It is hot and humid in Ottawa and the news is slow.  That said, there are always a few things to comment on, so here we go:

Back in April I talked about the rumours that the Sens might move their AHL-affiliate from Binghamton to Belleville.  Nichols and Ross A both talk about an Ottawa Citizen story where Debbie Preston (Broome County Executive) confirms it–the comments don’t seem that radically different from what was said in May, but it’s added confirmation of the move.  All signs point to the affiliate playing in Belleville for the 2017-18 season, leaving this upcoming year as quite bittersweet for BSens fans.

Randy Lee talked about the Development Camp, but it’s hard to take him seriously when he praises dead weight like Vincent Dunn and Chris Leblanc–“works hard” doesn’t make up for a lack of skill (for those of you who think I’m engaging in hyperbole, I watched Dunn‘s entire season in the ECHL and it wasn’t pretty).  Nichols (whose transcript I’ve linked) talks about Lee trying to light a fire under Thomas Chabot without referencing how badly that gambit turned out with Nick Paul (I don’t think him being named Hardest Worker is a coincidence)–admittedly Nichols doesn’t pay much attention to Binghamton, but some players don’t respond well to the cliched “kick in the butt” the Sens reserve for their skilled players (whereas they bend over backwards to forgive the foibles of their “character” players–as illustrated above).

Speaking of prospects, Callum Fraser writes about Logan Brown–it’s more of a human interest piece than an analytical look at him, but it does bring up how talented his teammates in Windsor are and that’s always something to keep in mind about his numbers (how much is generated by him and how much is due to circumstances).

In the midst of fan questions Ary M compares Fredrik Claesson to Mark Borowiecki, which is the kind of thing that makes you ask: do we need either at the NHL-level?  Hopefully Freddy is better this year and I can get back on board with him, but if his peak performance is ala Borocop it’s not a good sign.

Via the same link NKB tries to explore the struggles of Curtis Lazar, but rather than look at the analytics and compare his to similar players, he looks at draft history based on where he was picked–I’m not sure there’s anything to glean from that route of inquiry (although as a matter of draft trivia it’s fun to do).  Lazar was never a prospect I was excited about and the projections for him (responsible third or fourth liner with no hands) seem on-target (not the sort of thing you need from a first-round pick).  Does he have time to show us more and develop?  Of course, but I wouldn’t hold up much hope for an offensive explosion.

Analysis

So what do you do in mid-July when not much is happening?  Read whatever happens to be available and occasionally see something that raises an eyebrow:

There is no reason to think he [Chris Kelly] won’t fill the role … At 35, Chris Kelly is certainly not a spring chicken anymore. He only played 11 games last season

I’ve deliberately switched around Michaela Schreiter’s response to a reader question because to me she refutes herself–both facts she opens with are reasons to think he might not fulfill his role.  It doesn’t mean that he won’t, but there’s certainly reason for skepticism.

Speaking of free agent signings, Trevor Shackles bemoans the Sens not landing better bargain players without speculating on the relative appeal of signing in Ottawa.  The Sens are both a small market team and suffer from an internal budget, making winning all the more difficult–it’s the sort of situation that appeals most to older players with nothing left to achieve (ahem, Kelly, along with the laundry list of players Murray saddled the team with over the years).

I want to emphasize something Ross A said in passing:

possession metrics aren’t widely used

Sad but true.  When normally sensible people like Elliotte Friedman are still unsure of them you know the league (and its aging fanbase) are a long way away from embracing it.

Andrew writes a long piece about the dumb decision-making by GM’s in free agency.  There’s nothing new here, but he includes some funny lines.  I do think if NHL GM’s were more progressive and believed/embraced analytics most of the silly signings would stop, but we’re a long way from that ever happening.

I don’t usually read comment sections, but I did dive into a thread on The Silver Seven where I learned that (for some) calling your opponents losers was how you win an argument (very Donald Trump, now that I think about it).  I remain amazed that, not just in sports, but in all contexts how so many people seem unwilling (or unable) to engage in discourse.  It’s okay to be wrong or to make mistakes–it happens–it’s part of learning.  You can respect people who disagree with you.  There’s an inclination to say this sort of behaviour comes from younger people, but I know plenty of adults who engage in it too–I find it all bizarre.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

July 13, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Ross A writes a piece asking why the Sens can’t make blockbuster trades (in light of New Jersey stealing Taylor Hall from Edmonton–poor Adam Larsson!).  It’s a somewhat rhetorical question since Bryan Murray has acquired players like Dany Heatley, Kyle Turris, Bobby Ryan, and Dion Phaneuf, but with the exception of the Turris trade you can make arguments that the Sens did not (or will not) “win” these moves.  So what’s the problem?  To me it remains the organisation’s over (or under) evaluation of its own talent.  How many times did the org resist trading Chris Neil, Chris Phillips, Jared Cowen, etc over the years?  How quickly did Murray pull the trigger to send emerging talents like Jakob Silverberg or Ben Bishop, or picks like the ones that became Kyle Palmieri or Vladimir Tarasenko?  I’ve spent years reading comments by the org about various players and their unending love for older players and grinders has hurt their ability to capitalize on assets over and over again.  We can only hope the Dorion regime can start to reverse the trend, although his frustration about the struggles to move the dead weight that was Alex Chiasson and the devalued Patrick Wiercioch suggests the same blindness.

It’s exactly this kind of thinking that James Mirtle addresses in the wake of the aforementioned trade:

The general manager of a Canadian NHL team, in pursuit of the old-school hockey ideal of grit or size or some other intangible, moving key pieces and/or salary-cap space out in order to change the mix. … The Canadian NHL teams have been, by and large, horribly mismanaged. They are, generally speaking, not progressive organizations, not adept at change and not finding ways to outmanoeuvre their competition. Most are well behind in areas such as analytics.

Oh how true it is.  When Mirtle talks about the Canadian teams that are starting to change for the better, Ottawa is not among them–something for fans to keep in mind.

Speaking of the aforementioned discarding pieces, Nichols wonders where the Sens go from here:

as much as I like Pageau as a player, he needs help and to be successful, he needs a smart, two-way forward who can help transition the puck and effectively move it from the defensive zone to the opposition’s end where the Senators could sustain pressure. Condra was good at this and so was Mark Stone, without either player, I don’t see someone on the current roster or within the current system who can step in and fill that role.

I agree that Stone isn’t someone whose performance you could duplicate for the benefit of his former linemates, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t another strong puck possession player available in the system.

Similarly, even though prospects like Ryan Dzingel and Nick Paul saw time down the stretch with the big club, neither player was particularly effective with their play down the stretch. There were moments, sure, but, on the whole, both players could afford to spend more time in the AHL developing their game.

I agree with Nichols about Nick Paul, but as someone who saw a lot of Ryan Dzingel at the AHL-level, there’s nothing left for him to learn there.  Along with Tobias Lindberg he was able to drive possession under Luke Richardson’s stifling regime.  Clearly his tools weren’t very apparent at the NHL-level or Nichols’ wouldn’t be so dismissive of him, but 30 games during a terrible season doesn’t dissuade me from liking him.  What I’m not a fan of are the two veterans Nichols proposes fill in for that spot: the antique Chris Kelly (35 with injury problems) and Lee Stempniak (33)–these are Bryan Murray-type signings, and if I had to pick one I’d take the latter, but I’d pass on both.

Sens prospect Filip Ahl will suit up for the Regina Pats in the WHL during the upcoming season.  It’s a good move for Ahl as he’ll truly be able to showcase himself (Tobias Lindberg made a similar move two seasons ago and that landed him his ELC, a sentiment echoed by the org).

Speaking of prospects, Callum Fraser writes a human-interest piece on Maxime Lajoie that’s worth reading.

I’ve been writing this blog for five years now and I’ve seen the landscape of the Sens blogosphere go through a lot of changes in that time.  As I’ve said before, my favourite bloggers are Nichols and Travis Yost, but I had no idea either read my stuff until this summer (for the former) and just the other day (for the latter).  It’s flattering to know.  Both are better writers than I am and both use analytics more adroitly, so they are delight to read (whether I agree with their specific opinions or not).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 30, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

The 6th Sens’ latest podcast was posted a few days ago and had Elliotte Friedman on and he had a number of things to say of which the following interested me:
-he admitted his inclusion of Ottawa as a possible target to move to Quebec was simply speculation (he apparently doesn’t like to use that word to describe it, but that’s what it is)
-he indicated that he believed Bryan Murray did not want to leave his position, implying he was pushed out internally
-he talked about how he thinks getting a coach like Guy Boucher after his first stint in the NHL is a good thing–he’s learned what works and what doesn’t–and as vague as this is it does fit the limited analysis of coaching success that I’ve seen (as I mentioned when Boucher was hired)
-when asked if he thought Ottawa’s talent was too middling to succeed (so they should rebuild), Friedman countered that he thought given the team-friendly contracts the core players were signed on the organisation has to go for it–push for success–which is certainly the sentiment that management has shared; Friedman thinks the Sens have the talent to win, but thinks their style of play has been the problem (which basically boils down to coaching, although that’s not how he framed it)
-on Mike Hoffman: suggested there’s something we can’t see on the ice that’s caused him to get pushed to the fourth line–my guess is friction with his coaches, assuming that’s true, because as Friedman points out Hoffman has incredibly rare skills in today’s NHL; he also added he thought that Boucher’s prior relationship with Hoffman was part of the reason why he was hired
-he said many NHL teams are reluctant to depend on analytics when it comes to big decisions (he said he didn’t think they paid attention to Corsi, but used other metrics to measure the same thing); he echoed a Tweet from Nate Silver that said “I’m not sure that hockey is that much different than random,” which I think is way too flippant and vague to take seriously

A few other Sens items of note:
-Tim Pattyson was moved from his position as the video coach to oversee analytics for the team; it’s an interesting move about which I have mixed feelings: 1) as a trusted voice in the organisation whatever information he brings to the staff should be respected, but 2) as part of the group-think in Ottawa that’s rejected analytics, what will he bring?  (You can read Nichols thoughts on the move here)
-For the first time in a long time the Sens choose not to bring any top picks to the city (I like the move–don’t create room for disappointment in the fanbase)
-Pierre Dorion seems to have moved away (at least publically) from Bryan Murray’s never ending search for a top-six forward, expressing the belief that the team has nine players who could potentially score 20-goals–unless he has a time machine that takes him back to the 1980s I agree with Nichols that this is a pure flight of fancy, but I do like that he’s pulling back from echoing Murray’s unending desire
-Dorion confirmed that Clarke MacArthur is 100% healthy
-Like Nichols I’m puzzled that the Sens are (publically at least) expressing an interest in bringing back Alex Chiasson

Nichols invited Craig Smith to predict who the Sens might pick at the draft this year (as Smith did for Senschirp last year).  Smith does the right thing by looking at the team’s picks since Tim Murray left and noting the Sens interest in size (something I mentioned not long ago), as well as the limitations in where they draft from (nowhere in Europe outside of Sweden, always someone from the Q, etc).  Unfortunately Smith mentions a pretty terrible piece written by his colleague Ryan Wagman (which Craig must not have re-read as it includes an erroneous contradiction to his own thoughts (on size); as for why I have issues with Wagman I’ll refer you here and here; Ryan tends to Google his own name, so hello Ryan).  After various first round profiles (which seem pointless in context, but without them the piece would be extremely short), he eventually concludes the Sens will pick defenseman Jake Bean (no relation to Sean Bean).  He then suggests four potential players as second-round selections (defenseman Cam Dineen, defenseman Adam Fox, winger Cameron Morrison, and forward Jordan Kyrou).

What do I think about the predictions?  I posted my ultimate 2016 draft list yesterday and certainly all the players should be an option at that time, so they’re reasonable suggestions.  I’ll post a brief Sens draft preview to offer my predictions separately.

Erik Karlsson lost the Norris vote and while I think the decision was wrong I don’t really care–I’m not attached to awards–but for those who want some sympathetic outrage Ross A breaks it all down.

Nick Valentino argues that Sens fans should be patient with Matt O’Connor and not give up after his atrocious rookie season.  He makes the argument his struggles were largely a product of the team in front of him and while he has a point I do think more of an explanation should be offered over why he had so many more problems than the other goaltenders who played in Binghamton (rookie nerves is a possibility).

Former Sens prospect Darren Kramer was tasered and arrested recently.  The story (via the link) is a fascinating display of Kramer‘s apparent lack of common sense, although until the case goes to court (I imagine it will be settled before that) nothing has been proven.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 23, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Randy Lee talked about a bunch of things and I have a few thoughts:
-22 candidates applied for the Binghamton position and he says interviews were conducted (which contradicts my speculation that they’d simply picked Kleinendorst for the usual nostalgia reasons that have guided the Sens for years); with that said, and regardless of who the other top candidate was, they did go with the feel-good decision that’s based on results from five years ago (rather than looking at recent track records, something comically emphasized in an attempt to say it’s not the reason: “Well, the proven track record. I mean, that year, a lot of those young players he put into really sort of bigger roles and these are guys that were really instrumental in helping us win the Calder Cup Championship … We think that winning is a huge part of development“); Nichols (whose transcription is cited) doesn’t actually delve into Kleinendorst’s struggles since leaving Binghamton, but if “winning” was a true criteria he never would have been hired; it’s also odd that the “fit” with Steve Stirling relevant
-Lee provided absolutely no specifics on how Marc Crawford’s “liaison” position in relation to Binghamton will function despite talking about it at length
-On retaining Stirling: “Definitely, he’s one of those glue guys who you can sort of go to. He’s an extremely hard worker;” I don’t think hard work is something unique to Stirling, so my assumption is that the personal relationships he’s built up with the organisation are what’s keeping him around
-Lee gave Francis Perron the usual nonsense we hear him give to every talented player drafted, “If you don’t change your game, we probably wouldn’t sign you … We don’t want you to score goal six or seven to two. We want you to score the goal that brings your team back or be on the ice when you’re protecting the lead.”  The idea that Perron was only scoring meaningless goals before this is absurd and the idea that the Sens somehow have so much goalscoring talent they don’t need more is equally silly, but Lee is all about the hockey jargon of the day before yesterday (as Nichols points out, “It’s kind of weird that hockey’s a sport where less talented individuals are rarely held to the same level of scrutiny as offensive players“–this is more than weird, it’s just dumb)

My overall takeaway from this is what I’ve long thought: Lee isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed and there’s nothing in his comments that suggests any changes from the way things were done under Bryan Murray.

Nichols writes about Elliotte Friedman’s casual inclusion of Ottawa as a possible candidate to move to Quebec City and I think this point is the proper conclusion:

reach an agreement with the NCC on building a new rink at LeBreton Flats, without an agreement in place, the threat of relocation to a city like Quebec City gives the Senators and the NHL exactly what they want: leverage.

This is all it is–just some smoke to try and shake the trees at the NCC.

Senators prospect Robert Baillargeon, whose development has badly stalled at Boston University, has transferred to Arizona State for his senior year.  The move is a good one for Baillargeon as a less cluttered lineup will give him an opportunity to show what he can do.

Ross A indulges in some draft speculation and decides that, for no reason in particular, the Sens will ditch their post-Muckler policy and draft a Russian player.  If it happens I’ll eat my hat (fyi, Ruslan Bashkirov played in the Q which is the only reason Murray let Muckler’s scouts pick him).

Free agent signing: Calgary signed Czech goaltender David Rittich

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 15, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

The hiring of Kurt Kleinendorst as head coach in Binghamton is both surprising and yet the least surprising choice for the AHL side of the franchise.  It’s a feel-good move meant to encourage a deflated fanbase (with two terrible recent seasons and news that the franchise will likely leave), but also the path of least resistance.  Kleinendorst was coaching ERC Ingolstadt in the DEL (Germany) as an mid-season replacement (for Emanuel Viveiros in late November).  He took the team from a 6-10-4 start and went 17-12-3 with a surprise run to the semi-finals of the DEL playoffs.  Elite Prospects shows him as having another season on his contract with Ingolstadt, but if Kleinendorst was really interested in coaching in Europe he’d seek out higher profile (and paying) jobs in the KHL or NLA, something he’s quite obviously avoided until he was left unemployed by Minnesota.

Those of you with long memories will remember I favoured the idea of promoting Kleinendorst to the head coaching job in Ottawa rather than bringing in Paul MacLean.  At the time I argued that one of the main reasons MacLean was chosen instead was because Bryan Murray was familiar with him (from their days in Anaheim) and you can say much the same thing with Kleinendorst’s hire.  Throughout Murray’s tenure the organisation showed a preference for known quantities (eg trading for a burned out Martin Lapointe or all the work done for Luke Richardson).  I thought Dorion might be turning over a new leaf, but with Kleinendorst actually reaching out to the organisation the decision became all too easy for him (the 22-person list the org is touting means nothing more than that–I’ve seen no reports of interviews or actual process).  Was this the right decision?  Let’s look at his record since leaving Binghamton:

2012-13 NCAA Alabama-Huntsville 3-21-1 .125 (fired after the season)
2013-14 AHL Iowa 27-36-13 .441
2014-15 AHL Iowa 2-10-0 .167 (fired)
2015-16 DEL Ingolstadt 17-12-3 .580 (mid-season replacement)

None of this is particularly impressive and if you look at his coaching career outside his Calder Cup win there’s not much to get excited about.  That aside, you can argue results are often more about the lineup than the coach (although following that line of logic too far and a coach is never responsible for anything).  When I looked at coaching success earlier this year it was clear that a good coach can’t make a bad roster better–what they can do is take a middling or good roster and make it achieve its potential.  Oddly, either young inexperienced coaches or experienced coaches with losing histories statistically have the larger and better impact on rosters (with the exception, at the NHL level, of Cup-winning coaches not named Randy Carlyle).  Kleinendorst fits the latter two categories (although the articles I read did not examine Calder Cup winning success), so perhaps despite a non-existent coaching search and an unimpressive coaching record this will work out.  It’s worth keeping in mind that whatever system Kleinendorst prefers he’ll be running Guy Boucher’s system.  In the end I remain dubious but hopeful about the move.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

June 9, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments