Another month is in the books for the BSens disappointing season. Randy Lee’s firm stamp of failure continues:
2014-15 34-34-8 .500
2015-16 31-38-7 .454
2016-17 28-44-4 .395
2017-18 21-33-4 .397
This is a pretty obvious decline, but making changes is not how the Sens’ org operates and his continued ineptitude will remain.

After a middling January the team (in the midst of divisional games important to their opponents) tanked, going 3-9-0. Funnily enough many of the underlying numbers improved or remained unchanged: the team’s shot differential dropped to its lowest level since November (and without the ridiculous 5-1 loss to Binghamton it would be by far the lowest of the season); the powerplay continued to improve; the PK was at its best efficiency since October; the anemic offense was unchanged; and the overall goals against was on par with January–so why all the losses? It’s pretty simple: they lost more of the close games.

The Roster

Chris DiDomenico played exactly one game before being recalled to Ottawa and then traded. Colin White, Ben Harpur, and Max McCormick spent at least half the month with Ottawa (the former two matter quite a bit to the BSens, the latter does not). On the injury front Francis Perron and Christian Jaros missed all of February, while Kyle Flanagan missed over half of it. Also missing multiple games were Jack Rodewald, Max Lajoie, and Jordan Murray. Vincent Dunn was finally traded off the roster (dumped on Pittsburgh as part of the Brassard trade). Returning from injury was Ben Sexton (out since early November), and the team acquired Ville Pokka from Chicago via the DiDomenico trade (who has been an immense help to the powerplay–21% since his arrival). The only other roster changes were: human meat-puppet Eric Selleck (inexplicably acquired from the Rangers) and failed Columbus prospect Nick Moutrey (part of the Ian Cole trade). Both came right as the month ended and other than Selleck helping his team lose last night neither have made an impact.

Stats (arranged by points-per-game; ELC’s in green)

Sexton 11-5-7-12 1.09
Paul 12-7-2-9 0.75
Chlapik 12-2-5-7 0.58
White 6-0-3-3 0.50
Harpur 6-0-3-3 0.50
O’Brien 11-2-3-5 0.45
McCormick 5-1-1-2 0.40
Blunden 10-0-4-4 0.40
Rodewald 8-1-2-3 0.37
Dunn 3-0-1-1 0.33
Pokka 6-0-2-2 0.33
Reinhart 12-2-2-4 0.33
Randell 11-2-1-3 0.27
Lajoie 8-0-2-2 0.25
Murray 9-0-2-2 0.22
Flanagan 5-1-0-1 0.20
Gagne 12-1-1-2 0.16
Englund 12-0-2-2 0.16
Erkamps 8-1-0-1 0.12
Burgdoerfer 10-0-1-1 0.10
Ciampini 11-1-0-1 0.09
DiDomenico 1-0-0-0
Moutrey 1-0-0-0
Selleck 2-0-0-0
Werek 10-0-0-0
Sieloff 12-0-0-0

Driedger 0-1-0 .906 5.00 ECHL 2-1-0 .946 1.36
Hogberg 1-4-0 .894 3.40 ECHL 1-0-0 .968 1.00
Taylor 2-4-0 .893 2.93

Sexton enjoyed the most productive month of the season for the BSens, anchored by two big games (both losses) in the latter half of February. Nick Paul, who has had an awful season, enjoyed his best month, doubling his total numbers. None of the goaltenders were good, but in general their numbers are all quite similar–the primary difference is Taylor is aggressively mediocre while both Hogberg and Driedger are inconsistent at this level.

Streaks of note: Sieloff is on a 28-game pointless streak; Englund has gone 57 games without a goal (the entire season); Werek is pointless in 14-games (I warned back in October that he’d regress to the mean); Ciampini broke a 12-game goalless and 10-game pointless streak.

Special Teams

Powerplay 17.94%
This is the highest percentage of the season on a per-month basis; all the production has come from the first unit, as Kleinendorst’s tendency to populate the PP with unproductive favourites continues. So why the boost in production? The team has finally front-loaded the unit with the most creative players (Pokka’s addition, as mentioned above, has also been a godsend). The only question is: does Kleinendorst know that’s what he’s done?
Forward Usage: White, Sexton, Chlapik/Paul, Gagne
Defense Usage: Pokka/Harpur, Murray, Lajoie

On-ice for Goals Scored
Forwards: White, Sexton/Chlapik, Paul, Gagne
Defense: Pokka, Harpur, Murray

Penalty Kill 80.95%
The second highest monthly percentage of the season (just behind October); why the improvement? The defensive rotation didn’t really change, so the primary difference is at forward and Sexton and Flanagan (when healthy) are significant upgrades; McCormick’s absence has also helped (whatever his abilities are as a penalty killer, they haven’t been on display this season).
Forward Usage: White, Sexton, Blunden, McCormick/Flanagan
Defense Usage: Burgdoerfer, Sieloff, Englund, Harpur

On-ice for Fewest Goals Against
Forwards: Flanagan, White, Blunden, Sexton
Defense: Burgdoerfer, Harpur, Englund, Sieloff

The stubbornness of Kleinendorst is evident on special teams despite the improved results. He continues to ram Blunden, McCormick (when he’s in Belleville), and Reinhart onto the powerplay, while he overplays McCormick, Englund, and Burgdoerfer on the PK. One thing I was critical of in the past that’s improved, however, is the impact of forwards on the point for the PP–it improves when the forward’s partner is not Murray (only 30% of the goals he’s been on the ice for are sharing the point with a forward).

5-on-5 Kleinendorst has put together effective second lines, but continues wonky and bizarre first units (they’ve included Selleck, Blunden, Ciampini, McCormick, Rodewald, and Werek). Why talented players like White, Chlapik, and Sexton aren’t getting those top spots is beyond me. In terms of defensive combinations Kleinendorst refuses to load up his pairings, saddling talented players with those who can’t move the puck effectively.

Looking forward it will be interesting to see who remains (or comes) to Belleville and what sort of impact/usage they’ll get. This should be a time to play prospects a ton, but Kleinendorst can’t get that veteran needle out of his arm.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 28, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

After giving up 53 shots to Binghamton just a few days ago the BSens managed to make life easier for their goaltender, but otherwise played a listless game and got the result they deserved.

Boxscore
Shots: 20-25
PP: 0-1
PK: 0-1
Scoring chances: 4
Key saves: 1
The Goals
1. Binghamton – low shot through a crowd
2. Chlapik with a great one-timer via Lajoie
3. Binghamton PP – wide open wrist shot from the slot
4. Binghamton – Taylor isn’t set right and he’s beat far side through a screen
5. Binghamton – empty-net

Notable plays: Pokka turned into a pylon (first); Reinhart ruins a breakaway pass by putting himself offside (second); pointless fight by Selleck where he takes an extra penalty that results in a goal against (second); Binghamton beats Taylor five-hole from the blueline on the powerplay, but the ref doesn’t see it and they score 30 seconds later so it ultimately doesn’t matter (second); Paul can’t complete the pass on a 2-on-1 (second); Paul misses the net from the slot (third); Moutrey makes a nice power move to the net for a scoring chance (third);  Blunden throws a hit that hurts Sieloff (third; he’d stay in the game)

Nick Moutrey, who was shoehorned into the the Ian Cole trade by the Blue Jackets, made his debut. A brief, former teammate of Nick Paul’s in North Bay, he was a fairly average OHL player and hasn’t blossomed in the AHL (0.25 points-per-game to date)–scouts did not read the tea leaves very effectively with him. He’s big with decent speed, but doesn’t have great hands or head for the game and is someone the Sens should walk away from when the season is done.

Kleinendorst continued his bizarre distribution of ice time, playing rental goon Eric Selleck far too much and waiting until very late to push offensively (putting hands-of-stone Patrick Sieloff with these units due to defensive fears). It wasn’t a very entertaining game and there’s really nothing from it to get excited about.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 28, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The BSens extended their losing streak to four games, including their most embarrassing loss of the season in Binghamton. Chris Driedger, with his first AHL start since January 6th (!) was shelled in a game where, while he wasn’t perfect, it could have been much worse (a -32 shot differential). With the season already over and the game out of reach Kleinendorst…doubled-down on his veterans?

Boxscore
Shots: 21-53
PP: 0-2
PK: 6-9 (including two 5-on-3’s)
Scoring chances: 4
Key saves: 16
The Goals
1. Binghamton PP – Driedger beat by a wrister from the top of the circle
2. Binghamton PP – Burgdoerfer gets puck watching in the corner leaving two Devils wide open in front
3. Ciampini puts in a rebound
4. Binghamton – bad angle shot squeaks through the pads
5. Binghamton PP – nice little passing play
6. Binghamton – bangs in own rebound (Paul puck watching)

Notable plays: None. The game was virtually unwatchable.

The game against with Laval was much more entertaining. The BSens, for the most part, showed up in front of Hogberg. Newly acquired goon Eric Selleck (with a Randell-like three goals all season) was put on the first line, although Kleinendorst pulled back on his TOI eventually. It was a great game for Nick Paul–his first multi-goal and three-point game of the year–too little, too late I think, but outside of his own-goal his best game to date.

Boxscore
Shots: 30-30
PP: 1-3
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 11
Key saves: 8
The Goals
1. Laval – low wrister from a long way out
2. Paul with a great shot in tight on the short side
3. Laval – re-direction in front of Hogberg
4. PP Paul bangs in a rebound
5. Paul with a nice one-timer via Sexton
6. Laval – Paul deflects the puck into his own net
7. Laval – tipped in front

Notable plays: Sexton breakaway (first); Gagne with a great pass to Chlapik for a scoring chance (first); Lajoie hits the post (second); Hogberg stops a shorthanded breakaway (third).

One of the most frustrating things this season is how driven by fear Kleinendorst is. His goal is not to lose–how much this is based on his string of firings as a coach is hard to say. This inclination is clearest in his deployment of defensemen. His favourites–Sieloff, Burgdoerfer, and Englund–are a miserly combined 150-6-20-26 on the season–but any time the coach starts clenching they eat up the TOI. The only talented players immune to this tendency were Thomas Chabot and Ben Harpur, both of whom have spent insignificant time in the minors (and played exactly one game together, a 6-2 win back in November). Kleinendorst isn’t going anywhere the rest of the season, so for BSens fans it’s something we’ll have to suffer through the rest of the way.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 26, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

We have two more losses in the books for the BSens who are playing out the string for the remainder of the season. Colin White’s return to the team has him playing on the third line (for whatever reason); he is, at least, getting plenty of special teams time. First up, the loss to Hershey.

Boxscore
Shots: 28-24
PP: 0-2
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 14
Key saves: 12
The Goals
1. Hershey – untouched Bear beats Hogberg with a wrist shot from inside the faceoff dot
2. Hershey – wide open in the slot as Randell gets puck watching
3. Hershey – Empty-net from behind their own blueline

Notable plays: Blunden goes down and straight to the room, but returns soon after (second); Paul blows a 3-on-2 with an offside pass (second); Chlapik with a couple of great feeds for scoring chances (third).

This was not a particularly entertaining game and despite the relatively high volume of scoring chances the BSens had limited zone time and were stuck counter punching.

Belleville 4, Utica 5

One of the more entertaining games to watch of the season, despite the loss. Danny Taylor’s play, which had been on the decline since his stellar game February 2nd (against lackluster Binghamton; going 1-3-0 .893 2.94 since) was pulled after the first as the bottom fell out (Hogberg actually ate the loss however, as the BSens unexpectedly scored a bunch in the game). Speaking of Hogberg, since being pulled in the 7-4 loss to the Marlies his numbers are back in form (.916 2.55).

Ben Sexton had the team’s second hat trick of the season (Jordan Murray with the first way back in November), along with the second four-point game of the season (Jack Rodewald had the other, also in November). All of Belleville’s goals were on special teams (three powerplay goals and a shorty).

Boxscore
Shots: 34-38
PP: 3-8
PK: 2-2
Scoring chances: 13
Key saves: 3/4
The Goals
1. Utica – score off a scrambled faceoff
2. Utica – wrister from the top of the circle
3. Utica – Blunden runs a Utica player into Taylor and with part of the net open the Comets score
4. PP – Sexton’s cross-crease pass deflects in off the defender (5-on-3 goal)
5. PP – Paul bangs in White’s rebound
6. Utica – Hogberg baubles the puck and loses it and Utica bangs it in
7. Utica – a wide shot bounces off the back boards and the Comets bang it in
8. SH Sexton scores shooting on a 2-on-0 (Blunden skated behind him because he couldn’t keep up, so there wasn’t a pass option)
9. PP Sexton goes shelf from the dot (this was with the goalie pulled as well)

Notable plays: Utica has a 5-on-2 but overpass and don’t get a shot (first); 2-on-1 White can’t make the pass (first); Englund kicks in Paul’s rebound (third; disallowed, obviously, but it would have been his first goal of the year); with 20 seconds left in the game and needing a goal…the BSens make a line change? Bizarre.

One of the things I’ve been harping on all season is Kleinendorst’s preference to play favourites on the powerplay–of late this has been reduced to the second unit and that unit hasn’t scored a goal in 10 games (versus the first scoring eight). We’re also hitting absurd with or without you numbers for Max McCormick on the PK (12-13 over five games, or 92.3% (vs 170-221/76.9% with him))–Ary gave him a shoutout in his last prospect piece and I’ll just repeat what I’ve always said about him: in limited duty, in his role, he’s at best a marginal NHL player.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 21, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The BSens continue to tread water in the second half of the season, losing to the very beatable Laval and then winning against one of the best teams in the AHL. I did like the trade for Ville Pokka, albeit that it’s too late and the Sens have a long track record of abandoning assets like him in the off-season.

Belleville 2, Laval 3
boxscore
Shots: 27-27
PP: 0-6
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 9
Key saves: 5
The Goals
1. Rodewald tips in Murray’s shot (the play started with great work by Chlapik)
2. Laval SH – 2-on-1 keeps and scores (the odd-man rush because none of the forwards held back to cover Chlapik’s point)
3. Laval – Dunn stops skating and his check is wide open to bang in a centering pass
4. Laval SH – 3-on-2 scores from the slot
5. Gagne steals the puck and scores from in close

Notables: Sexton hits the post with an empty net (first); Sexton misses the net from the slot (first); great cross-ice backhand pass by Chlapik (first);Ciampini boarded (second; no call–crowd was gasping, but he kept playing); 2-on-1 no shot (second; McCormick can’t make a pass or shoot); Paul with a great chance off a rebound but can’t put it on net (second; a difficult play in this case); Chlapik hits the post (third); Chlapik set-up a couple of the scoring chances above with great passes.

After the first short-handed goal against Kleinendorst flipped which PP unit was first and second for the next few reps, which accomplished nothing (the second–now first–unit generated zero offense and the first–now second–gave up another shorty anyway). It’s a good example of Kleinendorst’s reactionary defense-first approach even when the team needs a goal.

Belleville 3 Toronto 1
boxscore
Shots: 25-26
PP: 0-3
PK: 3-3
Scoring chances: 10
Key saves: 3
The Goals
1. Randell scores on a nice feed to the slot from Englund
2. Sexton tips in Chlapik’s shot
3. Toronto – Rodewald lost in outer space as a wide open Marlie scores on a one-timer from the top of the circle
4. O’Brien scores on the empty-net

Notable plays: Gagne gets run over (first; he was fine); Englund misses an empty-net (second); O’B falls on a 2-on-1 (second).

AHL Live crashed for about three and a half minutes of the first period (I missed zero BSen shots or special teams play). This is the second game in a row in Belleville where there has been a streaming issue (albeit a shorter one than the last game against Toronto where half a period was lost). I’m not sure what the issue is, but at least it didn’t drag on as long.

Taylor had very little to do this game and in general has benefited from much better defensive play the last few games (the BSens used to give up a ton of shots, but have only given up over thirty once in the last fifteen).

As for the lineup, the newly acquired Ville Pokka played and did not disappoint. He shoots the puck a lot and can move the puck, which are two qualities lacking on the Sens blueline (“gritty” players like Englund, Sieloff, and Burgdoerfer have struggled all season to assist both the transition and possession). Other changes included Blunden returning from suspension (he wasn’t missed), White coming back from Ottawa (a welcome return), with McCormick going back up. It’s worth pointing out how well the team plays in the absence of Max McCormick: 3-0-0, +5 in goal differential, and a sparkling 87.5% on the PK. As I’ve said ad nauseum for years: McCormick is a decent third-line AHL forward who can do spot duty on the second line–that is it. When I see comments like this it’s either from old schoolers who think it’s twenty years ago or younger fans who let isolated plays and confirmation bias sway them. The numbers–and performance–doesn’t lie.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 17, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The BSens rounded out their week with a loss to the Comets. Because the BSen broadcast was out of sync with the video I wound up listening to Utica’s play-by-play guy, who was so laconic he reminded me of comedian Steven Wright (probably an obscure reference these days–my memory of him is cemented by his role in Reservoir Dogs). The Tweeted BSens lineup was a bit off as Blunden was a late scratch (Erkamps was inserted as a 7th D, but barely played).

Belleville 3, Utica 4
boxscore
Shots: 27-24
PP 1-3
PK: 1-3
Scoring chances: 8
Key saves: 8
The Goals
1. Utica – rebound banged in (wide open)–Reinhart in no man’s land defensively
2. Utica PP – puck bounces off O’Brien’s stick to the Comets and they score from the slot
3. PP Paul tips in Murray’s shot
4. O’Brien with a one-timer off a nice feed from Lajoie
5. Utica – Taylor gives up a fat rebound that Utica finds
6. McCormick fires in Gagne’s rebound
7. Utica PP – BSens leave two Comets alone in front of the net and the puck is banged in

Notable Plays: McCormick misses the net from the slot (first); Harpur hits the post (first); Reinhart misses an empty net on the powerplay (first); Burgdoerfer with a pass to no one (second); Utica goal called off for goaltender interference (second); Randell blocks a shot with his wrist (second).

This was only the 10th game of the season where the BSens actually outshot their opponent (their record when doing so is now 5-5-0). Danny Taylor came back to earth (he wasn’t terrible, but four goals on twenty-four shots isn’t lighting the world on fire).

There were various Kleinendorstian oddities in the game–Tyler Randell (he of the 1 real goal in 40 games) was inserted on the PP for some reason (the last time this happened was December 28th, but his last time as part of the regular rotation was a two-game experiment back in early December). Naturally this did nothing to help the powerplay (the team has scored zero PP goals with Randell on the ice), which also included McCormick (whose limited effectiveness on the powerplay I’ve gone over before–those numbers have only gotten worse, incidentally). Speaking of special teams, I’m not clear on why Harpur has been relegated to the second unit in favour of Murray–Harpur has much better numbers on the powerplay.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 12, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another twosome of games to comment on. The up and down season of Marcus Hogberg continues, as in an unexpected start (Taylor was ill) he earned Belleville’s first shutout of the season, and in the following game got shelled before getting pulled (not all the goals were his fault, but he needs to be better). This struggle with consistency took him over a month to sort out in the ECHL while being a regular starter–how long it takes in the AHL remains to be seen, but no one should fear he’s another bust like Matt O’Connor (whose AHL struggles are now ECHL struggles–the NCAA FA hasn’t had a shutout at either level, incidentally)–it’s far too early to judge. McCormick missed this game because he was in Ottawa and the team missed him not at all.

Belleville 2, Rochester 0
boxscore
Shots: 26-33
PP: 0-3 (5-on-3)
PK: 0-1
Scoring chances: 8
Key saves: 9
The Goals
1. Flanagan scores short side as the Amerks goaltender goes down early and is slightly off the post
2. Reinhart empty-netter as Blunden flips the puck ahead and he wins the foot race

Notable plays: Gagne misses the net on a great chance from just above the hashmarks (first); great feed by Chlapik, but Paul shoots it wide (first); Sexton misses the net on a 3-on-2 (first); O’Brien shoots the puck over the net on a 3-on-1 (second); Chlapik hits the post (second); a weird penalty shot call for Rochester, but they hit the post (second); 2-on-1 but Paul can’t complete the pass (third); two of the scoring chances were off great feeds from Chlapik.

Belleville 4, Toronto 7

Unfortunately both McCormick and Blunden were returned to the team for this game (Jordan Murray also returned from injury–inexplicably he replaced the highly productive Ben Harpur on the first powerplay unit and helped it not at all).

I missed the first 10:34 of the game because it was not broadcast due to technical difficulties (I missed the first three goals of the game and 10 total shots on goal–3 by Belleville–but no penalties). This problem seems to have been in the arena because as of this writing I haven’t seen highlights posted. The BSens had a season high in scoring chances (one more than their 3-2 win over Rochester a month ago), but were sloppy defensively, didn’t get a great night from Hogberg, and were guilty (again!) of taking selfish and pointless penalties in the third period (more about that below). Tyler Randell, incidentally, scored his first goal against a goalie this season (39 games in)–another quality FA signing from Randy Lee.

boxscore
Shots: 25-30
PP: 0-3
PK: 3-4 (5 min major)
Scoring chances: 16
Key saves: 6/3 (keeping in mind I missed seven shots on Hogberg in the first)
The Goals
1. Toronto – point shot (I only have the BSens Twitter feed to describe it)
2. Toronto – tap-in or one-timer via a centering pass (as above)
3. Reinhart (no description provided)
4. Sexton bangs in Chlapik’s pass
5. Toronto – both Englund and Gagne are guilty of puck-watching as a rebound is banged in by an uncontested Marlie in the slot
6. Paul bangs in a rebound
7. Toronto – one-timer from the top of the circle
8. Toronto – one-timer from the slot
9. Toronto – Hogberg beat five-hole as he slides from post-to-post
10. Toronto PP – Taylor beat by a clean shot from the top of the circle
11. Randell scores on a nice feed from Reinhart

Notable plays: two great scoring chances were via passes from Chlapik (first); Burgdoerfer falls awkwardly and struggles to get off the ice, but returned (first);
Blunden shoots it over an empty net (second); Paul misses the net with an open side (second); Chlapik accidentally runs over a referee (second; he was fine); Sieloff misses an empty net (second); Blunden targets a Marlies’ head and is rightfully kicked out of the game (third; the org should have no tolerance for that, but we’ll just hear excuses from them); Gagne gets drilled (third; clean hit and he seemed fine); Flanagan hits the post (third).

I mentioned the dumb penalties and this is a season-long trend by the BSens–the players guilty of taking them are all “leaders”–Blunden, McCormick, O’Brien, etc. These are undisciplined, selfish plays and there have been no consequences from the coaching staff whatsoever. This approach is something we saw from Luke Richardson as well (vets could do whatever they wanted). There’s no excuse for this–there ought to be even less tolerance for veterans. It’s worth pointing out that in games where the BSens have given up two or few powerplays they are 5-1 on the season (giving up only 13 goals, which is far below their norm)–the arithmetic is pretty simple.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 10, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Back in late December I took a look at the BSens powerplay and with less than thirty games left in the season it’s time to take a look at the team’s PK. The raw percentage for the team is terrible (77.2%, tied for 28th in the league, but giving up the second most goals with 49–only Laval is worse). There’s nothing unique about the BSens strategy on the PK (a fairly passive box), although as the season has gone on they’ve often chosen to use just two or three defensemen on the rotation when trusted players are injured.

In the absence of useful stats from the AHL what we can do is look at deployment (in this case a shift count)–who is being used and to what level of success? Given injuries and call-ups there’s been significant variety so there’s a lot to break down. First, let’s look at usage broken down by shifts-per-game (minimum 20 shifts and averaging 1 per game):
Forwards
Sexton 4.4
McCormick 3.97
Kelly 3.93
Blunden 3.77
O’Brien 3.71
Flanagan 3.0
White 2.84
Perron 2.02
Paul 1.93
Randell 1.86
Rodewald 1.18

Defense
Sieloff 4.7
Harpur 4.66
Englund 4.51
Burgdoerfer 4.23
Jaros 2.58
Erkamps 1.00

Small sample size is something to keep in mind, as Sexton has only played in 10 games, Flanagan 14, Harpur 15, etc. There’s a clear preference on defense (four primaries with a regular sprinkling of Jaros) and at forward (four–five with the departed Kelly–getting the heaviest usage).

So that’s frequency, but what about effectiveness? Here’s how they stack up based on goals against per shift:
Forwards
O’Brien, White, Paul, Sexton 0.06
Blunden, Flanagan 0.07
Randell 0.08
Rodewald 0.11
McCormick, Kelly, Perron 0.12

Defense
Erkamps 0.06
Sieloff 0.07
Harpur 0.10
Burgdoerfer 0.11
Englund 0.13
Jaros 0.16

The small sample size (in this case infrequency of use) means we can’t trust Erkamps’ numbers, but in general this is a fair if broad representation of relative success. Clearly this doesn’t quite match up with usage, so here they are together:
Forwards
Sexton 4.4/0.06
McCormick 3.97/0.12
Kelly 3.93/0.12
Blunden 3.77/0.07
O’Brien 3.71/0.06
Flanagan 3.0/0.07
White 2.84/0.06
Perron 2.02/0.12
Paul 1.93/0.06
Randell 1.86/0.08
Rodewald 1.18/0.11

Defense
Sieloff 4.7/0.07
Harpur 4.66/0.10
Englund 4.51/0.13
Burgdoerfer 4.23/0.11
Jaros 2.58/0.16
Erkamps 1.00/0.06

For the most part with the blueliners’ success follows usage, but at forward Kleinendorst’s favouritism impacts what he does, as Kelly and McCormick play more than their effectiveness justifies. Looking at this you’d say the top four PK forwards should be Sexton, O’Brien, Paul, and Flanagan (White is in the NHL, but if not, he bumps Flanagan), with the top-four D remaining as is with some Erkamps experimentation to see if his ability is sustainable. How does this hold up to actual pairings? We can break down who helps or hinders by seeing results depending on partners, so let’s take a look at the most frequent combinations (the dates in brackets aren’t necessarily absolute timeframes–they can also indicate the heaviest usage; the numbers are shifts vs goals against):

Forward Pairs
McCormick-O’Brien 0.06 100-6 (Nov-Jan)
Perron-White 0.05 39-2 (Nov-Jan)
Kelly-Blunden 0.08 34-3 (Dec-Jan)
Randell-Blunden 0.08 23-2 (Dec)
McCormick-Sexton 0.09 22-2 (Oct-Nov)
Paul-Rodewald 0.05 19-1 (Oct)
Kelly-Randell 0.13 15-2 (Dec)
Paul-O’Brien 0.00 14-0 (Oct-Nov)
Sexton-Blunden 0.08 12-1 (Feb)
McCormick-White 0.16 12-2 (Nov)
White-Flanagan 0.00 11-0 (Jan)
McCormick-Paul 0.09 11-1 (Oct)
Perron-Flanagan 0.00 10-0 (Jan)
O’Brien-Blunden 0.00 9-0 (Oct)
McCormick-Flanagan 0.11 9-1 (Jan-Feb)
Perron-O’Brien 0.12 8-1 (Oct-Nov)
Perron-Randell 0.12 8-1 (Oct/Dec)
Perron-Paul 0.14 7-1 (Oct/Jan)
McCormick-Blunden 0.14 7-1 (Oct/Jan)
Flanagan-Blunden 0.14 7-1 (Jan)
Sexton-O’Brien 0.00 6-0 (Oct)
O’Brien-Randell 0.00 6-0 (Oct-Nov)
McCormick-Randell 0.20 5-1 (Dec)
Paul-Sexton 0.40 5-2 (Nov)
Paul-White 0.00 4-0 (Dec)
McCormick-Rodewald 0.25 4-1 (Nov)
Perron-Kelly 0.50 4-2 (Dec)

While some of this bewildering variety is due to injury and experimentation, it’s far above what any coach should want in terms of stability and consistency. Kleinendorst has feels a compulsive need to play aging vets like Kelly beyond the bounds of reason. It’s also difficult to understand the decision to either get away from or stick with particular combinations. Conclusions: White, O’Brien, and (so far) Sexton make their partners better, while McCormick tends to be a drag on his partner and Perron is someone who reflects his partner (for good or ill). Paul, who has mostly played well in this role, was largely removed from the PK in mid-November for no apparent reason. In White’s absence and looking at the data, what we should be seeing is Sexton, O’Brien, Paul, and Flanagan getting the bulk of the time (we already know Paul-O’Brien works from the above).

Defense Partners
Englund-Burgdoerfer 0.14 87-13*
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer 0.08 69-6
Harpur-Burgdoerfer 0.06 43-3 (Dec+)
Englund-Sieloff 0.05 37-2
Englund-Jaros 0.17 35-6
Sieloff-Jaros 0.05 18-1 (Oct-Dec)
Englund-Erkamps 0.00 17-0 (Oct-Nov)
Sieloff-Harpur 0.13 15-2
Murray-Jaros 0.14 14-2 (Nov-Jan)
Englund-Harpur 0.16 12-2 (Nov-Jan)
Murray-Erkamps 0.00 10-0 (Nov-Dec)
Englund-Murray 0.20 10-2 (Nov-Dec)
Murray-Burgdoerfer 0.22 9-2 (Nov-Dec)
Lajoie-Jaros 0.00 6-0 (Jan)
*the duo had a horrific January (34-9), making them 43-4 otherwise (0.09)

A few things become apparent looking at it this way: Sieloff makes everyone better, with Harpur helping to a lesser degree; Burgdoerfer and Murray are drags on whoever they play with, while Englund’s impact seems more of a neutral factor–he can’t make up for his partner, but he doesn’t hurt either. Jaros is heavily effected by who he plays with (good with Lajoie and Sieloff, struggles elsewhere). Looking at what’s been tried I’d put Sieloff back with Englund and keep Burgdoerfer with Harpur until Jaros is healthy (and why not mix in some Erkamps so you can find out if the guy is actually a decent penalty killer or not?).

A few other player-specific comments:
-White, who has easily been the team’s best penalty killer, only started getting top rotation in January–Kleinendorst is so reluctant to trust younger players that even with a first-rounder like that he needed two months of watching before pulling the trigger
-Rodewald’s usage fell off at the same time as Paul’s, but his numbers aren’t nearly as good suggesting this was a smart coaching decision
-Randell received a huge spike in usage in December (60% of his deployment for the year) which has since dropped off to his more typical levels
-A third of Erkamps’ shifts come from a single game in October (4-2 loss to Syracuse) and over half from October in general–so buyer beware, but that’s not a reason to ram Murray into the PK (which was what Kleinendorst switched too)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 7, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another pair of games are in the books so here are my thoughts (incidentally, my PK piece is almost done–all the leg work is completed, I just need to wrap it up). They were games of contrast, as the BSens looked competent against the struggling Devils, but were outclassed by the speedy and aggressive Sound Tigers (wtf is a sound tiger anyway?).

Belleville 3, Binghamton 2 (OT)
boxscore
Shots: 31-38
PP: 1-3
PK: 4-5
Scoring chances: 9
The Goals
1. Binghamton – low wrist shot from the point is tipped in
2. PP – Paul nice tip in front
3. Binghamton PP – rebound banged in (Blunden is too slow to get there for coverage)
4. Erkamps floats one in through a screen
Werek scored the only goal in the shootout (as the fourth shooter)

It was another solid effort from Danny Taylor, who seems to be back to his expected form (sitting out nine games either allowed him to get healthy or get his game in order–hey Randy Lee–move the guy while you can!). Sexton looked good in his return to the lineup, although we still saw too much Blunden and Randell remains dressed (always a failing). Sieloff’s return to the lineup also helped; ECHLer Corrin may not have played a shift in the game (by the time I started looking he wasn’t playing).

Notable plays: Sexton hit the crossbar (second); Taylor bails out Burgdoerfer (second); Rodewald misses the net on a 2-on-1 (nice pass by Chlapik; second–thus this Tweet); Gagne scores on a tip, but it’s waived off (goalie interference; second); Rodewald hurt via a crosscheck in front of the net (second; he would miss the next game); Sieloff misses the net in the slot (second); Taylor bails out Englund who got turned into a pylon (second); Chlapik misses the net from the high slot (third); Harpur passes to the wrong team (OT).

Belleville 1, Bridgeport 3
boxscore
Shots: 25-27
PP: 1-2
PK: 5-5 (including a 4-on-3 and 5-on-3)
Scoring chances: 6
The Goals
1. Bridgeport – bang in a loose puck
2. Bridgeport – wrist shot from the slot
3. Bridgeport – cross crease pass banged in (Blunden just can’t keep up on the backcheck)
4. PP Chlapik bangs in a centering pass

Taylor was solid in net, but there was no need to play him in back-to-back games (what’s the point of having three other goaltenders if you aren’t going to play them?). Kleinendorst may be feeling the heat to get the team into the playoffs, but Taylor hasn’t shown any ability to win in this scenario so it smacks of desperation.

Bridgeport showed great speed and pressure, which was fun to watch (don’t let the close shot clock fool you, this game was not close). I will say the camera set-up for their arena is terrible–it’s so far back it made it really hard to see the jersey numbers; the Bridgeport play-by-play guy said what no one is saying in Belleville: the lack of discipline by team leaders is a huge problem (both Blunden and McCormick were guilty of taking selfish, stupid penalties). Once again I’m not sure how much or if Corrin played.

Almost no notable plays: Blunden erases a potential powerplay by taking a penalty on the delayed call (second); Gagne with a great deke through traffic that’s stymied by the goaltender; O’Brien misses the net on a 2-on-1 with Chlapik; McCormick takes a dumb penalty in the third (a pointless crosscheck off a faceoff).

Filip Chlapik’s return has been a blessing for the underperforming Nick Paul and the team’s powerplay, but the BSens are 1-4-1 and despite being in an awful division show no signs of the kind of run they’d need to make it to the playoffs (barring the hockey gods sending Thomas Chabot back).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 6, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment