Reviewing the Ottawa Senators 2013 NHL Entry Draft

With the draft in the books it’s time to take a look at how the Ottawa Senators did.  Just like the previous three drafts the Sens were unable to land a 2nd round pick.  The normal Murray draft trends continued, as they selected a local kid, a player from the QMJHL (the same as the local in this instance), picked from the WHL, Sweden, US leagues (NCAA and EJHL this year), and picked a player completely off the map (two this time).  I’ve compiled all the scouting reports I can find below.  Here’s who was picked:

1-17 Curtis Lazar (CR/RW, 6’0, DOB 1995, Edmonton (WHL))

3-78 Marcus Hogberg (GL, 6’5, DOB 1994, Linkoping (SuperElit))

4-102 Tobias Lindberg (RW, 6’2, DOB 1995, Djurgarden (SuperElit))

4-108 Ben Harpur (DR, 6’6, DOB 1995, Guelph (OHL))

5-138 Vincent Dunn (CL, 5’11, DOB 1995, Val-d’Or (QMJHL))

6-161 Chris Leblanc (RW, 6’3, DOB 1993, South Shore (EJHL))

6-168 Quentin Shore (CR, 6’2, DOB 1994, Denver (NCAA))

A sum total of five forwards, one defensemen, and one goalie.  Here are the majority of the scouting reports for each player (acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), RLR (Red Line Report), FC (Future Considerations), HP (Hockey Prospects), McK (Mckeen’s), THN (The Hockey News), CS (Central Scouting), CP (Corey Pronman), and TSN)–I didn’t including THN or TSN’s short blurbs, just their rankings.

Curtis Lazar (WHL 72-38-23-61)
Draft rankings: THN 9, ISS/McK 12, FC 17, TSN 18, CS 20, HP 21, RLR 22, CP 29
Tim Murray: thought getting him at 17 was a steel and see’s him as a future leader (for those who remember his comments prior to the draft it sounds like they had him ranked 13-14).
ISS: lists his shot as excellent, his skating, puck skills, offensive/defensive play, competitiveness, and hockey sense as very good, his physical play as good and his size/strength as average. His strengths are his laser release on his shot, his work ethic, and his ability to rise to the occasion; his weaknesses are his strength and offensive consistency. He’s a very good two-way player with good fire in his game and good offensive capabilities. His potential is as a 2nd/3rd line player with PP potential, could evolve into top line sniper. They compare his style to Dustin Brown. Finally they write: It’s been an up and down season for Lazar in terms of his prospect status. He can be simply dominant and the best player on the ice at times, but he can also fall into long lapses where the offensive potential is nowhere to be found. Even so, he is consistently an effective player, who plays with good determination and high skill. He can grind with players much larger than himself, has very good smooth hands and can shoot the lights out from almost anywhere on the ice. He’s not the biggest kid, but he plays without fear or trepidation. The big knock so far has been in high exposure events (such as CHL TP game and Canada U18 evaluation camp) he has looked very average.
FC: Strengths: Lazar is a defensively strong forward with good speed and goal scoring ability. He possesses good quickness out the gate, has good mobility and turning ability, even at top speed. He’s a dynamic skater who has powerful legs and pretty solid acceleration. Lazar uses a wide balanced stance when protecting the puck and is hard to knock off stride and while he won’t blow the doors off of anyone, is tough to knock off the puck. He gets himself in good position to shoot, finding holes offensively, where he can unleash both a hard wrist or slap shot. He also has a very quick backhand in his shooting arsenal as well as a deadly one-timer. Is a killer from the slot-in with his great release and knows when, where and how to put pucks on net. Lazar isn’t afraid to deke to finish off plays from in close, either. He’s not just a shooter as his puck distribution and vision are superb and makes some excellent passes including quick cross-crease dishes on the backhand in tight to the net, multi-zone stretch passes from his own zone and soft saucer passes to streaking linemates. His passes have good velocity and are usually right on the tape. While he does have pretty good hands, he is not a real flashy puck dangling forward who will try to go end-to-end much if at all. He’s gritty, plays very physical when the situation calls for it and is versatile in that he can play on a skilled line as well as on a line with two very big and physical players. He bangs and crashes regularly along the walls, takes hits to make plays and shows the leadership and smarts that is rare for a player this age. He’s a true hockey player and a leader. He’ll be a glue guy in the NHL and a good guy in the room as a heart and soul player. He shows great inner drive, is a hard worker and displays great character, serving as an assistant captain as a 17-year-old on a veteran team. He will one day do that at the NHL level. Lazar plays with high energy and good intensity each and every shift. He has his head on a swivel each and every shift and his positioning in his own zone and in the neutral zone is fantastic. He is very good at reading the play and taking away lanes with his body and stick. Lazar will be one of the safest bets to make the Show out of this draft class as he is almost a guarantee to make an impression in one way or another. Weaknesses: Lazar is a total defensive first player who does not take risks in the name of offense or to generating a scoring chance. While that is not necessarily a bad thing, it does reflect in his offensive numbers in junior and his perceived NHL offensive upside. He has not really shown much in the way of offensive creativity but instead just taking what he is given to produce opportunities. Is he a very good third line shutdown centre who can play your PK as well as add a little offense to your team or is he a great twoway second line center who can do it all and boost his offensive contributions? Scout’s quote: “Some label Lazar as a great second or third liner, which tends to come with a negative stigma when people think first round talent. But, if by second or third liner, you mean a guy that can score 20-plus goals consistently, be a devastating weapon on the forecheck, and play well in all areas of the ice? Sure, I’ll take him in the first round any day of the week.” NHL Potential: Top Nine Two-Way Forward.
HP: Lazar entered this season with a lot of hype surrounding his game. His play without the puck was very impressive for such a young player, while his offensive game was starting to improve. He has not been able to put up the offensive numbers that usually garner the amount of attention that he is getting now, but there is certainly potential in his game to be an effective 2 way forward in the NHL one day. The best attribute of Lazar’s game is his play without the puck. He is always in such good position in his own end, and is very strong along the boards. He is always out on the ice in crucial defensive situations, and will positively impact the game in some way. He fearlessly blocks shots to help his team win games, and seems to be able to consistently be in the shooting lane. His coverage down low is very good, and displays good anticipation to be able to knock away passes and tie up opponents. Offensively, Lazar has a very impressive wrist shot. He has a nice quick release off the rush in speed. He is not much of a playmaker, and most of his offensive contribution will come in the form of goals and scoring chances. He is able to get into good position in dangerous scoring areas, and make himself available for passes. Lazar has a bit of work to do with his hands around the net, as he could further develop his scoring touch. He has also shown that he is a streaky scorer. He may go a long stretch of not picking up any point, then go on a long streak where he seems to score whenever he is around the net. Lazar will have to be able to consistently put up points to be a more dangerous player as a pro. Lazar is by no means a slow player, but he does have some work to do in terms of his acceleration. It takes him a bit longer to reach his good top end speed, and it inhibits him from being a more dangerous player than he could be. Any team that is looking for a heart and soul, future captain will not have to look further than Curtis Lazar. He may not put up more than 50 points a year in his prime, but he is able to impact the game in more ways than just offensively. He plays the game with such a passion, that it will be contagious within the dressing room. If he can continue to play a 200 ft game while improving his strength and speed and chip in offensively, he will put up a long NHL career.
McK: a responsible and diligent two-way forward .. makes valuable contributions with or without the puck – exploiting sharp hockey sense and good awareness .. powerful, balanced skater when in flight, however, could benefit from additional explosiveness .. hands are more quick and strong rather than finely skilled .. packs a hard shot whose release is both fast and fluid .. dangerous when trailing the rush with speed and firing a one-timer full bore from the slot .. steadily maturing and progressing as a playmaker .. now assesses options before joining the fray and will re-direct pucks to teammates instead of taking low-percentage shots .. should improve his finesse skills and puckhandling in traffic .. can move the puck however as he possesses adept one-touch skills and an ability to execute at a feverish tempo .. can get through defenses with his tenacity – getting key touches on the puck and overwhelming defenders with his speed and persistence .. displays a defensive conscience and positional maturity that belies his age .. neither big nor overtly mean, yet fiercely competitive with deceiving toughness .. continuously engaged both mentally and physically .. comes back deep in strong support positions – and will deliver stiff hits throughout his own zone .. functions most effectively in more of a secondary role – and not front-and-center in the attack.
CP: Lazar is a well-rounded forward, with the benefit of having one of the smallest risk factors in this draft (in terms of probability of becoming an NHL player). He is an above-average skater who can flash plus ability in that area. He covers a lot of ice due to his tremendous work ethic, as he is always moving his feet. He can change gears quickly, and he picks up speed well. Despite being a tad undersized, he is a solid, physical player who is good on the forecheck. He is not afraid to drive the net, either. He is one of the best defensive forwards in this draft, and is very good in that area for a player his age. He takes checks very well, knows how to position himself in his own end, and does not tend to hurt his own team. Similar to the prospects preceding him on this list, there is debate over his offensive ability. I see him as a player with above-average offensive skill, but one scout I talked to said that he is shy in displaying offensive creativity, and that he tends to rely on safe plays. He has solid hands, good instincts, and a very good shot, but his offensive progression will determine what kind of NHL player will be.

Marcus Hogberg (SuperElit 2.41 .917)
Draft rankings: CS 4, McK 71, TSN honourable mention, FC 153, RLR 159, CP 196
Tim Murray: needs coaching, to get stronger, and to mature; believed he was the best goalie in Sweden.
Pierre Dorion: raw but athletic and should be the starting goaltender in the Allsvenskan next season.
FC: Hogberg is a big goaltender who has the size and coverage that NHL teams covet. He will need to improve his lateral quickness as well as his consistency. He does show good upside, but is a project prospect that will need considerable time to round into his game. McK: big, poised goalie with sound technical abilities, plus sharp reflexes .. determined and competitive – yet plays calm and controlled – does not force plays and overcommit .. reads and anticipates the play well .. adopts a progressive Swedish butterfly style .. a massive frame allows him to stay deeper and display a wider stance in order to bait shooters to aim low .. will challenge shooters though, and make saves at the top of his crease depending on the situation – his depth being referred to as ‘non static’.. uses his size to his advantage – stays tall in the butterfly with a straight back in order to optimize net coverage .. proficient at keeping himself square to the puckcarrier .. agile and balanced on his feet – both in stance and moving sideways .. smooth and proficient sliding laterally – or when recovering to skates – maintains a strong seal to the ice .. must guard against over-sliding or excess movements in the down position, which can expose unnecessary space over the shoulders .. shades of Nashville’s Pekka Rinne – in the ‘European’ mold.

Tobias Lindberg (SuperElit 43-9-13-22)
Draft rankings: CS 99
Tim Murray: doesn’t know much about it (hit or miss pick), but the European scouts like his potential.
Pierre Dorion: big winger who has speed and skill; a good project.
Vaclav Burda: He’s a kid who was not selected or ranked very high — he was pretty low — but we feel pretty good about his potential, like Colin Greening in our organization. He’s a big guy who can skate, he drives the net, he’s not high end intelligent with the puck but he drives the net with speed and strength and we see these tools that down the road he could play on the big team. He has already played a few games for the big Djurgarden team which is the second highest Swedish league — the Allsvenskan, but mostly he played in the junior league. Next year he’ll be playing either with the men’s team or a junior team. He’s not (physically) mature, he’s got lots of room to build up and we believe that big body might be hard to play against some day.

Ben Harpur (OHL 67-3-12-15)
Draft rankings: ISS 84, CS 101, FC 111, HP 119, CP 129, RLR 136
Tim Murray: leery on picking defensemen after the second round, but scouts believe he’s a late bloomer.
Pierre Dorion: improved a lot through the second half.
ISS: his size/strength is excellent, puck skills and shot good, while his skating and hockey sense are average.  They add: He is clearly a stay-at-home defenseman Harpur’s size is what first jumps out in his game; he shows incredible raw potential with his continually growing frame. Defensively he possesses an active stick and does well containing the opposition low in his zone. He makes a good first pass to exit the defensive zone and is a decent skater given his size. Definitely needs to get more physical given his size, gives up the offensive zone blueline too quickly and his gap was too much which means he isn’t a confident defenseman right now.
FC [consistently misspelled his name as “Harper”]: Harpur is a gangly shutdown defenseman who skates well for a big man. His stride is long and smooth and his lateral mobility is impressive. His transitions are fluid and he does not lose momentum. He needs to improve on his first step as he develops. His hands are soft and he is confident when he has the puck. He is not overly creative with the puck, but he makes strong consistent plays when he has the puck. He consistently makes crisp tape-to-tape passes breakout passes, which lead to quick transition hockey for his team. He has great vision, and makes high percentage passes rarely giving the puck away. He poses a heavy shot from the point. He is good at finding shooting lanes to get pucks to the net, leading to rebound chances for his teammates. He plays a very physical in your face style of hockey. He finished his checks with enthusiasm, without taking himself out of position, and plays the body hard in his own zone. Harpur plays hard in the corners, and makes life miserable for opposing forwards. He shows a high hockey IQ and makes smart decisions. His defensive game is where he really excels on the ice. He is hard to beat one-on-one, and he drives opposing forwards wide never giving them an easy path to the net. His gap control in off the charts, as he surprises opposing forwards who thing they have time. His anticipation in his own end is good. NHL Potential: Bottom-pairing defensive defenseman.
HP: Ben was selected in the 3rd round of the 2011 OHL Priority Selection Draft by the Guelph Storm out of the Niagara Falls Canucks Minor Midget program. Ben made the Storm as a 16 year old but received limited action due to the depth on the Storm blueline. Harpur had a steady sophomore season for the Storm. He is a big bodied presence on the blue line and is good at using his size to lean on smaller forwards and clear out the front of the net. He needs to work at bringing a consistent physical presence to his game and finish more checks when given the opportunity. He is a good skater despite being such a big guy and has adequate speed to jump into the offensive rush when available. However, he has struggled in one on one situations at times due to a late pivot. He is good at using his long stick to keep opponents to the outside and is effective at getting into passing lanes and intercepting passes. Harpur is sometimes caught standing around in the defensive zone and needs to consistently pressure opposing forwards rather than let the play come to him. He takes good angles when he does pressure forwards and is good at keeping his body to the net so that driving lanes are kept to a minimum. He occasionally steps up and effectively holds the offensive blue line strong but is sometimes slow transitioning from forwards to backwards and would benefit from improved foot speed. Harpur is good at getting his shots on net through traffic but needs to work at walking the line to create better shooting lanes. Ben shows flashes of potential but also needs to further improve and become more comfortable in his size. He will need to become a better skater and play a more tenacious game at his size. He does a variety of things well but nothing that stands out as exceptional. Harpur is a player we see going outside the first few rounds and selected to become a reliable defensive defenseman at the next level. One that doesn’t play huge minutes but can be relied upon in his own end, and to hopefully play a penalty killing role as well.

Vincent Dunn (QMJHL 53-25-27-52)
Draft rankings: THN 87, HP/CP 94, FC 96, McK honourable mention, ISS 122, RLR 130
Tim Murray: likes that he’ll be playing for Gatineau where it’s easy to keep an eye on him and where he has a good coach.
Pierre Dorion: agitator, good skill, needs to work on his skating.
ISS: his skating and hockey sense are very good, his puck skills and shot are good, while his size/strength is average.  They write: Dunn has exploded out of the gates offensively for the Val d’Or Foreurs and has eclipsed his 13 points last year with 25 goals and 27 assists in just 53 games played. Dunn is a blue collar type, defensive forward and agitator. He works hard, has a good forecheck, finishes checks, and is relentless in all three zones. He is never going to be a big offensive contributor at the next level, but he does projects as very good bottom six utility/role player.
FC: Dunn is a shift disturber who has some underrated offensive skill. He moves well with good quickness but just average straight-line speed. He shows decent balance and agility but could use overall improvement to his skating ability. He is reliable in all zones and thinks the game well. He needs to be more consistent shift-to-shift and use his shot more often. His shot has some pop to it but he needs to get it off his stick quicker as it has a painfully slow release. He makes his biggest impact offensively around the crease looking for rebounds and garbage goals. He has limited vision and puck distribution skills. Dunn works the boards well as he has a stocky strength to him, gets position on his opponent, uses leverage and strength to come out with the puck on his stick. He’s often in the right position on the ice to breakup opponents attack by getting himself into passing lanes, and is strong defensively despite his small stature. He’s willing to drop down in front of a point shot. He’s a hard hitter and relentless forechecker who is not afraid to get gritty or even dirty in an attempt to draw penalties. He’s also ready to drop the gloves to back up his game but is not a very strong fighter. Has a Steve Ott kind of two-way in-your-face type of presence. NHL Potential: top-nine center.
HP: Vincent Dunn came into the QMJHL at 16 years old in 2011-2012 and made a name for himself by playing a rarely seen aggressive and intense game, never backing down from anybody. In fact, in his first two season, Dunn has accumulated close to 200 penalty minutes while being a pretty good hockey player. Dunn displays a great level of energy when he is on the ice which makes him very noticeable, rarely taking a shift off. He will try to get under the skin of his opponents, bantering after whistles, starting scrums, giving a little more on the body check and just knocking them off their game. Although he is not the biggest player at 5’11”, Dunn will rarely refuse a fight and he is a proven fighter in that realm. He is a player you don’t like to come up against because of his level of competitiveness and associated intensity will expose a soft player. He doesn’t necessary lay out the big hit often, but will be physical on the forecheck with high energy. He has an above-average top speed and great power in his first few strides to quickly reach max speed. He is not an East-West player by any means, but has quick feet and will use them to gain time and space laterally. He has quick hands and more than a decent skill set that he uses well in tight spaces to get pucks around the net to generate a scoring chance or simply keep the puck in battles. A strong player, Dunn has good puck protection and his tenacity makes him tough to knock off the puck. He will score goals around the net, jumping on rebounds but he also scores some solid goals off the rush. His offensive vision is impressive, finding teammates quickly and executing skilled setups on the rush. He is also effective when delaying the play because of those good passing skills. Defensively, Dunn has never stopped progressing, working hard and supporting his defensemen well. He needs to play a better positional game as he tends to be a little too aggressive at times. Dunn can overreact and be undisciplined also, he needs to have control of his temper. His hits can be dangerous at times. Dunn doesn’t possess a big frame or high end offensive potential for the next level, but his intensity and character mixed with his above-average abilities make him a very interesting pick come draft day.
McK: Surprised with a 25-goal breakout sophomore outburst, although his play regressed over the back half .. hurt the team with costly, undisciplined penalties in the playoffs – and also damaged his stock with a two-game suspension in November for inappropriate comments – deemed by the ref as ‘racial taunts, gestures and slurs’ .. skilled undersized agitator .. plays a pugilistic style aimed at taking opponents off their game .. willing combatant – took six major penalties last season .. aggressive forechecker – finishes checks assertively despite a smaller stature .. packs a good accurate wristshot which he can unload at full flight .. choppy skater – propelled by a short compact stride and busy feet .. sluggish in startup and acceleration – misses a separation gear .. does get the most out of his speed once in motion – pumping his feet frantically to generate power .. agility and balance need improvement .. loses momentum in turns – not that stable on crossovers – which have a running quality .. skilled stickhandler and passer – strong on the puck .. does the little things – like going hard to the net and following up rebounds .. takes hits to make plays and competes defensively – albeit can be guilty of soft checking postures .. also struggles to keep his emotions in check which translates into bad penalties.
CP: Dunn had a productive season from a statistical standpoint, although it must be noted that he played on a loaded offensive squad in Val-d’Or. He is a multi-dimensional player, and he can play center or wing effectively. He also has defensive value, and although he is a little small, he will show a good physical game, with offensive abilities. Dunn has above-average hands, as well as a good offensive hockey sense. He tends to set up his teammates well. He is a solid skater as well. He may not have a powerful stride, but he does have a good first few steps, and he moves his feet quickly. Dunn has a lot of energy to his game. He will drive the net, make quick decisions, and engage when he needs to. Despite these positive qualities, it is questionable what his role projects to be in the NHL. His offensive skill is not overwhelming enough to project as a scorer, and due to his size, he will carry questions about his defensive projection. Despite this, he possesses good qualities, and if his development goes well, he will provide value for an NHL team.

Chris Leblanc (EJHL 44-13-20-33)
Draft rankings: unranked
Tim Murray: late bloomer they think they can develop. Committed to Merrimack (NCAA)
Pierre Dorion: big two-way player.

Quentin Shore (NCAA 39-10-9-19)
Draft rankings: CP 179
Pierre Dorion: smart hockey player, competes, two-way; a gamble.
Here’s the ISS scouting report from last year (2012 draft): A very impressive two-way performance during the U18s was just icing on the cake, Shore has consistently impressed ISS scouts during the season and often in a different manner each game. He has a very well rounded skill set that allows him to fit any mould required of him. His faceoff skills and defensive presence were integral in USA’s run for the Gold during the U18 tournament. More goal scorer than playmaker, decent hands and quick release. A very effective shot-blocker on the PK unit that is adept at getting in the shooting lanes and limiting rebounds. Still working on game to game consistency and is an unpolished long-term project.
Here’s McK’s from last year: Quentin plays a very similar game to his brothers, as he is a smart player who makes valuable plays that help out in all three zones. His hockey sense and shot are arguably his best assets, as his one-timer explodes off his stick and his keen hockey sense allows him to stay in close proximity of the puck. He has the innate ability to turn his body off the puck to make a defenseman go the other way and then executes subtle one-touch passes that help in the transition. Shore needs to work on his skating since he offers little to no explosive power in his stride. He’s a versatile player who meshes well with any set of linemates due to his work ethic and ability to process the game. He is a highly coachable player who is loaded with character and has healthy bloodlines.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 29th

-Here are my predictions for who the Sens will draft.

-As expected, Daniel Alfredsson has decided to return for another season.  It would have been a surprise if he decided not to come back, so there’s no need to re-assess the Sens depth going into the fall.

Joe Yerdon believes Chicago’s buyouts of Rostislav Olesz (Jacques Martin’s best contract ever) and Steve Montador mean that Marian Hossa isn’t going anywhere.

-I agree with Lyle Richardson that Bryan Bickell and Pascal Dupuis are likely to be retained by their respective teams.

Adnan speculates on what defensemen the Sens could target if they decide to add a veteran to the blueline.  He throws out Varada-favourite Grant Clitsome, former Leaf Ian White, former Sabre Jordan Leopold, not-quite-NHL-calibre Adam Pardy, and Edmonton-reject Kurtis Foster.  Adnan sums up his list succinctly:

Not an overly fantastic free agent class this year.

That puts it mildly; I wouldn’t sign any of them.  All of these players are better than Mike Lundin, but that’s not the standard we want to keep.  Adnan prefers Leopold among the group, but if I had to pick I’d go with Clitsome.

Ryan Kennedy includes comments from scouts on 42 different draft-eligible players and I highly recommend reading them.

Brian Costello does a less sophisticated, first-round focussed source-blend for a new top-30 for the draft.

Allan Muir offers his mock draft and has the Sens picking Alexander Wennberg with their pick.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 27th

-Today I posted my analysis and predictions for the 2013 NHL draft.  This is a detailed overview of the entire draft.  I will narrow the scope for just the Sens in a separate article, but I do include a preliminary look at who they might draft with each pick.

The Raaymaker jumps on Elliotte Friedman’s comment yesterday that the Lightning are trying to move Ryan Malone.  He makes a pitch for the Sens to get the 33-year old forward who is coming off a rough, injury-filled season.  Malone has one year left on his deal and if a pick is thrown in I’d be fine with the move.  I do have to wonder if the Lightning will part with him though–with both Lecavalier and Malone off the roster the team will have players like Nate Thompson and B. J. Crombeen on their second line…yikes!

Jamie Neugebauer believes the Sens will take Ryan Pulock with their first pick.

Matt Brigidi notes that Columbus is willing to move any or all of its first round selections (14, 19, and 27) via trade, but I’m not sure they pick high enough to interest the Sens.

Travis Yost takes a look at what stats actually matter in the NHL and he dismisses the traditional ones (raw hit numbers, PK percentage, etc) to say only puck possession really indicate how a team is doing.  He’s right that traditional TV media simply ignores Corsi and Fenwick numbers, either because it doesn’t fit the clichés they grew up with or some other reason.  It’s worth keeping in mind that many commentators aren’t exactly analytical (Hockey Night in Canada and Sportsnet in particular come to mind), and are generally on-screen to provide entertainment rather than insight (ala Don Cherry).

Larry Brooks writes about how the NHL closed a potential buyout loophole:

The league would deem re-signing a player following a trade and a subsequent amnesty buyout as circumvention, and thus would not register the contract. It is believed the Lightning and Maple Leafs had discussed such a maneuver regarding Vincent Lecavalier [bought out by Tampa today], who has seven years and $45 million remaining on his contract, with the buyout thus worth slightly more than $30 million. The clubs theoretically would have concocted a swap in which Tampa Bay would have sent an asset — perhaps a draft pick — to rolling-in-dough Toronto along with Lecavalier, who would have re-signed a more modest deal with the Lightning after being bought out by the Leafs.

-The Phoenix saga continues and it looks likely that the latest NHL agreement will be rejected by the city, although I’d take comments about Quebec from Bill Daly as simply an attempt to apply pressure ahead of that vote rather than some kind of commitment.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 26th

-The Chicago Blackhawks won the Stanley Cup, winning the series 4-2 and the game 3-2.  I didn’t have strong feelings over who should win the final, but stylistically I’m glad it was Chicago.

-As expected, RFA Louie Caporusso is the only player the Sens did not qualify.

Travis Yost talks about Milan Michalek getting the same treatment for his knees that helped NBA star Kobe Bryant.

-Speculation continues over whether Daniel Alfredsson will return for another season or not, but to me it has always seemed like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be back.  Alfie has promised the decision by Friday.

-The names of two prospects invited to Ottawa have come out (Adam Erne and Kerby Rychel), but four were invited.

-A pile of Sens draft-related videos have come out and Nichols has transcribed what interests him and starts with Bryan Murray (discussing bringing in a player via trade or free agency):

(A player) that can come in and play and contribute. Not just fill a spot. Not just be there because he’s a veteran hockey player that has been around. A guy that can come in and play in a definite role with this hockey team and contribute in that role.

Nichols see’s this as Murray finally giving up on cheap or broken down fill-ins, but his track record for the latter is quite long so I’m not so sure.  Next up is Tim Murray who had a lot of interesting things to say, beginning with what the team is looking for:

The same as every year – the best player available. We think we’re pretty deep in most positions. At seventeen, if you look back at past drafts, it’s tough to get an impact defenceman at that point, so I’ll let you guys figure that out. I would say that the percentages says that it will be a forward, but maybe a (defenceman) drops. Every year, a good (defenceman) is dropped, as we’ve seen in the last couple (of drafts), so (we’ll take) the best player available.

Goaltenders are not mentioned, so I don’t think we’ll see one taken with the Sens first pick.  As for the quality of the draft:

I don’t think it’s as deep as I’ve been told by you guys. But in saying that, I think the top end is good. I think the first couple of rounds are decent. I think at the top of the first round is very good, obviously. I think it’s a decent draft. This year, you could say there is the three top guys and then there is another five, and then there is another five and then another six.

So that’s four tiers in the first 19 players (with the Sens near the back of the fourth).  Could the Sens make a deal to move up?

There are teams out there that need NHL players – and they’ve stated it. There are teams out there that are very thin. We feel that we are very, very deep. We feel that we have a lot of young depth that we have drafted, we’ve developed that we like a lot, but we’re not shopping them. But, if that scenario came up, we feel comfortable helping another team out with NHL players.

This is a pretty clear distinction that the organisation is willing to give up roster players but not their top prospects.  Tim also talked about the process of deciding on their list (Nichols does not quote him, but his interview is up on the Sens website) and he said that there’s broad consensus through the first few rounds, but beyond that regional scouts make those decisions.  Next up is Pierre Dorion who talked about how long their list is this year:

This year, it’s 1 to 150, I think. And sometimes there are healthy discussions between 78 and 79 because maybe that’s our third round pick or maybe that’s our fourth round pick and we have to be prepared for that scenario.

Sylvain St-Laurent wonders if the 17th overall pick really matters since the player won’t be ready for two or three years.  I think that sentiment is pretty common among journalists who cover hockey, but for fans the answer is obvious: of course it matters.  It effects organisational depth and provides a look at what element will be added to the team down the road.

-There are rumours out that the Sens are looking to draft Samuel Morin in the upcoming draft.

Elliotte Friedman floats the idea that the Sens could pursue Marian Hossa, whose six remaining years on his contract might as well be a NTC (Travis Yost looks at the idea without deciding one way or another, but I just don’t see it happening).

-Speaking of rumours, the Hemsky for Smith deal has been shot down by Bruce Garrioch.

-Here’s my look at Bob McKenzie’s look at the 2013 NHL draft.

Eric T does an excellent job illustrating how quality of competition and player usage can be derived from the minimal stats (compared to the NHL) that the CHL, KHL, and other leagues provide.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Bob McKenzie’s 2013 NHL Draft Rankings

Tonight TSN’s Bob McKenzie has broadcast his list of the top prospects in this year’s draft.  McKenzie has a stellar record for draft predictions (here is last year’s list) and here are his top-30 rankings along with my thoughts.

1. Nathan MacKinnon
2. Seth Jones
3. Jonathan Drouin
4. Aleksander Barkov
5. Elias Lindholm
6. Valeri Nichuskin
7. Sean Monahan
8. Rasmus Ristolainen
9. Darnell Nurse
10. Max Domi
11. Nikita Zadorov
12. Alexander Wennberg
13. Bo Horvat
14. Hunter Shinkaruk
15. Anthony Mantha
16. Mirco Mueller
17. Samuel Morin
18. Curtis Lazar
19. Zachary Fucale
20. Adam Erne
21. Kerby Rychel
22. Frederik Gauthier
23. Ryan Pulock
24. Andre Burakowsky
25. Valentin Zykov
26. Ryan Hartman
27. Robert Hagg
28. Joshua Morrissey
29. Jacob De La Rose
30. Morgan Klimchuk

This year Bob expanded his list to 75 players plus five more “honourable mentions” (given that they weren’t just slotted as #76-#80, I have to assume they are later round selections).  There are no radical selections made as his picks are echoed elsewhere (the closest I can come are Philippe Desrosiers at #41 and Spencer Martin #55, both of which are a little higher than the rest).  When it comes to the first round Bob is an incredibly good barometer of which players will be picked, so while the placement may vary most of the players above will be picked early.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 24th

Hockey’s Future has yet another new writer for the Sens (Brian Fogarty, apparently replacing the one-and-done Jason Chen) and he offers up a draft preview for the team that isn’t so much a prediction as it is a state-of-the-union for the team beforehand.  He offers a brief overview of the organisation (he makes a minor error saying the Sens haven’t drafted Russians or Czech’s under Murray–I believe he means selecting from their respective leagues, given Jakub Culek and Ruslan Bashkirov are both Czech and Russian).  He provides a list of where the Sens pick this year and says the organisational weaknesses are replacing graduating players and adding skill on the blueline.  Let’s hope that Brian lasts a little longer than his predecessors and I look forward to more in depth pieces to come.

Varada takes a look at Ottawa’s blueline (in the midst of which he calls Nick Foligno a good top-six forward, which I hope is tongue-in-cheek) and points out that Patrick Wiercioch played some of the softest minutes in the league this season.  He reasons this means Patty can’t handle much more than that, which is an interesting assumption for a young player.  Can he play tougher minutes and have success?  I have no idea, but this season Paul MacLean didn’t trust that he could.  A better question might be how much do the Sens need Wiercioch to play a lot more tough minutes?  Varada transitions his reasoning into the Sens taking a run at free agent Grant Clitsome, who at age 27 (now 28) had his second full season (is a lockout year a full year?) as an NHL-regular.  Clitsome is an undersized defenseman who plays the left side and while he had a decent year with Winnipeg (44-4-12-16 +10; he was 63-4-13-17 -9 in 11/12) I don’t quite follow the reasoning that he can come to Ottawa and play those tough minutes.  This is an NCAA grad who needed three years before he could crack the Columbus Blue Jacket blueline.  It’s all damning with faint praise and I’m not sure one mediocre half-season is enough to entice Bryan Murray to slot him into the lineup in place of someone else.  I will say this though: he is better than Mike Lundin.

Travis Yost tackles the Ales HemskyZack Smith trade rumours and believes the Sens would throw in another piece to get the Oilers to eat some of Hemsky‘s salary.  He also thinks the trade would hinge on an extension for the Czech winger with Ottawa.  I’d reject the idea behind the trade outright if Murray didn’t have a track record of bringing in broken down veterans.  Hemsky hasn’t played 70+ games since 08-09 and his production has slipped the past two seasons even when healthy.  Senschirp suggests that deal may be part of the puzzle that see’s the Sens grab the Oilers first round draft pick, but until more information comes from more reliable sources it remains entertaining speculation.

-In the same article Yost kicks the tires on the Sens picking up Marc-Andre Bergeron (pass), Jared Spurgeon (Wild would match), and Tom Gilbert (pass), none of which seem realistic or (in the first and third cases) particularly helpful.

Darren M believes the Sens will take Ryan Pulock as their first round selection.  No draft source I’ve seen has him at that position, but Red Line Report is the closest with him at 18th.  Most of the draft guides (six of eight) have him picked prior to the Sens selection.

Jared Crozier believes the Sens will pick Robert Hagg with their first round selection.  The only draft guide that comes close to this is McKeen’s, which has him 19th, while only The Hockey News has him that early (picking him 12th); three of the guides consider him second round material.

Jesse Spector rakes the Leafs over the coals for the Jonathan Bernier trade and really, unless Bernier becomes a great #1 goaltender there’s no question in my mind that it was a bad deal.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 23rd

-Today marks my second anniversary of Eye on the Sens and I thought I’d take a moment to reflect on the fact.  I’ve published 861 articles (including this one) over that time, with the most popular remaining those about the NHL draft and the Sens prospects (either profiles or things like the development camp).  The coverage of prospects in the blogosphere has marginally improved since I started (greatly so in regards to the development camp), but local media remains far behind.  The site’s traffic is largely via search engines or people re-posting on HFboards (along with a solid core of regulars who come here every day–thanks to you folks, especially Sensfan90 and T-Money, who comment most frequently; Lachy buddy, who was here first, wherever you are I hope things are going well).  Here are a few things from the past two years that stand out for me:
-Lyle Richardson (the man behind Spector’s Hockey) coming to the site after I jokingly suggested he was drunk for agreeing with Don Brennan’s roster speculation back in 2012
-I used to chide The Silver Seven‘s Bobby Kelly on some unforced errors in his articles (to which he responded with good humour); he’s become that site’s best poster
-Speaking of chiding, WTYKY‘s Varada did not take kindly to some good-natured ribbing from me back in February when he was discussing the Sens rebuild; I haven’t heard from him since, but both he and WTYKY are well worth checking out so I encourage you all to do so
The 6th Sens Scott got very agitated with me back in November when I took Marc Spector to task for a sloppy opinion piece on the lockout; all three of us (five including the NHL and NHLPA) have managed to survive
Twitter followers were slow to accrue until my friend Brianne went to bat for me–anyone who doesn’t follow her should
-Back in the beginning of the blog The Silver Seven‘s Peter Raaymaker told me he was going to reference the site…and then had to be reminded of the fact a number of times before he did so; may his vowels grow like the mighty oak
-Periodically someone will find my undrafted success stories article and a slew of non-Sens fans will flood the site to check it out, which is gratifying
-The draft remains the most fun thing that I do here; I’m proud of my predictive success and I enjoy the process that goes into it–this year’s addition awaits Bob McKenzie’s list before appearing
-Lastly, there’s no point in a site like this unless people are reading it–thanks to all of you

Back to the usual Sens news:

Nichols echoes the point I made on Wednesday that there’s nothing new about Bryan Murray discussing the possibility of moving up in the draft and I like his point that Murray has taken a page out of Joe Sakic’s playbook:

At the very least, Murray’s following the Colorado Avalanche’s lead in using the mainstream media as a mechanism to let teams know they’re interested and open to making a move.

The organisation has worked hard to downplay the chances of moving up, but I’m sure the speculation will remain ripe well into draft day.

-After missing more than a season and a half due to post-concussion syndrome, Sens prospect Jarrod Maidens (3-82/12) will be ready to play in the OHL next season.  Much like Mark Stone in 2010, Maidens slide far down the draft due to injury–will he pay off in the same way?  It’s hard to say given how a player’s performance after a serious concussion is difficult to predict, but (according to the article) much like Sidney Crosby many of his issues are neck-related and that at least is being treated.

-There are still a few Sens bloggers clamoring for the team to pick up Daniel Briere and I remain mystified why they think his game is suddenly going to improve (even Don Brennan doesn’t like the idea).

Scott Burnside examines the NHL’s goofy approach to officiating and offers the following:

This from an NHL team executive with ties to the NFL competition committee: An NFL referee relays a story from a preseason meeting in which the message to football’s on-field officials was this: Don’t officiate the games like they do in the NHL, where calls change based on the time of season and situation in the game. In other words, enforce the rules regardless of calendar, clock or score.

Maybe the game isn’t the worse for this if players and coaches are on board. But here’s the problem: If it’s OK with coaches and players (and, presumably, the league), it merely adds to the notion for the casual or novice fan that hockey is an impenetrable fortress.

It’s the ultimate in passive aggressiveness to say we don’t want referees to interfere with the game and yet by not interfering referees of course sometimes play an integral role in the outcome.

It would be nice if, someday, fans didn’t have to adjust their sensibilities when watching the playoffs, just as it’d be nice for officials not to reset their meters once the puck drops in the postseason. And it would be nice if, someday, the league weren’t held up as a negative barometer by other pro sports leagues.

I’m not sure what more needs to be said, although articles like this will continue to be produced year after year because internally the NHL prefers this system.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 21st

Scott Cullen offers his off-season plan for the Sens and opens with the following:

While it would be unreasonable for the Senators to expect their goaltender to be as great as they were in 2013, there are reasons for optimism, including the team’s strong possession stats and a league-worst shooting percentage. How does it benefit the Senators to have scored on just 7.0% of their shots? Well, it’s unlikely that they will have the worst shooting percentage again next season, particularly in a season that should include a healthy Spezza and Karlsson. “We need to score more goals,” GM Bryan Murray said at his season-ending press conference. “We have to find a way to create a little more offence and that may mean trying to find a player out there that will do that.” But part of it also will be counting on a couple of the younger players that showed they can play in the league to step up and do a little more with the puck than they were capable of or able to do this year.” He’s right, the Senators do need to find more scoring. The good news is that they are in position to address that need so that they are poised to be a playoff contender for years to come.

It’s a thorough, well-written article with only one tiny error (Kassian was not a waiver pick-up, but was acquired by trade–I can understand why Cullen would assume the former however).  He thinks the Sens need a top-six forward and a top-four defenseman (which is hard to argue with, although patience with younger players is another option).  Cullen believes Jim O’Brien and Cory Conacher are trade bait–I agree with the former, but I’m not sure the Sens would move the latter just after acquiring him.

Ryan Classic rates the Sens forwards (as with the previous articles I’ve ignored players who have departed the organisation): Pageau (A), Alfredsson (A-), Erik Condra (B+), Kyle Turris (B+), Mika Zibanejad (B), Colin Greening (B), Jakob Silfverberg (B), Jason Spezza (B), Milan Michalek (C), Zack Smith (C), Chris Neil (C), Cory Conacher (C), Jim O’Brien (C-), David Dziurzynski (C-), and Matt Kassian (C-).  The grades are reasonable for the most part, although Ryan’s explanation for each player varies considerably in terms of the depth of his analysis.

Travis Yost looks at Bryan Murray’s desire to move up in the draft and suggests (correctly I believe) that the glut of forward prospects is the most likely pool of players he’ll look to in order to acquire a higher draft pick (assuming anyone is willing to trade).  Yost thinks the Sens should look to draft a blueliner if they get a higher pick, but I’m not that attached to the position so long as it’s a great prospect.  It’s worth noting Murray isn’t the only GM trying to move up in the draft (Buffalo’s Darcy Regier is another).

Varada speculates on potential players the Sens could target for trade and opens with David Booth of all people.  He goes from the injury-prone, disappointing forward to Ryan Malone (I don’t see him waiving his NTC for Ottawa), Joe Pavelski (don’t see it; he’s coming off a strong playoff performance and has a reasonable contract), Devin Setoguchi (hard to imagine the Wild giving up on him, especially at his price), Dustin Brown (!), Derrick Brassard (unlikely given that the Rangers just acquired him), Ales Hemsky, Scottie Upshall, Mike Cammalleri, Chris Stewart (hard to believe the Blues would give up on the RFA), Radim Vrbata (has an NTC he won’t waive for Ottawa), Blake Wheeler (another RFA), Bryan Little (RFA), and Alex Burmistrov (not sure how high Murray is on enigmatic Russians these days).  Most of the players on the list seem very unlikely to me, but someone like Hemsky (big price tag, injury prone, on the downside of his career) is a possibility.

Ken Campbell looks at the situation in Phoenix with the Coyotes and believes they will move to Seattle (despite a variety of arena issues that exist there).  Whether that move is for this season or the next remains to be seen, but it’s how things look at the moment.  Presumably the NHL wants a big fat expansion fee payday from Quebec City rather than simply moving an existing team there.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 19th

Bryan Murray talked about potentially making a trade to move up in the draft:

I will call a number more [of GMs] and see if anybody wants to move. There are certain reasons to move fairly high and if you don’t do that, then maybe we’re OK where we are. I have talked and nobody has really gotten back to me. I don’t suspect that anybody will be willing to move down, but you never know. We might have an asset that would address a need. Where we are right now (at No. 17) I don’t think we’ll get the Top 6 guy, but maybe that’s a possibility if we’re patient enough in three or four years. We might be able to get a better player if we want to move up, but you have to be willing to pay a price for that as well.

I don’t think this approach is anything different from Murray’s norm–he’s kicking the tires to see what shakes out, but as he admits it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to move up.  The other thing I’d take from his comments is that he doesn’t see the offensive depth at forward in the short term among the prospects the Sens have now.

Ryan Classic grades the Sens defensemen (I’ve skipped the departed Sergei Gonchar and Mike Lundin): Marc Methot (A), Erik Karlsson (A-), Patrick Wiercioch (B), Chris Phillips (B), Andre Benoit (B-), Eric Gryba (C+), and Jared Cowen (C).  There’s some variance from my own grades, but my only real problem with his assessment is Phillips, who by Ryan’s own standards was as good as Gonchar this season (which makes no sense at all).

-Former Sen and Jeremy Milks/Don Brennan favourite Zenon Konopka may be on his way out of Minnesota as the Wild attempt to move money to be cap compliant for next season.  The gritty center produced zero points in 39 regular season and playoff games.

Hockey’s Future has posted its mock draft for the NHL entry draft (with their first pick apparently off-target already after Joe Sakic said he’s leaning towards not picking Seth Jones) and have Sens selecting Chris Bigras with the 17th overall pick, saying:

Ideally, the Senators want someone who can play both ends well, as current defensive prospects Cody Ceci and Patrick Wiercioch are considered more offensive-minded defensemen. Mirco Mueller, Shea Theodore and Bigras all improved their draft stock, but Bigras has the better two-way game and plays close by in Owen Sound. If there is a forward with good offensive upside that is available with the 17th pick – perhaps Andre Burakowsky, whose father played for the Senators in the 1990’s – then Ottawa may take him. But with a wide cast of forward prospects breaking through this season and in the near future, the more pressing need is defense.

A couple of notes: this has Bigras taken well ahead of every draft resource I’ve seen (the closest is Hockey Prospects who have him at #26), secondly, the Sens drafting philosophy is to take the best player available, which makes HF’s notion of need questionable.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: June 18th

fmblair examines the notion that the Sens have too many centers on their roster and dynamites the notion very effectively:

A quick look at the Boston Bruins’ depth chart reveals that Ottawa’s divisional rival mixed in 7 centres amongst their top-12 forwards. Their counterpart in the Stanley Cup Finals, the Chicago Blackhawks, carried six centres throughout the regular season. While it’s true that each individual player has a different ability to adapt to a new position, there’s certainly precedent for carrying more than 5 centres and playing one or more of them on the wing, I don’t think that Ottawa’s dealing with an unmanageable situation on their hands.

Blair doesn’t think the Sens depth at center is very strong (beyond the five aforementioned) and it’s hard to argue the fact (Stephane Da Costa and Derek Grant would stand as the top two in Binghamton, although the organisation has a number of wingers who have played the position and could slide over).

The Silver Seven has started grading Sens players, beginning with the goaltenders.  I’ll skip the departed Ben Bishop, but they award both Craig Anderson and Robin Lehner A’s, which is on target.  They wisely note that Anderson is unlikely to ever reach this year’s numbers again.

-The Sens have changed the name of their building again (this time in honour of Canadian Tire); no word on whether Canadian Tire money can be used at the arena, but I’m sure many fans are raiding their stashes in the hopes that it can.  Some of us will find the association amusing long term, but for most it will be as meaningful as every other name the arena has had (which is to say, not at all).

-While the paths of former Sens are frequently followed in blogs and elsewhere, less attention gets paid to former B-Sens who have since gone elsewhere.  Here are a few players from the recent past whose subsequent paths I find interesting:

Mike Brodeur (09-11) – given credit for saving the Sens playoff hopes in 09-10, he struggled with injuries the next season (losing his job to Barry Brust) and was allowed to walk.  He spent the bulk of the following season with Las Vegas of the ECHL and then managed only a couple of games this year where he was awful with Orlando (which likely means it’s the end of the line for his pro career)
Geoff Kinrade (09-11) – a NCAA free agent signing the Sens qualified as an RFA, the Calder Cup-winning blueliner went to Europe anyway, joining HC Plzen in the Czech Republic; he moved to the more lucrative Swiss league the following season (with Bern) where he remains
Craig Schira (09-12) – a WHL free agent signing, his play regressed in Binghamton and he was allowed to walk as an RFA; he signed with Frisk Asker in Norway and after dominating that league will now play for HPK in the SM-Liiga
Mat Robinson (09-10) – primarily an Elmira (ECHL) player, he jumped to Sparta Sarpsborg in Norway the following season and converted a dominating performance into playing for Timra in the Allsvenskan in Sweden; despite questionable defensive skills he’s parlayed his European experience into a KHL contract with Dinamo Riga
Rob Klinkhammer (11-12) – a mid-season acquisition meant to help the struggling B-Sens, he spent some time in Ottawa before the season ended and then was allowed to walk.  Phoenix signed him and he translated a strong season in Portland into time with the NHL club, earning himself a one-way deal for next season
Shaun Heshka (11-12) – picked up as an emergency replacement after the unexpected retirement of Lee Sweatt, he was traded to Peoria after only ten games due to his awful play.  This year he wound up winning the SM-Liiga’s best defenseman award which he’s converted into a KHL contract

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)