When the Sens traded for DeBrincat last summer I immediately compared it to Dorion’s 2017 trade for Matt Duchene–a disastrous decision that contributed to needing a rebuild in 2018. The reaction from the fanbase in both instances was virtually identical, although I think the feelings about Duchene himself remained more positive when he was moved. Before we get into today’s trade with Detroit, let’s briefly remind ourselves how that prior move went for Dorion (for the deep dive read the article above):
2017
To Ottawa: Matt Duchene
To Nashville: Kyle Turris
To Colorado: Andrew Hammond, Shane Bowers, 1st-2019 (1-4 Bowen Byram), 2019-3rd (Matthew Stienburg)
2018
To Ottawa: Vitaly Abramov, Jonathan Davidsson, 1st-2019 (1-19 Lassi Thomson)
To Columbus: Matt Duchene, Julius Bergman
In retrospect Ottawa gave up Byram (and Stienburg) for less than two seasons of Duchene and prospect Thomson. I like Lassi, but I’d rather have Byram in my lineup. Let’s compare this to DeBrincat himself:
2022
To Ottawa: DeBrincat
To Chicago: 1st-2022 (1-7 Kevin Korchinski), 2nd-2022 (Paul Ludwinski), 3rd-2024
2023
To Ottawa: Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, 1st-2024 (almost certain to be Boston’s), 4th-2024
To Detroit: DeBrincat
Because of the conditions attached to the 1st-round pick, it will likely be late (at best mid) and there’s no chance it’s in the top-10. Just like Duchene above, Dorion has converted a top-ten pick (the most successful part of the draft) into the crapshoot of later in the round for nothing (one meaningless season of DeBrincat). He lost a 2nd-round pick for nothing, and his 3rd has been turned into a 4th (almost certainly later than Ottawa’s own). There’s no question that in terms of future assets this is another enormous loss because everyone would rather have Bowen Byram and Kevin Korchinski on the Sens blueline rather than three meaningless seasons from Duchene and DeBrincat.
What about the tangible assets from the deal? What is being immediately injected into the Sens system?
Dominik Kubalik, LW, 6’2, DOB 95, 7-191/13 LA, 1yr/2.5
2021-22 Chi 78-15-17-32
2022-23 Det 81-20-25-45
He scored 30 goals in his rookie season with a talented Chicago team in 19-20, but his results the last two years are representative (receiving no boost from the NHL’s overall increase in scoring). If you were to slot his prior season in with Ottawa’s lineup he’s ahead of Shane Pinto and the idea has to be of him providing depth to the Sens otherwise anemic bottom-six (ahem, Mathieu Joseph). Kubalik was allowed to walk by the Blackhawks and Steve Yzerman has moved him after just one season–is that suggestive? Not necessarily, as Chicago was rebuilding and Detroit is retooling (and would rather have DeBrincat). He is, however, not locked in so the Sens can move him or walk away easily and it’s an excellent Cap hit for what he provides.
Donovan Sebrango, DL, 6’1, DOB 02, 3-63/20 Det, ELC/2yrs
2021-22 AHL 66-1-6-7
2022-23 AHL 39-4-3-7
This is an asset Yzerman wanted to be rid of (he spent about half of last season demoted to the ECHL–very much a Zach Senyshyn situation), so he’s part of the price the Sens have to pay to get rid of DeBrincat. He has two years left on his contract (including the upcoming one) and I suspect Dorion will look for a way to package him elsewhere before he finishes that out.
Let’s briefly assess and then summarize:
Positives: the DeBrincat situation has been resolved before the start of the season; Kubalik is a useful NHL player and arrives with a good contract; the Sens regained some of the draft equity they squandered; they have cap space to find a free agent and lock-up players like Pinto, Sanderson, etc
Negatives: Dorion (again!) overpaid for an asset he didn’t need so (again) failed to recoup the investment; just like with the Duchene trade above, there’s a good chance the entire fiasco ends with a modest asset like Lassi Thomson that is a pale shadow to what was given up in the first place; I don’t trust Dorion not to go overpay a free agent just to make a splash–I didn’t want five years for Korpisalo (or three years of Anton Forsberg for that matter) and I don’t want five years of an aging Tarasenko either (ask a stacked Rangers team how much he helped them). [The Detroit perspective doesn’t think much of the deal]
We can’t give the final assessment on the DeBrincat odyssey like we did with Duchene, but as it stands Dorion gave up: Kevin Korchinski (and Paul Ludwinski) for one season of DeBrincat in return for (possibly) one season of Kubalik and a late 1st-rounder. If that’s your return on investment, it’s time to get a new investor. Dorion rightfully received praise for some of the contracts he signed last summer (although lot’s not forget the hell he’s created for himself in that realm before, ala Colin White), but his ability to assess his team–where they are at, what they need–is hilariously and disastrously awful. Do we want to re-visit the Matt Murray trade? GMs are sometimes the victims of bad luck, but that’s not the case here. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Dorion needs to go before he permanently damages the rebuild.
This article was written by Peter Levi
eyeonthesens 