Senators News: October 10th; Ottawa 3 Los Angeles 4

-The Sens overcame a 3-0 deficit to lose to LA 4-3 in overtime.  I was unable to watch the game (alas), but from what I’ve been told the team struggled through much of the game (a lot of penalty trouble) before mounting a comeback.  Amelia L provides a thorough summary of the gameplay (there’s a shorter one from Travis Yost).  Here’s the boxscore.

Travis looks at the four-year trend in penalty-calling in the NHL and the Sens have the second worst ratio in the league, which illustrates the organisation has not sucked up enough to the people in charge of the officials (bravo Chicago!).  For those of you who think I’m being overly cynical…maybe, but given the roster (and coaching) turnover I’m don’t think trends like that should occur.

Sam Page says we don’t need to debate fighting because it’s dying already due to the evidence provided by advanced statistics.  There’s a lot of good stuff in this, but one thing Page says bothers me:

Most fans, I suspect, support fighting as the expression of a genuine and building frustration toward a rival team, or as a means of karmic retribution on the NHL’s worst pests.

I mean, do they?  That’s a huge assumption based on…nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  Given his reliance on facts in his article it’s a bad slip by Page.  Regardless, the meat of his article is solid:

How much exactly does an enforcer cost a team with his fumbling play? Derek Zona calculated that in 2010 the average goon took his team down one whole win in the standings, which seems like a small number until you look at the standings. Zona’s calculation holds up today. Hockey Prospectus records a statistic called GVT (Goals Versus Threshold) that attempts to measure, essentially, Wins Above Replacement (to borrow a sabermetric concept). Just doing some quick back-of-the-napkin math — using last year’s results and knowing that the average forward GVT was about 3.5, and about three goals are worth a team point in the standings.

Don Brennan favourite Zenon Konopka is among the worst offenders costing his team 3 wins by this measure.

Everyone knows that supergoons can’t play, but GMs tolerate their presence on rosters because they think they can get away with it. The trick is that they were never really getting away with it. Now an increasing number of NHL fans and teams realize that deterrence doesn’t work when goons only fight other goons. Roster spots are too precious.

That realisation clearly hasn’t sunk in for the Sens.

Kevin Klein makes the point that players can have positive Corsi numbers if they are surrounded by others who are actually driving them.  This may seem simplistic, but it does illustrate how a coach can “hide” a mediocre player.

-It’s not hockey related, but the general celebration going on for Alice Munro’s Nobel Prize made me think about my approach to awards in general–which is that they are political (have fun reading through Wikipedia for how pervasive that is) and essentially irrelevant when it comes to determining the qualitative importance of anything (which makes Scott Reynolds approach on deciding on the greatest players futile).  Amelia L‘s post made me think the point is that the symbolic importance is what matters–that is to say, how people perceive an award winner (like Munro) is more important than any intrinsic value the actual award has:

This is such a big deal. It wasn’t until the 1960s that you could actually take a Can Lit class at a Canadian university. Today, despite numerous internationally recognized Canadian authors, Can Lit classes and Canadianist scholars are still looked down on by some in English Departments. I’ve attended universities known for their focus on Canadian literature and even at these institutions, when Canadianist scholars retire, they aren’t replaced by Canadianists. Canadianist scholars have to demonstrate their versatility in English departments, hired because of the other things they can teach and not their focus on Canadian literature. A Canadian winning the Nobel Prize for Literature should be celebrated news in those institutions. When I used to hold office hours at the University College building on the University of Western Ontario campus, I often thought about two things: that Alice Munro used to walk those same halls and that these cockroaches are gross. While Munro has long been a celebrated author, at Canadian universities we still deal with people who are “not interested in teaching books by women” in 2013.

I’ve always thought the problem for Canadian Lit were that the authors selected for study (as a long-suffering English major I’d like to punch Michael Ondaatje in the face for his pretentious garbage).  The attitude towards women authors is, of course, idiotic, but then there are people who don’t like to read at all–so Darwin award winners exist aplenty in the species.  But to go back to awards (which dovetails into my indifference for who gets them in the NHL) if this helps the perception of Canadian authors then bravo to The Swedish Academy for shining a light where it was needed.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: October 9th

Craig Anderson will get the start against the Kings.  Lines seem to be: Michalek-Spezza/Da Costa-Ryan, MacArthur-Turris-Conacher, Greening-Smith-Neil, Kassian-Pageau-Condra.  Da Costa will play if Spezza can’t.

-I have no idea why anyone is getting excited/anxious about Bobby Ryan and Nichols traces the concern back not to the fanbase but to the media.  Fake controversies are nothing new, albeit they remain extremely annoying.

-The Sens have posted their first prospect update.

Mark Parisi talks about the nature of groin injuries by quoting a pair of doctors at length–for those interested in the mechanics of it, it’s very thorough.

Mika Zibanejad was interviewed by Ian Mendes and Nichols transcribes it for us–noteworthy in that Mika says all the right things.

-Here’s my prediction for the Binghamton Senators.  Bob Howard, who covers the B-Sens, see’s things a little differently, although I don’t think his argument of success through toughness works.

-Speaking of Binghamton, Jeff Ulmer offers a blow-by-blow account of their game against Syracuse.

Josh W explores how luck impacts analytics when it comes to predicting outcomes in hockey (the article assumes you are familiar with the concepts therein) and while admitting to a small sample size his conclusions are interesting.

It was interesting to see that the AHL has more parity than the NHL, my assumption would be that is because it is talent that is near the same, people who are just below NHL talent level, or younger players developing. You don’t see the superstars that the NHL would have. Also interesting is how stable the OHL is versus the QMJHL, but that could be a small sample size. Another thing that I was surprised to see, although it makes sense by inspection, that talent does not equal parity. This goes hand in hand with the NHL vs KHL. The KHL is the league closest to the NHL (at least in terms of NHL equivalency points, assuming the NHL is the top league). Leagues with much lower talent have more parity than the KHL (I.e. the ECHL). So while parity != talent, as parity is the difference between your best and worst teams, the less parity your league has the easier it is to predict the leagues. The more parity the closer the games move towards a coin flip.

-The absurd idea that Kay Whitmore can police goaltending equipment throughout the NHL does not get any bolster from Pierre LeBrun‘s brief mention:

I’ll be going around more [this year], doing more unexpected visits to rinks around the league

“More” than what?  Why is it just Whitmore?  One man cannot police the goaltending community and the idea that it’s working is only going to be bolstered if someone gets suspended–something that has yet to occur and I don’t expect it to happen this season.

Lance Hornby looks at how Borje Salming opened the door to the influx of Europeans into the NHL.

Ian C McLaren looks at hockey fandom and why there’s so much acrimony and his best point is this:

Last spring, Jeff Marek made an interesting point on the MvsW podcast that speaks to the divisive nature of sports fandom. His basic premise was that sports marketing and culture is set up to create and “us vs them” mentality, and that this is expressed most clearly in the use of “(Blank) Nation” or “(Blank) Army” or “(Blank)Fam” *barf* to describe a fan base. What this does is establish a mobilization of the fans wherein we feel as though we are actually part of the battle, so to speak.

This is absolutely the case, although I’ve always found broadcasters much more annoying than fans of opposing teams (I mean really, can we blame someone for cheering their team on in the opposing building?).  I’m less fond of this chestnut McLaren poses:

For example, if Player X on Team Y commits an act that we deem to be egregious, we demand that he be suspended and label the player and the team a certain way. BUT, if Player Z on my favorite team commits a similar act, well then we spin it any which way to make it out to be not so bad, that the world is just out to get us.

Is it really that simplistic?  Can we accept without discussion that people are that stupid?  Has it ever been seriously studied?  To my mind it’s all based on context; there’s a wide range of actions that occur on the ice and there’s a big difference between a player who chirps and commits minor fowls to rankle the opposition versus head hunters like Raffi Torres or Matt Cooke.  The fact that all actions are lumped together just doesn’t pass the smell test.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Binghamton’s AHL Preview

It’s time to take a look at the Binghamton Senators in the context of their conference and measure expectations (I did the same last year and underestimated how much they would improve).  Even more so than the NHL, the AHL has gone through a lot of changes between seasons as a number of top players have moved: Chad Kolarik (Wilkes-Barre) and T. J. Hensick (Peoria) signed in Sweden, Darren Haydar (Chicago) signed in Germany, Logan Pyett (Connecticut) signed in Russia (Ryan Potulny did as well, but has been released); Tyler Johnson (Tampa) has graduated to the NHL; Kris Newbury moved from Connecticut to Adirondack, Mark Mancari moved from Rochester to Chicago, Martin St. Pierre moved from Rockford to Hamilton, Justin Fontaine moved from Houston to Iowa, David Leggio moved from Rochester to Hershey, Danny Syvret moved from Adirondack to Hartford, and Mike McKenna moved from Peoria to Springfield.

Every team in the league has received an influx of unexpected talent, although the amount added varies from roster to roster.  As fans there’s a tendency to over value ones own prospects.  It’s also worth remembering that dominant prospects don’t stay in the league for long (and therefore don’t impact the results)–dominant AHL players tend to be veterans.

Binghamton plays in the East Division of the Eastern Conference (where half of their games will be played).  Their division consists of: Hershey (Washington), Norfolk (Anaheim), Syracuse (Tampa Bay), and Wilkes-Barre (Pittsburgh).  The B-Sens finished second in their division and fifth in their conference last season.  What follows is a look at the teams in their division featuring the key turnovers on their rosters (rookies are in italics, other roster additions are in green, anyone who spent most of their time in the NHL is in bold; points from last season are in brackets; I’ve ignored roster losses via players who were in the AHL only during the lockout portion of last season):

Binghamton (44-24-8, 2nd division)
Forwards: Mika Zibanejad (20), Mark Stone (38), Shane Prince (35), Cole Schneider (35), Corey Cowick (35), Derek Grant (28), Mike Hoffman (28), Andre Petersson (5), Matt Puempel (OHL 46)
Defense: Chris Wideman (18), Mark Borowiecki (14), Tyler Eckford (13), Cody Ceci (OHL 64), Troy Rutkowski (WHL 66)
Goaltenders: Nathan Lawson (2.19), Andrew Hammond (NCAA 2.47)
Key losses: Robin Lehner (NHL), Stephane Da Costa (NHL), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NHL), Pat Cannone (Peoria), Hugh Jessiman (KHL), Brett Lebda (FA)

The B-Sens choose to add no new veteran players to their lineup, simply re-signing Lawson and keeping Eckford (who is in the final year of his two-year deal).  All the cavalry added are prospects either drafted or signed by the organisation.  Binghamton hasn’t had a dominant scorer the last two seasons and unless Zibanejad spends most of his time in the AHL it will be scoring by committee again, with the blueline’s contribution very much up in the air.  This edition of the team is similar to the one denuded of NHL prospects back in January, but that squad was only slightly above .500 and any change is reliant on internal development.  Barring major roster changes I think Binghamton will take a step back and finish fourth in the division (with 38 wins or so).

Hershey (36-31-9, 4th division); 10 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Jeff Taffe (71), Casey Wellman (53), Brandon Segal (44), Michael Latta (38), Garrett Mitchell (30), Peter Leblanc (30), Matt Watkins (30), Jamie Johnson (KHL 22), Derek Whitmore (DEL 23)
Defense: Tomas Kundratek (31), David Kolomatis (28), Chay Genoway (25), Dmitri Orlov (17), Tyson Strachan (4)
Goaltenders: Philipp Grubauer (2.25), David Leggio (2.56)
Key losses: Zach Hamill (Utica), Jon DiSalvatore (DEL), Boyd Kane (KHL), Garrett Stafford (SHL), Dany Sabourin (Austria), Ryan Potulny (FA)
Blog: Sweetest Hockey On Earth covers the Bears

The Bears lost a ton of veterans in the off-season, but have replaced them with others and aren’t reliant on the progress of younger players.  They should improve on last year’s results (the addition of Leggio should help a great deal) and challenge for the division title.

Norfolk (37-34-5, 5th division); 8 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Peter Holland (39), Devante Smith-Pelly (32), Brad Staubitz (2), Steven Whitney (NCAA 45), Rickard Rakell (OHL 44), Stefan Noesen (OHL 53), Antoine Laganiere (NCAA 29)
Defense: Alex Grant (20), Garnet Exelby (9), Nolan Yonkman (7), Ryan Parent (5)
Goaltenders: Frederik Andersen (2.19), Igor Bobkov (3.13), John Gibson (OHL 2.41)
Key losses: Patrick Maroon (NHL), Sami Vatanen (NHL), Nate Guenin (Lake Erie)
Blog: Vulture’s Row covers the Admirals

In the absence of Vatanen and Lindholm (both currently in Anaheim) this is an offensively challenged blueline and a very young forward group.  Goaltending looks like a strong suit, but will the team score enough?  Without great results from rookies I just can’t see the Admirals doing well and I expect them to be last in the division.

Syracuse (43-22-11, 1st division); 10 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Brett Connolly (63), Evan Rankin (31), J. T. Brown (28), Vladislav Namestnikov (21), Dana Tyrell (4), Tanner Richard (OHL 62), Nikita Kucherov (QMJHL 63)
Defense: Matt Taormina (24), Dmitry Korobov (22), Jean-Philippe Cote (17), Nikita Nestorov (KHL 0)
Goaltenders: Cedrick Desjardins (2.12), Riku Helenius (2.57)
Key losses: Tyler Johnson (NHL), Ondrej Palat (NHL), Mark Barberio (NHL), RIchard Panik (NHL), Alex Killorn (NHL), Radko Gudas (NHL), Andrej Sustr (NHL), Pierre Cedric-Labrie (NHL), J. T. Wyman (Lake Erie), Dan Sexton (Liiga)
Blog: I could only find an official feed (Lindsay Kramer) for the Crunch, although undoubtedly there are fan sites out there

Another team that’s going young (at the moment 8 players off last year’s roster have graduated to Tampa), although it’s likely that one or both of Sustr and Barberio will be returned to the team along with one of Panik, Palat, or Killorn.  If only one or two (or none) of those players are returned to the roster they will take a step back as all the meaningful replacement has been internal (much like Binghamton).  In the absence of significant additions I think the Crunch will also have scoring issues and I’m not sold on their goaltending.  I do think players will be sent down to balance the lineup out enough for Syracuse to finish third in the division.

Wilkes-Barre (42-30-4, 3rd division); 8 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Andrew Ebbett (6), Nick Drazenovic (53), Chris Connor (40), Brian Gibbons (30), Paul Thompson (29), Harry Zolnierczyk (19), Tom Kostopoulos (7)
Defense: Simon Despres (7), Brian Dumoulin (24), Brendan Mikkelson (2), Scott Harrington (OHL 19)
Goaltenders: Peter Mannino (2.47), Eric Hartzell (NCAA 1.57), Jeff Deslauriers (ECHL 3.25)
Key losses: Beau Bennett (NHL), Jeff Zatkoff (NHL), Trevor Smith (Toronto), Alex Grant (Norfolk), Riley Holzapfel (SHL), Chad Kolarik (SHL), Dylan Reese (KHL), Brad Thiessen (Liiga)
Blog: another official blog (Jonathan Bombulie)

Like Hershey the Penguins lost a lot of veterans in the off-season, but like their rival they have replaced them with others.  Bennett will likely stay in the big leagues while Zatkoff should be returned at some point (Deslauriers is on a PTO).  Despite all the changes I don’t think Wilkes-Barre has taken a step back and should be at least as effective as they were last season, so they’ll challenge for first in the division, but finish behind the Bears.

To sum up my expectations (given the above lineups, minus one or two changes):
Hershey
Wilkes-Barre
Syracuse
Binghamton
Norfolk

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: October 7th; Ottawa 4, Toronto 5 (SO)

-Ottawa lost 5-4 to Toronto in a shootout in a game I was unable to watch (Mark Parisi has a brief overview of it and points out Craig Anderson has not done well in shootouts of late); the general sentiment I’ve heard is that the second line was great, but the rest of the team was not (as Travis Yost echoes).  Scott had the scoring chances 20-26 (they were 27-18 in the Buffalo game).  Here is the boxscore.

Yost likes what he’s seen from the Sens other than their penalty killing, where he believes Eric Gryba‘s absence can’t be replaced, but he’s a detriment outside the PK.  Scott thinks Erik Karlsson isn’t himself and believes it may be months before he is; Matt Kassian doesn’t deter anything; and Elliotte Friedman has finally figured out Mika Zibanejad‘s demotion was money-related.

Varada looks at the issue of fighting in hockey and he dismisses the ethical side of things because:

Who cares if thousands die in car accidents every year, I hate the bus! Once again, with feeling: people enjoy fighting enough not to care if someone is hurt doing it.

I didn’t know selective enjoyment answered ethics questions, but god knows most people don’t want actual ethics debates so I understand why Varada wants to skip over it.  I do like his approach to how fighting fits into the game:

Just as the shootout is viewed as a gimmicky aberration detracting from the purity of a well-contested, TEAM-based exploit, I have to ask how two ‘specialists’ dropping gloves to stop the course of play isn’t also gimmicky.

Touche good sir!  People who hate the shootout almost inevitably love fighting.  Fighting is literally disconnected from playing hockey–officials blow the whistle and the fists fly outside of game time.

SkinnyFish (who supports keeping fighting in the game without really going into why) demolishes the notion that fighters deter other nasty behaviour in opposing teams by using the statistical evidence.

-Varada (same link above) also thinks the Zibanejad demotion is the same as Karlsson‘s in his rookie season–I don’t follow this at all as the context in completely different (and no, it does not save a year of his ELC, but that question from Varada might explain why he doesn’t explore the financial elements behind the move).

Mike Glotov writes a massive blog containing his thoughts about the Sens this season.  After a summary of off-season events he delves into comparisons based on various roster moves (eg ConacherSilfverberg).  He hopes the Sens won’t suffer the same injury-woes as last season (I wouldn’t count on it in terms of Spezza and Michalek), which is grouped among seven hopes/expectations.  There’s a lot to read and as long as you don’t mind wading through Google translation’s iffy Russian it’s well worth it.

-Binghamton beat Syracuse 4-3 in overtime, with Zibanejad tying the game in the third and Cody Ceci winning it in overtime (Lawson picked up the victory).  Here’s the boxscore and the highlightsStone was hurt in the game with a possible shoulder injury.

-BSens practice lines: Robinson-Zibanejad-Puempel; Prince-O’Brien-Petersson; Dziurzynski-Grant-Hoffman; Cowick-Culek-Schneider/Kramer; Borowiecki-Ceci; Claesson-Rutkowski; Wideman-Blood; Eckford-Sdao.

-Hockey’s Future previews the AHL’s Eastern Conference and says this about Binghamton:

After an impressive season for both Binghamton and their parent Ottawa, Binghamton fell flat in the Calder Cup Playoffs, getting swept by Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in the first round. With another positive outlook for the Senators organization with little change in the roster, expect a similar regular season record in 2013-14. Up front, look for the continued development of Mika Zibanejad, who played with Ottawa in 2013. The Senators decided he needed some more seasoning, so he’ll see some more time in Binghamton. Zibanejad is joined by finishing specialist Matt Puempel and grinder Mark Stone. Also, look out for Shane Prince, Mike Hoffman and Derek Grant. The forward-heavy Senators’ defensive corps are highlighted by the arrival of Cody Ceci, the 19-year-old 2012 first round draft pick who played in six games for Binghamton last season. Ceci has the size (6’3”, 203 lbs.) to compete at the NHL level, but needs some time to learn to use that size. He has offensive upside and should see time on the power-play and penalty kill. Ceci is joined by Mark Borowieck, a stay-at-home defenseman with a penchant for pugilism, and Frederik Claesson, a defender in the mode of Dennis Seidenberg; he’ll get the job done, but you won’t notice him for it.

I’m not sure what to make of this–it’s pretty generic, but contains a couple of puzzling comments (Stone as a grinder and Claesson as a Seidenberg-style player?).

-The Devils sent four players to Elmira.  The Jackals opened their pre-season with a 5-4 win over Wheeling despite trailing 4-0 in the second.  None of Binghamton’s players were dressed for the game.

This article is written by Peter Levi

Senators News: October 5th; Ottawa 1 Buffalo 0

-The Sens opened their season with a win last night in a game filled with chances (a combined 81 shots, establishing a new benchmark for shots (39) in the first without a goal) but only one goal, as Erik Karlsson scored late in the third to give the team and Craig Anderson the win over Ryan Miller.  The game was sloppy and back and forth–Ottawa dominated the first period and latter half of the third (Travis Yost points out the Sens won the game’s Corsi battle).  Amelia L provides a blow-by-blow account of the game for those who missed it.

-Ottawa faces Toronto tonight with two changes: Joe Corvo replaces Eric Gryba and Stephane Da Costa sits for Matt Kassian.  The Leafs are 2-0 to start the season and James Reimer is expected to start.

Michael Farber looks at the NHL’s efforts to improve goal scoring (with the long delayed reduction of goalie equipment being the centerpiece, although Brian Hayward says there’s lot’s left to shrink).  The league realises that goals are what bring in casual fans–they don’t care about good defensive hockey–but other than the brief period of obstruction calling in 05-06 has been inept in making that happen.

Clarke MacArthur is not a fan of Randy Carlyle:

He runs the show there, and everyone knows that, and that’s the way it is. It’s worked for him in the past, he’s got a Cup from that, but at the same time there’s other ways to do things, too. Some guys are good with it. Some guys are good with the criticism, but they don’t want to hear it every single shift they come off the ice. You’re old enough to know ‘I made a mistake,’ you don’t need to hear it every five seconds. He [Grabovski] said it all right there. He certainly didn’t have a tight lip about it. That was something to see. He was frustrated. He was a guy who had 30 goals and two years of 55 or whatever points (58 and 51) and Randy came in, it just didn’t work out, he turned him into a checker. Look at him now, four points in his first game, three goals. Who was right there? I know who’s right.

I thought I’d mentioned Grabovski‘s comments back in July (you can see them in the link), but apparently was too caught up in Daniel Alfredsson‘s departure to get to it.

-Here is Binghamton’s lineup against Syracuse: Matt Puempel-Mika Zibanejad-Mark Stone, Shane Prince-Jim O’Brien-Andre Petersson, Mike Hoffman-Derek Grant-David Dziurzynski, Corey Cowick-Wacey Hamilton-Cole Schneider; Mark Borowiecki-Cody Ceci, Michael Sdao-Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson-Troy RutkowskiLawson will get the start.  Scratches: Buddy Robinson, Darren Kramer, Jakub Culek, Tyler Eckford, and Ben Blood.  I find Robinson‘s exclusion the most surprising, but everything else seems par for the course (the mystery of Hamilton continues).  I haven’t seen the full lineup posted for the Crunch, but the top line will be Namestnikov-Connolly-Kucherov and one of Desjardins/Helenius will start.

-Elmira signed center Philip-Michael Davos, who spent all last season playing for Syracuse.  Along with the signing the Jackals announced their training camp roster (those in italics are on tryouts, with their league of origin in square brackets; those sent by Binghamton are in green):
Goaltenders (3): Scott Greenham, Nick Niedert [ECHL-FHL-CHL-SPHL], Mike McDonald [NCAA]
Defensemen (13): Danny New, Patch Alber, Dylan Quaile, Kyle Bushee, Jordon Southorn, Pat O’Keefe, Mathieu Gagnon, Zach McCullough, Mike Monfredo, Scott Morongell [NCAA], Vincent Richer, Matt Caranci [FHL]
Forwards (21): Ludwig Karlsson, Danny Hobbs, Philip-Michael Davos, Corey Bellamy, Matt Carter, Dan Barczuk, Olivier Croteau, Artem Demkov, Rob Bellamy, Michael Beaudry, Brandon Blandina, Jordan Pietrus, Justin Gvora, Alexandre Carrier, Dane Walters, Jean Bourbeau, Cody Dion [Finland tier-3], Tyler Noseworthy [ECHL-FHL-SPHL], Locke Jillson [CHL], Edgar Rybakov [MHL tier-2], Brett Leonard [FHL]

Niedert tried out for the Jackals last season as well (he played for eight different teams last year through four leagues), but I suspect neither he nor McDonald will wind up sharing duties with Greenham.  Most (if not all) the tryout players will be replaced by those sent down from the AHL.

This article is written by Peter Levi

Senators News: October 4th

-Ottawa opens its season against Buffalo tonight and here are the expected lineups: Michalek-Spezza-Ryan, MacArthur-Turris-Conacher,  Greening-Pageau-Condra, Smith-Da Costa-Neil; Methot-Karlsson, Cowen-Wiercioch, Phillips-Gryba; Anderson will get the start.

James Gordon did a Q&A with Paul MacLean and the only comment I wanted to reference was this one:

Our biggest enemy right now isn’t Toronto, Boston, Detroit or any other team in the game, it’s ourselves. We can be our own worst enemy, thinking that we get picked to be this team, picked to be that team, and now we start getting away from how we had to do things to be successful.

This is a little sanguine–quality of the roster does impact wins and loses–but I think it is better to be focussed on what you can control and that’s where MacLean’s attention is.

Nichols examines storylines to look forward to this season (including a reference to Melnyk’s CSI team, which I always enjoy) and because of how many he lists I’ll address those that interested me in point form:
-where will Ottawa’s overpaid fifth defenseman (Chris Phillips) will be next season – my guess is playing for a different team, but I thought that when he was re-signed last time as well, so take that for what it’s worth
-how will the Cowen-Wiercioch pairing work out – I think it will be fine in the long run, but I do anticipate frantic fans losing their shit if they have a bad game early in the season
-how healthy will the team be?  The injury-prone players (like Jason Spezza and Milan Michalek) will miss time–sorry poolies!
-what about Spezza‘s captaincy?  As I’ve said before it seems largely meaningless
-how much will Craig Anderson will regress – my guess is that he’ll return to his average numbers when he’s played a full season (I don’t like Nichols’ comparison to Dominic Hasek, since NHL scoring was much higher in 05/06 than it was last season)
-the Sens have great depth at center – true, although they lack anyone who could actually replace Spezza; I agree with him that Da Costa‘s days are numbered
-Nichols ponders what Cory Conacher‘s production will be like and I wonder too, but I expect it will reflect the second half of his season last year
-how long will Zibanejad remain in the minors and I agree with him that it won’t be long
-how will the Sens deal with greater expectations?  I think it’s less how it impacts the team and more how it impacts their opposition, but there are so many variables within a season I don’t think there’s a single, blanket answer
-finally he wonders about the relationship between the fans and the organisation and I think that’s a poorly way of framing it–I think the relationship between fans and the organisation is fine, it’s fans and ownership where the strain begins and as cost-related decisions begin to impact the roster more it will get very ugly

Ian Mendes has a similar column and the only difference worth mentioning is him openly wondering if Jean-Gabriel Pageau can live up to the hype.

-The boys at WTYKY make some amusing predictions.

-Binghamton made its first cuts yesterday sending AHL-contracts Danny Hobbs, Danny New, and Scott Greenham to Elmira.  The only ELC player to join them was Ludwig Karlsson.  This means the B-Sens have 25 players on their roster, which seems a bit bloated so I wouldn’t be surprised to see players like Ben Blood or Jakub Culek sent down at some point.

-Binghamton lines at practice ahead of tomorrow’s season opener: Puempel-Zibanejad-Stone; Prince-O’Brien-Petersson; Hoffman-Grant-Dziurzynski; Schneider-Hamilton-Cowick; Kramer-Culek-Robinson; Borowiecki-Ceci; Claesson-Rutkowski; Eckford-Wideman; Sdao-Blood.  It’s early for line combinations to remain steady so a lot could change, but my projections from the summer aren’t that far off (granting I didn’t foresee either O’Brien or Zibanejad in Binghamton).

Mika Zibanejad clocks in at #20 on Hockey’s Future top-50 prospect list (five behind now-Duck Jakob Silfverberg):

The Swedish center provided quality depth for the Senators in his first season as a full-time NHL player. Offensively, he finished with seven goals, 13 assists for 20 points and a plus-nine rating. Creative with the puck, he could find room to operate or drive through bodies towards the goal. Zibenajed’s swift skating also allows him to be effective at both ends of the ice. Opposing teams took note of the youngster’s commitment to getting back on defense, pestering the on-rushing player on the back-check. The offseason acquisition of Bobby Ryan could further enhance the 20-year-old’s development as a top-six forward in the organization, but that pairing will happen at a later date as Zibanejad will begin the 2013-14 season in the AHL.

ESPN polled players on various questions and most of the results aren’t particularly interesting, but Matt Cooke did win the dirtiest player vote by a very large margin.

-We already know fighting has no real impact on the game and that the “tradition” of a one-dimensional enforcer is not that old, but Eric Macramalla wonders if the NHL could be sued over injuries sustained from the practice.

Players today would have some obstacles to overcome if they wanted to be successful in court. First, the collective bargaining agreement, which is agreed upon by the players, provides that issues of player health and safety go to arbitration and not court. The final hurdle for player to overcome is something at law called causation. How does a player show that his brain damage was caused as a result of playing in the NHL? Very sadly, this is one limitation facing the Derek Boogaard lawsuit against the NHL. Boogaard fought for nine seasons in the WHL, ECHL and AHL before playing the NHL. It may not be clear where the damage was caused. While these hurdles may discourage a lawsuit, they don’t completely remove the risk of one materializing. Merits of a case aside, a player may still elect to sue the league if, for example, he believes that the league is responsible for brain trauma sustained while playing. And a lawsuit would bring with it negative publicity for the game. No business likes that, and the NHL is likely no different.

My theory is that once the CHL bans fighting the NHL will follow suit (unless a player dies on the ice first), but time will tell.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: October 2nd

-There are a lot of reasons to love Robin Lehner and here’s another:

My biggest dream right now is to stay in this organization and play hockey here for my whole career.

Varada has a lot to say about Jared Cowen, worried that the blueliner really hasn’t established himself as the player the Sens think they have.  It’s an understandable concern, particularly given his injury woes.

Amelia L wonders what the Sens’ penalty killing will look like and I think her reasoning is sound (Methot-Cowen, Phillips-Gryba/Karlsson; Condra, Pageau, Greening plus Turris).

Travis Yost has three questions about the current Sens roster:
1. How long will the Stephane Da Costa experiment last?  My guess: not long (5-10 games, as I suggested on Monday).
2. Will Mika Zibanejad be the first call-up?  It depends on who is hurt/underperforming, but in general I think he will be.
3. Are there big things ahead for Kyle Turris and Clarke MacArthur?  I really don’t know–are “big things” scoring?  I think they’ll play well, but that means different things to different people.

Peter Morrow offers a potpourri look at Sens prospects and I have no idea why he’s listed Mike Hoffman as unsigned (it seems it’s because his contract expires after this season, but that applies to a lot of prospects in the system and doesn’t match his designation of other, actual unsigned players).  He picks Chris Driedger to breakout, but he’s already had a breakout season (invite to WJC camp) and how can he decide Tobias Lindberg is due for a breakout when he can’t find much information on him?  The post isn’t all bad, I just find some of his choices a little puzzling.

H. Mikael wrote about when NHL players hit their goal-scoring peak and it’s an interesting theory:

NHL goal scorers tend to peak statistically earlier [age 25] in their careers than goalies, hard-workers and other less skilled positions such as defense (in general). Factors may include faster skating speed & a youthful willingness to sacrifice their bodies around opposing goal creases on a more frequent basis. After peaking relatively early, most goal scorers generally seem to “plateau” around the 30-45 goal mark for a number of years before fizzling out completely.

Mikael’s data-set is heavily focussed on players from the 80s because declining production in the NHL means very few players have hit his watermark of 500 goals since then.  It would be interesting to see someone take his approach but put the bar low enough to see if the demographic he discovered fits for players over the last 15-20 years.  Regardless, it’s very interesting food for thought.

George Parros was hurt in a meaningless fight with Colton Orr–the league and many journalists have circled the wagons to defend the practice and will continue to do so until a) they get meaningfully sued by someone, or b) a player dies.  Until then, brain injuries are good and everything like that.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: October 1st

-It has been a day since the Mika Zibanejad decision was made and opinions and arguments proliferate.  For me, it’s not the end of the world for either the player or the team, but it’s sad that finances played any part in that decision (something very poorly disguised since Melnyk can’t keep his mouth shut).  For Binghamton fans I say rush out and enjoy Zbad while you can–he won’t be there long.  Nichols sums up the hockey side of the decision:

I’m all for sending guys messages, but it’s worth reminding fans that this is the time of year when asset management plays just as much a part of the decision-making process as a player’s performance in the small sample size known as the NHL preseason. Of the players remaining from last season’s roster, only Kyle Turris (Ottawa’s leading scorer) had more points than Zibanejad’s 20 (7 goals and 13 assists). So it is somewhat interesting to see that 4 or 5 games worth of preseason hockey have undone what Zibanejad did over the course of 42 meaningful NHL games last season. I mean there was very little not to like with Mika‘s rookie campaign. By scoring chances at even-strength he ended the season in dominant fashion. As a 19 year old his points per game stacks up very well against recent history. Even things that were an initial weakness like faceoffs, showed growth, first 21 games last year he won 43%, last 21 games he won 47%. Through the preseason he was winning 57% of his faceoffs.  Furthermore, Zibanejad‘s shot per game rate (3.25) was the third highest in camp — better than Ryan, better than Turris, better than MacArthur.

So performance (which wasn’t questioned during the pre-season until he was sent down) is not really the issue.  Along with the obvious financial savings, Nichols echoes my point that the Sens are trying to manage the asset that is Stephane Da Costa.

Da Costa has done little (4 goals and 7 points in 37 NHL games) to restore faith that he’s going to going to be an NHL player or the second coming of Adam Oates. Now that he’s in the final year of his contract and no longer exempt from waivers, Da Costa showed up in camp 10 lbs heavier than he was last season – thanks to spending the offseason training with his brother Teddy in Poland. I can’t imagine Da Costa doing enough to earn his keep [at the NHL level].

One correction for Nichols: Da Costa signed a one-year contract, so he’s not at the end of the ELC (which he seems to imply here).  I think the ship has sailed for Da Costa–I believe management is aware of it, but they would rather move him for something than have him spend another season in Binghamton taking playing time away from other prospects.  I see the roster move as a last ditch attempt to squeeze some value from the Frenchmen.

Nichols transcribes Bryan Murray’s interview on whatever The Team 1200 is now, but there’s not much to take from it.

-Gary Bettman was talking and both Nichols and Travis Yost had thoughts.  Travis believes Bettman admitted to the NHL having a critical list of troubled teams.  I like how vaguely Bettman speaks:

They [Phoenix, New Jersey, and Florida] were probably never as bad off as was being suggested.

They probably weren’t?  If they weren’t in trouble he would be preaching it from the mountain tops, so clearly they were.  It’s a good illustration of how the commissioner speaks.  Another interesting comment:

We believe that under the system we have, every team should be in a position to afford to be competitive – that is the goal. I suppose in any particular year, a club could have some issues either on the revenue side or the expense side which could cause them not to have the bottom line performance that they want, but overall, the long-term goal is to keep everyone competitive in a way that they can afford to.

To me this admits that Ottawa should be financially sound and that their problems are not derived from the mechanism of the NHL system and rather from ownership issues outside of that.

Hockey’s Future has been counting down it’s top-50 prospects and Robin Lehner clocks in at #34.

Lehner heads into the 2013-14 season having firmly established himself as the Senators goaltender of the future. He will begin the year as the backup to workhorse veteran Craig Anderson, but should see a fair amount of starts of his own. Standing at 6’4 and over 220 pounds, Lehner‘s greatest asset is his size and athleticism, which he has learned to use to his full advantage over the past couple of seasons. He is also very experienced for a 22-year-old, having already played three full seasons at the professional level. Like many talented goaltenders, Lehner‘s own mind can sometimes be his worst enemy. He can get easily agitated, which has affected his game. That said, even if he remains hot-headed throughout his career, he carries himself with enough confidence and has enough skill that it is only a matter of time before he is an NHL starter.

Worsteverything writes about the pre-season saying it was the most over analysed one yet, but I didn’t find the coverage any more exhaustive than previously (in fact, this year featured more complaints from bloggers about the pre-season than I can remember).  He’s right to echo the point that performance in pre-season means nothing going forward (but see above).

-Various predictions are making the rounds and Allan Muir see’s the Sens losing the Cup final.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)