Sens Sign Tarasenko, the Smejkal Theory, Plus Where Ex-Sens have Landed

It’s long been in the rumour mill and it’s finally happened: the Sens signed FA Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year deal (5 million) in an effort to try and recoup some of the offense lost in the Debrincat deal. We’ll get to the cap crunch he’s created and other matters in a moment, but first let’s look at his last few seasons:

Vladimir Tarasenko, RW, DOB 91, 6’0, 1-16/10 Stl (a pick acquired from Ottawa to land David Rundblad*)
2020-21 Stl 24-4-10-14 0.58
2021-22 Stl 75-34-48-82 1.09
2022-23 Stl/NYR 69-18-32-50 0.72 (0.76/0.67)
*Amusingly, Rundblad (2015) and Tarasenko (2019) have won the same number of Cups

Tarasenko is 31 and will turn 32 in December. It’s fair to assume he’s in decline and he did nothing to help the Rangers get over the hump in the playoffs (neither did Patrick Kane, for that matter). That said, if healthy he should provide offense and gives the team (again, if healthy) a proper top six. The addition helps the top nine (for whenever the Sens get around to re-signing Shane Pinto). Does he help their chances to make the playoffs? Yes (again, if healthy). We can’t talk about Tarasenko without bringing up the other aged Russians free agents the Sens have signed before: a declining Alexei Kovalev in 2009 and a declining Sergei Gonchar in 2010. Kovalev was a disaster and was dumped on the Penguins after less than two seasons (for a pick that turned into Ryan Dzingel), whereas Gonchar remained a useful player for three full seasons. The plus side, I believe, is that it’s a one-year deal (something forced upon Dorion by the cap, incidentally). Tarasenko will remain hungry for his next contract and it makes him easier to move if things go wrong–given that he can’t be kept, if they aren’t in the hunt I suspect he’ll be dealt early. This is a pay cut from his prior contract (when he was making 7.5 million).

It’s interesting that he plays the right side, which given the depth chart (you can see a very similar one from Ian Mendes‘, which was posted shortly after mine) is not the obvious side, but when you realize he’s simply the Debrincat replacement it makes sense. What it will do (presumably) is shift Ridley Greig back down to Belleville (he’s not taking MacEwen‘s slot and there’s a notable gap in the BSens lineup on the right), which I’m fine with, but there will also be some roster shuffling to fit him in. The most obvious guy to get moved down is Kubalik (the third line suits him best anyway).

Finally, let’s consider the cap situation. CapFriendly has Ottawa with less than a million before they reach the ceiling–that’s not enough to re-sign Pinto. What will they do? I think a trade is likely (Brannstrom‘s deal seemed to be made to move him; getting rid of Forsberg wouldn’t surprise me either, although I’m not sure that’s possible post-surgery). If a trade fails (or perhaps in combination with), burying Parker Kelly in the minors (a 762k cap hit) would help. Kelly completely bottomed out this past season and is easily replaceable. What I’m really curious is how long Pinto‘s deal is for–is it a short bridge deal, or does Dorion do what he did last year and lock him up long term?

When making the Sens depth chart (link above) and thinking about the addition of Smejkal something occurred to me: as an older player with prospects ahead of him in his position (Jarventie and Crookshank), what was the logic of bringing him in? It’s possible this is a Pontus Aberg situation. Two years ago the Sens signed Aberg out of the KHL when he was 28. The Swede had prior NHL experience, but could never make it full-time. He didn’t make Ottawa’s roster out of camp, played 17 games in Belleville, and was then released in early December and went back to Sweden. The entire situation seemed like an extended tryout and when it failed the player and team parted ways. Smejkal is slightly younger (soon to be 27) and lacks NHL/AHL experience (although he did play in the WHL), but I can’t help but wonder if he’s essentially trying out to be the fourth-line winger and if that doesn’t pay off will disappear back to Europe.

Moving On

Let’s look at where the unsigned Sens and BSens of the 22-23 season have wound up:
Sens
Patrick Brown (18 GP with the Sens) – Boston (2yrs); cost the Sens a 2023 6th rounder (Ryan MacPherson)
Julien Gauthier (17 GP) – NYI (2yrs); 1-for-1 trade to get rid of Tyler Motte
Cam Talbot (36 GP) – LA (1yr); gave up Filip Gustavsson to acquire him
Dylan Gambrell (123 GP) – Toronto (1yr); cost the Sens a 2022 7th rounder (Adam Zlinka) that was further flipped to Arizona
Austin Watson (176 GP) – TB (PTO); cost the Sens a 2021 4th rounder (Jack Matier)
Derick Brassard (62 GP) – unsigned; signed as an FA
Nick Holden (141 GP) – retired; acquired with a pick for Dadanov (the pick was subsequently flipped for Hamonic)
BSens
Scott Sabourin – San Jose (2yrs/2-way)
Jake Lucchini – Minnesota (1yr/2-way)
Cole Cassels – San Jose (AHL-deal)
Dylan Ferguson – Minsk (KHL)
Viktor Lodin – IK Oskarshamn (SHL)
John Quenneville – IK Oskarshamn (SHL)
Antoine Bibeau – AIK (Allsvenskan)
Matthew Boucher – Trois-Rivieres (ECHL)
Matthew Wedman – Fort Wayne (ECHL)
Jonathan Aspirot – Calgary (PTO)

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 28, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Free Agency, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Sens Depth Chart

As the doldrums of the NHL summer drag on the Sens have yet to resolve their remaining RFA situations (Pinto and Sokolov) or address the Formenton-situation (either because they can’t or won’t). I’ve been waiting for something to change, but at this point I decided to look at the team as-is (assuming contracts for the former two with Formenton not returning). What prompted me to do this is the varied lineups I’ve seen from journalists and fans. Key: those in bold are on one-way contracts; those in italics are on two-ways; those with a (v) take up a veteran slot in the AHL; those in green are either new to the roster or barely played last season. I realize some of the players can play other positions, but I’m going with how they’ve generally been used (keep in mind this is a depth chart arrangement).

NHL Depth Chart – Forwards
Tkachuk-Stutzle-Giroux
Kubalik–Norris-Batherson
Joseph-Pinto (RFA)-Greig
Kelly-Kastelic-MacEwen

I don’t think there’s much room to argue this configuration, barring other roster changes. The Sens are weak on the right side, which is good for Greig, and while Kelly is likely on his way off the NHL roster and Joseph is misplaced, contracts get priority. That said, the Sens are very deep on the left side, even if that depth isn’t established enough to push out roster players. Let’s look at how I think the org see’s that depth by position:
Center: Chartier, Ostapchuk, Pilon (v), Daoust
I don’t think either Chartier or Pilon are good fill-in NHL players, but both have some experience; Ostapchuk is a rookie, but the Sens won’t hesitate to put him in the lineup because of his style of play; Daoust is coming off a major injury so we have no idea what he is as a prospect; the org would not lean on any of these players for a significant period. They also have an AHL-contract at this position (Saulnier), who was a good soldier for the org last year. At the AHL level it’s not clear any of these players are elite talents (with Chartier unable to remain healthy), so that’s going to hurt the BSens offensively.
Rightwing: Sokolov (RFA), Currie (v), Boucher
I expect the Sens will add someone on the right side in Belleville, but as it stands Sokolov is easily the first call-up, with the veteran Currie as 1A (assuming his decline in the KHL isn’t an overall decline); first-rounder Boucher needs to prove he can perform and stay healthy; theoretically there should be decent production from at least the top two (Sokolov was 26th in the league last season)
Leftwing: Highmore (v), Crookshank, Jarventie, Smejkal, Reinhardt, Imama
The Sens are loaded on this side, but presumably signed Highmore because of his NHL experience to take the pressure off prospects (he was 19th in AHL scoring last season); my guess is Crookshank is next in line because of his style of play, with the talented Jarventie better suited to strictly offensive opportunities; I assume the Sens signed Smejkal for a reason, which puts him ahead of Reinhardt, and Imama wasn’t added for NHL duty; they inexplicably have an AHL-deal on this side as well, with McPhee. Because of the players ahead of Smejkal, I wouldn’t expect big numbers from him (unless he can play center, or someone else in this group can). The intent with the Czech, unlike Matinpalo below, seems to NHL depth rather than as a pure prospect.

It’s worth pointing out that, with the possible exception of Jarventie, none of these players are expected to push things offensively (there’s a possibility with Crookshank, but that’s still up in the air), so where the Sens truly trail behind other teams is in proven scoring depth. Ideally Kubalik is on the third line with Pinto and someone else who can score (with a scoring winger added on the left side of the second line), but right now the Sens have to lean entirely on their top-six (with injuries it’s almost certain Pinto will spend parts of the season among them). It’s worth pointing out only two drafted players are being inserted into the system (Ostapchuk and Boucher).

NHL Depth Chart – Defense
Chabot-Chychrun
Sanderson-Zub
Brannstrom-Hamonic
Bernard-Docker (R)

As with the forwards above, I don’t think any of this can be argued. Unlike the forward group, the Sens are stack on the right side (which is unusual), and the depth chart is much clearer than the forward group.
Left side: Kleven, Larsson (v), Heatherington (v), Sebrango
The org loves Kleven, but there’s no room for him in the NHL. Behind him are the lumbering spare parts known as Larsson/Heatherington. The former has a ton of NHL experience, but that got him run into the minors; both are stopgaps capable of minimal minutes. Behind them is failed first-rounder Sebrango who I wouldn’t expect to be called-up at all. Other than Kleven, none of these players can effectively move the puck at this level, so don’t expect much offensively.
Right side: Thomson, Guenette, Matinpalo
While Matinpalo is a wildcard, the other two are comfortable callups and I think Thomson is better than JBD already. The Sens have another blueliner on this side on an AHL deal (MacKinnon) so I don’t know if any further additions will be made. Fans should appreciate that, barring injury, Matinpalo is not going to get many offensive opportunities, so don’t expect big numbers.

On paper the Sens have a good blueline, but both Chabot and Chychrun struggle to stay healthy and other than Thomson there’s not much in the system to move the puck (Kleven has yet to prove he can do it at that level and we know JBD can’t). The good thing is, there’s still potential in that depth so it’s not as cut and dried as the forward group.

NHL Depth Chart – Goaltenders
Korpisalo
Forsberg

This is so simple I’m not going to spend too much time on it: Sogaard, Merilainen, Mandolese
Mandolese has more experience than Merilainen, but he’s been erratic his whole pro career so I think he’s the third goaltender until something changes. The Sens have picked up an AHL-goaltender already (Sinclair), so I don’t expect any more to be signed.

The entire goaltending group is a giant question mark. None of these players have demonstrated consistent good play over an extended period. It’s difficult to assess prospects at this position until they are 26-27, and the prospects (in the order above) are 23 (in December), 21 (in August), and 23 (in August). Any or all could blow up like Marcus Hogberg or simply never escape the AHL. On the plus side all three have shown their ability to elevate their play, so the question is consistency and the ability to stay healthy. At the NHL-level it’s even more dire, as Forsberg has never truly been a starter (and we have no idea how he’ll perform after surgery), while Korpisalo has been erratic throughout his career. If there’s a fail point to the roster, it’s right here.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 22, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Sens Fire Trent Mann

As the pain of the Alex DeBrincat trade subsides (The Athletic also roasted Dorion), we got an org move that I’ve been expecting since February (when Troy Mann was fired), as his brother Trent was fired. Trent Mann has been with the organization since 2011 and run the drafts since 2017 (which is to say, he’s run all of Dorion’s drafts). The theory about why Troy was fired has long been that Dorion didn’t want an independent voice talking to new ownership about his many boondoggles–Trent is cut from the same cloth as Troy and as new ownership is about to take over, it’s time to go. If Andlauer has any hockey sense at all, Dorion will be gone ASAP regardless (something I believe can’t happen earlier than September, at which point he might be allowed to remain throughout the season until he can be properly be replaced next year). We already have two new long term contracts the org will have to deal with in future (Korpisalo and MacEwen), and the cap space cleared by moving DeBrincat gives Dorion the opportunity to add more. If I’m Andlauer, I don’t want him to do anymore damage than he already has. One positive is that almost all his prior mistakes (in terms of dead cap and retained salary) end after this season (only Colin White lasts forever). The Sens have three serious financial headaches going forward at the moment (Korpisalo, Forsberg, and Mathieu Joseph, tallying 9.7 million combined), but Dorion could make that worse.

Back to Trent, I’ve long taken issue with his public comments that he no longer wants to take chances on skilled players. It’s fair to say that this is as much Dorion’s edict as Mann’s. We know that Dorion, as a former scout, can push for picks that he wants, so when we look at Trent’s drafts we can’t know where his GM has overruled him (it’s more likely in early rounds, but we can’t limit it to that). We also know that either Dorion, Mann, or both have a passion for players whose fathers were in the NHL (my guess is this is a Dorion thing, who likes the ego stroke of their fathers being connected to the team). The idea of bloodlines being meaningful has no real basis, but the team clearly thinks it does (cf). That said, let’s look at Trent’s drafts (my scale of success is a player who has or will play 200+ NHL games):

2017 (2-2-0)
1-28 Shane Bowers (USHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 174-31-35-66) – hard worker, but scouts saw all sorts of red flags and they were right; dumped as part of the Duchene trade; Colorado then dumped him on Boston who in turn sent him to New Jersey
2-47 Alex Formenton (OHL; NHL 109-23-16-39; AHL 76-31-26-57) – outside his (still unresolved) personal issues, he’s an excellent pick (via the link you can see Pronman faceplant in his analysis, but people like Hockey Prospect were on the money), although he remains a dead asset until the aforementioned are decided (the NHL has taken its time for fear of being sued is my guess–his Wiki is completely scrubbed which is interesting)
4-121 Drake Batherson (QMJHL; NHL 227-62-97-159; AHL 103-38-78-116) – a fantastic pick based on skill (I was very happy with it at the time); he was also under the Formenton cloud, but that seems to have been baseless
6-183 Jordan Hollett (WHL; retired) – he’s big, which has been the guiding factor in Ottawa’s goaltending selections, but there was no development curve
2018 (1-5-2)
1-4 Brady Tkachuk (NCAA; NHL 359-125-150-275) – there were a few concerns at the time about his ability to produce in the NHL, but he’s blown those away
1-26 Jacob Bernard-Docker (AJHL; NHL 32-0-2-2; AHL 99-4-11-15) – you can read scouts badly whiffing on his offensive abilities, and my concerns were not elevated enough as in my opinion he’s not an NHL player (his AHL numbers are horrendous)–it’s not clear JBD knows what the puck is for
2-48 Jonny Tychonick (BCHL; AHL-contract) – while I was enthused for the team to take a chance on skill, it never quite translated in the NCAA; Toronto signed him to a two-year AHL-deal when he completed his college career
4-95 Johnny Gruden (USHL; NHL 3-0-0-0; AHL 161-32-40-72) – I thought it was a terrible pick at the time, as nothing about his game stood out; the Sens dumped him as part of the Matt Murray trade and he remains in Pittsburgh’s org
4-126 Angus Crookshank (BCHL; AHL 90-31-32-63) – loved the pick when it was made and while his career trajectory remains uncertain, he’s got NHL depth potential I like (which is to say, he can score and grind)
6-157 Kevin Mandolese (QMJHL; NHL 3GP .916; AHL 43GP .893) – see below, but another big ‘tender whose career has been very erratic
7-188 Jakov Novak (NAHL; AHL-contract) – a gamble on skill that did not pay off; the NCAA grad has signed a one-year AHL deal with Laval (Montreal)
7-194 Luke Loheit (USHS; unsigned) – a pick I hated at the time and he’s yet to land even an AHL-deal
2019 (1-1-4)
1-19 Lassi Thomson (WHL; NHL 18-0-5-5; AHL 135-18-54-72) – I liked the pick and I continue to like the player (he’s much more talented than JBD above), although his ceiling remains uncertain
2-32 Shane Pinto (USHL; NHL 99-21-22-43) – scouts were spot on and he’s been a fantastic pick thus far
2-37 Mads Sogaard (WHL; NHL 21GP .889; AHL 64GP .904) – have I mentioned big? Mads is huge. Like Mandolese above, he’s been very erratic in his career thus far, but that’s not unusual with goaltenders
4-94 Viktor Lodin (SHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 38-11-12-23) – I mistakenly thought he was a grinder when picked due to a lack of info, but he earned an ELC which was ruined by injury and it seems likely he’ll return to Sweden
5-125 Mark Kastelic (WHL; NHL 81-9-6-15; AHL 102-19-24-43) – has banged and crashed around as expected, but as a marginal player he could disappear very quickly (I wasn’t a fan of the pick and really, why keep him when you signed MacEwen?)
7-187 Maxence Guenette (QMJHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 120-11-48-59) – reminded me of Max Lajoie (who signed a two-way deal with Toronto for next season); I like the player, although it’s unlikely he’ll be a regular NHLer
2020 (2-1-7)
1-3 Tim Stuetzle (DEL; NHL 210-73-104-177) – no complaints here
1-5 Jake Sanderson (USHL; NHL 77-4-28-32) – I had some concerns offensively, but those were unfounded
1-28 Ridly Greig (WHL; NHL 20-2-7-9; AHL 46-16-16-32) – his style of play combined with his size cause concerns about durability; I’m not quite sure where is he is offensively (we don’t yet see the dominant AHL numbers of a Batherson)–top-nine?
2-33 Roby Jarventie (Mestis; AHL 114-29-37-66) – the Sens have had limited luck from Finland, but I liked the pick (skill) and his trajectory has been good thus far (his totals don’t look remarkable, but if you go year-by-year you see the jumps in performance (0.47->0.75) and keep in mind he’s been the youngest player for the BSens every season)
2-44 Tyler Kleven (USHL; NHL 8-0-2-2) – the collective komming in the fanbase over him is hilarious (Yorkie has to change his shorts just talking about him), but it’s not at all clear how he projects (can he distribute the puck, or is he a limited, physical 5-6 guy?)
2-61 Egor Sokolov (QMJHL; NHL 13-1-1-2; AHL 169-55-79-134) – everyone likes the good natured Russian, with concerns largely being about his skating (which has gone from glacial to slow) and how well his skills translate (none of that is resolved); the perfect scenario for him is as a top-nine player (his AHL numbers suggest he can’t be top-six), but it’s unclear if he can do that
3-71 Leevi Merilainen (Jr SM-Liiga; NHL 2GP .878; AHL 4GP .933) – short by Sens standards; he underwhelmed in the OHL, but returned to form in Finland and had an excellent start in Belleville (barring roster changes I expect him to backup Sogaard)
5-155 Eric Engstrand (SHL; unsigned) – the Sens have a hard-on for big, lumbering European players who don’t pan out (Filip Ahl/Markus Nurmi), an observation I made when he was picked
6-158 Philippe Daoust (QMJHL; AHL 24-2-10-12) – due to injury we still have no idea what the Sens have in him, but he was drafted for skill, so I approve
6-181 Cole Reinhardt (WHL; NHL 1-0-0-0; AHL 169-32-44-76) – I wasn’t sure what the org was aiming at with him and I’m still not sure, although we have at least seen improvement (0.36->0.43->0.51)
2021 (link above; 0-3-3)
1-10 Tyler Boucher (USHL; signed) – the train wreck that is this pick continues with most questioning it at the time; I fully expect him to be packaged in a trade (sooner or later)
2-39 Zack Ostapchuk (WHL; signed) – a big project player that I liked at the time because he had some skill; what he is and how that will translate is unclear (he was a good but not great WHL player), but top-nine is what it feels like if he pans out
2-49 Ben Roger (OHL) – big and very fit, which doesn’t mean anything and he’s a wasted 2nd-round pick
3-74 Oliver Johansson (Allsvenskan) – a excellent skater with some skill; the Sens have plenty of time to make up their minds about him
4-123 Carson Latimer (WHL) – great skater, but nothing else making it a wasted pick
7-202 Chandler Romeo (GOJHL) – have I mentioned big? He was big, but not much of a hockey player
2022 (cf) (0-0-9)
2-64 Filip Nordberg (Allsvenskan) – reminds me a lot of Andreas Englund, which is not a great template to follow
3-72 Oskar Pettersson (J20; signed) – showed improvement after he was drafted and there could be potential in him (SHL numbers don’t blow you away, but at his age he isn’t playing much)
3-87 Tomas Hamara (U20; signed) – scouts didn’t think he excelled in any particular area, but the Sens rushed to sign him for some reason; he had a disappointing OHL-season and I’m not sure what exactly he’s supposed to do for you as a pro (I’m guessing he’s loaned back to Europe for the upcoming season)
4-104 Stephen Halliday (USHL) – I liked this pick and he had a good year in the NCAA (skilled player)
5-136 Jorian Donovan (OHL; signed) – had an excellent post-draft season so signing him made a lot of sense
5-143 Cameron ONeill (NEPACK 18U) – no idea what the org was smoking with this pick (another crasher and banger, but no signs of puck skill and the Sens have an awful track record drafting from tier-2 junior leagues in the US)
5-151 Kevin Reidler (J20) – another big goaltender who had a solid season in Sweden
6-168 Theo Wallberg (J20) – like Hamara he bombed out after his draft (in the USHL), so is going to have to show a lot this upcoming season (feels like another Englund-clone)
7-206 Tyson Dyck (BCHL) – a gamble on offense, so I like it
2023 (0-0-5)
4-108 Hoyt Stanley (BCHL) – drafted as a skilled defenseman, so on principal I like it, although the Sens have not done well with players out of the BCHL
5-140 Matthew Andonovski (OHL) – looks like a train wreck (same MO as Roger above)–no idea what the org was thinking
7-204 Owen Beckner (BCHL) – another skilled player, so on principal I like it
7-207 Vladimir Nikitin (Kazakhstan) – big goalie picked off his performance in one tournament–dicey decision, but it is the seventh round so the opportunity cost is small
7-215 Nicholas VanTassell (USHL) – another big blueliner with unimpressive numbers–I wouldn’t expect much

So what does it all mean? In terms of preferred leagues (likely related to what and where they spend their scouting money): USHL 8, WHL 8, Sweden 7, Canadian tier-2 (BCHL etc) 7, QMJHL 5, OHL 4, American tier-2 (USHS etc) 3, Finland 3, NCAA 1, Germany 1, Kazakhstan 1. Overall these trends are similar to those under Bryan Murray (cf), except for a growing focus on the Western hockey leagues. Has this emphasis on the US system worked? No. As far back as as Dorion’s involvement (link above), the Sens have failed the most from that system, which is a sign that despite rotation in the scouting group nothing has been learned in the last 15-years. Most of the Mann-drafts above are recent enough that we can’t definitively assess the wins and losses, but we can make some judgements (6-9-27):
2017 – a good draft, despite a wasted first round pick
2018 – a poor draft saved by the first-round pick
2019 – will end as a good draft if one of Thomson or Sogaard achieve potential
2020 – a fantastic draft from the looks of it (the best since 2008)
2021 – a terrible draft (lining up to be like 2014)
2022 – far too soon to say, but seems to lack high end talent
2023 – almost certainly to be disastrous (ala 2014)
Let’s keep in mind it’s easier to seem smart with high draft picks (especially top-ten) and the latter is what makes 2020 such a win for the team. Since that draft, despite having another top-ten pick, things have taken a turn for the worse. 2021 was a awful and the Sens had high picks; 2022 is filled with concerns and its highly likely 2023 will be a complete miss. Mann has been going in the wrong direction and so however convenient it is for Dorion to remove him, the team needs a change in its drafting direction.

Kevin Mandolese, GL, 6’5, DOB 00, 6-157/18
2021-22 AHL 17GP .901/ECHL 6GP .916
2022-23 NHL 3GP .916/AHL 17GP .890/ECHL 7GP .927
As expected since he was qualified, the Sens re-signed RFA goaltender Kevin Mandolese (only two other qualified RFAs remain). He is the fifth ‘tender in the organization (behind the two one-way deals mentioned above along with Mads Sogaard and rookie Leevi Merilainen), which isn’t an inherent flaw, but it’s interesting that they decided to keep him after a very erratic three seasons with the team. There’s no question Mandolese has talent, but his problem has been consistency–this is truly a make or break year for him. The other thing his presence affords is the ability to trade a goalender. I think it’s quite likely the Sens would like to move Forsberg (given his regression to the mean last year as well as coming off two major injuries), although it’s difficult to imagine anyone taking him without something better thrown in.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 13, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

The Alex DeBrincat Trade

When the Sens traded for DeBrincat last summer I immediately compared it to Dorion’s 2017 trade for Matt Duchene–a disastrous decision that contributed to needing a rebuild in 2018. The reaction from the fanbase in both instances was virtually identical, although I think the feelings about Duchene himself remained more positive when he was moved. Before we get into today’s trade with Detroit, let’s briefly remind ourselves how that prior move went for Dorion (for the deep dive read the article above):

2017
To Ottawa: Matt Duchene
To Nashville: Kyle Turris
To Colorado: Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, 1st-2019 (1-4 Bowen Byram), 2019-3rd (Matthew Stienburg)
2018
To Ottawa: Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 1st-2019 (1-19 Lassi Thomson)
To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman

In retrospect Ottawa gave up Byram (and Stienburg) for less than two seasons of Duchene and prospect Thomson. I like Lassi, but I’d rather have Byram in my lineup. Let’s compare this to DeBrincat himself:

2022
To Ottawa: DeBrincat
To Chicago: 1st-2022 (1-7 Kevin Korchinski), 2nd-2022 (Paul Ludwinski), 3rd-2024
2023
To Ottawa: Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, 1st-2024 (almost certain to be Boston’s), 4th-2024
To Detroit: DeBrincat

Because of the conditions attached to the 1st-round pick, it will likely be late (at best mid) and there’s no chance it’s in the top-10. Just like Duchene above, Dorion has converted a top-ten pick (the most successful part of the draft) into the crapshoot of later in the round for nothing (one meaningless season of DeBrincat). He lost a 2nd-round pick for nothing, and his 3rd has been turned into a 4th (almost certainly later than Ottawa’s own). There’s no question that in terms of future assets this is another enormous loss because everyone would rather have Bowen Byram and Kevin Korchinski on the Sens blueline rather than three meaningless seasons from Duchene and DeBrincat.

What about the tangible assets from the deal? What is being immediately injected into the Sens system?

Dominik Kubalik, LW, 6’2, DOB 95, 7-191/13 LA, 1yr/2.5
2021-22 Chi 78-15-17-32
2022-23 Det 81-20-25-45
He scored 30 goals in his rookie season with a talented Chicago team in 19-20, but his results the last two years are representative (receiving no boost from the NHL’s overall increase in scoring). If you were to slot his prior season in with Ottawa’s lineup he’s ahead of Shane Pinto and the idea has to be of him providing depth to the Sens otherwise anemic bottom-six (ahem, Mathieu Joseph). Kubalik was allowed to walk by the Blackhawks and Steve Yzerman has moved him after just one season–is that suggestive? Not necessarily, as Chicago was rebuilding and Detroit is retooling (and would rather have DeBrincat). He is, however, not locked in so the Sens can move him or walk away easily and it’s an excellent Cap hit for what he provides.

Donovan Sebrango, DL, 6’1, DOB 02, 3-63/20 Det, ELC/2yrs
2021-22 AHL 66-1-6-7
2022-23 AHL 39-4-3-7
This is an asset Yzerman wanted to be rid of (he spent about half of last season demoted to the ECHL–very much a Zach Senyshyn situation), so he’s part of the price the Sens have to pay to get rid of DeBrincat. He has two years left on his contract (including the upcoming one) and I suspect Dorion will look for a way to package him elsewhere before he finishes that out.

Let’s briefly assess and then summarize:
Positives: the DeBrincat situation has been resolved before the start of the season; Kubalik is a useful NHL player and arrives with a good contract; the Sens regained some of the draft equity they squandered; they have cap space to find a free agent and lock-up players like Pinto, Sanderson, etc
Negatives: Dorion (again!) overpaid for an asset he didn’t need so (again) failed to recoup the investment; just like with the Duchene trade above, there’s a good chance the entire fiasco ends with a modest asset like Lassi Thomson that is a pale shadow to what was given up in the first place; I don’t trust Dorion not to go overpay a free agent just to make a splash–I didn’t want five years for Korpisalo (or three years of Anton Forsberg for that matter) and I don’t want five years of an aging Tarasenko either (ask a stacked Rangers team how much he helped them). [The Detroit perspective doesn’t think much of the deal]

We can’t give the final assessment on the DeBrincat odyssey like we did with Duchene, but as it stands Dorion gave up: Kevin Korchinski (and Paul Ludwinski) for one season of DeBrincat in return for (possibly) one season of Kubalik and a late 1st-rounder. If that’s your return on investment, it’s time to get a new investor. Dorion rightfully received praise for some of the contracts he signed last summer (although lot’s not forget the hell he’s created for himself in that realm before, ala Colin White), but his ability to assess his team–where they are at, what they need–is hilariously and disastrously awful. Do we want to re-visit the Matt Murray trade? GMs are sometimes the victims of bad luck, but that’s not the case here. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Dorion needs to go before he permanently damages the rebuild.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 10, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Ottawa Free Agency

After dealing with some unqualified RFAs (which includes bringing back Rourke Chartier, cf), the Sens have been busy signing players. Let’s take a look, with grades included:

Joonas Korpisalo, GL, DOB 94, 6’3, 3-62/12 Clb 5yrs/4.0
2021-22 Clb .877
2022-23 Clb/LA .913/.921
I have no idea why the Sens gave him five years (a sentiment largely echoed by the fanbase and reporters—Jason York is the only exception I’ve seen, with his argument being that you just don’t know with goaltenders so it could work out, he’s been a tandem with Forsberg before, and the cost is fine–it’s not much of an argument). Dorion was very excited by his age (clearly believing this is peak time for goaltenders), but this is massive term for a guy who has never played more than 39 games in an NHL season and struggled the previous two seasons (Mendes compares him to other ‘tenders with deals this long and none found success throughout and few found any success at all). It also indicates that the Forsberg-era (as the default starter) is over. The only plus, from my perspective, is that Sogaard is going to get more time in the minors, which he desperately needs (assuming the team is not going to move he or Forsberg–they currently have three AHL goalies signed or qualified). If this fails the Sens will have to buy him out, which is the Matt Murray scenario all over again at a reduced price. Ottawa has historically struggled to successfully sign or trade for goaltenders, with Craig Anderson being the lone exception with Dorion around (2011 is a long time ago). If there are positives, it’s that it echoes the recent lessons of the playoffs where winning isn’t about elite goaltenders, but an affordable tandem–a good but not great Chris Osgood. The other plus is the team didn’t spend assets in acquiring him (no picks, no players), so it’s just cap space. For a deep dive on the ‘tender, Yost digs into recent numbers and his conclusion echoes the general sentiment–the risk far outweighs the reward and the problem is the term. Keep in mind, neither Dorion (or York) are numbers guys–they don’t reject all numbers (height, weight, hits, etc), but advanced stats are for nerds, so no thanks. This means Dorion gambles blind, which is why so many of his moves don’t pan out (he’s coming off trading Filip Gustavsson for one year of a declining Cam Talbot–a decline all the stat people predicted).
Grade D: There’s no chance the deal works out for all five-years and a decent chance it doesn’t work at all; it’s a panicked move by Dorion who realized Sogaard wasn’t ready and was swayed by the most recent performance for the ‘tenders available

Travis Hamonic, RD, DOB 90, 6’2, 2-53/08 NYI 2yrs/1.1
2021-22 Van/Ott 43-4-6-10
2022-23 Ott 75-6-15-21
He waited until free agency to re-sign. The org and he disagreed over term initially and two years seems to be the compromise. While I don’t know that I would have brought him back, the cost is low and moving him (or burying him) is feasible. It helps that he wants to remain in Ottawa and clearly will be a good soldier for the org. I suspect one of the reasons for his retention is related to a plan to move Brannstrom at some point.
Grade C: It’s an adequate if underwhelming decision (he won’t win you games, but he likely won’t lose you games either).

Zack MacEwen, CR, DOB 96, 6’3, undrafted QMJHL 3yrs/0.775
2021-22 75-3-6-9 Fights: 12
2022-23 56-4-6-10 Fights: 7
A three-year deal for a fighter is absurd. It’s classic Dorion (eg) and the cap hit is minimal, but why? Ottawa has no use for an enforcer (we can argue no one does). The argument is that Tkachuk will have to fight less (this is exactly what Marc Methot said, although we know Marc’s opinion could change in a few months), but Brady can already choose to not fight. No one is obliged to fight MacEwen (as his declining totals illustrate and why the enforcer role has disappeared) and that’s all he can do usefully at this level. Admittedly, new ownership can safely bury him in the minors, but why put yourself in that situation?
Grade F: A completely pointless move based on what the league was like 30-years ago and he’ll be moved or bought out before he completes the term.

Along with the NHL signings the org has picked up some pieces for the BSens and the usual bizarre off-season decisions for Belleville continue (Incidentally, I must have missed something about two-way deals, as it seems every player is getting the same amount, 775k):

Josh Currie, RW, DOB 92, 5’10, undrafted QMJHL 1yr/0.775
2021-22 KHL 48-10-16-26
2022-23 KHL 48-3-9-12
Career AHL numbers: 321-113-98-211 0.66
Played his way out of the KHL and the Sens have a mixed record with players coming back from Europe. He wasn’t a dominant AHL player before, being a top-six who shoots first. There’s also a concern his career is in decline (and why Currie instead of the ascending Lucchini?).
Grade B-: His AHL-numbers are solid, but not spectacular and there’s a chance his career is heading in the wrong direction and he’s eating up a veteran slot (so good luck moving him)

Matthew Highmore, LW, DOB 96, 5’11, undrafted QMJHL 1yr/0.775
2021-22 NHL 46-5-7-12
2022-23 AHL 68-19-42-61
Career AHL numbers: 165-50-75-125 0.76
Someone with unimpressive NHL numbers (139-12-15-27) who seems like they can add offense at the AHL-level (although it’s worth pointing out this past season was his best in the AHL).
Grade B: This is the signing I like most because he’s the most likely to be able to produce second (or even first) line support numbers for the BSens.

Bokondji Imama, LW, DOB 96, 6’1, 6-180/15 TB 1yr/0.775
2021-22 AHL 54-5-7-12 Fights: 12
2022-23 AHL 50-5-10-15 Fights: 7
Career AHL numbers: 257-26-36-62 0.24
The Montreal native only does one notable thing as a pro: fight. Even though fighting is down across the league, the Sens always have at least one enforcer on the BSens roster. This suggests that Scott Sabourin is not returning. The signing echoes MacEwen‘s above, although hopefully Imama can actually play and not just fight.
Grade D: This could be an F, but I don’t know if he can play the game or not.

Garrett Pilon, CR, DOB 98, 5’10, 3-87/16 Wsh 1yr/0.775
2021-22 AHL 60-17-25-42
2022-23 AHL 53-11-18-29
Career AHL numbers: 259-60-96-156 0.60
Yet another ‘son-of’ situation (Rich is his father), the Sens are taking a risk that his down year was just a fluke and that he can provide scoring for the BSens.
Grade D: This is a veteran contract spent on a player coming off a terrible year–why take the risk?

And here’s a few AHL-contracts:

Brennan Saulnier, CL, DOB 93, 6’0, undrafted NCAA
2021-22 AHL 43-3-3-6 Fights: 6
2022-23 AHL 30-6-9-15 Fights: 5
Don’t be fooled by his spike in production, at this level Saulner is a physical, agitating player who fights. Despite his age the past two seasons are his first as a (semi) regular in the AHL.
Grade B: There’s a chance Saulnier regresses, but being on an AHL-deal means that’s fine, he can still function as depth (as in, he doesn’t need to produce at the same level).

Ryan MacKinnon, DR, DOB 94, 6’0, undrafted QMJHL
2021-22 AHL 25-2-1-3
2022-23 AHL 20-0-3-3
I have no idea what the org was thinking here, as he’s shown no ability to be a regular AHL-player (for those wondering he was a skilled junior player, so he’s not added for sandpaper).
Grade F: No idea what anyone was thinking here.

Graham McPhee, LW, DOB 98, 6’0, 5-149/16 Edm
2021-22 33-5-6-11
2022-23 41-1-5-6
AHL career numbers: 77-6-11-17
The ‘son-of’ continues (this time of exec George). I have no clue why the Sens brought him back, as his AHL career has largely been hopeless (he even bombed out in the Tier-2 league in Austria) and he’s not a grinder.
Grade F: No idea what anyone was thinking here (this is especially bad because I’ve seen him play so I know what the org saw too).

Mark Sinclair, GR, DOB 96, 6’0, undrafted NCAA
2021-22 NCAA .905
2022-23 ECHL .915
Spent his college career getting pummeled on a terrible Alabama team, but did well with Cincinnati this past season (he played one game for the BSens, where he was excellent). It’s a solid signing, as he’s currently the fourth goaltender in the system.
Grade A: The high grade is because, given the information available and what you are asking him to do, this is spot on.

We have some follow-up to the NHL’s decision to not enforce Pride and other ‘statement’ jerseys on its players, and it’s a clever solution I did not discuss at the time: have the players/NHLPA front the issue. In this way the league gets to have their cake and eat it too. No one is going to protest players doing what they want, so the league can officially not promote issues while still having them promoted. Certainly the outrage about the decision was barely a blip, which was helped by the timing of it (right before the draft and free agency).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 8, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Free Agency, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

Ottawa’s Draft, Development Camp, Signings, and the Curse of Curtis Lazar

Historically Dorion has not done well with late picks, but has better than average results in the 4th. As one would expect, across the league the 7th-round is a crapshoot (about 1 NHL player per draft) and the fifth is not much better (with 2). All this is to say it would not surprise me if this draft echoes Ottawa’s disastrous 2014 effort where none of the prospects panned out. Here are the picks:

Hoyt Stanley (4-108), DR, DOB 05, 6’3
BCHL 53-4-34-38 1st
Slated to attend Cornell, there’s no rush for Stanley (or any of the other prospects). The Sens have a miserable track record from the BCHL (Tychonick and Loheit from ’18 come to mind, although after that only ’22’s Dyck has been picked from there), but even a stopped clock is right twice a day, so fans can hope (the ‘success’ is Derek Grant in ’08). The Sens say he’s a good, skilled defenseman.

Matthew Andonovski (5-140), DL, DOB 05, 6’2
OHL 67-0-16-16 6th
He’s big, can skate, but with limited offensive tools. Does that sound familiar? It should, as that’s the exact same MO as past OHL-pick Ben Roger (2021 draft); those offensive skills never did develop for Roger and that’s what I’d expect here. The desire for a bruising blueliner goes back to the beginning for Dorion and the only thing that’s changed is skating has been added to the mix–the thing is, if you can’t make a pass, that’s not enough for the current NHL. The org’s take on him (link above) is that they like his hockey smarts.

Owen Beckner (7-204), CL, DOB 05, 6’2
BCHL 53-17-33-50 t-1st
Committed to Colorado College, he’s another player who can marinate in the NCAA for awhile. I referenced Ottawa’s bad luck with the BCHL, so keep that in mind (Grant remains the exception). The Sens rambling (link above) explanation is that they like his penalty killing and he’s competitive.

Vladimir Nikitin (7-207), GL, DOB 05, 6’4 (pick via the Gudbranson trade)
Kazahkstan .921
The Sens are always intrigued by tournament success, which is what made the ‘tender stand out (no scout made the trek to watch the Kazahkstan league); that performance plus being signed by BCHL’s Chilliwack has landed us the prospect. There’s no rush for him, as he’ll presumably move on to the NCAA if he does well. The seventh-round is the place to take chances, so I’m perfectly fine with the shot in the dark. The Sens said they like the package and the path he’s on (link above).

Nicholas VanTassell (7-215), RW, DOB 04, 6’4 (pick via the Motte trade)
USHL 62-19-18-37 6th
Overager is committed to U-Mass; his unimpressive USHL numbers are worrying, so while he’ll have plenty of time to develop I’d set my expectations low as it’s not clear to me what exactly the org is hoping for with him. The Sens said he’s big (link above). Size. Big. Did I mention he’s big? Bigly. Big.

In terms of what happened to their traded picks in the draft:
1-12 (Ari) Danill But (Chychrun trade)
2-44 (Chi) Roman Kantserov (Zaitsev trade)
3-76 (Stl) Juraj Pekarcik (via Tor via the Murray trade)
6-172 (Phi) Ryan MacPherson (via P. Brown trade)

Signings

Re-signing Jacob Larsson (who they did not qualify as an RFA) is a classic Dorion move. What’s the left side in Belleville like? We have big, lumbering Dillon Heatherington signed, so why not retain another big, lumbering player to join him? How did that work last season? It didn’t, so let’s try it again. I think the rationale is less about the BSens than having spare parts for the NHL, but still, not an inspiring choice.

Re-signing JBD was inevitable–I think he’s massively overrated (he’s an adequate if underwhelming AHL defenseman), but his contract is cheap enough (2yrs/805k) that he’s moveable. What I expect we’ll see in the upcoming season is, as his limitations are exposed, the fanbase will turn on him (mid to late season), but right now we’ll just see positives about it.

Brannstrom‘s one year deal (2m) seems like the prelude to a trade–no long term commitment and affordable. I think Dorion lost interest in him a long time ago, but tried very hard to pump his tires at the end of the season to bait other GMs to want him.

Development Camp

The Sens Development Camp is here and it’s always fun to look at the invitees (keeping in mind it’s a virtual lock that none will become even part of the BSens roster):
Goalies
Riley Mercer, DOB 04, QMJHL, .902
Backup behind the undrafted Jacob Goobie (who had an awful year)
Charlie Schenkel, DOB 04, OHL, .894
6’6 local guy; backup to the undrafted Samuel Ivanov (who had an awful year)
Defensemen
Drew Bavaro (R), DOB 00, NCAA, 37-6-13-19
Second in scoring behind Colorado pick Nick Leivermann (7-187/17)
Caeden Carlisle (L), DOB 04, OHL, 59-5-13-18
Third in scoring; leader and Vancouver pick Kirill Kudryavtsev (7-208/22) had almost three times as many points; no relation to former BSen Chris
Alexis Daviault (L), DOB 05, OHL, 71-4-18-22
Undersized (5’11) local boy a distant third in scoring
Roberto Mancini (L), DOB 03, OHL 66-13-12-25
Local boy was a distant fourth in scoring
Bronson Ride (L), DOB 05, OHL 71-4-12-16
6’6 was a distant fifth in scoring
Djibril Toure (R), DOB 03, OHL 57-5-11-16
6’7 switched from junior-B to the OHL this past season; seventh in scoring
Forwards
Daniil Bourash (RW), DOB 04, QMJHL 66-41-29-70
Belarussian was second in scoring behind the undrafted Tristan Allard (who has signed with Syracuse in the AHL)
Cole Burbidge (CL), DOB 05, QMJHL 68-19-31-50
Finished a distant second to the undrafted Brady Burns
Connor Clattenburg (LW), DOB 05, OHL 56-2-8-10
Local boy who lead his team in PIMs; teammate of Carlisle above
Tarun Fizer (CR), DOB 01, ECHL 62-27-23-50
The former WHLer is an oddity, as you don’t see minor pro players in camps like this very often; he was second in scoring behind the undrafted Cameron Wright
Mitchell Martin (LW), DOB 03, OHL 47-13-21-34
Big winger finished eighth in scoring
Stuart Rolofs (LW), DOB 03, OHL 62-32-29-61
Local boy finished second in scoring behind the undrafted Ryan Gagnier
Tyler Savard (LW), DOB 03, OHL 56-17-30-47
Seventh in scoring on a stacked team
Ty Thorpe (CR), DOB 02, WHL 65-37-34-71
Lead his team in scoring and played a few games in the ECHL; teammate of first-round pick Samuel Honzek (1-16/23 Cgy)
Ethan Whitcomb (LW), DOB 04, USHL 53-24-24-48
Second in scoring on a rebuilding roster (top scorer and Buffalo pick (6-170/22) Jake Richard was traded mid-season)

The Curtis Lazar effect

It’s difficult to imagine a less impressive first-round ‘success’ than Lazar (1-17/13; 453-38-57-95), but the guy must interview well or have a fabulous agent because he keeps getting contracts. I wanted to illustrate that not only is he meaningless statistically, but that he drags down every team he plays for (a bad luck charm, if you will). Let’s look at his season-by-season dance card:

14-15 Ott – wild card loses 2-4 to Mtl
15-16 Ott – missed playoffs
16-17 Cgy (2nd (Alex Formenton) trade; GM Treliving) – wild card loses 0-4 to Ana
17-18 Cgy – missed playoffs
18-19 Cgy – western champs lose 1-4 to Col (spent the year in the minors)
19-20 Buf – missed playoffs
20-21 Bos (Taylor Hall trade; GM Sweeney) – 3rd seed loses in 2nd round 2-4 to lower seed NYI
21-22 Bos – wild card loses 3-4 to Car
22-23 NJ (pick trade; GM Fitzgerald) – 2nd seed loses in 2nd round 1-4 to Car

Inexplicably he’s made the playoffs six times ((30-2-1-3; three by trade), where he’s often a healthy scratch; he cannot help lower seeded teams win and drags down higher seeds–for the love of god stop signing him! Calgary had it right when they buried him in the minors (18-19).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 1, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments