The Athletic are predicting a 10-15 point improvement for the Sens this season (the chart and more detailed analysis is here). I think that’s a fair guess. They see the team as being on the bubble with the potential to be much better or worse depending on the unknowns of the season (which fits a team on the bubble). The Athletic rates their top-six forward group as eighth in the league and rate their blueline 11th (which is a surprise). They warn that the team is overdependent on the powerplay (getting more pp time last season than any other by a wide margin), which is unlikely to repeat itself this year. There are also concerns about the goaltending and Chychrun (who played very protected minutes in Arizona). The thing about Chychrun is he’s on a good contract should things turn sour (the same cannot be said for Korpisalo).

The Sens finally re-signed Sokolov and I wonder what made the negotiations drag. Did the Sens want more term, or did Sokolov? Dorion has a tradition of two-year deals with the second one-way for prospects like Sokolov–was this part of the picture and the Russian rejected it? In the end the affable Russian signed a one-year, two-way deal that will likely see him in Belleville for most of the season (barring roster changes).

Speaking of roster changes, there are rumours that the Sens are trying to get rid of Mathieu Joseph‘s absurd contract (passim), but apparently the asking price is a 1st-round pick (they do have two in 2024). This ridiculous cost would be due to both the Sens not wanting money back and the fact that everyone knows they are in cap hell. All of this due to Dorion’s mismanagement–there was no need to sign Joseph to that deal in the first place (the problem is less the dollar amount than the term). It would be much easier for the team to move Brannstrom, which is what I thought the Sens would do when he was re-signed (Zub is also overpaid/too much term, but there’s less pressure to move him). Joseph is doing them a favour by scoring in the pre-season (something he did not in the regular last year), but like Zaitsev, they will have to over pay to get rid of him.

Both Tomas Hamara (coming off a difficult season in the OHL) and Jorian Donovan (coming off an excellent season in the OHL) have been sent from camp back to junior, as expected.

In just-Dorion-things: the Sens signed 20-year old Djibril Toure to an ELC. The 6’7 blueliner (and occasional clothing model) switched from junior-B to the OHL this past season and was seventh in scoring on his team. This has disaster written all over it (the numbers suggest he’s a lumbering defender with no puck skills). The Sens have gone down this road many times before (see below) and the fact that it never works has had no impact on repeating the effort. His numbers:
Djibril Toure (DR), DOB 03
20-21 CCHL 22-2-4-6
21-22 CCHL 23-0-8-8
22-23 OHL 57-5-11-16
I can’t recall anyone with this resume becoming a quality NHLer (I’m not sure any have become quality AHLers), but the org cannot resist big defensemen. There’s no room for him in Belleville, so I assume he’s returning to the OHL. The Sens have a ton of prospects just like him (the abandoned Ben Roger and Chandler Romero from ’21; Filip Nordberg and Theo Wallberg from ’22, and Matthew Andonovski and Nicholas VanTassell from this year), which (again) makes the signing baffling. If I was a betting man he’ll be bundled in a trade or directly jettisoned in ~2 years.

Speaking of jettisoned, former Sens prospects Jonathan Aspirot (who spent four seasons in the minors) has a PTO with Calgary. He’s the second-to-last member of that roster to land somewhere (whether Calgary signs him is an open question). I said a long time ago that he was an unremarkable player who was unlikely to pan out–one could argue he was an adequate AHL blueliner, but that doesn’t necessitate an ELC.

This article was written by Peter Levi

September 27, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

The prospect tournament finished with the Sens 1-2-0 (beating Jersey 5-2, losing to Pittsburgh 8-3, and losing 2-1 to Montreal). The Sens had the most invitees of any team in the tournament (this is a weird year for prospects where the failures of the 2021 draft are hitting hardest) and high end prospect Ridley Greig only played in the first game (Scott Wheeler thought he was the best Sen in the tournament; Fizer, below, being the best invitee–we also get a shoutout from Wheeler for Josh Doan, the price paid for the Sens inexplicably picking up Derek Stepan during the rebuild).

ECHLer Tarun Fizer lead them in points (4-1-5) which likely earns him a shot at an AHL-contract (he’s made it to main camp). Leevi Merilainen was in goal for the win and the final game and was excellent in both; invitee (and local boy) Charlie Schenkel got lite up by the Penguins. Besides Fizer the tournament has served to remove invitees from camp (the wins and losses don’t really matter). For fans curious about Fizer, he was one of the few players at development camp with offensive talent (cf), whose background is as an undersized, productive center in the WHL (his last three seasons 112-42-82-124), who caught on in the ECHL last season (62-27-23-50, good for second on his team in scoring; none of his linemates from Victoria were drafted, but the top defenseman, Gannon Laroque, was picked by San Jose, 4-103/21).

The training camp roster is out, which naturally excludes the two unsigned RFAs (Pinto and Sokolov [he was signed hours after I posted this]). Besides Fizer above, 6’7 RD Toure has also been invited along with LW Clattenburg and LW Jackson Stewart. The latter is the only one who wasn’t at development camp, but like Clattenburg has no discernible skill so is simply an extra body. In essence, the only surprise is Fizer who, again, is simply looking for an AHL-contract. The only player fighting for an NHL spot is PTO Josh Bailey who will need to push someone out to get in.

There’s a rumour Peter Chiarelli is going to be added to the Sens management group and if that’s true let’s hope they keep him away from the draft. In both Boston and Edmonton his draft record is atrocious and whatever skills he has they do not apply to scouting or amateur talent assessment.

What do we make of the aborted Mike Babcock saga in Columbus? I think the story is less about Babcock, who simply can’t navigate modern coaching, and more about Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen and President John Davidson (no idea how either have maintained their positions). The only Sens connection I can really make to Babcock is when they had his son at development camp for a couple of years (2016 and 2017–he may have been there after, but I wasn’t paying attention), which fits Dorion’s obsession with bloodlines (passim). This likely finishes Babcock in the league (who wants the headache?), and probably helps the Blue Jackets as they will get a more fitting coach behind the bench.

This article was written by Peter Levi

September 19, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The rookie tournament is here and it’s always fun to see who is on the roster. I’ll skip the familiar faces, since our focus is on the invitees. Signed/drafted players participating: Merilainen (G), Andonovski (D), Donovan (D), Hamara (D), Kleven (D), Boucher (F), Daoust (F), Greig (F), Jarventie (F), Ostapchuk (F). The rest (which includes a ton of players from development camp, who are marked in green):
Goalies
Collin MacKenzie, DOB 04, OHL, .928 – undersized (6’0) local boy
Charlie Schenkel, DOB 04, OHL, .894 – 6’6 local boy
Defensemen
Caeden Carlisle (L), DOB 04, OHL, 59-5-13-18
Roberto Mancini (L), DOB 03, OHL 66-13-12-25
Simon Motew (R), DOB 03, OHL 57-4-25-29
Bronson Ride (L), DOB 05, OHL 71-4-12-16; 6’6
Thomas Stewart (R), DOB 03, OHL 61-4-17-21
Djibril Toure (R), DOB 03, OHL 57-5-11-16; 6’7
Forwards
Daniil Bourash (RW), DOB 04, QMJHL 66-41-29-70
Cole Burbidge (CL), DOB 05, QMJHL 68-19-31-50
Connor Clattenburg (LW), DOB 05, OHL 56-2-8-10; local boy
Tarun Fizer (CR), DOB 01, ECHL 62-27-23-50
Mikael Huchette (CR), DOB 03, QMJHL 15-4-4-8
Mitchell Martin (LW), DOB 03, OHL 47-13-21-34
Stuart Rolofs (LW), DOB 03, OHL 62-32-29-61; local boy
James Stefan (RW), DOB 03, WHL 64-22-42-64
Jackson Stewart (LW), DOB 04, OHL 54-8-3-11
Ty Thorpe (CR), DOB 02, WHL 65-37-34-71
Mitch Walinski (RW), DOB 98, CCC 22-14-12-26

There’s not much skill among the invitees and the only possible development to look for is players being signed to ECHL or AHL contracts (generally with older prospects like Fizer or Walinski).

The Sens signed Josh Bailey to a PTO. It’s rare for PTO’s to make a team, but it does happen (Brassard did it last year). My guess is he’s added to fill things out if Pinto‘s negotiations drag. His last two seasons:

Joshua Bailey, RW, DOB 89, 1-9/08 NYI
21-22 74-14-30-44
22-23 64-8-17-25

The soon-to-be 34-year old has spent his entire NHL career with the Islanders and is clearly nearing the end. He’s been a better in the playoffs (0.70) than the regular season (0.54), although the sample size of the former isn’t large. Because of MacEwen‘s contract there’s no space for him unless Pinto holds out or someone like Joseph is moved (which would free up much needed cap space for the Sens, but I doubt there are many takers–on paper only eight teams can afford him).

One thing worth considering for the upcoming season is the expected health of Ottawa’s blueline. While the top-four is solid on paper, two of its components have significant injury histories which would have a major impact on the team’s success. Let’s look:

Chabot GP over the last three seasons: 49-59-68
Injuries the last two years: ‘upper body’ (Feb/21), ‘upper body’ (May/21), Broken hand (Mar/22), Concussion (Nov/22), Broken wrist/torn ligament (Apr/23)
Chychrun GP over the last three seasons 56-47-48 (never more than 68 in his career)
Injuries the last two years: ‘upper body’ (Dec/21), Ankle (Mar/22), Wrist (Oct/22), Hamstring (Mar/23)

With Sanderson and Zub (who missed 29-games last year) you have a sophomore and a guy who isn’t valued as a puck mover. The defensive depth in Ottawa is not very good when it comes to the transition game (after Brannstrom, assuming he isn’t dealt, cf), there’s just two prospects: Thomson and Guenette. All the other blueliners (Hamonic, JBD, Kleven, Matinpalo, Larsson, Heatherington, Sebrango) are either established as deficient in that area or weren’t expected to do so as prospects. I don’t think the Sens can challenge for a playoff spot without having at least one of Chabot or Chychrun in the lineup.

The Sens hired Sean Tierney to be their Director of Hockey Analytics, which is interesting since the organization is notorious for its dismissal of analytics. Tierney’s background includes Analytics for Montreal’s AHL team (2017-21; Tierney’s Linkedin lists this entire era as Hamilton, but the franchise moved to Laval in 2017), which was under Andlauer, during which time (2019) he created Charting Hockey before moving to be the Director of Hockey Services for the Mark Cuban-backed Sportlogiq (2021) while continuing to teach for the Catholic Board (CDSBEO). What stands out is that he’s a local guy with a connection to Andlauer and no NHL experience. It felt like something Andlauer pushed and that has been confirmed, but whatever work Tierney does I think Dorion will ignore it as long as he’s the GM.

Back in June I talked about how the press had meaningfully ignored the NHL’s decision to give up on political messaging on jersey’s and how that fits the basic approach I see from those covering the league–wax poetic when it’s just talk, but ignore it if it might impact the bottomline. There’s a very easy comparison to make between TSN‘s coverage of Hockey Canada’s inclusion conversation and their approach to the NHL’s actions. This isn’t even addressing the issue itself, just an observation on the coverage. To quote George Carlin about censorship in the 70s: we’re just looking for a little consistency between rhetoric and action.

On the trivial side of things, apparently nearly all the usual local reporters who covered the Sens in the past are now off the beat (other than Bruce Garrioch). I stopped paying attention to Postmedia long ago (for obvious reasons), but at some point Don Brennan (passim) was removed and now even Ken Warren is gone (passim). Tim Baines, whom I’m essentially unfamiliar with (cf), is getting the beat according to Nichols.

This article was written by Peter Levi

September 15, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments