The season may already be flushed, but we’ll hold out hope as Ian Mendes (understandably) throws in the towel. The picture above doesn’t illustrate my own glee, but rather encapsulates all the warning signs prior to this season. Let us dial back the clock to July, where I was unimpressed with Dorion’s free agent efforts (MacEwen, Hamonic, and Korpisalo), the Debrincat trade (Kubalik is on-pace for the worst season of his career), and the overall drafting record beyond some top picks. It’s no surprise that the results of the Dorion regime are terrible, but the simple solution (firing D. J. Smith) has been allowed to linger like a bad fart, just the same way Dorion was left hanging as a lame duck GM. The results aren’t entirely on Smith (he didn’t pick the roster), but that’s beside the point. Just like in Edmonton, firing the coach is the simplest way to try and change a team’s fate. I’m sure Andlauer wants to wait for the road trip to end and that the writing was already on the wall. I don’t think the Penguin (er, Jacques Martin) will step in to ride out the season (he’s 71 and hasn’t coached since 2011-12), but there’s no need to be concerned with who replaces Smith at this point other than he needs to go. [My guess here was wrong as Martin is taking over–clearly on an interim basis however.]
The fundamental flaws the Sens have are nothing surprising. Their goaltending isn’t good enough; their blueline isn’t good enough; and their depth isn’t good enough. While I’m unsure if Forsberg and Korpisalo can work as an NHL tandem (unlikely), their horrible numbers are at least in part because of what’s in front of them. The top-end of the lineup is fine. People complain about the stars (their defensive play in particular), but that’s not the problem. The bottom of the lineup stinks and is underperforming; because of the cap situation there’s no easy way out of it. The smart move, trading Mathieu Joseph while his value is high, hasn’t occurred yet (and his injury complicates matters). To my mind there are 12 players on the roster who have been fine (all the obvious people you’d think of). Then we get to the horror show:
Forwards
Kubalik – hasn’t found a home in the lineup and his confidence is shot
Kelly – no complaints about the effort, but he can’t drive the play, making him too one-dimensional for the modern NHL
Chartier – he’s not an NHL player; people praise the defensive attention, but like Kelly above, that’s not enough
MacEwen – there’s been no need for one-dimensional fighters in the NHL for years (as I went over when he was signed)
Kastelic – I’ve never been a fan and, as with Chartier and Kelly above, he just isn’t talented enough
Defense
JBD – people love his compete level, but I don’t see the talent to back it up (and playing over 16 minutes a night?)
Brannstrom – why they didn’t move him in the offseason is a mystery (and over 16 minutes a night?)
Hamonic – bringing him back was a bad idea, as his game has fallen apart making him look like the player Vancouver dumped on the Sens originally
The time when you could roll out a physical fourth-line and call it a day are long past, but Dorion always had that mindset (and you see it reflected by many people who cover the team or hockey in general). The bigger problem is the blueline, where the drop off between the top-four (or, given Chabot‘s endless injury situation, cf, top-three) is catastrophic.
There’s nothing in the minors to save the team. While prospects remain, most of those with talent can’t play a depth role and aren’t valued enough around the league to make a useful trade. The Sens are also in cap hell, requiring space to sign Pinto (whose price has, at least, dropped), but they desperately need to turnover their depth.
Can they turn it around? With 56-games left in the season (almost 70% of the season) it’s possible, but not without major changes beyond Smith. The problem for Staios is that to make big changes means moving a good player, but the Sens can’t afford to do that as it simply creates new problems. The perfect world is: fire Smith, trade Joseph (to make room for Pinto and for at least one other minor move), dump anyone from the fourth-line for picks or future considerations (Kelly, Chartier, MacEwen, and Kastelic combined: 75-2-5-7), trade either Brannstrom or JBD and then shore up the blueline with a competent #5 blueliner or prospect (Kleven is a work in progress, but at least there’s potential). How easy is this to do? It’s not, although I believe there’s a healthy market for Joseph (moving him would allow Kubalik to slide up the lineup and you might as well find out if he can return to form with top-six minutes), and at least one or two of the pieces above could find homes elsewhere in the NHL.
What I wouldn’t do is make a panicked trade of top players. Ottawa’s elite talent is too thin for a move. The only argument I’d entertained is trading Chabot due to his injury problems, but you can’t make that deal without getting something good in return and that’s unlikely (although Columbus is still in the league, so one never knows). My expectation at this point is Smith will be fired when the team returns to Ottawa, but no other moves will be made at that time (Staios waiting to see how the coaching change impacts results).
This article was written by Peter Levi
eyeonthesens 