Another twosome of games to comment on. The up and down season of Marcus Hogberg continues, as in an unexpected start (Taylor was ill) he earned Belleville’s first shutout of the season, and in the following game got shelled before getting pulled (not all the goals were his fault, but he needs to be better). This struggle with consistency took him over a month to sort out in the ECHL while being a regular starter–how long it takes in the AHL remains to be seen, but no one should fear he’s another bust like Matt O’Connor (whose AHL struggles are now ECHL struggles–the NCAA FA hasn’t had a shutout at either level, incidentally)–it’s far too early to judge. McCormick missed this game because he was in Ottawa and the team missed him not at all.

Belleville 2, Rochester 0
boxscore
Shots: 26-33
PP: 0-3 (5-on-3)
PK: 0-1
Scoring chances: 8
Key saves: 9
The Goals
1. Flanagan scores short side as the Amerks goaltender goes down early and is slightly off the post
2. Reinhart empty-netter as Blunden flips the puck ahead and he wins the foot race

Notable plays: Gagne misses the net on a great chance from just above the hashmarks (first); great feed by Chlapik, but Paul shoots it wide (first); Sexton misses the net on a 3-on-2 (first); O’Brien shoots the puck over the net on a 3-on-1 (second); Chlapik hits the post (second); a weird penalty shot call for Rochester, but they hit the post (second); 2-on-1 but Paul can’t complete the pass (third); two of the scoring chances were off great feeds from Chlapik.

Belleville 4, Toronto 7

Unfortunately both McCormick and Blunden were returned to the team for this game (Jordan Murray also returned from injury–inexplicably he replaced the highly productive Ben Harpur on the first powerplay unit and helped it not at all).

I missed the first 10:34 of the game because it was not broadcast due to technical difficulties (I missed the first three goals of the game and 10 total shots on goal–3 by Belleville–but no penalties). This problem seems to have been in the arena because as of this writing I haven’t seen highlights posted. The BSens had a season high in scoring chances (one more than their 3-2 win over Rochester a month ago), but were sloppy defensively, didn’t get a great night from Hogberg, and were guilty (again!) of taking selfish and pointless penalties in the third period (more about that below). Tyler Randell, incidentally, scored his first goal against a goalie this season (39 games in)–another quality FA signing from Randy Lee.

boxscore
Shots: 25-30
PP: 0-3
PK: 3-4 (5 min major)
Scoring chances: 16
Key saves: 6/3 (keeping in mind I missed seven shots on Hogberg in the first)
The Goals
1. Toronto – point shot (I only have the BSens Twitter feed to describe it)
2. Toronto – tap-in or one-timer via a centering pass (as above)
3. Reinhart (no description provided)
4. Sexton bangs in Chlapik’s pass
5. Toronto – both Englund and Gagne are guilty of puck-watching as a rebound is banged in by an uncontested Marlie in the slot
6. Paul bangs in a rebound
7. Toronto – one-timer from the top of the circle
8. Toronto – one-timer from the slot
9. Toronto – Hogberg beat five-hole as he slides from post-to-post
10. Toronto PP – Taylor beat by a clean shot from the top of the circle
11. Randell scores on a nice feed from Reinhart

Notable plays: two great scoring chances were via passes from Chlapik (first); Burgdoerfer falls awkwardly and struggles to get off the ice, but returned (first);
Blunden shoots it over an empty net (second); Paul misses the net with an open side (second); Chlapik accidentally runs over a referee (second; he was fine); Sieloff misses an empty net (second); Blunden targets a Marlies’ head and is rightfully kicked out of the game (third; the org should have no tolerance for that, but we’ll just hear excuses from them); Gagne gets drilled (third; clean hit and he seemed fine); Flanagan hits the post (third).

I mentioned the dumb penalties and this is a season-long trend by the BSens–the players guilty of taking them are all “leaders”–Blunden, McCormick, O’Brien, etc. These are undisciplined, selfish plays and there have been no consequences from the coaching staff whatsoever. This approach is something we saw from Luke Richardson as well (vets could do whatever they wanted). There’s no excuse for this–there ought to be even less tolerance for veterans. It’s worth pointing out that in games where the BSens have given up two or few powerplays they are 5-1 on the season (giving up only 13 goals, which is far below their norm)–the arithmetic is pretty simple.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 10, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Back in late December I took a look at the BSens powerplay and with less than thirty games left in the season it’s time to take a look at the team’s PK. The raw percentage for the team is terrible (77.2%, tied for 28th in the league, but giving up the second most goals with 49–only Laval is worse). There’s nothing unique about the BSens strategy on the PK (a fairly passive box), although as the season has gone on they’ve often chosen to use just two or three defensemen on the rotation when trusted players are injured.

In the absence of useful stats from the AHL what we can do is look at deployment (in this case a shift count)–who is being used and to what level of success? Given injuries and call-ups there’s been significant variety so there’s a lot to break down. First, let’s look at usage broken down by shifts-per-game (minimum 20 shifts and averaging 1 per game):
Forwards
Sexton 4.4
McCormick 3.97
Kelly 3.93
Blunden 3.77
O’Brien 3.71
Flanagan 3.0
White 2.84
Perron 2.02
Paul 1.93
Randell 1.86
Rodewald 1.18

Defense
Sieloff 4.7
Harpur 4.66
Englund 4.51
Burgdoerfer 4.23
Jaros 2.58
Erkamps 1.00

Small sample size is something to keep in mind, as Sexton has only played in 10 games, Flanagan 14, Harpur 15, etc. There’s a clear preference on defense (four primaries with a regular sprinkling of Jaros) and at forward (four–five with the departed Kelly–getting the heaviest usage).

So that’s frequency, but what about effectiveness? Here’s how they stack up based on goals against per shift:
Forwards
O’Brien, White, Paul, Sexton 0.06
Blunden, Flanagan 0.07
Randell 0.08
Rodewald 0.11
McCormick, Kelly, Perron 0.12

Defense
Erkamps 0.06
Sieloff 0.07
Harpur 0.10
Burgdoerfer 0.11
Englund 0.13
Jaros 0.16

The small sample size (in this case infrequency of use) means we can’t trust Erkamps’ numbers, but in general this is a fair if broad representation of relative success. Clearly this doesn’t quite match up with usage, so here they are together:
Forwards
Sexton 4.4/0.06
McCormick 3.97/0.12
Kelly 3.93/0.12
Blunden 3.77/0.07
O’Brien 3.71/0.06
Flanagan 3.0/0.07
White 2.84/0.06
Perron 2.02/0.12
Paul 1.93/0.06
Randell 1.86/0.08
Rodewald 1.18/0.11

Defense
Sieloff 4.7/0.07
Harpur 4.66/0.10
Englund 4.51/0.13
Burgdoerfer 4.23/0.11
Jaros 2.58/0.16
Erkamps 1.00/0.06

For the most part with the blueliners’ success follows usage, but at forward Kleinendorst’s favouritism impacts what he does, as Kelly and McCormick play more than their effectiveness justifies. Looking at this you’d say the top four PK forwards should be Sexton, O’Brien, Paul, and Flanagan (White is in the NHL, but if not, he bumps Flanagan), with the top-four D remaining as is with some Erkamps experimentation to see if his ability is sustainable. How does this hold up to actual pairings? We can break down who helps or hinders by seeing results depending on partners, so let’s take a look at the most frequent combinations (the dates in brackets aren’t necessarily absolute timeframes–they can also indicate the heaviest usage; the numbers are shifts vs goals against):

Forward Pairs
McCormick-O’Brien 0.06 100-6 (Nov-Jan)
Perron-White 0.05 39-2 (Nov-Jan)
Kelly-Blunden 0.08 34-3 (Dec-Jan)
Randell-Blunden 0.08 23-2 (Dec)
McCormick-Sexton 0.09 22-2 (Oct-Nov)
Paul-Rodewald 0.05 19-1 (Oct)
Kelly-Randell 0.13 15-2 (Dec)
Paul-O’Brien 0.00 14-0 (Oct-Nov)
Sexton-Blunden 0.08 12-1 (Feb)
McCormick-White 0.16 12-2 (Nov)
White-Flanagan 0.00 11-0 (Jan)
McCormick-Paul 0.09 11-1 (Oct)
Perron-Flanagan 0.00 10-0 (Jan)
O’Brien-Blunden 0.00 9-0 (Oct)
McCormick-Flanagan 0.11 9-1 (Jan-Feb)
Perron-O’Brien 0.12 8-1 (Oct-Nov)
Perron-Randell 0.12 8-1 (Oct/Dec)
Perron-Paul 0.14 7-1 (Oct/Jan)
McCormick-Blunden 0.14 7-1 (Oct/Jan)
Flanagan-Blunden 0.14 7-1 (Jan)
Sexton-O’Brien 0.00 6-0 (Oct)
O’Brien-Randell 0.00 6-0 (Oct-Nov)
McCormick-Randell 0.20 5-1 (Dec)
Paul-Sexton 0.40 5-2 (Nov)
Paul-White 0.00 4-0 (Dec)
McCormick-Rodewald 0.25 4-1 (Nov)
Perron-Kelly 0.50 4-2 (Dec)

While some of this bewildering variety is due to injury and experimentation, it’s far above what any coach should want in terms of stability and consistency. Kleinendorst has feels a compulsive need to play aging vets like Kelly beyond the bounds of reason. It’s also difficult to understand the decision to either get away from or stick with particular combinations. Conclusions: White, O’Brien, and (so far) Sexton make their partners better, while McCormick tends to be a drag on his partner and Perron is someone who reflects his partner (for good or ill). Paul, who has mostly played well in this role, was largely removed from the PK in mid-November for no apparent reason. In White’s absence and looking at the data, what we should be seeing is Sexton, O’Brien, Paul, and Flanagan getting the bulk of the time (we already know Paul-O’Brien works from the above).

Defense Partners
Englund-Burgdoerfer 0.14 87-13*
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer 0.08 69-6
Harpur-Burgdoerfer 0.06 43-3 (Dec+)
Englund-Sieloff 0.05 37-2
Englund-Jaros 0.17 35-6
Sieloff-Jaros 0.05 18-1 (Oct-Dec)
Englund-Erkamps 0.00 17-0 (Oct-Nov)
Sieloff-Harpur 0.13 15-2
Murray-Jaros 0.14 14-2 (Nov-Jan)
Englund-Harpur 0.16 12-2 (Nov-Jan)
Murray-Erkamps 0.00 10-0 (Nov-Dec)
Englund-Murray 0.20 10-2 (Nov-Dec)
Murray-Burgdoerfer 0.22 9-2 (Nov-Dec)
Lajoie-Jaros 0.00 6-0 (Jan)
*the duo had a horrific January (34-9), making them 43-4 otherwise (0.09)

A few things become apparent looking at it this way: Sieloff makes everyone better, with Harpur helping to a lesser degree; Burgdoerfer and Murray are drags on whoever they play with, while Englund’s impact seems more of a neutral factor–he can’t make up for his partner, but he doesn’t hurt either. Jaros is heavily effected by who he plays with (good with Lajoie and Sieloff, struggles elsewhere). Looking at what’s been tried I’d put Sieloff back with Englund and keep Burgdoerfer with Harpur until Jaros is healthy (and why not mix in some Erkamps so you can find out if the guy is actually a decent penalty killer or not?).

A few other player-specific comments:
-White, who has easily been the team’s best penalty killer, only started getting top rotation in January–Kleinendorst is so reluctant to trust younger players that even with a first-rounder like that he needed two months of watching before pulling the trigger
-Rodewald’s usage fell off at the same time as Paul’s, but his numbers aren’t nearly as good suggesting this was a smart coaching decision
-Randell received a huge spike in usage in December (60% of his deployment for the year) which has since dropped off to his more typical levels
-A third of Erkamps’ shifts come from a single game in October (4-2 loss to Syracuse) and over half from October in general–so buyer beware, but that’s not a reason to ram Murray into the PK (which was what Kleinendorst switched too)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 7, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another pair of games are in the books so here are my thoughts (incidentally, my PK piece is almost done–all the leg work is completed, I just need to wrap it up). They were games of contrast, as the BSens looked competent against the struggling Devils, but were outclassed by the speedy and aggressive Sound Tigers (wtf is a sound tiger anyway?).

Belleville 3, Binghamton 2 (OT)
boxscore
Shots: 31-38
PP: 1-3
PK: 4-5
Scoring chances: 9
The Goals
1. Binghamton – low wrist shot from the point is tipped in
2. PP – Paul nice tip in front
3. Binghamton PP – rebound banged in (Blunden is too slow to get there for coverage)
4. Erkamps floats one in through a screen
Werek scored the only goal in the shootout (as the fourth shooter)

It was another solid effort from Danny Taylor, who seems to be back to his expected form (sitting out nine games either allowed him to get healthy or get his game in order–hey Randy Lee–move the guy while you can!). Sexton looked good in his return to the lineup, although we still saw too much Blunden and Randell remains dressed (always a failing). Sieloff’s return to the lineup also helped; ECHLer Corrin may not have played a shift in the game (by the time I started looking he wasn’t playing).

Notable plays: Sexton hit the crossbar (second); Taylor bails out Burgdoerfer (second); Rodewald misses the net on a 2-on-1 (nice pass by Chlapik; second–thus this Tweet); Gagne scores on a tip, but it’s waived off (goalie interference; second); Rodewald hurt via a crosscheck in front of the net (second; he would miss the next game); Sieloff misses the net in the slot (second); Taylor bails out Englund who got turned into a pylon (second); Chlapik misses the net from the high slot (third); Harpur passes to the wrong team (OT).

Belleville 1, Bridgeport 3
boxscore
Shots: 25-27
PP: 1-2
PK: 5-5 (including a 4-on-3 and 5-on-3)
Scoring chances: 6
The Goals
1. Bridgeport – bang in a loose puck
2. Bridgeport – wrist shot from the slot
3. Bridgeport – cross crease pass banged in (Blunden just can’t keep up on the backcheck)
4. PP Chlapik bangs in a centering pass

Taylor was solid in net, but there was no need to play him in back-to-back games (what’s the point of having three other goaltenders if you aren’t going to play them?). Kleinendorst may be feeling the heat to get the team into the playoffs, but Taylor hasn’t shown any ability to win in this scenario so it smacks of desperation.

Bridgeport showed great speed and pressure, which was fun to watch (don’t let the close shot clock fool you, this game was not close). I will say the camera set-up for their arena is terrible–it’s so far back it made it really hard to see the jersey numbers; the Bridgeport play-by-play guy said what no one is saying in Belleville: the lack of discipline by team leaders is a huge problem (both Blunden and McCormick were guilty of taking selfish, stupid penalties). Once again I’m not sure how much or if Corrin played.

Almost no notable plays: Blunden erases a potential powerplay by taking a penalty on the delayed call (second); Gagne with a great deke through traffic that’s stymied by the goaltender; O’Brien misses the net on a 2-on-1 with Chlapik; McCormick takes a dumb penalty in the third (a pointless crosscheck off a faceoff).

Filip Chlapik’s return has been a blessing for the underperforming Nick Paul and the team’s powerplay, but the BSens are 1-4-1 and despite being in an awful division show no signs of the kind of run they’d need to make it to the playoffs (barring the hockey gods sending Thomas Chabot back).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 6, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another month is in the books in yet another failed season for the Sens AHL affiliate (the architect pictured above), so it’s time to take a look at who did well and who did not.

The team compiled a middling 5-6-1 record (better than December’s 3-8-1), anchored around a a three-game winning streak and trailing off with four straight losses. Their limp scoring from December carried on unabated (2.08 vs 2.16), although they did cut down their goals against (3.58 vs 4.33). The team fired a similar number of shots, but gave up even more than the previous month (-91 differential vs -74 in December), meaning the change in goals against is a reflection of goaltending rather than improved team defense. On special teams the powerplay improved slightly (15.7%), although it scored fewer goals (6 vs 8); the penalty kill continued to be terrible (74.5% vs 75%), despite giving up one less goal (13 vs 14).

The Roster

Ben Sexton and Patrick Sieloff missed the entire month with injury (Sieloff has been out since late December, while Sexton hasn’t played since November 4th). Thomas Chabot is gone forever playing out the string in Ottawa; Andrew Hammond missed all but one game this month on recall in Colorado. Filip Chlapik, Colin White, and Ben Harpur spent significant chunks of the month in Ottawa.

Cody Donaghey remains banished to the ECHL (32-2-3-5 for the season), despite a desperate need on defense. Vincent Dunn also seems to be gone permanently (14-7-1-8), with the more useful Daniel Ciampini (14-3-10-13) playing just one game in Belleville. Chris Driedger, who was given only one start this month, wasn’t sent to Brampton for playing time.

The Chris Kelly experiment recurred, as he signed a new PTO coming off winning the Spengler Cup. His second chance kept him in shape prior to his Olympic appearance, but he again failed to deliver. Kleinendorst, unlike the first round of Kelly, inexplicably put him on scoring lines most of the time (which was a disaster).

Stats (arranged by points-per-game; FA signings in blue, ELC’s in green)

Ben Harpur 5-0-4-4 0.80
Jim O’Brien 12-3-4-7 0.58
Max McCormick 12-2-5-7 0.58
Colin White 7-3-1-4 0.57
Jordan Murray 10-2-3-5 0.50
Christian Jaros 9-1-3-4 0.44
Gabriel Gagne 11-3-1-4 0.36
Jamie Doornbosch 3-0-1-1 0.33
Ethan Werek 10-1-2-3 0.30
Chris Kelly 7-0-2-2 0.28
Erik Burgdoerfer 11-2-1-3 0.27
Chris DiDomenico 11-0-3-3 0.27
Filip Chlapik 4-0-1-1 0.25
Mike Blunden 12-3-0-3 0.25
Andreas Englund 12-0-3-3 0.25
Max Reinhart 9-2-0-2 0.22
Kyle Flanagan 10-0-2-2 0.20
Nick Paul 12-2-0-2 0.16
Francis Perron 12-0-2-2 0.16
Jack Rodewald 12-0-2-2 0.16
Max Lajoie 7-0-1-1 0.14
Macoy Erkamps 10-0-1-1 0.10
Daniel Ciampini 1-0-0-0
Willie Corrin 3-0-0-0
Tyler Randell 4-0-0-0

Danny Taylor 3-1-1 .920 2.53
Andrew Hammond 1-0-0-0 .913 2.00
Marcus Hogberg 1-4-0 .880 4.32
Chris Driedger 0-1-0 .851 5.25

A few players are going through profound slumps:
–Perron has no points in his last six and hasn’t scored in fifteen (admittedly with minimal PP time and mostly playing on the fourth line)
–Rodewald has no points in his last eight and hasn’t scored in fourteen (this hasn’t impacted his ice time, although he has been yanked off the PP); since signing his ELC he’s tanked hard (27-2-2-4), echoing his hot/cold performance last season (when he was on an AHL-deal)
–Paul, prior to scoring in the team’s last game, had gone ten games without a point and has just four since November 3rd (21-3-1-4)–definitely time for the team to move him elsewhere
–Gagne went through a terrible streak (12-0-0-0) going back into late December, but has pulled out of it of late (5-3-1-4)

DiDomenico has also fallen off a cliff in terms of scoring, albeit he spent most of the month banished to the third or fourth line (because reasons). Werek, like DiDomenico, is producing less, but received limited ice time.

The primary positives are: Jaros, whose production and defensive play have improved; Harpur (offensively, albeit a small sample size); and White (offensively and defensively).

Special Teams

The raw numbers are above, but I’ll quickly go through usage vs effectiveness (minimum five games played, averaging a shift per game).

Powerplay
Usage
Forwards: Werek, DiDomenico, White, Gagne, Paul, and Blunden
Defense: Murray, Harpur, Lajoie, and Jaros
On-Ice for Goals Scored*
Forwards: White, DiDomenico, Werek, Paul, O’Brien, and Gagne
Defense: Harpur, Murray, Jaros, and Lajoie
* this has limitations in terms of value, but it’s an indicator on the extremes

The main takeaway from this is what a tank Blunden is on the PP (despite extensive usage) and how org darling McCormick continues to be a non-factor (he played less this month, but still saw regular action). Games played keeps Chlapik off this list, while who knows what Perron needs to do to get consistent chances here.

Penalty Kill
Usage
Forwards: McCormick, Kelly, White, and Blunden
Defense: Harpur, Burgdoerfer, Englund, and Jaros
On-Ice for Goals Against (fewest)
Forwards: White, O’Brien, Perron, and Kelly
Defense: Jaros, Harpur, and Englund/Burgdoerfer

Half the most successful forwards aren’t on the most frequent list, as McCormick and Blunden were burned the most on the PK; on the blueline Burgdoerfer is the torpedo for his partner–dragging Englund down with him. White’s improvement on the PK since the start of the season is startling (in the last two months he’s only been on the ice for just two–two!–goals against (through 19 games). Jaros has also improved tremendously, as he started off as one of the worst PK defenseman (statistically at least). Incidentally, since Jaros’ injury Kleinendorst has varied between using just one pair of blueliners for the entire PK or rotating with three.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

February 2, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

I’m behind on my game breakdowns and so I’ll break format to sum things up as efficiently as possible.

Belleville 1 Manitoba 4
Boxscore
Shots: 24-29
PP: 0-2
PK: 3-4
Scoring chances: 3
The Goals
1. Manitoba – Flanagan stripped of the puck and Taylor is beaten five-hole
2. Manitoba PP – Taylor beat on a clean wrist-shot from the high slot
3. Manitoba – Taylor gives up a fat rebound that gets bounced in behind him
4. Manitoba – Gagne is lazy on the backcheck and the third man on the rush beats Taylor
5. SH McCormick deflects in O’Brien’s pass on a 2-on-1

Danny Taylor returned to form (in a bad way) and the BSens didn’t put up much of a fight in their loss to the Moose (season low for scoring chances). The lines were ridiculous, with Chris Kelly the first line center (again!), Tyler Randell dressed for no particular reason, and two ECHL call-ups were on the blueline (as they were for the next two games). This was the kind of game that inspires Tweets like this.

Not many notable plays: O’Brien misses the empty-net on a wrap-around (first); Gagne can’t complete a pass on a 2-on-1 (first).

Belleville 2 Syracuse 5
Boxscore
Shots: 24-36
PP: 1-4
PK: 6-6
Scoring chances: 7
The Goals
1. Syracuse – on a delayed penalty call the puck is tipped in
2. Syracuse – Hogberg beat low with a wrist shot unopposed in the slot
3. Syracuse – Paul turns it over, Burgdoerfer can’t handle the loose puck despite no pressure and no one takes the open man
4. PP Burgdoerfer splits the D and scores on a weak backhand through the five-hole
5. Syracuse – tipped in front during a 4-on-4
6. Burgdoerfer’s shot from the point goes in (looked like it was tipped)
7. Syracuse – BSens pull the goalie early and Gagne is stripped of the puck

Marcus Hogberg got another start and while he made some mistakes he made 31 saves and the team in front of him was defensively awful (I had him making 13 key saves–13!). Kelly was gone at this point, but there was still confusion with the lines as Reinhart and Blunden played far more than they should and DiDomenico and Perron were buried on the fourth line.

Notable plays: BSens lose a 1-on-3 in front of their net, but the Crunch miss the net (first); Paul misses the net all alone in front (first); puck squeaks through Hogberg but he bats it out of the way before it can be put in (first); Flanagan turned into a pylon, but Hogberg bails him out (first); McCormick gives up a 2-on-1 (first); Crunch pull their goalie with 3 seconds left for an offensive faceoff (first); BSens no shot on a 2-on-1 (O’Brien with the pass; second); Paul misses the net in the slot (second); Werek was hurt by a shot from his own team (hit his knee; stays in the game; second); McCormick takes a penalty one-second into a powerplay (third); Hogberg saves a goal late (this was video reviewed; third).

Belleville 3 Rochester 4 (OT)
Boxscore
Shots: 24-40
PP: 2-5 (includes 4-on-3 and 5-on-3)
PK: 5-7
Scoring chances: 8
The Goals
1. Syracuse – bangs in their own rebound
2. PP Paul bangs in Harpur’s rebound
3. PP Gagne with lot’s of room goes shelf
4. Rochester PP – shot from the point goes through a crowd and Taylor
5. O’Brien on a breakaway (backhand)
6. Syracuse – Rodewald puck-watching on the rush and his man bangs in a fat rebound
7. Syracuse PP – rebound gets batted in

A better game out of Taylor (36 saves), although he wasn’t thrown to the wolves the same way Hogberg was in the previous game. The team in front of him was pretty bad defensively, but a little better offensively (some of that can be attributed to slightly more intelligible lines, albeit Randell was once more in the line-up for no reason).

Notable plays: Harpur falls awkwardly into the boards and is hurt (first); Syracuse scores (first), but it’s waived off due to a high stick; Blunden tries to go one-on-one and comedy results (third).

The team is now on a four-game losing streak in which they’ve been badly outshot in three of the four games. On the plus side Filip Chlapik is back with the team which is a boon to their offensive potential.

I have thoughts about the month of January and Chris Kelly to share and I still owe you all my PK breakdown–it’s all coming in the near future.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 31, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

I’ve been working on a detailed breakdown of the BSens PK (similar to what I did on the powerplay a month ago), but while that’s in progress I thought I’d go over the team’s player usage vs success on both special teams up to this point (if coaches are going to have any impact on a team, this is one of the most noticeable places for it–for the difficulty in understanding the impact of coaching see here).

I thought the easiest way to break the data into manageable chunks was to look at team performance month-to-month, noting the top used players (front and back) for that period and then tally it all up at the end (fewer games played skews the numbers, so I’ve put the cut off at around 45% of games played per month–a minimum of 4 in October, 6 in November, 5 in December, and 4 in January; games played is less relevant on the PK, so I’ve focused on the shift-count since it better represents actual TOI).

October (PP 4-49 (8.1), PK 39-47 (82.9))
Powerplay (by usage; games, points, on-ice for goals)
Forwards
DiDomenico 4-1-1-2 (2)
Rodewald 5-0-0-0 (2)
Chlapik 8-0-2-2 (3)
Sexton 4-0-0-0 (3)
Paul 8-0-1-1 (3)
McCormick 7-0-0-0 (0)
Defense
Chabot 5-1-2-3 (3)
Jaros, 8-1-1 (3)
Lajoie 9-0-2-2 (3)
Burgdoerfer 9-1-1-2 (3)

Also getting points were Werek (two goals as the eighth most common forward) and Perron (one assist as the tenth most common forward).

Penalty Kill (on-ice for goals against)
Forwards (by usage)
Rodewald 21/5 (1)
Paul 33/8 (2)
Sexton 16/4 (1)
McCormick 27/7 (5)
O’Brien 33/9 (3)
Blunden 14/4 (0)
Defense
Englund 50/9 (3)
Sieloff 49/9 (3)
Erkamps 18/4 (1)
Burgdoerfer 37/9 (3)

Harpur didn’t play enough games to make the cut; both Jaros and Chabot also received semi-regular PK rotation

November (PP 6-50 (12.0), PK 41-54 (75.9))
Powerplay
Forwards
White 13-0-0-0 (3)
Rodewald 7-0-0-0 (2)
Chlapik 13-1-2-3 (3)
Gagne 13-2-0-2 (2)
Paul 6-0-0-0 (1)
McCormick 13-0-3-3 (3)
Defense
Chabot 8-0-2-2 (2)
Jaros 6-0-0-0 (0)
Murray 12-0-0-0 (2)
Burgdoerfer 13-0-0-0 (2)

Other players with points are: O’Brien with two (both goals) as the eighth most used forward, Perron (an assist) as the ninth, Reinhart (a goal) as the tenth, and Lajoie (an assist), who would be the second most used, but only played three games.

Penalty Kill
Forwards
McCormick 46/13 (5)
O’Brien 43/13 (2)
Paul 17/6 (1)
White 36/13 (4)
Rodewald 19/7 (4)
Perron 32/13 (6)
Defense
Sieloff 49/13 (4)
Englund 47/13 (5)
Burgdoerfer 40/13 (5)
Jaros 18/6 (5)

Kelly was also a regular forward, but didn’t hit the game threshold; no other defenseman approached the rotation frequency of these four.

December (PP 8-52 (15.3), PK 42-56 (75.0))
Powerplay
Forwards
White 12-1-3-4 (7)
DiDomenico 10-1-1-2 (4)
Chlapik 6-1-0-1 (1)
Rodewald 12-1-0-1 (4)
McCormick 12-0-0-0 (1)
O’Brien 12-0-1-1 (2)
Defense
Murray 12-1-2-3 (5)
Jaros 7-0-2-2 (3)
Lajoie 10-0-0-0 (0)

Also getting points were Werek (two goals and an assist), Gagne (a goal), Perron (an assist), Reinhart (assist), Paul (assist), Harpur (assist), and Burgdoefer (assist). Harpur is under the game limit and Burgdoerfer’s use was so limited it’s essentially a three-horse race for this month because of forwards on the point.

