-Ottawa’s home opener against New Jersey is tonight (a team no casual fan gets excited about, something Melnyk points out in the link below) and Stephane Da Costa (who was put on waivers) will sit again in favour of Matt Kassian.  Here are the expected lineups: MacArthur-Turris-Ryan, Michalek-Spezza-Conacher, Greening-Smith-Neil, Kassian-Pageau-Condra; Methot-Karlsson, Cowen-Wiercioch, Phillips-Gryba; Anderson will start.

-The Da Costa move (presumably he is Bingo-bound) confirms my prediction that he would only remain with the Sens during their Western road trip.  No word on Zibanejad, but he is the likely candidate to be recalled unless the Sens make a trade.

-The Sens beat Phoenix 4-3 in overtime on Tuesday, putting a stopper in the rising panic in the fanbase.  Craig Anderson picked up the win and Cory Conacher notched the winner in overtime.  Ottawa gave up two early goals in the first, but showed resilience in coming back.  Here’s the boxscore.

–Paul MacLean didn’t mince words about how the team has opened the season:

We feel good about the six points, but we don’t really feel good about how we played in all those games. We found a way to get some points out of four of the games.

–Travis Yost offers a few thoughts on the Sens’ road trip as well as praises Kyle Turris.  I agree with Travis that the Greening-Smith-Neil line just doesn’t do the job and I hope MacLean moves away from it permanently.

–Scott had the scoring chances in the Anaheim game 17-32.

–Eugene Melnyk just can’t keep his mouth shut and Nichols offers us a transcription.

Well you know what, there are a lot of numbers get thrown around and you’re, we’re not really 26th. I know that Capgeek and all these guys, they all do these estimates and stuff like that, but that doesn’t really show the whole picture because the difference between being in the third quartile or the second quartile is so miniscule. The high guys… I’ve done it. Look, we’ve done it. Been there, done that. We spent to the cap three straight years and you know what, what did we get done? We spent money for nothing. We didn’t get into the playoffs one year. We got one round in another year and that’s not the way to win. You’re not going to do it. It’s a whole new ballgame. It’s all development, coaching, staying young and staying healthy. But the patching up would be, the wonderful thing that… the big commodity that we have is cap space. If we have an injury and we need to fill a void and that’s going to be the difference between going an extra round or deeper, then I’m prepared to do it.

The flaws in this are apparent, as NIchols points out:

Yes, the Senators and Melnyk have spent to the cap and yes, the team’s results during those years was awful. But doing so completely ignores the context of why it was done. Having bought the organization from bankruptcy, Melnyk tried to do be the opposite of Rod Bryden. He wanted to reward fans (Eagles concert) and make them believe that he would be willing to do whatever it took to make and keep Ottawa as a Stanley Cup contender. When the Senators made it to the Cup Finals, it was arguably with one of the worst rosters that the team had in years. Recognizing the harmful efforts that the John Muckler regime had on the farm system through poor drafting and short-sighted trades, the Sens re-signed everyone and made patchwork signings and trades because they simply had no young (and inexpensive) talent coming through the system who could compete for jobs. Signings like Kovalev were designed to sell tickets and serve as placeholders until Bryan Murray’s amateur scouting staff could work cultivate prospects. It took some time, but now we’re in a situation in which the system has yielded a number of impressive prospects and an absurd amount of depth. Ottawa’s situation now is one in which money is needed. No one is encouraging management to spend blindly.

Melnyk proceeded to suggest the organisation might use its ample cap space to soak up another team’s problem if the pot was sweetened enough, which is the kind of thing the Leafs did while rebuilding.

–Varada wants to know how much more fans would be willing to pay to go to games.  First he points out Ottawa has the lowest ticket prices in Canada (middle of the league otherwise), but he mentions an important facet of this discussion:

There’s a lot we don’t know here. For instance, does this average include corporate suites? What about ticket packages that drive down the average but increase stability for a team that needs a reliable revenue stream? Does the location of those other teams’ arenas increase walk-up purchases of pricier tickets?

I think there’s a lot to be said (as Varada points out) in what you are getting with your ticket and I don’t see Ottawa trying to add value to what they are selling.  The Sens focus purely on what’s on the ice, while Montreal and Toronto sell their tradition (and yes, I have no idea why the Leafs “tradition” is a positive selling point), the Oilers sell hope, and so on.  There’s just nothing else being added to the value of the product to justify moving those prices up.

-Elmira continues to clear the decks of its roster, releasing Olivier Croteau and Dylan Quaile.  Their season opening roster has been released and it features no surprises.  The Jackals play Wheeling tomorrow to begin their season.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 17, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Scott had the scoring chances vs San Jose 7-23.  Ouch.

-The Sens are having a hard time selling tickets to the home opener–is it the local economy, the on ice product, or an owner who tells fans he’s on a budget and can’t compete?  I haven’t seen any serious attempt to answer the question, but I assume it’s a combination of the first and third option.

–Jeremy Milks preaches patience and expects (along with every other Sens blogger) Mika Zibanejad to be recalled, but he also throws out Jim O’Brien as someone to come up.  From what I can tell Jeremy hasn’t paid any attention to what’s going on in Binghamton, but he thinks the Sens need bigger centers (because bigger is better) and that the financially strapped team would rather pay O’Brien his NHL salary in the NHL.  The Mika call-up is a no brainer, as is the Stephane Da Costa demotion, but I don’t see O’Brien returning.

-Back in January Phil Birnbaum used a mathematical approach to try to determine how much of a role luck played in determining NHL outcomes (based off Tangotiger‘s work from 2006 when he looked at all the big leagues).  Phil doesn’t explain the methodology for explaining “luck” and Tango’s is buried in his comments (you can get a better sense of what the math is all about here), but concludes it takes 73 games before luck ceases to be a factor in the NHL.  Do we see that evident in league standings?  It does offer an answer to how random lower seeded playoff teams seem to be along with the yingyang throughout the league in terms of standings amongst all but the best of the best.  Interesting food for thought.

-Not to beat a dead horse, but warning bells are ringing for Jakub Culek who is the only player on Binghamton’s roster to see no game action this season.  Barring injury I continue to assume he’ll be sent down to Elmira. [Chris Lund informs me Culek is rehabbing a shoulder injury, which both explains why he’s still on the Binghamton roster as well as why he hasn’t played; given that he’s been practicing with the team he’s presumably close to being ready to play.]

-A few updates on B-Sens from last year who lacked a team coming into the season: as mentioned yesterday Louie Caporusso and Dustin Gazley have found homes with Reading (ECHL); Jack Downing is with South Carolina (ECHL) after attending Bruins camp; ATO Nick Craven is currently with Utah (ECHL).

-Elmira continues to reduce its roster, cutting Michael Beaudry, Vincent Richer, and goaltender Nick Niedert.

-Here’s my overview of undrafted success stories in the NHL.

–ISS has released its October rankings for the 2014 draft:

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 15, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-The Sens fell 4-1 to Anaheim last night after blowing a 2-1 first period lead and losing 3-2 to San Jose the previous evening (Ducks boxscore and Mark Parisi‘s summary; Sharks boxscore and Adnan‘s summary; Travis Yost looking at both games).  Other than Robin Lehner not much went well for Ottawa, as they looked sloppy in both games and minor lineup tweaks did nothing to solve the issues.  Jean-Gabriel Pageau faced Paul MacLean’s wrath in the Anaheim game as he was benched after spotting a -2 in 3 minutes of ice time, but it’s Stephane Da Costa who is clearly does not belong on the roster.  The Frenchman has accomplished nothing in his NHL opportunity and while it may wait until the Phoenix game he’s clearly Binghamton-bound.  In general it’s worth mentioning that the Eastern Conference has an awful record against the west, so at least the Sens brethren have been equally terrible against similar opposition.

–Parisi offers his ups and downs for the Sens this past week and has Chris Neil as the biggest dud (hard to argue–dumb penalties have cost his team over and over again), although I agree with Varada that this is simply how the guy plays so is he really down or just average?

-Speaking of Neil, prior to the Anaheim game Paul MacLean said:

We can’t continue to take penalties, the undisciplined type of penalties we take. We just can’t do it, have any type of success, and again (Saturday) we took way too many penalties we didn’t have to take, and we can’t expect our goalies to kill them off, so we have to be much better. For the most part, we ended up getting away from the things that make us successful then we started taking penalties. When you start taking penalties all it does is suck the life out of your team and gives them tons of momentum. We’ve got to find different ways of not (taking penalties). It ultimately could come down to not playing.

This does not appear to apply to the assistant captain as yet.

-Going back to Varada, I don’t disagree with him that Jared Cowen has struggled, but given that the guy missed most of training camp I give him some leeway early in the season.  I agree with Varada that Chris Phillips has been awful defensively, but like Neil that’s par for the course.

–Travis has been pumping Kyle Turris‘ tires (along with Clarke MacArthur) even in the last couple of games, but I think his wish to see Jason Spezza demoted to the second line is just that: a wish.  Paul MacLean gives his veterans a lot of rope and that’s going to be extra long for the oft-injured captain.

-Binghamton exacted some revenge on Norfolk by beating them 4-1 on Saturday.  Nathan Lawson picked up the win and the team played well in earning the victory (here’s the boxscore and the local beat report).  Unlike their previous contest there were no fisticuffs as both teams stuck to playing hockey.  The B-Sens next game is against Syracuse on Friday.

-Elmira played its second (and last) pre-season game, earning a 3-1 over Louie Caporusso and Dustin Gazley‘s Reading Royals.  Ludwig Karlsson made his Jackal debut and finished it without making a meaningful impression.

-A little off-topic, but it’s funny to see Dallas Eakins scratch Nail Yakupov when the Oilers’ problems are between the pipes.  Admittedly, the internal alternatives to Devan Dubnyk aren’t that appealing, but right now Edmonton is better off trying to out score opponents than shut the door on them.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 14, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-Ottawa faces San Jose tonight and here’s the lineup: Michalek-Spezza-Ryan, MacArthur-Turris-Conacher, Greening-Pageau-Condra, Smith-Da Costa-Neil; the defense pairings are unchanged and Anderson will get the start [correction: Lehner will start].  The Sharks are currently 4-0 (reminiscent of their fast start last season) and are a good test for Ottawa.

-Binghamton fell to Norfolk 5-0 last night as Andrew Hammond was shelled for all five goals in the first before Nathan Lawson was brought in for clean-up duty.  The B-Sens couldn’t beat Frederik Andersen and the game ended with a bunch of meaningless fights.  Here’s the boxscore.  Binghamton faces Norfolk again tonight and have made a few changes to their lineup, with Darren Kramer replacing Shane Prince and Tyler Eckford/Ben Blood dressing instead of Troy Rutkowski/Michael Sdao.  Lawson will start and here are the lines: Hoffman-Zibanejad-Petersson, Dziurzunski-Grant-Robinson, Puempel-O’Brien-Kramer, Schneider-Hamilton-Cowick; defensive pairings weren’t posted, but I’d expect Blood to play with Wideman and Eckford to play with Claesson.

-Elmira has begun trimming their roster, releasing Mike McDonald, Scott Morongell, Tyler Noseworthy, Daniel Barczuk, Corey Bellamy, and Mike Monfredo.

–Jeff Marek does his best to defend fighting, allowing that “tradition” isn’t an argument, so he goes for the “players consented” as justification (which presumably means if guys want to swing their sticks at each other we should let that happen too).  He tells us staged fights are fine and if you disagree:

indicates you’re being dishonest or haven’t watched the game long enough

But wait Jeff, didn’t you preface your article with:

less a conversation than two groups of people who’ve made up their minds, dug in their heels and covered their ears

I guess telling people who disagree with you that they are dishonest and don’t watch the game enough is an example of reasoned debate.  He then says we can’t compare the NHL to the NFL (where fighting is banned) because:

Hockey is a flow game, not a stop and start affair

So it’s like Basketball…which also banned fighting.  If someone can explain how “flow” equals “fighting is justified” please do so in the comments below.  Jeff then tells us a fighting ban will mean no one will buy tickets because…er, someone told him that. Now, I realise Marek isn’t a serious journalist and that this kind of garbage is typical from Sportsnet, but it’s always worth addressing because some people take published material at face value.  When you read his entire article he doesn’t actually formulate a single argument–he just says things are true without justifying them and is utterly indifferent to the physical trauma suffered by those who engage in the practice.  What fascinates me is how threatened some people are at the thought of fighting being removed from the game–how is that removal going to adversely impact their lives?

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 12, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

–Scott had the scoring chances in the LA game 13-16.

–The Raaymaker thinks the solution to the Sens penalty killing woes is dressing Eric Gryba, summoning Jim O’Brien or Derek Grant from Binghamton, while getting Chris Neil to take fewer dumb penalties.  The bulk of these suggestions seem pretty unrealistic to me (other than a Gryba insertion).  One of the main reasons the Sens PK was so good last year had nothing to do with their personnel and a lot to do with their goaltending (as Chris discussed back in July).

–Travis Yost talks about a front office change for the Sens, which others have said is not related to hockey ops.

-Binghamton plays Norfolk tonight and have made two changes to their lineup from their season-opening win: Buddy Robinson replaces the injured Mark Stone, while Andrew Hammond gets his first AHL start.  Norfolk is coming off a 4-3 shootout loss to Bridgeport; the Admirals are Anaheim’s farm team so B-Sens fans will get a look at Stefan Noesen (who never wound up playing in Binghamton).

-D. J. Powers is previewing NCAA hockey and some of his comments touch on Sens prospects.  About Ohio State‘s Ryan Dzingel:

The Wheaton, IL native was especially good on the Buckeyes special teams last season. Of his 16 goals, six came on special teams – five on the power-play and one shorthanded. Dzingel’s noticeably stronger 6’0” frame allowed him to better fend off opposing defenders and be more effective in controlling the puck. This was especially evident in his relentless drives to the net and his ability to find and utilize open spaces more effectively.

On Max McCormick:

McCormick finished third on Ohio State’s roster last season with 31 points (15 goals, 16 assists) in 40 games. The De Pere, WI native played his best hockey near the end of last season, so the Buckeyes are hoping that he’ll be able to pick up this season where he left off last season. Two notable areas that helped make McCormick so good last season were his stronger play along the walls and the grittiness that he has added to his game.

–Graphic Comments does a great job at explaining advanced statistics (along with a nice jab at Glen Healy for not understanding them).  It’s baffling to me how a certain type of fan seems offended by the very idea of the stats (check out some of the comments)–as if facts can cause them harm.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 11, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-The Sens overcame a 3-0 deficit to lose to LA 4-3 in overtime.  I was unable to watch the game (alas), but from what I’ve been told the team struggled through much of the game (a lot of penalty trouble) before mounting a comeback.  Amelia L provides a thorough summary of the gameplay (there’s a shorter one from Travis Yost).  Here’s the boxscore.

–Travis looks at the four-year trend in penalty-calling in the NHL and the Sens have the second worst ratio in the league, which illustrates the organisation has not sucked up enough to the people in charge of the officials (bravo Chicago!).  For those of you who think I’m being overly cynical…maybe, but given the roster (and coaching) turnover I’m don’t think trends like that should occur.

–Sam Page says we don’t need to debate fighting because it’s dying already due to the evidence provided by advanced statistics.  There’s a lot of good stuff in this, but one thing Page says bothers me:

Most fans, I suspect, support fighting as the expression of a genuine and building frustration toward a rival team, or as a means of karmic retribution on the NHL’s worst pests.

I mean, do they?  That’s a huge assumption based on…nothing.  Absolutely nothing.  Given his reliance on facts in his article it’s a bad slip by Page.  Regardless, the meat of his article is solid:

How much exactly does an enforcer cost a team with his fumbling play? Derek Zona calculated that in 2010 the average goon took his team down one whole win in the standings, which seems like a small number until you look at the standings. Zona’s calculation holds up today. Hockey Prospectus records a statistic called GVT (Goals Versus Threshold) that attempts to measure, essentially, Wins Above Replacement (to borrow a sabermetric concept). Just doing some quick back-of-the-napkin math — using last year’s results and knowing that the average forward GVT was about 3.5, and about three goals are worth a team point in the standings.

Don Brennan favourite Zenon Konopka is among the worst offenders costing his team 3 wins by this measure.

Everyone knows that supergoons can’t play, but GMs tolerate their presence on rosters because they think they can get away with it. The trick is that they were never really getting away with it. Now an increasing number of NHL fans and teams realize that deterrence doesn’t work when goons only fight other goons. Roster spots are too precious.

That realisation clearly hasn’t sunk in for the Sens.

–Kevin Klein makes the point that players can have positive Corsi numbers if they are surrounded by others who are actually driving them.  This may seem simplistic, but it does illustrate how a coach can “hide” a mediocre player.

-It’s not hockey related, but the general celebration going on for Alice Munro’s Nobel Prize made me think about my approach to awards in general–which is that they are political (have fun reading through Wikipedia for how pervasive that is) and essentially irrelevant when it comes to determining the qualitative importance of anything (which makes Scott Reynolds approach on deciding on the greatest players futile).  Amelia L‘s post made me think the point is that the symbolic importance is what matters–that is to say, how people perceive an award winner (like Munro) is more important than any intrinsic value the actual award has:

This is such a big deal. It wasn’t until the 1960s that you could actually take a Can Lit class at a Canadian university. Today, despite numerous internationally recognized Canadian authors, Can Lit classes and Canadianist scholars are still looked down on by some in English Departments. I’ve attended universities known for their focus on Canadian literature and even at these institutions, when Canadianist scholars retire, they aren’t replaced by Canadianists. Canadianist scholars have to demonstrate their versatility in English departments, hired because of the other things they can teach and not their focus on Canadian literature. A Canadian winning the Nobel Prize for Literature should be celebrated news in those institutions. When I used to hold office hours at the University College building on the University of Western Ontario campus, I often thought about two things: that Alice Munro used to walk those same halls and that these cockroaches are gross. While Munro has long been a celebrated author, at Canadian universities we still deal with people who are “not interested in teaching books by women” in 2013.

I’ve always thought the problem for Canadian Lit were that the authors selected for study (as a long-suffering English major I’d like to punch Michael Ondaatje in the face for his pretentious garbage).  The attitude towards women authors is, of course, idiotic, but then there are people who don’t like to read at all–so Darwin award winners exist aplenty in the species.  But to go back to awards (which dovetails into my indifference for who gets them in the NHL) if this helps the perception of Canadian authors then bravo to The Swedish Academy for shining a light where it was needed.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 10, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

–Craig Anderson will get the start against the Kings.  Lines seem to be: Michalek-Spezza/Da Costa-Ryan, MacArthur-Turris-Conacher, Greening-Smith-Neil, Kassian-Pageau-Condra.  Da Costa will play if Spezza can’t.

-I have no idea why anyone is getting excited/anxious about Bobby Ryan and Nichols traces the concern back not to the fanbase but to the media.  Fake controversies are nothing new, albeit they remain extremely annoying.

-The Sens have posted their first prospect update.

–Mark Parisi talks about the nature of groin injuries by quoting a pair of doctors at length–for those interested in the mechanics of it, it’s very thorough.

–Mika Zibanejad was interviewed by Ian Mendes and Nichols transcribes it for us–noteworthy in that Mika says all the right things.

-Here’s my prediction for the Binghamton Senators.  Bob Howard, who covers the B-Sens, see’s things a little differently, although I don’t think his argument of success through toughness works.

-Speaking of Binghamton, Jeff Ulmer offers a blow-by-blow account of their game against Syracuse.

–Josh W explores how luck impacts analytics when it comes to predicting outcomes in hockey (the article assumes you are familiar with the concepts therein) and while admitting to a small sample size his conclusions are interesting.

It was interesting to see that the AHL has more parity than the NHL, my assumption would be that is because it is talent that is near the same, people who are just below NHL talent level, or younger players developing. You don’t see the superstars that the NHL would have. Also interesting is how stable the OHL is versus the QMJHL, but that could be a small sample size. Another thing that I was surprised to see, although it makes sense by inspection, that talent does not equal parity. This goes hand in hand with the NHL vs KHL. The KHL is the league closest to the NHL (at least in terms of NHL equivalency points, assuming the NHL is the top league). Leagues with much lower talent have more parity than the KHL (I.e. the ECHL). So while parity != talent, as parity is the difference between your best and worst teams, the less parity your league has the easier it is to predict the leagues. The more parity the closer the games move towards a coin flip.

-The absurd idea that Kay Whitmore can police goaltending equipment throughout the NHL does not get any bolster from Pierre LeBrun‘s brief mention:

I’ll be going around more [this year], doing more unexpected visits to rinks around the league

“More” than what?  Why is it just Whitmore?  One man cannot police the goaltending community and the idea that it’s working is only going to be bolstered if someone gets suspended–something that has yet to occur and I don’t expect it to happen this season.

–Lance Hornby looks at how Borje Salming opened the door to the influx of Europeans into the NHL.

–Ian C McLaren looks at hockey fandom and why there’s so much acrimony and his best point is this:

Last spring, Jeff Marek made an interesting point on the MvsW podcast that speaks to the divisive nature of sports fandom. His basic premise was that sports marketing and culture is set up to create and “us vs them” mentality, and that this is expressed most clearly in the use of “(Blank) Nation” or “(Blank) Army” or “(Blank)Fam” *barf* to describe a fan base. What this does is establish a mobilization of the fans wherein we feel as though we are actually part of the battle, so to speak.

This is absolutely the case, although I’ve always found broadcasters much more annoying than fans of opposing teams (I mean really, can we blame someone for cheering their team on in the opposing building?).  I’m less fond of this chestnut McLaren poses:

For example, if Player X on Team Y commits an act that we deem to be egregious, we demand that he be suspended and label the player and the team a certain way. BUT, if Player Z on my favorite team commits a similar act, well then we spin it any which way to make it out to be not so bad, that the world is just out to get us.

Is it really that simplistic?  Can we accept without discussion that people are that stupid?  Has it ever been seriously studied?  To my mind it’s all based on context; there’s a wide range of actions that occur on the ice and there’s a big difference between a player who chirps and commits minor fowls to rankle the opposition versus head hunters like Raffi Torres or Matt Cooke.  The fact that all actions are lumped together just doesn’t pass the smell test.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 9, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

It’s time to take a look at the Binghamton Senators in the context of their conference and measure expectations (I did the same last year and underestimated how much they would improve).  Even more so than the NHL, the AHL has gone through a lot of changes between seasons as a number of top players have moved: Chad Kolarik (Wilkes-Barre) and T. J. Hensick (Peoria) signed in Sweden, Darren Haydar (Chicago) signed in Germany, Logan Pyett (Connecticut) signed in Russia (Ryan Potulny did as well, but has been released); Tyler Johnson (Tampa) has graduated to the NHL; Kris Newbury moved from Connecticut to Adirondack, Mark Mancari moved from Rochester to Chicago, Martin St. Pierre moved from Rockford to Hamilton, Justin Fontaine moved from Houston to Iowa, David Leggio moved from Rochester to Hershey, Danny Syvret moved from Adirondack to Hartford, and Mike McKenna moved from Peoria to Springfield.

Every team in the league has received an influx of unexpected talent, although the amount added varies from roster to roster.  As fans there’s a tendency to over value ones own prospects.  It’s also worth remembering that dominant prospects don’t stay in the league for long (and therefore don’t impact the results)–dominant AHL players tend to be veterans.

Binghamton plays in the East Division of the Eastern Conference (where half of their games will be played).  Their division consists of: Hershey (Washington), Norfolk (Anaheim), Syracuse (Tampa Bay), and Wilkes-Barre (Pittsburgh).  The B-Sens finished second in their division and fifth in their conference last season.  What follows is a look at the teams in their division featuring the key turnovers on their rosters (rookies are in italics, other roster additions are in green, anyone who spent most of their time in the NHL is in bold; points from last season are in brackets; I’ve ignored roster losses via players who were in the AHL only during the lockout portion of last season):

Binghamton (44-24-8, 2nd division)
Forwards: Mika Zibanejad (20), Mark Stone (38), Shane Prince (35), Cole Schneider (35), Corey Cowick (35), Derek Grant (28), Mike Hoffman (28), Andre Petersson (5), Matt Puempel (OHL 46)
Defense: Chris Wideman (18), Mark Borowiecki (14), Tyler Eckford (13), Cody Ceci (OHL 64), Troy Rutkowski (WHL 66)
Goaltenders: Nathan Lawson (2.19), Andrew Hammond (NCAA 2.47)
Key losses: Robin Lehner (NHL), Stephane Da Costa (NHL), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (NHL), Pat Cannone (Peoria), Hugh Jessiman (KHL), Brett Lebda (FA)

The B-Sens choose to add no new veteran players to their lineup, simply re-signing Lawson and keeping Eckford (who is in the final year of his two-year deal).  All the cavalry added are prospects either drafted or signed by the organisation.  Binghamton hasn’t had a dominant scorer the last two seasons and unless Zibanejad spends most of his time in the AHL it will be scoring by committee again, with the blueline’s contribution very much up in the air.  This edition of the team is similar to the one denuded of NHL prospects back in January, but that squad was only slightly above .500 and any change is reliant on internal development.  Barring major roster changes I think Binghamton will take a step back and finish fourth in the division (with 38 wins or so).

Hershey (36-31-9, 4th division); 10 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Jeff Taffe (71), Casey Wellman (53), Brandon Segal (44), Michael Latta (38), Garrett Mitchell (30), Peter Leblanc (30), Matt Watkins (30), Jamie Johnson (KHL 22), Derek Whitmore (DEL 23)
Defense: Tomas Kundratek (31), David Kolomatis (28), Chay Genoway (25), Dmitri Orlov (17), Tyson Strachan (4)
Goaltenders: Philipp Grubauer (2.25), David Leggio (2.56)
Key losses: Zach Hamill (Utica), Jon DiSalvatore (DEL), Boyd Kane (KHL), Garrett Stafford (SHL), Dany Sabourin (Austria), Ryan Potulny (FA)
Blog: Sweetest Hockey On Earth covers the Bears

The Bears lost a ton of veterans in the off-season, but have replaced them with others and aren’t reliant on the progress of younger players.  They should improve on last year’s results (the addition of Leggio should help a great deal) and challenge for the division title.

Norfolk (37-34-5, 5th division); 8 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Peter Holland (39), Devante Smith-Pelly (32), Brad Staubitz (2), Steven Whitney (NCAA 45), Rickard Rakell (OHL 44), Stefan Noesen (OHL 53), Antoine Laganiere (NCAA 29)
Defense: Alex Grant (20), Garnet Exelby (9), Nolan Yonkman (7), Ryan Parent (5)
Goaltenders: Frederik Andersen (2.19), Igor Bobkov (3.13), John Gibson (OHL 2.41)
Key losses: Patrick Maroon (NHL), Sami Vatanen (NHL), Nate Guenin (Lake Erie)
Blog: Vulture’s Row covers the Admirals

In the absence of Vatanen and Lindholm (both currently in Anaheim) this is an offensively challenged blueline and a very young forward group.  Goaltending looks like a strong suit, but will the team score enough?  Without great results from rookies I just can’t see the Admirals doing well and I expect them to be last in the division.

Syracuse (43-22-11, 1st division); 10 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Brett Connolly (63), Evan Rankin (31), J. T. Brown (28), Vladislav Namestnikov (21), Dana Tyrell (4), Tanner Richard (OHL 62), Nikita Kucherov (QMJHL 63)
Defense: Matt Taormina (24), Dmitry Korobov (22), Jean-Philippe Cote (17), Nikita Nestorov (KHL 0)
Goaltenders: Cedrick Desjardins (2.12), Riku Helenius (2.57)
Key losses: Tyler Johnson (NHL), Ondrej Palat (NHL), Mark Barberio (NHL), RIchard Panik (NHL), Alex Killorn (NHL), Radko Gudas (NHL), Andrej Sustr (NHL), Pierre Cedric-Labrie (NHL), J. T. Wyman (Lake Erie), Dan Sexton (Liiga)
Blog: I could only find an official feed (Lindsay Kramer) for the Crunch, although undoubtedly there are fan sites out there

Another team that’s going young (at the moment 8 players off last year’s roster have graduated to Tampa), although it’s likely that one or both of Sustr and Barberio will be returned to the team along with one of Panik, Palat, or Killorn.  If only one or two (or none) of those players are returned to the roster they will take a step back as all the meaningful replacement has been internal (much like Binghamton).  In the absence of significant additions I think the Crunch will also have scoring issues and I’m not sold on their goaltending.  I do think players will be sent down to balance the lineup out enough for Syracuse to finish third in the division.

Wilkes-Barre (42-30-4, 3rd division); 8 games vs Binghamton
Forwards: Andrew Ebbett (6), Nick Drazenovic (53), Chris Connor (40), Brian Gibbons (30), Paul Thompson (29), Harry Zolnierczyk (19), Tom Kostopoulos (7)
Defense: Simon Despres (7), Brian Dumoulin (24), Brendan Mikkelson (2), Scott Harrington (OHL 19)
Goaltenders: Peter Mannino (2.47), Eric Hartzell (NCAA 1.57), Jeff Deslauriers (ECHL 3.25)
Key losses: Beau Bennett (NHL), Jeff Zatkoff (NHL), Trevor Smith (Toronto), Alex Grant (Norfolk), Riley Holzapfel (SHL), Chad Kolarik (SHL), Dylan Reese (KHL), Brad Thiessen (Liiga)
Blog: another official blog (Jonathan Bombulie)

Like Hershey the Penguins lost a lot of veterans in the off-season, but like their rival they have replaced them with others.  Bennett will likely stay in the big leagues while Zatkoff should be returned at some point (Deslauriers is on a PTO).  Despite all the changes I don’t think Wilkes-Barre has taken a step back and should be at least as effective as they were last season, so they’ll challenge for first in the division, but finish behind the Bears.

To sum up my expectations (given the above lineups, minus one or two changes):
Hershey
Wilkes-Barre
Syracuse
Binghamton
Norfolk

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

October 8, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-Ottawa lost 5-4 to Toronto in a shootout in a game I was unable to watch (Mark Parisi has a brief overview of it and points out Craig Anderson has not done well in shootouts of late); the general sentiment I’ve heard is that the second line was great, but the rest of the team was not (as Travis Yost echoes).  Scott had the scoring chances 20-26 (they were 27-18 in the Buffalo game).  Here is the boxscore.

–Yost likes what he’s seen from the Sens other than their penalty killing, where he believes Eric Gryba‘s absence can’t be replaced, but he’s a detriment outside the PK.  Scott thinks Erik Karlsson isn’t himself and believes it may be months before he is; Matt Kassian doesn’t deter anything; and Elliotte Friedman has finally figured out Mika Zibanejad‘s demotion was money-related.

–Varada looks at the issue of fighting in hockey and he dismisses the ethical side of things because:

Who cares if thousands die in car accidents every year, I hate the bus! Once again, with feeling: people enjoy fighting enough not to care if someone is hurt doing it.

I didn’t know selective enjoyment answered ethics questions, but god knows most people don’t want actual ethics debates so I understand why Varada wants to skip over it.  I do like his approach to how fighting fits into the game:

Just as the shootout is viewed as a gimmicky aberration detracting from the purity of a well-contested, TEAM-based exploit, I have to ask how two ‘specialists’ dropping gloves to stop the course of play isn’t also gimmicky.

Touche good sir!  People who hate the shootout almost inevitably love fighting.  Fighting is literally disconnected from playing hockey–officials blow the whistle and the fists fly outside of game time.

–SkinnyFish (who supports keeping fighting in the game without really going into why) demolishes the notion that fighters deter other nasty behaviour in opposing teams by using the statistical evidence.

-Varada (same link above) also thinks the Zibanejad demotion is the same as Karlsson‘s in his rookie season–I don’t follow this at all as the context in completely different (and no, it does not save a year of his ELC, but that question from Varada might explain why he doesn’t explore the financial elements behind the move).

–Mike Glotov writes a massive blog containing his thoughts about the Sens this season.  After a summary of off-season events he delves into comparisons based on various roster moves (eg Conacher–Silfverberg).  He hopes the Sens won’t suffer the same injury-woes as last season (I wouldn’t count on it in terms of Spezza and Michalek), which is grouped among seven hopes/expectations.  There’s a lot to read and as long as you don’t mind wading through Google translation’s iffy Russian it’s well worth it.

-Binghamton beat Syracuse 4-3 in overtime, with Zibanejad tying the game in the third and Cody Ceci winning it in overtime (Lawson picked up the victory).  Here’s the boxscore and the highlights.  Stone was hurt in the game with a possible shoulder injury.

-BSens practice lines: Robinson-Zibanejad-Puempel; Prince-O’Brien-Petersson; Dziurzynski-Grant-Hoffman; Cowick-Culek-Schneider/Kramer; Borowiecki-Ceci; Claesson-Rutkowski; Wideman-Blood; Eckford-Sdao.

-Hockey’s Future previews the AHL’s Eastern Conference and says this about Binghamton:

After an impressive season for both Binghamton and their parent Ottawa, Binghamton fell flat in the Calder Cup Playoffs, getting swept by Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in the first round. With another positive outlook for the Senators organization with little change in the roster, expect a similar regular season record in 2013-14. Up front, look for the continued development of Mika Zibanejad, who played with Ottawa in 2013. The Senators decided he needed some more seasoning, so he’ll see some more time in Binghamton. Zibanejad is joined by finishing specialist Matt Puempel and grinder Mark Stone. Also, look out for Shane Prince, Mike Hoffman and Derek Grant. The forward-heavy Senators’ defensive corps are highlighted by the arrival of Cody Ceci, the 19-year-old 2012 first round draft pick who played in six games for Binghamton last season. Ceci has the size (6’3”, 203 lbs.) to compete at the NHL level, but needs some time to learn to use that size. He has offensive upside and should see time on the power-play and penalty kill. Ceci is joined by Mark Borowieck, a stay-at-home defenseman with a penchant for pugilism, and Frederik Claesson, a defender in the mode of Dennis Seidenberg; he’ll get the job done, but you won’t notice him for it.

I’m not sure what to make of this–it’s pretty generic, but contains a couple of puzzling comments (Stone as a grinder and Claesson as a Seidenberg-style player?).

-The Devils sent four players to Elmira.  The Jackals opened their pre-season with a 5-4 win over Wheeling despite trailing 4-0 in the second.  None of Binghamton’s players were dressed for the game.

This article is written by Peter Levi

October 7, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-The Sens opened their season with a win last night in a game filled with chances (a combined 81 shots, establishing a new benchmark for shots (39) in the first without a goal) but only one goal, as Erik Karlsson scored late in the third to give the team and Craig Anderson the win over Ryan Miller.  The game was sloppy and back and forth–Ottawa dominated the first period and latter half of the third (Travis Yost points out the Sens won the game’s Corsi battle).  Amelia L provides a blow-by-blow account of the game for those who missed it.

-Ottawa faces Toronto tonight with two changes: Joe Corvo replaces Eric Gryba and Stephane Da Costa sits for Matt Kassian.  The Leafs are 2-0 to start the season and James Reimer is expected to start.

–Michael Farber looks at the NHL’s efforts to improve goal scoring (with the long delayed reduction of goalie equipment being the centerpiece, although Brian Hayward says there’s lot’s left to shrink).  The league realises that goals are what bring in casual fans–they don’t care about good defensive hockey–but other than the brief period of obstruction calling in 05-06 has been inept in making that happen.

–Clarke MacArthur is not a fan of Randy Carlyle:

He runs the show there, and everyone knows that, and that’s the way it is. It’s worked for him in the past, he’s got a Cup from that, but at the same time there’s other ways to do things, too. Some guys are good with it. Some guys are good with the criticism, but they don’t want to hear it every single shift they come off the ice. You’re old enough to know ‘I made a mistake,’ you don’t need to hear it every five seconds. He [Grabovski] said it all right there. He certainly didn’t have a tight lip about it. That was something to see. He was frustrated. He was a guy who had 30 goals and two years of 55 or whatever points (58 and 51) and Randy came in, it just didn’t work out, he turned him into a checker. Look at him now, four points in his first game, three goals. Who was right there? I know who’s right.

I thought I’d mentioned Grabovski‘s comments back in July (you can see them in the link), but apparently was too caught up in Daniel Alfredsson‘s departure to get to it.

-Here is Binghamton’s lineup against Syracuse: Matt Puempel-Mika Zibanejad-Mark Stone, Shane Prince-Jim O’Brien-Andre Petersson, Mike Hoffman-Derek Grant-David Dziurzynski, Corey Cowick-Wacey Hamilton-Cole Schneider; Mark Borowiecki-Cody Ceci, Michael Sdao-Chris Wideman, Fredrik Claesson-Troy Rutkowski.  Lawson will get the start.  Scratches: Buddy Robinson, Darren Kramer, Jakub Culek, Tyler Eckford, and Ben Blood.  I find Robinson‘s exclusion the most surprising, but everything else seems par for the course (the mystery of Hamilton continues).  I haven’t seen the full lineup posted for the Crunch, but the top line will be Namestnikov-Connolly-Kucherov and one of Desjardins/Helenius will start.

-Elmira signed center Philip-Michael Davos, who spent all last season playing for Syracuse.  Along with the signing the Jackals announced their training camp roster (those in italics are on tryouts, with their league of origin in square brackets; those sent by Binghamton are in green):
Goaltenders (3): Scott Greenham, Nick Niedert [ECHL-FHL-CHL-SPHL], Mike McDonald [NCAA]
Defensemen (13): Danny New, Patch Alber, Dylan Quaile, Kyle Bushee, Jordon Southorn, Pat O’Keefe, Mathieu Gagnon, Zach McCullough, Mike Monfredo, Scott Morongell [NCAA], Vincent Richer, Matt Caranci [FHL]
Forwards (21): Ludwig Karlsson, Danny Hobbs, Philip-Michael Davos, Corey Bellamy, Matt Carter, Dan Barczuk, Olivier Croteau, Artem Demkov, Rob Bellamy, Michael Beaudry, Brandon Blandina, Jordan Pietrus, Justin Gvora, Alexandre Carrier, Dane Walters, Jean Bourbeau, Cody Dion [Finland tier-3], Tyler Noseworthy [ECHL-FHL-SPHL], Locke Jillson [CHL], Edgar Rybakov [MHL tier-2], Brett Leonard [FHL]

Niedert tried out for the Jackals last season as well (he played for eight different teams last year through four leagues), but I suspect neither he nor McDonald will wind up sharing duties with Greenham.  Most (if not all) the tryout players will be replaced by those sent down from the AHL.

This article is written by Peter Levi

October 5, 2013
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment