Today’s instalment of Sens news [I’ve added the just-released Chicago roster to the Rookie Tournament post, eyeonthesens.wordpress.com/2011/08/30/ottawa-senators-rookie-tournament]:

-The biggest news is the tragic plane crash in Russian carrying the KHL’s Yaroslavl Lokomotiv hockey team (www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=375297).  Former Sens Pavol Demitra and Karel Rachunek are believed to be onboard, as is Sens draft pick Vitali Anikeyenko (3-70 2005).

-Rob Brodie interviewed Paul MacLean for the Sens website (senators.nhl.com/ club/news.htm?id=587748).  Beyond the usual comments, I was intrigued by the following, “And if our team isn’t elite in its fitness level, we’re going to be behind 29 other teams in the league and that message was sent out shortly after I got the job, about my expectations that the players will be at elite (fitness) level. A lot of the players are — I’m not saying that was an issue here in the past.”  It’s an interesting statement–why make it unless there was an issue that needed addressing?  Given that MacLean has said he only made a point of talking to veterans after he was hired, I wonder whose fitness he was thinking about when he made the comment.  I might be making too much out of the quote, but it’s interesting.

-Mike Brophy wrote for Sportsnet looking at all the Canadian teams (www.sportsnet.ca/ hockey/2011/09/05/brophy_canadian_teams/) including Ottawa.  He had this to say, “The Senators are also in rebuilding mode, but do not have the benefit, like the Oilers, of having the top pick in the draft in back-to-back years. Nevertheless, Ottawa does believe youngsters such as Bobby Butler, Colin Greening and Erik Condra have the potential to be solid NHLers. If the Senators are to be viable this season they will definitely need massive contributions from the likes of forwards Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, defenceman Sergei Gonchar and goalie Craig Anderson. Really, though, it could be a long season during which they’ll probably challenge more for the first pick in the 2012 draft than anything else.”  There isn’t much analysis to this, as  Brophy simply echoes comments others have made.

-Ken Warren wrote for Senators Extra about which rookies to watch in Sens camp (senatorsextra.com/main/three-or-four-rookies-to-watch).  Most of the selections are what you’d expect, but he has one surprise, “If there’s one wildcard, it might be Andre Petersson, who has big league hands, if not big league size (5-9, 173 pounds). Petersson is expected to start the season with Binghamton, but for a team which will struggle to score, he could open some eyes.”  For more on Petersson: eyeonthesens.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/senators-player-profile-andre-petersson.

-Travis Yost posted Sportsbook odds for the NHL (www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Travis-Yost/Tuesday-Thoughts-Cowens-Weight-Gain-Vokouns-Other-Offer-and-Odds/134/37932):
Vancouver Canucks +275
Pittsburgh Penguins+275
Washington Capitals+350
Chicago Blackhawks+550
San Jose Sharks+450
Detroit Red Wings+450
Boston Bruins+450
Los Angeles Kings+550
Buffalo Sabres+700
Philadelphia Flyers+700
Tampa Bay Lightning+1000
Montreal Canadiens+1200
New Jersey Devils+1500
Anaheim Ducks+1500
Nashville Predators+1500
Phoenix Coyotes+2000
Calgary Flames+2000
Carolina Hurricanes+2000
St Louis Blues+2000
New York Rangers+2000
Toronto Maple Leafs+2000
Winnipeg Jets +2500
Columbus Blue Jackets+2500
Dallas Stars+2500
Minnesota Wild+3000
Florida Panthers+3500
Colorado Avalanche+3500
Edmonton Oilers+3500
New York Islanders+5000
Ottawa Senators+10000
The bookies, or at least those at Sportsbook, aren’t envisioning a Stanley Cup in Ottawa’s future this year.

September 7, 2011
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Here are a few Senators stories making the rounds.

-Damian Cox has included a bizarre rumour in the Toronto Star (www.thestar.com/ sports/hockey/nhl/article/1049293–unfinished-business-dogs-nhl): “But what does the future hold for Bryan McCabe? His name is linked to any team short on veteran blue-liners (Senators, Islanders).”  Needless to say, unless McCabe wants to play in Binghamton there’s no interest in Ottawa–the Senators have more than enough blueliners.

-Jeff Blay of The Record-Gazette wrote an article about Senators prospect Darren Kramer awhile ago (www.prrecordgazette.com/ ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3240308) and I wanted to quote some of it.  Kramer talks about working on his footspeed while following programs given to him by Spokane (WHL) and Ottawa. In talking about his future, he says “I had to use my strengths in the physical side of the game to progress and fit in somewhere. I think the biggest thing is my character and charisma; bringing positive energy to the rink everyday and making sure everyone is having fun. When it comes to on the ice, it’s energy, energy, energy; helping make sure the guys are fired up and the fans as well, but also staying composed, sticking to my role and making sure my teammates feel safe on the ice. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a fight, but could be a big hit, an energizing play or an unexpected goal when we need it most, so just being a player that knows his role on the team is most important.”  Prior to the draft Dan Sallows of Hockey Scout compared Kramer to Bob Probert (dansallows.com/player-profile-darren-kramer).  While fighting will be what carries Kramer forward in his professional career, if he can improve the other facets of his game he’ll be a true draft steal for the Senators.

-Cam Collingwood has a Senators fantasy preview posted on The Silver Seven (http://www.silversevensens.com/2011/9/5/2398114/senators-2011-12-fantasy-preview#storyjump); he is very positive about Ottawa’s value for fantasy GMs.  His player predictions:
Jason Spezza 76-29-40-69
Erik Karlsson 75-15-34-49
Daniel Alfredsson 72-20-29-49
Bobby Butler 77-23-24-47
Nikita Filatov 73-25-21-46
Milan Michalek 72-23-20-43
Stephane Da Costa 70-14-27-41
Colin Greening 73-19-20-39
Peter Regin 75-12-22-34
David Rundblad 76-11-23-34
Nick Foligno 80-15-18-33
Erik Condra 76-19-14-33
Sergei Gonchar 70-10-22-32
Filip Kuba 71-3-23-26
Chris Neil 80-8-10-18
He also discusses several Senators prospects:
–Rundblad: “Swedish prospects with his experience in the SEL don’t typically spend much time in the AHL, so we’re pretty comfortable he’s NHL-ready and will be in Ottawa for most/all of the season. His situation could be better as he’ll have to defer to Gonchar & Karlsson for PP minutes but assuming Gonchar misses a chunk of time injured (or maybe is traded) then Rundblad would get a boost. Given Ottawa’s youth movement, we think there will be enough minutes for Rundblad to produce right away.”  There are a lot of assumptions in Collingwood’s analysis, but I cannot imagine the rookie out-scoring Gonchar (as indicated above).
–Butler: “There are a few areas of concern here and we may be overrating him and the impact of playing with Spezza but we really like the look of this kid and think he could surprise with a breakout season.”  His fantasy performance is based on his final stretch of NHL games, which to my mind is too small a sample to work from.  Regardless, if he spends an entire season in the top-six he should put up the numbers similar to those suggested.
–Filatov “has a ton of potential but needs to get his head screwed on straight before he can start to realize said potential. He could get an opportunity on one of the top two lines but we have a hard time seeing this guy consistently produce over the course of a full season.”  No reason is provided for why Filatov won’t produce consistently (as he has in the AHL and KHL; his NHL sample is simply too small).  I think it’s safe to say Filatov is the most talented forward added to the lineup, so it’s interesting he isn’t given the highest fantasy value among them.
–Regin “is in danger of being leap-frogged on the depth chart by a few prospects with more upside than what he supplies.”  Collingwood admits he’s not a fan of Regin‘s, but his point projection is reasonable.
–Da Costa: “Given the hype surrounding him he’ll likely make the team out of training camp but the Sens have a number of younger players that will compete against him for ice-time. So he may have to start out in a lesser role and work his way up… a breakout coming from that position will be difficult.”  I think Collingwood’s analysis demonstrates a misunderstanding Da Costa‘s place on the depth chart.  There’s only room for one two-way contract among the forwards and that’s not going to go to Da Costa (who needs time to develop and get stronger).