Penalty Kill
Forwards
Kelly 30/6 (5)
McCormick 55/12 (5)
O’Brien 52/12 (4)
Blunden 35/9 (2)
Randell 42/11 (4)
White 31/12 (1)
Perron 27/12 (4)
Defense
Burgdoerfer 61/12 (4)
Englund 49/12 (8)
Sieloff 24/6 (2)
Jaros 17/7 (4)

Harpur didn’t play enough games and no one else played enough at either position to be included.

January (PP 3-26 (11.5), PK 24-34 (70.5))
Powerplay
Forwards
Werek 7-0-1-1 (3)
DiDomenico 9-0-2-2 (3)
Chlapik 4-0-1-1 (1)
White 5-1-0-1 (2)
Gagne 8-0-0-0 (0)
Paul 9-0-0-0 (1)
Defense
Murray 9-1-1-2 (2)
Lajoie 7-0-0-0 (0)
Jaros 9-1-0-1 (1)

Once again Harpur is below the threshold (he’s the only player who also has a point, an assist) and no other defenseman has played as forwards continue to man the point.

Penalty Kill
Forwards
Kelly 22/6 (2)
Blunden 32/9 (5)
McCormick 29/9 (4)
Flanagan 21/7 (3)
O’Brien 22/9 (0)
White 11/5 (1)
Defense
Burgdoerfer 38/9 (9)
Englund 35/9 (8)
Jaros 21/9 (1)

Harpur is below the game threshold and no other defender has done more than spot-duty.

Total (PP 23-177 (12.9), PK 146-191 (76.4))*
[AHL stats gives the Sens two more PP opportunities and three less PK’s–I get my numbers from official score sheets, so these presumably represent later changes which I admittedly have not tracked down (they make no significant changes to the percentages)]
Powerplay (minimum of 19 games played)
Forwards
DiDomenico 23-2-4-6 (9)
White 30-2-3-5 (12)
Chlapik 31-2-5-7 (8)
Paul 27-0-2-2 (6)
Rodewald 33-1-0-1 (9)
McCormick 41-0-3-3 (4)
Defense
Murray 36-2-3-5 (9)
Jaros 31-2-3-5 (7)
Lajoie 30-0-4-4 (5)
Burgdoerfer 43-1-2-3 (5)

Werek, who has six points, doesn’t make the cut; O’Brien, Gagne and Perron all have three points (the departed Chabot had four; Harpur, who has only played in ten games, has two).

Penalty Kill
Forwards
McCormick 157/41 (19)
Blunden 81/22 (7)
O’Brien 150/41 (9)
White 78/30 (6)
Perron/Paul 88/41 (11), 58/27 (4)
Defense
Sieloff 132/28 (9)
Englund 181/42 (24)
Burgdoerfer 176/43 (21)
Jaros 80/31 (13)

Kelly, Flanagan, and Sexton would appear in the top-six, but haven’t played enough games to appear here; the hands-of-stone that is Randell is pretty close to Paul and Perron (see below); Harpur has the usual games-played issue, otherwise no other defenseman is even close.

Final Numbers and Conclusions

Powerplay
The points-per-game element of the above is helpful for the powerplay (the one-ice for goals numbers are, I think, of minimal value), but points per shift matters, so here are how the players produce per use (keeping in mind both the 19 game minimum and at least 1.8 shifts per game–the weird number is where things really drop off in usage):
Forwards
Werek 0.081 (6/74)
DiDomenico 0.065 (6/91)
Chlapik 0.63 (7/111)
White 0.043 (5/115)
O’Brien 0.04 (3/74)
Perron 0.037 (3/80)
Gagne 0.031 (3/94)
McCormick 0.026 (3/114)
Reinhart 0.026 (2/76)
Paul 0.022 (2/88)
Blunden 0.02 (1/49)
Rodewald 0.01 (1/94)
Defense
Jaros 0.049 (5/102)
Lajoie 0.043 (4/91)
Murray 0.04 (5/123)

Let’s recall the usage order: DiDomencio, White, Chlapik, Paul, Rodewald, and McCormick–this is where coaching issues creep in. It’s only recently that Werek has become a PP regular (with Rodewald largely removed), but the steady diet of players like Blunden, Reinhart, and McCormick–veterans who simply don’t produce regularly–is frustrating when that time would be better spent developing players like Gagne and Perron. Since his return Blunden has cluttered up both special teams and while you can try and argue about his effectiveness on the PK, it’s simply not there on the powerplay. Kleinendorst takes forever to clue in to what does or doesn’t work and his compulsion to go back to what’s safe–the vets he likes–any times things aren’t going right causes the team all kinds of problems offensively.

In terms of driving the PP Chlapik has been the best forward for the team, even if the actual production isn’t the highest. Other than when he’s been on the point (where he’s not that effective), he handles the possession problems the team has. DiDomenico has been very streaky and when he’s frustrated loses effectiveness; Werek needs the right people around him to produce (he’s not a possession player)–no one else has been as consistent in producing as these three. On the blueline, while he’s streaky, Jaros is great–he has the big shot (something no one else, now that Chabot is gone, has on the roster), which means teams have to respect the shot. Murray, who I wasn’t happy with at all early in the season, has improved quite a bit, but I still think he’s far better on the second unit because of his issues entering the zone.

A final point on the PP–something I didn’t go into when I wrote about it last month–the team keeps putting forwards on the point and there’s little evidence it helps (indeed, I think it hurts). Virtually none of the forwards who play on the point produce while they are there (White was buried on the point for a long time when he returned from injury and its no coincidence that he didn’t start getting points until he was moved back to forward).

Penalty Kill
In determining the most effective penalty killer the raw goals-against totals (goals versus games) isn’t particularly useful–it’s better to look at the per-shift basis, so here’s how that works out (given both the 19 game minimum and averaging at least two shifts per game, although I’ve included a few in brackets just for the sake of context, keeping in mind how small sample size skews numbers):
Forwards
O’Brien 0.06
Paul 0.068
[Sexton 0.069]
White 0.076
Blunden 0.086
Randell 0.087 (69/33 (6))
McCormick 0.121
Perron 0.125
[Kelly 0.135]
[Flanagan 0.136]
Defense
Sieloff 0.068
Burgdoerfer 0.119
[Harpur 0.121]
Englund 0.132
Jaros 0.162

The only additional player who meets the criteria is Randell, who doesn’t play the toughest part of the PK (he’s always switched in, he’s never on the ice for a faceoff), but nonetheless has adequate numbers compared to the others. What is different is the order, with O’Brian, Paul, and White clearly the most effective penalty killing forwards, but playing behind org favourite McCormick (whose numbers away from O’Brien suffer considerably) and the lumbering Blunden. On D Sieloff’s ability to protect Burgdoerfer is quite apparent, while Englund isn’t able to work the same magic for his typical partners (Jaros and Burgdoerfer), yet oddly had chemistry with Erkamps (of all people).

While Sieloff adds nothing offensively, he’s remarkably effective as a penalty killer and his loss via injury has thrown a significant monkey wrench in the team’s effectiveness (admittedly even at its best is near the bottom of the league)–they are a miserable 40-60 (66.66%) without him in the lineup. The absence of Harpur most of the season hasn’t helped either. Whether the recent experiment with Lajoie on PK mean anything remains to be seen, but I’m puzzled why they don’t use Erkamps who, in very limited duty, has been fine in that capacity (0.0645).

Kleinendorst has consistently put Perron and Jaros out on the PK despite mixed results and that seems to be gradually paying off (albeit the coach does not trust them yet–my guess is there was an edict from on high to play them on the PK). Flanagan and White have helped out Perron a lot as partners; Jaros, conversely, seems to just be improving (albeit how much remains to be seen).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 23, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

I mentioned that in their previous game against Laval the BSens were badly outplayed, but still won. The situation remained the same in last night’s game except for the result. There’s going to be blame thrown Marcus Hogberg’s way and while some of that is deserved he made 38 saves so he could have been a lot worse too–he doesn’t score goals either. Before we get into the specifics, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 25-42
PP: 0-3
PK: 3-6 (two 5-on-3’s, getting scored on the lengthier one)
Goaltender: Hogberg got the start–he’d been pulled his last two starts as he’s the only goalie Kleinendorst has an itchy trigger finger with when it comes to pulls; while the big Swede wasn’t perfect, he actually played fairly well (nine key saves); Danny Taylor was the backup while Chris Driedger remains scratched (and you have to wonder what’s to become of him at this point) and Andrew Hammond is still in Colorado.

The Roster
Max Lajoie, who was sent head-first into the boards in the previous game, was understandably out of the lineup. Rather than make a call-up the team simply dressed thirteen forwards (an interesting decision–clearly they don’t want Cody Donaghey playing in Belleville, but perhaps the lack of a call was because Brampton was in Reading, PA–but who really knows?), bringing in the always useless Tyler Randell.

The Lines
Perron-Kelly-Blunden
Paul-O’Brien-Rodewald
McCormick-Reinhart-DiDomenico
Werek-Flanagan-Gagne
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Burgdoerfer
Randell-Erkamps

Yes, that’s Chris Kelly slotted as the #1 center and no, the staff didn’t make a lot of adjustments once they were down by several goals. Randell, incidentally, did not rotate in as a defenseman–instead Reinhart played on the blueline, with a variety of forwards on the third line and Randell on the fourth.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-Reinhart-DiDomenico/Murray-Perron
Werek-Paul-DiDomenico/Murray-Perron
Gagne-Reinhart-O’Brien/Murray-Perron
Gagne-Reinhart-McCormick/Murray-Rodewald
Penalty Kill
Kelly-Blunden, McCormick-Flanagan (scored on), McCormick-Blunden (scored on), Perron-Flanagan, McCormick-O’Brien, Kelly-Flanagan, Rodewald-Randell, Kelly, McCormick (scored on),
Englund-Burgdoerfer (scored onx3), Murray-Jaros

A few observations here: scoring two goals did not move Gagne up to the top PP unit (apparently there was no sentiment to put the hot guy in a position to stay hot); I don’t think Perron on the point works–he’s far better working the half-boards on the wall as he’s not a threat to shoot from the point (Jaros or Gagne should be on the points for that purpose); Englund and Burgdoerfer played almost every PK minute (Murray-Jaros got one shift late in the game) and clearly it’s just not sustainable to do that; it was a rough night for McCormick and being on-ice for three PP’s against is an indicator of that.

The Goals
1. Laval PP – tipped in front
2. Laval – rebound bounces up in the air and it gets knocked in
3. Laval PP – McCormick decides to take no one and Laval walks in front of the net and scores
4. Laval PP – shot from the point goes in five-hole through a screen

Reading this you get the impression that the BSens struggled to keep the front of their net clear and that is correct.

Scoring chances (4): Rodewald, Reinhart, Gagne (pp), Paul (pp)

This pathetic amount of scoring chances ties them for the worst of the season (they pulled the same trick in their 5-1 loss to Toronto at the end of December). The sad thing is the only thing Kleinendorst did to drum up offence was a little more McCormick and O’Brien–the needle he’s been plunging into his arm all season that has the team at 18-22-3–maybe mix it up a little?

Notable Plays
Jaros was hurt by blocking a shot (first)–had to be helped to the training room, but actually did return for very limited action; DiDomenico missed an empty net; Murray took a dumb interference penalty (threw a body check at a guy without the puck) which turned into a goal against; Rodewald steamrolled a guy and had to fight (which did not go well for him); Blunden missed the net on a 2-on-1; great pass by Perron is wasted on Randell; O’Brien with a hilarious pass from the Laval corner that misses the entire team; Blunden lost his mind after Murray was clipped (he wasn’t hurt) and got tossed from the game leading to the first 5-on-3 against–this was followed by O’Brien throwing a bodycheck on Laval’s goaltender for another 5-on-3 against–veteran leadership it was not.

This was an ugly game with very few positives. Werek and Gagne remain marooned on the fourth line, while Kelly (who will be gone soon) is playing too much (no goals in fifteen games). Kleinendorst (like the org) is too much in love with McCormick, who struggled tonight–he’s a passionate guy, but he has skill limitations and should be used accordingly.

After posting an article on the powerplay (which I’ll update eventually) I owe one on the PK–I’m going to try to get it out this week. Otherwise let’s hope both Lajoie and Harpur get healthy and that Kelly’s departure means we can get forward lines that are a little less ridiculous. I know fans in Ottawa are excited to see guys like Filip Chlapik and Colin White play in the NHL, but I’d much rather see them get more minutes in Belleville where they can develop–Boucher’s fourth line doesn’t do anyone any good.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 21, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The BSens are coming off three straight wins for the first time this season (their last two-game streak was in November), winning in front of a rejuvenated Danny Taylor. Starting with the game against the Crunch, let’s dig into the last two games, starting with the basics (boxscore):
Shots: 25-19
PP: 0-4
PK: 2-3
Goaltender: Taylor’s second straight start and second straight win, although he didn’t have to do much in this game (six key saves; this is only the second time this season the BSens have held a team to less than 20 shots, the other time being their 5-2 win over Hershey back in October); Marcus Hogberg was the backup, while Chris Driedger was scratched and Andrew Hammond remains in Colorado.

The Roster
The only change was the insertion of Macoy Erkamps due to the injury to Ben Harpur.

The Lines
McCormick-Kelly-Blunden
Paul-O’Brien-Rodewald
Flanagan-Chlapik-DiDomenico
Perron-White-Gagne
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Burgdoerfer
Lajoie-Erkamps

The nonsensical first line looks like a joke, but Kleinendorst largely stuck to this arrangement (until Chlapik was recalled to Ottawa mid-game), although all lines were rotated pretty evenly.

Special Teams
Powerplay
DiDomenico-Paul-White/Murray-Chlapik
DiDomenico-Paul-White/Lajoie-Chlapik
DiDomenico-Paul-O’Brien/Murray-White
Gagne-Perron-Blunden/Lajoie-Jaros
Gagne-Perron-Blunden/Murray-Jaros
OT
O’Brien-Rodewald/Burgdoerfer
Paul-White/Englund
McCormick-O’Brien/Burgdoerfer (scored)
Penalty Kill
Kelly-Blunden (scored on), O’Brien-Flanagan, McCormick-O’Brien, White-Flanagan
Englund-Burgdoerfer (scored on)

Murray struggled a bit on the powerplay (enough to briefly be removed from the first unit); the team really did just use one defense combination on the PK.

The Goals
1. Syracuse PP – one-timer from the board sneaks through Taylor
2. O’Brien goes five-hole on a breakaway
3. McCormick keeps and shoots on a 2-on-1

Scoring chances (10): O’Brien (x2), McCormick (x2), DiDomenico (x2, pp), Murray (pp), Gagne, Paul, Blunden

Notable Plays
Jaros with a great cross-ice pass through traffic–winds up as a Blunden one-timer, but he misses the net (first); two chances on the PP are via Chlapik passes (first); Laj hits the crossbar (second); Paul with nice moves, but no shot (third)

Belleville 4, Laval 1

This was kind of a funny game in that, through most of it, the BSens were badly outplayed, but goaltending (both good and bad) determined the outcome. The basics (boxscore):
Shots: 23-37
PP: 0-3
PK: 4-4
Goaltender: Taylor got the start again and was good (six key saves); Hogberg again backed up, with Driedger scratched and Hammond in Colorado.

The Roster
Both Chlapik and Colin White were on recall, so Werek and Reinhart drew back into the lineup.

The Lines
Paul-O’Brien-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-Blunden
McCormick-Reinhart-DiDomenico
Werek-Flanagan-Gagne
Lajoie-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Erkamps

There are some strange combinations here and not surprisingly the “fourth” line scored three of the teams four goals.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-Reinhart-DiDomenico/Murray-Perron
Gagne-O’Brien-Blunden/Lajoie-Jaros
Penalty Kill
Kelly-Blunden, McCormick-O’Brien, Perron-Flanagan
Englund-Burgdoerfer, Lajoie-Jaros

I’m not a fan of Reinhart on the PP (his performance on it hasn’t been good) and I’d much rather have Jaros on the first PP, but the coaches have struggled to figure out the PP all season, so expectations for usage have to be kept in check. It was interesting seeing Lajoie play on the PK–normally that’s Murray’s spot (or Erkamps), so I wonder if there’s pressure from above to play him more.

The Goals
1. Gagne’s slapper goes through Werek’s screen
2. Murray floats one through a crowd (or really, over)
3. Blunden scores off a nice pass from O’Brien into the slot
4. Gagne scores a beauty top shelf
5. Laval – right after a PP they bang in a rebound

Scoring chances (11): Gagne (x3, pp), Murray (x2), Werek (x2, ppx2), Blunden, Burgdoerfer, Jaros, Rodewald

Notable Plays
Three BSens converge to hit one player leaving another open for a good opportunity against (first); Werek misses an empty net (first); Werek gets run over (first) and leaves the ice with difficulty (stays in the game); Laval hits the post (second); Kelly gets crushed (second; slow to get up; stays in the game); Lajoie is knocked head-first into the boards and stays down for a long time (third); Rodewald and Perron miss the empty net (third)

One thing of note about Chris Kelly here: according to the AHL’s PTO rules at team can only sign a player to two such contracts–if he was released for both the Spengler Cup and the Olympic squad (as opposed to loaned) the BSens would have to sign him to an actual (veteran) contract once the Olympics are over. I don’t think his loss would mean very much to the roster, but it’s food for thought.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 20, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The above is probably unfair to the word “mediocre”, but I’m in a glass half full mood. Typically I do these assessments on a monthly basis (like I did in November), or in 19-game increments (the quarterly mark for the season), but because my schedule was thrown into chaos by the passing of my father now seems as good a time as any to catch up and look at where the team is as well as how things have changed over the last month and a half.

The BSens are 16-21-3, which puts them 28th in the league. This is actually a slightly better winning percentage than how they finished last season (0.43 vs 0.39), but not a point of pride and certainly not what the organisation expected when they spent money on questionable talent in the off-season. As the inaugural season in Belleville the org wanted a winning, or at least competitive, team, and they just haven’t delivered.

Speaking of that winning percentage, it has dropped from where it stood after two months of the season (10-11-1), having gone a miserable 6-10-2 since. As much as coach Kurt Kleinendorst likes to make excuses for his team (injuries and call-ups), they’ve actually lost less man-games over this period compared to the start of the season (91 due to injury and 58 on call-ups in the first two months, versus 58 and 57 since).

On special teams there have been tiny improvements on the powerplay–it remains 27th in the league, but has gone up to 13.6% from 12.5% in November (they are 10-69, or 14.5%, of late). Officially the PK has also gone up a little to 29th (to 76.6% from 75.9% in November), but my numbers have them 57-77 (74%) over this period–how this causes an increase I don’t know, but it does match the team’s overall numbers (I have them at 137-178 on the season, while the AHL has them at 134-175–we both have 41 goals against and the same overall percentages).

Other team numbers: the BSens continued to be consistently outshot (4-17-1 in games prior to this segment, 4-13-1 in it)–over the latter period they gave up 109 more shots than they took (6.05 per game) versus 127 previously (5.77 per game), with the team averaging 25.77 shots per game (versus 28.36 to start the season). As for goals per game, the team scored an anemic 39 (2.16), a huge drop from 2.77 in November (and 3.00 in October). The team has given up 76 goals (4.22) versus 77 previously (3.5).

Individual Performance (December-January)
[Arranged by points-per-game, minus empty-net points which are noted in their totals, with their relative performance increasing/decreasing noted by colour–green is increasing, red is decreasing; players with 6 games or fewer are in italics]
White 0.62 16-5-5-10 (+0.16)
Jaros 0.53 13-1-6-7 (+0.2)
Harpur 0.5 6-1-3-4 (EN) (even)
Werek 0.5 12-3-3-6 (-0.13)
DiDomenico 0.5 16-2-6-8 (-0.5)
McCormick 0.5 18-2-7-9 (+0.05)
Chlapik 0.44 9-3-1-4 (-0.13)
Murray 0.44 18-2-6-8 (+0.04)
Blunden 0.4 15-4-3-7 (EN) (+0.15)
Ciampini 0.4 5-1-1-2 (ECHL 6-1-5-6) (+0.03)
O’Brien 0.38 18-2-5-7 (-0.22)
Gagne 0.31 16-3-2-5 (-0.14)
Paul 0.3 10-2-1-3 (-0.02)
Perron 0.27 18-2-3-5 (-0.18)
Flanagan 0.25 4-0-1-1 (n/a)
Reinhart 0.25 16-2-2-4 (-0.13)
Englund 0.17 17-0-3-3 (+0.04)
Rodewald 0.16 18-1-2-3 (-0.75)
Burgdoerfer 0.16 18-1-2-3 (-0.11)
Randell 0.16 12-0-2-2 (+0.16)
Kelly 0.11 9-0-2-2 (EN) (n/a)
Lajoie 0.06 15-0-1-1 (-0.32)
Erkamps 13-0-0-0 (-0.09)
Sieloff 6-0-0-0 (-0.13)
Dunn 5-0-0-0 (ECHL 6-2-0-2) (-0.33)
Doornbosch 1-0-0-0 (n/a)
Melancon 2-0-0-0 (n/a)
Donaghey (ECHL 13-0-0-0) (n/a)

Many of these players suffered through long scoring slumps and some of the positive/negative comparisons are related to small sample size or slight changes. The biggest changes come from Rodewald, DiDomenico, Lajoie, and O’Brien (on the negative side) and Jaros and White on the positive. For context, here are the season-to-date totals (minimum 10 games played, prospects in blue, veterans in purple):

DiDomenico 0.6 20-5-8-13 6 PPP (empty-net)
Werek 0.58 31-9-10-19 6 PPP (empty-net)
White 0.55 29-8-8-16 5 PPP
Chabot 0.53 13-2-5-7 5 PPP
Chlapik 0.53 30-6-10-16 7 PPP
Harpur 0.5 10-2-4-6 2 PPP (empty-net)
O’Brien 0.5 38-9-10-19 3 PPP
McCormick 0.47 38-5-15-20 3 PPP (2 empty-net)
Rodewald 0.46 30-6-8-14 1 PPP
Jaros 0.42 28-2-10-12 5 PPP
Murray 0.42 33-5-9-14 5 PPP
Gagne 0.39 38-12-3-15 3 PPP
Ciampini 0.38 21-3-5-8
Perron 0.36 38-4-11-15 3 PPP (empty-net)
Blunden 0.36 19-4-4-8 1 PPP (empty-net)
Paul 0.33 24-2-6-8 2 PPP
Reinhart 0.32 37-7-6-13 2 PPP (empty-net)
Burgdoerfer 0.22 40-3-6-9 3 PPP
Lajoie 0.21 28-0-6-6 4 PPP
Dunn 0.21 14-0-3-3
Englund 0.15 39-0-6-6
Sieloff 0.1 28-1-2-3
Kelly 0.08 12-0-2-2 (empty-net)
Randell 0.06 32-1-2-3 (empty-net)
Erkamps 0.04 24-0-1-1

For any Nick Paul fans out there…yikes! I’m not sure he’ll ever be more than he is (an occasional call-up). This isn’t his rookie or sophomore season, this is year three of his ELC, and he just can’t put up the numbers.

On a more positive note, let’s look at a couple key players who have spent much of the season in Ottawa and see what impact they’ve had on the team when they’ve been in Belleville (Chabot and Harpur have never been in the lineup at the same time, incidentally):

Thomas Chabot 4-8-1, PP 8-63 (12.7%), PK 48-60 (80%), GF 34 (2.61), shots 381 (29.3)
Ben Harpur 7-3-0, PP 7-30 (23.3%), PK 23-32 (71.8%), GF 32 (3.2), shots 267 (26.7)

Don’t get too excited about data from the small sample size (the winning percentage for Harpur is an excellent illustration of that), but there are a few interesting nuggets here: Chabot adds more shots, as you’d expect, but his impact on the PK versus Harpur is interesting (he didn’t play much on the PK, but his presence meant the blueliners who did were kept in their role).

Finally, let’s take a look at goaltending. None of the men between the pipes have played especially well over this period, although they’ve all had their moments:
Marcus Hogberg 2-2-0 .882 3.75 (ECHL 3-2-0 .939 2.13)
Danny Taylor 1-3-0 .878 3.33
Andrew Hammond 2-4-1 .868 4.37
Chris Driedger 1-2-0 .859 4.50

These are all terrible save percentages, but the fact that they are all low indicates problems with team defense as much as issues with the goaltenders themselves.

I’ve criticized the coaching all season long, but I want to make it clear that better usage wouldn’t make the BSens a good team, it would just be a little better and prospects would get more opportunities–the latter is what’s most important in a year where the team has no chance of making the playoffs.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 16, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Hartford rolled into Belleville as the worst team in their own division with only marginally better numbers than the BSens. This “battle of the basement” meant a competitive and entertaining game. Before we get into the specifics, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 28-32
PP: 0-2
PK: 1-1 (five-minute major)
Goaltender: Danny Taylor was given his first start since a 3-1 loss December 20th and he put up his best performance of the season (seven key saves). Marcus Hogberg sat as the back-up while Andrew Hammond remained with Colorado and Chris Driedger was the healthy scratch. If this can drum up some interest in Taylor, whose veteran presence serves no purpose on a bottom-tier AHL roster, perhaps the Sens can move him so the prospects can play out the string and develop (neither Hammond or Taylor will be with the BSens next season, so they might as well decide what they want to do going forward–if you’re going to let Driedger go it’s far better to establish some value and trade him).

The Roster
Ethan Werek and Max Reinhart were out of the lineup from the blowout loss to Wilkes-Barre (I didn’t catch if they were scratched or hurt–with the latter at least I’m guessing hurt), creating space for Gabriel Gagne and Kyle Flanagan to slot back in.

The Lines
Paul-O’Brien-Rodewald
McCormick-Kelly-Blunden
Perron-White-Gagne
Flanagan-Chlapik-DiDomenico
Harpur-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Murray

Kleinendorst took his veteran needle and stuck it deep in his vein for this one–it panned out and going by the usual confirmation bias that plagues the Sens’ org I think we’ll see this again next game. Anyone who thinks this result justifies the instinct needs to look at the BSens record to understand how often it has failed in general.

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Paul-DiDomenico/Harpur-Chlapik
Gagne-Perron-Blunden/Murray-Jaros
Penalty Kill
Kelly-Blunden, McCormick-O’Brien, Perron-Flanagan
Harpur-Burgdoerfer, Englund-Jaros

McCormick back on the powerplay is simply a symptom of the veteran heroin Kleinendorst was mainlining on the night. This is the first time all season the BSens have only given up a single powerplay, albeit was a five-minute major, but this is less about the team learning discipline and the vagaries of individual referees having their own standards (Darcy Burchell riding solo on the night). I intend to put up a post about the PK this season, something put on hold with my father passing away, but I’m hopeful I can get it out sooner than later.

The Goals
1. Hartford – Kelly and Harpur get confused on coverage leaving a man wide open in the slot
2. White scores off a sweet pass from Perron on a 2-on-1
3. Hartford – a tired Perron can’t keep up with his check who walks into the slot and scores
4. O’Brien bangs in Jaros’ rebound
5. Blunden deflects in McCormick’s pass
6. Blunden into an empty net

Scoring chances (9): O’Brien (x2), White, Blunden, Harpur, Jaros, Perron (pp), Gagne, McCormick (sh)

Notable Plays
Flanagan with a terrible giveaway that leads to breakaway (first); Chlapik guilty of over passing–he’s right in the slot and passes it off (second); White gets tossed for a hit from behind (second); Chlapik skates through two guys…but not the third and losses the puck (third).

Player Notes
Chris Kelly picked up his first two points of the season, but before uncorking the champagne it has to be said that one was a secondary assist and the other a helper on an empty net goal–however long he’s with the BSens he’s going to remain a drag on the offense. As for Blunden, the goals are nice, but he’d been pointless his previous six games and it’s unlikely this is a sign of regular production from him. I’m far happier with Jaros picking up a couple of points–I’m keen on him getting top PP time and this is a step in that direction. Lajoie, who I quite like, is in the midst of a terrible twelve-game pointless streak, but I think a good part of that is usage and bad luck. Speaking of pointless streaks, Gagne’s has hit eleven games–first unit PP time would help, as well as more ice-time and better linemates. Paul also continues to struggle to produce (one point in his last seven) despite favourable usage.

I haven’t talked about the guys in the ECHL in quite some time–once Hogberg was freed from Brampton and Donaghey’s season was clearly a failure I haven’t paid as much attention to it. Daniel Ciampini, who deserves to be playing with the BSens, is humming along at a point-per-game clip (6-1-5-6); Vincent Dunn is playing like Vincent Dunn (6-2-0-2); and Cody Donaghey’s struggles continue (28-2-2-4). If Ben Harpur stays in Belleville or Patrick Sieloff gets healthy I’d expect Macoy Erkamps to go down to Brampton sooner than later. It doesn’t seem like sending either Hogberg or Driedger down again is in the cards, so the ridiculous four-goalie situation will remain until someone is moved.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 16, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment