For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).

One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.

There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.

We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.

NHL
2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals
2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher
2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford
2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith
2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith
2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith
2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith
AHL
(Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East)
2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton)
2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst
2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann
2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid)
2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid)
2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round
2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell

In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).

Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.

Trades
2016-17
1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player.
Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool
Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar
2017-18
Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything
Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado)
Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster
Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton)
1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto)
2018-19
Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below)
Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system)
Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour
Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later)
Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now
2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out
Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA)
2019-20
Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out
Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible)
J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona)
2020-21
Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that)
2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out
Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe
2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona)
2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA
Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired
2021-22
Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why?
Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it
2022-23
Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it
Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close
Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets
Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, if Chychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile
Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season?
Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder

Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?

Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23)
We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player:
1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher)
1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig)
2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie)
2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov)
3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen)
4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin)
5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic)
6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt)
7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)

I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.

Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).

What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.

FA Signings (Not comprehensive)
Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell
Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand
MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now
Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well
Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season)
Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing
Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired
Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik)
Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)

Re-signed (Not comprehensive)
Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions
Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season
White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28
Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)

I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.

Cap Hell

The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:

Removed: Debrincat (trade, 6.4), Talbot (3.666), Hamonic (re-signed, -1.9/1.1), Watson (1.5), Holden (1.3), Gambrell (0.95), Gauthier (0.8), Brown (0.75), Brassard (0.75)=total: 18.01
Added: Tarasenko (FA, 5.0), Zub (re-signed, +2.1/4.6), Korpisalo (FA, 4.0), Kubalik (trade, 2.5), Brannstrom (re-signed, +0.686/2.0), MacEwen (FA, 0.775)=total: 15.06

If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.

There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.

The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.

This article was written by Peter Levi

November 2, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments