The attempt to cap clean to sign Shane Pinto seems to have boiled down to just Mathieu Joseph (according to Bruce Garrioch), as there’s limited interest in Brannstrom (something not helped by Columbus desperately trying to move a defenseman). If that’s true, his play early on this season helps making that move easier (even if the rest of the NHL know they have Dorion over a barrel–only eight teams can currently afford to take him). This entire mess, including Joseph‘s contract, is of Dorion’s own making, so they are once again paying for his inability to properly assess talent.

As for the team itself, it’s an unremarkable 3-3-0. It’s too early to say much of anything other than the early returns on Tarasenko have been good (leads the team in points), Kubalik has been awful (no points), and without their top-four the Sens struggle (both games without Zub have been disasters–giving up 11 goals–collectively Brannstrom, Hamonic, and JBD can’t fill the void). The only surprise for me is Kubalik, but it’s too soon to be worried. November has been the breaking point for D. J. Smith’s seasons, so we have to wait and see.

Waiving MacEwen, whose three-year deal makes him immune to being claimed, only clears out 775k for the Sens in their effort to sign Pinto (he and JBD just aren’t enough combined: 1.58). MacEwen, who scored twice in his debut for the BSens, means Imama sits (since they have the same role but MacEwen is both a better fighter and player). The veteran clog in Belleville remains a problem Dorion created for himself and barring an early, major injury, the team will have to make a deal to get out of it. For now the team has rotated the scratches between Imama, Pilon, and Currie, but that’s not tenable for the whole season.

I’ve watched parts of the BSens last two games (their 5-2 loss to Lehigh Valley and their 5-4 win over Laval), but the entirety of their first game (3-0 over Hershey). I made a few notes/observations and we’ll start broadly: the team had terrible breakouts and structure and were getting killed on faceoffs; the second PP unit looked better than the first (which struggled badly). The team played with seven defensemen and initially JBD got the nod over Thomson, but it was a rough night for JBD so that switched after a bad penalty. Sogaard was excellent. Other specifics:
-Ostapchuk got run over by McIlrath
-Fizer was stopped on a breakaway (he has great speed)
-Reinhardt scored a very nice goal
-Guenette struggled being the top D on the pp
-Matinpalo had a nice one-timer via Thomson
-Great pass by Jarventie to Matinpalo (although he didn’t score)
-Pilon breakaway via a Guenette pass (he was stopped)
-Sokolov hit a post

The first line of Smejkal–Highmore–Sokolov has not worked (no apparent chemistry), so I expect it to change. I feel like coach Bell has a good sense of the bottom of his roster, but doesn’t know what to do with the top. It’s incredibly early in the season so too soon to judge player or coach performance and I expect juggling to continue for awhile.

This article was written by Peter Levi

October 25, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Let’s start off with the latest news before we dig into it: Matthew Boucher has returned to the BSens on a PTO. Boucher, who joined the team last year on a PTO (cf), already has an ECHL contract with Trois-Rivieres (Montreal’s affiliate). Last season he was a useful if unspectacular player, but I have no idea where he fits in the team’s crowded lineup (as a PTO, there’s no real commitment to him). In addition to his signing, we have further roster updates, with Toure thankfully loaned back to the OHL (now the third signed blueliner playing in junior, along with Hamara and Donovan) and Merilainen joining Sinclair in the ECHL (with the Allen Americans, who are based in Texas).

The Roster

I’ll go through each player in detail below, but we’ll start with the basics. Because position listings aren’t always accurate, I’ve indicated right/lefthanded and noted centers via the BSens site; I’ve also kept both reassigned goalies on the list just for clarity of depth; veteran contracts are in bold, while AHL/PTO contracts are in italics:

Forwards (16): Jarventie (L), Smejkal (L), Crookshank (L), Ostapchuk (CL), Reinhardt (L), Imama (L), Highmore (CL), Daoust (CL), Currie (CR), Pilon (CR), Sokolov (R), T. Boucher (R), Fizer (R; AHL), McPhee (L; AHL), Saulnier (CL; AHL), M. Boucher (L; PTO)

