I haven’t posted in awhile, but unlike previous years I have been watching occasionally (both the NHL and AHL). Win or lose the org is more entertaining to watch. Prior to the season’s open I’d started writing about D. J. Smith and I wanted to continue on with those thoughts since they are so relevant right now. Let me quote myself from prior to the season:
I was glad to see people talking about D. J. Smith’s poor starts & how he makes his gravy when the team is already irrelevant. I say this not because of a specific animosity towards Smith, but because it’s a reality that ought to be discussed and kept an eye on (is he the victim of circumstances, or is there an underlying problem–this season will make that clear).
And, indeed, as the season progressed there isn’t a noticeable difference in results between this year and last (4-8-1). The team has scored more, but otherwise they are statistically very similar to last season. Dressing Zaitsev was bad enough that he was put on waivers, but this is something Smith shouldn’t have needed to experiment with to know. However, one bad blueliner isn’t enough (we also can’t know how much pressure Dorion put on Smith to attempt to use the overpriced veteran).
I raised the alarm about this possibility in the summer, but the rest of the fan sites and local media were silent–pumped up by various signings and re-signings. I was hardly a lone voice in the wilderness however, as outside the marketplace caution was raised and the poor start has barely impacted impressions at The Atlantic for the team (as Shayna Goldman says, “Trendy picks from preseason like the Senators have dropped off, too, because their defense is still awful“), as their various odds have shifted only a little (pre-season/now):
Finish last place: 0% > 8.3%
Playoff Team: 25.6% > 2.8%
Stanley Cup Contender: 15% > 0%
First Coach Fired: 17.9% > 19.4%
The most interesting category relates to D. J. Smith, whose assumed future for The Atlantic‘s staff has barely been impacted by yet another horrific start.
There’s a lot to unpack about the early season, from losing Josh Norris to Artem Zub‘s being irreplaceable (going back to the lack of defensive depth in the org) to Anton Forsberg‘s struggles to carry the team. All roads, however, point to the blueline and that’s as much on Pierre Dorion as it is on D. J. Smith. Dorion could have got out of the Zaitsev business this off season or last, but he remains like a pustule on the buttocks of the org. That said, I’m not intending on a deep dive into the numbers, since I think the big picture problems are so obvious we don’t have to wade into the weeds to figure it out.
The Derick Brassard signing has proven largely meaningless, although at least the org understood he’s simply a fill-in. My question is whether his depth (at forward) was really worth an NHL contract, but it’s not an impactful enough choice to get excited about.
On the AHL side of things the BSens have been plagued with injuries making them hard to judge. The three most notable things to me are: 1) Cole Reinhardt might be on the verge of breaking out at this level (11-2-6-8, 3rd on the team), something I would not have predicted going into the season, 2) Jacob Larsson‘s acquisition has been a train wreck thus far, 3) the goaltending cannot save the team from its weak blueline (echoing the NHL team; and let me re-emphasize a point I made in July, that the BSens went all-in on big, defensive blueliners–maybe a few more puckmovers, eh Dorion?). We might have expected more production from Angus Crookshank and Ridley Greig, but as it turns out they did need some games to re-adjust (both coming off injuries and for the latter it’s his rookie season). The team’s middling record (4-6-1) matches their special teams and their primary problem is they give up a ton of goals (the most per-game in the conference) and are scoring less than expected (middle of the pack in the conference).
As a fan I want both iterations of the org to turn it around (I don’t think the sale of the team is much of a distraction). However, I think Smith is going to be a sacrifice to save Dorion from a fate he created for himself and there’s a decent chance he’ll continue to sail along until new ownership or the off-season arrives. Time will tell!
This article was written by Peter Levi
eyeonthesens 