Under the radar Sens GM Staios made a couple of minor league deals about a week ago (March 15th), acquiring failed Winnipeg asset Wyatt Bongiovanni for nothing (future considerations) and sending their 6th round pick for failed Carolina asset Jamieson Rees. The former deal I greet with a shrug of the shoulders–it costs nothing and the BSens are short on useful forwards, so why not try? I’m less enamored with the second deal, since dumping picks for questionable assets is a poor use of draft capital. Let’s look at both players.
A relatively unremarkable USHL player who moved on to Quinnipiac where he was much better; he finished his final NCAA season second in scoring to the undrafted, undersized defenseman Zach Metsa (who is having a decent season with Rochester as a rookie). Was he unproductive on the Moose or was he not given the opportunity? Given that the Jets gave him away I’m leaning towards the former.
The OHL grad’s career has derailed after a solid third AHL-season last year. He’s never been dominant in the minors and I don’t see the NHL upside, so I’m lost on why the Sens want to take a flier on him (as in, what’s the hope for him with the org?). Barring a late season surge this looks like a fail off the hop. For those with good memories (or a nose for trivia), Rees has an Ottawa connection, as the pick used to draft him was part of the Erik Karlsson deal, subsequently traded away to draft Mads Sogaard (cf).
We had one other transaction that I’ve expected for some time: signing Stephen Halliday to his ELC (cf for projection thoughts).
Stephen Halliday, DOB 02, CL, 6’3, 4-104/22 2021-22 62-35-60-95 (1st) 2022-23 40-9-32-41 (1st) 2023-24 38-10-26-36 (1st)
For once the Sens drafted for talent in the later rounds and he’s proceeded to lead his team in production every season. The BSens are desperate for scoring (something neither of the two players above can solve) and the org in general needs a talent-injection. Here’s hoping he can provide that (certainly his size gives him the option of being more than just a scorer as well). If his description sounds a little bit like failed picks Todd Burgess (4-103/16) and Jakov Novak (7-188/18) it’s worth noting that Halliday was much more productive than both as a college player. He was, incidentally, playing with Sens prospect Theo Wallberg who has turned poor USHL production into solid NCAA production as a rookie, which is encouraging.
One of the mantras we hear from the Sens’ new ownership and GM (directly and through the media) is patience. They want to assess things. Abstractly this is a good thing–you don’t want to rush decisions. However, it’s beginning to feel like this might be beyond patience and simply reflect indecisiveness. Let’s look at some examples.
Pierre Dorion Everyone knew he needed to go–from his disastrous trades and signings, to his mixed draft record, to his absurd comments in the media about expectations (Cup challengers in 2018 to the rebuild being over every year from 2019 onwards). Instead of firing him, Andlauer did nothing until the NHL nuked him from orbit.
D. J. Smith I have no idea if Smith could find success in another situation, but nothing about his prior performance suggested he could take the Sens roster and lead it anywhere. Rather than making a change, he was allowed to coach the team to a limp 11-15-0 record with no signs of improvement before getting replaced by the long retired Jacques Martin.
Goaltending It didn’t take a crystal ball to guess that the Korpisalo-Forsberg tandem was going to struggle–I called it out when it happened. I’m not sure I expected them to be this bad, but Korpisalo‘s play with a better defensive team in front of him is close to his career worst season in Columbus (2021-22). Forsberg, on the other hand, is having his career worst performance. Ottawa has talent in the minors, but Sogaard is not ready for prime time (he’s only 23), despite a career year in Belleville (the BSens have overplayed him). What should have happened ASAP was moving one of the vets (Forsberg because his contract is easier to move) and gamble on someone else while waiting until the off-season to buyout Korpisalo. Instead, the two have been left to rot and lose what little value they have.
The Roster I have more sympathy here because Dorion created cap problems going into the season. That said, when the writing was on the wall in December a lot of moves could have been made (Kubalik‘s value has only gone down as the season has gone on, for example). There’s also been a logjam of veterans in the AHL all year long that has been ignored–it’s not fair to the vets or the players looking for ice time.
I have to think the incessant Chychrun rumours are coming from the team (not just because Ian Mendes won’t stop talking about it, but because we’re seeing the speculation outside the market as well). No one seems to want to make the comparison between he and Chabot for the future (I took a brief look in September, with Chabot picking up yet one more injury since then while Chychrun has been healthy for the first time in years). The only reason to trade Chychrun over Chabot is salary, but I’d much rather move an injury-prone, 8.0 cap hit. Maybe Staios is playing 4D-chess, but there’s no evidence for that thus far.
It doesn’t help that the local media is channeling their inner Don Cherry and demanding more toughness on the team (MacEwen‘s demotion and Kastelic‘s horrendous season having no impact on them). It boggles the mind that in 2024 there are still people who think ‘good in the corners’ (without tangible outcomes being attached to the term) are being seriously bandied about.
It’s deadline time and (yet again) the Sens are sellers. I talked about this a bit before, but it’s worth going through what’s likely to happen and what I think should happen (contracts beyond this season noted). I’m not expecting the Sens to add a significant player (not that they can’t, just that nothing suggests that they are). In terms of needs, goaltending is the priority, followed by depth (both on the blueline and at forward), but the latter isn’t something they should worry about in a dead season. [Why Ian Mendes continues to put Drake Batherson on his lists is beyond me–his contract is excellent for what he does–I can’t help but wonder if there other reasons behind it (the early stain of the 2018 WJC accusations come to mind).]
Players Who Will Be Moved Tarasenko (UFA) – He must go or they lose him for nothing; in the link above I go through his expected destinations; the team won’t get the value for him that St. Louis got last year, but he should yield a couple of picks or a pick and a prospect (highest pick being a 2nd) Kubalik (UFA) – As above (he must go or they lose him for nothing); I think they’ll get very little for him and may have to take a salary back or retain salary (I’d guess they get a pick for him–maybe they can squeeze out a 4th) Brannstrom (RFA/arbitration) – There is no room for him in the org, particularly since he’s on the left side (even if one of the Big Three get moved–as I think will happen–there’s Kleven behind him who is better suited to depth minutes); the price is probably a prospect and/or a pick for him (might get a 2nd for him if there are still believers in the league)
Players Who Should Move Chabot (8.0/27-28) – I love the player, but at his cost I’d rather keep Chychrun as #2 behind Sanderson; the Sens will have to take a salary back (whether just to finish out the season or to keep is hard to say), but they should also get a prospect and a couple of picks (I’d want a 1st); this is a decision that can wait until the off-season, however Hamonic (1.1/24-25) – He’s completely fallen apart and needs to go, but I don’t think anyone will take him, so a buyout in the off-season is likely Korpisalo (4.0/27-28) – Has to be bought out as there’s no market for his absurd contract (I’ve seen it argued there’s too much term/money left for a buyout, but this isn’t Toronto where you can magically bury someone on LTIR like Matt Murray) [Mendes makes that argument, link above] T. Boucher (ELC 0.863/25-26) – As a declining asset I’d move him if anyone wants him (he’s injured again)–maybe you can squeeze someone for a 2nd, but much more likely a 3rd is all you can hope for [Mendes, link above, wants to keep him because ‘he has upside’–every young player does, but they usually have shown something by this point.]
Players Who Could Move Kelly (RFA arbitration) – Could go, but he’s cheap and an RFA so the only pressure to do so is if they want to clear roster space for prospects/fresh blood (someone like Crookshank, for instance); nothing of substance would come back (a late pick perhaps) Mandolese (RFA arbitration) – If you prioritize Meriliainen over him (as presumably they do), he’s a third-wheel going into next season (there’s a caveat to this: if they want Sogaard to play in the NHL next year you can keep him); if they move him they get a late pick (6th) or prospect Joseph (2.95/25-26) – I think he’s overpaid, but with the cap going up the Sens might have decided he’s worth keeping (don’t pay attention his current career numbers as they are due to usage and almost certainly not repeatable); the Sens could get a prospect and/or picks for him (might squeeze out a late 2nd for him) [Mendes considers him untouchable and doesn’t go into the potential cap problems he creates] Norris (7.95/29-30) – I’ve begun to wonder if the org wants to move on from someone with such a short track record (just one dominant season) given his contract and with (much cheaper) centers Pinto and Grieg behind him; a salary would have to come back with a prospect and/or picks (would any other team think he’s an 8 million dollar player? Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t in the league anymore so I’m not sure)–there is, however, no specific reason to move him at the deadline (it’s much easier to move a salary like this in the off-season)
[Mendes includes Smejkal as someone who will likely be moved, which makes it clear he hasn’t watched many (if any) BSens games or had a clear understanding of what kind of player he’d be across the pond–could he be moved? Sure, it’s much more likely a disappointing AHL-veteran (Currie, for instance) gets shifted to end the lineup chaos in Belleville. His AHL list that follows seems equally random, although we’ll credit that Mendes has, perhaps, talked to the org ahead of time (doesn’t seem like it, but maybe).]
That’s how I see it. Tarasenko, Kubalik, and Brannstrom go, with 1-2 players coming back (just to finish out the season) along with 1-2 prospects and some picks (possibly two 2nds). Beyond that it’s much more up in the air and many of the players who could be moved have difficult contracts to deal with, so that may be all the Sens do (I don’t envision Staios as someone who wants to shake up the lineup too much yet).
As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).
With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams: Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be
My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).
The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold): 1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment 2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues) 3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet 4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling 5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20) 6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each) 7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player 8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL 9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2) 10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge 11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point 12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers) 13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that 14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental 15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)
I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.
We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.
As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).
This snapshot has the BSens at the 34-game mark (once again the schedule made a 10-game segment awkward to do & the post was delayed due to illness–they’ve since lost to Utica and Laval). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
The BSens winning percentage started to crawl forward (7th in their conference). In this set of games they went 6-3-0 (4-2-0 in the division). Special teams: PP 16.4% (+1.8), PK 78.3% (-0.4)–the horrible NHL PK is being replicated at the AHL-level; GF 25, GA 22, which in terms of per-game is 2.77 (-0.48) and 2.44 (-1.06); the BSens are the second lowest scoring team in their conference, but not by much.
Game by Game Cleveland 1-2 (Saulnier/Daoust still injured; Sebrango, Smejkal returned; Larsson NHL; Merilainen back to ECHL) Wilkes-Barre 1-5 (Crookshank/Smejkal to NHL) Toronto 4-3 (Heatherington to Spengler) Laval 4-1 (M. Boucher back to ECHL; Heatherington Spengler) Toronto 3-2 (no change) Manitoba 2-1 (Heatherington/Saulnier back) Manitoba 4-0 (Smejkal/Crookshank back; Fizer to ECHL; Lukosevicius released) Toronto 0-8 (Sogaard NHL; Merilainen recalled from the ECHL; Jarventie, McPhee injury) Toronto 6-2 (Imama suspended; McPhee returns)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The upswing for McPhee doesn’t mean very much, I’m simply noting it because it’s not something I thought he could do. As for Reinhardt, this isn’t concerning unless it continues, as historically he’s always had offensive droughts. Highmore is more troubling and I’m not clear what the issue is. It’s nice to see Sokolov rounding into form after a career worst start.
What Larsson is doing is unsustainable–he’s had a long pro career and putting up points has never been part of it. Thomson is suffering because he’s been pulled from the PP. Otherwise we’re simply seeing Guenette return to more expected production and that Sebrango hasn’t found a new gear to change his fate.
The song remains the same–Mandolese goes through hot and cold streaks while Merilainen slowly continues to grow. How much having Justin Peters promoted to the NHL impacts things remains uncertain.
This post is late–unfortunately I was ill last week so I didn’t get this out on time. In general, given the talent limitations of the club I think the performance is about as expected.
The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).
Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.
I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap: Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well. Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.
What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):
Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons) Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost) Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above] Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!) MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside
You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.
There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.
What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.
As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).
What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed: Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet) The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).
How about the unsigned? Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league) Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production
What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.
As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next): 2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th 2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th 2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.
Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.
How time flies as the BSens are now at the 22-game mark (here are my comments on the first 10; the schedule made another 10-game segment awkward to do). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
While the BSens winning percentage has barely moved, they’ve technically moved up the standings slightly (although their position via winning percentage is unchanged). The most recent segment: 5-4-3; going 4-2-0 in the division; PP 14.6% (-2.4%); PK 78.7% (-1.8%); GF 39 (+12); GA 42 (+12)–because this covers two extra games we’d expect more goals for/against, but in terms of per-game the team has gone from 2.7 to 3.25 and 3.0 to 3.5 (so both have increased unrelated to the extra games).
Game by Game 2-1 Cleveland (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 4-6 Laval (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango; in Ottawa: Sogaard, Larsson) 2-3 Manitoba (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 1-8 Lehigh (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 3-4 (OT) Hartford (Kleven, Larsson returned; Supryka released from PTO; PTO Orrin Centazzo; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-4 Bridgeport (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 6-3 Utica (Jarventie, Sogaard returned; Merilainen to ECHL; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-3 Rochester (no changes) 4-2 Rochester (no changes) 5-2 Laval (Highmore, Reinhardt, Fizer back; Sogaard injured; Centazzo released; Sebrango loaned to ECHL) 5-2 Grand Rapids (Smejkal to Ottawa; Merilainen recalled) 3-4 (OT) Grand Rapids (Sogaard back from injury)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The biggest surprise are Sokolov‘s struggles. I think he’ll snap out of it as he’s well below his career average (0.79 coming into the season, he’s at just 0.54 right now). The other notable is veteran signee Currie, whose struggles are to the point where I have to assume the team wants to move him (there were signs of a decline when he was in KHL). On the positive side, Crookshank is starting to look like the form he had when he broke into the league and M. Boucher is enjoying the most success he’s had at this level as a pro (although that’s probably not sustainable). One trivial note I want to make is that Betts has tripled his prior production last season with the BSens (however anemic that still remains).
Defense Guenette 12-2-7-9 (22-3-14-17) Thomson 12-2-3-5 (22-3-5-8) *Matinpalo 12-1-2-3 (17-2-2-4) NHL 4-0-0-0 TOI 7:00 @Heatherington 12-1-2-3 (21-2-2-4) *Kleven 6-1-1-2 (10-1-3-4) NHL 5-0-1-1 11:01 @Larsson 9-0-2-2 (18-2-2-4) #MacKinnon 9-0-2-2 (15-0-3-3) JBD 2-0-0-0NHL 18-1-3-4 TOI 16:50 %Supryka 3-0-0-0 (7-0-0-0) [no longer on the roster] Sebrango [ECHL 4-1-1-2]
Guenette has managed to maintain his hot pace and is the primary offensive driver from the blueline. Thomson is gradually moving back to his usual pace production (0.30->0.41, with 0.59 being the norm), but other than perhaps Kleven the team (as predicted) struggles to generate offense from the back end. It also looks like it will be safe to remove JBD from this list next time as he seems locked in Ottawa.
I mentioned prior to the season that Mandolese is consistently inconsistent and this persists. Merilainen experienced his first bumps as an AHL-pro, but that shouldn’t cause concern and in the ECHL he’s been by far the best goaltender. Sogaard has remained excellent and seems to be back on form after an inconsistent 2022-23.
The BSens are still figuring out their powerplay as only Guenette and Sokolov are producing consistently. Special teams in general have been poor and I feel like are among the indicators of coaching impact, but there’s still time for things to solidify and improve.
We’re 10-games into the BSens-season, so it’s a good time to take a snapshot and see how they are performing. It’s worth keeping in mind that this season the BSens added no high end prospects other than Merilainen in net, so we have a few ‘maybes’ (Daoust, Ostapchuk and T. Boucher) along with free agent shots in the dark (Smejkal and Matinpalo). T. Boucher, just like in his amateur seasons, is hurt, so can’t be assessed as a pro yet, while the others have all shown flashes to varying degrees.
There are no streaks (good or bad) as the team is basically treading water behind excellent goaltending. Compared to their conference there are plenty of concerns (special teams and scoring), but they are simply mediocre in their division thus far.
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player
Forwards @Highmore 9-2-5-7 (currently in the NHL) Crookshank 10-2-4-6 (includes empty net goal) Sokolov 10-2-4-6 (leads the team in shots) @Pilon 8-3-2-5 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) Reinhardt 10-2-3-5 *Ostapchuk 10-2-2-4 (has the team’s only shorthanded goal) Jarventie 6-1-2-3 (currently in the NHL; includes empty net assist) @Currie 7-1-2-3 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) *Smejkal 7-1-2-3 (games missed due to injury) @MacEwen 4-2-0-2 (back in the NHL) #Saulnier 9-1-1-2 (game missed due to injury) *Daoust 4-0-2-2 (initially assigned to the ECHL; now injured) [ECHL 5-3-2-5] #McPhee 7-1-0-1 (scratched three times) @Imama 7-0-1-1 (games missed due to the team being over the veteran limit) *#Fizer 8-0-0-0 (games missed due to injury) %M. Boucher 2-0-0-0 [ECHL Trois-Rivieres 8-7-5-12] %Lukosevicius 1-0-0-0 [ECHL South Carolina 8-5-3-8] %Betts 1-0-0-0 [ECHL Utah 5-1-4-5] *T. Boucher (injured)
Of the players under their usual numbers, I don’t make much of it yet–one or two good games would fix it. If there’s a general issue it’s that no one is breaking out–the BSens have struggled to score (an expected issue coming into the season).
Defense Guenette 10-1-7-8 Thomson 10-1-2-3 @Larsson 9-2-0-2 (game missed due to veteran limit) Kleven 4-0-2-2 (currently in the NHL) *Matinpalo 5-1-0-1 (games missed due to being in the NHL) @Heatherington 9-1-0-1 (game missed due to illness) #MacKinnon 6-0-1-1 (scratched four times) %Supryka 4-0-0-0 [ECHL Fort Wayne 3-0-1-1] Bernard-Docker 2-0-0-0 (currently in the NHL) Sebrango (injured*) [ECHL 1-1-0-1] *[Sebrango’s case is a little strange–he was assigned to Allen Oct.22, but is listed as injured by Belleville; I’m unclear if he was assigned after injury recovery and got injured again or was scratched, re-assigned, and then injured]
This has been a great start for Guenette and it will be interesting to see if he can sustain it. As with the forwards above, it’s too early to be concerned with those below par, particularly as the team in general struggles with offense. On the whole I think coach Bell has done well with his ever changing blueline, particularly with so many top players recalled. That said, it remains a work in progress.
Sogaard has been excellent and unfortunately Mandolese‘s erratic play is unchanged from every other season–you simply never know what you’ll get with him and that’s put Merilainen solidly ahead. I do think the team has relied a bit too much on Sogaard and needs to rotate more.
Outside the first three players no one else has established themselves with the man advantage–something that’s heavily contributed to the BSens scoring woes.
I’ve included this just for trivia–it’s not relevant to performance.
The addition of ECHL blueliner Cameron Supryka (DL, 59-5-19-24) is the only added PTO who had not played with Belleville last year. The team brought backMatthew Boucher (passim), Jarid Lukosevicius, and Kyle Betts (cf). Clearly the BSens have a preference for known quantities. I don’t think much of Betts, but as he’s intended to play fourth-line minutes that’s not a big deal. Both M. Boucher and Lukosevicius can score (to some degree) at this level, which is something the BSens need throughout their roster.
On the whole the team has defensive issues that goaltending is patching over and has yet to find its momentum offensively. Whether either can be truly cured without more players being returned from Ottawa remains to be seen. As it stands, I think the immediate results are fine, but I don’t think they are sustainable without progress/changes.
For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).
One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.
There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.
We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.
NHL 2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals 2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher 2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford 2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith 2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith 2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith 2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith AHL (Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East) 2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton) 2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst 2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann 2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round 2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell
In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).
Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.
Trades 2016-17 1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player. Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar 2017-18 Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado) Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton) 1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto) 2018-19 Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below) Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system) Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later) Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now 2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA) 2019-20 Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible) J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona) 2020-21 Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that) 2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe 2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona) 2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired 2021-22 Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why? Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it 2022-23 Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, ifChychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season? Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder
Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?
Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23) We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player: 1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher) 1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig) 2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie) 2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov) 3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen) 4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin) 5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic) 6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt) 7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)
I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.
Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).
What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.
FA Signings (Not comprehensive) Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season) Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik) Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)
Re-signed (Not comprehensive) Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28 Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)
I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.
Cap Hell
The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:
If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.
There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.
The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.
The attempt to cap clean to sign Shane Pinto seems to have boiled down to just Mathieu Joseph (according to Bruce Garrioch), as there’s limited interest in Brannstrom (something not helped by Columbus desperately trying to move a defenseman). If that’s true, his play early on this season helps making that move easier (even if the rest of the NHL know they have Dorion over a barrel–only eight teams can currently afford to take him). This entire mess, including Joseph‘s contract, is of Dorion’s own making, so they are once again paying for his inability to properly assess talent.
As for the team itself, it’s an unremarkable 3-3-0. It’s too early to say much of anything other than the early returns on Tarasenko have been good (leads the team in points), Kubalik has been awful (no points), and without their top-four the Sens struggle (both games without Zub have been disasters–giving up 11 goals–collectively Brannstrom, Hamonic, and JBD can’t fill the void). The only surprise for me is Kubalik, but it’s too soon to be worried. November has been the breaking point for D. J. Smith’s seasons, so we have to wait and see.
Waiving MacEwen, whose three-year deal makes him immune to being claimed, only clears out 775k for the Sens in their effort to sign Pinto (he and JBD just aren’t enough combined: 1.58). MacEwen, who scored twice in his debut for the BSens, means Imama sits (since they have the same role but MacEwen is both a better fighter and player). The veteran clog in Belleville remains a problem Dorion created for himself and barring an early, major injury, the team will have to make a deal to get out of it. For now the team has rotated the scratches between Imama, Pilon, and Currie, but that’s not tenable for the whole season.
I’ve watched parts of the BSens last two games (their 5-2 loss to Lehigh Valley and their 5-4 win over Laval), but the entirety of their first game (3-0 over Hershey). I made a few notes/observations and we’ll start broadly: the team had terrible breakouts and structure and were getting killed on faceoffs; the second PP unit looked better than the first (which struggled badly). The team played with seven defensemen and initially JBD got the nod over Thomson, but it was a rough night for JBD so that switched after a bad penalty. Sogaard was excellent. Other specifics: -Ostapchuk got run over by McIlrath -Fizer was stopped on a breakaway (he has great speed) -Reinhardt scored a very nice goal -Guenette struggled being the top D on the pp -Matinpalo had a nice one-timer via Thomson -Great pass by Jarventie to Matinpalo (although he didn’t score) -Pilon breakaway via a Guenette pass (he was stopped) -Sokolov hit a post
The first line of Smejkal–Highmore–Sokolov has not worked (no apparent chemistry), so I expect it to change. I feel like coach Bell has a good sense of the bottom of his roster, but doesn’t know what to do with the top. It’s incredibly early in the season so too soon to judge player or coach performance and I expect juggling to continue for awhile.
eyeonthesens 