Sens Deadline Moves

It’s deadline time and (yet again) the Sens are sellers. I talked about this a bit before, but it’s worth going through what’s likely to happen and what I think should happen (contracts beyond this season noted). I’m not expecting the Sens to add a significant player (not that they can’t, just that nothing suggests that they are). In terms of needs, goaltending is the priority, followed by depth (both on the blueline and at forward), but the latter isn’t something they should worry about in a dead season. [Why Ian Mendes continues to put Drake Batherson on his lists is beyond me–his contract is excellent for what he does–I can’t help but wonder if there other reasons behind it (the early stain of the 2018 WJC accusations come to mind).]

Players Who Will Be Moved
Tarasenko (UFA) – He must go or they lose him for nothing; in the link above I go through his expected destinations; the team won’t get the value for him that St. Louis got last year, but he should yield a couple of picks or a pick and a prospect (highest pick being a 2nd)
Kubalik (UFA) – As above (he must go or they lose him for nothing); I think they’ll get very little for him and may have to take a salary back or retain salary (I’d guess they get a pick for him–maybe they can squeeze out a 4th)
Brannstrom (RFA/arbitration) – There is no room for him in the org, particularly since he’s on the left side (even if one of the Big Three get moved–as I think will happen–there’s Kleven behind him who is better suited to depth minutes); the price is probably a prospect and/or a pick for him (might get a 2nd for him if there are still believers in the league)

Players Who Should Move
Chabot (8.0/27-28) – I love the player, but at his cost I’d rather keep Chychrun as #2 behind Sanderson; the Sens will have to take a salary back (whether just to finish out the season or to keep is hard to say), but they should also get a prospect and a couple of picks (I’d want a 1st); this is a decision that can wait until the off-season, however
Hamonic (1.1/24-25) – He’s completely fallen apart and needs to go, but I don’t think anyone will take him, so a buyout in the off-season is likely
Korpisalo (4.0/27-28) – Has to be bought out as there’s no market for his absurd contract (I’ve seen it argued there’s too much term/money left for a buyout, but this isn’t Toronto where you can magically bury someone on LTIR like Matt Murray) [Mendes makes that argument, link above]
T. Boucher (ELC 0.863/25-26) – As a declining asset I’d move him if anyone wants him (he’s injured again)–maybe you can squeeze someone for a 2nd, but much more likely a 3rd is all you can hope for [Mendes, link above, wants to keep him because ‘he has upside’–every young player does, but they usually have shown something by this point.]

Players Who Could Move
Kelly (RFA arbitration) – Could go, but he’s cheap and an RFA so the only pressure to do so is if they want to clear roster space for prospects/fresh blood (someone like Crookshank, for instance); nothing of substance would come back (a late pick perhaps)
Mandolese (RFA arbitration) – If you prioritize Meriliainen over him (as presumably they do), he’s a third-wheel going into next season (there’s a caveat to this: if they want Sogaard to play in the NHL next year you can keep him); if they move him they get a late pick (6th) or prospect
Joseph (2.95/25-26) – I think he’s overpaid, but with the cap going up the Sens might have decided he’s worth keeping (don’t pay attention his current career numbers as they are due to usage and almost certainly not repeatable); the Sens could get a prospect and/or picks for him (might squeeze out a late 2nd for him) [Mendes considers him untouchable and doesn’t go into the potential cap problems he creates]
Norris (7.95/29-30) – I’ve begun to wonder if the org wants to move on from someone with such a short track record (just one dominant season) given his contract and with (much cheaper) centers Pinto and Grieg behind him; a salary would have to come back with a prospect and/or picks (would any other team think he’s an 8 million dollar player? Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t in the league anymore so I’m not sure)–there is, however, no specific reason to move him at the deadline (it’s much easier to move a salary like this in the off-season)

[Mendes includes Smejkal as someone who will likely be moved, which makes it clear he hasn’t watched many (if any) BSens games or had a clear understanding of what kind of player he’d be across the pond–could he be moved? Sure, it’s much more likely a disappointing AHL-veteran (Currie, for instance) gets shifted to end the lineup chaos in Belleville. His AHL list that follows seems equally random, although we’ll credit that Mendes has, perhaps, talked to the org ahead of time (doesn’t seem like it, but maybe).]

That’s how I see it. Tarasenko, Kubalik, and Brannstrom go, with 1-2 players coming back (just to finish out the season) along with 1-2 prospects and some picks (possibly two 2nds). Beyond that it’s much more up in the air and many of the players who could be moved have difficult contracts to deal with, so that may be all the Sens do (I don’t envision Staios as someone who wants to shake up the lineup too much yet).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 25, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Goaltending, Tarasenko, Prospects, and Formenton

As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).

With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams:
Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening
Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible
Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination
Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina
Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move
Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be

My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).

The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold):
1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment
2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues)
3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet
4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling
5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20)
6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each)
7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player
8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL
9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2)
10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge
11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point
12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers)
13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that
14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental
15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)

I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.

We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.

As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 19, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments