Under the radar Sens GM Staios made a couple of minor league deals about a week ago (March 15th), acquiring failed Winnipeg asset Wyatt Bongiovanni for nothing (future considerations) and sending their 6th round pick for failed Carolina asset Jamieson Rees. The former deal I greet with a shrug of the shoulders–it costs nothing and the BSens are short on useful forwards, so why not try? I’m less enamored with the second deal, since dumping picks for questionable assets is a poor use of draft capital. Let’s look at both players.
A relatively unremarkable USHL player who moved on to Quinnipiac where he was much better; he finished his final NCAA season second in scoring to the undrafted, undersized defenseman Zach Metsa (who is having a decent season with Rochester as a rookie). Was he unproductive on the Moose or was he not given the opportunity? Given that the Jets gave him away I’m leaning towards the former.
The OHL grad’s career has derailed after a solid third AHL-season last year. He’s never been dominant in the minors and I don’t see the NHL upside, so I’m lost on why the Sens want to take a flier on him (as in, what’s the hope for him with the org?). Barring a late season surge this looks like a fail off the hop. For those with good memories (or a nose for trivia), Rees has an Ottawa connection, as the pick used to draft him was part of the Erik Karlsson deal, subsequently traded away to draft Mads Sogaard (cf).
We had one other transaction that I’ve expected for some time: signing Stephen Halliday to his ELC (cf for projection thoughts).
Stephen Halliday, DOB 02, CL, 6’3, 4-104/22 2021-22 62-35-60-95 (1st) 2022-23 40-9-32-41 (1st) 2023-24 38-10-26-36 (1st)
For once the Sens drafted for talent in the later rounds and he’s proceeded to lead his team in production every season. The BSens are desperate for scoring (something neither of the two players above can solve) and the org in general needs a talent-injection. Here’s hoping he can provide that (certainly his size gives him the option of being more than just a scorer as well). If his description sounds a little bit like failed picks Todd Burgess (4-103/16) and Jakov Novak (7-188/18) it’s worth noting that Halliday was much more productive than both as a college player. He was, incidentally, playing with Sens prospect Theo Wallberg who has turned poor USHL production into solid NCAA production as a rookie, which is encouraging.
While there are plenty of excuses, Sens GM Steve Staios ends the deadline in failure, having moved just one piece that needed to go (cf my prior concern). Kubalik will walk away for nothing, Brannstrom is still here, and so on. Yes, the market was soft, but the best GM’s figure it out and Staios did not.
That’s not to write him off or say he can’t handle the job, we’re just looking at this specific situation. On the plus side, he didn’t make any bad trades or silly additions (Boris Katchouk off waivers is fine, if perplexing). Staios hasn’t made the team any worse, but he hasn’t improved it either. We’ll have a better sense of his true capabilities at the draft and then in free agency. With that said, let’s look at the one deal he did pull off.
Tarasenko, as a Sen, performed as expected: 57-17-24-41 0.72(-0.04 with St. Louis last year, where he was averaging +1:29 TOI) The primary criticism was signing him in the first place–it created cap hell for Ottawa and didn’t make the team better (nor did he produce at Debrinkat levels–0.80 with the Sens last year, 0.86 with Detroit this year).
Outside of local Ottawa reporters, no one liked the Tarasenko trade, despite the limitations (supposedly Florida was the only place he’d go and his family has been living there the entire season). Both writers at The Athletic gave Staios a poor grade (a C from Dom Luszczyszyn and a C- from Sean Gentille), and I agree with them. The picks provided by the Panthers will be late in those rounds and two 3rds or a 3rd/4th aren’t likely to produce NHL players (the last time I ran the numbers about 10% of 3rd-rounders made it (the last Ottawa 3rd-rounder to pan out was Zack Smith in 2008); the picks are useful as elements for other deals)–the value is very similar to what Toronto gave up for marginal defenseman Joel Edmundson, while Seattle GM Ron Francis was able to squeeze a 2nd-rounder from the Rangers for Alexander Wennberg. Retaining half his salary this season is fine given that Norris is (again!) injured.
The brief run the Sens went on with Jacques Martin has ended and they will likely finish as a bottom-five team in. The primary problem remains goaltending. It will be interesting to see if Staios believes they have the solution in the minors with Sogaardor if they look for someone else (obviously Korpisalo isn’t the solution, but that’s only a surprise to the departed Pierre Dorion). I’d try and get a veteran goalie with a decent track record (so not the scattered records of either Forsberg or Korpisalo), and either pair them with Sogaard or stick with Forsberg until you find a better solution. That’s on-paper what Dorion did in free agency, but Korpisalo clearly does not fit that bill.
Beyond goaltending there’s the depth problem (cf), something Dorion has tried to draft for years. While Jason York (& others) want to add ‘toughness’, the problem Ottawa has is the huge talent gap beyond their top players. The bottom half of the lineup can’t produce, which makes smothering the offense easy for elite teams. Players like Kastelic, MacEwen, and Chartier don’t move the needle enough and the Sens aren’t drafting enough talent (T. Boucher etc). It will be interesting to see how Staios envisions the bottom-six and what he does to fulfill that vision.
I want to go all the way back to August to look at moves. I have St. Louis as a buyer, not just because they are technically still in the wild card race, but more for how they’ve behaved (Calgary, who are tied with them, have operated more like sellers). For conditional picks I’ve leaned on what seems most likely; ‘prospects’ includes players on two-way deals; FC=future considerations.
Going into the deadline, The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn wrote about five ‘buyer beware’ players and three of them were acquired: Dumba to Tampa, E. Johnson to Philadelphia, and Peeke to Boston. All three are big, physical defensemen, which is what’s in vogue and in the first two cases are purely rentals.
Other interesting notes: LA made no deals over this period (the only such team); Calgary acquired the most picks (7 and although one of those was traded away, 6 remains the most); Vegas surrendered the most (6). Teams that gave away 1st-round picks: Vegasx2 (Hertl, Hanifin), Edmonton (Henrique/Carrick), Winnipeg (Monahan), Pittsburgh (Karlsson), Vancouver (Lindholm), and Colorado (Walker; other than the Penguins these are all playoff teams). San Jose added the most NHL players (6), while they and Pittsburgh traded away the most (5 each). Pittsburgh also acquired the most prospects (8), while Carolina traded away the most (7). While the deadline was a dud for Ottawa, it was a busy time overall.
It’s deadline time and (yet again) the Sens are sellers. I talked about this a bit before, but it’s worth going through what’s likely to happen and what I think should happen (contracts beyond this season noted). I’m not expecting the Sens to add a significant player (not that they can’t, just that nothing suggests that they are). In terms of needs, goaltending is the priority, followed by depth (both on the blueline and at forward), but the latter isn’t something they should worry about in a dead season. [Why Ian Mendes continues to put Drake Batherson on his lists is beyond me–his contract is excellent for what he does–I can’t help but wonder if there other reasons behind it (the early stain of the 2018 WJC accusations come to mind).]
Players Who Will Be Moved Tarasenko (UFA) – He must go or they lose him for nothing; in the link above I go through his expected destinations; the team won’t get the value for him that St. Louis got last year, but he should yield a couple of picks or a pick and a prospect (highest pick being a 2nd) Kubalik (UFA) – As above (he must go or they lose him for nothing); I think they’ll get very little for him and may have to take a salary back or retain salary (I’d guess they get a pick for him–maybe they can squeeze out a 4th) Brannstrom (RFA/arbitration) – There is no room for him in the org, particularly since he’s on the left side (even if one of the Big Three get moved–as I think will happen–there’s Kleven behind him who is better suited to depth minutes); the price is probably a prospect and/or a pick for him (might get a 2nd for him if there are still believers in the league)
Players Who Should Move Chabot (8.0/27-28) – I love the player, but at his cost I’d rather keep Chychrun as #2 behind Sanderson; the Sens will have to take a salary back (whether just to finish out the season or to keep is hard to say), but they should also get a prospect and a couple of picks (I’d want a 1st); this is a decision that can wait until the off-season, however Hamonic (1.1/24-25) – He’s completely fallen apart and needs to go, but I don’t think anyone will take him, so a buyout in the off-season is likely Korpisalo (4.0/27-28) – Has to be bought out as there’s no market for his absurd contract (I’ve seen it argued there’s too much term/money left for a buyout, but this isn’t Toronto where you can magically bury someone on LTIR like Matt Murray) [Mendes makes that argument, link above] T. Boucher (ELC 0.863/25-26) – As a declining asset I’d move him if anyone wants him (he’s injured again)–maybe you can squeeze someone for a 2nd, but much more likely a 3rd is all you can hope for [Mendes, link above, wants to keep him because ‘he has upside’–every young player does, but they usually have shown something by this point.]
Players Who Could Move Kelly (RFA arbitration) – Could go, but he’s cheap and an RFA so the only pressure to do so is if they want to clear roster space for prospects/fresh blood (someone like Crookshank, for instance); nothing of substance would come back (a late pick perhaps) Mandolese (RFA arbitration) – If you prioritize Meriliainen over him (as presumably they do), he’s a third-wheel going into next season (there’s a caveat to this: if they want Sogaard to play in the NHL next year you can keep him); if they move him they get a late pick (6th) or prospect Joseph (2.95/25-26) – I think he’s overpaid, but with the cap going up the Sens might have decided he’s worth keeping (don’t pay attention his current career numbers as they are due to usage and almost certainly not repeatable); the Sens could get a prospect and/or picks for him (might squeeze out a late 2nd for him) [Mendes considers him untouchable and doesn’t go into the potential cap problems he creates] Norris (7.95/29-30) – I’ve begun to wonder if the org wants to move on from someone with such a short track record (just one dominant season) given his contract and with (much cheaper) centers Pinto and Grieg behind him; a salary would have to come back with a prospect and/or picks (would any other team think he’s an 8 million dollar player? Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t in the league anymore so I’m not sure)–there is, however, no specific reason to move him at the deadline (it’s much easier to move a salary like this in the off-season)
[Mendes includes Smejkal as someone who will likely be moved, which makes it clear he hasn’t watched many (if any) BSens games or had a clear understanding of what kind of player he’d be across the pond–could he be moved? Sure, it’s much more likely a disappointing AHL-veteran (Currie, for instance) gets shifted to end the lineup chaos in Belleville. His AHL list that follows seems equally random, although we’ll credit that Mendes has, perhaps, talked to the org ahead of time (doesn’t seem like it, but maybe).]
That’s how I see it. Tarasenko, Kubalik, and Brannstrom go, with 1-2 players coming back (just to finish out the season) along with 1-2 prospects and some picks (possibly two 2nds). Beyond that it’s much more up in the air and many of the players who could be moved have difficult contracts to deal with, so that may be all the Sens do (I don’t envision Staios as someone who wants to shake up the lineup too much yet).
As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).
With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams: Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be
My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).
The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold): 1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment 2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues) 3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet 4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling 5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20) 6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each) 7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player 8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL 9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2) 10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge 11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point 12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers) 13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that 14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental 15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)
I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.
We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.
As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).
The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).
Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.
I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap: Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well. Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.
What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):
Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons) Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost) Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above] Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!) MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside
You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.
There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.
What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.
As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).
What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed: Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet) The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).
How about the unsigned? Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league) Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production
What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.
As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next): 2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th 2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th 2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.
Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.
For the first time since he was hired back in 2007, Pierre Dorion finally faced consequences for his actions, losing a first-round pick for botching the Dadonov trade and as a result being fired. Dorion had lost or wasted four-straight first-round picks (2021-23, plus one in 24-26), with at least three in the top-ten. That’s a terrible cost without meaningful benefit. I’m glad ownership pulled the trigger–he could only inflict more damage the longer he was retained (cf, but as we’ll go over). I’ve wanted him gone for a long, long time, well before he became the GM. This move doesn’t guarantee Ottawa will get a good GM (as expected, Steve Staios will serve as the interim manager), but I’d like to think the number of embarrassing mistakes is reduced and the team becomes more professional (cf).
One thing this debacle hints at is that the speculation that the Mann brothers (Trent and Troy) were fired for optics (cf, that is, to avoid the new owner getting honest feedback about him), could very well be true. In my opinion there were practical reasons to let both go (more Trent than Troy), but it’s possible it was purely in order for Pierre to present himself in the best light possible.
There are a lot of ways to assess Dorion, but let’s start with his background. His father had a stellar career as a scout (perhaps why Pierre has a fetish for ‘son-of’ draft/signing/hiring) and he began his career as an amateur scout in Montreal (94-95 to 04-05, under Serge Savard, Rejean Houle, Andre Savard, and Bob Gainey), then with the Rangers from 05-06 to 06-07 (under Glen Sather). The Sens signed him to be their Director of Amateur Scouting (07-08 to 08-09), then Director of Player Personal (09-10 to 13-14), Assistant GM (mid-season 13-14 to 15-16), to GM (16-17), all under Bryan Murray.
We’ll start with team performance as GM. Dorion played a major hand in the drafting prior to becoming the GM, so in many ways the initial roster is ‘his’ roster, even though Murray built that team, but we’ll get to that later.
NHL 2016-17 44-28-10 12th Boucher Lost Conference Finals 2017-18 28-43-11 30th Boucher 2018-19 29-47-6 31st Boucher/Crawford 2019-20 25-34-12 30th Smith 2020-21 23-28-5 23rd Smith 2021-22 33-42-7 25th Smith 2022-23 39-35-8 21st Smith AHL (Because some Western teams play 68-games, I’m positioning them just vs the East) 2016-17 28-44-4 13th Kleinendorst (final season in Binghamton) 2017-18 29-42-5 14th Kleinendorst 2018-19 37-31-8 t-10th Mann 2019-20 38-20-5 t-2nd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2020-21 18-16-1 3rd Mann (no playoffs due to Covid) 2021-22 40-28-4 6th Mann Lost 1st Round 2022-23 31-31-6 14th Mann/Bell
In Dorion’s tenure the team had a miracle playoff run to start and then went into a painful rebuild it hasn’t fully pulled out of. On the AHL-side, Dorion had helped denude the prospect pool he inherited and was unable to achieve AHL-success since (in part due to Covid in part, but it’s very early for a rebuilding team to be running out of high end prospects).
Dorion deserves a lot of criticism for his trades (his comment was always don’t judge me now; I did then and we can now–you can find a complete list here). There are a lot of deals so we’ll focus on the ones I consider key/indicative. I will put them in red if it’s a fail, green if it’s a win, and orange if it’s yet to be determined.
Trades 2016-17 1st & 3rd for 1st – the Logan Brown trade; the Sens gave up what would be Michael McLeod and Brandon Gignac to move from 12 to 11 at the draft. Brown (son-of) isn’t currently playing, having dressed for only 99 NHL games (99-7-19-26) in his career. McLeod remains a useful Devil (250-20-48-68), still under contract with the team, while Gignac is a productive AHL-player. Zibanejad for Brassard – top center for a fading veteran, I knew this was a bad move when it was made and we don’t need to dive into the numbers as Z-bad is still an incredibly productive player for the Rangers and Brassard (after his second tour in Ottawa) is retired; there were two picks thrown into the deal, with Ottawa’s (Luke Loheit) a bust and the Rangers (Jonatan Berggren) a useful part of Detroit’s prospect pool Lazar for Jokipakka – trading Lazar is an automatic win, but putting aside bust Jokipakka, the Sens got a 2nd they used to pick Alex Formenton–his personal problems aside, as a player that’s a huge win in return for an unremarkable fourth-liner like Lazar 2017-18 Duchene for Turris and picks – the team was able to move Hammond and failed 1st-rounder Shane Bowers (still bouncing around the AHL), but gave up the 4th overall pick (Bowen Byram) and a 3rd (Matthew Stienberg; currently struggling in the AHL) without achieving anything Brassard for Ian Cole and Filip Gustavsson – this is a weird one as it’s mostly swapping around irrelevant spare parts between three teams (Pittsburgh/Vegas; Gustavsson is his own thing below), except that the 1st-round pick Ottawa landed was later wasted (as we’ll get to) and there’s an Ottawa piece that’s still undetermined in goaltender Justus Annunen (in Colorado) Ian Cole for prospect/pick – I don’t think much of Cole as a player, but he’s still getting regular minutes in the NHL (currently for Vancouver) and the Sens have nothing to show for it; the prospect (Nick Moutrey) is now playing tier-3 in Europe, while the pick (Alex Laferriere) is on LA’s roster Hoffman for Boedker – another train wreck where the Sens gave up a useful player and have almost nothing left in return (certainly not the same value); Boedker was a bust, as was prospect Julius Bergman; the pick (Philippe Daoust) remains, but his future is uncertain; besides Hoffman the Sens also gave up a pick and that pick (Tyler Tullio) is a viable prospect (now in Edmonton) 1st for a 1st and 2nd – the K’Andre Miller trade, from which the Sens only have JBD remaining (the 2nd, Tychonick, is on an AHL-deal with Toronto) 2018-19 Karlsson for Norris etc – this is the deal that saved Dorion’s career; while the established players he got failed to deliver or remain (Tierney, DeMelo now in Winnipeg, and Balcers now in Europe), but it landed Norris, the pick for Stutzle, Ostapchuk (ceiling TBD), and a pick later traded (Jamieson Rees, on the last year of his ELC with Carolina–see below) Anders Nilsson for Mike McKenna – this only appears because of the pick the Sens threw in that became goaltending prospect Arturs Silovs (in the Vancouver system) Duchene for Abramov etc – Columbus didn’t retain Duchene and the established prospects failed out for Ottawa, so this should be a wash, except that the pick that became Lassi Thomson is part of the deal and that could turn the tide in Ottawa’s favour Dzingel for Duclair – this should be a win for Ottawa, given the way each player’s career went, but the Sens gave up both picks acquired in the deal (two 2nd’s), both of whom are legit prospects (we’ll get to those deals later) Stone for Brannstrom etc – while the Sens retain both Brannstrom and the pick (Sokolov) from this deal, neither of them are worth Stone and there’s no guarantee either are in the league a few years from now 2nd & 3rd for 2nd – this is the Rees trade mentioned above, where the Sens swapped that pick for Mads Sogaard, so it remains to be seen how this turns out Brown, Zaitsev for Ceci, Harper – trading Ceci should always be a win, but not when you get Zaitsev back; this is also the trade that moved the Laferriere pick (now in LA) 2019-20 Veronneau for Luchuk – the only reason this irrelevant trade appears is that Dorion landed a pick (Vyacheslav Peksa) he later traded away and that goaltender could turn out Pageau for 1st – that first turned into Ridley Greig (the Sens gave away the 2nd from this trade) and it remains to be seen how the former’s career goes (unlikely to match Pageau‘s, but possible) J. Brown for 4th – the 4th didn’t turn out, so why is this here? Because no one in their right mind trades for the signing rights for Josh Brown (an irrelevant player now a spare part in Arizona) 2020-21 Matt Murray for prospect/pick – the ‘tender was (and is) a disaster and while the prospect hasn’t panned out (Gruden) the pick (Joel Blomqvist) could; the deal where Murray was dumped isn’t inherently awful, but the Sens are still paying for him via retained salary (this is the last year of that) 2nd for 2nd & 3rd – the Kleven trade; the Leafs picked up two viable prospects in the deal (Roni Hirvonen and Topi Niemela), so we’ll have to see who ultimately pans out Carcone for Magwood – the former has found an NHL career in Arizona while the latter is a bit part in tier-2 Europe 2nd for Stepan – I have absolutely no idea why anyone would want Stepan at that phase of his career; the Sens gave up the pick that became Josh Doan (now in Arizona) 2nd for 2nd/5th – while undetermined, the Sens gave up on Ben Roger (having flipped the other pick) while Francesco Pinelli got an ELC from LA Dadonov for Holden/pick – on a hockey level this is initially a win, but Holden is gone, the pick moved (Elias Pettersson in Vancouver), and Dorion lied to Vegas and got himself fired 2021-22 Gambrell trade – this is a loss not because of the pick exchanged (who didn’t turn out), but because they played Gambrell in the NHL–why? Paul for Joseph – there’s always a chance the Sens hit a homerun with the 4th-rounder in 2024, but I doubt it 2022-23 Debricat for picks – I thought this was bad from the start and that’s not in dispute anymore–besides losing the 7th overall in Kevin Korchinski, there’s Paul Ludwinski and a 3rd-rounder this year with the Sens having nothing to show for it Talbot for Gustavsson – even if Gus implodes with Minnesota this year, his season-to-season comparison with Talbot isn’t close Zaitsev for picks – we don’t know if Roman Kantserov or the 4th in 2026 will turn out, but this is still a self-inflicted loss of assets Chychrun for picks – while the Sens gave up Daniil But (12th overall) along with the 2nd they got for Connor Brown and a 2nd in 2026, ifChychrun performs well, stays healthy, and can be retained, it’s worthwhile Patrick Brown for a pick – why trade for him? I don’t know if Ryan MacPherson will turn out, but what was the point of acquiring Brown for less than 20-games of a lost season? Debrincat for Kubalik and picks – might as well lose on both trades involving the player; the Sens have to hope they hit a homerun with the 1st or 4th-rounder
Let’s take a tally from the above: 2-18-12. That’s awful (10% on those determined). Dorion lost most of his deals and this is echoed by his free agent signings (below). First let’s go over his draft record. One thing the media in Ottawa has always koomed over was his ability to spot talent. Let’s look shall we? How good was he (something I actually went over recently, but there are changes below)?
Dorion’s Success Rate at the Draft (2008-23) We have to keep in mind he didn’t have full control of who was picked until 2014 (those totally due to Dorion below are in green); also keep in mind that final judgement can’t be assessed for all (noted by the third number in the assessment below). In terms of generic draft realities, there’s a difference between early and late picks in the first two rounds, but afterwards it’s trivial (cf). I haven’t bothered with the last two drafts (22-23), as it’s far too early to judge–on average at least one pick from each should turn out, but teams do completely miss. The percentage excludes the unknowns ( I’ve also highlighted a couple of ‘successes’ that I have questions about), with ‘success’ being 400 NHL games (or projected to do so), which is about five full seasons–a genuine NHL-caliber player: 1st (top-ten): 4-1-1 80% (Mika Zibanejad, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Jake Sanderson; Jared Cowen; Tyler Boucher) 1st (eleven+): 5-4-3 55% (Erik Karlsson, Stefan Noesen, Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar, Thomas Chabot; Matt Puempel, Colin White, Logan Brown, Shane Bowers; Jacob Bernard-Docker, Lassi Thomson, Ridly Greig) 2nd (top-ten): 2-3-1 40% (Jakob Silfverberg, Shane Pinto; Andreas Englund, Gabriel Gagne, Jonathan Dahlen; Roby Jarventie) 2nd (eleven+): 1-4-4 20% (Robin Lehner; Patrick Wiercioch, Shane Prince, Filip Chlapik, Jonny Tychonick; Alex Formenton, Mads Sogaard, Tyler Kleven, Yegor Sokolov) 3rd: 1-5-1 16% (Zack Smith; Jakub Culek, Jarrod Maidens, Chris Driedger, Marcus Hogberg, Miles Gendron; Leevi Merilainen) 4th: 3-12-0 20% (Derek Grant, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Drake Batherson; Andre Petersson, Chris Wideman, Marcus Sorensen, Tim Boyle, Tobias Lindberg, Ben Harpur, Shane Eiserman, Filip Ahl, Christian Wolanin, Todd Burgess, Jonathan Gruden, Viktor Lodin) 5th: 2-7-2 22% (Mark Borowiecki, Mike Hoffman; Jeff Costello, Fredrik Claesson, Robert Baillargeon, Vincent Dunn, Christian Jaros, Max Lajoie, Eric Engstrand; Angus Crookshank, Mark Kastelic) 6th: 1-9-2 10% (Mark Stone; Corey Cowick, Darren Kramer, Max McCormick, Francois Brassard, Quentin Shore, Chris Leblanc, Markus Nurmi, Jordan Hollett, Kevin Mandolese; Philippe Daoust, Cole Reinhardt) 7th: 1-10-2 9% (Ryan Dzingel; Emil Sandin, Brad Peltz, Michael Sdao, Bryce Aneloski, Jordan Fransoo, Mikael Wikstrand, Francis Perron, Kelly Summers, Luke Loheit, Jakov Novak; Joey Daccord, Maxence Guenette)
I think Cody Ceci is an awful player, but at nearly 700 games played he fits the criteria of success; I also think Curtis Lazar is a marginal NHL-player who hurts the teams he plays for (passim), but again, 400+ games, so I have to bow to the numbers. These are two players who fail the eye and stat test, but have GMs who believe in them.
Through the 14 drafts considered the Sens have 20 successes (or 1.42 per draft), which would be in the top-half of the league. That said, many of the names above were not when Pierre was holding the trigger. From 2014 and on, when he had the final say, he’s 6 for 8 (since we’re not counting 22-23). There are plenty of prospects who could still turn out and he’d just need 3 to get himself up to the top half of the league, but what’s more concerning to me is how few outside the Goldilocks zone (1st-2nd rounds) have panned out–thus far, just Batherson. To create depth, teams need to find players in later rounds–there simply aren’t enough early picks to carry you through (ask Edmonton). There could be an argument made that Trent Mann has truly run the boards since 2017, but in that case Dorion’s record is abysmal–from 2014-16 his only success is Chabot (1 for 3). That’s Darryl Sutter/Peter Chiarelli levels of failure (cf).
What can we take from his draft success? I’ll be fair to Dorion in saying he’s at least average at the draft. In time we might say slightly above or below, but what he isn’t is the savant we’ve been hearing about for almost two decades. The Sens cupboard was bare prior to the rebuild and it’s close to that now that the team is in its window (early returns for the 21-23 drafts look like a wash, with a ‘maybe’ for each of the first two). Too easily Dorion threw away draft capital to make a splash and that’s never worked out for him (as seen above). The overriding problem with the Sens right now is depth, something the draft is meant to solve.
FA Signings (Not comprehensive) Tarasenko (2023; 1yr, 5.0) – assessment ongoing, good early returns, but the signing helped create Cap Hell Korpisalo (2023; 5yrs, 4.0) – the term and cost are difficult to understand MacEwen (2023; 3yrs, 0.775) – why, and why the term? He’s in the AHL now Giroux (2022; 3yrs, 6.5) – has turned out very well Del Zotto (2021; 2yrs, 2.0) – forced to buy him out (still on the books this season) Dadonov (2020; 3yrs, 5.0) – arrived out of shape & disinterested; also the boondoggle leading to Dorion’s firing Nilsson (2019; 2yrs, 2.6) – played reasonably well in his 44 appearances; now retired Thompson (2017; 2yrs, 1.65) – signed after an awful season but an okay playoff; the Sens were forced to jettison him in his first season (by acquiring a bad contract from LA, Gaborik) Condon (2017; 3yrs, 2.4) – yet another Pittsburgh ‘tender Dorion fell in love with (why three years on such a small sample size?); offloaded him by acquiring a bad contract from Tampa (Callahan)
Re-signed (Not comprehensive) Zub (2022; 4yrs, 4.6) – was the cost of bringing him back too high? It remains to be seen and we have to wonder how many of his ‘upper body’ injuries in the past were also concussions Forsberg (2022; 3yrs, 2.75) – again, why the term? An off-year last year, but he could put it back together this season White (2019; 6yrs, 4.75) – a middling, fragile player, I have no idea what Dorion was smoking; he’s in the AHL now, but the Sens are going to be paying him until 2027-28 Smith (2017; 3yrs, 3.25) – everyone loves him, but his career was already in decline, the team was collapsing, and that’s a high number for a third-line player–traded in the final year of his deal to Chicago (for a bad contract, Anisimov)
I’m not going to try to explain the org’s love affair with Tom Pyatt, as his three pointless years were cheap and there are bigger problems. Dorion does not get the blame for Bobby Ryan‘s buyout–maybe he could have moved him instead (doubtful at that price), but the contract was Bryan Murray’s (even if he likely approved of it). This is the last year where Ryan gets paid.
Cap Hell
The Sens have no reason to be slammed against the Cap, but they are, so let’s look at why:
If you look at that and wonder how the Sens are up against it when they’ve (technically) cut almost three million from their salaries, it’s because Norris is not on LTIR and Stutzle‘s contract (8.35) has kicked in. The Sens also still have almost 3.5 million in dead money owed to buyouts or retention (this would be more than enough to re-sign Pinto if it was off the books). The Sens have to move someone to bring Pinto in, barring a long term injury.
There are a lot of ‘why’s’ with Dorion’s moves above. If you don’t believe in Forsberg, why not move him along with signing Korpisalo? If you aren’t sure about Korpisalo, why the term/money? I am less bothered by the Tarasenko signing since it’s just a one-year commitment and he’s making less than Debrincat (who ostensibly he’s replacing). It’s in net where the cap problems are manifest, with two unproven ‘tenders who have multiple years left on (reasonably) hefty salaries. This entire mess means it’s almost certain that the overpaid Joseph gets moved (there’s no other contract that really works), barring a season-ending injury for someone.
The final thought is how bush league in appears to be that the NHL did not inform the prospective new owner about either the Pinto situation (suspended for sports gambling) or Dadonov‘s. It seems like they withheld the information to keep the price of the club as high as possible and I suspect, when the dust clears, the Sens might get a reprieve on their penalty similar to what happened to New Jersey in respect to the Kovalchuk debacle long ago (time will tell, but there’s no excuse for the NHL to not tell Andlauer, just as there was no excuse for Dorion to not tell Vegas about Dadonov–and I’m not the only person with this belief). All that aside, I’m glad Dorion’s gone and I hope Staios et al can help the team going forward.
In just-Dorion-things: the team lost their most talented AHL-prospect in Lassi Thomson for nothing on waivers (a move that does nothing to help the cap situation). Thomson was the only meaningful remainder from the Matt Duchene trade, which made him the only meaningful return for Bowen Byram. There’s no guarantee the affable 23-year old Finn is going to become a good NHLer–maybe he’s another Christian Wolanin or Max Lajoie (both currently on two-ways in Vancouver and Toronto respectively), but at least the team got something back in those cases (current Vegas Knight Michael Amadio and the scrapheap/two-way Flame known as Clark Bishop). Among pro-blueline prospects, Thomson was the best puck mover in their system (cf), so it’s difficult to express how stupid this was on Dorion’s part. You have to wonder if the Toure signing was made in preparation for putting Thomson on waivers, given that they play the same side (cf), although there’s no comparing their talent (as I said in the link above, I suspect Toure‘s contract will be considered a problem within ~2 years). It’s a suitably botched ending to the last piece of the Duchene deal and a lovely accent on Dorion’s self-created problems.
Dorion has received no criticism from the local media for losing Thomson (Mendes included), but he isgetting pushback on the fact that Shane Pinto remains unsigned (the Sens hilarious recent offer was revealed by Elliotte Friedman and that has finally forced some criticism). While the Mendes article is a mixed bag (Mathieu Joseph‘s contract is the problem), one interesting thing brought up is that there’s a limit to how much you can bury in the AHL (which is probably why so many teams magically get players on IR whenever inconvenienced by the cap): 1.15 million. I had thoughtDel Zotto‘s retirement freed up space, but no one has echoed that so apparently not. You also have to ask yourself what roster player makes that amount of money (or more) that you could bury–the answeris the aforementioned Joseph or Travis Hamonic, neither of whom is likely to get that treatment. It could also be a duo (neither Parker Kelly or Jacob Bernard-Docker are NHL players in my opinion), but is Dorion willing to do that? This is a mess of his own making, so we’ll see.
Pre-season mostly serves to eliminate players rather than reward them, but based on performance and media chatter (as in, the local media that largely serves as Dorion’s mouthpiece, but also including some others) through five of eight games has made a few judgements (excluding the established players). Who stood out? Roby Jarventie and Jiri Smejkal. The former is no surprise and I’ve been a fan of the talented Finn throughout. Smejkal, at his age, should be doing well in pre-season, although how much this really means remains an open question (I don’t think Jarventie is in the NHL barring a trade or injury, as Dorion has too many one-ways to make room for him and more developing wouldn’t hurt). On the opposite side, while he hasn’t been bad, no one is praising PTO Josh Bailey. Without roster moves there was no way for him to make the team anyway so I think his time with the team is simply as a showcase for the league.
As long expected Steve Staios, who has deep ties to Andlauer, has been hired as team president. I see this as the grim reaper knocking on Pierre Dorion’s future. I don’t expect head office moves to be made soon, but a poor start or missing the playoffs will put a merciful end to the Dorion-era.
The Sens have signedTarun Fizer to an AHL-contract, which is a credit to him and the most he could have hoped for from camp. There’s not a lot of room in Belleville (as we’ll get into in my BSens preview), but the talent on the roster has gaps so he has opportunities.
Speaking of the BSens, their camp has opened. Let’s briefly look at the roster, including the extra bodies floating around. ELCs assigned: Crookshank, Currie (vet), Daoust, Fizer (AHL-deal), McPhee (AHL-deal), Pilon (vet), Saulnier (AHL-deal); Heatherington (vet), MacKinnon (AHL-deal), Sebrango, Toure; Merilainen, Sinclair (AHL-deal). The invites: Grant Hebert, CL, DOB 1997, 22-23 ECHL 37-8-18-26 The former NCAA center is looking for an ECHL deal if he doesn’t already have one Mikael Robidoux, RW, DOB 1999, ECHL 42-9-7-16 QMJHLer is a fighter in the ECHL and that’s all he’ll be focused on Ryan Gagnon, DR, DOB 1996, ECHL 72-4-5-9 Canadian University grad played with Hebert and can only play physical Eric Williams, DR, DOB 1995, ECHL 16-2-2-4/AHL 9-0-0-0 Former NCAAer has become a fairly effective ECHL player who has had cups of coffee in the AHL (35 games) These are all older warm bodies to fill out the lineup, as the BSens roster is overflowing with players (cf) and none of the above address a missing need (the primary need is skill, especially on the blueline).
When the Sens traded for DeBrincat last summer I immediately compared it to Dorion’s 2017 trade for Matt Duchene–a disastrous decision that contributed to needing a rebuild in 2018. The reaction from the fanbase in both instances was virtually identical, although I think the feelings about Duchene himself remained more positive when he was moved. Before we get into today’s trade with Detroit, let’s briefly remind ourselves how that prior move went for Dorion (for the deep dive read the article above):
2017 To Ottawa: Matt Duchene To Nashville: Kyle Turris To Colorado: Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, 1st-2019 (1-4 Bowen Byram), 2019-3rd (Matthew Stienburg) 2018 To Ottawa: Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 1st-2019 (1-19 Lassi Thomson) To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
In retrospect Ottawa gave up Byram (and Stienburg) for less than two seasons of Duchene and prospect Thomson. I like Lassi, but I’d rather have Byram in my lineup. Let’s compare this to DeBrincat himself:
2022 To Ottawa: DeBrincat To Chicago: 1st-2022 (1-7 Kevin Korchinski), 2nd-2022 (Paul Ludwinski), 3rd-2024 2023 To Ottawa: Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, 1st-2024 (almost certain to be Boston’s), 4th-2024 To Detroit: DeBrincat
Because of the conditions attached to the 1st-round pick, it will likely be late (at best mid) and there’s no chance it’s in the top-10. Just like Duchene above, Dorion has converted a top-ten pick (the most successful part of the draft) into the crapshoot of later in the round for nothing (one meaningless season of DeBrincat). He lost a 2nd-round pick for nothing, and his 3rd has been turned into a 4th (almost certainly later than Ottawa’s own). There’s no question that in terms of future assets this is another enormous loss because everyone would rather have Bowen Byram and Kevin Korchinski on the Sens blueline rather than three meaningless seasons from Duchene and DeBrincat.
What about the tangible assets from the deal? What is being immediately injected into the Sens system?
Dominik Kubalik, LW, 6’2, DOB 95, 7-191/13 LA, 1yr/2.5 2021-22 Chi 78-15-17-32 2022-23 Det 81-20-25-45 He scored 30 goals in his rookie season with a talented Chicago team in 19-20, but his results the last two years are representative (receiving no boost from the NHL’s overall increase in scoring). If you were to slot his prior season in with Ottawa’s lineup he’s ahead of Shane Pinto and the idea has to be of him providing depth to the Sens otherwise anemic bottom-six (ahem, Mathieu Joseph). Kubalik was allowed to walk by the Blackhawks and Steve Yzerman has moved him after just one season–is that suggestive? Not necessarily, as Chicago was rebuilding and Detroit is retooling (and would rather have DeBrincat). He is, however, not locked in so the Sens can move him or walk away easily and it’s an excellent Cap hit for what he provides.
Donovan Sebrango, DL, 6’1, DOB 02, 3-63/20 Det, ELC/2yrs 2021-22 AHL 66-1-6-7 2022-23 AHL 39-4-3-7 This is an asset Yzerman wanted to be rid of (he spent about half of last season demoted to the ECHL–very much a Zach Senyshyn situation), so he’s part of the price the Sens have to pay to get rid of DeBrincat. He has two years left on his contract (including the upcoming one) and I suspect Dorion will look for a way to package him elsewhere before he finishes that out.
Let’s briefly assess and then summarize: Positives: the DeBrincat situation has been resolved before the start of the season; Kubalik is a useful NHL player and arrives with a good contract; the Sens regained some of the draft equity they squandered; they have cap space to find a free agent and lock-up players like Pinto, Sanderson, etc Negatives: Dorion (again!) overpaid for an asset he didn’t need so (again) failed to recoup the investment; just like with the Duchene trade above, there’s a good chance the entire fiasco ends with a modest asset like Lassi Thomson that is a pale shadow to what was given up in the first place; I don’t trust Dorion not to go overpay a free agent just to make a splash–I didn’t want five years for Korpisalo (or three years of Anton Forsberg for that matter) and I don’t want five years of an aging Tarasenko either (ask a stacked Rangers team how much he helped them). [The Detroit perspective doesn’t think much of the deal]
We can’t give the final assessment on the DeBrincat odyssey like we did with Duchene, but as it stands Dorion gave up: Kevin Korchinski (and Paul Ludwinski) for one season of DeBrincat in return for (possibly) one season of Kubalik and a late 1st-rounder. If that’s your return on investment, it’s time to get a new investor. Dorion rightfully received praise for some of the contracts he signed last summer (although lot’s not forget the hell he’s created for himself in that realm before, ala Colin White), but his ability to assess his team–where they are at, what they need–is hilariously and disastrously awful. Do we want to re-visit the Matt Murray trade? GMs are sometimes the victims of bad luck, but that’s not the case here. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Dorion needs to go before he permanently damages the rebuild.
My belief, expressed back in April, that the local rumours about moving DeBrincat ultimately originated from within the org, seem justified as Pierre Dorion has finally made public his desire to move the player. This dovetails into what I said when he was acquired back in the summer, which was that there was a good chance the deal would ultimately fail. Dorion has already admitted he has no hope of getting back the value he gave up for the player (a top-ten pick, an early 2nd, and a 3rd next draft), hoping for something like a 2nd or 3rd round pick. So, as I’ve asked repeatedly since he was acquired, what was the point of trading for him? One year of DeBrincat for what (moving from 26th to 20th overall)? Dorion tends to get a free pass and this has been helped this time by drip feeding this eventuality for the last two months. As I said last summer, his acquisition echoes that of Matt Duchene and with similar results (I’m not sure how many people realize Dorion has surrendered the 4th and 7th overall picks for players who didn’t get the team into the playoffs and who spent less than two seasons with the org). This is one of the reasons why I don’t trust Dorion and I’m hopeful his days as GM are numbered.
Dorion also talked about how the team has dealt with their RFAs: Qualified: Brannstrom, Pinto, Sokolov, Bernard-Docker, and Mandolese Not qualified: Gauthier, Gambrell, Lodin, Ferguson, Larsson, and Aspirot
Those not qualified all had arbitration rights and in theory could be brought back as FAs (I don’t know that any are worth bringing back, but keep that in mind–if I was going to guess there’s a chance someone like Aspirot could return on an AHL-deal). Among those qualified, only Brannstrom has arbitration rights, but I’d expect him to be signed and/or moved long before that. The only surprise for me was retaining Mandolese (cf), although that may be as an extra piece to move or as depth going forward.
It’s funny, but not long after saying the Sens didn’t need to add anymore skill, Mendes says that the team needs one or two top-six forwards. I can’t even pretend to understand what’s changed for him between June 9th to June 26th, but it echoes a similar about face from Marc Method on Zub’s contract (that change took about four months).
Yes, I remember the stupid advertisements for that movie, so now you can too. Headline aside, in the least surprisingly development of the season (cf), the Sens have signed Tyler Kleven (2-44/20) to an ELC. It’s a 3-year deal, which is plenty of time should he require seasoning in Belleville. For those who don’t recall, the Sens packaged two 2nd-round picks to Toronto (Roni Hirvonen (signed; Liiga 57-15-13-28) and Topi Niemela (signed; Liiga 58-8-10-18)) to acquire the pick they used for Kleven. Back in 2021, Corey Pronman (The Athletic) pegged him as a bottom-pairing defensemen, which hadn’t changed a year later. According to Dorion, he’ll play in a couple of NHL games. The signing isn’t about this season however, but next (I suspect in Belleville to start). The org likes to compare his hitting to Dion Phaneuf‘s, but hitting means less in the game than it has since (maybe) the Original Six, so I’m more interested in the other aspects of his game. As for his performance, remember that one good game doesn’t make him great and one bad game doesn’t make him awful–we’re looking for a body of work over time.
Another move the Sens made is bringing Leevi Merilainen over from Finland. Karpat’s season is over and the Sens goaltending situation is a mess, so the move makes sense. He’ll get some starts, as Mandolese‘s numbers have not been great in the AHL (.889), Sogaard and Ferguson are in Ottawa, Bibeau (.892) was awful returning from injury (5 goals and .861), and none of the other lower league goaltenders have performed well. Merilainen had one mediocre season in the OHL, but played well in Finland, so it will be interesting to see how he does with the BSens. I’m more excited for him than Kleven at this stage, largely because his potential impact is far greater (Pronman’s analysis, above, is cursory and based on his prior season–doesn’t make it wrong, but food for thought).
It’s funny how many goaltenders have to leave Ottawa to find their game. The 24-year old (soon to be 25) Filip Gustavsson is enjoying a career year in Minnesota. As a straight one-for-one trade it’s easy to compare his numbers with Cam Talbot: Gustavsson – 33GP 18-9-5 2.04 .932 Talbot – 32GP 15-14-1 2.85 .904 He leads in every category, but context is important: Minnesota is a better team (41-22-9 vs 35-32-5) and a better defensive team (197GA vs 233GA). There is some sort of Pierre Dorion karmic cycle in effect where most of his pro deals crash and burn. The Wild will undoubtedly keep Gus (an RFA) while Talbot (35+ UFA) was always imagined to be one-and-done. The Sens (going back to Bryan Murray) have had insanely inconsistent approaches with goaltenders and generally picked poorly on when to be patient and when to give up (Ben Bishop, Brian Elliott, Robin Lehner, Chris Driedger, and even depth ‘tenders like Joey Daccord). [After I posted this, The Athletic rated him as the second-best off-season acquisition among goaltenders in the NHL.]
eyeonthesens 