Last week the BSens went into Wilkes-Barre and got crushed 6-0 (my discussion of that game is here), so with a much improved roster what did we get? Another lopsided loss, albeit the score is a little unfair to the team. Still, it’s a wake-up call for anyone who thought their win against the Amerks was a sign that things were changing for the team. Before the observations, the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 21-32
PP: 1-3
PK: 3-4 (one of these was the last eight seconds of the third period)
Goaltender: Marcus Hogberg got the start, but was pulled after three goals (he made two key saves)–Danny Taylor came in as relief (four key saves; it’s the first time he’s played since a December 20th loss to Rochester). Both goalies let in weak goals, but I wouldn’t blame either for the loss per se. Chris Driedger was scratched and Andrew Hammond (coming off a win over Rochester) was on recall with Colorado.

The Goals
1. Wilkes-Barre – Hogberg beat short-side on a rush (not a great goal)
2. White bangs in McCormick’s cross-crease pass
3. Wilkes-Barre – Hogberg beat top-shelf on a clear shot (might have gone off Lajoie’s stick, but even so the shot was a long way out)
4. Wilkes-Barre – Hogberg beat high far side from the slot (this was a A+ scoring opportunity, so no fault here)
5. PP White one-times a nice feed from Chlapik
6. Wilkes-Barre – DiDomenico just doesn’t bother taking the man who beats Taylor swinging from one side of the rink to the other
7. Wilkes-Barre PP – awful goal from the the goal line (Taylor not against his post)
8. Wilkes-Barre – empty net goal

Scoring chances (9): White (x2, pp), Rodewald (x2), Chlapik (x2), Blunden, DiDomenico, McCormick

The Roster
Gagne (!) and Flanagan were out of the lineup, replaced by Chlapik and White; Erkamps was out in favour of Harpur. Sexton remains out with injury (he hasn’t played since November 4th), as is Sieloff (last played December 30th); Chabot remains in the NHL (presumably permanently); Ciampini, Dunn, and Donaghey are in the ECHL, while Randell thankfully remains a healthy scratch.

The Lines
Paul-Reinhart-DiDomenico
McCormick-O’Brien-White
Werek-Chlapik-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-Blunden
Harpur-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Murray

As nice as it was for Reinhart to score in his last game, he shouldn’t be in the top-six; nor should McCormick or O’Brien (who, thanks to White, both broke pointless streaks–four and five games respectively); why Werek or Chlapik were on the third line is beyond me as both were excellent. The defense could be better, but the pairings aren’t terrible.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-Chlapik-White/Harpur-DiDomenico (scored)
Paul-Reinhart-Blunden/Murray-Jaros
Penalty Kill
O’Brien-White, Kelly-Blunden (scored on), Perron-White, Perron-O’Brien, McCormick-O’Brien
Harpur-Burgdoerfer (scored on), Englund-Jaros

I’m not a fan of the second unit–Blunden’s footspeed issues should keep him off all special teams, while Reinhart’s production on the PP has been terrible (eg). With Gagne off the roster there aren’t a lot of other options, but they exist.

Notable Plays
White with a great blueline save on the PP (first); Perron took a crosscheck to the back of the head (first); Harpur threw a huge hit in the offensive zone (second); DiDomenico made a blind pass to the wrong team which resulted in him taking a penalty (third); Murray took a dumb neutral zone penalty that wound up as a goal against (third).

Players Notes
Hogberg: he’s good enough that he shouldn’t be giving up goals on clean shots, but the plus side is the talent is there–it’s about technique and consistency (a guy this big should not be getting beat high this often)
DiDomenico: his worst game of the season–a lot of mistakes, particularly in the third period with a poor defensive effort
Chlapik: wish he played more as he does so many things well
White: as a top-prospect he’s been underwhelming in his rookie season (he broke a five-game pointless streak tonight), but some of that is related to how he’s been used–tonight he showed what he can do if he’s properly set-up
Kelly: before we sing “Oh Canada” let’s bow our heads over his eleven game pointless streak
Paul: for a guy with good hands it’s amazing how little he accomplishes with his skills
Rodewald: nice player, but I have to wonder if the Sens are already regretting giving him that ELC–just like last season, after an early hot streak he has gone ice cold (17-1-2-3)–regressing to the mean
Blunden: I mentioned his skating and it’s no coincidence that despite a lot of ice time he’s pointless in his last six games
Perron: his fourth game without a point, but I’m not sure what he’s supposed to do playing on the fourth line with spot duty on the PK (and currently off the PP)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 13, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Here we are with a much more relaxed and normal recap. Other than convincing my buddy that “Homer the Yellow” wasn’t a great name for his D&D character, there are no distractions.

The BSens played an entertaining game against a talented Rochester American squad last night. The Amerks took the game pretty lightly as evidenced by them dressing former BSen bust Conor Allen (he’d only played two games in December and this was his first in January)–for those who don’t know Allen was a mid-season acquisition in the 2015-16 season that didn’t pan out (added and then discarded). With that said, let’s delve into the basics (boxscore):
Shots: 35-23
PP: 1-4
PK: 2-2
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond was between the pipes and miraculously didn’t need to be that good for the team to win (five key saves); Marcus Hogberg backed up, while both Chris Driedger and Danny Taylor were scratched.

It’s worth pointing out this is the second largest margin of outshooting a team this season (the largest was also against Rochester) and only the fifth time this year they’ve both scored on the powerplay and not been scored on the penalty kill. While the performance wasn’t perfect, there was a lot to like about how the team played.

The Goals
1. Werek is wide open in front for Rodewald and dekes the goaltender
2. Rochester – Flanagan passes to the wrong team and the Amerks score on the 2-on-1
3. Rochester – deflection in front
4. Reinhart bangs in Jaros’ rebound
5. PP Murray walks in and scores shelf with a wrister

Scoring chances (15): Rodewald (x3), Werek (x2), Reinhart (x2), Perron (x2, sh), DiDomenico (x2), Murray (pp), Englund, Burgdoerfer, Lajoie

The Roster
The main change was the addition of Chris Kelly on a PTO (right before he was named to Team Canada), the deletion of Filip Chlapik on recall, and Kyle Flanagan slotting in for the useless Tyler Randell.

The Lines
Paul-Reinhart-DiDomenico
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Werek-Flanagan-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-Blunden
Lajoie-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Erkamps

How Reinhart’s 7-1-0-1 performance warranted centering the first line I don’t know, but he did score, so that’s something. The second line…I’m glad Gagne played more, but I don’t like who he plays with. I also don’t like Perron on the fourth line, who was good again tonight, but the talent at forward tonight was reasonable enough that he wasn’t completely wasted.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-Reinhart-DiDomenico/Paul-Murray
Gagne-Perron-Blunden/Lajoie-Jaros
Werek-Reinhart-DiDomenico/Jaros
Werek-Reinhart-DiDomenico/Murray (scored)
Penalty Kill
Forwards: Kelly-Blunden, McCormick-O’Brien, Perron-Flanagan, Kelly-Flanagan
Defense: Englund-Jaros, Englund-Lajoie, Murray-Jaros, Englund-Burgdoerfer

The latter PP combinations were only for OT, with Jaros having jumped off for a change when the winning goal was scored. Blunden is far too slow to be on either special team, but he is a step up from Randell.

Notable Plays
Reinhart passes to the wrong team (first); Blunden blows a 3-on-2 by throwing a bad pass through everyone (first); McCormick takes a puck to the face (first); Perron with a fantastic backhand pass (first); McCormick hits the post (second); Paul passes to the wrong team in front of his own net (third); Jaros with a great rush (Gagne’s shot is over the net; third).

Players Notes
Lajoie: I’ve been happy to see him play more–great hands, although both his foot speed and defensive play need work–had a fantastic scoring opportunity in the game, but is still looking for his first goal
Murray: it took a very long time for him to appear comfortable on the powerplay and while I still think there’s room to improve he’s finally putting up numbers; I’d rather see him on the second unit, but I’m less bothered than I was with him previously
Kelly: while he wasn’t particularly distinguished, this was his best game of the season–clearly playing in the Spengler Cup helped him a little
Perron: there have been a lot of positive signs from him of late–showing off great hands (particularly passing)–albeit he’s rarely been put in a position to capitalize on that talent
Werek: after spending five games spinning his wheels on the fourth line he was moved up to the third and his effectiveness improved at a commensurate rate
Gagne: I’d like him to play with a premiere passer, but Kleinendorst has veered away from that presumably fearing his defensive play (which isn’t that bad in my opinion)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 11, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

I’m now fully caught up on the BSens games, having watched those I missed while attending my father’s funeral. As with the last post I’ve slightly truncated my usual format to prevent the text wall from becoming overwhelming. Before I break down the games though, I’ll reiterate what I said on Twitter: the most obvious thing a coach impacts is special teams and discipline. Where are the BSens in that respect? PP 27th, PK 30th, and PIMs 30th–how does this report card get a thumbs-up from the org? Kleinendorst can blame his roster all he wants–while the BSens were never going to set the AHL on fire, they are better than this.

Belleville 1, Binghamton 6 (boxscore)

Lineup
Hogberg (eleven key saves)/Driedger (three key saves)
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden
Paul-White-Rodewald
Perron-Reinhart-DiDomenico
Werek-Flanagan-Gagne
Englund-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Jaros
Lajoie-Erkamps

I’ll reiterate the theme for most of this season: TOI and combinations don’t make a lot of sense.

Goals
1. Binghamton – shot from the slot via a nice pass through traffic
2. Binghamton – low far side from the dot on a 3-on-2
3. Binghamton PP – 4-on-2 after the shorthanded chance–keeps and scores short side
4. Binghamton PP – one-timer from the top of the circle
5. Binghamton PP – high shot through a crowd
6. PP Jaros wrister from the hashmarks
7. Binghamton PP – one-timer from the dot

How do you give up this many penalties? The other crazy thing is neither goaltender played that badly–in fact, Hogberg was mostly good (if rough around the edges). The BSens, including their coach, showed an inability to control themselves and losing control cost them four goals–four. Ridiculous.

Notable Plays
Lajoie with a nice defensive play to break up a 2-on-1 (first); Erkamps got turned into a pylon (first), but Bingo missed the net; Blunden couldn’t get a shot off on a 2-on-1 (second)–his inability to skate causes him so many problems; Englund got into another pointless fight and lost (third).

Belleville 0, Wilkes-Barre 6 (boxscore)

The feed for Wilkes-Barre is awful–like watching through a film of mud; the WB broadcaster tries way too hard to imitate his NHL counterpart.

Lineup
Driedger (seven key saves)
DiDomenico-Chlapik-Rodewald
Perron-Paul-Gagne
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden
Werek-Reinhart-Randell
Lajoie-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Erkamps

On paper there are improvements to the lineup (org pressure putting Chlapik on the first line), but why is Randell playing? It’s one of life’s great mysteries. Lajoie did not play as much as you’d hope given the lineup.

Goals
1. Wilkes-Barre – Driedger beat high from a long way out
2. Wilkes-Barre – Driedger beat high from a shot from the boards
3. Wilkes-Barre – Murray turns it over which causes a 2-on-1, where Burgdoerfer decides to chase the puck-carrier leaving the other man wide open to score
4. Wilkes-Barre PP – the puck is bounced in off Driedger from behind the goal line
5. Wilkes-Barre – shot from the point through a screen
6. Wilkes-Barre – one-on-four the Penguin walks through the forwards and beats

This wasn’t a Rembrandt from Driedger, but it wasn’t as bad as the score indicates either and even the second coming of Dominik Hasek can’t win if you don’t score goals.

Notable Plays
Lajoie with a great save along the blueline to keep up offensive pressure (first); kind of funny seeing WB’s McKegg favouring Chlapik’s usual play of circling behind the opposition goal and skating to the blueline to pass the puck off to the defenseman (first); Reinhart gets pushed into the net resulting in a large cuddle party after the whistle (third); Chlapik with a fantastic steal and pass (third).

Both of these games were ugly, with the BSens shooting themselves in the foot against Binghamton. Chlapik was recalled to Ottawa (alas) and the team re-signed Chris Kelly to a PTO because the struggle to score goals needs to be just that much more painful. The only motivation to keep the eyes on the team now is watching prospects and hoping for a change in coaching philosophy that let’s them all play.

My original intention was to do a summary and analysis of the team for December, but as we get further and further away from that I might just go through all the games since November rather than cutting if off at the 31st–stay tuned.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 10, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

As some of you know my father passed away December 30th, which, along with bowling me over emotionally, also threw a wrench into my schedule. I’m mostly caught up with Belleville’s games and this is the first of a two part effort to post the notes that I have before they become extremely dated. I was on a music nostalgia kick before the death of my father and Pearl Jam’s “Better Man” seems appropriate to Belleville’s coach and GM–you just can’t find a better man (apparently). With that said it’s time to hop into the time machine and turn the dial back–we’re going chronologically through these since my last game post (I’ve truncated my usual format to avoid the text wall becoming ridiculous):

Belleville 3, Laval 4 (boxscore)

Lineup
Hammond (six key saves)
DiDomenico-O’Brien-Rodewald
Werek-White-Gagne
McCormick-Reinhart-Blunden
Perron-Randell
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Murray-Erkamps
Lajoie

This game seems a million years ago, but what the hell is Lajoie doing as the 7th defenseman, or Perron on the fourth line, or Randell dressing? That said, in the context of the Kleinendorst universe the forwards lines are a step in the right direction (which, alas, would not last).

Goals
1. Laval – Murray turns it over and Hammond is beat far side on a wrister at the dot
2. Laval PP – one-timer from a bad angle
3. Laval – Erkamps gets bowled over and White doesn’t take the check who bangs in the rebound
4. O’Brien off a nice feed from McCormick from behind the net
5. Laval PP – one-timer from the point
6. McCormick bangs in his own rebound
7. PP Rodewald bangs in Murray’s rebound

Rodewald broke a 9-game pointless streak with the late goal, but the surge was too little, too late, as lousy special teams (along with a bad goal) combined to let the team down.

Notable Plays
The first Laval PP goal was off a terrible penalty from McCormick; White nearly scored on a wrap-around (first); Hammond took a hilarious dive trying to draw a penalty (he failed; second); Reinhart was in some pain after a faceoff (third), but remained in the game.

Belleville 3, Providence 2 (OT) (boxscore)

Lineup
Hogberg (seven key saves)
DiDomenico-White-Rodewald
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden
Perron-Reinhart-Gagne
Werek-Ciampini-Randell
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Murray

Erkamps’ boondoggle on the third Laval goal seems to have banished him for this game, moving Lajoie up. The second line here is…I mean, why? They could have Perron playing with Werek and Gagne, but why try to win games when you can just hope to win them?

Goals
1. Blunden bangs in a pass into the slot by O’Brien
2. PP – Werek shoves in Jaros’ rebound
3. Providence – shot from the point through a screen
4. Providence – high shot from the point through a crowd
5. Burgdoerfer picks up a loose puck in front and puts it away

Hogberg’s only struggles in the game were long, high shots, as he tended to make himself small and go into the butterfly. More incidentally, Fake Don Brennan on the Belleville broadcast is painfully bad; the BSens had a really strong first period, but were on their heels most of the rest of the game; the first PP unit looked good

Notable Plays
Randell missed the net from the slot (first); Jaros hit the post (first); Murray made a bizarre defensive place that forced Jaros to do some fancy work of his own to make up for it (first); Gagne made a great pass through a defender (nothing came of it, alas; first); Sieloff blocked a shot with his head and was taken off the ice and would miss the all the games I’ve seen since (third); Werek missed the net from the slot (third)

Belleville 1, Toronto 5 (boxscore)

I saw this game after the Binghamton game that follows because AHL Live took almost five days to respond to repeated requests for the video to be posted.

Lineup
Hammond (six key saves)
DiDomenico-White-Rodewald
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden
Perron-Paul-Gagne
Werek-Reinhart-Randell
Murray-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Erkamps

The silly second line remained as did the Curse of Randell. Despite Murray’s listing in the top pair he did not get the minutes associated with that (Englund and Jaros played more).

Goals
1. Toronto PP – Randell loses his position and a cross crease pass provides an open net
2. Toronto SH – Jaros briefly stops skating on the backcheck and his man bangs in a nice pass out front
3. Toronto SH – Jaros passes to a player going off the ice, leaving a Marlie wide open to walk in and beat Hammond five-hole
4. McCormick steals the puck and passes to a wide open DiDomenico who has an empty net
5. Toronto – Hammond beat high far side
6. Toronto – O’Brien gets puck watching leaving his man wide open to bang in a rebound

This was a straightforward spanking by the talented Marlies, who ate up the team on special teams (no coincidence the area of the game most influenced by coaching–a problem that goes back to the Luke Richardson era).

Notable Plays
DiDomenico misses the net all alone in front of the net (first); Jaros made a great aerial pass to White (to no result; first); Rodewald fell awkwardly and left the game for awhile (second).

Belleville 3, Binghamton 2 (SO) (boxscore)

Lineup
Hogberg (seven key saves)
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden
Paul-White-Rodewald
Perron-Reinhart-DiDomenico
Werek-Flanagan-Gagne
Murray-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Erkamps

The first line…what can you say really? Werek and Gagne on the fourth makes no sense either, but at least mercifully Randell is gone. Erkamps, incidentally, didn’t play a shift in the third.

Goals
1. Binghamton – top shelf off a clean face-off win
2. Paul bangs in a loose puck in front (off a play begun by him stealing the puck)
3. Binghamton – floats through a crowd (possibly deflecting off a BSen D)
4. Reinhart bangs in a fantastic pass from Perron
Gagne scored the only goal in the shootout

Notable Plays
Weird sequence where too many men penalty called on Binghamton that’s eventually rescinded (second); O’Brien can’t get a shot on a 2-on-1 (second); Burgdoerfer was hurt in a collision, but stayed in the game (third).

Overall Thoughts
Hardly a perfect sequence of games, but the BSens picked up 5 of 8 points, which is decent given the circumstances. It was great for Hogberg to win both his first two starts this season, while Hammond has become human in his AHL starts. The team struggles to score and while some of that is related to talent, some of it is also coaching decisions.

Clearly I have more games to catch up on (horrible ones from what I hear), but I shall endeavour to get through them as soon as I can. For those who liked the special teams stuff I usually post, I did track it, only removing it here to avoid grinding down the process and over inflating what is already a lengthy post.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

January 9, 2018
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

BSens played kitty-bar-the-door against the Marlies and with strong play by Andrew Hammond stole a win out of Toronto (their first 60-minute win since November 22nd). The game itself was not particularly entertaining, although listening to Bill Berg drone on over the play-by-play caller was pretty amusing (only the Toronto feed was up on AHL Live this morning). Before I get into specific observations, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 15-33
PP: 1-2
PK: 0-1
Goaltenders: Hammond got the start and was excellent in the win (eight key saves); Driedger sat as the back-up while both Danny Taylor and Marcus Hogberg were scratches.

The Opposition
The Marlies came into the game at 22-8, albeit having just ended a 3-game losing streak. While they allowed the BSens to play a very passive, defense-first game, they had more than enough opportunities to win the game.

The Goals
1. Toronto PP – one-timer from the point
2. PP Werek tips White’s shot in from the point
3. Perron in the slot (off a nice pass from Randell)

Scoring chances (6): White (x2), Werek (pp), Perron, Blunden, Rodewald (pp)

The Roster
Ottawa returned a number of players to Binghamton and Patrick Sieloff returned from injury, meaning a significant shuffle. I’m not sure if Lajoie was scratched or injured, but he was taken out of the lineup for Sieloff, while Harpur’s arrival meant both ECHL PTO’s (Melancon and Doornbosch) sat with the team using just six defensemen. DiDomenico’s return didn’t result in a change since the team dropped from seven to six D.

The Lines
DiDomencio-O’Brien-Rodewald
McCormick-Reinhart-Blunden
Werek-White-Gagne
Perron-Ciampini-Randell
Sieloff-Harpur
Englund-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps

Other than the third line this is not a great set of forward lines and that was evident in how little they accomplished offensively.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-DiDomenico-Rodewald/Harpur-White (scored)
McCormick-O’Brien-Blunden/Gagne-Murray
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien (scored on)
Sieloff-Harpur (scored on)

The officials let the BSens get away with a ton of interference, but they couldn’t handle even one odd-man situation. The first PP unit was solid, but the second…just ugly.

Notable Plays
Perron with a nice set of moves to get a shot on goal (first); Rodewald misses the net from the slot (first); McCormick can’t make the pass to Blunden on a 2-on-1 (first); DiDomenico hits the crossbar (first); Perron walks through three players which turns into a Murray shot over the net (second); Blunden with a terrible pass on a 2-on-0 results in no shot (second); McCormick hits the post on the empty-net.

Player Notes
Randell: a stopped watch is right twice a day and Tyler Randell apparently is productive once every 28 games–it was a great play and something to be celebrated–albeit he also bungled numerous other plays in the game and still belongs in the pressbox
White: a good game for him–solid linemates helped–he was strong both offensively and defensively
Perron: one of his best games of the season, albeit a lot of his good work was stymied by poor decisions from teammates

Not a lot to go through in a game like this where the BSens were fervently trying not to lose and the Marlies were pass-happy. The team benefited tremendously from officials ignoring interference and along with that, strong goaltending won them this game.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 27, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The place to start here is the basic strategy employed by the BSens: the umbrella. The BSens’ strategy with that deployment involves moving the puck to the top of the umbrella, distributing left or right for a shot, and then trying to take advantage of the rebound or loose puck. The down low stuff play is almost never utilized and the tendency has been trying to get a shot from the left side by a right-handed shooter (although both Chabot and Harpur, as lefties, tend to shoot from the middle of the umbrella into the crowd).

How is the coaching staff deploying the team’s roster in this situation versus their production? I crunched numbers that I’ve tracked throughout the season and the easiest way to start with is with literal deployment: who is playing the most with the man advantage, keeping in mind that smaller sample sizes tend to skew results (positive or negative):

Powerplay Frequency/Shifts per game (min 5 shifts on the season)
Forwards
DiDomenico 5.0 (10/50) (21/0/29)
White 4.09 (21/86) (0/50/36)
Rodewald 4.0 (20/80) (26/22/32)
Paul 3.88 (17/66) (30/18/18)
Chlapik 3.66 (27/99) (36/40/23)
Sexton 3.5 (8/28) (15/13/0)
McCormick 3.35 (28/94) (25/37/32)
O’Brien 2.28 (28/64) (5/28/31)
Reinhart 2.28 (28/64) (17/31/16)
Gagne 2.27 (29/66) (6/39/21)
Perron 2.17 (28/61) (10/32/19)
Blunden 2.0 (9/18) (13/0/5)
Werek 1.63 (22/36) (19/12/5)
Randell 0.48 (27/13) (2/0/11)

Defense
Chabot 5.15 (13/67) (31/36/0)
Jaros 3.89 (19/74) (36/19/19)
Murray 3.47 (23/80) (12/30/38)
Lajoie 3.47 (19/66) (34/12/20)
Harpur 2.42 (7/17) (4/4/9)
Burgdoerfer 1.76 (30/53) (28/24/1)

The above does not differentiate between first and second unit play (see below), which can mean quite large variances in actual TOI with the advantage. From the above I think it’s worth noting that if you remove October from O’Brien and Gagne’s averages they remain in the same relative position, but far closer to the other top forwards (3.1 and 3.0 respectively). Also significantly impacted by varying usage are Lajoie (who drops to 3.2 after October–not a huge change, but some) and Burgdoerfer (2.36 prior to December).

If the above represents preference (debatable, but let’s follow the thread), based on frequency and a healthy roster we’d see DiDomenico-White-Rodewald with Chabot-Jaros on the first unit and Paul-Chlapik-Sexton with Lajoie-Murray on the second. While this is not ideal (see below), it does remove the anchors that are McCormick and Reinhart, albeit Rodewald’s and Murray’s mindnumbing inability to produce on the PP (see below) are cause for concern.

Unit Use (first/second unit/pairing)
Forwards
DiDomenico 100% (50/0)
Sexton 100% (28/0)
White 98.8% (85/1 – 49/1 36/0)
O’Brien 75% (48/16 – 0/5 25/3 23/8)
Paul 59.1% (39/27 – 15/15 12/6 12/6)
McCormick 58.5% (55/39 – 12/13 37/0 6/26)
Reinhart 53.1% (34/30 – 3/14 21/10 10/6)
Perron 50.8% (31/30 – 7/3 8/24 16/3)
Werek 50% (18/18 – 13/6 0/12 5/0)
Rodewald 48.7% (39/41 – 15/11 6/16 18/14)
Chlapik 42.4% (42/57 – 24/12 8/32 10/13)
Blunden 27.7% (5/13 – 0/13 5/0)
Gagne 10.6% (7/59 – 0/6 7/32 0/21)
Randell 0.00% (0/13 – 0/2 0/0 0/11)

Chabot 100% (67/0)
Harpur 58.8% (10/7 – 4/0 4/0 2/7)
Jaros 39.1% (29/45 – 26/12 6/13 0/19)
Murray 31.2% (25/55 – 9/3 0/30 16/22)
Burgdoerfer 28.3% (15/38 – 12/16 3/21 0/1)
Lajoie 16.6% (11/55 – 0/34 3/9 8/12)

Something that’s immediately apparent is that defensemen are not used 100% of the time as Colin White, Chris DiDomenico, Jim O’Brien, Filip Chlapik, Franics Perron, and Max McCormick have all spent varying time on the point (White the most). It’s amazing that Gagne has almost exclusively been stuck on the second unit and that Chlapik’s first line appearances have been (relative to production) so limited. Keep these numbers in mind as we get to production below. As for the lines these preferences suggest, it would yield DiDomencio-White-Sexton with Chabot-Harpur as the first unit, with McCormick-Paul-O’Brien with Murray-Jaros as the second.

Powerplay on-ice for Goals
Forwards
Sexton 0.14 4/28 (3/1/0)
O’Brien 0.093 6/64 (1/3/2)
Werek 0.083 3/36 (2/0/1)
White 0.081 7/86 (0/3/4)
DiDomenico 0.08 (4/50) (2/0/2)
Rodewald 0.075 6/80 (2/2/2)
Paul 0.075 5/66 (3/1/1)
Chlapik 0.07 7/99 (3/3/1)
Perron 0.065 4/61 (1/1/2)
Blunden 0.055 1/18 (0/0/1)
Reinhart 0.046 3/64 (1/1/1)
Gagne 0.045 3/66 (0/2/1)
McCormick 0.042 4/94 (0/3/1)
Randell 0.00 0/13 (0/0/0)

Defense
Burgdoerfer 0.094 5/53 (3/2/0)
Lajoie 0.075 5/66 (3/2/0)
Chabot 0.074 5/67 (3/2/0)
Murray 0.062 5/80 (0/2/3)
Harpur 0.058 1/17 (0/0/1)
Jaros 0.054 4/74 (3/0/1)

How much of an indicator is being on-ice for goals? Given how meaningless the plus/minus stat is you want to take it with a grain of salt. Sexton, Werek, Harpur, and Blunden are benefiting somewhat from their limited sample size.

If we create a lineup based on these numbers we’d wind up with slightly different lines compared to raw usage: Werek-O’Brien-Sexton with Lajoie-Burgdoerfer as the first, and DiDomenico-White-Rodewald with Chabot-Murray as the second. There are positive elements here as well, but as we’ll see below, they present problems as well.

Powerplay Points Per Shift
Forwards
DiDomenico 0.08 (4/50)
Chlapik 0.06 (6/99)
Werek 0.055 (2/36)
Blunden 0.055 (1/18)
Perron 0.049 (3/61)
O’Brien 0.046 (3/64)
Gagne 0.045 (3/66)
White 0.034 (3/86)
McCormick 0.032 (3/94)
Reinhart 0.031 (2/64)
Paul 0.03 (2/66)
Rodewald 0.00 (0/80)
Sexton 0.00 (0/28)
Randell 0.00 (0/13)

Defense
Chabot 0.074 (5/67)
Lajoie 0.06 (4/66)
Burgdoerfer 0.056 (3/53)
Jaros 0.04 (3/74)
Murray 0.012 (1/80)
Harpur 0.00 (0/17)

The most meaningful element of all, particularly for a team that struggles to score–actual production (and we can ignore Blunden’s position due to the small sample size). There are some extraordinary numbers here, with Rodewald and Murray standing out in ineptitude (and with far too many reps for this not to indicate some underlying problems). McCormick’s numbers overall are appalling on the powerplay–despite playing the second most shifts on the team (behind Chlapik) his on-ice and his production totals are absolute garbage (this also applies to Reinhart, who hasn’t played quite as much).

Our lines from this set of data change quite a bit: Werek-Chlapik-DiDomenico with Chabot-Lajoie, and Gagne-Perron-O’Brien with Burgdoerfer-Jaros. The only change I’d make to this is inserting White in the second unit (for O’Brien) and remove Burgdoerfer (for Harpur if he’s available, or O’Brien on the point), but this is far closer to what I would do with the man advantage.

Conclusions/Moving Forward
I think it’s worthwhile comparing usage to production directly before wrapping this up–rather than list the raw numbers I’ll stick to how they rank above and we’ll ignore players with less than 10 games (so excising Sexton, Blunden, Randell, and Harpur from consideration):
Forwards (usage/production)
DiDomenico 1st/1st
White 2nd/7th
Rodewald 3rd/no points
Paul 4th/11th
Chlapik 5th/2nd
McCormick 6th/9th
O’Brien 7th/6th
Reinhart 8th/10th
Gagne 9th/6th
Perron 10th/5th
Werek 11th/3rd

Defense
Chabot 1st/1st
Jaros 2nd/4th
Murray t-3rd/5th
Lajoie t-3rd/2nd
Burgdoerfer 5th/3rd

The two top prospects (White and Chabot) play a ton, as does the DiDomenico, but after that we get into coaching decisions that are at best a mixed bag. You look at the bottom-three set of forwards or where Lajoie sits and you can’t help but shake your head. As much as the org and coaching staff want to blame their problems on injuries or call-ups, clearly there are mistakes being made in how talent is being deployed.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 26, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

What happens when an undermanned BSens roster runs into a talented team? A shellacking. This game wasn’t close and the score could have been much worse (entertaining to watch the Crunch play, admittedly). Before I get into specific observations, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 29-37
PP: 1-4 (one brief)
PK: 4-6 (including a 4-on-3)
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond got the start after a couple of games off and had no support in getting lit up for six goals before the reluctant Kleinendorst pull (he made two key saves); Driedger arrived in relief and was solid (one key save)–neither goaltender can be blamed for the blowout in my opinion. Danny Taylor was scratched amidst the triple-rotation clusterfuck (Marcus Hogberg made 44 saves in his win in Brampton and is nearing the top-ten in save percentage in the E–if you threw out his initial three starts he’s at .936–through nine games–which would put him second overall).

The Opposition
The Crunch were 14-11-3 coming into the game, but 8-2-0 in the their last ten and simply a much more talented team than the BSens. The primary issue they presented was speed and the ability of the roster to make quick passes (the BSens were terrible at filling up passing lanes with either sticks or bodies–something related to the difference in speed).

The Goals
1. White scores from the side boards on his off-side
2. Syracuse – Terrible line change and a poor defensive play by Rodewald leads to a 3-on-1 against whose pretty passing results in a pretty goal
3. Syracuse – Murray gives up on his check who tips in a backhand
4. Syracuse – Burgdoerfer gets puck watching and his man bangs in the rebound
5. Syracuse – Randell loses his check who bangs in a nice pass from behind the goal line
6. Syracuse – tip-in
7. Syracuse – Rodewald lazy on the back check and his man scores on a nice pass on a 3-on-1 down low
8. PP Murray floats one in from the point (Blunden with yet another phantom assist)
9. Syracuse PP – Peca allowed to walk in and scores low through the defender
10. Syracuse PP – three BSens get puck-watching leaving the Crunch player wide open to score on an empty net after Driedger makes the initial save

Scoring chances (5): White, Murray (pp), Werek, Dunn, O’Brien (sh)

The Roster
Innumerable call-ups have denuded the roster, as Andreas Englund and Chris DiDomenico were added to Ottawa’s roster. Werek’s return from injury prevented any need to sign a forward to a PTO, but Jamie Doornbosch (who played some games with Binghamton last year) was signed (either in lieu of Cody Donaghey, or else he’s injured in Brampton). The BSens played essentially four ECHL defensemen on the night (Murray, Erkamps, Melancon, and Doornbosch).

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Werek-White-Rodewald
Ciampini-Reinhart-Blunden
Dunn-Perron-Randell
Murray-Burgdoerfer
Lajoie-Erkamps
Doornbosch-Melancon

The second and third lines aren’t bad, although why poor Perron is buried with non-entities on the fourth is beyond me. Burgdoerfer, now exposed without an experienced lefty to save him, struggled throughout the night. The D-shortage meant there was a lot more Lajoie–pretty rough around the edges defensively, but is worth that for all the other things he does well.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Werek-Reinhart-Blunden/Murray-White (scored)
Gagne-O’Brien-Rodewald/Lajoie-McCormick
Perron-O’Brien-Gagne/Lajoie-McCormick (once)
4-on-4
O’Brien-Rodewald/Murray-Burgdoerfer
Gagne-McCormick/Lajoie-Erkamps
Gagne-Rodewald/Burgdoerfer-Erkamps
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien, Randell-Blunden (scored on), Perron-White, McCormick-Blunden, White-Randell, White-Rodewald, McCormick-White, Randell-Rodewald, Perron-Randell (scored on)
Lajoie-Burgdoerfer, Melancon-Erkamps, Murray-Erkamps, Murray-Burgdoerfer (scored on), Lajoie-Melancon, Lajoie-Erkamps, Lajoie-Murray (scored on), Burgdoerfer

The category of “goals against when Randell kills penalties” is ever-growing, otherwise the variation on the PK is simply a product of how quickly the game grew out of reach. The goals against is really three, as one of the goals the Crunch scored was just as the penalty expired. The PP shot the puck more and while that didn’t produce many scoring chances it did get them a goal (Murray’s first since his hat-trick over a month ago–also his first PP point of the season, which took seventy-nine PP shifts to accomplish).

Notable Plays
There weren’t many in a game like this, however: White got away with boarding a player in the second; Murray had his legs taken out from under him and had to be assisted off the ice (second), but stayed in the game; McCormick got into a fight in the third and that did not go well for him; Reinhart took a dumb penalty on the PP (third), which continues a recent trend of selfish penalties from him.

Player Notes
Burgdoerfer: I mentioned above that without the protection offered by his usual partners (Sieloff, Harpur, or Englund) he struggled defensively, particularly with coverage
Doornbosch: an offensive guy in the E, why not put him on the PP?
Dunn: I think a pylon with skates would accomplish the same thing–he can’t skate and as a supposed agitator he neither agitates nor hits, so why play him?
Randell: when he started being used on the PK I thought it made little sense, but he seemed at least reasonably competent–that’s gone out the window in December as poor decisions are resulting in goals against
Perron: there must be some edict from on-high that keeps pushing him onto the PK (the org probably thinks he’s another Pageau), where he’s had no success this year; why a talented player like him is buried on the fourth-line (again) is beyond me
Rodewald: the wheels have completely fallen off for him–he hasn’t had a point in December (eight games) and you again have to wonder if the org fell in love with him due to yet another hot-streak that belies limited production

I lost track of how many odd-man rushes the BSens gave up–and let’s keep in mind this was a home game so they should be getting the best possible match-ups. For a team that emphasizes defense they showed a lot of structural problems against a team with speed–both in closing lanes up high and failing to effectively collapse down low (you might want to blame the call-ups on D, but they weren’t involved in any of the goals against). The team also continues to bump into the problem of the staff overplaying players of limited talent–once they get behind it’s that much harder to catch up. Kleinendorst doesn’t seem to know how to load up an offensive line unless obvious players like DiDomenico are on the roster (part of this is due to his over estimation of how impactful guys like O’Brien and McCormick are).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 23, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The BSens lost the most boring game of the season last night–a snoozefest where neither team seemed particularly interested. Before I delve into specific observations, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 32-24
PP: 0-5 (one very brief)
PK: 6-6 (one very brief; also a 5-on-3)
Goaltender: Danny Taylor got the start and had no trouble extending his personal losing streak to seven games (he made three key saves); Chris Driedger served as the backup, with Andrew Hammond scratched and Marcus Hogberg remaining in Brampton.

The Opposition
The Amerks were 16-6-6 coming into the game and never seemed in any danger of losing (don’t be fooled by the shots on goal–despite the difference it’s not a reflection of quality scoring chances).

The Goals
1. Rochester – tip-in
2. Rochester – Burgdoerfer gets caught puck-watching and his man bangs in a loose puck
3. Rochester – score from the side boards
4. Ciampini bangs in a nice pass from White who fakes the wrap-around (Blunden got a phantom assist on the play)

Scoring chances (7): Rodewald (x2), Ciampini, White (pp), McCormick, Blunden (sh), Reinhart (pp)

The Roster
Filip Chlapik and Ben Harpur were recalled before the game, which brought Vincent Dunn and PTO T. J. Melancon into the lineup. Chris Kelly was released from his PTO, which caused Ciampini to be recalled from Brampton. Jaros, Sieloff, Werek, Sexton, and Flanagan remain out with injuries.

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
DiDomenico-Reinhart-Rodewald
Perron-White-Blunden
Dunn-Ciampini-Randell
Englund-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps
Lajoie-Melancon

I have no idea why Reinhart was given the #2 center position, because as in the past, it didn’t work. The fourth line, outside of Ciampini, is pretty embarrassing. There’s just so much that I’d change with the forward group here. On the blueline Melancon barely played, but from the second period on Kleinendorst rotated the other five regularly.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Perron-Reinhart-White/Murray-DiDomenico
McCormick-Gagne-Rodewald/Lajoie-O’Brien
4-on-4
White-Rodewald/Englund-Burgdoerfer
Gagne-DiDomenico/Murray-Erkamps
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien, Randell-Blunden, Perron-White, White-Blunden, McCormick-Randell
Englund-Burgdoerfer, Murray-Erkamps, Lajoie-Murray, Murray-Burgdoerfer, Lajoie-Erkamps
5-on-5
McCormick-O’Brien/Burgdoerfer
Randell-Blunden/Burgdoerfer

The the first game without Kelly and the BSens didn’t give up a PP goal for the first time since he joined the team (so they gave up a PP goal in every single game Kelly played). The struggles certainly weren’t only his fault, but it is an interesting fact. The powerplay continues to struggle, although the zone entries have improved.

Notable Plays
Reinhart missed the net on a breakaway (first); Taylor with a brutal giveaway that he’s very fortunate didn’t wind up in the back of his net (first); Burgdoerfer and Blunden collided and were slow to get up (first); Gagne made a couple of excellent passes in the first, but those receiving them did nothing with them; Blunden couldn’t get a shot away on a 2-on-1 (second); McCormick double-clutched in the slot on the PP and couldn’t get a shot away (second); Englund threw a huge hit (third).

Player Notes
Lajoie: I was happy to see him back on the regular powerplay rotation, although it would make a lot more sense to have him in Murray’s spot on the first unit
Reinhart: took two selfish, dumb penalties in the game but this didn’t impact his ice time (accountability has never been the org’s strong suit with veterans)
Gagne: played well, although would have been better served on the first PP unit; nice to see him making passes, although given who he plays with he’s better off shooting
Rodewald: his best game since late November (threatening his now seven-game pointless streak)

This was not the kind of game for a lot of standout performances as the first two periods were largely event-free. For fans who like glass half-full interpretations, you can be happy the BSens kept the game scoreless for 43 minutes. Realistically, however, the team seemed to be playing for a 0-0 tie and once the goal-scoring started were incapable of doing anything about it. Another question the game raises is: when is the team going to face the fact that Danny Taylor just can’t perform? He hasn’t had a good game since October 28th and that’s one of just two good starts all season. The org would do themselves a favour by getting rid of him and clearing up the goaltending clog (but it’s not a move I’m expecting).

Today the BSens added another assistant coach (Tony Cimellaro), who was an assistant at Queen’s University. Unless Tony is going to lace up the skates I’m not sure what this is meant to accomplish (is it a precursor to removing Kleinendorst?). One of the many fears I have about what Randy Lee might do is making a former Sen like Shean Donovan the coach, and we’ll get another nightmare like Luke Richardson in the AHL.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 21, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Belleville’s re-match with the only team they’ve beaten in December did not go their way as the better team on the night won. Before I get into specific observations, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 22-27
PP: 1-5
PK: 3-4
Goaltender: Chris Driedger got his fifth start of the season and despite the goals against played pretty well (he made five key saves); this would have normally been a Danny Taylor start, but at least in the short-term he’s been pulled from the regular rotation (he served as the backup); Andrew Hammond was scratched while Marcus Hogberg made 29 saves for a 3-1 win in Brampton.

The Opposition
The Devils came in at 8-14-4 and are a very beatable team, but they controlled the play for much of the game and earned the win.

The Goals
1. Binghamton – Erkamps’ stick gets stuck in the boards and with no support a Devil is wide open in front and bangs it in
2. PP Gagne banks it in from behind the net
3. Binghamton PP – Blunden is late to his man who bangs in a rebound
4. Reinhart floats a puck through a crowd from the point which gets deflected in by Blunden
5. Binghamton – floats one it from the point (this was 20 seconds after the Reinhart goal)
6. Binghamton – Englund turnover, Chlapik collapses too low leaving his man open in front who scores on a deke (this was 18 seconds after the previous goal)
7. Binghamton SH – Harpur turnover leads to a breakaway and goal

Scoring chances (7): Gagne (x2, pp), Reinhart, Rodewald, DiDomenico, McCormick, Englund

The Roster
After getting crushed in their previous game the BSens made just one change, as Dunn was scratched and Reinhart returned from injury. Ciampini, who is a better alternative to either Randell or Kelly, remains in Brampton (both Randell and Kelly’s pointless streaks continued).

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
DiDomenico-Chlapik-Rodewald
Kelly-White-Blunden
Perron-Reinhart-Randell
Harpur-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Erkamps
Lajoie-Murray

Kelly remains an anchor on the third line while I’m not sure what Perron is supposed to accomplish on the fourth. Kleinendorst’s insistence on returning to the first line he loves so much continues to stifle offensive potential (I mentioned on Twitter that the Sens are enormously behind on goal ratio and that despite coaching decisions intended to cut down on goals against). Kleinendorst’s insistence on playing it safe, on relying on grinding veterans, simply isn’t working. I also wish we’d see a lot more Lajoie than Murray on the blueline.

Special Teams
Powerplay
Perron-Chlapik-White/Murray-DiDomenico
Perron-Chlapik-White/Harpur-DiDomenico (gave up shorthanded goal)
McCormick-Gagne-Rodewald/Harpur-O’Brien (scored)
McCormick-Gagne-Rodewald/Lajoie-Murray
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien, Kelly-Randell, Kelly-Blunden, Perron-Randell, Randell-Blunden (scored on)
Harpur-Burgdoerfer, Englund-Erkamps (scored on), Murray-Erkamps

Murray’s foibles on the PP are bad enough that even the Belleville broadcaster is complaining about it–no one, including Murray himself, has any clue what he’s doing on breakouts and it’s killing whichever unit he’s on. Lajoie should have his spot and Murray needs to be removed–I think his hat-trick back in November is messing with the coaches head about offensive ability that just isn’t there. At least over the last couple of games the talented players are being put on the first-unit–they just need to be saved from having Murray on the back end. As for the hapless PK: why use a guy who can’t skate (Blunden) and a guy who can’t play (Randell) as a duo? Makes no sense. The team is also ramming Kelly down the throats of the PK and it has been much worse since his arrival (they’ve literally given up a goal every single game since he started playing: 28-39 (71.7%), vs 68-87 (78.1%) without him).

Notable Plays
A nice set-up by White to Blunden who misses the net (first); McCormick got crushed on a shorthanded opportunity (first); O’Brien misses the net from the slot (second); a couple of great passes by Chlapik for scoring opportunities (to DiDomenico in the second and Englund in the third); Rodewald bangs in what would be Belleville’s second goal, but it’s waived off for goaltender interference (third).

Player Notes
Lajoie: did not play a lot, with just one powerplay shift; he’s such a useful player in transition and also on the point that it’s driving me bananas to see him getting 6th-D time
Murray: the powerplay snafu’s were so blatant even the broadcaster was wondering what he was doing
Burgdoerfer: had been better playing with Harpur, but his turnover tendency was back in evidence on the night (leading the team)
Harpur: not his best game with a couple of key errors, but I will say one of the big differences in his play between now and when he was a rookie is how often he shoots the puck–it’s not a big slapper ala Jaros, but putting pucks to the net helps the offense
Rodewald: isn’t the best fit with Chlapik, but I think Kleinendorst wants him with a lefty and other than Reinhart that’s the only option (since Perron and Gagne are playing the wing)–he was at his best with Paul as his center; long pointless streaks weren’t uncommon for him last season, admittedly
Perron: I’m not sure what the guy is supposed to do with fourth-line minutes; while the powerplay time is nice the utilization is asphyxiating his production
Kelly & Randell: continue to add nothing useful (the former’s terrible faceoff performance got him shifted to leftwing); both should be in the pressbox
White: like everyone else who has been saddled with Kelly basically disappeared
DiDomenico: I like him playing with Chlapik, but the duo needs a different third player (I’d love to see Gagne with them)
Chlapik: a lot of great little plays on the night (along with one big defensive snafu), albeit with no results; as I mentioned with DiDomenico above I think their line would work more effectively with a different winger

I’ve been saying for quite some time that many of the problems the team has relates to player usage. The BSens aren’t the most talented team, but there are better ways to put the lineup together and the coaching staff (and the org) struggles to follow the evidence and make changes. On the plus side they’ve shut down Taylor for the last few games and even very briefly broke up the overdose of O’Brien-McCormick, but at the first hint of trouble Kleinendorst goes back to his veterans as if they are going to get the team wins–the evidence just doesn’t support it. The AHL is a development league and the BSens shouldn’t entertain any delusions of a Calder Cup run, so play the prospects and let grinders play where grinders should–the bottom six (or not at all).

A couple of notable trends over the last nine games: the BSens have given up the first goal in seven; they’ve been outshot in seven (not a new trend as the team only has a positive differential in five games this year); they’ve given up a powerplay goal in all nine; they’ve only scored 19 goals (or 2.11 per game), far too few to win very often.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

December 18, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment