-Things are very quiet on the Sens front.  I expect the signing of Shane Prince this week or next, but otherwise things will likely remain quiet until the draft.

-Not surprisingly, Don Brennan wants Zenon Konopka and Matt Carkner resigned.  Scott has fun deconstructing Brennan’s argument for bringing them back and the smart money won’t see either retained.

-As a sign of how slow things are right now, Jared Crozier jumps into Chris Kelly rumour mode just as Bob McKenzie is closing that door with word he’s about to be re-signed by the Bruins.

–John Henkelman looks at the playoff performances by Senator prospects and recent graduates, largely regurgitating stats and inexplicably calling Darren Kramer a defensive prospect.

-Capgeek has their provisional salary up for Jean-Gabriel Pageau (613k).

-Here’s my look at Red Line Report’s 2012 NHL Draft Guide.

June 11, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-The Sens signed Jean-Gabriel Pageau to his ELC yesterday.  Tim Murray said “If he has a big summer this summer and comes to training camp in good shape and looks like he can play in the American league, we’ll give him every opportunity to do that. If it doesn’t look like he’s ready for that level yet, we’ll have to talk to him and go through our options. He’d be a star in (the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League), in my opinion, as an overager (next year). But hopefully, he’s strong enough and good enough to play in the American league for us next year.”  Pageau himself talked about his opportunity, “That’s a great offer they gave me and I very much appreciate it. I think that’s a good motivation for the future and for my summer. I think I have a big training season (ahead) and I’m ready to make the sacrifice to be in the organization earlier.”

-Bryan Murray (in the above link) indicated that Shane Prince would be the last prospect signed.

–Tim Murray was on The Team 1200 yesterday and commented on free agency and Ottawa’s RFA’s.  In respect to the latter he said, “The RFA guys will be after July 1st but certainly we’ve got a strategy with all of them and we’ve got our comparables, as do the agents have their comparables. So they’ll all get done in due course but there’s no cut-off date and they’ll all get done after July 1st.”  Murray talked about their process with UFA’s where they use a 7-point system to assess players.  More interesting to me was his comment about the glut of forwards in the organisation, “it certainly puts us in a great position to trade quantity for quality and you’re not often in that position but as you said, the drafting has gone very well over the past few years. So we’ve had a lot of signings in the last two years that gets a little worrisome with the 50-man roster, reserve list and all that but we’re in a position where if we can plug a hole or trade quantity for quality, we’re quite willing to do it but again, we need a dance partner.”  To me quantity over quality screams Bobby Butler and more for a defenseman.

–Don Brennan keeps his streak of dumb ideas alive with “Chris Phillips could replace Kuba on the number one pairing, alongside Karlsson, and the Senators wouldn’t miss a beat.”  That makes no sense on any level, as Kuba is a better player than Phillips (for the simplest of statistical comparisons, Kuba‘s 32 points this year is 6 more than Phillips‘ career-best in 06-07, while Kuba‘s -1 rating in four years with the Senators is much better than Phillips‘ -29 rating over the same period).

June 7, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Pierre Dorion talked about the draft, “Our mindset is totally different. With the way the 2010-11 season ended, with us trading away a lot of assets, we approached last year as a very big draft. The biggest thing is last year we were picking sixth and this year we’re picking 15th. So you understand the quality of the prospect will not be of the same value. We drafted a lot of skill last year. What we’ve done in last year’s draft and the three previous drafts is we really improved the depth of our prospects. When Bryan and Tim (Murray, assistant GM) took over, we had three players returning in Binghamton (AHL) and a few players in junior we were going to sign, so the cupboard was really bare. We’re dealing from a position of power now when it comes to the quality prospects we have. A number of these players won the Calder Cup last year (in the AHL), a number of them played and contributed on our team this year. For instance, you look at Jared Cowen coming in from Spokane, and we don’t win the Calder Cup without him. So that experience of winning the Calder Cup was a huge factor in him being able to step into the league this year. I think at every position we have what I would call blue-chip prospects. Some are playing right now, some will be playing down the road.”  He added a thought about the NHL combine, “As far as making a big change, no team that I’ve ever worked with has ever done that based on the combine.”

–Ian Altenbaugh ranks Ottawa’s prospects as third best in the NHL.  “Strengths: The Senators have top-end skill at all forward positions led by Mika Zibanejad, Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen, and Shane Prince. Despite graduating five prospects and trading another key one this season, the team still has a group of players who can provide depth at the NHL level including Stephane Da Costa, Jim O’Brien, Andre Petersson, and Robin Lehner. Ottawa has a very young NHL team so the organization has the luxury of giving their future prospects more time to fully develop properly for the NHL.  Weaknesses: The organization has no goaltending prospects behind Robin Lehner at any level of hockey and needs to address this hole. The Senators have a lack of high-end talent on defense with the graduation of Jared Cowen and the trade of David Rundblad, but do have a good quantity with lower potential.  Top 5 Prospects: 1. Mika Zibanejad, C, 2. Robin Lehner, G, 3. Jakob Silfverberg, LW/RW, 4. Stefan Noesen, RW, 5. Mark Stone, RW. Lost to Graduation: Bobby Butler, Erik Condra, Jared Cowen, Kasper Daugavins, Colin Greening. Lost to Trade: David Rundblad. Added: Cole Schneider.”

–Wayne Scanlan writes about the style of hockey which has dominated the playoffs, “clogged shooting lanes, skaters restricted from skating freely, with or without the puck, defencemen latching onto forecheckers like airport security personnel doing a full body search.”  Scanlan hopes that the NHL’s “posse of general managers, coaches, players and officials to discuss the state of the game and how rules are enforced,” which will help change the game.  I have my doubts.  Players are conservative, GM’s are conservative, and coaches are incredibly conservative when it comes to change.  What’s more likely to happen is that the defensive trend will continue for another season or two until ratings and attendance begins to tank, then action will be taken.

-Speaking of bad ratings, the Cup final has dropped 25% from last year and I expect that decline to continue.

-Here’s my look at The Hockey News and Hockey Prospect‘s 2012 NHL Draft Guide.

June 2, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Bruce Garrioch continues to pump out trade rumours by giving us his top-five Sens likely to be traded:
1. Nick Foligno(RFA), “At times, Foligno has left the Senators wanting more and that’s the message Murray delivered during their post-season meeting: If Foligno is going to be back, the team wants him to a be consistent, top two-line [top-line] player. If Murray decides to deal Foligno, there will be plenty of interest. Teams love his potential.”  All Ottawa would get back for Foligno is another player with the same issues–unrealised potential–so I don’t see him moving unless he was signed and part of a package deal.
2. Sergei Gonchar, “He won’t be shopped, but you can be assured Murray will listen to offers. The Senators were pleased with the way Gonchar finished last season. He was a strong, consistent performer.”  If anyone can figure out how this adds up to being moved they are welcome to explain it to me.
3. Robin Lehner, “The club wasn’t thrilled with the way 20-year-old Lehner developed last season in Binghamton. His work ethic was called into question, but he’s showing signs of maturity and that’s a positive for his career.”  I’m not sure if Garrioch means the organisation called his work ethic into question or not, since only the former is relevant.  Regardless, why give up on a young player when all you would get back is another young player with question marks?  It makes no sense, particularly given the great unknown that is Ben Bishop as an NHL-regular.
4. Zack Smith, “If he’s moved, Smith is simply a victim of depth at centre.”  I get the feeling Garrioch was pulling names out of a hat–or else trying to rationalise how to make room for his Chris Kelly rumours.
5. Bobby Butler, “The Senators will likely try to get something done after Butler scored six goals in 56 games this season, but it would be a tough sell for any team to give him a fresh start with that contract attached.”  The only realistic name on the list (as echoed by Lyle Richardson), I don’t think Butler will be as hard to move as Garrioch thinks, given that Matt Gilroy has already been traded twice based on his college career rather than his NHL achievements.

–DaveYoung digs into Nick Foligno‘s numbers to assess if he’s a top-six talent.  He points out that 4 of Foligno‘s 15 goals were of the empty-net variety and that he lead the team in secondary assists ratio.  Dave concludes, “So even in a career year for Nick Foligno, his numbers were skewed by secondary assists and empty net goals. If he doesn’t get those empty netters, and only scores 11 goals on the season, is that what we are looking for from a top-6 player? I don’t think so.”  I also think Foligno is better suited to third-line duty.

–Varada suggests fans overvalue their prospects (true) and that a proven commodity like Rick Nash is worth the salary and flatlined production.  In essence, he suggests the ridiculous package Columbus is looking for is worth it.  I understand Varada’s point, but there are three things to keep in mind here: 1) organisations that constantly trade away their prospects (like Columbus) don’t succeed long term or (usually) at all in the post-lockout era, 2) the numbers Varada sites (“even if Nash “only” scores you 25-30 goals for the next few years and never breaks that 70 point barrier again“) are Milan Michalek numbers–I’m not suggesting they are the same player, but if that’s the production you are going to get for 7.8 million you really are better off waiting and hoping for your prospects to pan out, finally 3) there’s no chance Nash will accept a trade to Ottawa.

-Here’s my look at Future Considersations 2012 NHL Draft Guide.

-Radio ratings are largely meaningless (link), but for local sports fans The Team 1200 sits 13th among Ottawa stations with their numbers declining.  A number of personalities were fired in February (Jim Jerome, Phil Melanson, and Mike Sutherland), and while I take no pleasure in anyone losing their jobs both Jerome and Melanson were understandably first in line to be let go.  I haven’t listened to the station regularly in months, largely because most of the personalities are all cut from the same cloth.  While I love hockey talk, debate doesn’t work well when both parties essentially agree (Jason York and Steve Lloyd spring to mind).

May 30, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

–Bruce Garrioch has a lot to say in his latest article:
1) he’s still beating the drum on a Sergei Gonchar trade (“While the Senators will likely try to deal blueliner Sergei Gonchar — who has one year left at $5.5 million — to make room for Erik Karlsson’s new deal“).  Nichols takes this speculation more seriously than I do and points out the obvious flaw, “As unlikely that it is that they’ll be able to find a taker without inheriting taking back a terrible contract in return, it’s almost just as unlikely that they would move Gonchar knowing that they’re likely to lose Filip Kuba to unrestricted free agency.”  It simply makes no sense for the Sens to lose Gonchar and Kuba when the free agent pool is thin and the Sens lack defensive depth.
2) Garrioch wonders if the Sens would part with either Robin Lehner or Ben Bishop (presumably Gord Wilson would be signed to replace whoever was moved) to land a quality forward.  I have no idea what Bruce was smoking when he came up with this cannard, but with the glut of quality free agent goaltenders and the lack of any goaltending depth in the organisation this simply won’t happen.
3) Columbus GM Scott Howson wanted a roster player, first round pick, Mika Zibanejad, and Mark Stone for Rick Nash.  Yikes!

–Darren Kramer talked about his journey to become a pro, “It was a big question mark for me and I didn’t know which direction I was going to go. It’s a life decision you have to make, but now that I’ve signed, it’s a relief to know this is the path I’ll be taking for the next few years. The intentions are to make the team in Ottawa but in reality, you know there are a lot of equally skilled players competing for spots. So chances are you’re going to have to be spending some times in the minors. Either way, I’ll be working hard to get to the National Hockey League. Everything has to get much better to make the step … the biggest thing is my foot speed and making sure I can keep up to the pro game. The guys you’re going to be playing with are all men now, so you also want to make sure you’re stronger and your body is where you want it to be physically.”  Bryan Murray stated the obvious in saying, “We know both [Kramer and Jakub Culek] will take a little time and development, but the door is very much open now in Binghamton for them to start their pro careers  … hopefully, they will take advantage of (the opportunity).”

–Nichols has typed out an interview between Pierre Dorion and The Team 1200 and provides insightful commentary for it.  There’s no real news, other than the possibility that the Sens might trade up in the draft.

–Ken McKenna presents his prospect awards for the Sens: Mark Stone is the most improved, Jim O’Brien the best defensive prospect, Stefan Noesen the hardest worker, Jakob Silfverberg the prospect of the year, Shane Prince the fastest skater, Michael Sdao the hardest shot, Mark Borowiecki the overachiever, Nikita Filatov the underachiever, Matt Puempel as the high risk/reward, and Derek Grant is his suggested breakout prospect for 2012/13.

-Here’s a look at the ISS 2012 Draft Guide.

May 29, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-The Ottawa Senators have officially announced the signings of Jakub Culek and Darren Kramer.

–Nichols reports that Sens prospect Jean-Gabriel Pageau has signed his ELC.

–Joy Lindsay Tweeted that the Sens will qualify all their RFA’s except Craig Schira (so Nick Foligno, Erik Karlsson, Jim O’Brien, Kaspars Daugavins, Stephane Da Costa, Eric Gryba, and Nikita Filatov).

–Nichols‘ looks at players looking to rebound from last year (Bobby Butler, Peter Regin, and Matt Carkner).  The only positive he can find for Butler is his Corsi rating; he cites Carkner‘s locker room popularity and “skill set” (presumably pugilism) as positives that outweigh wonky knees; Regin doesn’t require much explanation–if he’s healthy he’ll be fine.

–Patrick Wiercioch talked about his throat injury this season, “I probably made the wrong decision lifting my chin up … I wasn’t expecting it and before I knew it I was down on the ice. That’s when the trainers ran in pretty quick. The injury happened Friday and I woke up Monday. I was extremely fortunate and will be forever indebted to my girlfriend for sticking by my side. She was phenomenal through the whole thing. I hope it’s behind me now. That’s why I’m here this summer training, I don’t feel this injury should have any impact on my ability to perform at training camp to push for a spot on the team.”

-Binghamton Senator Bobby Raymond, who played half the year for the team on an AHL contract, won the Kelly Cup (ECHL).

May 25, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

–Joy Lindsay Tweets that the Sens have signed prospect Darren Kramer.  There has been no official confirmation yet.

–Jakub Culek has signed his ELC.

–Luke Richardson will be named the new head coach in Binghamton (ahead of veteran Steve Stirling, the current assistant coach).

–Don Brennan reports there have been no contract talks between the Sens and Jesse Winchester and Zenon Konopka (although it’s still early in that process).  Brennan admits the Sens may want Konopka‘s roster spot for a prospect.

–Colin Greening talked about his season, “I really felt like I could have got to 20 [goals]. It was too bad (I didn’t). I felt like I was a little bit streaky when it came to goals, but I don’t consider myself a points person. My big motto always (has been) you play the right way, do the right things and good things will happen. That might happen with a goal or an assist. But honest to God, I wish I could have scored 20 goals. It was just one of those things … maybe next year. [The season] was a great experience. Overall, I was really happy. It was definitely a transition, especially with the schedule. The AHL schedule is definitely a lot different. I was exposed to the NHL schedule a little bit last year, but to actually go through that first full season was great. You’ve got to get used to that and the grind of the season, but I felt like it was good. I was certainly very honoured to be in the all-star (weekend). I couldn’t have expected that. To be on a line with (Milan) Michalek and (Jason) Spezza for most of the season was great, and to also spend time playing with Alfie … they’re great players. I don’t want to say I was surprised by any of it, but there were some interesting sights along the path.  [The playoffs were] very intense. And just the media attention, too, was definitely a new experience for me. I hadn’t really experienced that much media attention before. When you’re playing and there’s a bunch of analysts dissecting your game 30 seconds after you’re done playing, it’s definitely an interesting experience.”

–Kyle Turris talked about his time in Ottawa, “It’s done wonders. It helps me confidence-wise moving forward and just knowing that I can help this team. And I want to help the team even more next year. I’m going to be working on things (over the summer) and I’ll just keep trying to help the team every night.  The confidence that they’ve given me to play my game and to have confidence in myself to play that game makes a world of difference. It allowed me to play and have fun. I’m looking forward to working out with [Chris] Schwarzy here and getting stronger and coming back to camp next year ready to help the team as much as I can.”  Pierre Dorion said “I think with Kyle, we’ve just seen the tip of the iceberg.”

–Nichols takes a look at Ottawa’s PK (20th in the league) by taking a look at the stats.  He points out that the Sens could be without Filip Kuba (their best player by the PK numbers), Jesse Winchester, Zenon Konopka, Daniel Alfredsson, and Kaspars Daugavins (I view this as very unlikely given that he’s an RFA).  It’s worth looking through the numbers (particularly for Chris Phillips apologists–the Big Rig was on for more powerplay goals against than any other player, despite his shorthanded TOI being cut back this season), but on the whole the only loss the team will really feel is Kuba (Winchester played less than half the season and Konopka was scratched for more than a quarter of the games).  The Sens do have PK blueliners in their system, but they won’t be able to fill a hole that big.

May 23, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

–Dave Young can’t figure out where Peter Regin fits in the Sens depth chart.  It’s a good reminder that all fans should focus on what the organisation says about a player when trying to figure out lineups and projections.  When Regin was re-signed Tim Murray said he was a top-nine forward, so that’s where Regin is going to be–in the top three lines.  This reminds me of a some of the Andre Petersson talk I’ve heard–Bryan Murray told Denis Potvin that he expects Petersson to be Jason Spezza‘s future right winger and those expectations are not reserved for fringe players.

–Nichols wonders if Nick Foligno can provide the necessary scoring to be a second line player.  The article illustrates how Foligno established career highs in many categories and was among league leaders in 5-on-5 scoring.  The problem for Foligno remains consistency, including fading as the season wound down.  The positive for the organisation is the amount of competition internally so that the team isn’t dependent on him reaching another level.

–Jared Crozier wonders which prospect is ready to step up to the next level within the Sens organisation.  He believes there will be a couple of spots open on the roster and suggests the following players could step in:
1. Jared Silfverberg – “The Swedish forward got a sniff in the playoffs, and showed there will be a period of adjustment.  He also showed that he will be more than capable of playing every day, it is only his ability to adapt to a new style of play that may hold him back.”  Crozier is making a modest prediction here, given that the Murray’s have said Silfverberg could have played in the NHL this season.  There’s no question that Silfverberg will be on the roster next season.
2. Mika Zibanejad – “The other Swedish forward probably would have seen action in the playoffs as well if not for a concussion.  Although he is a centre, I think he would be more suited to play the wing in the NHL and that is his best road to a top -6 slot next year.”  It’s up in the air if Zibanejad will start with the Senators next year, but he will get his chance to show he belongs.
3. Mark Stone– “The WHL’s second leading scorer played one playoff game with the Senators, notching a very impressive assist on a Jason Spezza goal.  He has great hands and size, but his skating ability might mean he starts in the minors rather than on the 4th line.” It’s a virtual certainty that Stone starts in the AHL next year.
4.  Shane Prince – “Perhaps the best player in the OHL over the second half of the season, Prince showed that he was a steal in the second round last summer.  A great skater who is a horse with the puck, he needs to add some size to his frame to play in the NHL next season, but should get the opportunity.”  I’ve read a lot of hyperbole about Prince who has yet to be signed, but Crozier is realistic enough to understand that he’ll be sent to Binghamton if he does turn pro.  There are many prospects ahead of Prince on the depth chart at the forward position (Stephane Da Costa and Andre Petersson to name just two), so the road to the NHL won’t be a short one for the 2011 draft pick.
One thing Crozier doesn’t address are the team’s needs on the blueline.  With the likelihood of Filip Kuba, Matt Gilroy, and Matt Carkner gone there are positions to fill with at least one coming internally.

–Milan Michalek and the Czech Republic won bronze at the IIHF World Championships.  None of the other Sens players or prospects placed in the medals.

May 21, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment