Fandom is like religion in that its adherents have almost no control over its function. This impotence provides heavy doses of tragedy and triumph, sensations far removed from more prosaic eudaimonic satisfaction. In this era understanding of sport is very high, so management has ceased to be messianic bearers of secret knowledge and revealed as a (mostly) bungling group of well-connected insiders whose foibles cause most franchises nothing but pain and, like corporate executes, simply fail into new positions. For Sens fans, the franchise has been struggling ever since the John Muckler-constructed team was blown-up in 2010 (and, arguably, since the 2007 Cup loss to Anaheim). Other than one blip in 2017 during the Murray rebuild (Rebuild #1), the org has been a disaster and new ownership (Andlauer) and leadership (Staios) is headed in the same direction. All the way back to Bryan Murray’s tenure as GM (2007-17), the team obsessed over veterans, pluggers, and grinders (as if they were still trying to sign Gary Roberts almost 20-years later). The organization is notorious for being patient with the bad players and impatient with good ones, and almost a year into Steve Staios’ tenure the same tendencies have emerged. With that preamble aside, let’s look at the roster changes from last year.
Gone
Tarasenko, RW, 31, 57-17-24-41 0.72 (T – Flo)
Chychrun, LD, 25, 82-14-27-41 0.50 (T – Wsh)
Joseph, RW, 26, 72-11-24-35 0.48 (T – Stl)
Brannstrom, LD, 24, 76-3-17-20 0.26 (FA – Col)
Kelly, LW, 24, 80-8-10-18 0.22 (FA – Col)
Kubalik, LW, 28, 74-11-4-15 0.20 (FA)
Katchouk, LW, 25, 21-2-2-4 0.19 (FA)
Kastelic, CR, 24, 63-5-5-10 0.16 (T – Bos)
Korpisalo, G, 30, 0.890 3.27 (T – Bos)
Draft picks: 1st/25 (Bos/Korpisalo trade), 3rd/25 (Stl/Joseph trade) 6th/24 (Car/Rees trade), 7th/26 (Col/Mandolese trade)
Added
Perron, RW, 36, 76-17-30-47 0.62 (FA Det)
Amadio, C/RW, 28, 73-14-13-27 0.37 (FA VGK)
Gregor, CL, 26, 63-6-6-12 0.19 (FA Tor)
Jensen, RD, 33, 78-1-13-14 0.18 (T – Wsh)
Ullmark, G, 31, 0.915 2.58 (T – Bos)
Draft picks: 3rd/25 (Flo/Tarasenko trade), 3rd/26 (Flo/Tarasenko trade), 3rd/26 (Wsh/Chychrun trade) 4th/25 (Edm/Jarventie trade), 6th/26 (Col/Mandolese trade)
All the picks added by Ottawa (with the exception of Washington’s) will be late in those rounds, while their own picks will be early (other than the 1st they surrendered, which was not their own). As I pointed out in July, in the offseason the Sens got older, smaller, and less talented. No important free agents signed here and the two main signees are overpaid (particularly Perron). Asset management has been so atrocious a term is being used to explain it all away: ‘sunk cost’ (ala ‘collateral damage’ in the military or Microsoft’s ‘situational disability’). The Chychrun trade was the worst in the offseason and the Sens’ once talented blueline has virtually returned to the era (2018-22) of being a Chabot-injury away from dreadful. I’ve gone over (link above) what I think the Sens are trying to do with Perron, but there’s not much gas left in the tank and he doesn’t make those around him better (unlike Giroux)–signed for two years, there’s no possibility of moving him or buying him out if the experiment fails. As for Amadio, he’s only had success on a very good Vegas team, so can he sustain that elsewhere? As we’ve seen with the player he replaced (Joseph), if the experiment fails, moving him (for Staios) is virtually impossible. Jensen is going to be a disaster, while Ullmark is a bigger question mark for me than most, as I go over here (in short: what will his performance be outside of Boston’s defense-first system? And he’s never had to handle a starter’s workload).
The above are the NHL roster changes, but what about in the system? (Players in italics are on AHL-deals; those in italics and green are prospects):
Gone
Jarventie, LW, 21, AHL 22-9-11-20 0.91 (T – Edm)
Chartier, CL, 27, AHL 19-7-6-13 0.68 (FA KHL)
Sokolov, RW, 24, AHL 71-21-25-46 0.65 (T – Utah)
Larsson, DL, 26, AHL 61-7-26-33 0.54 (FA NLA)
Currie, CR, 31, AHL 62-12-17-29 0.47 (FA DEL)
Smejkal, LW, 26, AHL 47-9-13-22 0.47 (FA Czech)
Thomson, RD, 23, AHL 67-6-15-21 0.31 (Loan SHL)
Imama, LW, 27, AHL 53-3-7-10 0.19 (FA Pit)
Saulnier, CL, 29, AHL 36-3-4-7 0.19 (FA Wsh)
Fizer, RW/CR, 22, AHL 30-2-3-5 0.17 (FA Stl)
Heatherington, LD, 28, AHL 60-3-7-10 0.17 (FA Ana)
MacKinnon, RD, 29, 29-0-3-3 0.10 (FA Slovakia)
Mandolese, G, 23, AHL .901 3.07 (T – Col)
Added
Gaudette, RW, 28, AHL 67-44-27-71 1.05 (FA Stl)
Jenik, CL, 24, AHL 55-16-20-36 0.65 (T – Utah)
Davies, DL, 27, AHL 66-12-23-35 0.53 (FA Buf)
Bourgault, CR/RW, 21, AHL 55-8-12-20 0.36 (T – Edm)
Hodgson, RW, 28, AHL 49-6-10-16 0.32 (FA LA)
Wylie, DR, 24, AHL 45-2-11-13 0.29 (FA LA)
Roos, DL, 25, AHL 59-2-14-16 0.27 (FA Chi)
Washkurak, CL, 23, AHL 63-4-6-10 0.16 (FA Stl)
Chaisson, RW, 20, ECHL 68-9-11-20 0.29 (T – Edm)
Simpson, G, 21, OHL .908 2.59 (FA)
Donovan, DL, 20, OHL 66-13-33-46 0.69 (5-136/22)
Hamara, DL, 20, OHL 44-1-19-20 0.45 (3-87/22)
Toure, DR, 21, OHL 45-8-10-18 0.40 (FA 23)
The BSens got younger and less talented (a talent gap with very little to fill it over the next few years, as the Sens have persistently drafted pluggers and grinders, cf). It’s likely one of Hamara or Donovan (probably the former) will be loaned elsewhere rather than stay as an eighth defenseman.
Let’s talk about the major changes at this level. Thomson (first-rounder), Sokolov (2nd-rounder), and Jarventie (2nd-rounder) have all been moved (albeit the Sens retain the rights to the blueliner). I don’t like any of this, but I will make the org’s case for each:
Thomson – struggled under coach Bell and regressed (in part due to usage, although I’m sure Bell would argue his performance dictated that change); he needs to get his confidence back and because of changes in Ottawa there actually is room for him should he return next season (he’s arguably already better than the 6/7’s the Sens have on their right side, namely JBD and Hamonic), although he’s much more likely to have his rights traded for virtually nothing.
Sokolov – his skating remains abysmal, but his down year seems tied to confidence and the Sens could reasonably fear there’s no more upside. I think the player they swapped him for (Jenik) has his own issues, but Gaudette can replace the production if he flames out and the team has to hope the change of scenery for Jenik works out. Of the two trades this is the one I understand best, even if I think in terms of talent the Sens got the worst end of it.
Jarventie – his trajectory is fine, so his issue is staying healthy (he’s missed half of each of the last two seasons). With that said, the Sens got nothing of value in return, as the Oilers simply washed their hands of two failed picks with term remaining. Why trade him for nothing? It’s the sort of impatience that’s becoming a Staios trademark–an unwillingness to wait and get better value in favour of making moves quickly. There’s no universe where this isn’t better for Edmonton.
The 2024-25 Ottawa Senators (on paper)
To avoid this getting cluttered with text I’m going to include just points-per-game in brackets (positioning the expected LW-C-RW); I’m not predicting lines, simply listing them in order of prior performance with additions in green (two-way contracts in italics):
Tkachuk (0.91)-Stutzle (0.93)-Batherson (0.80)
Perron (0.62)-Pinto (0.66)-Giroux (0.78)
Crookshank (0.23)-Greig (0.36)-Amadio (0.37)
Gregor (0.19)-Highmore (0.29)-MacEwen (0.10)
IR: Norris (0.60)
Chabot (0.59)-Zub (0.36)
Sanderson (0.48)-Jensen (0.19)
Kleven (0.11)-JBD (0.19)
Hamonic (0.13)
Ullmark (0.915)-Forsberg (0.890)
It’s a serviceable first line, a weak second unit, a third based on potential, and an AHL fourth line. Things are hypothetically better if Norris returns, but he did not look great last year and I wonder if his shoulders will ever recover. As for the D, the right side is awful and outside the top-two there’s nothing on the left side. The goaltending has improved to average, but the team has to see production increases from a significant number of players to compete. Anyone facing Ottawa just has to target the first line and it’s going to be an easy night.
It’s possible the talented Halliday could get a shot at the NHL-level (the third-line would make the most sense), or a plugger like Ostapchuk on the fourth, but to me Crookshank (given his age and having nothing left to prove in the AHL) makes the most sense to start (as does Highmore who has plenty of NHL experience (146 games)–Gaudette is also an option, with 220 games). If Norris is healthy it’s not clear to me which of the two-ways get sent down (and we have to bear in mind that MacEwen could wind up in Belleville despite the one-way), but I don’t want to get lost in the weeds of that speculation this early.
The Depth Chart
This is purely a recall list in terms of how I think the org thinks (so based on performance and things that have been said).
Talented Forwards
Halliday
Jenik (assuming he bounces back)
Grinding Forwards
Gaudette (grinds at the NHL level)
Ostapchuk
Talented blueliners
Guenette
Defensive blueliners
Matinpalo
Goaltenders
Sogaard
Meralainen
The AHL depth on the blueline is filled with questions and it’s unclear if any can fill-in at a replacement level. The forward side isn’t much better, albeit Gaudette can do spot duty (as mentioned above) and Halliday is a real talent. Sogaard has struggled at the NHL-level (in 27 games he’s .884), but the talent is there. Meralainen has been inconsistent, but he’s younger and can probably fill in on an emergency basis if necessary (4 games, all as a rookie, .878). I think this is a make-or-break year for Sogaard (I mean from an organizational perspective, as from my point-of-view, at only 23, he’s still years away from his peak).
Have Things Improved?
I didn’t pose the question as the basis of the article, but it’s an implied one when going through this. Are the 24-25 Ottawa Senators better (on paper) than the 23-24 Sens? Let’s recall that going into last season The Athletic (and others) projected Ottawa to be on the outside looking in with a 94-point season. Ottawa submarined that with an anemic 78-points. The Athletic likes just one move the Sens made in the off-season (the obvious improvement, although they echo my concerns about the acquisition), but I think they (like the fanbase) bought into the pre-season hysteria from last year. We’ll see more sober estimates this season. But I digress, what do I think of the comparative rosters? The blueline is worse, the goaltending is better, and the forward group is less talented. I say the latter with the caveat that Greig and other young players could improve significantly, but we don’t know that and straight-up swapping Tarasenko for Perron is a downgrade. Overall the changes are a wash, given that some things will go better than expected and other things will be worse, but the Sens really are just a few injuries away from a season just as bad as last year. The org cannot (or will not) attempt to address their talent depth and Staios can’t win trades. I think they will get more points than last year, but not make the playoffs (similar to 22-23, so mid to high 80s in points).
This article was written by Peter Levi
2 Comments
Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI
eyeonthesens 
[…] Looking Ahead to the 24-25 Season […]
[…] Looking Ahead to the 24-25 Season […]