I fired up the Nichols stenography machine to work through Pierre Dorion’s season-ending media scrum and from it I picked my own highlights:
-I don’t think there’s any evidence that having a young player like Colin White sit in the pressbox for a playoff run has any impact on their future; it’s a bit like the belief that winning a championship leads to more winning–it’s a lovely sentiment, but it’s an article of faith rather than something you can actually demonstrate
-Dorion aggressively asserting that the team will protect Craig Anderson in the expansion draft is so ridiculous it boggles the mind–what other goaltender is there to protect?  While the clock is ticking on the 36-year old, there’s not even a stable backup option to him right now (everyone has given up on Andrew Hammond, I don’t believe in FA Mike Condon or RFA Matt O’Connor, and neither Chris Driedger nor rookie Marcus Hogberg are anywhere near ready, so yes Pierre, water is wet!  You’ll protect your only goaltender!)  I fear that Nichols is prescient when he says:

Ideally, a player like a Marcus Hogberg can elevate his game and become a factor, but the Senators may have to look at the draft or outside the organization to address this position

The Sens have been incredibly impatient with goaltenders and are far more likely to make a trade for someone they feel is further along than wait for the normal development curve
-if Bryan Murray was still GM Chris Neil would be retained without question–Murray is immensely sentimental and attached to his veterans–it remains to be seen if that’s Dorion’s feeling as well (signing a broken down Chris Kelly in the off-season certainly signals he might be)
-there’s not much to say about Dorion blowing smoke up Max McCormick‘s behind, even though he’s already peaked as a player; Nick Paul, while improving last season, got a mention largely because the press knows who he is and no other forward prospect could possibly be considered; Dorion pumping Harpur‘s tires goes back to when he was drafted (he’s big!) and despite improving he needs more time in the AHL; Chabot…it’s hard to say if he can directly make the jump (although if you believe the hyperbole Dorion certainly thinks so)
-Nichols is exactly right that Dorion will try to maintain most of the roster, convinced that the run this year is confirmation that he’s making the right moves (as opposed to benefiting from fortunate circumstances)–the overhaul Nichols wants is unlikely to occur

I’d hate to see the Senators romanticize this playoff run and the results believing that their situation can replicate itself across subsequent seasons

I think this is exactly what the org will do–it’s certainly what Bryan Murray would–but I’ll hope to be wrong
-Dorion doesn’t appreciate the irony when he says:

As much as we could probably trade Chabot for a lot of good players, but probably the players that we could get for him, probably the impact wouldn’t be as good as some of the players that we already have here. Sometimes you always think the grass is greener on the other side, but sometimes people don’t respect what you have here

The Sens can’t wait to trade away promising prospects for veterans who they think will help them now.  That lack of patience stretches all the way back into the Muckler regime and while sometimes they get away with it, in real terms it’s never truly paid off for them–zero Cup appearances in ten years and missing the playoffs four times.

Overall there was nothing surprising from Dorion.  We can still hope for positive changes and some luck with the expansion draft, but it’s more than likely next season starts with a roster with the same handicaps as the current one.

I neglected to write about the Leafs signing Miro Aaltonen (in March, despite Tweeting about it), whom I identified in my list of potential European Free Agents.  He was an Anaheim pick in 2013 (6-177), but either he or the Ducks weren’t interested in signing and Toronto signed him from Vityaz Podolsk (a teammate of former Sens prospect Alexander Nikulin, incidentally).  Similarly, I Tweeted rather than wrote about Czech defenseman Jakub Jerabek getting picked up by the Montreal Canadians in May (he also had a strong season with Vityaz).  Undersized by NHL standards (5’11), he’s been on my radar since 2015.  Swedish defenseman Oscar Fantenberg (on my radar since 2012) was signed by LA after a solid season with HK Sochi (KHL).  San Jose signed Czech defender Radim Simek (never ranked when draft-eligible); Arizona signed former Flyer draft pick (5-122/07) Mario Kempe (the Swede was playing in the KHL); Rangers signed KHL defenseman Alexei Bereglazov (I had him slatted as a late pick in 2012 on the strength of Corey Pronman and RLR, but at the time he had no interest in playing in North America and has since been unremarkable in the KHL).

Dissecting the EU FA’s that have been signed so far (17) there’s a clear preference in position:
Forwards (6): Aaltonen (Tor), Sandberg (SJ), Ejdsell (Nsh), Shipachyov (Veg), Kampf (Chi), Kempe (Ari)
Defensemen (10): Antipin (Buf), Holm (Van), Sulak (Det), Rosen (Tor), Borgman (Tor), Dyblenko (NJ), Simek (SJ), Bereglazov (NYR), Fantenberg (LA), Jerabek (Mtl)
Goaltenders (1): Machovksy (Det)

The preference for blueliners is clear–the number of forwards signed is on par with what I’m used too, but this is a huge increase in defensemen.  How much the top-performing EU blueliners (Karlsson, Hedman, Josi, Klingberg, etc) have to do with the trend I’m not sure–it might also be related to how many NCAA busts there have been–the push to sign college FA’s is nowhere near as strong as it was five years ago. Another change is how many players are being signed out of the KHL (formerly a difficult proposition): 8 of the 17 players come from that league (there’s also 5 from the SHL, 3 from the Czech league, and 1 from the Finnish Liiga).

This isn’t about SensChirp, but he serves as the Mount Rushmore of generic Sens sites.  I stumbled across a Sens blog I’d never heard of, The System, which I assumed would be about prospects and the AHL, but scrolling through it’s a carbon copy of virtually every other Sens site (which might be why there haven’t been any posts since March, despite all the playoff excitement).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 30, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Binghamton Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

What a ride its been for the Senators, foisted on the backs of a one-legged Karlsson, the league’s new playoff format, and the modern version of the trap–it’s the wackiest Ottawa run ever.  The fans who want to embrace the organisation as geniuses for getting the team this far need look no further than the man who won game six (Mike Hoffman) to have that balloon burst.  It’s less than four years ago that Hoffman was put through waivers, and the former QMJHL MVP didn’t magically become a better player because of it (and yes, 29 other NHL teams were asleep at the switch).  How much of this success is traced to scouting and how much through management moves? (I’ve put series scoring in brackets):
Erik Karlsson (1-15/09) 18-2-14-16 3 PPP (6/7/3)
The Sens rarely draft undersized defensemen and he’s miles ahead of the many other first-rounders taken since (Jared Cowen, Mika Zibanejad, Stefan Noesen, Matt Puempel, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, etc)
Bobby Ryan (t-2013) 18-6-9-15 8 PPP (7/2/6)
A disappointment in all four regular seasons with Ottawa, his second Sens playoff is the first (and sadly, likely the last) time the move has paid dividends
Mike Hoffman (5-130/09) 18-6-5-11 2 PPP (3/4/4)
A late pick on his second time through the draft (not good in the corners apparently); as mentioned above the org nearly gave up on him, but once he truly arrived in the NHL he’s been everything you could have asked for from a guy with great speed, hands, and shot; he’s a good example of the results of being patient with prospects
Derick Brassard (t-16) 18-4-7-11 4 PPP (8/1/2)
Much like Bobby Ryan the Sens gave up a younger, talented player to acquire the veteran; he showed up against Boston but has been largely invisible ever since
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11) 18-8-1-9 (1/6/2)
A smaller, offensively talented player who forced his way onto the roster
Kyle Turris (t-11) 18-4-5-9 3 PPP (2/4/3)
Acquired in the David Rundblad trade (who himself was acquired because the Sens didn’t want Vladimir Tarasenko, so let’s not get too excited over fleecing the Coyotes), this hasn’t been a great playoff for him, but there’s no doubt he represents one of Murray’s best trades
Clarke MacArthur (FA 13) 18-3-6-9 4 PPP (2/4/3)
Given his concussion problems I think many of us wish he wasn’t playing, but when healthy he’s been as advertised
Mark Stone (6-178/10) 18-4-3-7 (2/4/1)
Dropped like a stone in the draft due to injury (and his skating), the Sens scouts scored huge in picking him, albeit he’s had his struggles in this year’s playoffs
Zack Smith (3-79/08) 18-1-5-6 (1/4/1)
From what I read in blogs and in the paper he’s one of the best players in the league; picked by the team on his second trip through the draft he’s enjoying an improbable NHL career (given middling AHL numbers); he did get his second ever NHL playoff goal on the run, so that’s something
Dion Phaneuf (t-16) 18-1-4-5 (3/2/0)
Acquired from the Leafs and sentenced to a lifetime of watching Ceci attempt to play hockey; he’s been as underwhelming as advertised, but I suppose he has been as advertised; by some quirk all his points have come in just two games
Alexandre Burrows (t-17) 15-0-5-5 1PPP (1/3/1)
The fifth player on this list acquired through surrendering a talented Swedish prospect, the senior citizen broke down during the run after accomplishing nothing memorable
Marc Methot (t-12) 17-2-2-4 (0/2/2)
Acquired in the Nick Foligno trade and when healthy he’s been a great partner for Karlsson
Chris Wideman (4-100/09) 14-1-3-4 1 PPP (2/2/0)
Undersized defenseman worked his way from dominant AHL-blueliner to a useful NHL player, albeit one who has sat a few games
Fredrik Claesson (5-126/11) 13-0-3-3 (0/1/2)
One of the few Swedes to survive the org’s periodic purges, but who doesn’t love Freddy? While he occasionally struggled under Luke Richardson’s clueless regime in the AHL, he’s been solid in the NHL and on this run
Tom Pyatt (FA 16) 13-2-0-2 (0/1/1)
Signed out of the Swiss league for reasons unknown, he’s been awful when he’s played in the playoffs
Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11) 14-1-1-2 2 PPP (1/1/0)
Nichols had his doubts, but while he hasn’t had a great playoff those intangible elements are there and the future is bright for the seventh-rounder
Ben Harpur (4-108/13) 9-0-2-2 (0/2/0)
I had and still have my doubts over the lumbering blueliner, but early in the playoffs he kept things simple before returning to his puck-bumbling form
Viktor Stalberg (t-17) 16-0-2-2 (2/0/0)
The former Lear was picked off the Carolina scrapheap for a 3rd-rounder; he’s not someone you expect to score, but the defensive-minded player probably shouldn’t be at the bottom of the plus/minus heap (whatever you think of that stat)–his TOI clearly shows Boucher isn’t that happy with him
Cody Ceci (1-15/12) 18-0-1-1 (0/1/0)
How was he ever a first-round pick?  Watching him handle the pick is like a two-year old tossing a grenade, and his defensive play is worse! How Boucher can put up with him is beyond me
Tommy Wingels (t-17) 9-0-0-0
It’s amazing to me that anyone would trade for Wingels
Chris Neil (6-161/98), Chris Kelly (3-94/99), Mark Borowiecki (5-139/08)
Three guys who can’t play in the league (anymore in the case of the first too, or at all in the case of the third); in their collective five games played they accomplished nothing positive
Colin White (1-21/15) 1-0-0-0
At this stage I have no idea why the Sens burned a year off his ELC–he played two regular season games and now has 2:39 of NHL playoff action under his belt–why? Play him or not, although given the alternatives I suppose him warming the bench isn’t the worst idea
Craig Anderson (t-11) 11-7 2.36 .922
Acquired to help the Sens tank in 2011 and failed to deliver, he’s been solid in the playoffs (his save percentage is the average for all playoff goaltenders), but particularly good against Pittsburgh (if you look through the numbers he’s had seven middling to bad games–2 vs Boston, 4 vs the Rangers, and 1 against the Penguins), although I think the folks at The Silver Seven are a little over the top praising him, granted that Travis Yost agrees

So after the long list what can we pull out of it?  Fourteen drafted players (I included Kelly), ten acquired by trade, and two free agents.  Naturally the whole lineup isn’t equally significant, so in terms of prime contributors (top nine scorers and the starting goaltender) it’s 5 drafted, 4 trades, and 1 free agent.  It’s a bit of a Frankenstein collection, but frankly it all boils down to Erik Karlsson.  Without him, none of the other pieces actually matter.

Incidentally, while doing research for this I stumbled across Nichols calling Jakob Silverberg a bust last year–oops!

Generally speaking a hotstove, be it on TV or via bloggers, is only as good as it’s analysts. The Silver Seven‘s prior to game six included Callum going full Don Brennan:

Callum: More urgency and better protection in and around the crease will help immensely. But overall, just come to play in Game 6.

Words like “urgency” are things I hate in sports writing, because they imply players (for some inexplicable reason) stopped trying or didn’t care.  That’s not Callum’s intent and he’s likely picked up the language from reading and listening to other sports columnists, but it’s useless verbage. Far better to pick something tangible and specific–defensive coverage and schemes (ie, crease protection) is what you want to stick with.  Sadly, Callum doubles down:

Callum: yes, it’s about effort.

This is something Callum can’t know so it’s a useless observation.  I don’t even think it’s what he means–he’s likely thinking about decision-making–players trying things that they shouldn’t or forcing plays–but he’s far better off using that kind of phrasing.  Thankfully, everyone else who participated (Colin, Ary M, NKB, and Ross A) avoided that kind of hyperbole.

Speaking of Callum, his piece on the limited appeal of Ottawa’s run outside the area serves up as anecdotal proof of what I said in my last post about the inability of human interest stories to serve as meaningful fuel in sports.  Specifically he notes:

You’d think that the overwhelming number of heartwarming storylines within this organization would win over national media outlets and gain some respect from fanbases outside of Toronto and Montreal.

Indeed, even winning isn’t always enough.  The lack of excitement is partially due to Guy Boucher’s system, but it’s also related to the lack of a superstar outside of Erik Karlsson (and he’s someone only fully embraced by pundits this season).

Speaking of pointless, Nichols is still reading Bruce Garrioch.  I gave up on local newspaper coverage a long time ago because it doesn’t provide anything useful.  If I need official news about the org, I go to the org; if I need roster moves, I go to roster sites; if I want analysis I get that from analysts; etc.  There’s nothing coming from someone like that of any value at all.

Actually, SenShot, but that site feels like SensChirp Light (Diet SensChirp?), and I have that logo handy, so we’ll stick with it.  I don’t often check out the site, but I did look at Alexander O’Reilly‘s article leading into tonight’s game and this is what stood out to me:

The Penguins are the more skilled team but that doesn’t mean they’re the better team. The Senators are a team that is greater than the sum of their parts. This series is far from over but as of now the Sens are in the lead.

This is fantastic–this is HFBoards-worthy stuff–assertions piled on to predictions with no effort at justification whatsoever.  Why isn’t being more skilled better?  How are the Sens greater than the sum of their parts?  Why are the Sens in the lead?  Normally I encourage bloggers to avoid this kind of thing, but I want Alex to go further–be more vague–it’s more entertaining.

Two more EU FA’s were signed (not on my list).  The first by San Jose, an organisation that has made such free agents it’s business, signing 5’9 Swedish forward Filip Sandberg (he was expected to be a late 2013 pick).  Detroit then signed Czech defenseman Libor Sulak (#86 for CS back in 2012).

[Andrew posted after I did with a story so laden with sweetness it’s either genius or sickening, depending on your tastes.]

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 25, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Binghamton Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

In a game where the Sens only showed up for about 30 minutes it’s amazing that they almost came back to tie it (the overall numbers are generous to them in my opinion).  While Ottawa was able to pull off remarkable comebacks against both Boston and especially the Rangers, I don’t think they can afford going down more than a goal against Pittsburgh.  Now that Marc-Andre Fleury is stapled to the bench, even with the Penguins limited defensecorps, it’s not the kind of team you can open the floodgates on (neither the Bruins or Rangers had counterpunchers like Pittsburgh).  That said, the Sens confidence should be high as that was a winnable game and they can certainly play better.

Varada de-mothballed himself and wrote a long piece in response to this week’s Ross A article that echoes what I wrote back in January (thanks for reading boys!).  He argues that part of the problem in Ottawa is that the traditional hockey narrative of rebuilding or competing doesn’t work here (because of ownership) and that this requires a new narrative framework for those writing about the team.  He suggests that:

Ian Mendes does this all the time, covering the incredible story of Jonathan Pitre, or Kyle Turris’ involvement with the Capital City Condors

This is one way to go, although I think the appeal of human interests stories are limited within a sports context.  Personally team performance and particularly team building are what’s interesting (I think the former is the predominant interest for most fans).  To my mind a major reason for the dearth of blogging is the struggle many have in tackling the nuts & bolts of the numbers. Opinion pieces are what paid journalists supply in spades (as does every hockey forum in existence), so for bloggers to replicate that is simply redundant (Senschirp and The Silver Seven get away with it in part because they produce mountains of material–but why read Jeremy Milks talking about “good in the corners” when it’s what Don Brennan writes every column?).  For fans to seek out a blog it needs to be providing something they can’t find elsewhere and I think that played a role in the fading away of much of the Sens blogosphere.  Fortunately for bloggers, winning creates interest, so at least in the short term now is a good time to get back at it (ergo the resurrection of SenShot).  The ebbs and flows of what’s popular are irrelevant to me–this is something I do for fun–if I want viewership I write about anything else (eg here, here, here, etc–all far more popular avenues than writing about the Senators).

It’s not surprising that Pierre Dorion was nominated for GM of the Year given where the team is in the playoffs.  As Nichols points out the nomination isn’t remotely meaningful in terms of actually assessing him (it’s about as relevant as Paul MacLean winning coach of the year in 2013).  I am bemused by the fans upset with Nichols about his very mild critique.

Another EU FA was taken off my list as Nashville signed 6’5 Swedish forward Victor Ejdsell, who had a monster season in the Allsvenskan for BIK Karlskoga.  Not from my list, the Leafs signed a couple of Swedish defensemen (23-year old Calle Rosen and 21-year old Andreas Borgman)–the latter was fairly highly ranked by CS in 2013 (#36).

I’m not a fan of hearing the anthem at sporting events, aside from international ones like the Olympics.  Putting aside the history of why it happens (we can thank America), it always struck me as bizarre–my team isn’t representing Canada (other than in the convoluted sense that it’s the only Canadian based team left in the playoffs), the team certainly isn’t comprised only of Canadians, and both anthems don’t cover all who are involved.  There’s nothing inherently patriotic about watching an NHL hockey game–it neither values or devalues what our nation (or any other nation) is about.  The league does not represent a state–it’s simply a corporation doing what businesses do.  Despite all of this the topic of removing it rarely comes up and is never popular.  Julian Garcia was one of a couple of people who raised it last year (granting his article isn’t a particularly engaging piece), but it’s generally a dead letter.  Having the anthem played is such a part of the sporting tradition fans don’t want it to change, so I’m not expecting it to go away any time soon.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 20, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Binghamton Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The Sens earned their 2-1 overtime win last night, riding the coattails of Erik Karlsson and a strong performance from Craig Anderson.  What I don’t see is the team surviving four powerplays in the first again; speaking of the man advantage, I’m not a fan of Alex Burrows on the powerplay.  Other positives: Chris Neil in the pressbox (where he belongs); the end of the Ben Harpur experiment (I take him over Mark Borowiecki, but that’s not saying much).  There wasn’t a lot of the silly chippiness the Penguins are known for (a couple of dangerous hits, but very little of the after whistle nonsense).  Fans should soak in the win–I’m not sure how long this ride will last, so best enjoy it while it does.

It has been a long time since I talked about hockey broadcasts (five years in fact)–the painful noise that generally pollutes viewing an NHL hockey game. It’s sad to note that the lineup hasn’t really changed since then, other than Glenn Healy is off my TV.  Briefly, here’s what we have (split by play-by-play and colour, best-to-worst):
PBP
Gord Miller – good; can add insight and excitement to the broadcast
Chris Cuthbert – good; a touch less insightful than Miller, but it’s close
Mike Emrick – generic; defines average
Paul Romanuk – generic, but a little less of a dinosaur than Hughson
Jim Hughson – boring; hasn’t evolved at all since he broke in with TSN (yes, I’m old enough to remember)
Bob Cole – I can’t believe he still broadcasts; I’ve never heard a man sound more bored than during the Pittsburgh-Washington series; plays favourites, doesn’t understand the game, etc, etc
Colour
Ray Ferraro – the best colour guy (NBC saddling him with Olczyk is painful)
Garry Galley – good; has actual insight
Greg Millen – generic, but solid–neither adds nor subtracts from my enjoyment
Ed Olczyk – not good; hasn’t evolved
Pierre McGuire – awful; you’d think he’d be at the bottom of the list given the hyperbole and self-aggrandizement, but he’s still actually better than the two that follow
Craig Simpson – terrible; out of touch and plays favourites
Louie DeBrusk – terrible; out of date and out of touch

The sad thing is, the people making decisions don’t actually know who is or isn’t good.  Grey Wyshysnki says that NBC likes Mike Milbury, which is a sign of lunacy.  The folks at Sportsnet also keep trotting out neanderthals like Don Cherry.  Is it ignorance?  Or do they think these are the kind of personalities hockey fans want?  Elliotte Friedman (among others) have defended some of the inanity (I’m not sure he really has a choice)–Dave Shoalts is drinking the Koolaid (for Shoalts never forget and of course his opinion on analytics).  Generally speaking the primary broadcasts are not something I look forward too–Hughson and Simpson?  Awful.  Emrick and Olczyk?  Bland at best.  Is there relief in sight?  Absolutely not.  Low ratings have led to retrenchment.

Ross A brought up something I mentioned back in January:

I also saw it [complacency] in the blogging world. The usually vibrant world of Sens news was quiet this year.

He goes on to note the state of various blogs and how the playoffs have breathed a tiny bit of life into WTYKY (which is really just Luke P writing more).  Another thing I’ve noticed is a decrease in The Silver Seven citing other bloggers, although that seems to boil down to who is writing the piece.

Back when Kurt Kleinendorst was brought back to coach the AHL team I didn’t mention that he signed a two-year deal; I wasn’t sure if Binghamton’s season would put that in jeopardy or not (I thought he did well with what he had, but I don’t make decisions for the org), but a Tweet from the Belleville Sens seems to indicate he’ll be around to finish out that contract (something that makes sense for the cash-strapped Sens anyway).

I was not surprised Barry Trotz was unable to get the Washington Capitals into the third round, as he’s been unable to get any roster beyond that point [not pictured above: Trotz, but Torts is a wonderful poster boy for incomprehension].  It is amazing to so how far a good roster can carry a clueless coach (Randy Carlyle), but that roster needs to be truly superlative to overcome the inadequacies in charge of them.  I looked at the impact of coaching a year or so ago (something still poorly understood; my link in that piece to Nick Emptage’s article is broken, so one that works is above).

I haven’t talked about the NWHL in awhile (which differs from the CWHL in that its players are paid).  The league has struggled with it’s second season, forcing its players to accept as massive 50% pay cut in order to remain solvent (bringing the $10,000 minimum salary down to a miserly $5,000).   The change does not bode well for the future and I have to wonder if any paid women’s league can survive without the active support of the NHL (ala the WNBA, which took 13 years to turn a profit).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 14, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Binghamton Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments