Prospect Profile: Fredrik Claesson

Fredrik Claesson (D-L, 6’0, DOB 1992, 5-126/11)
2009-10 SupEl Djurgardens 22-0-4-4 +11 18pim (ppg 0.18) 8th d-pts
2010-11 SupEl Djurgardens 18-2-3-5 +10 6pim (ppg 0.27) 6th
2010-11 SEL Djurgardens 35-2-0-2 +4 6pim (ppg 0.05) 7th
2011-12 SEL Djurgardens 47-1-6-7 +7 8pim (ppg 0.14) t-5th
2011-12 WJC Sweden 6-0-0-0 Even 0pim t-6th

A defensive defenseman (ranked #27 by Central Scouting), Claesson was a teammate of Zibanejad‘s (and briefly Marcus Sorensen) and continued his strong, safe play with struggling Djurgarden this season (he was also a member of Sweden’s gold medal winning WJC team).  He might return to the Sweden for another season, although that seems less likely now that Djurgarden has been relegated.  I haven’t been able to find a decent scouting report on Claesson (Hockey Futures writes “Claesson is almost exclusively a stay-at-home defenseman. While not overly physical, he plays a sound positional game and is very good at preventing scoring opportunities and blocking shots and passes. Claesson is not an impressive stickhandler at this point in his career but those skills should improve as he continues to develop“), but the organisation has compared him to Anton Volchenkov.  Here’s Claesson playing in the development camp, and an interview with him after winning the World Junior Championships.

April 13, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Senators News: April 13th

–Paul MacLean was happy with 54 minutes of his team’s effort, feeling that the end of the second and beginning of the third was their primary problem last night.  He acknowledged their powerplay needs to be much better, and “We didn’t play our best. We need to play better, obviously, to win. When you lose a game, you can always be better in all areas and all zones of the rink.”  The Sens players had essentially the same message, which is in stark contrast to the sky-is-falling mentality of the press.

-There’s probably no point in correcting Allen Panzeri, but for those scoring at home Erik Karlsson stopped Prust‘s breakaway, not Chris Phillips as reported.

–Bruce Garrioch illustrates why reading about the game isn’t the same as watching the game, “The Rangers served noticed to the Senators  that the team that pays the price is going to win the series. New York used its physical force to hit just about everything wearing a white sweater.”  Garrioch leaves the impression that the Rangers were the more physical team and it’s just not true–hits were even at 37 and even without the official stats physicality was not the deciding factor of the game.

-Speaking of Garrioch, he was on Hockey Central this afternoon and according to the boys in the studio the series is over–mark it down.  Doug MacLean thinks Condra is one of Ottawa’s big bodies incidentally–something he’s repeated for awhile–which I get a kick out of.

–Joy Lindsay reports that Mika Zibanejad will not play for Binghamton this weekend due to a mix of illness and exhaustion (Garrioch reports it may be a concussion).  Robin Lehner will start tonight and both Andre Petersson and Stephane Da Costa are expected to play.

April 13, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Ottawa 2, New York Rangers 4

Ottawa played about forty-five minutes of good hockey tonight, which wasn’t enough to beat the Rangers.  As expected, the Sens gave up more quality chances than the Rangers and could not get game-saving goaltending from Anderson.  Ottawa did a good job penalty killing and managed to generate enough offensive chances, but the game was out of hand before they started to capitalise.  Viewers were treated to the CBC broadcast, which featured Bob Cole who couldn’t figure out Gonchar and Karlsson, while Glenn Healy spent the evening ejaculating about the Rangers.  Here’s the box score.

First Period
A nervous start for both teams with not much flow and no scoring chances early, but Kuba took the first penalty of the game with Anisimov hurling himself to the ice to draw the call (Richards tried the same thing on the first shift of the game, but the refs didn’t bite).  The Rangers didn’t get a chance on the man advantage.  Spezza nearly broke in all alone, but wasn’t able to get a shot off.  The Sens got a powerplay of their own via a Prust trip, but were unable to get set-up or generate a chance.  Condra was hurt by a Richards hit in the corner (Bob Cole didn’t notice).  The Rangers opened the scoring when Anderson got out of position on a point shot blocked by Kuba.  Bickel took a crosschecking penalty (that sent Glenn Healy rhapsodic whining), which produced the Sens first good scoring chance (a tip by Greening) which was followed by a near-break for Prust (well defended by Karlsson) and Boyle sucker punching Karlsson repeatedly (which turned into coincidental penalties).  The Sens controlled the play through the end of the frame.
Second Period
The Sens had a good start to the period, with Gonchar blasting a great chance over the net.  Anderson made a good save off Del Zotto.  Spezza had a chance about five minutes in, but couldn’t beat Lundqvist.  The following shift the Sens second line created all kinds of pressure, but Anderson nearly gave up another goal as he was caught well out of his net, but the Rangers couldn’t hit it from the red line.  Anderson made a great stop on Richards close to the midway point, followed by a great chance for O’Brien who was in all alone.  Tortorella called a timeout with the Rangers icing the puck over and over again.  Anderson made a fantastic save on Gaborik on a 2-on-1, and on the next shift stoned Stepan.  New York started to carry the play, but McDonagh tripped Karlsson to put Ottawa on the powerplay.  The Sens weren’t able to generate any chances with the man advantage and the Rangers scored on the following shift as Gonchar couldn’t make up his mind on his defensive coverage and allowed Gaborik to walk in on Anderson.  The Sens took a penalty on the next shift as the Rangers nearly scored again.  Ottawa killed the penalty, but Boyle scored when he collected a puck that bounced off Cowen.
Third Period
Foligno baubled the puck in his own zone leading to an easy one-timer goal by Richards.  The Sens were discombobulated for awhile after the goal, with disjointed play.  After killing a Smith slashing penalty the Sens broke Lundqvist‘s shutout bid with a great tip by Alfredsson.  Ottawa made the score look more respectable with a goal from Condra off a nice Foligno feed, but pulling Anderson for the last two minutes of the period weren’t able to get pucks to the net.

Here’s a look at the goals:
1. Rangers, Callahan
Kuba blocks a weak point shot and Anderson who loses his net and gives up a bad goal
2. Rangers, Gaborik
Gonchar can’t decide if he wants to take away the pass or attack the man so he let’s Gaborik go uncontested on Anderson and fakes him out
3. Rangers, Boyle
The puck bounces off Cowen and Anderson goes down immediately, allowing Boyle to pick the top corner
4. Rangers, Richards
Foligno baubles the puck behind the net and an uncontested Richards beats Anderson with a one-timer
5. Alfredsson (Spezza, Michalek)
Spezza floats a shot in and Alfredsson (uncontested in front) tips it in
6. Condra (Foligno, Turris)
A 2-on-1 down low after the Rangers all went after Turris along the blueline and Condra’s blooped shot beats Lundqvist

Top-performers:
Daniel Alfredsson – scored a goal and was the only consistently dangerous Ottawa forward
Ottawa’s PK – did a great job preventing the Rangers from generating scoring chances with the man advantage

Players Who Struggled:
Craig Anderson – he did make some big saves, but when the Sens needed a game changing save he couldn’t produce one and allowed two goals he should have stopped
Ottawa’s Powerplay – unable to generate chances or momentum

April 12, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Senators News: April 12th

-I wanted to include quotes from players going into tonight’s games, but you’ve heard all the cliches before.  The analysis offered in the papers has been deep and meaningful, with astonishing insight like goaltending will be important.  For my part I dive into the numbers for the series.

-Sens assistant GM Tim Murray was on The Team 1200 yesterday and said he wasn’t concerned about burning a year of Zibanejad‘s contract if they felt he could help the team win.  He also said they expect Jakob Silfverberg to join the team when the SEL playoffs are over (that could be as early as April 15th or as late as April 21st).  Nichols has the conversation transcribed for those who prefer reading it.

–Jared Crozier makes his prediction for the Sens series and see’s Ottawa winning in six.  He’s the first person I’ve seen who provides some of the performances within the regular season series between the teams.

-For those who missed it, octogenarian Bob Cole will be calling the Ottawa series, much to the chagrin of Sens fans everywhere.  My only advice: hockey is a beautiful game even with the sound off.

–Joy Lindsay reports that Wacey Hamilton and Dan Henningson‘s seasons are over due to injury.  She also interviewed Ben Blood who talked about his first two games with Binghamton, “The play is definitely faster. Guys are bigger, smarter, faster. You’ve got to be more positionally sound out there. You’ve got to support each other. But it’s also a little bit easier because all the guys are so much better. It just makes the game easier when you’re playing with better guys. I just want to be a big, physical, shutdown d-man out there. I’m just going to try to play my game, and play my game every night and every day at practice.”

–Mark Stone‘s Brandon Wheat Kings have been eliminated in the WHL playoffs, but the Sens prospect was injured in their series so I’m not sure if he’ll join the NHL club or not.

-I watched the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia game last night and was struck by how much attention the media gave the missed call that lead to Briere‘s goal (making the game 3-1 Pittsburgh).  I mention it because of how many times the media has dismissed terrible officiating by saying it’s just an excuse and the NHL has the best officials in the world.  You have to wonder why this particular play excited them so much.  That being said, if you aren’t watching this series, you should be.  In the Nashville-Detroit series, Weber should be suspended, but he won’t be.

April 12, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Ottawa Senators-New York Rangers Playoff Preview: The Numbers

I’ve already posted my prediction for this series (link), where I included some of the basic numbers of both teams, but I think it’s worth going into greater depth with the numbers.  First, a review of those basic numbers (keep in mind, the Rangers had a better record so they should dominate most categories):

New York Rangers (51-24-7)-Ottawa Senators (41-31-10)
2nd (overall)/1st (east)-16th (overall), 8th (east)
Home Record: 27-12-2 (NYR, 7th), 20-17-4 (Ott, 24th)
Road Record: 24-12-5 (NYR, 3rd), 21-14-6 (Ott, 7th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 (NYR), 4-6-0 (Ott)
Winning % Outshot: .556 (NYR, 11th), .533 (Ott, 14th)
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Times Shorthanded: 260 (12th), 310 (28th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)
Injuries: Regin (indefinitely), Carkner (day-to-day); Zuccarello (indefinitely), Sauer (concussion), Eminger (day-to-day)

There’s not much that’s unexpected in the basic numbers–Ottawa scores more, the Rangers give up fewer goals.  The overall faceoff numbers are a wash and special teams essentially cancel each other out.  The Sens take too many penalties, but that’s less relevant in the playoffs when fewer calls are made.  While the Sens give up more shots than the Rangers, they have a better record when outshot so that too is largely irrelevant.  Both teams were excellent on the road.  The Senators have a healthy roster, while the Rangers are a bit short on the blueline.

General Player Comparisons (keep in mind that official tracking of hits, blocked shots, etc have to be taken with a grain of salt)
TOI leader (blueline): Karlsson (25:19); Girardi (26:14)
TOI leader (forward): Spezza (19:55); Callahan (21:02)
Faceoff % leaders: Konopka (58.9), Winchester (53.6), Spezza (53.5); Dubinsky (51.9), Richards (51.8), Boyle (51.8)
Faceoffs taken leaders: Spezza (1700), Smith (990), Turris (723); Richards (1316), Boyle (1215), Stepan (867)
Powerplay goal leaders: Spezza/Michalek (10); Callahan (13)
Powerplay goals by defensemen: 12 (Ott); 3 (NYR)
Shorthanded goals: Alfredsson (3); Hagelin/Prust (2)
Game Winning goals: Karlsson (5); Callahan/Richards (9)
Shot leaders: Karlsson (261), Spezza (232), Michalek (212); Gaborik (276), Callahan (235), Richards (229)
Plus/Minus leader (blueline): Kuba (+26); McDonagh (+25)
Plus/Minus leader (forward): Alfredsson (+16); Hagelin (+21)
Hits (forward): Neil (271), Foligno (196), Greening (189); Callahan (271), Boyle (236), Dubinsky (207)
Hits (defense): Cowen (217), Phillips (134), Karlsson (60); Girardi (236), Del Zotto (156), McDonagh (118)
Blocked shots: Kuba (149), Phillips (137), Gonchar (115); Girardi (185), McDonagh (182), Del Zotto (95)
Giveaways: Karlsson/Spezza (84); Girardi (61)
Takeaways: Karlsson (67); Callahan/Stepan (51)
PIM leaders: Konopka (193), Neil (178), Foligno (124); Prust (156), Dubinsky (110), Bickel (108)
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the best) Defense: Kuba, Karlsson, Gonchar; McDonagh, Girardi, Del Zotto
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: Turris, Greening, Michalek; Callahan, Richards, Dubinsky
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the worst) Defense: Carkner, Cowen, Phillips; Bickel, Stralman, Staal
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: O’Brien, Neil/Winchester; Rupp, Mitchell, Prust
Playoff Experience (forwards expected to play): 293 (Ott); 298 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (defense expected to play): 250 (Ott); 59 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (starting goaltenders): 6 (Ott); 35 (NYR)

Paul MacLean has used his players more evenly than Tortorella, with the latter largely dependent on his top three lines and top four defensemen.  The Sens have a distinctive edge in faceoffs player by player, although Spezza takes a disproportionate amount of Ottawa’s draws.  For all the accolades about the Rangers blocking shots it’s clear that their top pairing are the ones largely responsible for it.  In terms of playoff experience the only significant edge is on the blueline, where Ottawa has a clear advantage (I don’t think the experience difference between goaltenders means as much because Anderson has played in the league for a long time).

Defensemen (compared by TOI)
Karlsson (81-19-58-78 +16 25:19)-Girardi (82-5-24-29 +13 26:14)
Kuba (73-6-26-32 +26 23:36)-McDonagh (82-7-25-32 +25 24:44)
Gonchar (74-5-32-37 -4 22:15)-Del Zotto (77-10-31-41 +20 22:26)
Phillips (80-5-14-19 +12 19:06)-Staal (46-2-3-5 -7 19:53)
Cowen (82-5-12-17 -4 18:53)-Stralman (53-2-16-18 +9 17:05)
Gilroy (67-3-17-20 +2 17:30)-Bickel (51-0-9-9 +2 10:26)

The Sens, if they stay healthy, have the edge on the blueline.  The Rangers are overly dependent on their top-four and have no room for error if one of them struggles or gets injured.  Ottawa also has a much more offensively productive blueline.

Forwards (compared by TOI)
Spezza (80-34-50-84 +11 19:55)-Callahan (76-29-25-54 -8 21:02)
Michalek (77-35-25-60 +4 19:33)-Richards (82-25-41-66 -1 20:15)
Alfredsson (75-27-32-59 +16 18:56)-Gaborik (82-41-35-76 +15 19:30)
Turris (55-12-17-29 +10 16:51)-Stepan (82-17-34-51 +14 18:56)
Greening (82-17-20-37 -4 15:35)-Dubinsky (77-10-24-34 +16 16:16)
Foligno (82-15-32-47 +2 14:38)-Anisimov (79-16-20-36 +12 15:24)
Condra (81-8-17-25 +11 14:09)-Boyle (82-11-15-26 +2 15:14)
Smith (81-14-12-26 +4 14:04)-Hagelin (64-14-24-38 +21 15:02)
Neil (72-13-15-28 -10 12:47)-Fedotenko (73-9-11-20 -7 13:35)
O’Brien (28-3-3-6 +6 11:45)-Prust (82-5-12-17 -1 11:56)
Daugavins (65-5-6-11 -2 11:19)-Mitchell (63-5-11-16 +10 10:09)
Winchester (32-2-6-8 +2 10:38)-Rupp (60-4-1-5 -1 6:38)

The Rangers have a slight physical edge with their forward group, but otherwise I don’t see a distinct advantage either way.

Goaltenders
Anderson (63-33-22-6 2.84 .914 TOI 3492:18)-Lundqvist (62-39-18-5 1.97 .930 TOI 3753:30)
Bishop (10-3-3-2 2.48 .909 TOI 531:39)-Biron (21-12-6-2 2.46 .904 TOI 1220:01)

Lundqvist is a better goaltender–there’s no argument to be made that he isn’t–but he hasn’t brought that talent to the playoffs yet and for whatever reason Ottawa has enjoyed success against him (recently and historically).  There’s no real alternative for the Rangers if Lundqvist gets hurt or struggles, whereas the Sens have confidence in both Bishop and Lehner.

Take the numbers for what they’re worth.  Hockey is a game of emotion and momentum and it’s hard to predict.  In Ottawa’s favour is that winning either of the first two games is a bonus–all the pressure is on the heavily favoured Rangers.  It’s already been a successful season for the Senators and whereas anything other than a long playoff run would be a disappointment for New York.

April 11, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: April 11th

-Here’s my playoff preview, with a more detailed look at Ottawa’s series to come.  Like most of the experts I haven’t picked many upsets (going by the overall standings I’ve only picked one in the first round; my Cup prediction takes a hit as the Bruins have reported Nathan Horton will miss the entire post-season).

–Jason Spezza talks about the upcoming series, “They’re a team that tries to play similar to how we try to play, a physical up-tempo game. We’ll try to get pucks behind them, we want to be on the offence. That makes it an easier game for us. They’re a team we’ve looked at all year and tried to play similar to, because we respect them and think they play the game the right way. We feel we play the game the right way, too so that’s why we think it can be a good series.”  Chris Phillips said, “The biggest thing, is not playing defence. Get the puck quickly and we’re moving it to a teammate, or a forward, if we have it and we’re skating out of the zone. Get to the puck first, be hard on them and make good plays.”

-TSN’s playoff preview show was last night and it was a welcome relief after the nonsense of Sportsnet‘s preview on the weekend.  Like most prognosticators the panel favoured Pittsburgh to win the Cup.

-Sens bloggers are taking their kick at the cat for predictions, with The Silver Seven dragging it out as much as possible with articles separated by position.  Unfortunately, there’s not much statistical information used to back up what’s said and their opinions are all over the map, so I can’t recommend the series.  Neither 6th Sens nor Senshot have posted their previews yet, while Jeremy Milks at Black Aces has only written about John Tortorella.  Sens Chirp offers his opinion, but there’s no data behind it, just his gut feel.  Travis Yost spent a few minutes looking at the numbers and includes something I hadn’t read before–Ottawa has a career winning record against Lundqvist (11-12-2).  Normally there’s not much stock in career numbers against a team, but some of the Senators core has been around as long as the Ranger goaltender.

–Sports Illustrated and TSN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 14th and 10th (Pittsburgh is 1st in both).  Adrian Dater writes, “A preseason poll of the league’s pundits probably would have found about five  percent of them predicting that this team would make the playoffs. But here are  the Senators, thanks to solid coaching by Paul MacLean, great years from Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza, and some strong goaltending from Craig Anderson. This  team is big and it can skate, but it’s probably not deep enough for a deep  playoff run.”

–Joy Lindsay Tweets Binghamton’s lines at practice: Dziurzynski-Cannone-Petersson, Hoffman-Zibanejad-Downing, Schneider-Da Costa-Parrish, Puempel-Grant-Bartlett/Lessard; Borowiecki-Schira, Blood-Conboy, Wiercioch-Gryba.

–Jeremy Roenick is another commentator who calls the Penguins whiners (if you watch the Sportsnet intro video for the story, critics of Crosby and Malkin are called whiners by the host–classy!).

April 11, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

2012 Playoff Preview

With the matchups set prognosticators around the hockey world are gauging the auguries and making feverish calculations on their abacuses, here are my thoughts on round one.  A few points before I get into the specific series:
1. Team’s rarely repeat Cup runs; the classic exceptions are Detroit and Pittsburgh (08 and 09), but all other finalists since the lockout have failed early (Carolina and Edmonton to make the playoffs; only Philadelphia moved as far as the second round)
2. The Cup winner has been no lower than 8th overall in the NHL (Carolina and Anaheim were 4th, Detroit 1st, Pittsburgh 8th, Chicago 3rd, and Boston 7th), which means while the President’s Trophy is largely meaningless, a team must be among the best to win it all (following this formula the potential Cup winners are Vancouver, the Rangers, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Philadelphia, Boston, and Detroit)
3. Playoff experience is something that gets thrown around as a vital ingredient over and over again, but I’ve never seen actual data to show that it equals success (for recent Cup winners it works with Boston, but not Chicago)–if it was a vital criteria than Detroit should win the Cup every year
4. The idea that teams need to lose before they win is simply absurd–29 teams lose every year, so other than the Cup winner it’s axiomatic for everyone
5. The officiating will be awful (Ottawa favourites Dan O’Rourke, Kevin Pollock and Tim Peel have made it into the playoffs, while Greg Kimmerly is on standby and Dean Morton didn’t make it); calls will be missed and bad calls will be made (including goals reviewed)

New York Rangers (2nd)-Ottawa (16th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)

Conventional wisdom says good defence beats good offence and if that holds true than the Rangers should beat Ottawa.  There are, however, examples that run against that wisdom with the Rangers, who have lost in that same situation to Washington twice (in 09 and 11).  The Senators don’t have the firepower of those Capital teams, but that and their season series record does provide some hope.  The Sens have more offensively depth, while the Rangers have an edge in physical forwards.  All the pressure is on New York and a loose and healthy Ottawa team could take the series.  I feel like the Rangers’ problems scoring will prove to be their achilles heel.  Ottawa in seven.

Boston (7th)-Washington (15th)
Season Series: Boston 1-2-1/Washington 3-1-0
Goals For: 269 (Bos, 2nd), 222 (Wsh, 15th)
Goals Against: 202 (Bos, 5th), 230 (Wsh, 18th)
Powerplay: 17.2% (Bos, 15th), 16.7% (Wsh, 18th)
Penalty Kill: 83.5% (Bos, 11th), 81.6% (Wsh, 21st)
Faceoffs: 54.5% (Bos, 1st), 50% (Wsh, 17th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.32 (Bos, 3rd), 1.01 (Wsh, 13th)
Shots Against Per Game: 29.8 (Bos, 13th), 30.2 (Wsh, 16th)

Boston has all the numbers in this series and should win, but the crazy thing about Washington is that they have enough talent to pull off an upset (they won the season series, for instance).  The Caps are down to their third goalie however, and if the Bruins can stay healthy they should beat the Capitals.  Boston in six.

Florida (14th)-New Jersey (9th)
Season Series: Florida 2-1-1/New Jersey 2-2-0
Goals For: 228 (NJ, 11th), 203 (Flo, 25th)
Goals Against: 209 (NJ, 8th), 227 (Flo, 17th)
Powerplay: 18.5% (Flo, 7th), 17.2% (NJ, 14th)
Penalty Kill: 89.6% (NJ, 1st), 79.5% (Flo, 25th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Flo, 11th), 47.1% (NJ, 29th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 0.93 (NJ, 19th), 0.88 (Flo, 25th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.8 (NJ, 2nd), 30.5 (Flo, 18th)

A statistical mismatch is almost everyway the one advantage the Panthers have (their powerplay) won’t be much of a factor given how rarely the Devils are penalized.  Brodeur has been slowing down for years and hasn’t been good in the playoffs post-lockout, but I’m not a fan of Theodore and think he’ll out play him.  While the Panthers did win the season series, I’d be shocked if they beat New Jersey.  Jersey in five.

Pittsburgh (4th)-Philadelphia (6th)
Season Series: Philadelphia 4-2-0/Pittsburgh 2-3-1
Goals For: 282 (Pit, 1st), 264 (Phi, 3rd)
Goals Against: 221 (Pit, 12th), 232 (Phi, 21st)
Powerplay: 19.7% (Pit/Phi, 5th/6th)
Penalty Kill: 87.8% (Pit, 3rd), 81.8% (Phi, 17th)
Faceoffs: 50.4% (Pit, 13th), 48.3% (Phi, 24th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.17 (Pit, 5th), 1.13 (Phi, 7th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (Pit, 4th), 28.4 (Phi, 7th)

Two of the highest scoring teams in the league, I think the Penguins have the physical edge and I expect the series to get goofy in an awful hurry.  Injuries are to be expected.  I don’t like the goaltending on either team (I’m not a fan of Fleury), but the Penguins own all the statistical edges and are healthier going into the series so they should pull it out.  Pittsburgh in seven.

Vancouver (1st)-Los Angeles (13th)
Season Series: Vancouver 2-1-1/Los Angeles 2-2-0
Goals For: 249 (Van, 4th), 194 (LA, 29th)
Goals Against: 179 (LA, 2nd), 198 (Van, 4th)
Powerplay: 19.8% (Van, 4th), 17% (LA, 17th)
Penalty Kill: 87% (LA, 4th), 86% (Van, 6th)
Faceoffs: 52.2% (Van, 3rd), 51.5% (LA, 7th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.19 (Van, 4th), 0.98 (LA, 17th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (LA, 5th), 30.8 (Van, 21st)

This series comes down to defence and Jonathan Quick.  The only chance the Kings have of winning is to shut down the Canucks and have Quick win the series for them, but I think that’s unlikely.  Vancouver is strong defensively and has two goaltenders who can win games for them, minimizing the Kings’ advantage, and teams that can’t score don’t win the Cup in the post-lockout era.  Canucks in five.

St. Louis (3rd)-San Jose (12th)
Season Series: St. Louis 4-0-0/San Jose 0-4-0
Goals For: 228 (SJ, 12th), 210 (Stl, 22nd)
Goals Against: 165 (Stl, 1st), 210 (SJ, 10th)
Powerplay: 21.1% (SJ, 2nd), 16.7% (Stl, 19th)
Penalty Kill: 85.8% (Stl, 7th), 76.9% (SJ, 29th)
Faceoffs: 53.3% (SJ, 2nd), 50.4% (Stl, 14th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.34 (Stl, 2nd), 1.10 (SJ, 9th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.7 (Stl, 1st), 28.6 (SJ, 8th)

The Blues own most of the statistical edges and dominated the Sharks in the regular season series; given San Jose’s lengthy history of playoff chokes there’s little reason to expect St. Louis to lose.  Blues in five.

Phoenix (11th)-Chicago (10th)
Season Series: Phoenix 3-1-0/Chicago 1-2-1
Goals For: 248 (Chi, 7th), 216 (Phx, 17th)
Goals Against: 204 (Phx, 7th), 238 (Chi, 22nd)
Powerplay: 15.2% (Chi, 26th), 13.6% (Phx, 29th)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (Phx, 8th), 78.1% (Chi, 27th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Chi, 12th), 50.2 (Phx, 15th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.11 (Phx, 8th), 1.01 (Chi, 14th)
Shots Against Per Game: 28.6 (Chi, 9th), 31.6 (Phx, 28th)

Two teams with underwhelming goaltending, it’s a good offence against a good defence.  I think the dynamic of the series changes if Toews is able to play, but even without their captain the intangibles go to the Hawks.  Chicago in six.

Nashville (5th)-Detroit (8th)
Season Series: 3-3-0
Goals For: 248 (Det, 6th), 237 (Nsh, 8th)
Goals Against: 203 (Det, 6th), 210 (Nsh, 9th)
Powerplay: 21.6% (Nsh, 1st), 16.1% (Det, 22nd)
Penalty Kill: 83.6% (Nsh, 10th), 81.8% (Det, 18th)
Faceoffs: 51.6% (Det, 6th), 49.0% (Nsh, 22nd)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.44 (Det, 1st), 1.05 (Nsh, 10th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.0 (Det, 3rd), 30.8 (Nsh, 20th)

A difficult series to call and it has to be kept in mind that Rinne has played 73 games this season (!).  A physical Nashville team could wear down Detroit, but ultimately I think goaltending is going to be the key and assuming Rinne still has gas left in the tank the edge has to go to the Predators.  Nashville in seven.

The second round would look like this:
Boston–Ottawa
The Bruins have the Sens number and Ottawa will be gased after beating the Rangers.  Boston in five.
Pittsburgh–New Jersey
An emotionally drained and physically exhausted Penguin team will be stymied by their boring opponent (who will likely employ the box-out strategy the Habs used to beat the Penguins two years ago).  New Jersey in six.
Vancouver–Chicago
Yet another rematch between the two teams, the edge goes to the Canucks if they are healthy.  Vancouver in six
St. Louis–Nashville
Eventually a team has to score goals and I think the punchless Blues will suffer due to their lack of offence.  Nashville in six.

The third round:
Boston–New Jersey
The Devils don’t match up well against the Bruins at all and will be run out of the rink.  Boston in five.
Vancouver–Nashville
The Canucks are going to be beaten up (emotionally and physically) and will run out of gas.  Nashville in seven.

Cup final:
Boston–Nashville
An interesting match-up in many ways, but the Bruins will be healthier and they’ve been here before.  Boston in five.

April 10, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Senators News: April 10th

-Like everyone else I made pre-season predictions and it’s time to look at how I did.  I kept my prognostication to the Eastern Conference (with publications cited alongside me, McK=McKeens, THN=The Hockey News), with their actual positions in bold:

1. Washington (McK 1st, THN 1st, TSN 1st) 8th
2. Boston (McK 4th, THN 3rd, TSN 3rd) 2nd
3. Philadelphia (McK 8th, THN 4th, TSN 4th) 5th
4. Pittsburgh (McK 3rd, THN 2nd, TSN 2nd) 4th
5. Buffalo (McK 2nd, THN 6th, TSN 6th) 9th
6. Tampa Bay (McK 6th, THN 5th, TSN 5th) 10th
7. Montreal (McK 5th, THN 9th, TSN 8th) 15th
8. New York Rangers (McK 7th, THN 7th, TSN 7th) 1st
9. Carolina (McK 11th, THN 10th, TSN 11th) 12th
10. New Jersey (McK 10th, THN 12th, TSN 9th) 6th
11. Toronto (McK 9th, THN 8th, TSN 10th) 13th
12. Winnipeg (McK 14th, THN 13th, TSN 12th) 11th
13. Ottawa (McK 15th, THN 15th, TSN 15th) 8th
14. New York Islanders (McK 11th, THN 11th, TSN 13th) 14th
15. Florida (McK 13th, THN 14th, TSN 14th) 3rd

So I was exactly right with three of my predictions (Boston, Pittsburgh, and the Islanders), and picked 5 of 8 playoff teams.  My biggest error was the Florida Panthers.  How does that compare to the publications?  Here’s the breakdown (exact/playoff teams):
Eye on the Sens 3/5
TSN 0/5
THN 0/5
McKeens 0/5

All of us only predicted five of the Eastern playoff teams, each predicting Washington, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and the New York Rangers correctly. McKeens had Florida highest at 13th, while I had Ottawa highest at 13th, and TSN picked New Jersey to be 9th.

–Katie Strang and Allen Panzeri predict the Sens will lose to the Rangers in seven, while Scott Cullen predicts the Rangers to win in six.

–Zack Smith talked about the biggest lesson learned during Binghamton’s Calder Cup run, “I learned that you have to control your emotions a lot better, too. It’s a seven-game series and you can’t get carried away.”

–ESPN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 16th (“Every season there’s a team that exceeds everyone’s regular-season expectations, and the playoffs come as a nice bonus. That’s Ottawa this year; there were few better stories in the NHL. Now the Senators need to prove they’re not just happy to be here. That they’re still hungry to prove more“).

-Elmira won 4-2 last night to eliminate Reading and move on to the next series.  Brian Stewart got the win, while Corey Cowick scored twice and Jack Downing picked up an assist.

-Prospect updates for those still playing (their position in team scoring is noted in brackets, defence compared to defence):
CHL
Stefan Noesen (C/RW, Plymouth, OHL) 6-7-7-14 (1st) (injured; Plymouth trails Saginaw 2-1)
Shane Prince (C/LW, Ottawa 67s, OHL) 8-6-4-10 (2nd) (67′s tied 1-1 with Barrie)
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, Chicoutimi, QMJHL) 6-2-6-8 (3rd) (Chicoutimi is tied 1-1 with Shawinigan)
Darren Kramer (C/LW, Spokane, WHL) 7-3-3-6 (4th) (Spokane is tied 1-1 with Tri-City)
Mark Stone (RW, Brandon, WHL) 7-2-4-6 (2nd) (Brandon is down 0-2 to Edmonton)
Jakub Culek (C/LW, Rimouski, QMJHL) 6-2-3-5 (8th) (Rimouski is tied 1-1 with Blainville-Boisbriand)
SEL
Jakob Silfverberg (C/RW, Brynas) 11-7-6-13 (1st) (Brynas plays Skelleftea in the finals)
Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, Djurgarden) 10-4-2-6 (3rd) (Djurgarden was relegated)
Fredrik Claesson (D, Djurgarden) 10-1-1-2 (3rd) (Djurgarden was relegated)
Allsvenskan
Marcus Sorensen (RW, Boras) 7-2-0-2 (12th) (Boras survived in relegation)

April 10, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: April 9th

–Kevin Sellathamby turns off his spell check and looks at the Mike Green–Erik Karlsson comparison.  It’s not something that worries me as a fan–I think Green is a more physical player, but looser defensively–but for those who are anxious for Karlsson to win the Norris it’s worth checking out.

-Here’s my review of the Sens regular season and my profile of Sens prospect Mark Stone.

–Ian Mendes provides a boatload of trivia going into the Ottawa-Ranger series.  One bit not included: seven players who won the Calder Cup with Binghamton last year are on their roster–I’m guessing that’s a record.

–Joy Lindsay Tweets that Mika Zibanejad is in Ottawa and is expected to play in Binghamton’s final two games on the weekend.

–Nicholas J. Cotsonika points out that despite the supposed parity in the NHL no team outside the top-four conference seeds has won the Cup since 1995 (New Jersey).  Post-lockout, only three #8 seeds have won (3 times in 6 years; Edmonton in 06, Anaheim 09, and Montreal in 10) and only two #7’s (Colorado in 06 and Philadelphia in 10).  Cotsonika also provides his predictions and in Ottawa’s case see’s them losing in seven games with a realistic chance of an upset.

–Chris Stevenson makes his first round predictions and picks the Sens to beat the Rangers in seven.

–Central Scouting‘s final rankings for the 2012 draft were released this morning.  CS ranks players in an odd way, with goalies separated out and European and North American players compared only to each other.

-Here’s a look at the entertainment value of each series.  Defense tends to dominate the playoffs as scoring plunges due to a lack of special teams play.  From best to worst, here are the series worth watching (Greg Wyshynski tackles the same issue and his rankings are in brackets):
1. Pittsburgh-Philadelphia (1)
Both teams hate each other, have players who play on (and over) the edge, and they both play an aggressive style
2. Nashville-Detroit (3)
While the Preds are defensive minded, they use an aggressive forecheck system and that combined with the Wings puck-possession and the teams mutual animosity should produce entertaining hockey
3. Boston-Washington (2)
This could turn into a snore-fest, but both teams have the potential to play energetic styles
4. New York Rangers-Ottawa (6)
The Sens are a loose team defensively and like to push the pace, while the Rangers will forecheck aggressively
5. Vancouver-Los Angeles (4)
The Kings play a style that makes your eyeballs bleed, but if the Canucks can push the pace it might create some excitement
6. Phoenix-Chicago (7)
The Coyotes are yet another dull team to watch, but the Hawks are a fun team to watch and might force Phoenix into something palatable
7. St. Louis-San Jose (5)
A defensive juggernaut playing a notorious playoff choker
8. New Jersey-Florida (8)
Putting the style of play aside, does anyone care about this series?  Two of the NHL’s least interesting teams

-I had the misfortune of watching Sportsnet‘s playoff preview on Saturday and have no way to get my two hours back.  It featured Scott Morrison, Damian Cox, Denis Potvin, and a bunch of other people whose opinions hold the weight of a wet paper towel.  I sometimes wonder if TSN looks as good as it does simply because of how bad Sportsnet and Hockey Night in Canada are.  The analysis from Sportsnet can be summed up like this: Nick Kypreos played for the Rangers, Mike Keenan coached the Rangers, Neil Smith managed the Rangers, and, er, everyone is confused by criticism of Crosby and the Penguins and theorize it can only be professional jealousy.

-Not to be out done with useless analysis, Pierre McGuire threw his hat into the ring this morning on The Team 1200 and offered the following chestnuts: 1) the Rangers previous playoff failures (referencing 09 and 11, although the Rangers haven’t made it past the second round post-lockout) were not due to Henrik Lundqvist being overplayed, 2) the Rangers playoff failures make them better suited for success this year.  If there’s logic in that I can’t find it.  Let’s use Pierre-think on Ottawa: the Sens lost in 2010 as did Craig Anderson with Colorado, therefore those failures have taught them lessons that will lead to success.  Hell, if failure leads to success then the Canucks should win the Cup, right?  No, wait, 15 teams in the playoffs this year didn’t win last year, so they will all have success!  Given how rarely teams repeat as Stanley Cup winners, suggesting failure leads to success is going to work in at least one case every year.

April 9, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Prospect Profile: Mark Stone

Mark Stone (RW, 6’2, DOB 1992, 6-178/10)
2008-09 WHL Brandon 56-17-22-39 -5 27pim (ppg 0.69) 10th pts
2009-10 WHL Brandon 39-11-17-28 +13 25pim (ppg 0.71) 9th
2010-11 WHL Brandon 71-37-69-106 +14 28pim (ppg 1.49) 1st all-star
2011-12 WHL Brandon 66-41-82-123 +45 22pim (ppg 1.86) 1st
2011-12 WJC Canada 6-7-3-10 +10 2pim (1.66) 1st

Nearing the end of a fantastic year where he finished second in scoring in the WHL (behind Brendan Shinnimin) and was a star in the World Junior Championships for Canada, Mark Stone was signed before the season began and will play in Binghamton next year.  The year he was drafted he was projected as a fourth-line player (ranked #119 by Central Scouting), with Red Line Report saying, “Big winger has nice hands, but skating issues drop him on our list.  Stride saw improvement this season, but is still a problem – heavy footed and has a short stride.  Has good hands in close and a decent passing touch, but tends to be a garbage goal scorer and we’ve only seen rare glimpses of an accurate shooting touch.  Makes accurate passes and is especially adept at finding linemates in transition. Very good at protecting the puck, but skating keeps him from being able to drive the net with authority.  Despite good size and decent strength, doesn’t use the body at all.  Tends to be a bit timid in board battles and doesn’t initiate much contact.  Progress stalled this season due to broken thumb and concussion.”  The injuries referenced by RLR played a big role in his stock falling at the draft (as did his place on a stacked Brandon team, with Stone playing third line minutes).  Hockey Futures says, “The size and hands are there as is the willingness to work the boards and get to the dirty areas. In the offensive end he has good instincts, an underrated shot and impressive passing skills. His hockey IQ is way up there and his anticipation allows him to get in good position on both ends of the ice. The one noticeable weakness is his choppy stride which he’s working on and has spent time with the Ottawa skating coach improving his foot-speed. Smart on the ice and well-spoken off of it, Stone has the talent, intensity and work ethic to get himself to the NHL in time.”  Here’s Stone being interviewed after scoring the OT winner at this year’s rookie tournament, and here’s a goal from the World Junior Championships.

April 9, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

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