The Sens signed winger Tyler Motte to a one-year deal (1.35; I say ‘winger’ because that’s largely how he’s been used in the NHL). It’s a move that puzzled the fanbase, but the local media applauded it for adding depth. While his cap hit is higher than his prior deal, his actual salary is lower than what he made last season (1.45). Motte is a former 4th-round pick (4-121/13; cf old predictions) is a marginal player who struggles to stay healthy (he hasn’t played a full season since 18-19). Here are his last four seasons (including PPG, TOI, and where he sat among forwards in scoring):
2018-19 Van 74-9-7-16 0.21 TOI 10:49 (10th) 2019-20 Van 34-4-4-8 0.23 TOI 10:28 (13th) 2020-21 Van 24-6-3-9 0.37 TOI 12:30 (9th) 2021-22 Van/NYR 58-7-8-15 0.25 TOI 11:43/10:08 (11th) Career 269-35-27-62 0.23
The Rangers gave up a 4th-round pick to acquire him and he proved to be an irrelevant acquisition. From the numbers we can see that he’s a fourth-line player whose defensive/penalty-killer reputation comes via Travis Green when he coached Vancouver. The commentary is that he was brought in as insurance for players like Parker Kelly and Mark Kastellic, as well as to apply pressure to Alex Formenton, but the latter makes no sense to me as Motte can’t replace Formenton (completely different players in terms of talent). This kind of bottom-end acquisition is common for Dorion (he traded for Dylan Gambrell after all).
The only analysis I’ve seen of him is via Nichols, who points to Motte having had a career season in terms of his underlying numbers and shrugging his shoulders about whether it’s a fluke or not. What do I think? One good season out of six is an outlier until proven otherwise. I’m unconvinced he’s a necessary addition, however, he’s easy to move or bury, so the acquisition cost is low. Broadly it’s not a bad idea to have security in case prospects aren’t ready or don’t work out, albeit a contract like his can gum up the works if the roster isn’t handled properly.
Three years ago I wrote an article about hockey’s declining popularity, putting it in the context of a general decline in traditional sports. It was around that time that the NHL finally saw scoring increase after seven years of stagnation (an increase whose cause is difficult to point too; you can look at historical scoring levels here). In that article I said that most of the arguments to explain the decline were about inter-sport competition, but that’s no longer the argument being made. Forbes blamed Millennials for lower participation in sport and altered viewing habits (cutting the cord with cable, etc). I think there’s some truth to that, but my point was that the interest in competitive games has not changed, but has shifted to things like e-sports. What sparked this discussion in the media was information put out in 2017 by Market Watch about the aging trend. Let’s briefly look at that data (the data points are 2000, 2006, and 2016; the number represents the average age of the fanbase):
Golf N/A-59-64 Tennis 51-56-61 NASCAR N/A-49-58 MLB 52-52-57 WNBA 42-49-55 Olympics 45-50-53 NCAA football/basketball 47/44-48/48-52/52 NFL 44-46-50 Boxing 45-47-49 MMA N/A-N/A-49 (see below) NHL 33-42-49 NBA 40-40-42 MLA N/A-39-40
MMA was not included on the Market Watch list, presumably because of how niche it was during the first two data points, but Sports Business Journal did the research in 2017 and pegged it at 49. In the key demographic the number of avid sports fans has dropped from 42% to 34% over the past decade. In the original article the leagues were all warned by social psychologists that they were in trouble, but they were ignored because it was believed that once younger people hit 35+ they would re-engage (something that has not happened).
When it comes to the NHL, we know that typically hockey fans are white, affluent/educated, and male. What’s occurring to the league is their traditional fanbase is aging out (20 years ago it was nestled in the key 18-34 demographic, but no longer)–so younger white men aren’t as attracted to the sport–and they’ve failed to attract anyone else (this issue isn’t unique to the NHL as can be seen from the trends above even though other sports have much more diverse demographics). The only tangible effort the NHL has made to change that is expansion, which doesn’t address the underlying problems.
How are the various sports cartels trying to increase profits given the circumstances? They are following the esports model of promoting gambling–ethical concerns aside, there’s no better way to hook people (the lifeblood of the NFL and horse racing). The other is investing in reality TV content–videos about the players and their lives (how well this works is unclear to me). One of the major issues, I believe, is simply how long the games and seasons are, but there’s no good way to significantly change that. Covid shutdowns and limitations simply exasperated the issue (Samba numbers show all leagues shrinking except the NFL in 2021), as all the leagues are losing out on younger fans who might otherwise be attracted to sport through participation or viewing. I’m not arguing the NHL or sport is going to collapse or disappear, just that the shrinkage is likely to continue locking leagues into particular niches.
I want to emphasize the point about esports because I feel like in many ways it directly competes with traditional sports for fan time and attention. The chart above is from 2018, long before Covid, and already it was drawing more fans than any sport in the US other than the NFL. But we can dig deeper:
Looking at that you might say, hey, in 2019 conventional sport was still overall ahead, but let’s look at more data:
Keep in mind that the US (and North America) is the smallest part of the eports market currently–Asia is first and then Europe–but the trend is obvious. The advantage video games have over sport is accessibility, both in terms of affordability and the fact that you can participate from home and watch from anywhere (esports stars also fit the ‘everyman‘ category–something that feels more easily aspired too). Traditional sports lag far behind when it comes to making themselves accessible digitally. Old approaches of a paywall make little sense when esports events are free (they are also much more common and shorter–multiple seasons a year, allowing for greater drama than the one-and-done yearly festival of traditional sports). I don’t know that there’s a solution for sport given their dependence on both physical attendance in stadiums as well as long term deals signed with cable TV providers–that limits their options–so in the short term the pain is only going to continue.
Does any of this impact the average sports fan? No, but if you are concerned with the health of your sport, the alarm bells should be ringing, as there’s little sign the aging trend is going to stop any time soon.
Despite my lack of posts I have been working on various things (some of which I’ll fold into digests like this)–I want to update my article on hockey’s popularity from three years ago and when I finish that it will be its own thing. I still intend to give a (very belated) preview for Belleville, but I’m unsure when that will appear. That out of the way, I wanted to catch-up on a few things, some of which are from the distant past at this point: -In terms of player performances, most of what we’ve seen this season is as expected–Stutzle will eventually score, so his goalless streak doesn’t concern me; Ennis‘ initial hot streak has cooled down, but he’s been a useful addition thus far; Paul and Formenton have deflated hype and performed as expected; Sanford has been underwhelming and I’m not sure what his issue is -I think the Sens slightly overpaid Tkachuk, but getting that deal done is ultimately a good thing and as long as he doesn’t unexpectedly crash and burn in the next 3 years it’s worth it even with a decline at the end of the contract -I thought sending Brannstrom to the minors to start the season dynamited D. J. Smith’s declaration that the best players play; I’m glad he’s back, although expectations need to be kept in check -I’m not sure why, other than for financial reasons, Gustavsson was returned to Belleville–why not play him until he regresses to the mean (if he does)? While the BSens need help between the pipes, surely the Sens need it more [Turns out it’s a roster-limit issue] -Playing at a .318 pace through eleven games reveals just how silly it was for Pierre Dorion to declare that the rebuild over; I always thought that was for marketing reasons, but by creating the expectation we’re now seeing the awkward conversations about how realistic it is to have said that. I expect the team to have a better record by the end of the year, but the result isn’t a huge surprise to me -Travis Yost has a short piece praising Zub (nothing new to Sens fans I think, but some numbers to back-up what they see) -Nichols goes over the horror of the Sens D and poses the question (without answering) if coaching is part of the problem–given how weak that D-core is, I’m willing to give Smith a pass to some extent (I think the order from on-high, ie Melnyk, that one-way contracts play, has added a caveat to ‘the best players play’ moto) -I’ve enjoyed Shawn Simpson making fun of the Del Zotto signing–I suspect he knows who is responsible (McGuire?) and, given that he’s not wrong, it has to rankle the Sens’ brass -Remember four years ago when the Sens had Pius Suter at their rookie/main camp? He’s having a solid sophomore season in Detroit and you have to wonder why the Sens didn’t take the plunge at the time and invest in him -A story I missed was Anders Nilssonalleging the Sens hid a concussion he suffered; there’s been no follow-up to this so it’s difficult to say much more about it (if true it’s obviously terrible)
What’s been the story of the 4-6-0 BSens? Lack of scoring, struggling D-corps, goaltending inconsistency, and injuries. While the org made an inspired pick-up to land current leading scorer Jake Lucchini from the Leafs, they’ve seen a parade of ECHL filler accomplishing nothing while veteran signings have been underwhelming (Agozzino has underproduced and Aberg‘s production is buffed by some meaningless second assists on empty net goals). In my earlier preview I was concerned by the limp veteran signings and thus far that’s largely been borne out (albeit Clark Bishop has been injured and Logan Shaw is in Ottawa). It’s worth emphasizing that injuries have meant a lot of roster juggling and I think the team is better than their current record.
As for the most exciting prospects, the young blueliners have been a mixed bag thus far–you expect more from both Brannstrom and Bernard-Docker (Thomson, in limited action, has been on-point), although in fairness to them you have to have someone to pass the puck too. On the forward side Sokolov had a slow start (pointless in 5 games) before heating up; Jarventie also started slowly (1 point in 4 games) before performing as expected–as a rookie, the latter adjustment is completely understandable. All these players should continue to get better, so it’s the core around them that’s could be the stumbling block. As for the goaltenders, both Sogaard and Mandolese have been erratic, but as young ‘tenders this is not unexpected–given the team in front of them, they have to be excellent or else things fall apart.
I followed the Blackhawks/Brad Aldrich scandal and Chicago’s actions (or, largely, inaction) does not surprise me (I still vividly remember the Penn State sex abuse scandal from ten years ago). I do think this is a tipping point for the NHL and that we’re unlikely to see something similar occur again–that doesn’t mean scandals from the past won’t come to light, however. Whether Kevin Cheveldayoff should have resigned or not seems to be the one lingering issue. With so little to go on, there’s blame to lay on Cheveldayoff for not after the fact pursuing the matter (when it became clear that the Hawks’ promise to look into it was false), but I think it’s clear the actions (or in-actions) taken by the org cannot be laid at his doorstep. What the proper move is considering that, I’m not sure, although it seems like on his own Cheveldayoff would not have acted like Stan Bowman et al, so the NHL not punishing him is something I can live with.
I haven’t written about an EA NHL game in a long time (2018?). I’ve never played them consistently and, for me, what’s most enjoyable is Franchise Mode (formerly called GM Mode). I decided to jump back into the pond this year and I do have some thoughts. Keep in mind I’m playing on a PS4 and that the experience, particularly on PC, is likely different.
The gameplay itself seems slightly better. NHL 20, which I’d experimented with recently (I did not play it when it came out–I got a free copy of it awhile ago), doesn’t feel that different from its prior iterations. NHL 22 seems to have made a small step to feel more like how hockey is played. One specific change I appreciate is that you aren’t locked against the boards as easily as in the past, allowing you to skirt them more effectively.
The drafts continue to be unrealistic, although investing in better scouts does seem to lead to better results (albeit the process of gathering good scouts is tedious since quality scouts get released on the market in a slow dribble). There’s really no other way to get accurate scouting beforehand and allowing the game to sim the scouting for you is less reliable than controlling it yourself (which makes sense in a way, but is a laborious process). While scouting will tell you a player’s attributes at the time, it has an indirect relation to their future potential, such that the potential itself is the only factor that really matters (so it’s the only thing to bother looking into).
Other issues that have carried over: the number of prospects for the draft magically shrinks as soon as the IRL players are gone, emptying some regions completely (the Allsvenskan and the Rest of the World). There’s also a very weird situation where a player drafted will be immediately released to become a free agent by AI teams–I have no idea why this is the case since unsigned players don’t count against the limit. The special trade deadline feature seems pointless, as AI teams continue to offer horrendous trades while rejecting perfectly valid ones. I also have no idea why there’s no option to stop the AI from adjusting your trade parameters.
A broader issue are the limitations in searching for players. Let’s say I want to sign a free agent and I’m looking for a depth player who is both physical and can skate–you can’t search for both–it’s one category with very minimal filters. For most gamers this is fine as they chase a Stanley Cup and are looking for established players (who cares about the AHL team or future?), but for me it’s a constant irritation until my rebuild (how I always start) truly gets going.
The player editor remains a joke, with the only meaningful option being beard or no beard. I have no idea why this is the case–presumably it’s a technical issue, but if so, I’d rather it was completely removed or at least renamed (call it a Facial Hair Editor).
An improvement is that when you see what a player wants for a contract he actually seems to mean it, whereas previously you’d offer that amount and have it rejected (which was pointlessly irritating).
This is a rambling set of observations, I realize, rather than a review. At the end of the day I don’t think the game has changed much–if you enjoyed prior iterations, this will please you, but if you didn’t EA hasn’t done enough to change your mind. Hockey is probably too small a market to ever get proper investment, so that all we’ll see are tweaks and few (if any) of those will impact the narrow way I like to play the game. EA’s focus is most certainly on microtransactions and other forms of monetization, so the sorts of changes I’d love to see aren’t likely.
I was thinking of updating my old article about Pierre Dorion’s trade track record, but it turns out CapFriendly conveniently already tracks that. Looking through his moves since my exploration in 2018, my impression is largely the same: Dorion does reasonably well when dumping players for assets, but his efforts to acquire talent to help the team win is awful (ie the amateur scouting is pretty good, while the pro scouting is not, which is nothing new for the org). Where my tracking cuts off in that article was prior to the summer trades of 2018, and it’s hard not to be slapped in the face with how much acquiring Matt Duchene cost versus how little they’ve received in moving him (it’s already down to Lassi Thomson for Duchene), or how there’s no hope of equal value from the Mark Stone trade (even if Erik Brannstrom and Egor Sokolov achieve their potential), or cluelessly acquiring Derek Stepan, and on and on. There are also baffling decisions like giving up a pick for Josh Brown‘s signing rights–a player who won’t be in the NHL in a few years. Ultimately, all Dorion has to do is make his owner happy, but as a fan I don’t know how there can be any trust left in him from the fanbase at this point (apparently there still is).
Speaking of bad deals, Travis Yost has a good article looking at why defensemen who don’t perform well get rewarded with contracts/ice time. Yost’s basic argument is that reputation plays a big role in how this happens, and I would add that size and physicality also matters.
While I think a buyout for Colin White was inevitable (due to how they work for a player his age), his shoulder injury makes that decision even simpler. I, along with others at the time, thought the contract he was given was ridiculous and that it serves as an example of how much Dorion struggles to project pro talent (I seem to be one of the few who understood how limited White‘s abilities were–we can see Nichols and Dom Luszczyszyn both fumbling with their estimations at the time–an impression I gained by watching him in the AHL , cf). With that said, he’s still a useful NHL player and it will be interesting to see how much impact his absence has.
I won’t dwell on this much, but I came across a good (and succinct) video about Pierre McGuire and his past as a coach. For some fans there’s not much new here–McGuire is an old school guy who, when given an opportunity, was unable to thrive in his era. I don’t think he has much (if any) useful insight to offer the org, but I also don’t think his involvement is going to cause additional damage (Dorion is quite capable of that on his own).
The Sens roster is pairing down, but without Brady Tkachuk signed I fully expect the Sens to keep extra bodies to be cap-compliant in case the negotiations drag on into the regular season. Logan Shaw, Andrew Agozzino, and Parker Kelly should be sent down sooner than later. I don’t expect Tyler Ennis to be signed, but the club will likely keep Scott Sabourin on the roster until the Tkachuk situation is sorted out (he plus Filip Gustavsson gets you to the cap as things stand without Brady). Once that happens I’d imagine both get sent down. D. J. Smith keeps talking about how the best players will play, but I don’t think the ego of Pierre Dorion could handle sitting newly minted FA-signee Del Zotto. It does seem, however, that Smith has yielded to the obvious in putting Pinto as the second-line pivot (as opposed to shoehorning in Tierney or the always disappointing Colin White).
As for who was sent down there were no surprises. From my point-of-view Lassi Thomson did the most to make his case that he’s taken a step forward–he was assertive with the puck and his defensive work was solid. On the flip side, a number of players were utterly invisible (FA signees Aberg and Goulbourne, for instance). I will have to revise my hypothetical AHL lineup given injuries and because Pinto is not being sent down, which I’ll do when I preview Belleville’s season (the top two offensive forwards are gone as it stands).
Pre-season is basically meaningless, but watching Mark Kastelic play for the first time I came away unimpressed. I don’t see the hockey sense necessary to be a full-time NHL player–when he has the puck he seems to have no idea what to do with it. Maybe he just had a poor performance in pre-season games, so I don’t want to draw firm conclusions, but in terms of showing what he can do I don’t see future fourth-line potential. I bring this up because Shawn Simpson (among others) have imagined him in that position for this season, so I have to think that’s a projection based on his performance at practice and his reputation as opposed to the pre-season games. Regardless, sending him back to Belleville was the correct decision. Speaking of Simpson, he had praise for Kole Sherwood and I have no idea why (Simmer loves hitting, so it may be as simple as that)–he’s another player who doesn’t seem to understand why the puck is on the ice (cf). He’s on waivers, but I can’t imagine him being claimed.
The Bsens training camp roster is out and I wanted to look at the names I haven’t looked at yet (the bulk of the signed ECHL Atlanta roster is via the link as is the one remaining Ottawa invitee serving as the fourth goalie): Defense Randy Gazzola, 28, DR, ECHL 0.71 (ECHL 0.72) It’s not often a 6’3 righthanded blueliner with offensive skills goes undrafted, but clearly there are enough deficiencies in Gazzola’s game that no one was willing to take a chance on him. He went through the QMJHL (0.79) then five years in Canadian University hockey (0.78) before spending his first pro season in tier-2 Italy followed by an ECHL season last year. He’s already signed with the Toledo Walleye, so he’s hoping to impress the brass for call-ups (offensively he’s a better option than anything currently in Atlanta). Matt Murphy, 26, DL, ECHL 0.39 (ECHL 0.39) The undrafted QMJHLer (0.52) spent four years playing Canadian University hockey (0.54) before having a cup of coffee in the Slovakian league when he turned pro–completing that season in ECHL Fort Wayne (earning a brief call-up to AHL Chicago). He would be hoping for an AHL contract, but it’s more likely that talent-starved Atlanta is his destination. Vincent Sevigny, 20-21, DL, QMJHL 0.73 (QMJHL 0.37) The undrafted QMJHLer on an ATO will likely be returned to Victoriaville once the BSens roster fills out (I’m not clear what other option he has, since an AHL-contract seems very unlikely).
Forwards Rourke Chartier, 25-26, AHL 0.31 (AHL 0.55) WHLer was a fifth-round pick by San Jose and he’s the only man in this group who has both never played in the ECHL and had a cup of coffee in the NHL (13 games in 2018-19); he spent last year with the Marlies and needs a contract–I don’t know if there’s a specific need for him on the roster, but he can certainly play at this level (perhaps the injury to Crookshank is his opportunity). Andrew Sturtz, 27, ECHL 0.84 (ECHL 0.77) This is a familiar name, as the undersized NCAA grad (0.94) was an Ottawa FA signing out of college back in 2018 when the org still did that routinely (looking for the next…Jesse Winchester?–none of them have ever turned out; brief comments by me about him are here). The Sens later packaged him with a pick to acquire Mike Reilly, who was then flipped to Boston for a 3rd in 2022. That aside, he’s a familiar face to the brass, can play at the AHL-level to some degree (0.31), and could certainly help out Atlanta (which is likely where he’s bound if he’s signed). Alexis D’Aoust, 25-26, Slovakia 0.44 (AHL 0.33) The undrafted former QMJHLer (0.81) has put up good numbers in the ECHL (0.87) and spent time in the AHL (0.33) in every pro season; he already has a contract with Trois-Rivieres, so would be looking to land himself an AHL-deal (or make a good enough impression for a call-up). Cedric Pare, 22-23, ECHL 0.60 (ECHL 0.60) QMJHLer (0.73) was a sixth-rounder back in 2017, but the Bruins elected not to sign him and he had a mediocre rookie season in the ECHL last season. It’s difficult to imagine him forcing his way into an AHL-contract, but Atlanta could use more talent up front. Kameron Kielly, 24-25, ECHL 0.50 (ECHL 0.50) Undrafted QMJHLer (0.66) went on to play three seasons of Canadian University hockey (1.41) before turning pro last year. He inexplicably bounced through three ECHL teams which hints at drama, but he certainly has enough talent for that league (his most likely destination if he isn’t cut completely). Philippe Daoust, 19-20, QMJHL 1.33 (QMJHL 0.72) I’m not entirely sure what the Sens sixth-rounder is doing in camp–he’s unsigned, but I thought he was required to go back to the Q this season–maybe he’s old enough to play in the AHL at this stage, although the roster looks too stuffed to accommodate him.
My previous post went up just hours before Logan Brown was traded to St. Louis for Zach Sanford (you can read Nichols’ breakdown here; he goes over Sanford‘s numbers and concludes he’s a solid addition who offers options on the left side for the bottom-six). Put aside the return for a second and think about the departing prospect. To me, Brown is a boom or bust player. He is either going to blossom in St. Louis to the point where Sens fans bemoan the move, or else he’s going to crash and burn and the deal will be lost in the shuffle. One funny thing to note about Brown‘s draft year is the old axiom of ignoring smaller players seems to have returned to the NHL–all the good players who dropped were undersized.
While I don’t think the Sens will do this, I do like Shawn Simpson‘s early ideas for a lineup: Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson Stutzle-Pinto-C. Brown Formenton-Tierney-Paul Sanford-White-Watson Chabot-Zub Mete-Zaitsev Holden-Brannstrom The top-six likely isn’t different than anyone else’s, but there’s definitely a unique slant to everything else beyond the top-pairing. I think there’s no chance this is what happens on opening night, as I don’t believe the org would be comfortable with two smaller blueliners and sitting FA signee Del Zotto and coach-favourite Josh Brown. I think the blueline as presented is about the best one can do with the collection of low-ceiling veterans and ‘tweener prospects that fill out the bottom four positions.
There’s not much reason to discuss pre-season games, but I will point out that the limp, pathetic effort the Sens offered in their 4-0 loss to Toronto featured a roster filled with truculent, ‘good in the corners’ players: Bishop (now hurt), C. Brown, J. Brown, Goulbourne, Paul, Sabourin, Sanford, and Sherwood. I didn’t see the game, but the sentiment is that beyond Parker Kelly no one put in a good effort. Yes, half of these players are AHL-bound, but all of them were either signed as free agents or extended after the season–as marginal players, where’s the energy they are supposed to bring to the lineup? Food for thought.
More Atlanta Gladiator signings: Anthony Florentino – The righthanded blueliner was a 5th-rounder for Buffalo in 2013; his play in the ECHL has been so unremarkable that he’s struggled to stay in it Gabe Guertler – Undrafted former OHLer went through the Canadian University system and spent last year playing in the SPHL (the ECHL’s feeder league) Like most of the Atlanta signings, there seems no likelihood these players would be called-up by the BSens. I have a hard time understanding some of the signings, but perhaps these are largely depth signings rather than top regulars.
I watched the two rookie games between Ottawa and Montreal, as well as the inter-squad scrimmage today. Neither event is particularly meaningful, so I won’t offer a full breakdown, although the former is more competitive (as Angus Crookshank can attest–he’ll miss more than half the season after getting hurt). Performances in these things rarely mean anything, but I was happy with what I saw from Roby Jarventie offensively (particularly in the second game against Montreal). Otherwise nothing struck me as surprising.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s season preview for Ottawa dropped for The Athletic and I think it is spot-on (his predictions last season performed very well, particularly with the Sens; the basic ideas echoed, in brief, by Travis Yost). Dom thinks it’s most likely that the Sens will be in the bottom-10 of the league (but not bottom-5), held back by poor goaltending, a shallow defencecorps, and an intriguing but thin forward mix. His player analysis broadly fits my own, although I’d quibble with Batherson‘s (see below). I want to include a couple of comments about specific players since they run contrary to the chatter one gets from the local media: Zaitsev – “Zaitsev’s biggest issue is that he can’t move the puck. At all. Not a single defender had a worse zone exit rate than Zaitsev’s 11 percent meaning there were a lot of pucks off the glass when he was on the ice. In the offensive zone, he tends to just chuck pucks at the net rather than make a play and he is genuinely where offence goes to die.“ Josh Brown – “I guess someone has to babysit the incapable [Josh Brown]“ Zaitsev and Del Zotto as a shutdown pair – “one of the worst ideas for a shutdown pair in recent memory“ Tkachuk – “He’s a frustrating power forward who hasn’t been able to bury nearly as many chances as he’s expected to. There’s a dispute between public and private data over how valuable his chances actually are, but at the end of the day you still have a player who led all players in shots-per-60 last season who finished 100th in goals-per-60. That’s not good enough.“ Batherson – “He was a mess in 2019-20 at both ends of the ice and even in last year’s improvement only jumped up to 1.43 points-per-60 at five-on-five. That’s third line calibre and it doesn’t feel like he can be a future top line player.“ White – “it’ll be hard to succeed with Nick Paul and Austin Watson on either side of him“
My quibble with Batherson is the sample size, but Dom is following where the analytics are pointing. The comments about the defense and Watson aren’t new outside the Ottawa bubble, but inside the community Paul has been highly praised and here we see dismissal–it’s worth noting.
Besides the two year break I took from this blog, I hadn’t paid much attention to the NHL going back much further (for many reasons, as I’ve gone over before). To that end I’d largely stopped listening to TSN 1200 and reading the local coverage (which I found broadly vapid, predictable, and awash with platitudes and repetition). Coming back to it, other than Shawn Simpson (and Ian Mendes, but The Athletic isn’t local), the radio and print coverage is unchanged. These are people terrified of analytics, serving up the same sets of tired opinions. The fan sites aren’t much better (that includes Youtube channels), and even the legendary Nichols has largely retired out of analysis (Travis Yost was always too good to be limited to Sens coverage–check out his archive here). It’s a funny thing to see that local hockey coverage would have fit in the vapid, platitude-filled days I remember from the 1980s. Some of that entropy undoubtedly comes from the org itself–the fount of access–since neither management nor ownership understand modern analysis of the game, but it’s more than a little puzzling that none of the fan sites has tried to separate themselves in their coverage (excluding The Silver Seven‘s prospect material from Ary and Colin). In a way I get it, as those graduating from fan sites to traditional media have been are among the most bland content producers imaginable.
Speaking of the local scene though–there’s a beef between Shawn Simpson and one of the local hacks? Is it really Garrioch? I’m so out of the loop, but bless Simpson for wanting to move beyond it.
Finally, a little pat on the back to myself for having included a broken link to my Twitter on this blog since I returned–you’d think I would have checked it, but no, I didn’t.
One thing that’s been clear about the org since Trent Mann was promoted in 2017 is, above and beyond seeking certainty over potential, looking for character and truculence. We can (and I do) make fun of the latter–something I associate with Brian Burke and an approach that failed him after its solitary success with Anaheim in 2007 (a team largely built by his predecessors, Al Coates and Bryan Murray). Putting aside its efficacy, what I do think drafting and trading for players like this does is appeal to the fanbase–not casual fans (who are interested in wins and scoring)–but the hardcore. In a strong hockey market, focusing on these fans is a bit like MMO’s targeting whales–the big spenders, the people who commit. To that end, I think it’s a good economic strategy. The concern that remains is production–they can agitate, they can hit, but can they score? It remains an open question.
When you go against the grain there’s always resistance. I’ve briefly discussed the high opinion (shared by the org) of Jake Sanderson and I think my comments have been misunderstood by some. I compared him to players like Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker, not because I think they are literally the same kind of player, but in reference to the potential they were given by scouts when drafted (there’s rarely universal agreement and you can see the opposite opinion here, but I mean the consensus of what I’ve seen). All three prospects had worries about their offensive upside and were slotted as top-four blueliners–that’s all I meant by the comparison. This isn’t my opinion of the player (I’ve haven’t seen any of them play), but a reflection of worries held by scouts–that doesn’t make them right, it’s simply food for thought. Does Sanderson have more potential than the other two? I would hope so, because he was picked far higher in the draft (meaning his talent is considered better), but that wasn’t the point. I’d like nothing better than the guy to be a hall of fame defenseman for Ottawa, but the org habitually over praises their prospects (Jared Cowen comes to mind–someone we now know was riding the coattails of Jared Spurgeon), so I take a wait-and-see approach.
While it’s clear the Sens want to move Logan Brown (something that may prove impossible), more and more I wonder if the same fate awaits Erik Brannstrom. There’s no chance at that they want Brannstrom and Mete in the lineup at the same time, so either the former is intended for the BSens or will get traded (perhaps in an effort to fill one of Pierre McGuire’s 7-man formula).
Speaking of the BSens, one of the fascinating things about the upcoming season is how much the team’s success will depend on their record against just four teams. While almost 70% of their season is played within their division, most of that will be taken up by Laval and Toronto (each 12 games), and Syracuse and Rochester (8 games each). That’s 40 of 72 games (55%). When it comes time to preview the BSens, I’ll take a look at what’s expected for those teams as well.
Scoring in the NHL has started to increase the last four years [based, it seems, on coaching more than anything else], which is an obvious good thing after remaining stagnant for seven (an unprecedented length of time in the NHL to lack variation). This small change comes long after other major leagues took steps to ensure their own games became more entertaining. With that said, it remains below where it needs to be, still lagging behind all historical eras save the primordial pre-Original Six (specifically 23-24 to 40-41). The ten highest scoring games in NHL history are within a twenty-year period (1977-1996), with nine of the ten in the first half of that; the most points recorded in a season stretch from the 70-71 to 95-96, again clustering from the late 70s into the early 90s. This isn’t to say the NHL needs to consistently hit the highs of that era, but a league where major records can’t be challenged has no chance of breaking through the static of the other high profile sports they compete with (outside the homerun chases in the 90s, the MLB has been sliding towards oblivion for decades, cf). Where is the sweet spot for hockey? It’s hard to say, but let’s look at the numbers: Original Six (42-43 to 66-67) 2.93 Expansion (68-69 to 78-79) 2.96 (+0.03) 1980s to Pre-Lockout (79-80 to 93-94) 3.71 (+0.75) Dead Puck Era (94-95 to 03-04) 2.76 (-0.95) Post Lockout Era (05-06 to present) 2.85 (+0.09) The first era was long enough that it has its own internal structure, with higher scoring both at the beginning and end, with a ten-year long Dead Puck Era of its own (from 48-49 to 57-58). The actual high point is 1981-82 (not for the league however, as 43-44 holds that record for the eras we’re sampling). The most popular time for hockey was during the 70s and 80s and, despite continual expansion, the NHLs unwillingness to open the game up has lead to it sinking back down into a regional phenomena heavily impacted by winning. With only 50% of teams playoff bound (unlike the 66% in the Original Six or 76% of the 1980s), soft fanbases quickly checkout when their team is going nowhere–there are just so many other options for their entertainment dollars. I’m happy that the NHL is finally trending in the right direction, but entropy is a powerful force and I feel like a renewed slide towards low scoring affairs could be just around the corner.
I’m surprised HFBoards is still around. A website from an Internet era of two decades earlier, many of the same people post on it and I suppose that fits the older demographic associated with sports. The boards are something that made an impact on me back when I started writing about hockey (for The Hockey Herald in 2007), although I rarely visited the site once I started writing here.
Another Atlanta signing, as goaltender Chris Nell has been signed. The 27-year old NCAA grad failed out of the Rangers organization as an FA-signing and has put up poor numbers in the ECHL.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
The rookie tournament is always fun and with the roster released we can take a peak at the ATOs included (one PTO as well). While it’s not often ATOs make their way into the org, it does happen from time-to-time (I’m excluding Xavier Bernard and Mitchell Hoelscher, because they have already signed an AHL-deal and you can find them here; I’m also excluding PTO Matthew Wedman, because he is on an ECHL-deal and you can find my blurb on him here): Zachary Paputsakis, GL, DOB 2001, OHL Oshawa DNP (prior season .899) The classic local kid; I think he’s simply a fresh body to help fill out the goaltending position for the tourney Ty Hollett, DR, DOB 2003, CCHL Pembroke DNP (prior season 31-3-1-4) Yet another local; as a big, righthand shot blueliner, he’s someone who will be given a lot of rope by scouts (presumably he’s headed to the NCAA); the Sens could have interest in him; no relation to former Sens pick Jordan btw Ben Allison, LW, DOB 2002, QMJHL Acadie-Bathurst 33-9-18-27 From Halifax, but he spent a brief amount of time with Gatineau, so let’s call him local; the son of former Edmonton first round pick Scott (1990), there could be some interest (the Sens aren’t afraid of overage players and like skill from the Q)
This is largely just for fun–it’s unlikely any of these players will become significant pros even at the AHL-level–the Sens simply need bodies to fill out their lineup–but it’s interesting to see who the org brings in.
The re-signed Pierre Dorion, echoing his owner, has declared the rebuild over (forced on the org in 2017, which is just six years after the Bryan Murray rebuild that began in 2011). The Sens now want to contend, so that means spending young assets to acquire proven commodities. Historically Dorion badly overpays, being an abysmal wheeler and dealer when it comes to pro assets (cf, he does better with prospects–the Sens amateur scouting has always been better than their pro scouting), so I’m expecting various painful deals to come (can he trade for Derick Brassard again?). Given that, don’t get too attached to talented prospects currently in the system (the muckers and grinders are, of course, safe). Surely Pierre McGuire’s 7-player profile is being considered for contending, and in July McGuire indicated the Sens were 3-players short of achieving that model. I’m not going to go over how little McGuire was regarded as an NHL coach, or his distrust of analytics (something he doesn’t actually understand–which fits the Sens org perfectly), because the reality is that he’s with the org and a major influence. Here’s what his model looks like: -Two elite centermen (we know the Sens are seeking #2 and good luck with that) -One power forward (presumably Tkachuk) -One specialist forward–PP, PK, or faceoffs (this is such a vague criteria you have to question its worth) -Elite puck-moving defenceman (presumably Chabot) -Elite shutdown defenceman -Elite goaltender (meant to be Murray) Ian Mendes (link above) thinks Connor Brown is the specialist and that Jake Sanderson is the future shutdown D (anyone remember when Cody Ceci was going to be that guy?)–this is certainly Dorion’s opinion of the blueliner. If the Sens want to win now they can’t wait for Sanderson and acquiring three significant assets is very expensive–draft picks can cover some of the cost, but it means giving up well-regarded assets. The org would happily part with Logan Brown, but his value has never been lower. They also seem ready to give up on Erik Brannstrom, but it’s not clear his value is much better than Brown’s. There’s also the issue that very few teams trade elite players and that, when they do, it’s towards the end of their careers. While the Sens have plenty of cap space, they have an internal cap and I can’t see them getting any of the players that might spring to mind for these kinds of positions, so think tier-2 or tier-3 options for each of them (it’s unlikely they would acquire three such assets anyway–one for sure, but at most two).
One thing I should have brought up for context with draft coverage–the Sens believing they know better–is that this opinion is held (broadly) by every organization. Each group, be it an independent scouting service or particular teams, believe that their list is the list. We know from draft assessments that they are all wrong and statistically the picks that work out best are those that fit consensus views. A lot of fans who write about the teams tend to duck the potential flaws in the picks by saying either ‘time will tell’ or pointing to isolated successes in the past–I feel like this is mostly done in ignorance, but clearly some just don’t want to say anything negative.
We’ve had two Atlanta Gladiator signings since my post covering them: Tyler Kobryn, 24, RW, with this being his second year as a pro (coming out of NCAA III, he played with Tulsa last season, 33-3-3-6) Derek Topatigh, 24-25, DR, going into his second year as a pro (coming out of the NCAA, he spent most of last year in the SPHL) Neither player is going to be on the BSens radar, barring an unexpected breakout at the ECHL-level.
This is just an observation about fan-coverage of the team: it’s blindingly homogeneous (exactly the same as MCU fandom). What’s interesting to me is this goes beyond the narrow range of the hobby and is echoed by political leanings–all the individuals seem to come from the same class and express the same views. It makes the coverage repetitive and shallow, as traditional media is already stuffed with this material. For me, Nichols (even if he seems to have shifted over to positivity these days–‘hey, it could work out’ seems to be his new maxim), Ary, and Travis Yost are who I consistently read. It seems like Colin Cudmore has also transitioned into this category (judging by how seriously he tackles prospect assessment), but I’m not familiar enough with his recent material to be sure (although I approve of the rigorous approach). I don’t read everything, so there are undoubtedly nuggets of good coverage scattered around the fandom, but I remain baffled by the large percentage of people who write about the sport without an angle or focus to make it stand out.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
Here are some bits & pieces: —Filip Gustavsson‘s new contract is typical of the Sens (a two-year deal with the second being one-way); I’m less certain about his abilities given that in the past he has struggled with being ‘the guy’ while doing very well in spot duty (cf)–has he turned the corner? It won’t matter if Mads Sogaard is ready for prime time, but it will be interesting to watch. –In retrospect I should have included Erik Brannstrom in my BSens lineup speculation; to inject him he slides into the top spot on the right side, shifting Thomson down to the second pairing, Bernard-Docker to the third, and Williams to the pressbox. I just don’t think that situation can remain tenable throughout the season and trading a blueliner must be on the menu for the Sens. –I stopped reading The Athletic around the same time I stopped writing this blog, so returning to it almost two years later I was surprised to find that only Ian Mendes covers the Sens (RIP articles from Nichols, who moved to Substack–you can read a bit of a word salad from him on the draft, which can be boiled down to “Will it pan out? Time will tell,” which feels like Nichols resting his behind firmly on the fence–read him at his best here and here–I like the latter particularly). –I skipped covering the last two Sens draft, but I’m not surprised that the conservative, grit-loving Trent Mann has continued his philosophy (cf; the hiring of Pierre McGuire, an anti-analytics guy, is yet another conservative move by the org). As I mentioned when reviewing prior drafts, it’s simply too soon to assess Mann’s work–maybe he’s a genius, but Occam’s Razor says he’ll do no better than his predecessors (what’s genuinely in question is how many stars he lands). I wanted to cover The Silver Seven‘s annual prospect ranking, but the caliber of writers from the site is so uneven I don’t think it’s feasible. –There’s a great article from Scott Wheeler about how scouts assess players (there’s no real surprises, but he goes over the importance of context–ie things like how playing with Daniel Sprong inflated Filip Chlapik’s value). I’m gratified to see that my old idea of using third party rankings to create a scouting consensus for draft picks has become normalized and is widely available–it’s a simple idea and I have no idea why it took so long to proliferate–however much some may poopoo the idea, it’s the only tool fans have to access professional assessment. –You can watch/listen to an interesting interview with Sens prospect Egor Sokolov. –I think in my next post I’ll do a review of the Sens 2020 and 2021 drafts, as it will help me familiarize myself with the prospects. I’ve noticed the fan insanity over Jake Sanderson is almost at the same fever pitch as Brady Tkachuk and we’ll see if that falls as flat with me as it does with the later. –For those interested in assessing the Sens at the draft, check out my review of the Sens 2008-14 draft record–there’s some fascinating things to be observed in the data (as well as the relative value derived from them). I think I should have included my old review of the Sens AHL tendencies which overlaps that period of time and shows the shifting philosophy from Tim Murray to Randy Lee.
The Sens ECHL affiliate, the Atlanta Gladiators, have been busy signing players in the off-season. A few of these players could see time in Belleville, so I thought I’d briefly take a look at them.
Defense Tim Davison, 27-28, DL, ECHL 0.38 (ECHL 0.44) The undrafted NCAA grad spent most of last season with Greenville; this will be his fourth pro season Dalton Thrower, 27-28, DR, tier-3 Sweden 0.16 (ECHL 0.20) A second-round pick by Montreal back in 2012, he hasn’t seen AHL ice since 2015-16, but as a gritty player he may have some appeal as a call-up Greg Campbell, 26-27, DL, DNP (ECHL 0.14) The undrafted NCAA grad took last season off and returns for his sophomore attempt as a pro. Josh Thrower, 25-26, DR, SPHL 0.18 (ECHL 0.11) The brother of Dalton, the former WHLer has established himself as a depth ECHL blueliner and wouldn’t be on the BSens radar Malcolm Hayes, 26-27, DR, SPHL 0.08 (ECHL 0.11) Another undrafted NCAA grad, he’s spent most of his short pro career in the SPHL (a feeder league into the ECHL) Zach Yoder, 27, DR, SPHL 0.13 (ECHL 0.50) The undrafted NCAAer spent his first (brief) pro season in the SPHL; he’s a local kid (to Georgia) and he’s big, for whatever that’s worth
Forwards Derek Nesbitt, 39-40, LW/RW, DNP (ECHL 0.89) An effective AHL producer (0.60) who has played in Atlanta five straight seasons prior to his year off; at 39 I’m not sure how much to expect from him, but I don’t think the BSens will call him up (he hasn’t had a call-up since his last full-time season in the AHL in 2013-14) Cody Sylvester, 29-30, C/LW, ECHL 0.81 (ECHL 0.80) Undrafted WHLer has spent most of his pro career in Germany (failing out of the DEL, so it’s mostly in tier-2); as a productive ECHL scorer there’s a small chance he could be called-up Kamerin Nault, 26, LW, ECHL 0.15 (ECHL 0.77) Canadian university grad is entering his fourth pro season; each year he’s received call-ups to the AHL, so that makes the odds of the same happening this season higher than most of the other players Michael Pelech, 32, CL, ECHL 0.55 (ECHL 0.75) Former 6th-round pick by LA, he’s had a very long and productive ECHL career; his last AHL call-up was in 2015-16 Luke Nogard, 27-28, CL, ECHL 0.39 (ECHL 0.56) Undrafted NCAA grad his entering his fourth pro season; he’s never received an AHL call-up Hugo Roy, 24, CR, ECHL 0.46 (ECHL 0.45) Undrafted QMJHLer is entering his third full pro season; as a middling producer he’s not likely on the BSens list of call-ups Matthew Wedman, 22, ECHL 0.24 (ECHL 0.24) A 7th-round pick by Florida in 2019, last season was his first as a pro and he was unable to translate his WHL production to that level Tommy Besinger, 27, CR, SPHL 0.68 (SPHL 0.69) The undrafted NCAA grad his entering his third year as a pro and will be looking to avoid the SPHL
I’ll reiterate, it’s unlikely we see many if any of these players, but stranger things have happened (due to injuries or other circumstances), particularly with older, failed prospects (cf).
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
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