–Red Line Report‘s pre-season look at the top prospects going into the 2012 draft is out.  Here’s their top-thirty:
1. Nail Yakupov (Sarnia, OHL)
2. Nick Ebert (Windsor, OHL)
3. Ryan Murray (Everett, WHL)
4. Griffin Reinhart (Edmonton, WHL)
5. Henrik Samuelsson (US NTDP, USHL)
6. Mikhail Grigorenko (Quebec, QMJHL)
7. Alex Galchenyuk (Sarnia, OHL)
8. Olli Maatta (London, OHL)
9. Zemgus Girgensons (Dubuque, USHL)
10. Morgan Rielly (Moose Jaw, WHL)
11. Filip Forsberg (Leksand, Sweden)
12. Matt Dumba (Red Deer, WHL)
13. Jacob Trouba (US NTDP, USHL)
14. Martin Frk (Halifax, QMJHL)
15. Sebastian Collberg (Frolunda, Sweden)
16. Jordan Schmaltz (Sioux City, USHL)
17. Derrick Pouliot (Portland, WHL)
18. Slater Koekkoek (Peterborough, OHL)
19. Pontus Aberg (Djurgarden, Sweden)
20. Matia Marcantuoni (Kitchener, OHL)
21. Gianluca Curcuruto (Sault Ste. Marie, OHL)
22. Eric Locke (Barrie, OHL)
23. Chandler Stephenson (Regina, WHL)
24. Brendan Gaunce (Belleville, OHL)
25. Cody Ceci (Ottawa 67s, OHL)
26. Ryan Olsen (Saskatoon, WHL)
27. Luca Ciampini (Halifax, QMJHL)
28. Teuvo Teravainen (Jokerit, Finland)
29. Patrik Machac (Brampton, OHL)
30. Scott Laughton (Oshawa, OHL)

September 5, 2011
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

After being away for a few days, here’s a look at Senators news as the weekend comes to a close:

-The Ottawa Sun‘s Don Brennan interviewed Zenon Konopka about the recent deaths of hockey tough guys (http://www.ottawasun.com/2011/09/02/i-leave-it-at-the-rink).  Konopka‘s most interesting comment was about how he deals with the emotions of the game: “For so many years I took hockey home with me. I mean I took losses hard. You’re not in a great state when you’re doing that. So now I kind of leave it at the rink. I put my headset on right after the game, and I talk about business, how we can improve our business and everything else. For me, I think it’s been a real positive. There’s certain games you just can’t let go, but for the most part, I do let go, I do leave it at the rink.”

–Jason Spezza made similar comments about leaving the game in the rink to The Fan 590‘s Joey Vendetta, albeit from a fatherhood angle (http://www.fan590.com/media.jsp?content=20110902_101639_6992), saying “Fatherhood’s been great — it definitely gets you up earlier in the morning and puts you to bed a little earlier.  Aside from that, every day there’s something new.” And “I want to get my days done earlier and be home earlier and it’s been great, it couldn’t be any better.  Sometimes as an athlete you can get in your own head a little bit too much, and you start having a family and expanding, there’s a lot of other things to life than just hockey and I think it’s probably done me better.”

–McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook is out and The 6th Sens‘ Nichols quotes its predictions (https://eyeonthesens.wordpress.com/2011/09/04/senators-weekend-update/?preview=true&preview_id=1072&preview_nonce=ef24a05156).  McKeen’s joins the chorus that see’s Ottawa finishing last in the Eastern Conference.  Some of their individual player predictions:
Jason Spezza 75-25-35-60
Daniel Alfredsson 68-18-31-49
Erik Karlsson 77-14-33-47
Nikita Filatov 70-13-18-31
Peter Regin 75-10-19-29
David Rundblad 69-4-12-16
McKeen‘s pro scout Gus Katsaros was on The Team 1200 on Friday the 2nd (www.team1200.com/default.asp).  He said, in part, that Ottawa is in a transition phase; the magazine struggled to find a spot for Filatov in the lineup, but believed being in Columbus did a poor job handling him; they’ve very high on Bobby Butler; they believe Regin is a question mark, but they are high on him nonetheless; they see Sergei Gonchar playing his off-side; they see Ottawa as very young, very green, and making a lot of mistakes.  I’ll add more analysis when I have a chance to read the issue myself, but it is interesting food for thought.

The next major event in Sens land is the rookie tournament, with the team practicing September 9th beforehand.  All three rookie games are being broadcast this year on Rogers (http://www.rogerstv.com/page.aspx?lid=1&rid=4).

September 4, 2011
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

On June 13th Bryan Murray announced the hiring of Paul MacLean as the team’s new coach.  MacLean is Murray’s fourth coach (excluding himself) since becoming GM in 2007.  This is the first coach since Craig Hartsburg (in 2008) who was hired after the usual process of interviews.  Fans and the team have to hope the process has worked.

MacLean was an elite scorer during his NHL career (673 points in 719 games over 10 seasons) before entering the coaching ranks in 1993.  Here’s a brief outline of his performance as a head coach:

1993-94 IHL (Peoria) 51-24-6; lost 1st round
1994-95 IHL (Peoria) 51-19-11; lost 2nd round
1995-96 IHL (Peoria) 39-38-5; lost 2nd round*
1996-97 (Don Hay’s assistant coach in Phoenix)
1997-98 IHL (Kansas) 41-29-12; lost 2nd round
1998-99 IHL (Kansas) 44-31-7; lost 1st round
1999-00 IHL (Kansas) 36-37-9; missed playoffs
2000-01 UHL (Quad City) 55-12-7; Won Colonial Cup
2001-02 UHL (Quad City) 57-15-2; lost 2nd round
2003-11 (Mike Babcock’s assistant coach in Anaheim and Detroit)
* the IHL franchise moved to San Antonio afterward; Mark Reeds was an assistant coach with MacLean for all three seasons (as he will be in Ottawa this year)

Neither the IHL nor UHL exist anymore (they merged with the Central Hockey League (CHL) to form a professional league that’s below the ECHL).  When MacLean coached in the IHL was considered on par with the AHL and was still used as a location for NHL farm systems.  Looking at MacLean’s resume what jumps out to me is: 1) he hasn’t been a head coach in nearly 10 years, 2) he made the playoffs in nearly every season he coached (7 out of 8), 3) he did not enjoy much playoff success.  Needless to say, MacLean wasn’t hired because of the Colonial Cup he won in 2001.

When he was hired Murray talked about the importance of communication and being a winner, “I felt Paul fit the profile (of what the team needed). He’d been a player, been a head coach, been an assistant coach in the National Hockey League. He’s been a winner everywhere he’s been. … I think he brings energy, experience, expertise and people skills, most importantly.” And “He’s got that presence about him of a guy that can take charge” (msn.foxsports.com/ nhl/story/report-ottawa-senators-hire-Paul-MacLean-as-coach-061311).  MacLean himself talked both about communication and his system, “I think it’s important in the NHL today that the coach and the players communicate. Communication with the players is important in empowering them and having them invest in what you’re trying to do and what you’re trying to accomplish. It’s not me against them, it’s us – the Ottawa Senators – against the rest of the league and we have to work together in order to accomplish that goal.” And “I don’t know if we’re going to play the Red Wing way, but we’re going to play a game that’s going to be played with some pace and tempo. You’ve got to play 200 feet, you’ve got to be able to skate, and if you have the puck, you can dictate what’s going on.”

Bruce Garrioch talked to a couple of league executives who had this to say: “Paul MacLean deserves the chance.  He’s paid his dues. He’s won at every level. Now, it’s time to find out whether he can coach at this level”, And “He’s won everywhere — including as an assistant. He’s very knowledgeable and he’s very well respected.  He took his time before looking for a head coaching job. He’ll be able to relate to the players. I’m not sure whether he can be the hard guy, but this is probably what they need right now: A teacher and a more patient guy” (www.ottawasun.com/2011/06/13/ report-maclean-new-sens-coach).

My belief is that MacLean was hired primarily because Murray is familiar with him (they worked together in Anaheim) and he admires Detroit’s success in the league.  I don’t know what to expect from MacLean this year; he’s never been an NHL head coach and is long removed from his last coaching gig.  The good thing for both MacLean and the organisation is that there is no pressure to succeed this year, so there’s time for him to find his stride.

August 30, 2011
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

It’s early, but predictions about the upcoming season have started to come out and I thought I’d take a look at the reasoning behind them. [August 30th update: I’ve incorporate Jared Crozier’s new Senshot article.]

The Hockey News predicts Ottawa will finish 15th in the East, saying “After finishing second-last in NHL scoring in 2010-11, it’s clear the Senators have fallen long and hard from their days as a league powerhouse. The team started down the rebuild road and traded away many veterans, but still have Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson to hang their hat on. Ottawa has some tantalizing talent on its way up, namely Erik Karlsson on the blueline, but the future isn’t here yet” (http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/ 41527-The-Hockey-News-201112-NHL-regular-season-predictions-No-8.html).  There isn’t enough analysis here to judge THN’s opinion, but as you will read below the sentiment is a common theme.

The basement destination is also the opinion of Daniel Friedman’s article in The Bleacher Report (bleacherreport.com/articles/761468-if-the-2011-12-nhl-season-began-tomorrow-early-predictions#/articles/761468-if-the-2011-12-nhl-season-began-tomorrow-early-predictions/page/21), which says in part “Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson are still around, but even those two forwards have had their setbacks. Alfredsson’s age is really starting to affect his game, and the Swedish veteran (who turns 39 in December) only managed 31 points in 2010-11. Granted, he missed 28 games last year, but even had he played in those contests, his projected stats wouldn’t even approach the levels we’ve seen him reach for the majority of his NHL career. There’s cause for concern regarding Spezza as well. Despite averaging nearly 80 points between 2005-06 and 2008-09, he’s notched just 57 points and has missed at least 20 games in each of the last two seasons. No doubt, the dip in offensive production could be a byproduct of the lack of surrounding talent, but the injuries and games missed are becoming an issue. Beyond Spezza and Alfredsson, the cupboard is rather bare. Nikita Filatov, who was acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets, could prove to be a steal for the Senators if he can produce. The coaching staff and front office might tell you differently, but I think there’s little to no chance he doesn’t make the team out of training camp. Nick Foligno, Peter Regin and Milan Michalek should provide some secondary scoring, but likely too little to make Ottawa a competitive team. Erik Condra had 11 points in 26 games for the Senators last year, and will probably be with the team full-time in 2011-12. The Sens also picked up free agent Zenon Konopka, who will become a fan favorite in Ottawa for his competitive spirit, prowess in the faceoff circle and his willingness to stand up for his fellow teammates. Mika Zibanejad, the team’s top pick in this summer’s draft, will get a shot at the big club during training camp, and perhaps even a nine-game stint in the pros at the start of the regular season, but he’s likely a year or two away. At least things are looking bright on defense. Sergei Gonchar might be a massive disappointment, but youngster Erik Karlsson had 4 points last year, and there are more on the way. It’s not inconceivable to think that Jared Cowen and David Rundblad could make the team. Chris Phillips and Filip Kuba may not be what they once were, but they still give the Sens a veteran presence and some sense of stability. The biggest question mark is between the pipes. Craig Anderson is the front-runner to become the starter, but he’s been inconsistent. Alex Auld and Robin Lehner will compete for the right to serve as Anderson’s backup. Ottawa’s season isn’t looking too bright. Talent-wise, this is definitely the worst team in the conference.”

I give Friedman a pass on the Karlsson‘s point total (clearly a typo), but there are problems with his analysis.  He doesn’t address (or doesn’t know) that Alfredsson was playing with his injury all season; Spezza‘s back problems are a problem, but Friedman is blasé about him continuing to average a point per game; his sentiment about Ottawa’s organisational depth is off-base; Condra‘s contract guarantees his presence on the roster; there’s no question that Auld will be the team’s backup.  I think Friedman makes good points about Filatov and Anderson, and his overall prediction is still in line with the general sentiment.

Joining the chorus of the Sens finishing last is Senators Extra (senatorsextra.com/ main/eastern-conference-preview/), saying “The Senators should be better this season than they were last, but the rest of the conference isn’t getting worse. That’s why I see them slipping all the way to the basement. That wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world — a top-three draft pick who could step in next season would speed the rebuild along. Could the Senators move up two, three, even four spots? I’d never rule it out. I’ve always been a big fan of Craig Anderson’s game, and we all saw what he did for Colorado a couple of seasons ago.”  There’s not much content to the prediction, so I can’t specifically critique it.

Jared Crozier’s five-part article on how the Sens will do for Senshot (beginning here, http://senshot.com/2011/08/21/part-1-will-the-senators-be-better-than-boston-buffalo-or-carolina/) now has a preface bookending his predictions (senshot.com/2011/08/29/why-the-senators-will-be-better-in-2011-12/).  Briefly, these are his points (which I’ll address as I go through them):

1. The coaching will be better
This remains to be seen.  Paul MacLean hasn’t been a head coach since 2002 and has never run an NHL team.
2. The goaltending will be better
It’s hard to imagine it could be as bad, but let’s not forget Anderson‘s numbers were similar to Elliott‘s when he was traded.
3. The blueline will be better
The team lost only one regular from last year (Chris Campoli); while I do think it will be better, it’s important to remember it hasn’t changed that much.
4. Alfredsson will be healthy
True, but we don’t know exactly how the surgery will effect Alfredsson (has the problem been completely corrected and how will he be effected by the long layoff?).
5. Spezza will be healthy
Keep in mind he’s missed at least 20 games two years in a row because of back problems.
6. They will be buoyed by youthful enthusiasm
This is a little sanguine; the Atlanta Thrashers were buoyed all the way to Winnipeg.
7. The team will be more motivated
I believe professionals are always motivated (for those who listen to The Team 1200, this is something Jason York says repeatedly), but I do agree there will be less pressure on the team this season which usually helps performance
8. The team will have less injury woes
That seems likely, but it can’t be taken for granted.

Crozier’s arguments about an improved team are interesting, but they aren’t directly related to the comparison’s he makes to other teams.  He argues that Ottawa is better than Carolina, Florida, Toronto, the Islanders, and Winnipeg, with a 50-50 shot at being better than Buffalo and New Jersey.  While the article gives a range of potential positions where Ottawa will finish, I simply assumed from his analysis that they will be better than either Buffalo or the Devils and would end in 9th if he is correct.  This is the most optimistic of the early predictions I’ve seen.  In terms of specific’s, Crozier dislikes Carolina’s moves; he believes Florida’s goaltending and lack of top-end talent puts them behind Ottawa; he isn’t a fan of New Jersey’s blueline or aging goaltending; he likes Toronto, but believes their goaltending is a question mark; he doesn’t like Winnipeg’s forward depth.

Jeff Frank of The Ottawa Sun looks at the Northeast division (www.ottawasun.com/ 2011/08/29/burning-northeast-division-questions).  Oddly, Frank spends the least amount of space on the Senators, saying “The Senators will be banking on a number of young guns this season but there are still a few holdovers from the team that reached the 2006-07 Stanley Cup Finals. Injuries and poor play weighed heavily on the Sens last year as Jason Spezza missed 20 games and Daniel Alfredsson played in just 54 with only 31 points. Moreover, defenseman Chris Phillips, who was a plus 36 the year the Senators lost to Anaheim in the Finals, was a minus 35 last year, good for last in the entire NHL. If Ottawa is to avoid a last place finish in the Eastern Conference, all three players must not only remain healthy but improve from dreadful campaigns. BOLD PREDICTION – Nikita Filatov receives top-line minutes and scores 20 goals.”  There’s no doubt the veterans need bounce-back seasons, but his sentiments aren’t really analysis (or even informed opinion; for instance, does Frank think they will have better seasons?).

There are more predictions coming and I’ll continue to examine them as they come in.

August 28, 2011
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 7 Comments