Defense (9): Guenette (R), Thomson (R), JBD (R), Matinpalo (R), Kleven (L), Heatherington (L), Larsson (L), Sebrango (L), MacKinnon (R; AHL)

Goalies (4): Sogaard, Mandolese, Merilainen, Sinclair (AHL)

Keep in mind that expected AHLer Chartier (CL) remains in Ottawa and would add another forward to the tally, but with four players on AHL-deals/PTO, the crowding is something of an illusion. The blueline is genuinely congested; despite the numbers, the team has only two (or three, depending on how Kleven pans out) who move the puck. That aside, who are you sitting? It feels like Sebrango is being buried (which was his status in Detroit), but I’m not sure how Matinpalo gets ice time with JBD in Belleville. I assume the Sens will want to move at least one of these players (JBD, waived around the league, is hard to move) to free up roster space.

While I don’t think it’s indicative yet, the scratches for the BSens’ first game: Currie, T. Boucher, Daoust, McPhee, Sebrango, and MacKinnon, with Mandolese backing up [Boucher is injured]. On paper that leaves them 12 forwards and 7 defensemen, so there’s something I’m missing.

Coaching/Management

The major change for the BSens happened in the middle of last season when Troy Mann was fired. His then assistant, former Ottawa 67 David Bell, took over, and was retained after his 14-8-6 record. Bell’s previous head coaching job was in 2016-17 in the OHL, which was only his second, and he’s never lasted more than one season (his coaching career beginning in 04-05, right after he retired). Maybe the 46-year old has been the victim of unfortunate circumstances, maybe not (he’s been on Belleville’s staff since 2019-20). The team’s GM, Ryan Bowness, joined the org last year and was very good at repairing the damage Pierre Dorion inflicted in the off-season. Let’s just briefly lay out his recent career:
2016-17 OHL Niagara 23-35-6 head coach
2017-19 AHL Ontario Reign assistant coach (Mike Stothers)
2019-24 AHL Belleville assistant coach (Troy Mann)
2024 AHL Belleville 14-8-6 head coach
Like so many ex-player coaches, Bell was a fighter during his career, although it’s clear that background says nothing about the kind of coach he is.
Besides the head coach, assistant coach Sexton is gone and Dennis (head coach in Kitchener last year) and McIver (an assistant in the ECHL last year) joined; one of the three development coaches (Brownrigg) is gone, while ex-Sens Donovan and Winchester remain.

The Players

Rookies are in green, veterans are in red, AHL or PTO players are in italics. I’ve included selective NHL experience (where I think it’s relevant for either context or call-ups) and AHL careers (for context):

Forwards
Matthew Highmore LW, DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA
21-22 NHL 46-5-7-12 0.26
22-23 SPR 68-19-42-61 0.89
AHL career: 165-50-75-125 0.76
NHL experience (Chi/Van):139-12-15-27 0.19
His time as a peripheral NHLer seems to be over and he’ll be looking to repeat as an impactful AHL producer.
Egor Sokolov LW, DOB 00 (age 23), 6’3, 2-61/20
21-22 BEL 64-19-31-50 0.78
22-23 BEL 70-21-38-59 0.84
There’s not much more for him to prove at this level so we should expect him to dominate. For the Sens this is either the year where moving him to the big club next year is inevitable or you move him.
Roby Jarventie LW, DOB 02 (age 21), 6’2, 2-33/20
21-22 BEL 70-11-22-33 0.47
22-23 BEL 40-16-14-30 0.75
This is his first AHL season where he’s not the youngest player on the team; he should get ample opportunity and I expect him to score at a high level.
Rourke Chartier CL, DOB 96 (age 27), 5-149/14 SJ, signed FA
21-22 BEL 33-10-15-25 0.75
22-23 BEL 40-20-8-28 0.70
AHL career: 222-62-73-135 0.61
A productive player when healthy (which isn’t often); I expect him to be sent down as soon as the Pinto situation is resolved.
Angus Crookshank LW, DOB 99 (age 24), 5-126/18
21-22 BEL injured
22-23 BEL 71-26-21-47 0.66
Look for a step forward in production; if he can’t do that, it’s going to be hard for him to push his way into the NHL (it’s not that he’s expected to be a top-six player, but as a pest he needs to be an offensive threat given his size).
Garrett Pilon CR, DOB 98 (age 25), 3-87/16 Wsh, signed FA
21-22 HER 60-17-25-42 0.70
22-23 HER 53-11-18-29 0.54
AHL career: 259-60-96-156 0.60
Took a step back last season and will be looking to recover; a puzzling signing, although he does fit Dorion’s ‘son-of’ fetish.
Cole Reinhardt LW, DOB 00 (age 23), 6’0, 6-181/20
21-22 BEL 70-15-15-30 0.43
22-23 BEL 66-11-23-34 0.52
Has settled into his role as an energy player, but I’m not sure there’s enough talent to be more than that at this level.
Brennan Saulnier CL, DOB 93 (age 30), undrafted NCAA, signed FA
21-22 LVP 43-3-3-6 0.14
22-23 BEL 30-6-9-15 0.50
Served as a useful spare part for part of last season, so he’ll look to continue that here (don’t get exited about his production last season, as that was a product of the injury plague the organization went through).
Matthew Boucher LW, DOB 97 (age 26), undrafted QMJHL, PTO
21-22 ECHL 21-13-10-23 1.09
22-23 BEL 50-6-10-16 0.32
Consistently inconsistent last year, which is why he wasn’t originally retained; if he stays he’ll need to even out his performance.
Bokondji Imama LW, DOB 96 (age 27), 6-180/15 TB, signed FA
21-22 TUC 54-5-7-12 0.22
22-23 TUC 50-5-10-15 0.30
AHL career: 257-26-36-62 0.24
Signed to fight, so that’s what he needs to do.
Philippe Daoust CL, DOB 01 (age 22), 6-158/20
21-22 QMJHL 38-24-23-47 1.23
22-23 BEL 9-2-5-7 0.77
We still don’t know what he is at this level, having missed most of last season due to injury.
Josh Currie RW, DOB 92 (age 31), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA
21-22 KHL 48-10-16-26 0.54
22-23 KHL 48-3-9-12 0.25
AHL career: 321-113-98-211 0.66
Seems to be on the downside of his career, which made the signing an odd one (feels a bit like the Jayce Hawryluk signing last year); I’m curious if he’s dinged up or being scratched his first game.
Graham McPhee LW, DOB 98 (age 25), 5-149/16 Edm, acquired via trade
21-22 BAK 33-5-6-11 0.33
22-23 BAK/BEL 41-1-5-6 0.14
Must be good in the room, because there’s no evidence he’s good on the ice.
Jiri Smejkal LW, DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted WHL, signed FA
21-22 Liiga 44-25-20-45 1.02
22-23 SHL 49-23-20-43 0.88
I’m interested to see how he’s used and how he performs at this level, as he hasn’t played hockey in North America in seven years. There’s a lot to like about his potential, but at his age he has to prove himself now.
Tarun Fizer CR, DOB 01 (age 22), undrafted WHL, signed FA
21-22 WHL 35-17-34-51 1.45
22-23 ECHL 62-27-23-50 0.80
I don’t know if he can play a depth role, but that’s what’s available for him here.
Zack Ostapchuk CL, DOB 03 (age 21), 2-39/21
21-22 WHL 60-26-17-43 0.71
22-23 WHL 55-31-36-67 1.22
I’m expecting some growing pains and a depth role to start, but he’s the kind of player who should be able to handle a third-line role.
Tyler Boucher RW, DOB 03 (age 20), 1-10/21
21-22 OHL 24-7-7-14 0.58
22-23 OHL 21-10-7-17 0.81
Can he play at this level, and if so, how effectively?

It’s a weird forward group whose arrangement is not clear to me. Excluding the AHL/PTO players (who would all play at the bottom of the lineup), let’s try to break it down from top-six to bottom six:
Top-six: Smejkal, Jarventie, Sokolov, Highmore, Crookshank, Currie, Chartier (still in Ottawa)
Bottom-six: Imama, T. Boucher, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt, Daoust, Pilon
On paper there’s plenty of talent as the roster, buoyed by an excellent 2020 draft (2021 has arrived, but there’s not much there; 2022 and 2023 may be even worse). I feel like the Sens signed several older players either on the downside of their careers (Currie, Pilon) or whose careers have flatlined (Imama), but time will tell. In theory the prospects should be able to shoulder much of the offensive load this year.
[Lines in game one: Smejkal-Highmore-Sokolov; Crookshank-Jarventie-Pilon; Imama-Ostapchuk-Reinhardt; Saulnier, Fizer; Heatherington-Guenette; Larsson-Matinpalo; Kleven-JBD; Thomson]

Defense
Lassi Thomson DR, DOB 00 (age 23), 1-19/19
21-22 BEL 44-10-16-26 0.59
22-23 BEL 56-7-36-33 0.59
After a weird week spent in Anaheim after being lost on waivers, I expect him to run the powerplay and he should put up career numbers.
Maxence Guenette DR, DOB 01 (age 22), 7-187/19
21-22 BEL 48-6-13-19 0.40
22-23 BEL 72-5-35-40 0.56
His primary roster competition is Thomson, which is a healthy thing. The odds are strong he’ll be another Max Lajoie–good at this level, but not quite able to handle full-time NHL duty
Jacob Larsson DL, DOB 97 (age 26), 1-27/15 Ana, signed FA
21-22 SDG 55-2-13-15 0.27
22-23 BEL 55-4-13-17 0.31
AHL career: 191-10-47-57 0.30
NHL experience (Ana/Ott): 172-3-21-24 0.14
Despite his age he’s clearly in the twilight of his North American career–he played his way out of the NHL in Anaheim and he’s an unremarkable AHL player. I have no idea why the Sens brought him back.
Dillon Heatherington DL (age 28), DOB 95, 2-50/13 Clb, signed FA
21-22 BEL 45-2-11-13 0.29
22-23 BEL 60-4-11-15 0.25
AHL career: 418-19-98-117 0.28
NHL experience (Dal/Ott): 23-0-2-2
An unremarkable older, defense-first blueliner. How useful is he?
Donovan Sebrango, DL, DOB 02 (age 21), 3-63/20 Det, via trade
2021-22 GRG 66-1-6-7 0.10
2022-23 GRG 39-4-3-7 0.18
Only twenty-one, the signs are not positive the Sens have any faith in him.
Jacob Bernard-Docker DR, DOB 00 (age 23), 1-26/18
21-22 BEL 58-2-7-9 0.15
22-23 BEL 41-2-4-6 0.15
NHL experience (Ott): 33-0-2-2 0.06
It’s difficult to think of a less impressive player. Being an adequate defender in the AHL is the only positive.
Ryan MacKinnon DR, DOB 94 (age 29), undrafted QMJHL, signed FA
2021-22 LVP 25-2-1-3 0.12
2022-23 BRI 20-0-3-3 0.15
Not sure what the thought process was in signing him.
Tyler Kleven DL, DOB 02 (age 21), 2-44/20
21-22 NCAA 38-7-3-10 0.26
22-23 NCAA 35-8-10-18 0.51
Highly touted pick will get a chance to show his stuff at this level, which is excellent, as there was no need to force him into the NHL.
Nikolas Matinpalo DR, DOB 98 (age 25), undrafted Liiga, signed FA
21-22 Liiga 50-4-4-8 0.16
22-23 Liiga 51-7-9-16 0.31
Has never played in North America and I have no idea what his skill cap is–can he move the puck?

The blueline arrangement seems simple. You’d think Guenette, Thomson, and JBD play the right side with Kleven and veterans Heatherington and Larsson the left. That said, what’s the point of signing Matinpalo in if he’s not going to play? The assumption must be that JBD will be riding the pine as the 7th defensemen in the NHL, so the situation is temporary. Sebrango and MacKinnon are extras, so don’t factor in. Despite the number of bodies, this group is very thin on talent and I suspect the team will struggle transitioning the play out of their own zone.

Goaltenders
Mads Sogaard DOB 00 (age 23), 2-37/19
21-22 BEL 19-14-1 .908
22-23 BEL 6-10-2 .893
NHL experience (Ott): 9-7-3 .889
Kevin Mandolese DOB 00 (age 23), 6-157/18
21-22 BEL 9-5-0 .901
22-23 BEL 6-8-3 .890
Leevi Merilainen DOB 02 (age 21), 3-71/20
21-22 OHL 31-16-5 0.891
22-23 Liiga 18-13-7 .917
Mark Sinclair DOB 96 (age 27), undrafted NCAA, signed FA
2021-22 NCAA 0-0-1 .905
2022-23 ECHL 19-7-3 .915

The goaltending situation is very straightforward, with Sogaard the expected starter and his buddy Mandolese the backup. With Merilainen in the system, there’s a quick call should the starting duo struggle or injuries occur (both have been prone to injury). This is a very young group, which is not dissimilar to last season, except the team has more support in case of injuries or poor performance.

With Belleville’s season opening tonight I’ve run out of racetrack to do projections, so we’ll save that for another installment.

This article was written by Peter Levi

October 14, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

The opening roster decisions are nearly complete. As expected, Josh Bailey was released from his PTO (despite the injury to Norris, there was never cap room for him so this was simply an audition for the league), while Max Guenette and Jiri Smejkal were sent to Belleville. The latter’s fate is probably not deserved (albeit expected), but Smejkal was always in a difficult spot because of the cap situation–anecdotally he made a good impression and both the wingers ahead of him on the fourth-line aren’t NHL players, so are easily displaced if the team ever gets out of cap hell. Smejkal was skating with the team as part of the lineup at practice the same day he was re-assigned due to an injury to MacEwen. These changes occurred the day after Roby Jarventie, Mads Sogaard, Dillon Heatherington, and Tarun Fizer (who I guess had only been re-assigned on paper previously) were cut. None of these moves are surprises, although like Smejkal, Jarventie deserved a better fate (albeit, I’ve argued there’s no point in keeping him in the NHL as a depth player).

Speaking of the lineup, if Ottawa sticks with the lines D. J. Smith was rolling yesterday my hopes are dim indeed. His comment that everything changes without two of his top-three centers is reasonable and I don’t expect him to have Joseph on the second line (how could he?). You could argue the Sens are entering the season with three AHL-centers and that just won’t get it done. Dorion’s self-inflicted cap problems are making a mess of what’s supposed to be an exciting opening to the season.

Marc Methot, known for his bold predictions (that he sometimes abandons), has said without Josh Norris this season the Sens don’t make the playoffs. That’s a reasonable opinion to have. For the Sens to thrive without Norris they’d need Pinto and Greig to take a step forward (or a prospect to take a giant leap forward). My theory is that Rourke Chartier escaped AHL-oblivion by serving as a placeholder for Pinto. Along with the gap in the #2 spot, the team also has an embarrassing fourth-line and those wasted minutes do add up.

As expected, the Ducks have put Lassi Thomson on waivers entering the regular season. The question fans will have is: will the Sens claim him back? I would [and four hours after I posted this, so would the Sens], but that aside, I don’t know what the Sens will do. This reminds me of is the Wade Brookbank saga, which goes back a long time (before I was writing about the Sens). Brookbank was a big (6’4), tough, undrafted defensemen signed as a free agent by the Sens in the summer of 2001 (the Marshall Johnston-era). Brookbank, who could only fight, was claimed by Nashville off waivers in 2003; he was traded to Vancouver two months later, claimed back by Ottawa from Vancouver two days after that, and then traded to Florida for nothing less than two weeks later. Brookbank‘s career in the NHL tallies just 127 games over 5 seasons, so in the end it’s much ado about nothing–Thomson is a much more talented player irrespective of what happens to him at this level. The similarities are simply the (possible) back and forth that could occur.

This article was written by Peter Levi

October 9, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Dom Luszczyszyn and Sean Gentile’s league projections are out with his Ottawa article landing recently (cf). While a number of team reporters at The Athletic thought the projections were too low (Vegas, Seattle, New Jersey, Montreal, LA, Edmonton, Colorado, Carolina, Buffalo; only the Rangers and Chicago reporters thought they were too high), Ian Mendes, along with two-thirds of the others, thought they were spot on (Mendes points out that his model has been correct for Ottawa the last few years). Those projections, 94 points, assume a healthy Josh Norris (currently in question) and a signed Shane Pinto (currently not signed). Here’s how it would look in context if the model was 100% correct (basically an impossibility, but Dom does extremely well):
Atlantic
Toronto 104
Boston 103
Florida 97
Tampa Bay 95
Ottawa 94
Buffalo 87
Detroit 85
Montreal 71
Rest of the Eastern Conference ahead/near of Ottawa
New York Rangers 105
New Jersey 103
Pittsburgh 96
New York Islanders 92

This puts the team right on the bubble (8th place). In terms of the model, the team has done itself a favour dumping JBD (see below), although drags Travis Hamonic, Parker Kelly, Mark Kastelic, and Zack MacEwen remain. Funnily enough, the immediate problems the team is having are not included among the worst case scenarios, meaning there are many ways Ottawa’s season could collapse (as is generally the case for a bubble team).

A few hours after I posted the news came out that Norris is likely to miss the start of the season with no time table for his return. As fans know, issues with his shoulder go back to 2019 and it seems likely both that the Sens will place him on LTIR and that the freed cap space will finally allow them to sign Pinto. The question is: what becomes of Norris and how will the team deal with his absence? Clearly they will try putting Pinto in the #2 spot, but it’s not clear he’s ready for that or that Greig (who would likely be #3) is ready yet either. It throws a lot of chaos into what was a solid top six.

However unrealistic it was, there was a brief hope when JBD was put on waivers that someone would take him (so the opposite sentiment Ian Mendes paints the fans with), but his two year, one-way deal is too much of a poison pill for other GMs. It’s difficult to imagine, but JBD has been as useless in the AHL as he is the NHL (99-4-11-15/32-0-2-2), so he doesn’t help the BSens (who, after losing Thomson for nothing, are desperately short of puck moving defensemen). A shoutout to Bobby Ryan, who (like me) thinks Lassi Thomson was a better option than JBD. The org’s move makes me wonder if Parker Kelly will also be on the bus to Belleville sooner than later (unless an IR Norris clears space for Pinto); you have to wonder if Staios was involved as well, as JBD seems to be a D. J. Smith guy and this would be a visceral reminder of the short rope Smith has this season (I’m just speculating, however). The other waiver player, Sokolov, I was less concerned about. He was always heading to Belleville this year, so waivers were inevitable and while fans here love him other organizations have their own beloved bubble players.

The above were the third batch of players sent to the BSens (I’ll list them out momentarily; a note not all of them were physically sent down, but put through the waiver process to that end). The second batch (in order of ‘most surprising’ to least): Tyler Kleven (I think this is the best thing for him, especially with Thomson gone), Zach Ostapchuk, Nikolas Matinpalo (who made no noise at camp), Cole Reinhardt, and Kevin Mandolese. Other than Kleven, none of these are surprising. The third batch, besides JBD and Sokolov, include the pylon known as Jacob Larsson as well as Matthew Highmore, both AHL-vets whose demotion is no surprise (they also had to clear waivers). There will be one final batch to come after this.

A little follow-up on Sean Tierney: we’ve learned he’s a Steve Staios guy, so was undoubtedly brought in for his sake. I don’t know how much Staios pays attention to analytics, but he’s joined the most Luddite organization in that respect and Dorion will ignore it.

The final BSens member from last season who was without a team heading into this one has landed, as Cole Cassels signed an AHL-deal with San Jose.

This article was written by Peter Levi

October 7, 2023
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment