The summer is typically slow for news–I assumed I’d spend my free time playing Factions (the multiplayer for The Last of Us–a great team game with terrible matchmaking) and watching StarCraft.  Instead, despite a dearth of bonafide signings, there’s a steady dribble of analysis to comment on.

Analysis

Travis Yost posted a link to a 2014 article I missed from Kent Wilson where he outlines the NHL’s disinclination to change and accept analytics:

The league is also notoriously insular, with the vast majority of executives coming from the ranks of ex-players, family members of past decision makers and lawyers/player agents. In addition, the amount of open positions in a system with a given number of teams is also more or less fixed. The result is the NHL as a business is less likely to experience new, disruptive models that challenge established ways of thinking.

As a result, there is a distinct lack of intellectual diversity. In fact, there are disincentives to stepping too far outside of the box. Just about everyone who rises to power in the league has been steeped in the same “hockey culture” for decades. There is an implicit antipathy towards things that don’t conform to NHL norms, and therefore an inherent risk to being “too different” for those whose career aspirations lie within league walls. Although there is significant attrition and relatively low career security in NHL position from coaches all the way up to the GM chair, there is also significant churn and intra-team recycling done within the confines of the NHL. Meaning one can fail, but fail successfully (ie; retain legitimate employment options) by not colouring too far outside the lines. It’s one thing to lose by perfectly conventional means. It’s quite another to fail while being stigmatized as odd by the rest of the league.

This is all too true–and also one of the reasons the league has been so reluctant to improve the entertainment value of the game; it’s why you’ll see people in the NHL seek out confirmation bias information–eg, one player had good Corsi numbers, but they sucked, ergo Corsi is irrelevant.  The general point, by the way, afflicts more institutions than just the NHL.  Continuing:

There is also a distinct difference in information flow between NHL teams and the sort of de facto, crowd-sourced peer review that produced corsi stats. NHL clubs are separate and disconnected, particularly when it comes to chasing strategic insight that will confer competitive advantages. As such, any particular insights that are gleaned from work inside individual franchises are horded and protected as state secrets. In effect, NHL teams are the proverbial collection of blind men trying to describe the elephant by feeling a single portion of the animal: they each have bits of information that are only portions of the whole.

Amen.

Speaking of articles of faith, Yost looks at the mythical big man–the Milan Lucic, the Tim Kerr, the Phil Esposito–a player who can dominate the front of the net and bang in rebounds.

There’s some mysticism surrounding this type of player, but they do exist. An effective guy in and around the crease area can make quite the difference for an offence at both 5-on-5 and with the man advantage. The guys who can win pucks back after a primary attack and generate secondary attempts from premium scoring areas will find the back of the net at relatively high rates. The trick is finding the player who has this skill and isn’t an anchor for the team in other facets of the game.

Well said.  Travis digs into the numbers to see who fits this coveted archetype in the here and now by looking at shot attempts via rebounds.  It’s an interesting list (no current Sens on it, although Jason Spezza is there).  Oddly enough, Lucic himself does not rank very high on the list.

I was mentally kicking the tires on Chris Kelly in an effort to anticipate what he’ll bring to the Sens if he can stay healthy.  I’ll trust Nichols and others to look at his Corsi-trends, but I was curious about his production.  Historically his points-per-game sits at 0.37, although at the peak of his career (05-12) it was 0.45.  The last four seasons he’s dropped to 0.31 (over a 30% drop), so the usual decline due to age is well in progress.  Related to Kelly, the latest Point-Per-Cost podcast points out that his signing is a “win-now” approach, which makes little sense with the current roster.

Trevor Shackles speculates on the Sens 2017-18 roster in an effort to be positive about where the Sens could be (his speculation relies a lot on prospect projection–both in terms of their ceiling and it happening quickly).  It’s delightful speculation, but it intentionally airs on the positive side.  Realistically, not all the prospects will reach their ceiling or reach them at the same rate. I can understand the desire from fans to get hyped about prospects –the organisation has encouraged it and as anyone knows from reading this blog I like the prospect cycle (who doesn’t like diamonds in the rough?).  It isn’t that long ago that I was singing the praises of Alexander Nikulin on the HFBoards (something not entirely unique to me–the now defunct Sens Army Blog saw him as a key prospect), but experiences like that provide necessary caution: 1) org-hype is meaningless, 2) one good season isn’t a trend.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 15, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

It is hot and humid in Ottawa and the news is slow.  That said, there are always a few things to comment on, so here we go:

Back in April I talked about the rumours that the Sens might move their AHL-affiliate from Binghamton to Belleville.  Nichols and Ross A both talk about an Ottawa Citizen story where Debbie Preston (Broome County Executive) confirms it–the comments don’t seem that radically different from what was said in May, but it’s added confirmation of the move.  All signs point to the affiliate playing in Belleville for the 2017-18 season, leaving this upcoming year as quite bittersweet for BSens fans.

Randy Lee talked about the Development Camp, but it’s hard to take him seriously when he praises dead weight like Vincent Dunn and Chris Leblanc–“works hard” doesn’t make up for a lack of skill (for those of you who think I’m engaging in hyperbole, I watched Dunn‘s entire season in the ECHL and it wasn’t pretty).  Nichols (whose transcript I’ve linked) talks about Lee trying to light a fire under Thomas Chabot without referencing how badly that gambit turned out with Nick Paul (I don’t think him being named Hardest Worker is a coincidence)–admittedly Nichols doesn’t pay much attention to Binghamton, but some players don’t respond well to the cliched “kick in the butt” the Sens reserve for their skilled players (whereas they bend over backwards to forgive the foibles of their “character” players–as illustrated above).

Speaking of prospects, Callum Fraser writes about Logan Brown–it’s more of a human interest piece than an analytical look at him, but it does bring up how talented his teammates in Windsor are and that’s always something to keep in mind about his numbers (how much is generated by him and how much is due to circumstances).

In the midst of fan questions Ary M compares Fredrik Claesson to Mark Borowiecki, which is the kind of thing that makes you ask: do we need either at the NHL-level?  Hopefully Freddy is better this year and I can get back on board with him, but if his peak performance is ala Borocop it’s not a good sign.

Via the same link NKB tries to explore the struggles of Curtis Lazar, but rather than look at the analytics and compare his to similar players, he looks at draft history based on where he was picked–I’m not sure there’s anything to glean from that route of inquiry (although as a matter of draft trivia it’s fun to do).  Lazar was never a prospect I was excited about and the projections for him (responsible third or fourth liner with no hands) seem on-target (not the sort of thing you need from a first-round pick).  Does he have time to show us more and develop?  Of course, but I wouldn’t hold up much hope for an offensive explosion.

Analysis

So what do you do in mid-July when not much is happening?  Read whatever happens to be available and occasionally see something that raises an eyebrow:

There is no reason to think he [Chris Kelly] won’t fill the role … At 35, Chris Kelly is certainly not a spring chicken anymore. He only played 11 games last season

I’ve deliberately switched around Michaela Schreiter’s response to a reader question because to me she refutes herself–both facts she opens with are reasons to think he might not fulfill his role.  It doesn’t mean that he won’t, but there’s certainly reason for skepticism.

Speaking of free agent signings, Trevor Shackles bemoans the Sens not landing better bargain players without speculating on the relative appeal of signing in Ottawa.  The Sens are both a small market team and suffer from an internal budget, making winning all the more difficult–it’s the sort of situation that appeals most to older players with nothing left to achieve (ahem, Kelly, along with the laundry list of players Murray saddled the team with over the years).

I want to emphasize something Ross A said in passing:

possession metrics aren’t widely used

Sad but true.  When normally sensible people like Elliotte Friedman are still unsure of them you know the league (and its aging fanbase) are a long way away from embracing it.

Andrew writes a long piece about the dumb decision-making by GM’s in free agency.  There’s nothing new here, but he includes some funny lines.  I do think if NHL GM’s were more progressive and believed/embraced analytics most of the silly signings would stop, but we’re a long way from that ever happening.

I don’t usually read comment sections, but I did dive into a thread on The Silver Seven where I learned that (for some) calling your opponents losers was how you win an argument (very Donald Trump, now that I think about it).  I remain amazed that, not just in sports, but in all contexts how so many people seem unwilling (or unable) to engage in discourse.  It’s okay to be wrong or to make mistakes–it happens–it’s part of learning.  You can respect people who disagree with you.  There’s an inclination to say this sort of behaviour comes from younger people, but I know plenty of adults who engage in it too–I find it all bizarre.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 13, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment