This snapshot has the BSens at the 34-game mark (once again the schedule made a 10-game segment awkward to do & the post was delayed due to illness–they’ve since lost to Utica and Laval). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
The BSens winning percentage started to crawl forward (7th in their conference). In this set of games they went 6-3-0 (4-2-0 in the division). Special teams: PP 16.4% (+1.8), PK 78.3% (-0.4)–the horrible NHL PK is being replicated at the AHL-level; GF 25, GA 22, which in terms of per-game is 2.77 (-0.48) and 2.44 (-1.06); the BSens are the second lowest scoring team in their conference, but not by much.
Game by Game Cleveland 1-2 (Saulnier/Daoust still injured; Sebrango, Smejkal returned; Larsson NHL; Merilainen back to ECHL) Wilkes-Barre 1-5 (Crookshank/Smejkal to NHL) Toronto 4-3 (Heatherington to Spengler) Laval 4-1 (M. Boucher back to ECHL; Heatherington Spengler) Toronto 3-2 (no change) Manitoba 2-1 (Heatherington/Saulnier back) Manitoba 4-0 (Smejkal/Crookshank back; Fizer to ECHL; Lukosevicius released) Toronto 0-8 (Sogaard NHL; Merilainen recalled from the ECHL; Jarventie, McPhee injury) Toronto 6-2 (Imama suspended; McPhee returns)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The upswing for McPhee doesn’t mean very much, I’m simply noting it because it’s not something I thought he could do. As for Reinhardt, this isn’t concerning unless it continues, as historically he’s always had offensive droughts. Highmore is more troubling and I’m not clear what the issue is. It’s nice to see Sokolov rounding into form after a career worst start.
What Larsson is doing is unsustainable–he’s had a long pro career and putting up points has never been part of it. Thomson is suffering because he’s been pulled from the PP. Otherwise we’re simply seeing Guenette return to more expected production and that Sebrango hasn’t found a new gear to change his fate.
The song remains the same–Mandolese goes through hot and cold streaks while Merilainen slowly continues to grow. How much having Justin Peters promoted to the NHL impacts things remains uncertain.
This post is late–unfortunately I was ill last week so I didn’t get this out on time. In general, given the talent limitations of the club I think the performance is about as expected.
The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).
Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.
I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap: Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well. Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.
What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):
Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons) Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost) Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above] Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!) MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside
You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.
There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.
What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.
As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).
What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed: Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet) The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).
How about the unsigned? Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league) Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production
What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.
As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next): 2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th 2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th 2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.
Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.
eyeonthesens 