender; 14 from the Canadian junior systems, 8 from the various US systems, and 8 from Sweden.  As for trends, 8 teams have had two players selected by the Senators (Frolunda, Brynas, Djurgardens, Ottawa 67s, Brandon, Spokane, Lincoln and Cedar Rapids).  In at least a few cases it seems that scouting one player has lead to the selection of another (Brandon Fransoo via Mark Stone and Bryce Aneloski via Jeff Costello–Chris Wideman also played for Cedar Rapids).  The only trend among the Swedes is that most had international experience prior to being drafted and none are from the northern club teams.  Among the USHL selections (6), most have been from the West Division (Lincoln, Omaha, and Sioux City).  Of the Canadian selections 4 players have been from local teams (Mark Borowiecki, Corey Cowick, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau), but are otherwise fairly spread out.  Thus far the only busts have been undersized Swedes (Emil Sandin and Marcus Sorensen).  I have to wonder if the Swedish flavour will be diminished by the absence of former scout Anders Forsberg.  The other trend is that the Sens try to make trades at the draft (be it the deal that landed Erik Karlsson in 2008, the trade to pick Michael Sdao in 2009, moving the first-rounder to get David Rundblad in 2010, or the deal that landed them Matt Puempel in 2011).

As far as what this means for this year’s draft we’ll have to wait and see, but there’s no reason to doubt that the team will make drafting blueliners and a goaltender a priority.  Ottawa has the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  I think the odds are good that the Sens will try to trade up, likely sacrificing their third-round selections in the hopes of landing a goaltender (I do not believe they will use their first-round pick on a goalie).  However, if they keep all their picks here’s my guess at the players they will select:
1-15 Hampus Lindholm (DL 6’2 SuperElit Rogle) - the Swedish blueliner has been a popular selection in mock drafts for the Sens and there’s little reason to doubt he’s part of their discussions; other players to consider are Olli Maatta (DL 6’1 OHL London) or Derrick Pouliot (DL 6’0 WHL Portland)
3-76 Calle Andersson (DR 6’2 SuperElit Malmo) - a right-handed Swedish blueliner; could also see James Melindy (DR 6’3 QMJHL Moncton), Dylan Blujus (DR 6’3 OHL Brampton), or scoring winger Robbie Baillargeon (RW 6’0 USHL Indiana)
3-82 Esa Lindell (DL 6’2 Fin Jr Jokerit) - Finnish blueliner coming off a solid WJC-18; it could also be any of the players mentioned above or power forward Mitchell Moroz (LW 6’2 WHL Edmonton)
4-106 Erik Karlsson (LW 5’11 SuperElit Frolunda) - Swedish winger; it could also be Moroz (above) or scoring winger Kevin Roy (LW 5’10 USHL Lincoln)
5-136 Daniel Altshuller (G 6’2 OHL Oshawa) - the Sens brought him to Ottawa; could also be Roy (above)
6-166 Carter Rigby (LW 6’0 WHL Kelowna) – power forward; could also be Francois Brassard (G 6’0 QMJHL Quebec), another goalie brought to Ottawa
7-196 Mike McKee (DL 6’4 USHL Lincoln) – rugged blueliner; it could also be Zane Jones (LW 6’0 WHL Victoria) a rugged winger

So, if my analysis and predictions for the draft are 100% correct in terms of who is available when (unlikely), the list looks like this:
Hampus Lindholm (D) – a Swede and a blueliner
James Melindy (D) – would fill the QMJHL quota (one player each of the last three drafts)
Mitchell Moroz - the Sens like power forwards
Erik Karlsson – undersized Swedish forward with skill (and would be another player picked from Frolunda)
Daniel Altshuller (G) – they’ve said repeatedly they will pick a goalie
Carter Rigby – yet another power forward
Mike McKee (D) – tough blueliner in the mould of Michael Sdao (and would be another player from Cedar Rapids)

June 22, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft

With the advent of the NHL salary cap after the 2004-05 lockout, it became paramount for all organisations to invest in their scouting operations and draft well.  It has become harder for teams to buy their way out of trouble or plug holes with expensive free agent talent.  Draft prediction has become a cottage industry for many hockey fans, but the wide variety of sources are not created equal and few of those who provide their opinions will reflect on their subsequent accuracy.  It’s my purpose here to collate the best sources and provide insight into who will be selected in this year’s upcoming NHL entry draft.

This is my third year predicting the draft (beginning with the now defunct Hockey Herald back in 2010).  That year I picked 72% of the entire class (well ahead of other sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (still well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS).  What follows is a continuation of the same analysis.

My method is to take the sum of reliable sources and produce an aggregate number (so player X is ranked 15, 24, and 32, these numbers are averaged).  This gives me a broad overview of where players will be slotted.  I then engage in further comparative analysis—for instance, if player X has a higher aggregate score, but player Y has the higher median score, the latter is given the higher position.  Precise predictions (player X at pick #29) are much more difficult (I was at 32% last year, which topped my sources).  The first round remains the easiest to predict in terms of who will be picked, if not where.

Determining my Sources of Data

While a wide variety of media and bloggers produce draft predictions (especially for the first round), not all are created equal.  My preference is the scouting community itself and those sources that they rely on.  For that purpose, The International Scouting Service (ISS), Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report (RLR), and Central Scouting (CS) are particularly weighty.  Central Scouting is the NHL’s scouting service, while ISS and RLR are independent scouting services used extensively within the NHL.  I also give TSN’s Bob McKenzie predictions a lot of weight, as his rankings prove an excellent barometer for draft results.

Rounding out my sources this year is The Hockey News (THN),  Future Considerations (FC), Hockey Prospects (HP), and McKeen’s (McK).  They provide extensive predictions and are put together by knowledgeable hockey people.

It has to be noted that both ISS and CI have inherent comparative problems when it comes to comparison because Central Scouting does not create a master list—players are divided into North American and European skaters, as well as being separated into goalie and skater categories.  ISS separates their goaltenders into a separate ranking (these at least can be loosely incorporated by taking the average number of the round they are slotted into).  Because of these drawbacks I load up with the additional data provided by other sources.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a difference between assessing who the best player is versus who a team will draft.  Some publications give weight to the latter, while other sources do not.  My purpose here is to slot players where they will be picked rather than assessing who is the best.

Notes

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), CS (Central Scouting), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospect), TSN (The Sports Network), THN (The Hockey News), FC (Future Considerations), and McKeen’s (McK).

Ranking depth: CS 378 (212 skaters and 35 goalies in North America along with 120 skaters and 11 goalies in Europe), RLR 312, ISS 220 (200 skaters and 20 goaltenders), HP 210, FC 210, McK 120, THN 100, and TSN’s Bob McKenzie 60.

The analysis itself: the aggregate is the total score of the player divided by the number of sources ranking that player (this score does not include the CS ranking given the issues detailed above).  When I say a player beats another “head-to-head” or on aggregate I mean that he has a better median score.

A final comment: the most obvious struggle for accurate scouting assessment remains Europeans, who are underrepresented in lists (barely 16% this year) for the obvious reason that it’s more expensive to cover Europe and the great variety of leagues (in terms of level of competition and style of play).  A smaller issue is the hard-on the scouting community has for players on the US National Development Team.  It seems to occur to no one that part of the reason the team performs so well at international events is, unlike their competition, they play together all year.  That advantage inflates opinions about the players and so that you can find virtually every draft eligible player on that team on someone’s list.

Ottawa and the Draft

The Sens have the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  If there are no trades and my list is exactly the same as Ottawa’s  (it won’t be, but play along) the Sens would draft: Zemgus Girgensons, Robbie Baillargeon, Troy Bourke, Seth Griffith, Daniel Altshuller, Dominic Volek and Grant Besse.  That would be 6 forwards and a goalie, which is a very unlikely situation.  The vast majority of mock drafts have the Sens picking Hampus Lindholm (who  at #16 would be available following my analysis) or Olli Maatta (who would not be available going at #14).  The Sens also brought Andrei Vasilevski (#24), Malcolm Subban (#30), Daniel Altshuller (#136), and Francois Brassard (#176) to Ottawa and they could select any of the goaltenders as things play out below.

First Round

1. Nail Yakupov (1.14) – the consensus #1 pick with only HP ranking him anywhere else (at #2)
2. Filip Forsberg (3.28) – in a statistical tie with Ryan Murray, but beats him head-to-head
3. Ryan Murray (D) (3.28) – only Bob McKenzie see’s him higher than this slot (at #2)
4. Alex Galchenyuk (5.14) – the only other player to get a #1 ranking (HP); ISS thinks the least of him ranking him #14
5. Griffin Reinhart (D) (6.42) – ranked as high as #4 (HP/TSN) and as low (RLR) as #9
6. Matt Dumba (D) (7.42) – in a statistical tie with Grigorenko and loses on aggregate, but I think the Russian factor tilts in his favour
7. Mikhail Grigorenko (7.42) – ranked as high as #3 (THN) or as low (TSN/HP) as #12
8. Morgan Rielly (D) (7.57) – ranked between #6 (RLR/THN) and #9 (FC/HP)
9. Teuvo Teravainen (8.00) – placed as high as #5 (McK) and as low as #12 (THN); he just edges out Trouba on aggregate as well as overall score
10. Jacob Trouba (D) (8.14) - he’s as high as #5 (ISS) and as low as #11 (RLR)
11. Cody Ceci (D) (12.71) – a big drop off in score from the top-ten players, no one has him listed higher than #10 (ISS/THN); RLR has the low score (#19)
12. Radek Faksa (14.00) – has a narrow range with the high #11 (TSN/THN) and the low #16 (RLR/ISS/McK)
13. Derrick Pouliot (D) (15.00) – rated quite low by ISS (#22), HP has his high at #10
14. Olli Maatta (D) (17.29) – the better sources have him higher (#10 TSN), but HP (#26) and FC (#27) push his score lower; when throwing out Girgensons outlier (HP) Maatta beats him easily on aggregate
15. Zemgus Girgensons (16.00) – his score is boosted by HP’s ridiculous ranking (#5!); ISS has the low at #24
16. Hampus Lindholm (D) (19.57) – his score hurt by an absurd rating from HP (#44), he easily beats Gaunce and Koekkoek head-to-head (the high is McK at #11)
17. Brendan Gaunce (19.14) – the first player with a second round placement (RLR #34), ISS has him highest at #11
18. Slater Koekkoek (D) (19.57) – despite a wide range (#11 for ISS, #23 for THN), all sources have him selected in the first round
19. Sebastien Collberg (21.00) – has a lower score than Finn, but he beats him on aggregate; highest at #12 (FC) and lowest from another bizarre HP ranking (#43)
20. Matthew Finn (D) (20.29) – highest rank at #14 (RLR) while his lowest is #26 (FC)
21. Thomas Wilson (22.14) – ranges from #17 (ISS) to #30 (FC); he is the last player to receive only first round selections from all sources
22. Pontus Aberg (23.14) – hurt by TSN’s #37; RLR has him highest at #15
23. Tomas Hertl (24.00) – ranges from TSN’s #19 to ISS’ #32
24. Andrei Vasilevski (G) (24.42) – by far the highest ranked goaltender, only ISS see’s him picked in the second round (RLR ranks him highest at #10)
25. Brady Skjei (D) (26.14) – FC pushes him into the second round (#37), but most have him as a first-rounder with #21 the high (McK)
26. Scott Laughton (29.43) – RLR is a fan (#17), but several sources have him in the second round (#42 is the low with THN)
27. Colton Sissons (30.14) – ranges from FC’s #16 to THN’s #40
28. Phillip Di Giuseppe (30.29) – HP loves him (#17), but five see him as an early second rounder (#36 from FC is the low)
29. Dalton Thrower (D) (31.43) – ranges from #23 (HP) to #39 (TSN)
30. Malcolm Subban (G) (38.28) – he does not have the next best overall score, but he’s hurt badly by RLR (#69) which masks his four first round selections, the highest #24 (McK)

Honourable mentions: six players had better overall scores than Subban (Stefan Matteau, Oscar Dansk, Ludvig Bystrom, Nicholas Kerdiles, Henrik Samuelsson, and Martin Frk).  Given the disinclination for teams to draft goaltenders in the first round, it’s entirely possible one of these players may go before Subban.  In terms of the number of players who also had first round selections they go in this order (a total of 15 players):
Three (3): Bystrom (ISS, FC, THN), Matteau (McK, THN, TSN), Mike Matheson (McK, THN, TSN)
Two (2): Samuelsson (RLR, ISS), Kerdiles (ISS, FC)
One (10): Dansk (FC), Jordan Schmaltz (RLR), Ville Pokka (THN), Tim Bozon (HP), Scott Kosmachuk (RLR), Tanner Pearson (TSN), Patrick Sieloff (HP), Damon Severson (RLR), Adam Pelech (ISS), and anomalously Jake Dotchin (HP with another odd decision)

Second Round

31. Ludvig Bystrom (D) (34.43) – it’s very close between he and Matteau (who has a better overall score), but he wins the head-to-head comparison; THN has him highest (#19) and HP the lowest (#52)
32. Stefan Matteau (32.57) – a very narrow range beginning at #23 (TSN) other than an RLR ’s ranking (#48)
33. Oscar Dansk (G) (35.57) - only FC (#25) has him in the first round (THN has the low of #44)
34. Henrik Samuelsson (36.29) – ranks behind Kerdiles on overall score, but beats him head-to-head; RLR has him highest (#22) while THN has him in the back half of the second round (#50)
35. Nicholas Kerdiles (35.00) – boosted by a very high scores from ISS (#15) and FC (#17); HP has the low at #50
36. Mike Matheson (D) (37.86) - the last player with three first round selections (lead by TSN’s #26); HP has the low at #56
37. Martin Frk (37.00) – the highest ranked player without a first round placement (HP has the high at #31, THN the low at #45)
38. Jordan Schmaltz (D) (37.86) – a statistical tie with Matheson, he’s much closer in comparison to Jankowski below; RLR loves him (#23) while FC has the low (#47)
39. Mark Jankowski (D) (39.29) – tied with Pokka below, the difference between he, Pokka, and Schmaltz is negligible; RLR gives him the high (#28) while ISS provides the low (#55)
40. Ville Pokka (D) (39.29) – given that Europeans are often misranked it’s tempting to put him ahead of Schmaltz, but based on the comparison he slots here; THN has the high (#28) while FC has the low (#55)
41. Tim Bozon (40.14) – HP has him as a first-rounder (#21), but he’s strongly slotted in the second (TSN with the low at #50)
42. Scott Kosmachuk (43.00) – RLR puts him in the first round (#25), but colour him a second-rounder (FC with the low at #57)
43. Tanner Pearson (45.57) – the first player with a third-round ranking (ISS at #88), he easily wins out over those ranked below (TSN has the high with #29)
44. Patrick Sieloff (D) (47.14) – who would have thought two assists in 24-games would earn you a ranking this high?  Sieloff gets a first round nod from HP (#24), but RLR has him mid-third round (#75)
45. Damon Severson (48.86) – while RLR has him in the first round (#30), most see him later in the second; THN slots him in the third at #65
46. Daniil Zharkov (50.00) – one suspects the Russian factor has made his rankings erratic, with FC putting him at #32 while HP has him at #75
47. Brady Vail (52.00) – the final player to be ranked in the second round by all sources; the high is #40 (McK), the low #60 (TSN)
48. Adam Pelech (D) (52.29) – the second last player to get a first round ranking (#30 from ISS), both RLR and FC have him in the third (#73 FC)
49. Mike Winther (57.14) – his score is off because of HP’s ranking (#97), but he easily beats both Slepyshev and Sutter on aggregate; THN has the high at #35
50. Anton Slepyshev (53.5) – the first player not ranked by all sources (TSN doesn’t list him), none of the players below him truly compare to his rankings; ISS has him highest (#36), while HP puts him lowest (#78)
51. Lukas Sutter (55.14) – despite his number he isn’t that far ahead of Maidens; RLR has the high (#37), while ISS has the low (#68)
52. Jarrod Maidens (58.14) – suffers from RLR’s score (#81); THN provides the high (#38)
53. Brian Hart (59.43) – ranges from #46 (TSN/FC) to #95 (HP)
54. Cristoval Nieves (62.29) – not the next highest by score, but is easily the next highest on aggregate; TSN has the high (#51), while RLR has the low (#93)
55. Nikolai Prokhorkin (62.5) – like Nieves he’s not the next highest, but wins head-to-head; ranges from #51 (ISS) to #77 (McK)
56. Jake McCabe (66.86) – along with the previous two players, the aggregate puts him ahead; ranges from #35 (FC) to #98 (HP)
57. Dane Fox (64.83) – ranges from #45 (RLR) to #94 (FC)
58. Chandler Stephenson (64.83) – statistical tie with Fox, but loses head-to-head; RLR has the high (#53), while FC has the low (#85)
59. Matt Murray (G) (65.28) - the final player with four second round selections; ranges from #41 (FC) to #119 (RLR)
60. Mikko Vainonen (D) (73.17) – tied with Gemel Smith as the last player with three second round selections, but he wins on aggregate; HP has the high (#39) while RLR has a low (#122)

Honourable mentions: Gemel Smith is the final player with three second round selections (ISS/HP/THN); eight other players were selected twice (Joonas Korpisalo (FC/McK), Devin Shore (RLR/TSN), Tanner Richard (RLR/HP), Andreas Athanasiou (ISS/THN), Calle Andersson (ISS/FC), Nick Ebert (RLR/THN), Tomas Hyka (ISS/THN), and Trevor Carrick (ISS/McK)).  I’ll also mention Dominic Toninato who has a very high score, but was only picked by two publications (RLR/HP) which isn’t enough for his placement to reflect that score.

Third Round

61. Gemel Smith (66.33) - the last player with three second round selections; ranges from #46 (THN) to #83 (RLR/McK)
62. Joonas Korpisalo (G) (70.2) – CS’ third ranked European goaltender has a wide range, from #51 (McK) to the fourth round (ISS)
63. Emil Lundberg (60.33) – a wild card as only three publications list him (ISS, FC, and THN), he’s well-regarded by those sources (#52 from THN to #66 from ISS)
64. Devin Shore (66.00) – a couple of players have better scores, but he’s by far the best aggregate of all the players who follow; his range is #46 (RLR) to #90 (McK)
65. Brett Kulak (D) (62.67) – highly regarded by HP (#32); FC and ISS share his low score (#71)
66. Branden Troock (73.17) – hammered by RLR (#116), THN has him in the second round (#54)
67. Calle Andersson (D) (76.33) – a wide range for the Swede, with a #39 from FC and a #144 from RLR
68. Brandon Whitney (G) (72.6) – CS’ second ranked North American goaltender, ISS has him in the fourth round while he’s at #53 for HP
69. Andreas Athanasiou (73.67) – widely divergent opinions with THN putting him at #32 and McKeens at #106
70. Tomas Hyka (80.17) – another player who could go early or late, both ISS and THN still have him at #39 while RLR ranks him at #124
71. Nick Ebert (D) (79.83) - no one’s stock fell from greater heights than Ebert’s; RLR still has him at #54, while McKeens ranks him at #111
72. Matia Marcantuoni (81.29) – the last player ranked by all sources, he ranges from #58 (TSN) to #110 (RLR)
73. Trevor Carrick (D) (85.83) – suffers from RLR’s ranking (#155), McKeens thinks highly of him (#49)
74. Tanner Richard (73.5) – either a second or fourth rounder, #43 (RLR) to #105 (FC)
75. Dylan Blujus (D) (80.83) – HP isn’t a fan (#115), but THN has him in the second round (#57)
76. Robbie Baillargeon (79.2) – loses to Blujus on aggregate, ranges from #69 (ISS) to #107 (FC)
77. Esa Lindell (D) (96.67) – suffers from RLR’s #187, HP puts him in the second round (#41)
78. Sam Kurker (83.83) – one of TSN’s last selections, he beats Bluegar on aggregate; high of #55 (TSN), low of #117 (RLR)
79. Teddy Bluegar (80.2) – ranges from #58 (McK) to #116 (FC)
80. James Melindy (D) (83.00) – next best on aggregate, ranging from #60 (FC) to #114 (HP)
81. Dillon Fournier (D) (85.17) – all over the map with HP’s #37 and ISS’ #132
82. Troy Bourke (93.4) – his score is blown up by HP’s #180; RLR puts him in the second round (#51)
83. Zach Stepan (94.17) – the last player with four third-round selections, HP has the high (#70), while RLR has the low (#164)
84. Raphael Bussieres (89.33) – wins the aggregate battle over Stolarz; ranges from #76 (McK) to #104 (RLR)
85. Anthony Stolarz (G) (86.8) – CS’ fourth ranked North American goaltender is a second-rounder for HP (#54); FC has the low (#108)
86. Steven Hodges (90.00) – is evenly placed in the third and fourth round, ranging from #77 (THN) to #99 (FC)
87. Charles Hudon (93.17) – a high of #52 (FC) to a low of #129 (HP)
88. Coda Gordon (94.67) – all over the map, suffering from HP’s ranking (#136), FC has him in the second round (#54)
89. Gianluca Curcuruto (D) (92.00) – ranges from #70 (RLR) to #128 (HP)
90. Nikita Gusev (109.2) – a huge range from #49 (ISS) to #218 (RLR)

Honourable mention: Toninato (mentioned above) remains out for the same reason why Jacob Slavin (he on the back of a high HP rating).  Jon Gillies, Erik Karlsson, Nicholas Walters, and Joe Paterson had three selections in the third (or second) round, while the following 17 players had at least two third round (or a second and third round) selections: Andrei Makarov, MacKenzie MacEachern, Mitchell Moroz, Brian Cooper, Cody Corbett, Logan Nelson, Josh Anderson, Ben Johnson, Samuel Fejes, Jesse Graham, Ryan Culkin, John Draegar, Marcus McIvor, Collin Olson, Mikael Wikstrand, Valeri Vasiliev, and Brock McGinn.

91. Jake Paterson (G) (98.4) – ranges from #59 (McK) to #175 (RLR)
92. Jon Gillies (G) (104.4) – beats Karlsson on aggregate, ranging from #61 (McK) to #200 (HP)
93. Erik Karlsson (103.4) – he’s all over the map from #46 (McK) to #170 (RLR)
94. Nicholas Walters (D) (112.00) – the last player with three selections in the second or third round, he ranges from #57 (HP) to #126 (RLR)
95. Jacob Slavin (D) (92.33) – only listed by three sources, his high is #65 (HP), the low #112 (FC)
96. Dominic Toninato (51.00) – only listed by two sources, but both rank him highly (#36 from RLR, #66 from HP)
97. Mitchell Moroz (101.00) – the second last player ranked by TSN (#56), he wins the aggregate battle against those with higher scores; his low is ISS’ #170
98. Brian Cooper (D) (102.5) – another aggregate winner, he ranges from #79 (THN) to #160 (HP)
99. Brendan Leipsic (96.8) - in a statistical tie with Tikkinen, but wins head-to-head; high of #57 (RLR) and low of #135 (HP)
100. Niklas Tikkinen (D) (96.8) – range of #43 (ISS) to #134 (FC)
101. Ben Johnson (111.8) – rankings all over the place with a #56 from ISS and a #186 from HP; he beats out those with higher scores on aggregate
102. Cody Corbett (D) (104.2) – the next aggregate champ, his high is #66 (FC) and his low is #143 (RLR)
103. Josh Anderson (106.00) – I’ve seen his first name spelt Joshua as well; the next head-t0-head champ; he ranges from #68 (HP) to #177 (RLR)
104. Mackenzie MacEachern (99.5) – not ranked by ISS, his high is #73 (RLR), his low #141 (FC)
105. Riley Barber (108.2) – an aggregate champ, he ranges from #82 (RLR) to #139 (FC)
106. Seth Griffith (101.3) – ranges from #52 (RLR) to #144 (ISS)
107. Andrei Makarov (G) (115.6) – ahead on aggregate, he’s all over the place, from #44 (RLR) to a 7th rounder (ISS)
108. Jake Dotchin (D) (100.5) – an HP favourite (#30), his low is #154 (FC)
109. Francois Tremblay (G) (110.8) – ranges from #71 (McK) to a 5th rounder (ISS)
110. Logan Nelson (105.8) – behind Tremblay head-to-head, he ranges from #66 (McK) to #142 (FC)
111. Chris Calnan (110.4) – big range between McKeen’s #78 and ISS’ #157
112. Henri Ikonen (148.2) – his score is massively inflated by RLR’s #301 which is far above all his other rankings (McKeen’s has him at #75)
113. Mikael Wikstrand (D) (128.2) – hammered by RLR’s #191, ISS and THN rank him at #85
114. Samuel Fejes (113.00) – suffers from RLR’s #181, FC puts him in the second round (#59)
115. Chris Tierney (113.8) – beats Vatrano head-to-head, ranges from #87 (RLR) to #177 (FC)
116. Frankie Vatrano (113.3) – beats Vesey on aggregate, his high is #97 (THN) and his low is #144 (HP)
117. Jim Vesey (112.8) – ranges from #85 (RLR) to #152 (HP)
118. Valeri Vasiliev (D) (132.8) – all over the place, but one of the last players with a second round ranking (#57); RLR puts him out of the draft (#243)
119. Brock McGinn (138.00) – the last player ranked by TSN (#59), he’s not well-regarded by ISS (#164)
120. Jesse Graham (D) (114.3) – ranges from #65 (ISS) to #181 (FC)

Honourable mention: Culkin, Draegar, McIvor, and Olson remain with two third round selections; a large number of players remain with at least one third round placement; Connor Brown remains as the only player left with a second round ranking (another radical HP selection).  Justin Kea has the highest remaining score, but was only picked by two sources (ISS and McKeen’s), and Michael Clarke leads the way with four fourth-round selections (ISS, HP, McK, and THN).

Fifth Round

121. Ryan Culkin (D) (117.00) – the next aggregate champ, a high of #67 (ISS) and a low of #182 (RLR)
122. Marcus McIvor (D) (123.6) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#205); ISS has him at #78
123. Michael Clarke (117.8) – more fourth round selections than anyone else; ranges from #94 (McK) to #159 (FC)
124. Collin Olson (G) (124.3) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#199); FC puts him at #84
125. John Draegar (D) (122.00) – the last player with two third round selections; ranges from #81 (McK) to #157 (FC)
126. Artur Gavrus (120.6) – third round consideration from RLR (#72), he bottoms out with FC (#167)
127. Kevin Roy (117.8) – a wide range, from #80 (McK) to #156 (RLR)
128. Matthew DeBlouw (119.5) – hurt by FC’s ranking (#170); ISS has him at #87
129. Connor Carrick (D) (125.00) – next on aggregate; his high is #85 (HP) and his low is #162 (ISS)
130. Christian Djoos (D) (132.8) – hurt by RLR’s #196, FC picks him for the third round (#83)
131. Max Iafrate (D) (114.5) – ranges from #80 (ISS) to #150 (HP)
132. Justin Hache (D) (125.8) – next on aggregate, ranging from #88 (THN) to #188 (HP)
133. Zack Leslie (D) (124.5) – ranges from #81 (THN) to #159 (ISS)
134. Tyrel Seaman (127.00) - wins head-to-head; #91 (THN) to #161 (HP)
135. Cedric Paquette (126.00) – only three sources list him with ISS providing the low (#168) and RLR the high (#94)
136. Daniel Altshuller (G) (128.5) – all over the place, with an #95 (FC) to a sixth round from ISS
137. Chris Marchese (126.00) – ranges from #106 (HP) to #152 (FC)
138. Jujhar Khaira (128.8) – a high of #108 (RLR) to a low of #149 (FC)
139. Jordan Martinook (125.00) – hurt by RLR’s #190, HP has him in the third round (#72)
140. Dan O’Regan (129.5) – ranges from #113 (RLR) to #145 (FC)
141. Justin Kea (111.5) – only ranked by two sources (#105 ISS and #118 McK)
142. Francis Beauvillier (145.00) – aggregate champ, he ranges from #95 (McK) to #210 (HP)
143. Travis Brown (D) (120.3) - ranges from #96 (RLR) to #135 (FC)
144. Anton Zlobin (145.5) – all over the place from #91 (RLR) to #203 (HP)
145. Petteri Lindbohm (D) (121.5) – only picked by two sources (#118 ISS and #125 FC)
146. Kenton Helgesen (D) (122.5) – also only picked by two sources (#96 ISS and #149 RLR)
147. Devin Tringale (119.00) only picked by two sources (#106 ISS and #132 FC)
148. Christophe Lalancette (136.00) – next on aggregate, he ranges from #109 (FC) to #189 (ISS)
149. Viacheslav Osnovin (146.5) – his score is thrown by RLR’s #248; ISS puts him in the third round (#77)
150. Chris Driedger (G) (136.00) – aggregate winner, ISS has him as a third rounder while HP ranks him at #185

Honourable mentions: Brown still remains (the last second round pick), as do 8 players who received a third round selection (Rhett Holland, Ryan Rupert, Judd Peterson, Jaynen Rissling, Jake Montgomery, Ludvig Nilsson, Matthew Lane, and Mike McKee).

Sixth Round

151. Brandon Magee (130.00) – only listed by two sources (#123 ISS, #137 RLR)
152. Kristoff Kontos (133.7) – ranges from #105 (HP) to #171 (FC)
153. Ludvig Nilsson (161.2) – very mixed opinions on him, with THN ranking him at #67 and RLR dropping him out of the draft at #249
154. Matej Beran (134.7) – aggregate champ, ranges from #93 (ISS) to #180 (FC)
155. Mikko Lehtonen (D) (142.3) – hurt by RLR (#193), HP puts him in the fourth round (#113)
156. Troy Donnay (D) (148.00) – his score is thrown by RLR (#250); ISS ranks him at #92
157. Gustav Rydahl (137.3) – drops due to aggregate, he ranges from #103 (FC) to #161 (ISS)
158. Alexandre Mallet (138.7) – thrown by his ISS score (#198), HP ranks him at #107
159. Cameron Darcy (163.8) – head-to-head leader, his high score is #113 (ISS), his low #251 (RLR)
160. Reece Wilcox (D) (148.00) – next on aggregate, ranging from #101 (McK) to #194 (FC)
161. Quentin Shore (155.3) – scores are all over the place, from #104 (McK) to #233 (RLR)
162. Thomas Di Pauli (169.3) – buried by RLR (#255), HP has him at #117
163. Alexei Filippov (172.5) – also buried by RLR (#235), ISS has him at #127
164. Matthew Campagna (140.00) – best score among players with three or more sources; from #101 RLR to #173 HP
165. Jaynen Rissling (D) (150.5) – highest ranked player with four sources; from #64 RLR to #204 HP
166. Dominic Volek (151.8) – wide variety of opinion, from #99 (THN) to #180 (ISS)
167. Ashton Sautner (D) (168.00) – ranges from #130 ISS to #203 RLR
168. Jake Montgomery (160.5) – his score is hurt by RLR (#215); FC puts him in the third round (#86)
169. Rhett Holland (D) (145.00) – the highest ranked three-source player remaining; RLR #68, ISS #199
170. Ryan Rupert (147.3) – ranges from #74 (RLR) to #200 (ISS)
171. Graham Black (154.3) – rankings from #114 (RLR) to #177 (HP)
172. Joey Laleggia (D) (154.7) – ranges from #112 (HP) to #177 (ISS)
173. Matthew Beattie (155.7) – best three-sourcer on aggregate; #144 FC to #166 RLR
174. A. J. Michaelson (169.00) – his score is hurt by HP (#198), ISS with the high at #133
175. Adam Gilmour (177.8) – RLR throws his score with a #234; FC has the high at #137
176. Francois Brassard (G) (148.6) – ranges from #120 (RLR) to #191 (HP)
177. Carter Rigby (158.7) – high of #138 (RLR) to a low of #173 (ISS)
178. Matthew Lane (180.3) - ranges from #89 (ISS) to #239 (RLR)
179. Logan McVeigh (158.00) – hurt by his RLR ranking (#209); high of #120 (FC)
180. Austin Wuthrich (134.00) – only ranked by McKeens and HP

Honourable mention: Brown remains with his second round selection; Peterson and McKee are the only players left with a third round selection.  Reid Gow and Andrew Ryan are the only players remaining picked to be drafted by four sources.  There are some highly ranked players from CS that are either not considered by any other source or only by one.

Seventh Round

181. Dakota Mermis (D) (139.00) – only ranked by ISS and FC
182. Jake Bischoff (D) (140.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
183. Connor Brown (156.7) – loved by HP (#58), RLR has the low at #238
184. Joel Wigle (163.7) - ahead on aggregate, ranging from #108 (HP) to #246 (RLR)
185. Marek Langhammer (G) (150.00) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS ranks him as the 5th best European goaltender
186. Tobias Tornkvist (152.00) –  along with FC and RLR, CS ranks him as 29th among European skaters
187. Erik Thorell (n/a) – ranked #111 by ISS, CS lists him as the 19th best European skater
188. Jeremy Boyce Rotevall (n/a) – ranked #120 by ISS, CS lists him as the 24th best European skater
189. Reid Gow (D) (176.3) – the second last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (HP) to #190 (FC)
190. Andrew Ryan (187.8) – the last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (RLR) to #205 (FC)
191. Denis Kamaev (192.3) – his score is thrown by RLR (#296); ISS has him at #138
192. Brandon Devlin (D) (185.00) – the last player to appear in four sources; ranges from #147 (ISS) to #254 (RLR)
193. Patrik Bartosak (G) (175.6) - ranges from #158 (FC) to #204 (RLR)
194. Cain Franson (174.00) – a high of #142 (ISS), a low of #202 (RLR)
195. Cliff Watson (D) (178.3) – ranges from #165 (HP) to #188 (RLR)
196. Grant Besse (180.00) – the last player picked by three sources to be drafted; ranges from #139 (RLR) to #207 (FC)
197. Zane Jones (145.5) – only ranked by RLR and ISS
198. Colin Smith (152.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
199. Nathan Pancel (154.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
200. Matt Rupert (158.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
201. Christoph Bertschy (168.5) – gets the nod by being CS’ 35th ranked European skater (also ranked by RLR and HP)
202. Nathan Walker (172.00) – CS’ 25th ranked European skater (also ranked by ISS and RLR)
203. Alexei Bereglazov (D) (n/a) – ranked #95 by RLR, CS lists him as the 54th best European skater
204. Thomas Spelling (n/a) – ranked #115 by RLR, CS lists him as the 90th best European skater
205. Vladislav Shalimov (201.7) – ranges from #155 (ISS) to #281 (RLR)
206. Alexander Kerfoot (203.3) – ranges from #146 (FC) to #257 (RLR)
207. Alex Gudbranson (D) (162.5) – the top remaining two-source player (ranked by ISS and HP)
208. Liam O’Brien (163.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
209. Zack Mitchell (166.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
210. Simon Fernholm (D) (204.5) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS has him among the best in Europe (#32)

Honourable mentions: Judd Peterson (HP) and Mike McKee (RLR) who were ranked as third-rounders; 12 players were picked twice to be drafted (Cody Payne, James De Haas, Taylor Leier, Michael Houser, Michal Plutnar, Egor Malenkikh, Warren Steele, Brendan Collier, Taylor Burke, Mackenzie Weegar, Myles Bell, and Etienne Marcoux).  Three Europeans ranked by CS in their top-30 were not listed by any other source (Evgeni Krutikov, Erik Nemec, Otso Rantakari, and Jean Auren, the fourth ranking European goaltender).  Adam Johnson was CS’ top-listed North American who does not appear above (#82 on their list).  Other notables (picked in the fourth round): Christopher Clapperton (FC), Malte Stromwall (McK), Brett Foy (HP), Alex Basso (HP), Eric Locke (RLR), and Lukas Balmelli (ISS).  I did not use Corey Pronman’s list in my analysis and two of his second round picks (Austin Cangelosi and Austin Czarnik) do not appear (along with five of his third round selections).  For the scores of those above:
Judd Peterson (150.00)
Cody Payne (168.00)
James De Haas (170.5)
Taylor Leier (171.5)
Michael Houser (173.00)
Michal Plutnar (176.5)
Egor Malenkikh (177.00)
Warren Steele (178.00)
Brendan Collier (180.5)
Taylor Burke (187.00)
Christopher Clapperton (193.5)
Mackenzie Weegar (197.5)
Myles Bell (200.00)
Malte Stromwall (210.00)
Etienne Marcoux (220.00)

Overall the list includes 129 forwards, 64 defensemen, and 17 goaltenders, with 39 players coming fom Europe and 171 coming from North American leagues.

There are strong streaks of dissonance from HP’s rankings in the draft (mostly early) and RLR (generally later).  It will be interesting to see how much success each has once the draft is over.

June 19, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Bob McKenzie’s 2012 NHL Draft Rankings

Tonight TSN’s Bob McKenzie has broadcast his list of the top players in the draft.  McKenzie has a stellar record for draft predictions and here are his top-30 rankings along with my thoughts.

1. Nail Yakupov
2. Ryan Murray
3. Filip Forsberg
4. Griffin Reinhart
5. Alex Galchenyuk
6. Matt Dumba
7. Teuvo Teravainen
8. Morgan Rielly
9. Jacob Trouba
10. Olli Maatta
11. Radek Faksa
12. Mikhail Grigorenko
13. Zemgus Girgensons
14. Cody Ceci
15. Hampus Lindholm
16. Slater Koekkoek
17. Derrick Pouliot
18. Thomas Wilson
19. Tomas Hertl
20. Brandan Gaunce
21. Matthew Finn
22. Brady Skjei
23. Stefan Matteau
24. Andrei Vasilevski
25. Malcolm Subban
26. Michael Matheson
27. Sebastien Collberg
28. Scott Laughton
29. Tanner Pearson
30. Phillip Di Giuseppe

There’s nothing radically different about McKenzie’s list as compared to other publications, although he has the two top goaltenders rated higher than most along with a few other idiosyncrasies.  With this list out my own draft predictions are right around the corner.

June 18, 2012
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Previous page Next Page »
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.