As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).
With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams: Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be
My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).
The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold): 1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment 2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues) 3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet 4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling 5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20) 6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each) 7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player 8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL 9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2) 10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge 11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point 12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers) 13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that 14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental 15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)
I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.
We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.
As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).
For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).
One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.
There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.
We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.
NHL 2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals 2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher 2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford 2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith 2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith 2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith 2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith AHL (Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East) 2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton) 2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst 2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann 2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round 2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell
In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).
Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.
Trades 2016-17 1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player. Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar 2017-18 Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado) Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton) 1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto) 2018-19 Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below) Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system) Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later) Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now 2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA) 2019-20 Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible) J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona) 2020-21 Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that) 2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe 2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona) 2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired 2021-22 Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why? Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it 2022-23 Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, ifChychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season? Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder
Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?
Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23) We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player: 1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher) 1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig) 2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie) 2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov) 3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen) 4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin) 5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic) 6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt) 7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)
I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.
Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).
What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.
FA Signings (Not comprehensive) Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season) Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik) Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)
Re-signed (Not comprehensive) Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28 Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)
I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.
Cap Hell
The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:
If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.
There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.
The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.
When the Sens traded for DeBrincat last summer I immediately compared it to Dorion’s 2017 trade for Matt Duchene–a disastrous decision that contributed to needing a rebuild in 2018. The reaction from the fanbase in both instances was virtually identical, although I think the feelings about Duchene himself remained more positive when he was moved. Before we get into today’s trade with Detroit, let’s briefly remind ourselves how that prior move went for Dorion (for the deep dive read the article above):
2017 To Ottawa: Matt Duchene To Nashville: Kyle Turris To Colorado: Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, 1st-2019 (1-4 Bowen Byram), 2019-3rd (Matthew Stienburg) 2018 To Ottawa: Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 1st-2019 (1-19 Lassi Thomson) To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
In retrospect Ottawa gave up Byram (and Stienburg) for less than two seasons of Duchene and prospect Thomson. I like Lassi, but I’d rather have Byram in my lineup. Let’s compare this to DeBrincat himself:
2022 To Ottawa: DeBrincat To Chicago: 1st-2022 (1-7 Kevin Korchinski), 2nd-2022 (Paul Ludwinski), 3rd-2024 2023 To Ottawa: Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, 1st-2024 (almost certain to be Boston’s), 4th-2024 To Detroit: DeBrincat
Because of the conditions attached to the 1st-round pick, it will likely be late (at best mid) and there’s no chance it’s in the top-10. Just like Duchene above, Dorion has converted a top-ten pick (the most successful part of the draft) into the crapshoot of later in the round for nothing (one meaningless season of DeBrincat). He lost a 2nd-round pick for nothing, and his 3rd has been turned into a 4th (almost certainly later than Ottawa’s own). There’s no question that in terms of future assets this is another enormous loss because everyone would rather have Bowen Byram and Kevin Korchinski on the Sens blueline rather than three meaningless seasons from Duchene and DeBrincat.
What about the tangible assets from the deal? What is being immediately injected into the Sens system?
Dominik Kubalik, LW, 6’2, DOB 95, 7-191/13 LA, 1yr/2.5 2021-22 Chi 78-15-17-32 2022-23 Det 81-20-25-45 He scored 30 goals in his rookie season with a talented Chicago team in 19-20, but his results the last two years are representative (receiving no boost from the NHL’s overall increase in scoring). If you were to slot his prior season in with Ottawa’s lineup he’s ahead of Shane Pinto and the idea has to be of him providing depth to the Sens otherwise anemic bottom-six (ahem, Mathieu Joseph). Kubalik was allowed to walk by the Blackhawks and Steve Yzerman has moved him after just one season–is that suggestive? Not necessarily, as Chicago was rebuilding and Detroit is retooling (and would rather have DeBrincat). He is, however, not locked in so the Sens can move him or walk away easily and it’s an excellent Cap hit for what he provides.
Donovan Sebrango, DL, 6’1, DOB 02, 3-63/20 Det, ELC/2yrs 2021-22 AHL 66-1-6-7 2022-23 AHL 39-4-3-7 This is an asset Yzerman wanted to be rid of (he spent about half of last season demoted to the ECHL–very much a Zach Senyshyn situation), so he’s part of the price the Sens have to pay to get rid of DeBrincat. He has two years left on his contract (including the upcoming one) and I suspect Dorion will look for a way to package him elsewhere before he finishes that out.
Let’s briefly assess and then summarize: Positives: the DeBrincat situation has been resolved before the start of the season; Kubalik is a useful NHL player and arrives with a good contract; the Sens regained some of the draft equity they squandered; they have cap space to find a free agent and lock-up players like Pinto, Sanderson, etc Negatives: Dorion (again!) overpaid for an asset he didn’t need so (again) failed to recoup the investment; just like with the Duchene trade above, there’s a good chance the entire fiasco ends with a modest asset like Lassi Thomson that is a pale shadow to what was given up in the first place; I don’t trust Dorion not to go overpay a free agent just to make a splash–I didn’t want five years for Korpisalo (or three years of Anton Forsberg for that matter) and I don’t want five years of an aging Tarasenko either (ask a stacked Rangers team how much he helped them). [The Detroit perspective doesn’t think much of the deal]
We can’t give the final assessment on the DeBrincat odyssey like we did with Duchene, but as it stands Dorion gave up: Kevin Korchinski (and Paul Ludwinski) for one season of DeBrincat in return for (possibly) one season of Kubalik and a late 1st-rounder. If that’s your return on investment, it’s time to get a new investor. Dorion rightfully received praise for some of the contracts he signed last summer (although lot’s not forget the hell he’s created for himself in that realm before, ala Colin White), but his ability to assess his team–where they are at, what they need–is hilariously and disastrously awful. Do we want to re-visit the Matt Murray trade? GMs are sometimes the victims of bad luck, but that’s not the case here. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Dorion needs to go before he permanently damages the rebuild.
Historically Dorion has not done well with late picks, but has better than average results in the 4th. As one would expect, across the league the 7th-round is a crapshoot (about 1 NHL player per draft) and the fifth is not much better (with 2). All this is to say it would not surprise me if this draft echoes Ottawa’s disastrous 2014 effort where none of the prospects panned out. Here are the picks:
Hoyt Stanley (4-108), DR, DOB 05, 6’3 BCHL 53-4-34-38 1st Slated to attend Cornell, there’s no rush for Stanley (or any of the other prospects). The Sens have a miserable track record from the BCHL (Tychonick and Loheit from ’18 come to mind, although after that only ’22’s Dyck has been picked from there), but even a stopped clock is right twice a day, so fans can hope (the ‘success’ is Derek Grant in ’08). The Sens say he’s a good, skilled defenseman.
Matthew Andonovski (5-140), DL, DOB 05, 6’2 OHL 67-0-16-16 6th He’s big, can skate, but with limited offensive tools. Does that sound familiar? It should, as that’s the exact same MO as past OHL-pick Ben Roger (2021 draft); those offensive skills never did develop for Roger and that’s what I’d expect here. The desire for a bruising blueliner goes back to the beginning for Dorion and the only thing that’s changed is skating has been added to the mix–the thing is, if you can’t make a pass, that’s not enough for the current NHL. The org’s take on him (link above) is that they like his hockey smarts.
Owen Beckner (7-204), CL, DOB 05, 6’2 BCHL 53-17-33-50 t-1st Committed to Colorado College, he’s another player who can marinate in the NCAA for awhile. I referenced Ottawa’s bad luck with the BCHL, so keep that in mind (Grant remains the exception). The Sens rambling (link above) explanation is that they like his penalty killing and he’s competitive.
Vladimir Nikitin (7-207), GL, DOB 05, 6’4 (pick via the Gudbranson trade) Kazahkstan .921 The Sens are always intrigued by tournament success, which is what made the ‘tender stand out (no scout made the trek to watch the Kazahkstan league); that performance plus being signed by BCHL’s Chilliwack has landed us the prospect. There’s no rush for him, as he’ll presumably move on to the NCAA if he does well. The seventh-round is the place to take chances, so I’m perfectly fine with the shot in the dark. The Sens said they like the package and the path he’s on (link above).
Nicholas VanTassell (7-215), RW, DOB 04, 6’4 (pick via the Motte trade) USHL 62-19-18-37 6th Overager is committed to U-Mass; his unimpressive USHL numbers are worrying, so while he’ll have plenty of time to develop I’d set my expectations low as it’s not clear to me what exactly the org is hoping for with him. The Sens said he’s big (link above). Size. Big. Did I mention he’s big? Bigly. Big.
In terms of what happened to their traded picks in the draft: 1-12 (Ari) Danill But (Chychrun trade) 2-44 (Chi) Roman Kantserov (Zaitsev trade) 3-76 (Stl) Juraj Pekarcik (via Tor via the Murray trade) 6-172 (Phi) Ryan MacPherson (via P. Brown trade)
Signings
Re-signing Jacob Larsson (who they did not qualify as an RFA) is a classic Dorion move. What’s the left side in Belleville like? We have big, lumbering Dillon Heatherington signed, so why not retain another big, lumbering player to join him? How did that work last season? It didn’t, so let’s try it again. I think the rationale is less about the BSens than having spare parts for the NHL, but still, not an inspiring choice.
Re-signing JBD was inevitable–I think he’s massively overrated (he’s an adequate if underwhelming AHL defenseman), but his contract is cheap enough (2yrs/805k) that he’s moveable. What I expect we’ll see in the upcoming season is, as his limitations are exposed, the fanbase will turn on him (mid to late season), but right now we’ll just see positives about it.
Brannstrom‘s one year deal (2m) seems like the prelude to a trade–no long term commitment and affordable. I think Dorion lost interest in him a long time ago, but tried very hard to pump his tires at the end of the season to bait other GMs to want him.
Development Camp
The Sens Development Camp is here and it’s always fun to look at the invitees (keeping in mind it’s a virtual lock that none will become even part of the BSens roster): Goalies Riley Mercer, DOB 04, QMJHL, .902 Backup behind the undrafted Jacob Goobie (who had an awful year) Charlie Schenkel, DOB 04, OHL, .894 6’6 local guy; backup to the undrafted Samuel Ivanov (who had an awful year) Defensemen Drew Bavaro (R), DOB 00, NCAA, 37-6-13-19 Second in scoring behind Colorado pick Nick Leivermann (7-187/17) Caeden Carlisle (L), DOB 04, OHL, 59-5-13-18 Third in scoring; leader and Vancouver pick Kirill Kudryavtsev (7-208/22) had almost three times as many points; no relation to former BSen Chris Alexis Daviault (L), DOB 05, OHL, 71-4-18-22 Undersized (5’11) local boy a distant third in scoring Roberto Mancini (L), DOB 03, OHL 66-13-12-25 Local boy was a distant fourth in scoring Bronson Ride (L), DOB 05, OHL 71-4-12-16 6’6 was a distant fifth in scoring Djibril Toure (R), DOB 03, OHL 57-5-11-16 6’7 switched from junior-B to the OHL this past season; seventh in scoring Forwards Daniil Bourash (RW), DOB 04, QMJHL 66-41-29-70 Belarussian was second in scoring behind the undrafted Tristan Allard (who has signed with Syracuse in the AHL) Cole Burbidge (CL), DOB 05, QMJHL 68-19-31-50 Finished a distant second to the undrafted Brady Burns Connor Clattenburg (LW), DOB 05, OHL 56-2-8-10 Local boy who lead his team in PIMs; teammate of Carlisle above Tarun Fizer (CR), DOB 01, ECHL 62-27-23-50 The former WHLer is an oddity, as you don’t see minor pro players in camps like this very often; he was second in scoring behind the undrafted Cameron Wright Mitchell Martin (LW), DOB 03, OHL 47-13-21-34 Big winger finished eighth in scoring Stuart Rolofs (LW), DOB 03, OHL 62-32-29-61 Local boy finished second in scoring behind the undrafted Ryan Gagnier Tyler Savard (LW), DOB 03, OHL 56-17-30-47 Seventh in scoring on a stacked team Ty Thorpe (CR), DOB 02, WHL 65-37-34-71 Lead his team in scoring and played a few games in the ECHL; teammate of first-round pick Samuel Honzek (1-16/23 Cgy) Ethan Whitcomb (LW), DOB 04, USHL 53-24-24-48 Second in scoring on a rebuilding roster (top scorer and Buffalo pick (6-170/22) Jake Richard was traded mid-season)
The Curtis Lazar effect
It’s difficult to imagine a less impressive first-round ‘success’ than Lazar (1-17/13; 453-38-57-95), but the guy must interview well or have a fabulous agent because he keeps getting contracts. I wanted to illustrate that not only is he meaningless statistically, but that he drags down every team he plays for (a bad luck charm, if you will). Let’s look at his season-by-season dance card:
14-15 Ott – wild card loses 2-4 to Mtl 15-16 Ott – missed playoffs 16-17 Cgy (2nd (Alex Formenton) trade; GM Treliving) – wild card loses 0-4 to Ana 17-18 Cgy – missed playoffs 18-19 Cgy – western champs lose 1-4 to Col (spent the year in the minors) 19-20 Buf – missed playoffs 20-21 Bos (Taylor Hall trade; GM Sweeney) – 3rd seed loses in 2nd round 2-4 to lower seed NYI 21-22 Bos – wild card loses 3-4 to Car 22-23 NJ (pick trade; GM Fitzgerald) – 2nd seed loses in 2nd round 1-4 to Car
Inexplicably he’s made the playoffs six times ((30-2-1-3; three by trade), where he’s often a healthy scratch; he cannot help lower seeded teams win and drags down higher seeds–for the love of god stop signing him! Calgary had it right when they buried him in the minors (18-19).
My belief, expressed back in April, that the local rumours about moving DeBrincat ultimately originated from within the org, seem justified as Pierre Dorion has finally made public his desire to move the player. This dovetails into what I said when he was acquired back in the summer, which was that there was a good chance the deal would ultimately fail. Dorion has already admitted he has no hope of getting back the value he gave up for the player (a top-ten pick, an early 2nd, and a 3rd next draft), hoping for something like a 2nd or 3rd round pick. So, as I’ve asked repeatedly since he was acquired, what was the point of trading for him? One year of DeBrincat for what (moving from 26th to 20th overall)? Dorion tends to get a free pass and this has been helped this time by drip feeding this eventuality for the last two months. As I said last summer, his acquisition echoes that of Matt Duchene and with similar results (I’m not sure how many people realize Dorion has surrendered the 4th and 7th overall picks for players who didn’t get the team into the playoffs and who spent less than two seasons with the org). This is one of the reasons why I don’t trust Dorion and I’m hopeful his days as GM are numbered.
Dorion also talked about how the team has dealt with their RFAs: Qualified: Brannstrom, Pinto, Sokolov, Bernard-Docker, and Mandolese Not qualified: Gauthier, Gambrell, Lodin, Ferguson, Larsson, and Aspirot
Those not qualified all had arbitration rights and in theory could be brought back as FAs (I don’t know that any are worth bringing back, but keep that in mind–if I was going to guess there’s a chance someone like Aspirot could return on an AHL-deal). Among those qualified, only Brannstrom has arbitration rights, but I’d expect him to be signed and/or moved long before that. The only surprise for me was retaining Mandolese (cf), although that may be as an extra piece to move or as depth going forward.
It’s funny, but not long after saying the Sens didn’t need to add anymore skill, Mendes says that the team needs one or two top-six forwards. I can’t even pretend to understand what’s changed for him between June 9th to June 26th, but it echoes a similar about face from Marc Method on Zub’s contract (that change took about four months).
As I did almost a year ago, I thought I’d take a look at the Sens prospects currently not in the NHL or AHL. I like to sort players by age, as I think that’s a better way of comparing where they are in their development curve (keeping in mind goaltenders almost always take longer–a couple of Sens examples: Ben Bishop and Brian Elliott were both 26 when they reached their peak). I also want to point out that good defensive players at the NHL-level are typically productive in junior, so in those cases we need to see some sign of being able to move the puck as prospects.
Novak went unsigned after his nominal final NCAA season, so he returned for one more to try to increase the odds of being signed. Instead he’s had worse production and won’t be in the org’s plans. The only comparison for him is another Sens pick (pre-Mann), Todd Burgess (2016), who travelled the exact same path (I suspect picked by the same scout). Burgess was never signed and spent his rookie pro season playing with Manitoba in the AHL (35-7-6-13), but this year hasn’t been able to get out of the ECHL (30-10-11-21). The two players have very similar NCAA production (0.56 vs. 0.49), with both spending an extra year in college. The Sens haven’t drafted out of that league (NAHL) since.
The 2018 one-two punch with JBD, he’s in his fifth NCAA season and the purported offensive defensemen’s production has finally appeared. Is this enough for the org to sign him? I’m doubtful, with at least Kleven, Hamara, and Donovan ahead of him (along with the org’s preference for defensive blueliners). A PTO is highly plausible if he can’t find another place to land in, as the Sens have done that with quite a few unsigned prospects in the past (Kelly Summers comes to mind in 2018).
Drafted as a pest/defensive player whose production was abysmal until his senior year, I don’t think this season is enough to justify a contract from the Sens (I’m fine with drafting agitating players, but I want Crookshank-levels of production).
There’s plenty of hype from the org around him so he’ll be signed sooner than later. How good is he? That’s up in the air–the Sens often get blinded by size, so we’ll have to wait and see if he can fulfill their plans for him.
The Sens took a flyer on an older offensive player they can leave in college to marinate; his rookie season in Ohio has been impressive (he leads the team in scoring). As my regular readers know, I’m always onboard with risks based on skill. As for when he’ll appear that’s largely up to Ottawa, but there’s certainly room for him within the AHL-forward group.
An off-the-wall pick from Finland, he had a middling season in the OHL, but has been good back in Finland. The Sens amateur scouting for goaltenders has been pretty good–not great, perhaps, but they do find players who can play pro hockey (at least at the AHL-level).
Ben Roger, DR, Nov 02 (20-21), 6’4, 2-49/21 2020-21 did not play 2021-22 OHL 55-1-12-13 0.23 2022-23 OHL 45-2-10-12 0.26
When drafted the mystery was: Can he be more than a big body? The answer so far is: No. It’s always hard to predict what the Sens will do with a big blueliner, but he looks like a pass to me (keep in mind this is the org who signed people like Ben Blood and Michael Sdao, so sometimes size is enough).
Son of former NHL goalie Brian, it still boggles my mind that the Sens used a top-ten pick to draft a fourth-line checker (cf). I can already picture the laundry list of better players he was picked ahead of manifesting over the next few years. To my mind it’s up in the air if he can be a full-time NHLer (perhaps it’s as a Curtis Lazar-type, where he floats around the league soaking up 9-10 minutes a game–good enough to keep getting signed, but not good enough to keep).
When drafted his claim to fame was being fast; the unanswered question was can he be anything else? He was having a career season with Prince Albert (31-10-18-28), but his numbers have dropped since he was traded to Winnipeg (22-4-8-12).
It’s good to see his numbers up and another stint at the WJC, but for me his NHL-potential remains a bit of a mystery. My gut suggests a depth forward, but we’ll need to see him in the AHL before we can make that call.
Chandler Romeo, DL, Jul 03 (19-20), 6’5, 7-202/21 2020-21 did not play 2021-22 OHL 67-2-16-18 0.26 2022-23 OHL 47-7-7-14 0.30
Normally I’d complain about picking a player purely on size, but the seventh round is the place to swing for the fences–will Romeo pan out? Probably not.
An excellent skater who isn’t ready for prime time in the Allsvenskan/SHL. Nothing to worry about, unless these numbers are repeated next season.
Theo Wallberg, DL, Dec 03 (19-20), 6’4, 6-168/22 2021-22 J20 46-2-21-23 0.50 2022-23 USHL 45-4-11-15 0.33
The second (and older) of two big blueliners drafted out of Europe last year. I’d call his performance unimpressive given he’s in a fairly weak junior league, although to be fair it’s a big change for him and there’s runway left for improvement.
Via the Winnipeg pick they got in the Zach Sanford trade. His two older brothers played in the NCAA, but were never drafted. His USHL numbers are underwhelming (I’m assuming the org grabbed him for his offensive talents), but they can play the long game with him as he’s on his way to UMass.
Oskar Pettersson, RW, Feb 04 (19), 6’2, 3-72/22 2021-22 J20 46-25-11-36 0.78 2022-23 SHL 29-1-1-2 0.06
His J20 numbers (21-18-10-28) show improvement and I’d call his initial season as a prospect a success. Like most of the 2022 draft class, he’s a long-term prospect and we’ll have a better sense of him in a couple of years.
Via the Islanders pick they got in the Brayden Coburn trade. A great final season in the BCHL got him drafted and his rookie year at UMass is perfectly fine–plenty of time to see how things pan out (although, broadly speaking, the Sens have not had much luck drafting out of the BCHL).
Filip Nordberg, DL, Mar 04 (19), 6’4, 2-64/22 2021-22 J20 42-6-21-27 0.64 2022-23 Allsven 25-2-2-4 0.16
Via the Tampa Bay pick they got in the Marian Gaborik trade. With no first-round pick in the draft the big Swede showed up Andreas Englund-style–let’s hope he’s not a carbon copy. Bigger blueliners tend to take a little longer and his Allsvenskan numbers are adequate.
Tomas Hamara, DL, Mar 04 (19), 6’0, 3-87/22 (signed) 2021-22 Liiga 24-0-2-2 0.08 2022-23 OHL 47-2-13-15 0.32
Via the Boston pick they got in the Mike Reilly trade. The son of marginal Czech pro player Tomas (who had more success as a coach), the Sens were in a rush to sign him, but he’s having a disappointing season as an offensively talented blueliner. I suspect he’ll be loaned to Europe next year to give him more time.
Joins the ‘son of’ cadre in the organization. Unlike Hamara above, he did have an explosive season following his draft year and that makes signing him early a better decision (although it’s not impactful enough to start to make predictions).
Via the Boston pick they got in the Josh Brown trade. The youngest player picked in 2022, the huge goaltender was undoubtedly picked with Mads Sogaard in mind, but it’s far too early to say whether he’ll have that kind of success. I suspect the Sens will want him to cross the pond to play junior hockey next season (as they did with Merilainen).
Summary
At the end of my article last year I made assessments over what kind of player each could be. I’m a bit more cautious in doing that now, but I will offer up who I think has improved their stock and who has not (with what they are about in brackets).
Stock Declining Novak (offense) Roger (big, fast, no hands) Romeo (big) Wallberg (big/skating) O’Neill (plays hard/offense) Hamara (well-rounded)
The list simply represents performance, not what I think the org will do. For instance, I don’t think Tychonik‘s career year makes much difference, just as Hamara‘s underwhelming junior season doesn’t either. What the Sens desperately need is more puckmoving talent on the blueline and more skill upfront (both elements are in relative short supply above). I know some fans might think the top-six is set so why worry about skill, but players get hurt, players decline, cap crunch can come–you always want more talent no matter what your situation is. There would be less resistance, I think, from the fanbase about the blueline, where the NHL group is one injury away from serious weakness. What’s most clear from this list is how high the Sens value physicality and hard work–outside top picks, that seems to matter more than anything else.
This is a topic I don’t think anyone else will take a stab at, so I figured I’d dig into the numbers and consider what assets Ottawa has truly parted with. There are two categories of concern: what’s the value of the picks abstractly (as in, over all, statistically), and what’s the value these assets for Pierre Dorion (as in, during his career, what success has he had with assets like these). First, let’s remind ourselves what’s been surrendered (and to whom and for what; I realize there are conditions attached to some of these & I’m taking the most likely result as a given):
Draft Picks 2023 1st (Arizona – Jakob Chychrun) 2nd (Chicago – getting rid of Nikita Zaitsev) 6th (Philadelphia – Patrick Brown) 2024 2nd (Washington’s pick; Arizona – Jakob Chychrun) 2026 2nd (Arizona – Jakob Chychrun) 4th (Chicago – getting rid of Nikita Zaitsev)
For those who need a refresher on Dorion, he was an amateur scout for Montreal from 94-95 to 04-05 (under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather), then Director of Amateur Scouting with Ottawa from 07-08 to 08-09, Director of Player Personal from 09-10 to 13-14, Assistant GM from mid-season 13-14 to 15-16 (all under Bryan Murray), and GM from 2016-17 onward. Dorian has contributed to drafting for decades, but in terms of having major impute or being responsible that only begins with Ottawa in the 07-08 draft, so that’s what we’ll look at (Tim Murray left mid 2013-14).
Dorion’s Success Rate There’s a difference in early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf); we also can’t judge some of the prospects (particularly those taken from 2018+), and those undetermined are the third number (I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts, as it’s still too early to judge). I’ve highlighted the percentage excluding unknowns: 1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher) 1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Matt Puempel, Stefan Noesen, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig) 2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie) 2nd (eleven+): 2-3-4 40% (Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik; Jonny Tychonick, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov) 3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen) 4th: 5-7-3 41% (Andre Petersson, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess; Ben Harpur, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin) 5th: 2-7-2 22% (Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic) 6th: 1-9-2 10% (Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt) 7th: 1-10-2 9% (Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)
Personally I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played I have to bow to usage; I also think Curtis Lazar is a terrible 1st-round pick and at best a marginal NHL-player, but again, 400+ games I have to bow to the numbers.
That aside, there are some things to note about Dorion’s rein: his second and fourth-round picks have a higher rate of success than normal (the fourth round in particular); his early firsts are statistically below average, but I think that’s trivial until he gets another one wrong (otherwise he’s essentially average). I have to point out that since Tim Murray left (13-14), Dorion has just one success outside the second round (Drake Batherson); every other pick from the 3rd and beyond has failed or remains uncertain, which through the 7 drafts we’re looking at is neigh on catastrophic. What this inability to find players in later rounds indicates is that his scouting staff, at least through the end of Bryan Murray’s term as GM and Dorion’s first, were not up to the task. In my opinion, there are current players beyond the 2nd-round threshold who might contribute (and I don’t just mean the team’s faith in Mark Kastelic), but what we can’t definitively state is that there’s any track record for that happening under Dorion’s regime.
What this means is that, for Dorion, surrendering late picks has virtually no opportunity cost, because he can’t make use of them. That doesn’t mean other teams won’t find value for the picks, but at the team-level the risk is far less than that from a team known to find diamonds in the rough (this also means sending Ottawa late picks is a safe bet). So let’s revisit the list from above and look at the cost for Ottawa vs the opportunity it presents to other teams (we’ll be generous and include the period during which Tim Murray did have some success in later rounds):
Draft Picks These are split between Dorion cost/generic opportunity cost, using the numbers above as guidelines Ottawa is projected to miss the playoffs, so let’s say The Athletic was close when at the start of the season they said they would finish with 88-points (to do so now they’d go 10-10 in their last 20 games, but let’s give them a 12-8 record–a .600 winning percentage–to have 94 and finish just out of the playoffs). Last year 94 points meant finishing 17th overall.
One of the odd things about this is Dorion vs the averages in all of these moves (excluding the 6th) hurts him more than it helps the other team (at least statistically), but we can’t look at these things abstractly. I’d rather have Chychrun than what could be another Lazar (ahem, Boucher) and Formenton (or Puempel/Chlapik). I actually do like Formenton as a player, but he’s not as important as Chychrun (someone you’d normally have to draft). While I also don’t like trading for Brown (the Sens fetish for sons of former NHLers is a bit obsessive), but it appears Dorion can’t make 6th-round picks valuable, so a few weeks of his presence on the roster probably is better than a prospect who fails out in 3-5 years. What I do criticize is how much getting Zaitsev‘s money off the books cost Dorion. Oddly, 4th-round picks have been unusually kind to him, not to mention the 2nd-rounder. Karma being what it is, I suspect Chicago will do very well with at least one of those assets and I think Dorion bungled the entire Zaitsev odyssey.
Overall I’m still happy with the team–I’m concerned about their prospect cupboard, but given that most of the key assets are locked-up and so far none of them are showing signs of crashing and burning, let’s hope the late round drafting improves.
The big news from the draft for the Sens was bundling picks for Chicago winger Alex DeBrincat— understandably the fanbase is skweeeing about it (here’s a typical example). I’m not here simply to offer a negative take, but I do think there’s important context and deeper analysis to perform (for instance, the aforementioned post includes this incorrect assumption: “It’s very unlikely any of the three picks they gave up will turn into anyone as good as [him]“). We’ll explore why that conviction is far from clear below.
The first thing that came to my mind when I heard about the trade was, assuming team finances are unchanged, that the 24-year old is a rental, albeit of the two-year variety. Debrincat is a fantastic comparison to another big move from the Pierre Dorion, namely trading for Matt Duchene in 2017 (Nichols almost hits upon this, but not quite). At the time, just like now, Dorion thought he was on the cusp of playoff success, so let’s go back to the halcyon days of 2017, look at that trade, and see how it compares.
This was a threeway trade between Ottawa, Nashville, and Colorado (which the Avalanche won going away); that aside, we’ll concern ourselves only with the elements that apply to Ottawa. Sens gave up (1 player, 3 assets): Kyle Turris (Nsh) – 172-29-67-96 (0.55) over three seasons, which was below his Ottawa average (0.67); the Sens wisely got out of the Turris-business before his play collapsed and they avoided paying him the absurd salary Nashville handed out–moving him at this time was a good idea Andrew Hammond (Col) – The Sens ill-advisedly rewarded him with a one-way contract and dumping him became necessary (Anderson-Condon was the tandem that season); the Avalanche buried him in the minors and let him walk at the end of the season Shane Bowers (Col) – A first-round pick (!) that I thought was terrible at the time and, as Colorado discovered, I was not wrong (his AHL numbers with them: 117-23-22-45 0.38); the Sens picking him was a waste (a Mann pick, incidentally), but knowing to get rid of him was the correct move 2019 1st-round pick (Bowen Byram, Col) – Dorion dumped the first-round pick thinking he was managing a playoff team–instead the Avalanche got a lottery pick the Sens needed; Byram has won a Cup already (his NHL numbers through parts of two seasons: 49-5-17-19 0.38) 2019 3rd-round pick (Matthew Stienburg, Col) – The third-rounder is still plying his trade in the NCAA and doing well, but whether he’ll pan out is up in the air (it’s statistically unlikely) Sens acquired (1 player): Matt Duchene – 118-50-57-107 (0.90) over parts of two seasons as the Sens bottomed out to become one of the worst teams in the NHL; he was flipped to Columbus (a trade we’ll get into below); Duchene played very well, producing above his career average (0.76), but that production was wasted because Dorion misunderstood how good his roster was
What you can say about this trade is that, in terms of the established assets, Dorion did well (moving on from Turris, Bowers, and Hammond, and getting in on Duchene at peak performance). What Dorion failed at was assessing his own team and thus surrendering an asset he’d dearly love to have back. Dorion also struggled when forced to move Duchene, so let’s briefly look at that. Sens gave up (2 players): Matt Duchene – Finished out the season with the Blue Jackets (23-4-8-12), but walked and signed with Nashville afterwards (so he was a pure rental) Julius Bergman – Previously acquired in the Mike Hoffman deal, the Sens jettisoned him after just part of one-season in the AHL (he finished out the year and then went back to Europe) Sens acquired (3 players): Vitaly Abramov – The prospect received a lot of fanfare, but suited up for just 5 NHL games over three seasons before returning to Russia Jonathan Davidsson – A signing Columbus clearly regretted, the Sens brought him over for one season where he accomplished nothing in the AHL (30-2-3-5) and returned to Europe 2019 1st-round pick (Lassi Thomson) – Is on the right trajectory, although it’s too early to say if he’ll become an important NHL regular or not
Dorion again made the correct decision to dump Duchene when he did (as well as moving an asset he didn’t want in Bergman), and Davidsson was simply part of the price to be paid for the trade, but the team failed hard in gauging Abramov’s potential. Given that Columbus retained none of the assets in what was a playoff-push trade, the Sens win the exchange if Thomson turns into even a marginal NHL-regular, however, big picture we’d all rather have Byram than Thomson, which means Dorion loses the entire Duchene cycle–not just because of the final assets, but because Duchene’s time with Ottawa was wasted. His performance, while good individually, did nothing for the team.
With that lengthy preamble aside, let’s see what Dorion has learned. The pint-sized Debrincat (368-160-147-307 0.83) was a 2nd-rounder in 2016 who has flourished with the largely non-competitive Hawks since he debuted. He’s young, hasn’t had notable injury concerns, is signed and an RFA for the following season–he’s expensive, but in theory there’s two seasons for the budget-conscious Sens to get out of him. What did they give up? 2022 1st-round pick (Kevin Korchinski) 2022 2nd-round pick (Paul Ludwinski) 2024 3rd-round pick
A top-ten pick is nothing to sneeze at and the 2nd is very early, meaning the odds of Ludwinski also turning out are (relatively) high–the 3rd-round pick is much more of a crapshoot. Let’s take a look at players picked in those positions over 2012-20 (those in italics either failed or were marginal players; those undetermined have their current league/circumstance noted): 7th overall: Matt Dumba, Darnell Nurse, Haydn Fleury, Ivan Provorov, Clayton Keller, Lias Andersson, Quinn Hughes, Dylan Cozens 39th overall: Lukas Sutter, Laurent Dauphin, Vitek Vanecek, A. J. Greer, Alex Debrincat, Jason Robertson, Olof Lindbom, Jackson LaCombe (NCAA)
I appreciate the irony of Debrincat being a 39th pick. That aside, 75% of the time the 7th-pick has become a significant asset; on the other side, two cases remain undecided (Vanecek and LaCombe), so of what’s left it’s 33% (which is still quite high). Let’s also keep in mind that the best later pick was made by Chicago, the team Dorion just traded with. In the long term, it’s unlikely the Sens win this trade (to do so Chicago needs to fail), so this trade isn’t for the long term.
With Debrincat, just like Duchene five years ago, this deal requires the Sens to win now. We understood that urgency when Melnyk was in charge, but he’s no longer with us, so where is the pressure coming from? My theory is Dorion knows he’s on very thin ice–this could be his last year as GM and, if that’s the case, he wants to go for broke. Are the 2022-23 Senators better than the 2017-18 Senators? It’s easy to say yes in hindsight, but the latter were coming off almost making the Stanley Cup finals, so I don’t think it’s that simple. Let’s briefly compare the two (I’m going to note the season they had prior and then the current season; bold is improved, italics is not):
Top-six forwards Mark Stone (1.06/1.05) Mike Hoffman (0.82/0.68) Matt Duchene (0.53/0.72) Ryan Dzingel (0.39/0.52) Derick Brassard (0.48/0.65) Bobby Ryan (0.40/0.53) Top-four blueline Erik Karlsson (0.92/0.87) Thomas Chabot (junior/0.39) Cody Ceci (0.21/0.23) Dion Phaneuf (0.37/0.30) Starting ‘tender Craig Anderson (.923/.898) Significant Roster Losses Marc Methot
The Sens were slightly better offensively in the 17-18 season, but their goaltending collapsed and that had hidden deficiencies on defense. Dorion’s inability to read the tea leaves in terms of the blueline and goaltending sent the team crashing down into its lengthy rebuild.
Top-six forwards Alex Debrincat (0.95) Brady Tkachuk (0.84) Tim Stutzle (0.73) Josh Norris (0.83) Drake Batherson (0.95) Shane Pinto (injured) Top-four blueline Thomas Chabot (0.64) Artyom Zub (0.27) Jake Sanderson (NCAA) Erik Brannstrom (0.26)-Lassi Thomson (AHL) Starting ‘tender Anders Forsberg (.917) Significant Roster Losses None
The Sens suffered a ton of key injuries this past season and are leaning heavily on younger players. There’s no depth to replace key losses, such that it’s impossible for success if there are any significant health issues (this also applies to individual regression or struggles). Goaltending, just like in 17-18, is a huge question mark, as Forsberg is a career backup and there’s only uncertainty behind him.
We also can’t help but repeat what Nichols and others have found by digging through the numbers: how much playing with Patrick Kane has helped boost Debrincat‘s numbers–and it does no good to say, well, if he’s not as advertised, the Sens aren’t committed, because they’ve already surrendered significant assets to get him that can’t be replaced. Debrincat must work out or this trade is a disaster.
Also, as others have pointed out, Debrincat helps the team in the way it needs least: on offense. While it’s safe to say the top-six without him is hardly dominant, scoring wasn’t the primary issue for the team this past season. Not only that, but by surrendering two top-40 picks, the Sens are delaying the addition of new top talent in net or on the blueline. Do I think Jake Sanderson will be a good NHL player? I do, but how long is he going to be playing with Chabot and Zub? It’s also unclear if the Sens have a proper #4 to complete the picture (along with zero capacity to make-up for injuries on the blueline). The net is a mess and clearly Dorion is praying for the continued evolution of Mads Sogaard, but he’s only 21 (shades of Murray waiting for Robin Lehner or Dorion relying on Marcus Hogberg). The echoes to 2017 and the Duchene trade are ringing louder and louder.
At the end of the day, I hope the Debrincat addition is all people hope it will be (I do love offense, lest we forget), but Pierre Dorion has a magical talent for losing trades, so I’m going to remain cautious until we’re well into the coming season.
Let me begin by making it clear what prospects I’m looking at: those not already in the system (so not already in Ottawa or Belleville). I make this distinction because I think the data available for the latter is so different that they occupy different categories of analysis. It’s also important to recognize that most of these players will never be significant NHLers, but that doesn’t mean we can’t have fun looking and assessing. Speaking of which, I do not have access to the minute data that scouts do (or those willing to pay for it, ala Ary etc), nor have I seen most of these players play this season, so I’m purely analyzing from pre-existing scouting reports and statistical comparisons (both immediate and in relative terms).
I like to divide players by age, since that makes comparing where they are in the development curve easier (keeping in mind goaltenders almost always take longer to pan out), so the players below are in order of oldest to youngest. I’m going to link my thoughts on the players when they were drafted (and you can see where I was right or wrong interpreting scouting data). For the most current season I’ve included (in brackets) how they performed on their team in relative scoring (forwards vs forwards and defensemen vs defensemen).
Novak switched from Bentley to Northeastern in his final season and saw his steady increase of progression halt as he played behind other drafted players. Because of the league he was drafted from, there was precious little scouting information about him when drafted, but he compares to another Sens pick (pre-Mann) Todd Burgess (2016), who came from the same league. Burgess was never signed and spent most of this season playing with Manitoba in the AHL (35-7-6-13). The two players aren’t clones, as offensively Novak has better career NCAA numbers (0.63 vs. 0.49), Burgess spent an extra year in college, and so on. Will/should the Sens sign Novak? It’s hard to say–looking at the stats isn’t enough given his change in schools and it’s less clear to me what role the Sens envision for him–his size is in his favour. As a fan I’d like to see him perform better than sixth on his team in scoring, but that’s not the be-all, end-all for all prospects.
Son of long time Swedish defenseman Hans, Lodin was an off-the-board pick I couldn’t find much information on at the time. What little I could find made me think he was yet another grinder, but that impression was false (such that my reaction, link above, was off). At least at the minor pro level, Lodin is a point producer. The Sens signed him after the 20-21 season, but loaned him to Timra and that seems to have been beneficial to him. His minor pro sample size is small (ten games), but it seems like he can play at that level. Can he be an NHL regular? I think that’s up in the air and I suspect he has to make space for himself in the bottom six and be a specialist like an Erik Condra or Peter Schaefer (which is to say, provide some offensive punch in a depth role).
The offensive defensemen the Sens picked in the 2018 draft has not been able to maintain that production at the college level (you’d like to see is an arc that steadily increases). The org is unlikely to leave a high pick unsigned, but the expectations of what kind of pro he’ll be has to have changed and Tychonick will need to be a good defender to carry forward his pro career (if we’re looking for an Ottawa prospect comparable it would be a borderline player like Max Lajoie–similar size and okay but not great offensive numbers).
Eric Engstrand, LW, May 00, 6’4, 5-155/20 2019-20 SuperElit 37-23-35-58 1.56 2020-21 SHL 45-1-4-5 0.11 2021-22 SHL 41-7-3-10 0.24 (12th)
Already re-signed by Malmo for the next two seasons, Engstrand won’t be in an arena near you any time soon. An overage pick in the mold of a Filip Ahl (2015) and Markus Nurmi (2016)–a big, physical European winger–he’s the second youngest on the roster and his progression is in the right direction. I believe the way it works with Swedish draft picks is you have 4-years to sign them, so the org can be patient and watch how his play evolves. Incidentally, speaking of Nurmi, I think there’s a chance he could make it as a depth NHLer (albeit the Sens no longer have his rights), perhaps ala Marcus Sorensen who the Sens never signed but spent five years with San Jose.
Always intended to be a long term college prospect, I think my analysis at the time he was drafted is spot on. He has one more NCAA season to show his mettle, but at this point it’s difficult to imagine anything will change. This is a player who can only become a pro through great defensive play and/or being an agitator, but from what we can see the skillset just isn’t high enough for that to ever happen.
Philippe Daoust, C/LW, Nov 01, 6’0, 6-158/20 (signed) 2019-20 QMJHL 58-7-22-29 0.50 2020-21 QMJHL 21-6-22-28 1.33 2021-22 QMJHL 38-24-23-47 1.23 (3rd via ppg)
I like gambling on skill and while Daoust isn’t going to be a world beater, he was able to put in some time in Belleville (15-games) and has solid QMJHL numbers. What’s his ceiling? Probably not high, but he should help the BSens and could be a top-nine player (the hope for a pick like this is always another Pageau (2011), but getting players of that caliber late rarely pans out).
His goal to assist ratio for a defenseman is bizarre; he was Sanderson’s teammate on a team stacked with draft picks (9 in total). How good is he? I think that’s very much up in the air–the Sens tend to get blinded by size and so the question remains if he can fulfill their plans for him. With that said, in theory he has another two seasons in the NCAA to develop, so there’s no rush to judgement on him.
Son of NHLer Geoff, his production curve is exactly what you want to see from a high pick and while it doesn’t guarantee greatness at the NHL level, it is nice to see a Sens top pick perform as expected. There’s always less to say about a player who is properly on the curve, so at this stage we just have to wait and see–is he ready for prime time in the NHL, or will he need (like Chabot) to spend some time in the AHL? I’m perfectly fine if he needs that seasoning–there’s no reason to rush.
Son of marginal NHLer Mark, like Sanderson above, he has the curve you want in a prospect. How will his agitating game translate at the NHL level? I have no idea, but that edge means if his production doesn’t translate there is another role for him. I’m not sure if he’s ready at the NHL-level (Sens marketing in the summer will tell you he is, but that doesn’t mean much). He’s definitely capable of helping in the AHL and I’ll be interested to see what the Sens do with him. Just like Sanderson above, I’m happy with a patient approach.
An off the wall pick from Finland, he crossed the pond to play in the OHL this season where he was middle of the pack among goaltenders (which is completely fine). The Sens amateur scouting for goaltenders has been pretty good–not great, perhaps, but in finding players who can play pro hockey. Goalies can take forever to develop and the Sens can be impatient, but there’s no rush with him at this point.
Ben Roger, DR, Nov 02, 6’4, 2-49/21 2020-21 did not play 2021-22 OHL 55-1-12-13 0.23 (5th)
The mystery is: can he be more than a big body (ala Ben Harpur, who could not stay in Nashville’s lineup this year)? There’s plenty of time to find out and I don’t think we’re close to answering that– his size will give him time to prove himself with the org, but I’m generally pessimistic about players who don’t produce at the junior level, so I need to see that before thinking he can make it.
Tyler Boucher, RW, Jan 03, 6’1, 1-10/21 2020-21 USDP 14-9-5-14 1.00 2021-22 OHL 24-7-7-14 0.58 (4th by ppg)
Son of former NHL goalie Brian, he bailed from Boston U mid-season to join the OHL, where he did not produce like a top-pick (keeping in mind the 67s were a low scoring team). I was underwhelmed by the selection when it was made and I’m still pessimistic about it, but there’s time for Boucher to prove me wrong.
When drafted his main claim to fame was he is fast; the questions was if he was anything else and that remains unanswered at this stage. I think he’s entering the make-or-break stage as a prospect and he needs to break out offensively or be dominant as a PK/specialist to move forward.
Enjoying a great playoff and I’m always happy when the org gambles on skill. How good can he be? I think that’s up in the air–we need to see more before we can truly gauge that (given that his production didn’t jump expectations should be tempered). The brass are satisfied, so when it’s time we’ll at least see him at the AHL-level.
Chandler Romeo, DL, Jul 03, 6’5, 7-202/21 2020-21 did not play 2021-22 OHL 67-2-16-18 0.26 (4th)
Normally I’d complain about picking a player purely due to size, but the seventh round is the place to swing for the fences–will Romeo pan out? Probably not, but I won’t be too critical if not. At his age there’s plenty of time to let him marinate and develop.
Oliver Johansson, CL, Jul 03, 6’0, 3-74/21 2020-21 Allsven 5-0-3-3 2021-22 J20 33-19-22-41 (1st by ppg)
An excellent skater who is still finding his way in the junior leagues in Sweden; there’s plenty of time to wait and see if Johansson can turn the corner to be good enough to cross the pond, but this season doesn’t change my opinion of him one way or another. I’d expect at least another couple of years in Sweden (barring a breakout), where he tests himself in the Allsvenskan/SHL.
Final Thoughts
There’s less to tease out with the prospects from the most recent draft, but a year of development does add to the body of evidence we have for them. Most of these prospects, as mentioned at the top, won’t make it and the expectations of most are modest–they are depth players. That’s not inherently a flaw so long as a few could be something more. Let’s categorize them for convenience:
Top-nine F/top-six D/back-up Viktor Lodin Jonny Tychonick Philippe Daoust Tyler Kleven Leevi Merilainen Tyler Boucher Zack Ostapchuk Oliver Johansson
Fourth-liner/6-7 D/minor starter Jakov Novak Eric Engstrand Ben Roger Carson Latimer Chandler Romeo
No Future Luke Loheit
I’m curious what lessons, if any, the Sens scouting staff has learned from the last few years, where a very skilled Tampa has won and only teams with deep talent pools have made it to the conference finals this year. I’d like to think at least some awareness of that has seeped into the org–Mann seems aware that speed is important enough to invest in, at least. I don’t know how myopic Dorion is–we have to remember that coming into the 2021-22 season he thought Ottawa would compete for a playoff spot, so will he spend a lot of capital for some perceived final piece to get them over the hump? That’s a fear I have, as Dorion’s pro deals are generally disasters. Time will tell. Regardless, I’m happy to hear thoughts or corrections in the comments and I’m looking forward to the draft.
One thing that’s been clear about the org since Trent Mann was promoted in 2017 is, above and beyond seeking certainty over potential, looking for character and truculence. We can (and I do) make fun of the latter–something I associate with Brian Burke and an approach that failed him after its solitary success with Anaheim in 2007 (a team largely built by his predecessors, Al Coates and Bryan Murray). Putting aside its efficacy, what I do think drafting and trading for players like this does is appeal to the fanbase–not casual fans (who are interested in wins and scoring)–but the hardcore. In a strong hockey market, focusing on these fans is a bit like MMO’s targeting whales–the big spenders, the people who commit. To that end, I think it’s a good economic strategy. The concern that remains is production–they can agitate, they can hit, but can they score? It remains an open question.
When you go against the grain there’s always resistance. I’ve briefly discussed the high opinion (shared by the org) of Jake Sanderson and I think my comments have been misunderstood by some. I compared him to players like Lassi Thomson and Jacob Bernard-Docker, not because I think they are literally the same kind of player, but in reference to the potential they were given by scouts when drafted (there’s rarely universal agreement and you can see the opposite opinion here, but I mean the consensus of what I’ve seen). All three prospects had worries about their offensive upside and were slotted as top-four blueliners–that’s all I meant by the comparison. This isn’t my opinion of the player (I’ve haven’t seen any of them play), but a reflection of worries held by scouts–that doesn’t make them right, it’s simply food for thought. Does Sanderson have more potential than the other two? I would hope so, because he was picked far higher in the draft (meaning his talent is considered better), but that wasn’t the point. I’d like nothing better than the guy to be a hall of fame defenseman for Ottawa, but the org habitually over praises their prospects (Jared Cowen comes to mind–someone we now know was riding the coattails of Jared Spurgeon), so I take a wait-and-see approach.
While it’s clear the Sens want to move Logan Brown (something that may prove impossible), more and more I wonder if the same fate awaits Erik Brannstrom. There’s no chance at that they want Brannstrom and Mete in the lineup at the same time, so either the former is intended for the BSens or will get traded (perhaps in an effort to fill one of Pierre McGuire’s 7-man formula).
Speaking of the BSens, one of the fascinating things about the upcoming season is how much the team’s success will depend on their record against just four teams. While almost 70% of their season is played within their division, most of that will be taken up by Laval and Toronto (each 12 games), and Syracuse and Rochester (8 games each). That’s 40 of 72 games (55%). When it comes time to preview the BSens, I’ll take a look at what’s expected for those teams as well.
Scoring in the NHL has started to increase the last four years [based, it seems, on coaching more than anything else], which is an obvious good thing after remaining stagnant for seven (an unprecedented length of time in the NHL to lack variation). This small change comes long after other major leagues took steps to ensure their own games became more entertaining. With that said, it remains below where it needs to be, still lagging behind all historical eras save the primordial pre-Original Six (specifically 23-24 to 40-41). The ten highest scoring games in NHL history are within a twenty-year period (1977-1996), with nine of the ten in the first half of that; the most points recorded in a season stretch from the 70-71 to 95-96, again clustering from the late 70s into the early 90s. This isn’t to say the NHL needs to consistently hit the highs of that era, but a league where major records can’t be challenged has no chance of breaking through the static of the other high profile sports they compete with (outside the homerun chases in the 90s, the MLB has been sliding towards oblivion for decades, cf). Where is the sweet spot for hockey? It’s hard to say, but let’s look at the numbers: Original Six (42-43 to 66-67) 2.93 Expansion (68-69 to 78-79) 2.96 (+0.03) 1980s to Pre-Lockout (79-80 to 93-94) 3.71 (+0.75) Dead Puck Era (94-95 to 03-04) 2.76 (-0.95) Post Lockout Era (05-06 to present) 2.85 (+0.09) The first era was long enough that it has its own internal structure, with higher scoring both at the beginning and end, with a ten-year long Dead Puck Era of its own (from 48-49 to 57-58). The actual high point is 1981-82 (not for the league however, as 43-44 holds that record for the eras we’re sampling). The most popular time for hockey was during the 70s and 80s and, despite continual expansion, the NHLs unwillingness to open the game up has lead to it sinking back down into a regional phenomena heavily impacted by winning. With only 50% of teams playoff bound (unlike the 66% in the Original Six or 76% of the 1980s), soft fanbases quickly checkout when their team is going nowhere–there are just so many other options for their entertainment dollars. I’m happy that the NHL is finally trending in the right direction, but entropy is a powerful force and I feel like a renewed slide towards low scoring affairs could be just around the corner.
I’m surprised HFBoards is still around. A website from an Internet era of two decades earlier, many of the same people post on it and I suppose that fits the older demographic associated with sports. The boards are something that made an impact on me back when I started writing about hockey (for The Hockey Herald in 2007), although I rarely visited the site once I started writing here.
Another Atlanta signing, as goaltender Chris Nell has been signed. The 27-year old NCAA grad failed out of the Rangers organization as an FA-signing and has put up poor numbers in the ECHL.
This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)
eyeonthesens 