I went over the BSens player usage the other day, but there was no sign of any awareness of that dynamic in the team tonight, which carried on its season-long trend of being outshot and playing not to lose. While they came out with two-points, they gave up a point to their division rival by surrendering two separate one-goal leads. Before I get into more specific comments, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 25-33
PP: 1-3
PK: 2-3
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond got the start (his first since Colorado returned him) and was his usual solid self (he made six key saves by my count); Chris Driedger actually backed up, with Danny Taylor scratched (Marcus Hogberg remains in Brampton).

The Opposition
Laval came into the game 9-7-5, having beat the BSens in both their previous meetings. The Rocket are a very talented, but porous team; they didn’t dominate as much as in the two October matches, but still held the edge both in possession and offensive pressure.

The Goals
1. White scores on a breakaway
2. Laval – Paul gets caught puck-watching and doesn’t take his man who scores top shelf from just above the dot
3. PP O’Brien one-timer off the Lajoie pass (this is the BSens first PP goal in five games); the set-up is exactly what Lajoie and Jaros used to do earlier in the season
4. Laval PP – low shot through a screen from just above the dot
5. Rodewald on the wrap around (great individual effort in the midst of a Laval line change)

Scoring chances (14): Paul (x3), O’Brien (x3), Rodewald (x2), Gagne (x2), White, Werek, Perron, Englund

This is the most scoring chances they’ve had since they last played Laval, but is less an indication of how dangerous they were and more about how loose the Rocket defense is even when granting limited opportunities.

The Roster
O’Brien returned from injury with Ciampini drawing the short straw (rather than the completely useless Randell, who is now 0-20 in points vs goaltenders). We also saw Lajoie return to the lineup as Chabot was called up to Ottawa.

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Paul-Reinhart-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-White
Werek-Chlapik-Randell
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Murray

The ineffective top line returns (now with 3 goals in 9 games), as all the lines from the 5-1 loss to Toronto were tweaked (it’s difficult to say how much of that was actual adjustment and how much a forced tweak via the return of O’Brien)–pretty bizarre combinations on the whole, as the team’s two-top scorers entering the game lined up with Randell on the fourth line and were not on either PP unit. Needless to say, none of these combinations were particularly effective.

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-O’Brien-Rodewald/Lajoie-White (scored)
Paul-Reinhart-Gagne/Murray-Jaros
Penalty Kill
Paul-Kelly/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-O’Brien/Englund-Jaros
Kelly-Rodewald/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer (scored on)
Kelly-White/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-O’Brien/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
OT
Chlapik-Paul/Englund (Rodewald jumped on for Paul in the midst of the first line change and scored)

The PP was tweaked with O’Brien’s return and Chabot’s departure; Lajoie made a positive impact on the first unit and was responsible for its goal (but it’s not a good combination in general); the second unit was completely ineffective. Unlike the game against Toronto, Kelly played a lot on the PK, but in combinations not used before. Also of note: Randell was removed from the PK.

Notable Plays
Murray almost own-goaled by batting at the puck in front of his net (first); he then couldn’t get a shot off right in front of the net (nice passing play by White-Perron to get him the puck; also first period); Burgdoerfer turnover lead to a scoring chance against (bizarre play from the blueline where he fired a pass along the boards to no one with Werek right in front of him; also first period); McCormick shot the puck over an empty net (first); Jaros hit the post (first); Burgdoerfer hit the crossbar (first). McCormick hit the crossbar (second). The first period, as you can see, was the most eventful from a Belleville point of view.

Player Notes
Murray: benefited from having Lajoie do most of the puck-work for him, but on his own didn’t accomplish much
Burgdoerfer: normal number of catastrophic turnovers from him (three) and, in general, pretty typical performance
Sieloff: solid if unremarkable game
Jaros: finally seemed himself, fully recovered; made some nice plays offensively (besides the post he hit) and defensively (particularly in the second); took a stick in the face early but was fine
Englund: had a bonafide chance to win the game in overtime in the slot, otherwise routine safe game from him
Lajoie: also seemed fully healthy for the first time since his injury; lot’s of great puck-movement and simple plays
Randell: what does this guy do for the team, really? Despite a mountain of opportunities he has no points through 20 games (ignoring his empty-netter); he’s not particularly physical, hasn’t fought much…why Kleinendorst won’t bench him I really don’t know
Werek: the team’s top-scorer barely played as he was buried on the fourth line
Chlapik: it’s the same story as Werek, except he was put on the ice in OT and he and Paul dominated in that context
Kelly: his shortcomings offensively held back his linemates
White: other than his individual effort to get a goal still hasn’t been given an effective niche in the lineup
Perron: bit of a mixed bag offensively/defensively, but mostly positive given the limitations of the line he was on (no special teams time for him, which is quite rare)
Reinhart: no idea why he’s on the second line as he was completely invisible
Paul: played a better game than against the Marlies, but seeing him with Chlapik I wonder if we’ll see that combination subsequently
Rodewald: not a great fit with Reinhart as his center, but a great effort on the winner
Gagne: speaking of poor fits, his line continues to accomplish nothing, but as usual he had a couple of exciting offensive bursts unrelated to his linemates
O’Brien: Jimothy picked up a goal on his return, so good for him; it was a solid effort overall
McCormick: he’s now played 20 games and only scored 2 goals against goaltenders; the assists are nice, but he has to be better

The Sens are lucky to come out of this with two points and the longer their struggles go on the more the finger has to be pointed at the coaching staff. While the overall talent on the team isn’t particularly high, they could be used more effectively than they are.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 29, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

However you assess the talent in Belleville the one thing that’s within the control of the organisation is how to use that talent. I’ve complained about some of the decisions before, but it’s worth going through the numbers so that you can get a sense of who is or isn’t performing given that usage. We don’t have things like TOI recorded in the AHL, but we do have lineups and while adjustments happen in game at the least they tell us a coach’s intentions and how he adapts the lineup from game-to-game in hopes of better results. I have excluded players who have played less than 10 games–anyone eager for Chris DiDomenico’s information etc let me know in the comments. I’m also addressing defensemen differently since the order in which Kleinendorst’s combos are listed rarely means anything other than the third pairing. Below I’ve listed players in order of who has played most on the top lines (21 total games; 1st/2nd/3rd/4th):

Games Played by Line
McCormick/O’Brien 13/5/1/0
Gagne 8/4/8/1
Paul 6/7/0/0
Werek 5/9/4/0
Rodewald 4/7/0/0
White 3/8/1/0
Chlapik 2/5/10/3
Perron 0/4/13/2
Reinhart 0/4/7/9
Ciampini 0/0/7/10
Randell 0/0/6/13
Dunn 0/0/0/11

So what does this mean? It illustrates who Kleinendorst trusts–not to score, as we’ll get into, but to play responsibly–to play safe. For over two-thirds of this season the tandem of Max McCormick and Jim O’Brien have been on the top line–both players best known for their defensive play, which isn’t conducive to consistent or regular production (they are, in fact, producing at the same rate they have previously as second or third-line players). On the flip side of this are two offensively gifted prospects, Filip Chlapik and Francis Perron. Each has spent more than half the season playing third-line minutes despite their offensive gifts. I’ve picked these four for a very deliberate reason, as given the rather large difference in ice time between them here’s their production thus far this season:

Chlapik 20-3-8-11 4 PPP
O’Brien 19-6-4-10 1 PPP
McCormick 19-3-7-10 2 PPP 1 SHP 2 empty-net points
Perron 19-2-8-10 2 PPP 1 empty-net point

Virtually identical production, which shouldn’t be the case given the ice time disparity. The coaching staff aren’t idiots and recognise they are surrendering offense in doing this, but why then put the vets on the top powerplay unit as well (which continues to struggle)? It’s puzzling to say the least.

What about even-strength scoring–who is doing it–both collecting the points and on-ice for the production? The raw numbers first (again, excluding those who’ve played less than 10 games; games with points noted first; I’ve excluded empty-net production; in brackets are the on-ice per game averages):

Rodewald 11-8 10 OI (0.91)*
Paul 13-4 10 OI (0.77)
Werek 18-10 12 OI (0.66)
O’Brien 19-9 12 OI (0.63)
Gagne 21-8 12 OI (0.57)
Perron 19-7 11 OI (0.57)
McCormick 19-5 11 OI (0.57)
Chlapik 20-7 11 OI (0.55)
Reinhart 20-7 10 OI (0.50)
White 12-5 6 OI (0.50)
Ciampini 17-6 7 OI (0.41)
Dunn 11-3 4 OI (0.36)
Randell 19-0 3 OI (0.16)

*amusingly Rodewald was given an additional three assists in Belleville’s 5-2 win over Charlotte after the game was completed, something I didn’t realise until I was putting this together

A few things stand out–on a per-game basis both Nick Paul and Jack Rodewald are way ahead of the curve, albeit Paul’s actual point totals are poor and both are on the low end of games played. Beyond that it’s fairly even across the board, which does not correspond to how ice time is being handed out. White’s tallies are below expectations and Randell’s indicate he shouldn’t be dressing.

These are all in isolation however–it’s a team game, there are linemates, so what about lines? Which lines are producing? This was fascinating to dive into. I’ve thrown out DiDomenico’s data (for obvious reasons), as well as the empty-net goals (the BSens have three), but what’s interesting is that of the 33 5-on-5 goals scored, 9 (or 27%) are by lines that have never been formerly been put together and virtually none of the scoring lines have been kept together for more than two or three games. Roster movement plays a part in this, but only a part. I’ve organised this list by how often the line has been in the lineup card:

McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne – 8 games, 3 goals (0.37)
Perron-Chlapik-Gagne – 3 games, 3 goals (1.00)
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald – 3 games, 2 goals (0.66)
Werek-Chlapik-Perron – 3 games, 1 goal (0.33)
Werek-O’Brien-Sexton – 2 games, 2 goals (1.00)
Werek-Paul-Rodewald – 2 games, 1 goal (0.50)
Werek-Paul-O’Brien – 2 games, 1 goal (0.50)
Werek-Chlapik-White – 2 games, 1 goal (0.50)
Perron-Chlapik-White – 2 games, 1 goal (0.50)
Dunn-Reinhart-Randell – 2 games, 1 goal (0.50)

And that’s it. No other scoring line has played together for more than a single game (this despite the fact that Paul-White-Rodewald scored three times or that McCormick-Chlapik-Ciampini scored twice, both in single-game combinations)–that doesn’t mean they haven’t occasionally been formulated again within a game, but it’s awfully strange to stick with something that isn’t producing (the first line listed for example) and move away from ones that are.

What about duos–which pairs are most productive (these are on-ice for goals rather than points, compared to GP together)?

White-Paul 3/2 (1.5)
McCormick-Werek 3/2 (1.5)
Rodewald-Paul 6/5 (1.2)
Chlapik-Gagne 4/4 (1.0)
Werek-Rodewald 4/4 (1.0)
White-Rodewald 3/3 (1.0)
Chlapik-Perron 7/8 (0.87)
Reinhart-Werek 3/4 (0.75)
Perron-Gagne 5/8 (0.62)
O’Brien-Werek 3/6 (0.5)
Reinhart-Ciampini 3/7 (0.42)
O’Brien-Gagne 3/9 (0.33)
McCormick-Gagne 3/10 (0.3)

The nightmarish numbers at the bottom illustrate the problems of putting three shooters together. The headscratcher in all of this is: why isn’t there more follow through on this and other results? It’s not rational for a team that often struggles to score (2 or fewer goals in 11 of 21 games) to avoid combinations that work. Why not play McCormick with either Werek or Chlapik (or both), where most of his production has come from, rather than sticking him with O’Brien? Why not put the Paul-White-Rodewald line back together to see if they can replicate their success? Etc–it’s the kind of thing that can make you crazy.

There are similar signs of conservatism, of playing it safe, on the blueline. With the injuries and call-ups there have been a bevvy of combinations, but we’ll look first at individual numbers and then combinations (I’ve excluded Harpur because he’s only played in 4 games; the on-ice per-game ratio is in brackets):

Chabot 13-7 11 OI (0.8)
Burgdoerfer 21-6 15 OI (0.7)
Murray 14-6 9 OI (0.6)
Sieloff 21-3 13 OI (0.6)
Jaros 14-5 7 OI (0.5)
Lajoie 11-4 6 OI (0.5)
Englund 21-2 11 OI (0.5)
Erkamps 11-1 6 OI (0.5)

In terms of ratios it’s fairly close other than Chabot. What about pairings? Once again we see a lot of the 5-on-5 production comes from little used combinations (8 of 33, or 24%). There’s also a reluctance to pair offensive blueliners together:

Sieloff-Burgdoerfer 12 games, 5 OI goals (0.41)
Englund-Jaros 9 games, 4 OI goals (0.44)
Chabot-Burgdoerfer 6 games, 6 OI goals (1.0)
Murray-Erkamps 5 games, 4 OI goals (0.80)
Lajoie-Jaros 4 games, 1 OI goal (0.25)
Chabot-Englund 4 games, 1 OI goal (0.25)
Sieloff-Englund 4 games, 1 OI goal (0.25)
Lajoie-Murray 2 games, 1 OI goal (0.50)
Chabot-Murray 2 games, 1 OI goal (0.50)

Everything else is in single games; the most productive non-unit is oddly Englund-Burgdoerfer (3 OI), despite neither being particularly gifted offensively. Sieloff-Harpur, incidentally, played 4 games together (4 OI). Offensive combos like Chabot-Jaros and Lajoie-Burgdoerfer, despite success, simply aren’t used except on the powerplay or in desperate circumstances. One particular oddity is that Erkamps has proven a productive partner with virtually everyone except Englund.

What we can hope for through all of this is a change in mindset where Kleinendorst unglues his favourite veterans from the top-line and let’s the lineup breath. I’m not sure that will actually happen, but I can’t see a positive change unless he does.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 28, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

The BSens lost back-to-back games against the talented Marlies over the weekend, something that should cause considerable concern if Randy Lee and the other people involved with the team want them to make the playoffs (something I think is likely). The addition of a broken down Chris Kelly didn’t help, nor the returns from Ottawa in the second game, but before I get into more specifics we’ll go game-by-game and start with the basics (the box score):
Shots: 27-32
PP: 0-2
PK: 3-4
Goaltender: Danny Taylor got the start and despite putting up good numbers was a beneficiary of his team playing two very good periods and not forcing him to make many key saves (I had him at 3 key saves); Chris Driedger backed him up.

The Opposition
Toronto is a very good team with an excellent record, but for two periods they played Belleville’s game–if you didn’t know any better you’d think they were evenly matched. The Marlies made adjustments and in the third and outshot the BSens 16-4 with that territorial domination continuing for the most part in the second game.

The Goals
1. Toronto PP – Perron gets puck-watching allowing the open man to bang in a rebound
2. Marlies leave the puck for the wrong team and Reinhart finds a wide open Chlapik who makes no mistake in the slot
Taylor was easily beat by both shooters in the shootout, as for the BSens:
Reinhart – stopped going 5-hole
Gagne – tries to deke and gets pokechecked

Scoring chances (7): Kelly (x2), Chlapik, Murray, Reinhart, Ciampini, Rodewald

The Roster
Chris Kelly was signed to a PTO (he’d been skating in Ottawa since getting cut by Edmonton), while Maxime Lajoie returned from injury and Justin Vaive dressed (for whatever reason); scratched was Vincent Dunn (earmarked for Brampton if the roster remains stable) and Macoy Erkamps (who was sent to Brampton subsequently); Jim O’Brien was out after taking a stick to the face in the previous game (joining Blunden, Flanagan, and Sexton on the injured side).

The Lines
McCormick-White-Gagne
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-Randell
Vaive-Chlapik-Ciampini
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Lajoie-Murray

If you’re asking why McCormick is still on the first line then I refer you to him still being on the first powerplay unit, which is to say: who knows? Luke Richardson used to do the same on the PP, but at least didn’t shove him into the top line this often. Chlapik on the fourth line is frustrating, but is not the first time Kleinendorst has done this to him (he also was in the 7-4 loss to Springfield; and no, scoring a goal didn’t change things for him the next game). Early to midway through the second Chlapik replaced Randell on the third line, but was slid back to the fourth in the third.

Special Teams
Power Play
McCormick-White-Gagne/Perron-Jaros
Werek-Chlapik-Rodewald/Murray-Lajoie
Penalty Kill
Perron-McCormick/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer (scored on)
Kelly-McCormick/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Kelly-McCormick/Sieloff-Englund
Kelly-McCormick/Englund-Burgdoerfer
White-Randell/Englund-Burgdoerfer
White-Randell/Sieloff-Jaros
White-Randell/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Perron-Rodewald/Lajoie-Murray
OT
White-Rodewald/Englund
McCormick-Chlapik/Lajoie
Perron-Gagne/Jaros
White-Rodewald/Burgdoerfer
McCormick-Reinhart/Burgdoerfer
McCormick-Kelly/Sieloff

Who needs to score right? Put McCormick in every combination! Why he played half of OT is just another one of those mysteries (for those counting he has 2 goals against goaltenders in 19 games). Despite all the seeming PK variation just seven players account for the bulk of the ice time.

Notable Plays
Chlapik made a great pass to Vaive in the first, but the lumbering ECHLer couldn’t get his stick on the puck; credit to McCormick who made a great pass in the first to Perron which went nowhere. As you can see, not a lot of notable plays.

I’ll save player notes for after the game #2 stuff.

The following afternoon Belleville received the thumping I’d anticipated for their first game, this despite an injection of talent from the NHL. Before comments, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 29-39
PP: 0-4
PK: 4-5 (includes a lengthy 5-on-3)
Goaltender: Driedger got the start and is probably still having nightmares because of it, despite playing very well (twelve key saves by my count, despite giving up 4 goals); Taylor backed up; Andrew Hammond was reassigned by Colorado so will be back in the picture for the team’s next game.

The Goals
1. Toronto – Ciampini late on the backcheck and his man scores on a one-timer from the bottom of the circle
2. Toronto – Paul gets puck-watching and his man bangs in the puck
3. Toronto – Werek falls asleep positionally and his man scores from the slot
4. Toronto PP – tip-in (Englund facing the wrong way to take the man)
5. Gagne scores high with a wrist shot (this via the very briefly reconstituted Gagne-Chlapik-Perron line)
6. Toronto – empty net (Murray baubles the puck at the blueline)

Scoring chances (9): Gagne (x2, pp), Rodewald (x2), McCormick, Jaros, Chlapik, Perron, Murray

The Roster
With Thomas Chabot and Nick Paul returned from Ottawa there was some shuffling–Vaive was scratched and I think Lajoie was out because of injury, but I didn’t hear anything one way or another when I was catchign up on the game (I can’t imagine he’d be scratched in favour of Murray, but the possibility remains).

The Lines
McCormick-Paul-White
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald
Perron-Kelly-Gagne
Ciampini-Chlapik-Randell
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Chabot-Murray

Despite all the changes we know who the top left-winger is. Chlapik remained on the fourth line to start, but once the score got out of hand Kleinendorst was forced to play him more (Kelly slid down to make room for him). Poor Chabot–he’s spent a lot of time with Murray as his partner and that’s been a massive drag on his performance (I think Kleinendorst is afraid to put Jaros with him for defensive reasons, but Murray isn’t any better defensively in my opinion).

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Paul-Gagne/Chabot-White
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald/Chlapik-Jaros
Chlapik-Reinhart-Gagne/Chabot-White (once)
Penalty Kill
Perron-McCormick/Englund-Burgdoerfer
White-Randell/Englund-Burgdoerfer
White-Randell/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-Rodewald/Sieloff-Jaros
Kelly-Perron/Sieloff-Englund
McCormick-Rodewald/Englund-Jaros (scored on)
McCormick-White/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Paul-Randell/Englund-Jaros
Paul-Rodewald/Englund-Murray
McCormick-Kelly/Englund-Jaros
5-on-3
McCormick/Englund-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-Kelly/Englund

A few takeaways here: there actually was experimentation on the PK and Kleinendorst mostly kept Kelly off it (either through fears of conditioning–back-to-back games–or because he knows Kelly won’t be on the roster long). I’m not a big Tyler Randell fan, but if he can be an effective penalty killer and that comprises most of his ice time, it’s better than how he was being played. The stubbornness with how the team operates their PP is beyond the pale at this point (they now haven’t scored in four straight games, 0-13, and in fact only have PP goals in 8 of 21 games with the worst percentage in the entire AHL).

Notable Plays
Paul shoots the puck over the net on a 3-on-2 (first); Gagne hits the post late in the first; Perron misses the net on a breakaway (second)–goes high backhand; Englund threw a huge hit in the second which resulted in a fight (Randell was the fighter); McCormick can’t get a shot on goal on a partial breakaway (second); Chlapik sets up Rodewald down low but he fans on the shot (second); Paul set up White who gets pokechecked by the goaltender before he can shoot (second).

Player Notes
Murray: were it not for the hat-trick he scored I’d be arguing for him to go down to Brampton; he’s struggled defensively and just hasn’t been effective in distributing the puck (he’s a major drag on Chabot)
Lajoie: didn’t play much in his game back, but if healthy would be a huge help to the team (very good at short, safe passes)
Burgdoerfer: his panic threshold is not good–the turnovers against the Marlies, especially in the second game, were off the chart
Sieloff: did a lot of running around looking for hits the first game, but settled down to his usual self for the second
Jaros: not hugely noticeable; some struggles on the PK, but I’m not entirely convinced that’s all his fault
Englund: was his usual, steady self; threw one of the biggest hits of the season (ultimately had no impact on the game, but great for the highlight reels)
Chabot: really didn’t impact the game; he should add a lot to the PP, but the current unit he’s on isn’t conducive to scoring so his ability to skate and distribute the puck doesn’t go anywhere
Vaive: a classic “because he’s big” guy; he’s so slow and has no hands whatsoever–should be returned to the ECHL
Ciampini: given the limited ice time he was fine
Randell: no offensive tools whatsoever, which (for me) means the guy shouldn’t play; for a supposedly physical player he doesn’t exactly put the fear of god into the opposition
Kelly: looked like a 37-year version of himself; solid defensively, clueless offensively–didn’t really help the BSens and I have no idea what the org thinks it’s getting from him
Werek: despite being up in the lineup was largely invisible (not bad per se, but not generating much either)
Rodewald: I expect more from the guy, although it remains an odd decision to keep him away from Paul given how much chemistry the two had early in the season
Reinhart: did not gel at all with linemates in either game, despite all theoretically being decent offensive players–the problem is that all three are shooters, so they need a puck distributor
Perron: had a rough game one against the Marlies, but was much better in the second when he was moved away from Kelly as his center
Gagne: in the second game he was taken off the first line for the first time since Belleville’s 2-1 loss to Charlotte; like Perron he benefited from Kelly being removed as his center
White: still struggling to find his home with the team; on paper there’s some sense to having McCormick on his wing (in theory a guy who will drive the net), but Nick Paul was having his worst game of the year so it’s hard to judge what this line could do
Paul: I don’t know if it was the travel or something else, but this was Paul’s worst game of the year–turnovers and poor decisions abounded; not entirely sure why he wasn’t partnered back up with Rodewald
McCormick: given his ice time apparently the best player on the team; Kleinendorst is a smart guy, but he must be suffering from a severe case of observation bias because nothing reduces his ice time; despite playing so much in prime offensive positions he’s actually below his expected points-per-game and well off his normal goal scoring pace–he needs to be put in his proper checking role

It was fun watching the Marlies play, but definitely frustrating to see the conservative Belleville coaching staff trying to deal with them. I think they learned the wrong lesson from game one and by the time that was clear (when it was 4-0) it was far too late to do anything about it. What can we expect from the next game? It’s hard to say.

I haven’t mentioned that Marcus Hogberg seems to have found his game in Brampton. After the trip to Sweden he’s won 3 of 4 games and in the last two faced 95 shots and stopped 90 of them. While the team in front of him isn’t very good, he seems to have turned a corner. This, of course, puts Belleville’s wonky goaltending situation in a bigger tizzy as I’m not sure any of the constituent parts that you’d want to move (including in the NHL) are really movable.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 27, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

While the BSens haven’t been awful this year, a .500 record (9-9-1) isn’t going to cut it, especially when they have yet to play the Marlies (.778 and representing a huge volume of games the BSens have to play). In my opinion, one of the ways to improve the team is player usage, so I’m going to go through how I’d put the lines and pairings together (excluding players currently in the NHL or injured) and then go into why. The recent PTO for Chris Kelly feels more like a move for Ottawa rather than Belleville, but I mention where I’d put him below. It’s worth noting that I don’t think Kleinendorst is willing to demote his favourites below the top two lines, but there’s no reason not to hope I’m wrong.

Gagne-Chlapik-Rodewald
Has it happened this season? They were the second pp unit for the 7-1 loss against Utica; they scored the lone goal
The logic: Chlapik likes to carry the puck and both his wingers, while they can as well, don’t need to have it on their stick as much; both options tend to shoot more than pass, but not with the obsessiveness of an O’Brien; both options have great speed and good hands
Perron-White-Werek
Has it happened? No
The logic: White needs to carry the puck and is a shooter, while Perron only wants to pass, with both benefiting from Werek going to the net without the puck
McCormick-Reinhart-O’Brien
Has it happened? PP combination in their 4-2 loss Rochester, 5-4 win over the Amerks, and 7-1 loss to Utica
All three shoot first, so this is more about the defensive qualities of McCormick and O’Brien than what Reinhart brings to the table, but he at least consists of an offensive option and is more useful up the lineup than on the fourth line
Dunn-Ciampini-Randell
Has it happened? No
These are warm bodies; Ciampini can produce offense with limited playing time while the other two are simply better options than PTO Vaive; this is where Kelly would slot in, bumping Randell to the pressbox
Lajoie-Jaros
Has it happened? PP duo in the 5-1 win over Hartford, 3-2 loss to Providence, 7-4 loss to Springfield, and 4-3 win over Manitoba
These two were fantastic as second until pp blueliners (the duo disrupted by Harpur’s return and then injuries); both can handle the puck and get the offense moving from the back end–Lajoie is excellent at setting up Jaros’ big shot
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Has it happened? Yes, frequently on the pk and as a pairing
They add almost no offense whatsoever but, collectively, are safe defensively and play well together
Englund-Erkamps/Murray
Has it happened? Yes in both cases, with one an effective pk duo and the other a disaster
Defensively the double EE’s have been surprisingly effective, while with Murray it’s a defensive disaster–I include the latter because Kleinendorst is more than willing to play just five defensemen 5-on-5 so it’s a question of what he’d want with his sixth (someone for the PK or someone for the PP–although Murray has not been very effective on the powerplay)

It’s worthwhile to make some observations on key prospects and how they’ve played thus far this season (Key: sc=scoring chances, evp=even strength points, ppp=powerplay points, shpg=shots-per-game):

Filip Chlapik
October 8-1-4-5 (0.62) SC 12 EVP 3 PPP 2 SHPG 2.5 PP shifts PG 4.5
November 10-1-5-6 (0.6) SC 4 EVP 4 PPP 2 SHPG 1.3 PP shifts PG 3.5
Excellent speed
Capable of beating players one-on-one and good at entering the zone with possession; likes to hang on to the puck
On the rush he’s about 50-50 between shooting and passing, but inside the zone he likes to carry the puck around the zone and dish off to a defenseman, then swing out into the open; this latter strategy works well with good puckhandling blueliners, but not otherwise
Defensively he’s very good on the backcheck, while positionly he’s about average
You can see by his decline in shots-per-game and scoring chances how the change in his ice time has impacted him

Francis Perron
October 7-0-3-3 (0.42) SC 4 EVP 2 PPP 1 SHPG 1.28 PP shifts 1.42
November 10-2-5-7 (0.7) SC 5 EVP 6 PPP 1 SHPG 1.3 PP shifts 3.0
Average speed
Doesn’t try to beat players one-on-one that often, preferring to pass
On the rush he’ll pass unless there’s no other option
Likes to make cross-ice passes which can get him into trouble
Solid defensively when it comes to position and instincts

Gabriel Gagne
October 9-4-0-4 (0.44) SC 5 EVP 4 PPP 0 SHPG 2.66 PP shifts 0.85
November 10-4-1-5 (0.5) SC 13 EVP 3 PPP 2 SHPG 2.6 PP shifts 3.0
Great speed
Capable of beating players one-on-one, but doesn’t need to carry the puck; sometimes opts for the chip and chase
On the rush he’s about 60-40 between shooting and passing; he has a great shot
Defensively he’s about average
His massive swing in scoring chances is related to a big upswing in TOI and PP opportunities

Thomas Chabot
October 5-1-2-3 (0.6) SC 4 EVP 0 PPP 3 SHPG 3.4 PP shifts 6.2
November 7-1-3-4 (0.57) SC 1 EVP 2 PPP 2 SHPG 3.0 PP shifts 4.42
Excellent skater
Capable of beating players one-on-one and likes to carry the puck; generally passes on the rush
Defensively he’s quite good, albeit his infrequent PK appearances make him hard to judge there

Maxime Lajoie
Oct-Nov* 10-0-4-4 (0.4) SC 2 EVP 2 PPP 2 SHPG 1.0 PP shifts 4.0
*with just one game in November I combined the stats
Average speed
Doesn’t try to beat players one-on-one, preferring to move the puck
Prefers to set up shooters and works to make those passes the high percentage variety
Defensively he’s about average

Christian Jaros
October 8-1-4-5 (0.62) SC 5 EVP 3 PPP 2 SHPG 2.5 PP shifts 4.5
November 4-0-0-0 (0.0) SC 0 SHPG 1.0 PP shifts 2.75
Good speed
Can beat players one-on-one, but doesn’t attempt it as often as (say) Chabot
Has a great shot and uses it as much as he can
Defensively he’s solid 5-on-5, but just average on the PK
Can play physically but is careful in picking his spots

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 24, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Last night the BSens finished their four-game season series against Charlotte and picked up their first win on the back of strong goaltending and timely scoring. Before I get into my observations, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 23-29
PP: 0-4
PK: 2-2
Goaltender: Chris Driedger started again because Colorado had recalled Andrew Hammond and Danny Taylor was still sick–he was excellent, although the team didn’t force him to bail them out as much as the night before (he made five key saves).

The Opposition
The only major change from the previous night was in net and veteran ‘tender Jeremy Smith continued his awful season with Charlotte.

The Goals
1. Englund steals the puck on the Checker breakout and Werek essentially bounces the puck in off Reinhart
2. Charlotte – wide open beats Driedger low far side from the slot (Werek late on the backcheck)
3. Ciampini goes shelf on a partial break after poking the puck passed the D at his own blueline
4. Werek finds O’Brien all alone in front who dekes the goalie and scores on the backhand (Jimothy was part of a line change the Checkers did not pick up on)
5. Driedger beaten high on the short side from the goal line (not a good goal)
6. Reinhart buries the pass from Werek on the 2-on-1
7. McCormick beats the empty net, giving him the team lead in empty net points

Scoring chances (12): Reinhart (3), Gagne (x2, pp), White, Rodewald, Sieloff, Ciampini, McCormick (pp), Englund, O’Brien

The Roster
The only change was Ciampini replacing the pylon known as Justin Vaive.

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald
Perron-Chlapik-White
Dunn-Ciampini-Randell
Englund-Jaros
Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps

Every line except the fourth was changed (Werek and Reinhart moved to the second, White to the third, Ciampini to the fourth); while the defense pairings were unchanged, Erkamps played exactly one shift (in the third when the score was 5-2).

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-O’Brien-Rodewald/Jaros-White
Chlapik-Reinhart-Gagne/Murray-Perron
Werek-O’Brien-Rodewald/Jaros-White
Gagne-Chlapik-White/Murray-Perron
Chlapik-White-Rodewald/Sieloff-Jaros
Werek-Reinhart-Rodewald/Murray-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-White-Gagne/Murray-Jaros
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Rodewald-Randell/Englund-Jaros
Perron-White/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
O’Brien-Randell/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
Perron-Rodewald/Englund-Jaros

This is only the second time this year that the BSens were shorthanded just twice (the other was their 3-2 OT win over Manitoba). If the powerplay combinations look like everything but the kitchen sink that’s not far off. In the third Kleinendorst was clearly experimenting, but nothing was working. The major problem was on the back end–Jordan Murray has had all kinds of problems quarterbacking powerplay units (no one seems to know what he’s going to do, including him it seems). Getting into the zone isn’t the issue when Murray isn’t in the unit, but that’s typically when McCormick and O’Brien are on the ice so the problems are inside the zone.

Notable Plays
Werek was speared in the first (undetected) and was doubled over in pain, but stayed in the game and seemed fine; Perron made a fantastic backhand aerial pass to White in the first that gave him a breakaway; in the second Jaros was in a big collision in the corner (offensive zone) and seemed momentarily stunned, but was no worse for wear subsequently; Randell continued his struggles versus empty nets as late in the second he was unable to handle a pass for what would have been a tap-in; Perron was in a lot of pain with a late third period shot-block (again, he stayed).

Player Notes
Erkamps: he played one shift, so what can I say?
Murray: in front of family and friends he was not good at all–indecisive and unproductive–he was wisely kept off the PK
Burgdoerfer: the turnovers continue–he runs into trouble overhandling the puck or simply panicking in the defensive zone
Englund: wasn’t a perfect game for him but he contributed to an offensive play and had his first genuine scoring chance since the team’s 5-1 win over Hartford
Sieloff: one of his better games, including his first scoring chance since scoring in Belleville’s 7-4 loss to Springfield
Jaros: still doesn’t seem 100%, but continues to gradually improve; I thought he was strong defensively
Dunn: didn’t play much, but no overt snafus
Randell: he’s now played 17 games without a point versus a goaltender–why is he dressing?
Ciampini: credit a guy for producing with limited ice time
Chlapik: seems to have lost some of his confidence–a mix of the wrong linemates and a lack of TOI aren’t helping
Perron: played very well, but he and Chlapik haven’t meshed as a unit (linemates 7 of the last 8 games)
White: speaking of guys who don’t gel with Chlapik, he was largely invisible after the first
Rodewald: despite playing a ton was not that noticeable
Reinhart: benefited tremendously from playing with Werek (nothing about his game was different, simply his linemates)
Werek: I’ve been saying for awhile that he was a bad fit on Chlapik’s wing and Kleinendorst finally gave up on the experiment (after 4 of the last 5 games) and it provided immediate results
Gagne: tonight was a good illustration that his production is inspite rather than because of his linemates; he was fine, but there’s so much more he could do
O’Brien: took a stick in the face in the third and scored a nice goal
McCormick: is playing far too much; dependable defensively, but Kleinendorst needs an intervention on he and Jimothy

A great win for the team, albeit things could have easily gone the other way as the BSens benefited from subpar goaltending. I mentioned a lot of lineup complaints and I’ll have a piece talking about what I would do if I was putting this group together.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 23, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

I caught this game on replay in the midst of my Punisher binge on Netflix (great show, incidentally). The only feed was the away stream and AHL Live was extra muddy from Utica. Before I get into my feelings, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 27-34
PP: 1-7 (included a lengthy 5-on-3)
PK: 3-6 (one of these was cancelled immediately off a faceoff violation)
Goaltender: Danny Taylor who was absolutely awful (he made just 4 key saves); Chris Driedger backed up and should have played at some point, but Kleinendorst refused to pull the veteran

The Goals
1. Utica PP – Taylor beat short side by a one-timer from the top of the circle
2. Utica – Taylor beat high from the top of the slot
3. Utica PP – Murray way out of position leaves the man wide open to bang in the rebound (not sure why Taylor wasn’t pulled after this)
4. Utica – one-timer from just inside the circle
5. Utica – scores on a breakaway
6. PP – Gagne off a nice pass from Chlapik (goes top shelf)
7. Utica – breakway (deke)
8. Utica PP – Sieloff gets puck watching leaving his man open to bang in the rebound

Scoring chances (11): McCormick (x4, pp, shx2), Gagne (x3, ppx2), White, Werek, Murray (pp), Reinhart (pp)

The Roster
Nick Paul and Ben Harpur joined Ottawa and were replaced by now-healthy Christian Jaros and Justin Vaive. Randell and Erkamps remained healthy scratches, Donaghey and Marcus Hogberg were in Brampton (the latter getting his first win and being a big part of it).

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Vaive-White-Rodewald
Perron-Chlapik-Werek
Dunn-Reinhart-Ciampini
Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Jaros
Sieloff-Murray

Vaive barely played, but there wasn’t a regular fill-in for him; Jaros didn’t play much comparatively. Kleinendorst did a little juggling in the third once it was 5-0 (playing Chlapik, Gagne, and Perron more).

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Reinhart-O’Brien/Chabot-White
Gagne-Chlapik-Rodewald/Murray-Perron (scored)
5-on-3
Gagne-Reinhart-O’Brien/Chabot-White
Gagne-Perron-Rodewald/Murray-Jaros
4-on-4
McCormick-O’Brien/Chabot-Jaros
White-Rodewald/Murray-Chabot
Gagne-Perron/Murray-Chabot
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien/Sieloff-Jaros
McCormick-O’Brien/Englund-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-O’Brien/Englund-Sieloff (scored on)
Perron-White/Murray-Jaros
Perron-White/Sieloff-Jaros
Perron-White/Englund-Burgdoerfer
Perron-White/Englund-Jaros
McCormick-Rodewald/Murray-Jaros
McCormick-Rodewald/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-Rodewald/Englund-Murray (scored on)
White-Rodewald/Murray-Jaros (scored on)

This huge list is due both to experimentation as well as guys being in the penalty box (the BSens took a lot of dumb penalties). One of the notable trends, however, is less and less Burgdoerfer on special teams (he’s completely absent from the PP and little-used on the PK).

Notable Plays
Jaros made a great rush in the first; O’Brien missed the net on a breakaway (the first); Murray hit the post in the third; O’Brien deked out his teammates and then fanned on his shot leading to a partial breakaway the other way (third); former Leaf Sifers attacked Chlapik in the third (forced a fight)

Player Notes
Jaros: didn’t play as much as he normally would; beyond the rush mentioned above his other highlight was a great pass to McCormick in the first resulting in a scoring chance
Murray: doesn’t seem like a good fit on the PK and didn’t accomplish much outside of two shifts in the third (hitting the post and then a scoring chance on the PP)
Englund: had his cloak of invisibility on as I made zero notations for him
Burgdoerfer: not a pretty game for him with a lot of turnovers
Sieloff: took a dumb penalty that resulted in the second Utica goal; otherwise it was a pretty standard game for him
Chabot: carrying around Burgdoerfer doesn’t do his game any favours and I don’t think the current first PP arrangement suits him either–an unremarkable outing (his highlight was a great defensive play in the first)
Vaive: I want him sent back to the E, but that means Randell plays so I’m in a bind
Dunn: dressed in this game, but made no impact on it
Ciampini: see above
Reinhart: Kleinendorst needs to give up playing him with the first powerplay unit; it’s pretty apparently his lousy season in the DEL last year wasn’t a fluke
Perron: did not make much of an impact–seems at his best when paired with Gagne (although oddly I’m not sure those two with Chlapik works)
Werek: he’s now gone pointless in four games and, as I said last time, isn’t a great fit with Chlapik (his points have generally come from banging in rebounds from other shooters)
Chlapik: I’m not sure what it will take to consistently put him with the right players–much like Perron his production jumps with Gagne as they compliment one another; beyond his assist tonight he made a great defensive play late in the second
Rodewald: not his best game–I don’t think he fits well with White as his center (I’d rather see him with Chlapik)–but that wasn’t due to a lack of effort
White: I’m still not sure who the best wingers for him are, but more experimentation is needed
O’Brien: there’s far too much Jimothy in my life–despite 1 point in his last 4 games his minutes are still near the top of the forward heep
McCormick: on the one hand you want to credit him for all the scoring chances, but on the other he needs to finish some of them if he’s going to get all these opportunities–2 goals on the season at this point is not acceptable
Gagne: a funny thing–he’s played more and he’s produced more–I wish Kleinendorst would take the hint for all top prospects! He’s misplaced playing with two shooters (O’Brien and McCormick) however

My primary complaint in this game is leaving Danny Taylor in net–what for? He’s now been awful in three straight starts, that’s far too long for an experienced netminder. Maybe he needs a game in Brampton or to sit for Driedger a few times to get himself straightened out. That said, scoring one goal isn’t enough either, although I think much of that is down to player usage.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 18, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

For a game with such a lopsided score this is one the BSens could have easily lost were it not for some spectacular goaltending. Before I get into my observations, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 35-46
PP: 1-1
PK: 3-3 (one abbreviated)
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond, who was fantastic (12 key saves); Danny Taylor backed-up while Chris Driedger was scratched and Marcus Hogberg backed-up in Brampton

The Opposition
One of the better teams in the league (9-4-2 coming in), the high flying Flyers dominated much of the game (particularly the second period), but struggling netminders (both played and gave up 3 goals each) along with Hammond’s play were too much to overcome. The team has a BSens’ connection as Phil Varone is on the roster.

The Goals
1. Harpur floats one through a crowd
2. Rodewald bangs in Harpur’s rebound
3. Gagne bangs in Burgdoerfer’s rebound
4. Lehigh – Sieloff passes to the wrong team and they score on the breakaway
5. Lehigh – Sieloff turns it over and the puck is deflected in
6. Gagne scores low, far side in tight
7. PP O’Brien bangs in Chabot’s rebound
8. White with the one-timer via Rodewald on a 2-on-1

Scoring chances (13): Gagne (x3), Rodewald (x2), O’Brien (x2), Harpur, White, Paul, Chlapik, Reinhart, Perron

The Roster
A lot of changes as nearly all players were returned from Ottawa–Rodewald, Paul, and Harpur. These additions meant the scratching of Erkamps (on the blueline), Randell (is this the beginning of him getting Stortini’d?), and the demotion of Donaghey to Brampton.

The Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Paul-White-Rodewald
Perron-Chlapik-Werek
Dunn-Reinhart-Ciampini
Sieloff-Harpur
Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Englund-Murray

The major changes are to the second and third lines; Harpur, who was averaging 28 minutes a night in his previous games, also played a ton, but looked much better.

Special Teams
McCormick-Paul-White/Chabot-O’Brien (scored)
4-on-4
Paul-O’Brien/Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Paul-Rodewald/Murray-Chabot
Reinhart-Ciampini/Englund-Burgdoerfer
Chlapik-Gagne/Murray-Chabot
Penalty Kill
McCormick-Rodewald/Sieloff-Harpur
O’Brien-Perron/Englund-Burgdoerfer
White-Perron/Sieloff-Harpur
McCormick-O’Brien/Sieloff-Harpur
Paul-Rodewald/Sieloff-Harpur
White-Perron/Englund-Harpur
There wasn’t a lot of special teams time, but the main impact on the lineup was Harpur’s presence, who reduced Englund’s time on the PK rotation.

Notable Plays
Chlapik missed the net trying to one-time a pass from Perron on a 2-on-1 in the third; Chabot hurt his hand when hit from behind in the same period, but seemed fine afterwards.

Player Notes
Murray: virtually invisible after getting a hat-trick in the previous game, but he didn’t play much
Burgdoerfer: only thing I noted was a turnover in the third
Englund: also largely invisible (as above I just noted a turnover, albeit in the first)
Sieloff: an ugly game for him as both goals against were directly off terrible turnovers he made
Chabot: picked up points and was generally good overall, albeit lost some ice time due to Harpur’s presence
Harpur: was much better than his previous tour with the team; while he remains lumbering he made much smarter decisions with the puck
Dunn: a non-factor
Ciampini: also invisible
Reinhart: the return of Paul and Rodewald radically cut his ice time and other than his scoring chance wasn’t a factor
Werek: third straight game without a point and doesn’t really mesh well on his current line
Perron: after exploding for three-points he was pretty quiet outside a flurry early in the third
Chlapik: third-line minutes aren’t helping, but when he was allowed to play he was a factor (had a very good third period)
Paul: despite Rodewald’s presence his struggles offensively continue
Rodewald: great game from him–the team has sorely missed him
White: quiet performance and I don’t think he functions that well on Paul’s wing
McCormick: he had three-assists so I’d call that a good night
O’Brien: I sound like a broken record, but he’s not a first-line center; the goal is welcome
Gagne: I was complaining earlier in the year how he needed to play more and we’re seeing the result of that happening (three goals in his last three games)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 16, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

The rematch with the Amerks was an entertaining game to watch (I caught it after the fact). Before I get into my observations, here are the basics (the boxscore):
Shots: 40-23
PP: 0-3
PK: 2-3
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond, who struggled (he made 7 key saves); Chris Driedger backed up, while Danny Taylor was scratched.

The Opposition
Rochester played their backup who, like Hammond, was also guilty of some bad goals. The team was also without veteren blueliner Redmond who was replaced by former Binghamton flameout Conor Allen (who was -3 on the night). So all-in-all, it was a weaker team.

The Goals
1. Chabot one-timer from the dot
2. Rochester – 3-on-2 shoots and scores 5-hole
3. Rochester – odd man rush hits the post and neither Gagne nor Englund can tie-up the man in front who bangs in the loose puck
4. Rochester PP – great pass through the crease beats Hammond 5-hole
5. Murray’s point shot goes in 5-hole (this was originally given to McCormick)
6. Rochester – Hammond beat 5-hole
7. Murray from a terrible angle down low
8. Perron bangs in flubbed Reinhart shot in front
9. Murray tips in Perron’s flip pass

Scoring chances (12): McCormick (x3, pp), Murray (x3), Perron (x2), Chabot, O’Brien (pp), Werek, Ciampini

The Roster
All the injured players remained out and with ECHL callup Walters already returned (I’m not sure what the story behind that is); instead Cody Donaghey was dressed but sat on the bench the entire game (zero shifts).

Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Perron-White-Chlapik
Ciampini-Reinhart-Werek
Dunn-Randell
Englund-Sieloff
Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps
Donaghey

This is the identical lineup and, as mentioned, Donaghey did not get a shift. Also of note, Werek took Perron’s spot on the second line early in the game (this helped the latter, not the former).

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Reinhart-O’Brien/Chabot-White
Gagne-Chlapik-Perron/Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien/Sieloff-Englund
Perron-White/Sieloff-Englund
Perron-White/Murray-Englund (scored on)
Perron-White/Murray-Erkamps
Ciampini-Reinhart/Murray-Erkamps (once)

I’m not a big fan of the PP as currently configured–if McCormick and O’Brien are on the powerplay they should be on the second unit, but I don’t know what it will take to get Kleinendorst away from that (he gave up on Werek pretty quickly, but he knows the latter two from coaching them previously). Erkamps returns to the PK rotation, but really the combos are basically the same.

Notable Plays
Despite the huge volume of shots the BSens were guilty of missing open opportunities on numerous occasions (Reinhart in the first, O’Brien in the first and second, and Burgdoerfer and Chabot in the third). We also got the trademarked O’Brien OT maneuver from Burgdoerfer who pulled the puck out of the zone while having offensive pressure because reasons.

Player Notes
Erkamps: picked up his first point of the year and seemed more comfortable 5-on-5 than he has all season
Murray: a non-factor since being recalled from Brampton he exploded for a hat-trick (!); if he can in anyway start to consistently produce I’ll pat Randy Lee on the back for the signing–but one game isn’t quite enough for that
Englund: another day at the office for him
Sieloff: most notable play was taking a head shot from MacWilliams in the third; he’s lucky he was able to continue
Burgdoerfer: hasn’t had a point in five-games, is off the PK, but gets to play with Chabot–makes my head hurt a little
Chabot: pretty much back to form–not only did he get his first 5-on-5 point, but he was dominant and probably played 30 minutes on the night
Dunn: I know he played, but warranted no notations
Ciampini: invisible except for the play leading to the tying goal, so all things considered, that’s not bad
Randell: two of his teammates took nasty hits in the game and his response was… well he didn’t respond (nor did he do anything notable). He’s off the PK though, so that’s something
Werek: I mentioned earlier that he’d regress to the mean and that’s happening in a hurry (being off the PP doesn’t help), with just one assist in his last three games; he isn’t a good fit with Chlapik/White and I hope Kleinendorst doesn’t stick with that line
Reinhart: got off the schneid in the previous game and picked up another point, which is what he’s on the team to do
Perron: was demoted down the lineup, but scoring did wonders for his confidence (he was definitely struggling prior to that goal)
White: is a funny player in that he’s hugely impacted by who he plays with–not a great fit with Werek–my only note for him the entire game was a turnover late in the third
Chlapik: had his point streak broken, but not for a lack of trying–made a great steal in the offense zone in the third to set up Chabot who walked up main street but missed the net; he did the same for Burgdoerfer later in the period who also missed
Gagne: showed off great speed, but the most notable moment was a terrible fall into the end boards in the third (I think the Amerk D might have helped him on his way)–he looked shook up, but was fine and played in OT
O’Brien: a solid game for Jimothy as he picked up another point, but he’s badly misplaced as a top center
McCormick: his assist still has him slightly behind his expected ppg (6 instead of 7) and he’s far behind his goal-scoring pace from both previous seasons (he’s about on par with his rookie year), this despite an enormity of ice time including the top powerplay unit

The BSens did well to come back from a pair of two-goal deficits and bail out the goaltender who has stood tall for them all season. There are still issues on the powerplay, which has only scored in one of the last seven games–the hypodermic needle marked “veteran-I-know” that Kleinendorst uses so often is still an impediment, although spreading out talented prospects (like Gagne) throughout the lineup helps. I was happy to see Erkamps play regularly as it’s simply too much of a burden to play five-defensemen night after night (he might as well play on the PK as well, as the results have been fine when he has). The team definitely needs a different player on White’s line–possibly Gagne, or even someone like Reinhart who can let the other two figure out possession for him.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 12, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another two-for-one post from me, with thoughts chronologically, so the Binghamton game first. It wasn’t a particularly emotional game for the teams involved, but for long time BSens fans it had a little extra zest, as Binghamton had been the stomping grounds for Ottawa’s prospects for so long. Before I get into my observations, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 28-28
PP: 0-4 (running their total to 0-19 over five games)
PK: 4-5
Goaltender: Andrew Hammond, who was solid if not quite spectacular (I had him making 5 key saves); Danny Taylor backed up while Chris Driedger sat in the pressbox (he’d be sent to Brampton the following day)

The Opposition
Bingo came in with a strong lineup (5-3-1), but their game was hampered by bad goaltending from Ken Appleby who gave up four goals in sixteen shots before being relieved.

The Goals
1. O’Brien scores shortside from a bad angle
2. Binghamton PP – just a great passing play
3. McCormick bangs in a rebound
4. White scores off a great bank-pass by Chlapik with the Devils goalie down and out
5. Dunn centers the puck and O’Brien cleans up the play
6. Binghamton – bounces the puck in off Chabot
7. Binghamton – bang in a rebound (Chabot a bit soft on the back check)

Scoring chances (8): O’Brien (x4), White (x2), McCormick, Dunn

The Roster
Lajoie, Jaros, Blunden, Vaive, and Flanagan still out with injury; Sexton was a surprise scratch (also injured); Paul, Hogberg, Rodewald, and DiDomenico remain in Ottawa (given his production I think the odds of the latter ever returning are virtually zero now); Donaghey remained the lone Senator in Brampton.

Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Chlapik-White-Werek
Perron-Reinhart-Randell
Dunn-Ciampini
Englund-Sieloff
Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps

The defense pairings are unchanged from the previous game, but the forward groups are scrambled with Gagne moving off the third line for the first time this year.

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Reinhart-White/Chabot-Werek
McCormick-Reinhart-White/Murray-Burgdoerfer
Gagne-Chlapik-Perron/Murray-Burgdoerfer
Penalty Kill
McCormick-White/Englund-Sieloff (scored on) – Murray had switched on for Sieloff
Perron-O’Brien/Englund-Burgdoerfer
McCormick-White/Englund-Burgdoerfer
Perron-O’Brien/Murray-Erkamps
McCormick-O’Brien/Englund-Sieloff
Perron-White/Englund-Sieloff
McCormick-O’Brien/Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Perron-White/Englund-Burgdoerfer

Keeping Chlapik off the top powerplay unit remains bizarre to me, but Kleinendorst has been trying to stick to his combinations more throughout games hoping for it to work. Despite all the seeming variety on the PK the defense units were quite stable and the forward personal remained steady as well, just the combos varied.

Notable Plays
Chabot made a nice rush in the first–getting the puck in front to Werek, but he missed the net. Later that period Perron had a great chance but couldn’t get the shot off (something that’s happened to him fairly frequently this season). Speaking of Perron, he went offside on a 2-on-1 vs an empty net.

The game against Rochester saw the exact same lineup–the BSens called up Ryan Walters (no relation to the former NHLer) from ECHL Utah, but he was unable to get there in time. Unlike previous call-up Justin Vaive, Walters is a very productive ECHLer (0.92 PPG) who briefly played in the Belarussian league to start the year. Before my observations, here are the basics (the box score):
Shots: 40-30
PP: 2-6 (one brief)
PK: 5-5 (including a two minute 5-on-3)
Goaltender: Taylor got the start and his struggles continued (he made 7 key saves); Hammond backed up while Driedger played (and won) his game with Brampton.

The Opposition
The Amerks are a veteran team and (on-paper) better than the BSens (arriving with a 6-4-1 record). The team has a couple of productive rookies to go along with solid goaltending.

The Goals
1. Rochester – White turns it over in the neutral zone leading to a breakaway
2. PP Reinhart bangs in a shot from the point
3. Rochester – screened shot from a bad angle is deflected in
4. Rochester – Sieloff gets undressed and Taylor is beat on a bad angle
5. Rochester SH – Perron turnover leads to a breakaway
6. PP Gagne bangs in Chlapik’s rebound

Scoring chances (11): Reinhart (x4, pp), Gagne (x2, pp), O’Brien (x2), Perron, Burgdoerfer (pp), Erkamps

The Roster
No changes from the previous game, although it was clearly intended that Walter would be the twelfth forward.

Lines
McCormick-O’Brien-Gagne
Chlapik-White-Werek
Perron-Reinhart-Randell
Dunn-Ciampini
Englund-Sieloff
Chabot-Burgdoerfer
Murray-Erkamps

These are the same lines as the previous game. Of note, besides taking an awful penalty in the third, Randell was basically invisible and part of that was him playing less, so that made me happy.

Special Teams
Powerplay
McCormick-Reinhart-O’Brien/Chabot-White (scored)
Gagne-Chlapik-Perron/Murray-Burgdoerfer (scored)
Penalty Kill
McCormick-O’Brien/Englund-Sieloff
Perron-White/Englund-Burgdoerfer
McCormick/Englund-Sieloff
White/Sieloff-Burgdoerfer

This is the least amount of variation this season (given a reasonable number of opportunities). The second unit is what used to be the third line although, again, I have to wonder why Chlapik is getting second unit time.

Notable Plays
Both Chabot and White hit the post (both in the second period, the latter on the powerplay). Chlapik had a couple of nice rushes (one in the first and one in the third), but neither resulted in shots (Gagne did the same thing in the second). He (Chlapik) did set-up Werek nicely in the second, but he shot the puck over the net from in close. McCormick missed the net on a 2-on-1 shorthanded in the second. Taylor almost repeated his mistake of mishandling the puck behind the net and getting scored on in the third (something he did in the 6-1 loss to Charlotte).

Player Notes
Erkamps: had what I believe is his first scoring chance of the season; seems largely removed from the PK but over the two games was adequate 5-on-5 (no notable snafus)
Murray: only negative notations from me (including a couple of turnovers and a bad penalty against Binghamton); did pick up an assist
Burgdoerfer: has had his PK time cut and on the whole made little impact in either game (without Lajoie or Chabot setting him up he’s virtually invisible on the PP)
Sieloff: played a ton, mostly within expectations (wasn’t as good against Rochester)
Englund: sometimes played entire PK shifts; mostly solid play, albeit late in the third against Binghamton he passed to the wrong team and Hammond had to bail him out
Chabot: clearly still recovering, but was starting to look like himself against Rochester–when he’s 100% he’ll go back to dominating; leads the team in PP points
Dunn: picked up a rare point against Binghamton, but returned to invisibility against Rochester (where he engaged in a pointless fight in the third)
Randell: removed from special teams and, with Kleinendorst rotating four lines, has seen his minutes cut; only notable moment was creating a 5-on-3 against by attempting to draw the Amerks into an off-setting penalty and failing
Ciampini: while he’s had some decent games this season he qualified for zero notations through both games (generous of me as he had a couple of turnovers that his teammates immediately bailed him out on)
Perron: I think there are some confidence issues going on for him as he made some uncharacteristic flubs in both games
Werek: had his opportunities, but struggled to get the puck on goal in both games
Reinhart: after 8-straight games without a point picked up his second goal of the season and also had a lot of quality chances–maybe this will be a lightbulb moment for him
White: has looked better and better with each game; definitely a shoot-first player at this level and his game has gone up a notch playing with Chlapik
Chlapik: taken off the top PP unit, but managed to get points in both games; fantastic hands and plays hard at both ends of the ice; took a nasty high hit late in the game against Rochester, but seemed alright afterwards
McCormick: after playing an absurd amount on the powerplay he picked up his first PP point against Rochester; the goal against Binghamton is nice, but he’s still playing way too much in an offensive role
O’Brien: had his first two-goal game since March of 2016 (that’s more than a full-season ago); as a first-line center he’s getting opportunities, but he’s not a puck-distributor nor possession driver, so ultimately I think it’s counter productive
Gagne: finally getting shifts on the PP unit, albeit the second, and picked up a goal in that capacity vs Rochester; he’s looked much more confident of late and his skating has definitely improved; I’ve come to like him a lot and the fact Kleinendorst has put him on the first line suggests he has his coaches confidence as well

While TOI is, in some respects, getting sorted out 5-on-5, I still think there are tweaks needed on special teams. The primary problem for the team in their loss was, however, goaltending. Maybe we’ll see Driedger get a start instead of Taylor (who has already lost the starting job to Hammond), but time will tell.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 11, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

With the big trade for Matt Duchene normally I’d be the one kicking and screaming about losing a high end prospect (Shane Bowers) and picks (a 1st and a 3rd). In this case, at least with the prospect, I’m content. I wasn’t a big fan of the selection, who I thought was an uninspired pick with a low ceiling (time will tell, of course). I do miss the picks, but the org has always been very free in dolling them out, so it’s to be expected. The most interesting decision involves Andrew Hammond, where Pierre Dorion pulled the reverse of what Toronto did in the Dion Phaneuf trade (when Matt Frattin was included, but just his salary, as Ottawa loaned him back to the Marlies immediately). Initially I’d thought the team was making room for it’s two prospects (Hogberg and Driedger), but now I think it’s more likely that the Swede is going to be loaned back to Linkoping or elsewhere in the SHL, while Driedger goes down to Brampton (unless they trade Danny Taylor–a savvy move in my opinion, assuming he can be moved).

For the NHL side of the deal I suggest reading Nichols, whose opinions are largely my own–the Sens are merely buying another season (perhaps) of Cup relevance before their aging lineup starts to drag them down.

Noted comic book fan Travis Yost looks at something Micah Blake McCurdy studied back in 2014, which is how long does it take for a team’s performance to settle to show what they truly are? McCurdy felt that 25 games was the point of no return, whereas Travis is roughly at 30. These are worth keeping in mind when it comes to early returns for every team.

For those who missed it I did a very crunchy breakdown of the BSens month of September (here and here). Right now the team is in the midst of injury troubles on the blueline and a coach struggling to find the right forward combinations (Kleinendorst suffers from a very common coaching affliction, which is an over dedication to veterans and perceived “safe” players).

The team is near the veteran contract limit: Danny Taylor, Andrew Hammond, Mike Blunden, and Max Reinhart quality (Chris DiDomenico‘s Italian league games don’t seem to count, while Tyler Randell was two games under the limit when signed). Both Jim O’Brien and Ethan Werek qualify as veterans, but the Sens seemingly have dodged the limit by signing them to AHL-deals. The PTO rules, incidentally, are pretty loose, as each such contract covers 25 games played and a player can go through two of those before the team has to make a decision (so through two-thirds of the season).

As a note, the rules to be considered a rookie if you are European are a bit wonky:
-cut off is 26th birthday by Sept.15th
-less than 100 European Elite League games
The latter is part of the reason you don’t see a lot of European pros come to the AHL

Like many cities after the fact, some in Belleville are concerned about the deal that was struck to bring the AHL franchise to the city:

“I felt the deal struck with Melnyk wasn’t the best deal available to the city,” Sandison said. “Now, we own nothing and we loaned Melynk $6.5 million USD. I believe the negotiating team exercised poor judgement and made a deal that shouldn’t have been made.”

Coun. Paul Carr said he relied on the recommendation made by the negotiating team which included Mayor Taso Christopher and city director Mark Fluhrer. “Those negotiations were proceeding and there were some positive elements to it, but that deal fell through,” Carr said.

“At that point, there was no firm endorsement required,” said Carr, “That deal never got to the point where it was a take it or leave it. The first one never got to a point where we had to make a final decision because the party [Grant Kook’s Westcap Management Ltd] backed out.”

There’s no going back for Belleville at this point, as they’ve given the Sens the arena rent-free for three years, but it’s yet another indication that public funding for sports teams is virtually never a winning formula for tax payers.

Overage CHLer Max Fortier was signed by Columbus. He was expected to be drafted in both 2016 and this year, but his size (5’10) proved too much of an impediment.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

November 8, 2017
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment