While I was not happy with Steve Staios at the trade deadline (cf), he did manage to undo one of the bigger Pierre Dorion flubs by dumping Joonas Korpisalo on the Bruins in return for one year of Linus Ullmark. The Sens were also able to get rid of a worthless one-way contract in Mark Kastelic, but had to give up a first-round pick in 2024, which the Bruins used to select 6’6 center Dean Letourneau. It’s a much better hockey trade for Boston (who already tried and failed to move Ullmark at the deadline), but this wipes the slate clean for Staios by getting him out from under the Korpisalo (and Kastelic). This frees his hands when it comes to goaltending, as both Ullmark and Forsberg have just one year left on their deals, while the Kastelic move creates opportunity for players like Crookshank, Jarventie, Halliday, etc. [After writing the bulk of this I learned that the Sens are not qualifying Erik Brannstrom, which is a suitably botched ending to the Mark Stone trade–yet another reason why Staios failed the trade deadline]
Linus Ullmark, DOB 93, 6’4, 6-163/12 Buf; 1yr remaining
2022-23 .915 2.58
2021-22 .938 1.89
Ullmark has never been a #1 goaltender before, at best being the 1A for Boston in 21-22. He’s been awful in the playoffs (including in the AHL), but the Sens won’t be a playoff team, so that’s not relevant. He’s played on bad teams before in Buffalo and put up better numbers than Korpisalo, Forsberg, Matt Murray, etc, in that situation, so he’s an improvement. To me the ideal circumstance is to move him at the deadline for other assets. The only hesitation here is that he’s never handled a starter’s workload in the NHL and it’s unclear how he’ll respond to that.
Besides the big trade, Staios has also been busy re-signing various players (mostly RFA’s) to two-way deals (you can see how their seasons went here). In order:
Angus Crookshank (50-24-22-46) – a one-year deal; this should be the transition deal where he graduates to the NHL team or is moved elsewhere; I like him quite a bit, with the potential issue for him being speed
Cole Reinhardt (56-8-15-23) – one-year; statistically on a down year, but he’s not in the org to produce; definitely a make or break season as I think he has to define a niche and excel in it (PK/energy role suits him best)
Maxence Guenette (58-7-27-34) – one-year; while he established himself as the top offensive blueliner in Belleville, he also trailed off as the season wore on; he’ll need to show more consistency next season
Nikolas Matinpalo (67-4-10-14) – one-year; the undrafted Finn is good defensively, so I think continuing that trend while being more physical and adding a more offense is what I’d look for
Jamieson Rees (51-0-8-8) – one-year; an absolute disaster for both Carolina and Ottawa, the Sens are banking on him rebounding somewhere close to the form he had in 21-22 (otherwise he’s a complete bust)
Wyatt Bongiovanni (48-16-9-25) – one-year; unlike Rees above, he did respond to the move to Ottawa and has been rewarded; he needs to produce, so that’s what to look for
Matthew Highmore (43-9-22-31) – one-year; the only UFA on this list, I suspect the team likes his versability, where he can function in the NHL while also doing his duty in the minors
Michael Simpson (OHL .905 2.61; AHL-deal) – one-year; undersized (6’1) undrafted OHLer signed to serve in the ECHL
One thing I didn’t discuss was the AHL playoffs for Belleville. To briefly recap: the Sens won their opening round 2-1 than lost 2-3 in the next. Halliday was the highlight among prospects (leading the team in scoring), with a trio of veterans doing most of the rest of the work. Generally the prospects wilted in the playoffs, with Sogaard erratic between the pipes.
For those who have read my coverage for a long time you know I like taking risks on skill and goaltending–the two rarest things in the NHL. The Sens have long preferred to take risks on grinders, tough guys, and defensive stalwarts. This approach echoes most of what Ottawa’s commentators ask for. This approach has caused the prospect pool to dry up we can see that the scouting team under Steve Staios still operates under that principal. Neither Scott Wheeler nor Corey Pronman‘s liked their draft.
In reflecting on these picks, it’s worth noting that despite incessantly picking from the US systems, the Sens have a terrible track record with those picks. Gonig over the trends from 2008 to 2021 (the Dorion era forward; success is equal to 400 NHL games or where we can presume it; for some younger players it’s TBD; I put first-round picks in green since that’s as close to idiot-proof as you can get):
US systems (24): Dzingel, (Daccord), Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson
WHL/BCHL (18): Smith, Grant, Stone, Lazar, (Greig)
Sweden (16): Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Zibanejad
OHL/CCHL/etc (14): Borowiecki, Noesen, Ceci, (Formenton)
QMJHL (11): Hoffman, Pageau, Chabot, Batherson
Finland (4): none
Germany (1): Stutzle
Out of 88 total picks, 27% are from the US systems, much more than the 20% from Western Canada in second (the combined CHL is much more, of course, 49%, but that’s to be expected). Despite that US preponderance, those selections aren’t ahead in terms of success, sitting tied with the West, Sweden, and QMJHL (and just ahead of the OHL). To me that suggests the org needs to reevaluate its US scouting.
1-7 Carter Yakemchuk, RD, 6’3, WHL, 66-30-41-71
Lead the blueline in scoring and was second on the team overall; this is the one pick the aforementioned analysts actually liked, although it’s higher than the consensus listings. The criticisms of him (and why he wasn’t a top-five consideration) is based on his defending and mental mistakes. Defense is easily taught, but mental errors are harder to fix.
2-39 Gabriel Eliasson, LD, 6’7, Swe-J20, 36-1-5-6
Will be going to the NCAA from Sweden; amongst the worst producers on his team; the negative sentiments from scouts about him are overwhelming; the Sens are hoping his unique size and onery temperament will be enough to carry him through–it’s unlikely, but the org likes taking these kinds of risks based on size (Djibril Toure, Ben Roger, Chandler Romero, Filip Nordberg, Theo Wallberg, etc); like the pick above, he went ahead of projections. From Pronman: “He is a player some evaluators love because of how hard he plays, but there is some real doubt he can make even basic plays versus pros.” Wheeler: “I didn’t rank him on my board after watching him get in his own way more than any defenseman I’ve scouted in 11 years of doing this. He is the most undisciplined player I’ve ever watched and has shown no ability to play with any restraint“
4-104 Lucas Ellinas, LW/CL, 6’2, OHL, 67-16-17-33
Plays with fellow Sens’ pick Andonovski; he was 7th in scoring; scouts liked his shot and work ethic; it’s worth noting he’s already had shoulder problems and there are mixed feelings about his skating (Pronman thinks it’s not good, Wheeler says he has good speed).
4-112 Javon Moore, LW, 6’4, USHS, 28-26-27-53
The pick acquired from Detroit in the DeBrincat trade; was third on his high school team in scoring. Pronman: “I didn’t think he dominated high school opponents like his talent dictated he should, whether it was due to so-so hockey sense or too much perimeter play.“
4-117 Blake Montgomery, LW, 6’4, USHL, 58-22-21-43
The pick acquired from Tampa in the Paul trade; third in scoring on the team, but first in points-per-game; picked slightly ahead of projections. Pronman: “he’s a great athlete who has some physicality and OK skill that will make him appealing to NHL teams.“
5-136 Eerik Wallenius, DL, 6’4, Finn-U20, 14-3-5-8
Bounced between leagues (as is normal for younger players in Europe), but in limited action was the most successful offensive blueliner. Pronman: “His mobility isn’t great … and I don’t see the top-level puck play to compensate for that.“
(Ottawa’s 3rd-round pick was lost to Chicago in the DeBrincat trade; the 6th-round was lost to Carolina in the inexplicable Rees trade; the 7th-round pick went to Toronto in the Murray trade.)
There’s a pretty obvious theme in the players above and that’s size. Nearly all the players were taken ahead of projections and are projects (many of which verge between bust and depth). This tendency goes back to Troy Mann and thus far none of the ‘truculent’ players have panned out. The successes Mann had were risks on skilled players (Batherson, Pinto, etc). How many Tyler Boucher‘s can you draft before the lesson sinks in? Apparently there is no limit. (Tangentially I have to comment on lazy writing from The Silver Seven on the later prospects–using the Google machine won’t hurt you Beata!)
The odds of Yakemchuk working out are good, because top-ten picks usually do (Boucher is an exception), but we’ll have to see with the rest of the crew, none of whom are coming soon. On the surface this isn’t a great draft, but I want to see some results before I take a strong stance on it.
This article was written by Peter Levi
eyeonthesens 