Under the radar Sens GM Staios made a couple of minor league deals about a week ago (March 15th), acquiring failed Winnipeg asset Wyatt Bongiovanni for nothing (future considerations) and sending their 6th round pick for failed Carolina asset Jamieson Rees. The former deal I greet with a shrug of the shoulders–it costs nothing and the BSens are short on useful forwards, so why not try? I’m less enamored with the second deal, since dumping picks for questionable assets is a poor use of draft capital. Let’s look at both players.
A relatively unremarkable USHL player who moved on to Quinnipiac where he was much better; he finished his final NCAA season second in scoring to the undrafted, undersized defenseman Zach Metsa (who is having a decent season with Rochester as a rookie). Was he unproductive on the Moose or was he not given the opportunity? Given that the Jets gave him away I’m leaning towards the former.
The OHL grad’s career has derailed after a solid third AHL-season last year. He’s never been dominant in the minors and I don’t see the NHL upside, so I’m lost on why the Sens want to take a flier on him (as in, what’s the hope for him with the org?). Barring a late season surge this looks like a fail off the hop. For those with good memories (or a nose for trivia), Rees has an Ottawa connection, as the pick used to draft him was part of the Erik Karlsson deal, subsequently traded away to draft Mads Sogaard (cf).
We had one other transaction that I’ve expected for some time: signing Stephen Halliday to his ELC (cf for projection thoughts).
Stephen Halliday, DOB 02, CL, 6’3, 4-104/22 2021-22 62-35-60-95 (1st) 2022-23 40-9-32-41 (1st) 2023-24 38-10-26-36 (1st)
For once the Sens drafted for talent in the later rounds and he’s proceeded to lead his team in production every season. The BSens are desperate for scoring (something neither of the two players above can solve) and the org in general needs a talent-injection. Here’s hoping he can provide that (certainly his size gives him the option of being more than just a scorer as well). If his description sounds a little bit like failed picks Todd Burgess (4-103/16) and Jakov Novak (7-188/18) it’s worth noting that Halliday was much more productive than both as a college player. He was, incidentally, playing with Sens prospect Theo Wallberg who has turned poor USHL production into solid NCAA production as a rookie, which is encouraging.
While there are plenty of excuses, Sens GM Steve Staios ends the deadline in failure, having moved just one piece that needed to go (cf my prior concern). Kubalik will walk away for nothing, Brannstrom is still here, and so on. Yes, the market was soft, but the best GM’s figure it out and Staios did not.
That’s not to write him off or say he can’t handle the job, we’re just looking at this specific situation. On the plus side, he didn’t make any bad trades or silly additions (Boris Katchouk off waivers is fine, if perplexing). Staios hasn’t made the team any worse, but he hasn’t improved it either. We’ll have a better sense of his true capabilities at the draft and then in free agency. With that said, let’s look at the one deal he did pull off.
Tarasenko, as a Sen, performed as expected: 57-17-24-41 0.72(-0.04 with St. Louis last year, where he was averaging +1:29 TOI) The primary criticism was signing him in the first place–it created cap hell for Ottawa and didn’t make the team better (nor did he produce at Debrinkat levels–0.80 with the Sens last year, 0.86 with Detroit this year).
Outside of local Ottawa reporters, no one liked the Tarasenko trade, despite the limitations (supposedly Florida was the only place he’d go and his family has been living there the entire season). Both writers at The Athletic gave Staios a poor grade (a C from Dom Luszczyszyn and a C- from Sean Gentille), and I agree with them. The picks provided by the Panthers will be late in those rounds and two 3rds or a 3rd/4th aren’t likely to produce NHL players (the last time I ran the numbers about 10% of 3rd-rounders made it (the last Ottawa 3rd-rounder to pan out was Zack Smith in 2008); the picks are useful as elements for other deals)–the value is very similar to what Toronto gave up for marginal defenseman Joel Edmundson, while Seattle GM Ron Francis was able to squeeze a 2nd-rounder from the Rangers for Alexander Wennberg. Retaining half his salary this season is fine given that Norris is (again!) injured.
The brief run the Sens went on with Jacques Martin has ended and they will likely finish as a bottom-five team in. The primary problem remains goaltending. It will be interesting to see if Staios believes they have the solution in the minors with Sogaardor if they look for someone else (obviously Korpisalo isn’t the solution, but that’s only a surprise to the departed Pierre Dorion). I’d try and get a veteran goalie with a decent track record (so not the scattered records of either Forsberg or Korpisalo), and either pair them with Sogaard or stick with Forsberg until you find a better solution. That’s on-paper what Dorion did in free agency, but Korpisalo clearly does not fit that bill.
Beyond goaltending there’s the depth problem (cf), something Dorion has tried to draft for years. While Jason York (& others) want to add ‘toughness’, the problem Ottawa has is the huge talent gap beyond their top players. The bottom half of the lineup can’t produce, which makes smothering the offense easy for elite teams. Players like Kastelic, MacEwen, and Chartier don’t move the needle enough and the Sens aren’t drafting enough talent (T. Boucher etc). It will be interesting to see how Staios envisions the bottom-six and what he does to fulfill that vision.
I want to go all the way back to August to look at moves. I have St. Louis as a buyer, not just because they are technically still in the wild card race, but more for how they’ve behaved (Calgary, who are tied with them, have operated more like sellers). For conditional picks I’ve leaned on what seems most likely; ‘prospects’ includes players on two-way deals; FC=future considerations.
Going into the deadline, The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn wrote about five ‘buyer beware’ players and three of them were acquired: Dumba to Tampa, E. Johnson to Philadelphia, and Peeke to Boston. All three are big, physical defensemen, which is what’s in vogue and in the first two cases are purely rentals.
Other interesting notes: LA made no deals over this period (the only such team); Calgary acquired the most picks (7 and although one of those was traded away, 6 remains the most); Vegas surrendered the most (6). Teams that gave away 1st-round picks: Vegasx2 (Hertl, Hanifin), Edmonton (Henrique/Carrick), Winnipeg (Monahan), Pittsburgh (Karlsson), Vancouver (Lindholm), and Colorado (Walker; other than the Penguins these are all playoff teams). San Jose added the most NHL players (6), while they and Pittsburgh traded away the most (5 each). Pittsburgh also acquired the most prospects (8), while Carolina traded away the most (7). While the deadline was a dud for Ottawa, it was a busy time overall.
One of the mantras we hear from the Sens’ new ownership and GM (directly and through the media) is patience. They want to assess things. Abstractly this is a good thing–you don’t want to rush decisions. However, it’s beginning to feel like this might be beyond patience and simply reflect indecisiveness. Let’s look at some examples.
Pierre Dorion Everyone knew he needed to go–from his disastrous trades and signings, to his mixed draft record, to his absurd comments in the media about expectations (Cup challengers in 2018 to the rebuild being over every year from 2019 onwards). Instead of firing him, Andlauer did nothing until the NHL nuked him from orbit.
D. J. Smith I have no idea if Smith could find success in another situation, but nothing about his prior performance suggested he could take the Sens roster and lead it anywhere. Rather than making a change, he was allowed to coach the team to a limp 11-15-0 record with no signs of improvement before getting replaced by the long retired Jacques Martin.
Goaltending It didn’t take a crystal ball to guess that the Korpisalo-Forsberg tandem was going to struggle–I called it out when it happened. I’m not sure I expected them to be this bad, but Korpisalo‘s play with a better defensive team in front of him is close to his career worst season in Columbus (2021-22). Forsberg, on the other hand, is having his career worst performance. Ottawa has talent in the minors, but Sogaard is not ready for prime time (he’s only 23), despite a career year in Belleville (the BSens have overplayed him). What should have happened ASAP was moving one of the vets (Forsberg because his contract is easier to move) and gamble on someone else while waiting until the off-season to buyout Korpisalo. Instead, the two have been left to rot and lose what little value they have.
The Roster I have more sympathy here because Dorion created cap problems going into the season. That said, when the writing was on the wall in December a lot of moves could have been made (Kubalik‘s value has only gone down as the season has gone on, for example). There’s also been a logjam of veterans in the AHL all year long that has been ignored–it’s not fair to the vets or the players looking for ice time.
I have to think the incessant Chychrun rumours are coming from the team (not just because Ian Mendes won’t stop talking about it, but because we’re seeing the speculation outside the market as well). No one seems to want to make the comparison between he and Chabot for the future (I took a brief look in September, with Chabot picking up yet one more injury since then while Chychrun has been healthy for the first time in years). The only reason to trade Chychrun over Chabot is salary, but I’d much rather move an injury-prone, 8.0 cap hit. Maybe Staios is playing 4D-chess, but there’s no evidence for that thus far.
It doesn’t help that the local media is channeling their inner Don Cherry and demanding more toughness on the team (MacEwen‘s demotion and Kastelic‘s horrendous season having no impact on them). It boggles the mind that in 2024 there are still people who think ‘good in the corners’ (without tangible outcomes being attached to the term) are being seriously bandied about.
eyeonthesens 