With New Year’s celebrations about to begin I thought along with good wishes to all of you I’d catch up on some Sens news.

Sheer Craziness offers a largely tongue-in-cheek series of resolutions for the Sens hockey community and I wanted to echo one I especially agree with that may not seem to warrant the emphasis of others:

3. Lose the buzzwords
Let’s face it: terms like ‘grit’, ‘character’, and especially ‘compete level’ mean almost nothing. They’re words you use to describe a veteran player who isn’t very good anymore, or a badly out-shot team who wins a few games in a row. With a few notable exceptions (looking at you, Alex Kovalev) everyone in the NHL competes. Only in very rare circumstances can you will yourself to victory. Let’s stop kidding ourselves.

Among one of the biggest flaws in actual sports journalism is an over reliance on vague and meaningless analysis accompanied by such buzz words.  “Compete level” has as much to do with hockey success as gummy bears and while I don’t expect anything to change I truly wish it would.

Nichols wonders if the Sens will deal Craig Anderson with their playoff hopes spiralling down the drain.  It would make a great deal of sense–the veteran goaltender ought to be on a Cup or at least playoff contender–but the Sens have shown a great deal of reluctance of moving veteran assets when their value is high.  If they do trade the goaltender, they’ll need a rental to backup for Robin Lehner, as Andrew Hammond is not ready (although see the Mannino news below).

Jack Leiper likes the look of Colin Greening via his Corsi numbers (something Dustin Nelson pointed out a couple of weeks earlier).  There are a couple of things to take away from the fact (keeping in mind the small sample size): 1) savvy NHL teams may be aware of the fact and that might mean there’s a trading partner for him, 2) the Sens may decide to wait for Greening‘s production (such as it is) to come closer to the underlying stats.

The B-Sens signed free agent goaltender Peter Mannino to an AHL contract.  Mannino was bumping around minor league rosters this season without the security of a full contract; the thirty-year old has served as an AHL backup the three previous seasons.  The roster addition could be an indictment of Andrew Hammond‘s ability to carry the load, insurance in case of injury given how short the organisation is on goaltenders (Jeff Ulmer is confused by the move), or a necessary step to make trading Anderson possible.

For anyone who wants to keep track of Evansville this season, here’s a blog dedicated to the team.

Enjoy the evening everyone!

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 31, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

As the holiday whirlwind begins to settle down it’s time to take another gander at Sens news from the last week or so.

Ottawa lost their only game since my last post 2-1 to Washington and there’s not a whole lot to squeeze from that game.  The Sens did sign Nick Paul to an ELC (about which more below), adding yet another forward to their depth down the line.

The B-Sens won their only game since last time (3-0 over Wilkes-Barre), with Scott Greenham picking up the shutout and the Ohio State boys (Ryan Dzingel and Max McCormick) picking up the goals.  Evansville is 1-0-1 since my last post.

Amelia takes a look at TOI under Cameron–admittedly a small sample size–and the main takeaways from her are:
–Chris Phillips‘ lost ice time (when he plays) is going to Eric Gryba, Mark Borowiecki, and Jared Cowen
–Erik Condra, Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad, and Kyle Turris are playing more while David Legwand, Zack Smith, and Colin Greening are playing less
Amelia is right that it’s too early to make conclusions, but the huge change in ice time for Phillips, Legwand, Greening, and Smith are all good things and I hope they continue.

Silver Sevener theianalex tries to project Nick Paul into the future, but the article is saddled with limited information (the largely useless assessments from Hockey’s Future, a brief comment from Corey Pronman, and broad unsourced comparative numbers).  Assessing a prospect is never easy even when you have the best possible scouting information, so I applaud the effort while wishing there was more substance to it.  You can read scouting reports from Paul‘s draft year here and get an idea about draft success post-lockout here (a limited sample size, but a more applicable one).

Speaking of Paul, we have thoughts on he and the other Sens prospects at the WJC (Andreas Englund and Curtis Lazar) from the above writer.

As for the WJC tournament itself, it is just underway so there’s not much to be drawn from it yet.  I would love to see some data about how players who participate in it perform as pros, but I suspect I will have to do so myself.  Anecdotally I’d suggest not putting much stock into the performances.

I’d been ignoring the stories about the Sens seeking a new arena until the piece I’ve linked (with the Sens making a formal request the redevelop LeBreton Flats).  It could be posturing on Melnyk’s part, an attempt to get concessions for SBP or for other projects, but it may also be a real effort on his part.  I’m not sure how well conceived the location is, even if the obvious plus of an arena not being in Kanata is there.

Moribund first-round pick Jim O’Brien has landed back in the AHL (Hershey) after being released from the KHL (Metallurg).  Speaking of moribund, Kyle Wharton, who participated in the 2009 Sens rookie tournament, was released from his Austrian team.

Prospect update (most were on Christmas break)

SHL (Sweden)
Mikael Wikstrand (DOB 1993, DL, 7-196/12, Frolunda) 26-3-6-9
No points in his game
Andreas Englund (DOB 1996, DL, 2-40/14, Djurgarden) 30-1-3-4
On the Swedish WJC roster so hasn’t played
Marcus Hogberg (DOB 1994, GL, 3-78/13, Linkoping) 4-6-0 2.65 .903
Was loaned to Oskarshamin in the Allsvenskan where he’s posted a 1.66 GAA and .934 save percentage in six games

CHL
Francis Perron (DOB 1996, C/LW, 7-190/14, QMJHL, Rouyn-Noranda) 32-17-25-42
Has not played since last time
Tobias Lindberg (DOB 1995, C/RW, 4-102/13, OHL, Oshawa) 31-13-26-39
Has not played since last time
Nick Paul (DOB 1995, LW, 4-101/13 Dallas, OHL, North Bay) 27-19-15-34
Has not played since he’s at Canada’s WJC camp
Vincent Dunn (DOB 1995, CL, 5-138/13, QMJHL, Rimouski) 30-12-10-22
Has not played since last time
Ben Harpur (DOB 1995, DL, 4-108/13, OHL, Guelph) 24-4-16-20
No points in his last game
Miles Gendron (DOB 1996, DL, 3-70/14, BCHL, Penticton) 36-4-10-14
No points in his last game

NCAA
Quentin Shore (DOB 1994, C/RW, 6-168/13, U Denver) 14-6-7-13
Hasn’t played since last time
Shane Eiserman (DOB 1995, LW, 4-100/14, U New Hampshire) 12-3-2-5
Hasn’t played since last time
Chris Leblanc (DOB 1993, RW, 6-161/13, Merrimack) 8-3-0-3
Hasn’t played since last time
Robbie Baillargeon (DOB 1993, CR, 5-136/12, Boston U) 7-1-1-2
Hasn’t played since last time
Kelly Summers (DOB 1996, DR, 7-189/14, Clarkson) 15-0-1-1
Hasn’t played since last time

NCAA-III
Tim Boyle (DOB 1993, DR, 4-106/12, Endicott) 15-3-8-11
Hasn’t played since last time

Best of the season to everyone!

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 27, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

A pretty quiet week in Sensland has finally opened up with news of note.  Ottawa spanked Mr. Universe and the Anaheim Ducks 6-2 (I’m sure all were quietly thrilled Frederik Andersen wasn’t between the pipes), which comes off the heels of an uninspired 2-0 win over the Devils and a shootout loss to the red-hot Sabres (5-4).

Sanity at last prevailed with management as Curtis Lazar was loaned to Canada’s WJC team.  Nichols raises the salient point:

I do think this decision opens the organization up to some second-guessing for their original decision not to return Lazar back to junior at the beginning of the season.

Yes Nichols, although it’s not second-guessing: it was questioned right out of the gate.  If there’s one thing this organisation has an overabundance of its depth forwards (I’d say there are six in the Bingo lineup), so there was no need to have Lazar play more than the obligatory nine games.

Along with the dawn of common sense the injury gods have blessed the Sens by pulling Chris Neil and Zack Smith from the lineup.  While it’s not guaranteed that the Smith wrist injury is long-term, if it is we’ll at last be able to witness how irrelevant both players are to the team’s success.  The roster changes have brought Jean-Gabriel Pageau back into the lineup.

Christopher Boucher provides the data confirming the obvious that the dump-in strategy is not every effective offensively, but does work as a defensive play.

Binghamton is in the midst of a three game losing streak that includes ugly losses to the Phantoms and Falcons, where Andrew Hammond was awful in both and started all three games.  While there was plenty of time between starts, it’s become apparent that Hammond needs to start less to be effective.  Given that Scott Greenham has played reasonably well I see no reason for Luke Richardson to not mix it up more (his Hammond addiction is something I’ve addressed previously).  Brad Mills, having served his PED suspension, should have been sent down to Evansville, but is playing for whatever reason.

In Evansville Troy Rutkowski has points in his last two games while Chris Driedger has now lost five straight starts (good numbers in two of them, awful numbers in one).  In a B-Sen flashback, former Sen draft pick Jim McKenzie is now on the roster.  Jakub Culek, who ought to be logging time in the ECHL, is still just practicing with Binghamton.

Prospect update

[Update: Nick Paul was just signed to his ELC]

SHL (Sweden)
Mikael Wikstrand (DOB 1993, DL, 7-196/12, Frolunda) 25-3-6-9
Has no points in his last two games
Andreas Englund (DOB 1996, DL, 2-40/14, Djurgarden) 30-1-3-4
No points in his last two games
Marcus Hogberg (DOB 1994, GL, 3-78/13, Linkoping) 4-6-0 2.65 .903
Lost his last start

CHL
Francis Perron (DOB 1996, C/LW, 7-190/14, QMJHL, Rouyn-Noranda) 32-17-25-42
Three points over his last three games; 18th in overall scoring
Tobias Lindberg (DOB 1995, C/RW, 4-102/13, OHL, Oshawa) 31-13-26-39
Four points in his last four games; up to 14th in overall scoring
Nick Paul (DOB 1995, LW, 4-101/13 Dallas, OHL, North Bay) 27-19-15-34
Has not played as he’s at Canada’s WJC camp
Vincent Dunn (DOB 1995, CL, 5-138/13, QMJHL, Rimouski) 30-12-10-22
Five points in his last four games
Ben Harpur (DOB 1995, DL, 4-108/13, OHL, Guelph) 23-4-16-20
Finally cooling off with one point in his last five
Miles Gendron (DOB 1996, DL, 3-70/14, BCHL, Penticton) 35-4-10-14
One point in his last four

NCAA
Quentin Shore (DOB 1994, C/RW, 6-168/13, U Denver) 14-6-7-13
Two points in his last two games
Shane Eiserman (DOB 1995, LW, 4-100/14, U New Hampshire) 12-3-2-5
Two points in his last two
Chris Leblanc (DOB 1993, RW, 6-161/13, Merrimack) 8-3-0-3
Has not played since my last update
Robbie Baillargeon (DOB 1993, CR, 5-136/12, Boston U) 7-1-1-2
Has not played since my last update
Kelly Summers (DOB 1996, DR, 7-189/14, Clarkson) 15-0-1-1
No points in his last game

NCAA-III
Tim Boyle (DOB 1993, DR, 4-106/12, Endicott) 15-3-8-11
One point in his last three

I’ve been bemused by all the chatter dissecting yet another failed season for the Edmonton Oilers, particularly the talk about a “losing culture.”  For me that sentiment is right up there with all the other empty clichés we hear throughout the sporting world (if only there was a moratorium on players “giving 110%”).  There’s no mystery to the Oilers problems–poor management, awful coaching, no goaltending and a middling defense is all it takes, and the first problem leads to all the others (Travis Yost believes goaltending was the biggest problem).  Why fans reach for nebulous reasons (“good character” and whatever other nonsense you want to pick) when there are tangible, irrefutable factual reasons for the problems.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 20, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Hot chocolate and battling Red Templars apparently gets my blogging juices going.  Before we get into the various things that caught my eye, a tip of the hat to the new head coach for scratching Corsi fatality Chris Phillips against Boston (a 3-2 SO win).  I wouldn’t expect the Big Rig to sit too often, but even once is an improvement.

Results weren’t as positive for the B-Sens, as they got rocked by Hershey 5-2 on Friday (Tim Spencer is back in the AHL?), albeit they beat the Phantoms 3-1 the night before.  In the ECHL, Evansville lost back-to-back games as they slip towards the bottom of the standings.

Mrs. O wrote about coaching in relation to the departed Paul MacLean, providing a detailed breakdown on what can potentially go wrong under the theory that he lost the room (as Bryan Murray has claimed).  There’s a lot to sink your teeth into, with the four-points mentioned being: favouritism, limiting opportunities for success, instilling a fear of failure, and communicating poorly.  Throughout MacLean’s I felt he favoured veterans more than was warranted, no doubt remembering the sour end to his own NHL career.  Intermixed with that is favouritism, a common crutch for coaches, but too much coddling of particular players makes it impossible to truly reward good play and punish the bad.

On the same theme, Sheer Craziness looked at the firing and the part of the article that struck me was this:

I struggled to understand a lot of MacLean’s moves. Why Alex Chiasson got top-line minutes before Mark Stone or Mike Hoffman made it off the fourth line is beyond me. Why Neil ever played on the powerplay or in the last minute of games is baffling. Why he thought Phillips was capable of career-high minutes is mind-boggling. But to say that removing MacLean fixes the problem simplifies the problem a lot. MacLean was one loose gear in the pile of broken parts that is this team.

This is exactly the frustration of fans (and likely the players).  I think along with MacLean’s aforementioned love of veterans believed in size, which can be seen in his prior love affair with Greening or his more lingering one with Zack Smith.  Whatever the truth might be, there’s simply no justifying some of his player usage and he really did have to go.  As for MacLean’s future, well….

Jen LC takes a lengthy look at the value of a draft pick with the 2005 draft as the focus, specifically in relation to Michael E. Schuckers study from 2011.  It’s an interesting article, although I think comparative data from that point forward would have offered even more insight (for example).  She doesn’t speculate on the whys of the misses (although you can see my thoughts on what’s missed here), but does point out that many of the mid-to late round forwards who see spot duty in the NHL are so-called “energy” forwards or gritty defensemen.

I still await the eulogies for Brian Lee now that he’s retired (injury-related to his knee, suffered in the AHL two years ago).  It’s not Lee‘s fault the John Muckler thought “scouting” was a four-letter word and picked him ninth overall in 2005, but it is the kind of ignominious ending one would have imagined for such a boondoggle.  The fact that Ottawa got Matt Gilroy in return for him is just the icing on the cake.

More Sens trivia because I can:
–Jim O’Brien, yet another awful first-rounder one can foist on Muckler, has been let go by his KHL team
–Derek Smith, who somehow squeezed three years of NHL service in Calgary (!), is having an awful season with Roman Wick‘s Swiss team
–Geoff Kinrade, whose rights the Sens retained when he left, has made the move to the KHL after three years in Switzerland
–Mat Robinson, who had a cup of coffee with the team in 09-10, has managed to become a decent KHL blueliner

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 14, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

I’ve been lost in the world of Dragon Age Inquisition for awhile, but I have kept my eye on the Sens and there’s a lot to talk about.

The return and official retirement of Daniel Alfredsson was well-handled and it’s great to have Alfie back in the city and involved.  I never doubted he’d return, and whatever misgivings Eugene Melynk may or may not have had he’s too acute a businessman to not roll out the welcoming mat and bring the franchise’s most important player back in the fold.  It’s clear Alfie left in the hopes of winning a Cup and it’s unfortunate for him that Detroit’s window was not open last year.  What impact he’ll have on the team day-to-day is hard to say, but it can only help the franchise now that he’s back.

Paul MacLean’s firing wasn’t particularly surprising (Nichols offers a great breakdown; Travis Yost has thoughts as well).  I saw this season as yet another rebuilding year, but the franchise either can’t accept or admit the fact so team performance was going to knock MacLean out no matter what he did.  I don’t see Dave Cameron as an NHL coach, but it’s a results oriented business and one never knows (I’m sure Luke Richardson rumours will start soon, if they haven’t already).  He’s certainly the person Melnyk wants on the bench (as it seems everyone is aware), and Cameron is getting his shot, even if I don’t think he has the pieces to do much more than finish on the outside looking in.  I’m keen to see how he distributes ice time, but don’t anticipate there will be significant changes in that regard (and on that note, here’s more on just how awful Chris Phillips is).

In terms of player performances, there’s been crying over Erik Karlsson‘s defensive play, but given the anchors he’s saddled with every night, I don’t empathise with the complainers.  As expected, Mika Zibanejad has come out of his shell offensively since I last posted, Curtis Lazar has fallen off the map (as has Zack Smith).  Phillips is awful, Cowen is awful, etc.  We know that plus/minus is largely meaningless, but it’s worth noting just how far ahead of his teammates Mike Hoffman is (at +10 he’s six up on second-placer Patrick Wiercioch).  Many of you are wondering what Colin Greening is getting paid for, but remember Colin is a smart guy and that money will let him build a time machine to go back to 2011-12 where he can find his game (and maybe Peter Regin‘s too–why not?).

Binghamton has been on fire of late, climbing back to a respectable 11-9-3 record on the season (which, granted, only puts them 11th in the conference).  I’ll have a comprehensive update specific to roster performance shortly, but the major difference has been a number of players rounding into form (Shane Prince, Cole Schneider, and others).  Jeff Ulmer has offered grades for the team (and here), but as he provides no criteria I’m not sure what those grades tangibly mean.

Evansville has played 19 games now and sits at 8-9-1 (11th in the Conference, just like Binghamton) and we can take a look at the play of the Sens prospects there:
–Troy Rutkowski (19-1-7-8) is enjoying a much better sophomore season in the ECHL, which is faint praise for the FA signee, but at least there’s been some improvement
–Jakub Culek (5-0-1-1) has been a spare part in Binghamton most of the year and his limited playing time can’t really be judged other than its lack is a bad sign
–Chris Driedger (5-6-1 3.26 .901) buried behind Cal Heeter to start the season, after early struggles (1-4-1 with terrible numbers) he’s turned it around posting a pair of shutouts while all his numbers are improving (he’s also won both starts with Bingo)

Prospect update

SHL (Sweden)
Mikael Wikstrand (DOB 1993, DL, 7-196/12, Frolunda) 23-3-6-9
Over the last 10 games he’s picked up a goal and four assists and sits third in defensive scoring on the team
Andreas Englund (DOB 1996, DL, 2-40/14, Djurgarden) 28-1-3-4
Over his last ten games he has an assist; he’s at the Swedish WJC camp
Marcus Hogberg (DOB 1994, GL, 3-78/13, Linkoping) 4-5-0 2.43 .914
His numbers have improved substantially (especially GAA) over the past month

CHL
Francis Perron (DOB 1996, C/LW, 7-190/14, QMJHL, Rouyn-Noranda) 29-15-24-39
Has fourteen points over his last eleven games and is 17th in overall scoring in the Q
Tobias Lindberg (DOB 1995, C/RW, 4-102/13, OHL, Oshawa) 27-13-22-35
Over his last 10 games he has thirteen points and sits 16th in OHL scoring
Nick Paul (DOB 1995, LW, 4-101/13 Dallas, OHL, North Bay) 27-19-15-34
Has sixteen points in his last eleven games and is 18th in OHL scoring; he’s at Canada’s WJC camp
Vincent Dunn (DOB 1995, CL, 5-138/13, QMJHL, Rimouski) 26-11-6-17
Over his last six games he has four points
Ben Harpur (DOB 1995, DL, 4-108/13, OHL, Guelph) 18-4-15-19
Continues on a surprisingly torrid pace, with nine points in his last eight games
Miles Gendron (DOB 1996, DL, 3-70/14, BCHL, Penticton) 31-4-9-13
After initial struggles he seems to be turning it around, with seven points in his last ten games

NCAA
Quentin Shore (DOB 1994, C/RW, 6-168/13, U Denver) 12-5-6-11
Has six points in his last five games
Chris Leblanc (DOB 1993, RW, 6-161/13, Merrimack) 8-3-0-3
Three goals in his last seven games
Shane Eiserman (DOB 1995, LW, 4-100/14, U New Hampshire) 10-2-1-3
No points in his three games
Robbie Baillargeon (DOB 1993, CR, 5-136/12, Boston U) 7-1-1-2
Has not played since my last update
Kelly Summers (DOB 1996, DR, 7-189/14, Clarkson) 14-0-1-1
No points in his last seven game

NCAA-III
Tim Boyle (DOB 1993, DR, 4-106/12, Endicott) 12-3-7-10
Has six points in his last five games

I’m hesitant to include Boyle in the list as playing at Endicott indicates to me that his pro aspirations are all but over, but at least for now I’ll still list him.

Finally, I’m fond of “where are they now” tidbits and thought I’d check in on some former Sens prospects:
–Roman Wick: the Calder Cup winning (and Sens rights retaining) Swiss player is in the midst of his second consecutive season at a point-per-game pace with ZSC; I don’t think we’ll see the 28-year old cross the pond any time soon
–Kaspars Daugavins: another Calder Cup winner, the Latvian is putting up good numbers in the KHL and could (if he desired) return to the NHL as a fourth-liner or spare forward
–Andre Petersson: the fellow StarCraft-fan is putting up solid KHL numbers; at only 24 he’ll likely take another stab at the NHL, but probably only after a strong enough season in Europe to ensure a real shot
–Corey Cowick: landed on his feet with Springfield, turning a PTO into an actual contract
–Bryce Aneloski: never offered a contract after finishing his NCAA career, he’s managed to be a regular AHL call-up his first two pro seasons, but is still primarily an ECHL player
–Jeff Costello: never suited up for Ottawa and is toiling away in the ECHL during his rookie season
–Marcus Sorensen; never signed, now that he’s twenty-two he seems to have established himself as an SHL-regular and with strong enough numbers could turn that into an ELC with someone on this side of the Atlantic

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 10, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments