Sens Off-Season Continues to go off the Rails

Fans in Ottawa live in a myopic bubble where everything is positive until you can’t ignore reality anymore. Thankfully, outside this space you can get a reality check and we have one from The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn: “Everything else [besides the Ullmark trade] the Senators have done has only hurt their playoff chances. The Jakob Chychrun trade was a disaster. Not qualifying Erik Brannstrom probably wasn’t wise. And signing Michael Amadio at the expense of Mathieu Joseph didn’t make a whole lot of sense given the latter is probably cheaper and better.” He gives the Perron deal a pass (which I don’t) and this was written before the deals discussed below. The Chychrun trade in particular is one of those that, in future, will be in the hall of fame of the org’s bad deals.

What’s irritating about all this as a fan is that this counternarrative is ignored locally. Why the silence? Clicks? Access? The latter appears to be the case for Nicholls, as he’s landed work at The Hockey News, but the days of he, Ary, and others actively challenging the org seems passe except after the fact.

Speaking of dumb moves, they continue. The Sens jettisoned one of their only remaining talented prospects by sending Roby Jarventie to Edmonton for spare parts (and to be clear: most prospects don’t pan out, but in terms of talent this trade is a joke). Let’s look at what came back.

Xavier Bourgault, 10/02, 6’0, CR/RW, 1-21/21 Edm
23-24 55-8-12-20 0.36
23-22 62-13-21-34 0.55
Career 117-21-33-54 0.46

The former first-round pick is on the decline, having shown nothing in his first two seasons as a pro (Jarventie‘s career AHL numbers aren’t massively higher, 0.63, but if you eliminate his rookie season, he’s 0.81, close to double Bourgault). There’s not much room on the BSens roster for the new addition, so the point in acquiring him seems to be getting rid of Jarventie. The justification for the trade is that Jarventie is injured too much (I guess Chabot and Tyler Boucher are also on their way out) and “Bourgault is a fairly one-dimensional, offensive player, and he wasn’t being put in a position to succeed with the Condors, and he wasn’t the only one. There is a lot more talent with Bourgault than was shown over his last two seasons. His final season in the Quebec Maritime Junior Hockey League was his best and he posted 75 points in 43 games.” We’re basing everything on part of a season in the Q? Why? There’s no sign of this in the AHL and unlike Jarventie his performance is dropping. There’s no reason to imagine a turnaround.

Jake Chaisson, 05/03, 6’2, RW, 4-116/21 Edm
23-24 ECHL 68-9-11-20 0.29
22-23 WHL 70-20-38-58 0.83

This part of the deal reminds me a great deal of the org acquiring Graham McPhee (an Oiler castoff with no apparent talent). His ECHL numbers are abysmal, so I don’t expect him in Belleville unless there are injury problems. Undoubtedly he was someone the Oilers wanted to get rid of and Staios can’t turn down a bad player when offered one.

In a more minor deal, the Sens sent qualified third-stringer RFA Kevin Mandolese to Colorado along with a 7th round pick for a 6th. That’s not much value for the asset, but at least it’s something back as opposed nothing. With Sogaard re-signed it means he and Merilainen will carry the load for Belleville (which is fine).

The BSens signed blueliner Wyatte Wylie to an AHL-contract. Let’s take a look:

Wyatte Wylie, 11/99, 6’0, DR, 5-127/18 Phi
23-24 45-2-11-13 0.29
22-23 45-3-7-10 0.22
21-22 65-5-13-18 0.0.28
Career 176-11-37-48 0.27

An offensively gifted player when drafted from the WHL, he’s had an unremarkable career in the Philadelphia and LA systems. The BSens, with the loss of Thomson to the SEL, are short on the right side, so he arrives to help shore that up. He’s essentially a more talented version of part-time blueliner Ryan MacKinnon, who has departed to play in the Slovakian league.

The team also signed Keean Washkurak:

Keean Washkurakm, 08/01, 5’10, CL, 5-155/19 Stl
23-24 63-4-6-10 0.16
22-23 45-10-3-13 0.29
Career 175-27-19-46 0.26

The undersized forward has had an unremarkable career in the AHL after a similarly unremarkable career in the OHL. Clearly signed for depth, I’m not sure what he’s supposed to bring to the table besides a pulse.

I got what might be an indirect shoutout from NKB (as the org is still on the Titanic post-Dorion).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 16, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

‘The Plan’, Sokolov traded, and Coach Travis Green

It’s surprising to see genuine criticism of the org’s chaos coming from The Silver Seven, as Ross attempts to decipher the team plan and comes away baffled (Trevor tries to find positives, but you can feel him fumbling in the effort; only Nichols, who seems to have given up on serious coverage, believes fans should shut up because management is hard–sunk costs, landed some veterans, good in the corners, etc). Ross is rightly terrified by Dave Poulin’s quoted idiotic comments, which echoes the out of touch commentary you get from many older ex-players. It’s a muddled mess (Ian Mendes embarrassed himself giving the team a B+ for their off-season so far).

How does what we have compare to last season? Let’s go over changes to the roster (the red and green don’t necessarily reflect my opinion, just the raw information):
2022-23 vs 2023-24
Taraesenko (31; 57-17-24-41 0.72; 5.0/1 yr; 1 Cup) -> Perron (36; 76-17-30-47 0.62; 4.0/2 yrs; 1 Cup)
Joseph (26; 72-11-24-35 0.48; 2.95/4 yrs—2 remaining; 1 Cup) -> Amadio (28; 73-14-13-27 0.37; 2.6/4 yrs; 1 Cup)
Kelly (24; 80-8-10-18 0.22; 0.762/2 yrs) -> Gregor (26; 63-6-6-12 0.19; 0.85/1 yr)
Kubalik (28; 74-11-4-15 0.20; 2.5/1 yr) -> nothing
Kastelic (24; 63-5-5-10 0.16; 0.835/2 yrs–1 remaining) -> nothing
Chychrun (25; 82-14-27-41 0.50; 4.6/6 yrs—1 remaining) -> Jensen (33; 78-1-13-14 0.18; 4.05/3yrs–2 remaining; 1 Cup)
Brannstrom (24; 76-3-17-20 0.26; 2.0/1 yr) -> nothing
Korpisalo (30; 0.890 3.27; 4.0/5 yrs) -> Ullmark (31; 0.915 2.58; 5.0/4 yrs—1 remaining)

Other facts to note: the team has replaced 8 roster players with 5 (so minus 3); the team is older (+18 years); in terms of size the team is slightly smaller (Joseph/Amadio, Kelly/Gregor are the same size, but Perron and Jensen are smaller); the team is net 1 Cup more in terms of experience (losing 2, adding 3), something I find irrelevant, but people tend to bring it up; other than goaltending, all the added players performed worse statistically. The Sens are now older, less dynamic, statistically worse (other than in the crease), and have less established depth. Alarm bells are ringing! Let’s take a look at the system:

2022-23 vs 2023-24
Jenik (23; 55-16-20-36 0.65) -> Sokolov (23; 71-21-25-46 0.65) Utah
nothing -> Currie (31; 62-12-17-29 0.47) unsigned
nothing -> Smejkal (26; 47-9-13-22 0.47) Czech league
Gaudette (28; 67-44-27-71 1.05) -> Chartier (27; 19-7-6-13 0.68) unsigned
Hodgson (28; 49-6-10-16 0.32) -> Imama (27; 53-3-7-10 0.19) unsigned
Davies (27; 66-12-23-35 0.53) -> Larsson (26; 61-7-26-33 0.54) NLA
nothing -> Thomson (23; 67-6-15-21 0.31) SEL
Roos (25; 59-2-14-16 0.27) -> Heatherington (28; 60-3-7-10 0.17) unsigned

The Sens qualified Thomson, but he’s in the SEL for this upcoming season (undoubtedly his issues with coach Bell in Belleville made the decision easy–given Staios’ track record, I look forward to his rights being traded away for nothing and let me preempt Nichols by saying ‘sunk costs/fans need to move on‘). Just like the NHL above, that’s five bodies in for eight going out (late season acquisitions Rees and Bongiovanni are not included above, with both retained). This is statistically an upgrade and a slightly older group, although I don’t know what Shawn Simpson is smoking saying there’s more highly paid veterans now when that’s not true (the BSens had so many vets last season they often had to sit one out).

What the BSens do have are players who can fill out the bottom of the lineup (besides who they’ve signed, it’s also what they’ve drafted for), particularly among the forwards, with Highmore and Gaudette being the most obvious candidates. The blueline, on the other hand, has less obvious capacity–besides Kleven, it’s not clear anyone can meaningfully fill-in. A major Chabot injury, which you have to expect, will crush the team’s ability to move the puck.

The Sens traded Igor Sokolov to Utah in return for another restricted free agents, Jan Jenik. It’s not a surprising move from Staios, as Sokolov is coming off a down year. Did he given up on the big Russian too soon? It’s hard to say. Sokolov needs to score to be an effective pro and being one-dimensional is likely what pulled the trigger for the org. As for what’s coming back, let’s look:

Jan Jenik, DOB 2000, CL, 6’1, 3-65/18
2023-24 AHL 55-16-20-36 0.65
2022-23 AHL 30-7-16-23 0.76
Career AHL 165-46-74-100 0.73

The two Europeans are roughly the same age and have similar career AHL production numbers (Sokolov is slightly higher at 0.75), and both are coming off down years. One of the things that’s been clear with Sokolov is that most of his struggles are mental (confidence) and you get the sense that if he could solve that he would take a step forward. I know virtually nothing about Jenik besides his numbers. Significantly he’s a center, not a winger, but the BSens don’t need a center (on paper they have seven in the AHL). While I can live with moving on from Sokolov (you can argue after four years maybe a change is needed), but I don’t see the vision with Jenik. Even if he shifts to the wing, he’s one of six on the left side. Where are you going to play him? It’s a baffling move as things sit.

Travis Green was hired as the coach back in May and as I haven’t commented on it yet, let’s take care of that. What are my first impressions? I’m not happy with it. Let’s go through why.

Travis Green
2023-24 New Jersey 21-8-21-1
2021-22 Vancouver 25-8-15-2
2020-21 Vancouver 56-23-29-4
2019-20 Vancouver 69-36-27-6 (lost 2nd round)
2018-19 Vancouver 82-35-36-11
2017-18 Vancouver 82-31-40-11
Career 335-141-159-35

Green was a good WHL coach (winning the Memorial Cup) and a good AHL coach (reaching and losing the Calder Cup finals with Utica), but his NHL resume is terrible. In five seasons with the Canucks he made the playoffs once and couldn’t translate that success in the seasons that followed. The only argument that can be made given his past is that he’s good with young players, but the Sens are supposed to be beyond that stage and Green (including his time in New Jersey) has shown no ability to get the best out of his team at this level. Presumably he was picked due to some comfort level Staios has with him, but I’ve seen this movie before, as the Sens have a long track record of taking risks on coaches who crash and burn in Ottawa (D. J. Smith, Dave Cameron, Cory Clouston, Craig Hartsburg, etc–no ex-Sens coach has gone on to great success). I hope I’m wrong, but this seems like a bad fit to me.

Byron Bader, who works for The Athletic, released his latest NHL prospect chart and the Sens have not changed positions (remaining 30th, although their goaltending pool is considered above average). When you continually draft for the fourth-line and bottom-six, this is the result.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 6, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

2023-24 Sens Prospect Review

I’m only looking at those who were not playing pro (excluding Halliday and Pettersson, as they played significant time in Belleville where they were discussed). The prospects are arranged by age (oldest to youngest) since I think that’s a better indicator of where they are in their development. Those signed are in green.

Djibril Toure, 06/03, undrafted, 6’7, DR
23-24 OHL 45-8-10-18
22-23 OHL 57-5-11-16

His numbers dropped when he moved from Sudbury to Windsor. Like many of the org’s draft picks, the Sens gambled on size. Toure will have to make it as a strong defender. I think what you hope for is not a physical player, but someone like Kjell Samuelsson–very long who can take away time and space while clogging up the zone. He should be in Belleville this season, as he’s already burned one year of his ELC in the OHL, although as it stands he’s fourth on the depth chart on the right side.

Oliver Johansson, 07/03, 3-74/21, 6’0, LW/C
23-24 SEL 51-5-3-8
22-23 Allsven 27-6-3-9

Picked in large part because of his work ethic (cf), his rookie numbers in the SEL are fine, but don’t tell us much (he certainly needs to produce more to be worth signing). I don’t know enough about him to say if he’s an offensive dead zone like Parker Kelly (although the odds do lean towards that).

Theo Wallberg, 12/03, 6-168/22, 6’5, DL
23-24 NCAA 38-2-19-21
22-23 USHL 60-5-17-22

Another gamble on size. After an abysmal USHL season he finished second on his team in defensive scoring and I imagine his shocking numbers are due to his partner Scooter Brickey (this phenomena is not uncommon, think of Jared Cowen playing with Jared Spurgeon). We’ll want to see him produce without that help to feel better about his abilities.

Cameron O’Neill, 01/04, 5-143/22, 6’0, RW
23-24 NCAA 28-3-4-7
22-23 USHL 56-9-18-27

While there’s still plenty of time for him, there’s nothing that jumps out yet (very unremarkable USHL numbers). As an undersized forward, he needs to be either smart defensively or productive (the former seems like his only option, but even so, you need some talent to go along with it).

Tyson Dyck, 02/04, 7-206/22, 6’0, CL
23-24 NCAA 28-0-9-9
22-23 NCAA 28-5-4-9

You want to see progression from season-to-season, which we don’t here, but he has the upcoming year to demonstrate there’s light at the end of the tunnel.

Filip Nordberg, 03/04, 2-64/22, 6’5, DL
23-24 USHL 52-1-13-14
22-23 Allsven 33-2-4-6

These are not good USHL numbers (even worse than Wallberg‘s above), albeit there’s an adjustment from Europe to that league. He needs to demonstrate something soon or he’s another failed gambit on size.

Tomas Hamara, 03/04, 3-87/22, 6’0, DL
23-24 OHL 44-1-19-20
22-23 OHL 56-2-15-17

He was much more productive when moved to Brantford mid-season (26-1-16-17), which is the first time outside of international play we’ve seen him demonstrate the talent the org believes is there. As a smaller d-man it’s hard to imagine he’s in the org’s long term plans and I expect him to be moved. In theory he’ll be in Belleville this season (albeit as a spare part, with the org currently have 5 left-d not including Kleven).

Jorian Donovan, 04/04, 5-136/22, 6’2, DL
23-24 OHL 66-13-33-46
22-23 OHL 55-12-33-45

His numbers dropped after being traded to a stacked Saginaw team, which is no big deal. He’s been very productive in the CHL and it will be interesting to see how that transitions to the AHL-level (on a roster desperate for talent). As things stands he’d be third on the left side.

Nicholas Van Tassell, 04/04, 7-215/23, 6’4, CR
23-24 NCAA 24-1-1-2
22-23 USHL 62-19-18-37

The big center didn’t accomplish much as a freshmen, which is worrying, but he gets one more season to demonstrate something before we cast him aside.

Kevin Reidler, 09/04, 5-151/22, 6’6, GL
23-24 USHL .902 2.86 27-5-2
22-23 J20 .911 2.89 14-16-0

Starting ‘tender had an excellent playoff. There’s always a reason to be patient with goaltenders, so the org should continue to take its time with him.

Vladimir Nikitin, 01/05, 7-207/23, 6’4, GL
23-24 BCHL .898 2.76 15-6-3
22-23 Kazak Jr .921 2.07 18-6-0

He’s going back to the MHL (the AHL of the KHL), which is an interesting decision (as opposed to heading to the NCAA, USHL, or CHL). The Sens can take plenty of time with him, so we’ll have to see how things go, but as an off-the-wall pick expectations are low.

Hoyt Stanley, 02/05, 4-108/23, 6’3, DR
23-24 NCAA 35-2-8-10
22-23 BCHL 53-4-34-38

These are solid numbers as a freshmen, so if he can continue to improve on them there’s potential. I like offensively gifted defensemen, so he was a worthwhile risk as a pick.

Owen Beckner, 02/05, 7-204/23, 6’2, CL
23-24 USHL 61-14-31-45
22-23 BCHL 53-17-33-50

By points-per-game he was fourth in scoring on his team, well behind Vegas pick Trevor Connelly. There’s plenty of time for him to develop, so we’ll see how things go in the NCAA, but I would say his USHL numbers lower than what you’d want.

Matthew Andonovski, 03/05, 5-140/23, 6’2, DL
23-24 OHL 65-7-25-32
22-23 OHL 67-0-16-16

Second in scoring among blueliners and a nice jump in production from last year–this is the kind of growth you want to see. How far that takes him remains to be seen, although it was enough for the Sens to sign him to an ELC.

No one above looks like a game breaker. These are all support prospects whose top side is filling out the bottom of the lineup. It would be nice if the group featured more talent, but it’s one obviously talented player (Halliday) graduated out of this class before the end of the season.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 4, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The Staios Nightmare Unfolds

Having spent time so much time covering Pierre Dorion, I know what incompetence feels like and this off-season feels very familiar. We had hints of this at the trade deadline with the awful Tarasenko trade (along with the inability to move either Joseph or Brannstrom), but that was just an appetizer. Every GM across the league should be picking up the phone to call Ottawa (as St. Louis did, getting Mathieu Joseph not just for nothing, but with a 3rd-round pick thrown in). I’m going to go through the latest roster moves and we can share the pain together. To save those of you who just want to skim for what I liked or disliked, I’ve colour-coded that with green for good, red for bad, and no highlight when I think it’s mixed.

Chychrun for Jensen/3rd-rounder (2026)
It’s difficult to imagine a worse trade. To quote The Athletic: “There’s no way to say right now just what the market on Chychrun was, but it’s fair to call it a highly underwhelming return.“. The Sens gave up on a signed, 26-year old dynamic blueliner who is finally healthy, affordable, and wanted to be in Ottawa, for a declining 33-year old blueliner coming off his worst year via analytics. I’m sure he’s good in the corners and I know he plays the right side, but he’s old, overpaid, and won’t be here long. Org defenders have come out with the refrain: “Chychrun was a sunk cost, so there is no use complaining about that anymore.” This is ridiculous (as one can see from The Athletic‘s reaction–and frankly everyone’s from outside the local market). Acquiring Chychrun is one of the few good trades from the Dorion regime and Staios’ failure to handle an asset (again!) simply illustrates he’s struggles as a general manager. It even fails in comparison to Dorion’s terrible DeBrincat trade, because he at least Dorian got a 1st-round pick. One can imagine Staios in the same scenario impatiently trading straight-up for Kubalik and a 4th-rounder.

What’s clear from the above and what follows is that Andlauer has given Staios a free reign and has no idea how to handle hockey assets. There’s positives in that he won’t interfere, but if he doesn’t have a meaningful understanding of hockey, a terrible manager can linger like Jarmo Kekalainen for years.

FA signing David Perron
He’s 35, so he can’t be bought out; he’s coming off his worst year via analytics ever (link above); and he’s signed with term for 4 million. I was trying to figure out the internal logic for this one and I think the org has done it projecting to the 25-26 season, after Giroux walks, is traded, or retires. Perron becomes a less expensive veteran in the lineup and clearly the org wants an older player in their top-six. Of course, Perron isn’t remotely as good a player as Giroux is. My problem, putting the questionable logic aside, is his cap hit, trajectory, and the inability to do anything with him if he completely falls off.

Re-signing Shane Pinto
There was never a question that he’d be re-signed, just for what and how long. The cap hit is fine (3.75) and while the term is short (two years), given all contracts coming off the books it’s possible for the team to keep him (at that point the state of Josh Norris should be clear–the worst case scenario for the Sens is Norris gets healthy but is a shadow of his former self).

Nothing for Mathieu Joseph and a 3rd-rounder (2025)
It’s amazing how easily Staios throws up his hands and gives up on players. Not only did he give Joseph away (having replaced him with someone only marginally cheaper in Amadio), he had to include a pick as well. I’m sure ‘sunk costs’ will explain this one locally too, but there’s no excuse for this. I’ve been eager for Joseph to go for a long time (based on the absurd contract Dorion gave him), but to get nothing in a market when talented players can be acquired for Nick Jensen is inexcusable.

Nothing letting Erik Brannstrom walk
I know, I know, ‘sunk cost’ mumble mumble couldn’t find a trade partner. Yet another complete fail without getting anything for an asset. What’s funny is that with both this and Chychrun‘s departure, the Sens are now lacking talent and skill on their blueline. Chabot is unlikely to ever play much more than half a season, Hamonic isn’t an NHL player any longer, and JBD has his own issues. The decision seems to be gambling on Kleven and simply hoping the puck magically moves from the blueline to the forwards.

FA signing Michael Amadio
He was with the org before, but this deal seems almost as bad as the Mathieu Joseph contract. Signed for 3-years, he’s a guy who will get the team 25-30 points a year…hopefully. He’s only achieved that on a very talented Vegas team, being much worse otherwise (0.37 with Vegas, 0.22 elsewhere). If there was less term (or cash) I could give it a pass, but the potential down sides are very unappealing.

FA signing Noah Gregor
The team let Parker Kelly walk (something I approve of) and replaced him with Gregor. The org’s rationale is that he’s quicker, while I’d say he’s marginally better offensively (0.26 per game vs 0.20; it’s almost eerie how similar they are as players). It feels like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

FA signing Hayden Hodgson (2-way)
A pointless goon signing (especially with McEwen on the roster–someone I fully expect to play in the minors where he’s also a productive forward). He’s slightly more talented than Imama (0.34 vs 0.23), so that’s the silver lining, but he’s an unnecessary addition.

FA signing Filip Roos (2-way)
The big Swede hasn’t show much as an AHLer (0.28) and I have no idea where you play him (even with Kleven in the NHL there’s still five d-men on the left side). I find the choice baffling, but at least it’s not a veteran slot.

FA signing Jeremy Davies (2-way)
This makes a bit more sense to me, as the veteran is a puck mover at the AHL-level (0.49). The BSens haven’t brought in a player like him in quite some time (the last time they did it successfully was in 2012-13, with Andre Benoit, but the last time they tried was Michael Kostka in 2015-16), leaning on prospects to do that from the blueline, so I like the idea behind the move.

FA signing Adam Gaudette (2-way)
We’ve seen this movie before, but at least he’s not been signed for the NHL roster. He’s a very productive AHL-scorer and a welcome addition.

Retained AHL vet Garrett Pilon
While his regular season was just average, he was good in the playoffs. I don’t mind the two-year contract, as there’s not much coming through the Sens pipeline now.

The Sens have a few more RFA situations to sort out, but none are of immediate NHL-impact nor do I think any of them will be difficult to sort out. I’m not clear on why they qualified Kevin Mandolese again, but he is insurance at the AHL-level.

There’s not much cap room left, but if Norris is unavailable to start the season (which is my assumption), the team will need two players on two-way contracts to fill out spots on the third and fourth line (there are plenty of options for both). I’m also assuming Kleven is in the mix for the defensemen, so on paper the lineup is set. Is it a good lineup? That’s a different question and I’ll leave that for a separate discussion.

As a post-note, I missed Kyle Betts being re-signed to an AHL-deal with Belleville back in March. It’s a move I’m fine with. Betts won’t blow anyone away with his skill, but he can plug-and-play as a fourth-liner, which is a useful thing for the BSens to have.

The BSens also retained Bell as their head coach while replacing both his assistants with Stefan Legein (from the WHL), and Andrew Campbell (from the OHL). Gone are assistants Chris Dennis and Nathan McIver (I have no idea if the change is a conscious one from the org or if both simply moved on).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 3, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Ullmark Trade, Re-Signings, and the Draft

While I was not happy with Steve Staios at the trade deadline (cf), he did manage to undo one of the bigger Pierre Dorion flubs by dumping Joonas Korpisalo on the Bruins in return for one year of Linus Ullmark. The Sens were also able to get rid of a worthless one-way contract in Mark Kastelic, but had to give up a first-round pick in 2024, which the Bruins used to select 6’6 center Dean Letourneau. It’s a much better hockey trade for Boston (who already tried and failed to move Ullmark at the deadline), but this wipes the slate clean for Staios by getting him out from under the Korpisalo (and Kastelic). This frees his hands when it comes to goaltending, as both Ullmark and Forsberg have just one year left on their deals, while the Kastelic move creates opportunity for players like Crookshank, Jarventie, Halliday, etc. [After writing the bulk of this I learned that the Sens are not qualifying Erik Brannstrom, which is a suitably botched ending to the Mark Stone trade–yet another reason why Staios failed the trade deadline]

Linus Ullmark, DOB 93, 6’4, 6-163/12 Buf; 1yr remaining
2022-23 .915 2.58
2021-22 .938 1.89

Ullmark has never been a #1 goaltender before, at best being the 1A for Boston in 21-22. He’s been awful in the playoffs (including in the AHL), but the Sens won’t be a playoff team, so that’s not relevant. He’s played on bad teams before in Buffalo and put up better numbers than Korpisalo, Forsberg, Matt Murray, etc, in that situation, so he’s an improvement. To me the ideal circumstance is to move him at the deadline for other assets. The only hesitation here is that he’s never handled a starter’s workload in the NHL and it’s unclear how he’ll respond to that.

Besides the big trade, Staios has also been busy re-signing various players (mostly RFA’s) to two-way deals (you can see how their seasons went here). In order:
Angus Crookshank (50-24-22-46) – a one-year deal; this should be the transition deal where he graduates to the NHL team or is moved elsewhere; I like him quite a bit, with the potential issue for him being speed
Cole Reinhardt (56-8-15-23) – one-year; statistically on a down year, but he’s not in the org to produce; definitely a make or break season as I think he has to define a niche and excel in it (PK/energy role suits him best)
Maxence Guenette (58-7-27-34) – one-year; while he established himself as the top offensive blueliner in Belleville, he also trailed off as the season wore on; he’ll need to show more consistency next season
Nikolas Matinpalo (67-4-10-14) – one-year; the undrafted Finn is good defensively, so I think continuing that trend while being more physical and adding a more offense is what I’d look for
Jamieson Rees (51-0-8-8) – one-year; an absolute disaster for both Carolina and Ottawa, the Sens are banking on him rebounding somewhere close to the form he had in 21-22 (otherwise he’s a complete bust)
Wyatt Bongiovanni (48-16-9-25) – one-year; unlike Rees above, he did respond to the move to Ottawa and has been rewarded; he needs to produce, so that’s what to look for
Matthew Highmore (43-9-22-31) – one-year; the only UFA on this list, I suspect the team likes his versability, where he can function in the NHL while also doing his duty in the minors
Michael Simpson (OHL .905 2.61; AHL-deal) – one-year; undersized (6’1) undrafted OHLer signed to serve in the ECHL

One thing I didn’t discuss was the AHL playoffs for Belleville. To briefly recap: the Sens won their opening round 2-1 than lost 2-3 in the next. Halliday was the highlight among prospects (leading the team in scoring), with a trio of veterans doing most of the rest of the work. Generally the prospects wilted in the playoffs, with Sogaard erratic between the pipes.

For those who have read my coverage for a long time you know I like taking risks on skill and goaltending–the two rarest things in the NHL. The Sens have long preferred to take risks on grinders, tough guys, and defensive stalwarts. This approach echoes most of what Ottawa’s commentators ask for. This approach has caused the prospect pool to dry up we can see that the scouting team under Steve Staios still operates under that principal. Neither Scott Wheeler nor Corey Pronman‘s liked their draft.

In reflecting on these picks, it’s worth noting that despite incessantly picking from the US systems, the Sens have a terrible track record with those picks. Gonig over the trends from 2008 to 2021 (the Dorion era forward; success is equal to 400 NHL games or where we can presume it; for some younger players it’s TBD; I put first-round picks in green since that’s as close to idiot-proof as you can get):
US systems (24): Dzingel, (Daccord), Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson
WHL/BCHL (18): Smith, Grant, Stone, Lazar, (Greig)
Sweden (16): Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Zibanejad
OHL/CCHL/etc (14): Borowiecki, Noesen, Ceci, (Formenton)
QMJHL (11): Hoffman, Pageau, Chabot, Batherson
Finland (4): none
Germany (1): Stutzle
Out of 88 total picks, 27% are from the US systems, much more than the 20% from Western Canada in second (the combined CHL is much more, of course, 49%, but that’s to be expected). Despite that US preponderance, those selections aren’t ahead in terms of success, sitting tied with the West, Sweden, and QMJHL (and just ahead of the OHL). To me that suggests the org needs to reevaluate its US scouting.

1-7 Carter Yakemchuk, RD, 6’3, WHL, 66-30-41-71
Lead the blueline in scoring and was second on the team overall; this is the one pick the aforementioned analysts actually liked, although it’s higher than the consensus listings. The criticisms of him (and why he wasn’t a top-five consideration) is based on his defending and mental mistakes. Defense is easily taught, but mental errors are harder to fix.

2-39 Gabriel Eliasson, LD, 6’7, Swe-J20, 36-1-5-6
Will be going to the NCAA from Sweden; amongst the worst producers on his team; the negative sentiments from scouts about him are overwhelming; the Sens are hoping his unique size and onery temperament will be enough to carry him through–it’s unlikely, but the org likes taking these kinds of risks based on size (Djibril Toure, Ben Roger, Chandler Romero, Filip Nordberg, Theo Wallberg, etc); like the pick above, he went ahead of projections. From Pronman: “He is a player some evaluators love because of how hard he plays, but there is some real doubt he can make even basic plays versus pros.” Wheeler: “I didn’t rank him on my board after watching him get in his own way more than any defenseman I’ve scouted in 11 years of doing this. He is the most undisciplined player I’ve ever watched and has shown no ability to play with any restraint“

4-104 Lucas Ellinas, LW/CL, 6’2, OHL, 67-16-17-33
Plays with fellow Sens’ pick Andonovski; he was 7th in scoring; scouts liked his shot and work ethic; it’s worth noting he’s already had shoulder problems and there are mixed feelings about his skating (Pronman thinks it’s not good, Wheeler says he has good speed).

4-112 Javon Moore, LW, 6’4, USHS, 28-26-27-53
The pick acquired from Detroit in the DeBrincat trade; was third on his high school team in scoring. Pronman: “I didn’t think he dominated high school opponents like his talent dictated he should, whether it was due to so-so hockey sense or too much perimeter play.“

4-117 Blake Montgomery, LW, 6’4, USHL, 58-22-21-43
The pick acquired from Tampa in the Paul trade; third in scoring on the team, but first in points-per-game; picked slightly ahead of projections. Pronman: “he’s a great athlete who has some physicality and OK skill that will make him appealing to NHL teams.“

5-136 Eerik Wallenius, DL, 6’4, Finn-U20, 14-3-5-8
Bounced between leagues (as is normal for younger players in Europe), but in limited action was the most successful offensive blueliner. Pronman: “His mobility isn’t great … and I don’t see the top-level puck play to compensate for that.“

(Ottawa’s 3rd-round pick was lost to Chicago in the DeBrincat trade; the 6th-round was lost to Carolina in the inexplicable Rees trade; the 7th-round pick went to Toronto in the Murray trade.)

There’s a pretty obvious theme in the players above and that’s size. Nearly all the players were taken ahead of projections and are projects (many of which verge between bust and depth). This tendency goes back to Troy Mann and thus far none of the ‘truculent’ players have panned out. The successes Mann had were risks on skilled players (Batherson, Pinto, etc). How many Tyler Boucher‘s can you draft before the lesson sinks in? Apparently there is no limit. (Tangentially I have to comment on lazy writing from The Silver Seven on the later prospects–using the Google machine won’t hurt you Beata!)

The odds of Yakemchuk working out are good, because top-ten picks usually do (Boucher is an exception), but we’ll have to see with the rest of the crew, none of whom are coming soon. On the surface this isn’t a great draft, but I want to see some results before I take a strong stance on it.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 1, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments