Reviewing Ottawa’s 2016 Draft

The 2016 NHL Draft is in the books so we can take a look at how the Senators did at this year’s draft.  My predictions for who they would pick went down in flames (expectedly, although I hoped to get one or two).  Pierre Dorion’s first draft featured just one trade, sending the Sens first round pick (#12, Michael McLeod) and a third round pick (#80, Brandon Gignac), for the #11 pick.  Otherwise we saw most of the usual Bryan Murray drafting trends continue (preference for size, a player from Sweden, a player from the US junior systems, no Russians, and a (pseudo) local boy in Brown).  Things that changed from the norm include drafting a player from Finland (the first since 2005), not drafting a player from the QMJHL (the first time since 2007, but Lajoie if from Quebec so….), and drafting a player under 6’0 (first time since 2011, although 5’11 is not much of a reach).  Without further ado, here are the players (I reference my master list for when I say where they were slotted):

1-11 Logan Brown (C 6’6 OHL 59-21-53-74); Rankings 7-13; slotted #9

I expected the son of former NHLer Jeff to be gone earlier, but Clayton Keller and Olli Juolevi went early leaving him available; Dorion made a trade to move up to get the 6’6 forward which echoes the trade for Gabriel Gagne last year (also with New Jersey where they sent a 2nd and 4th to get the pick).  I echoed Trevor Shackles’ sentiment about the trade, but it will be several years before we can truly assess the move.  Brown finished second in scoring for Windsor (well behind Christian Fischer and, by points-per-game, Brendan Lemieux; both older players and both 2nd round picks).

The scouting assessments of Brown are all very similar, agreeing on the following: he’s not a physical player, has a good shot but doesn’t shoot enough, is a great passer, has a good hockey IQ, protects the puck down low and is good on the cycle, and he’s TALL.  Disagreements: one (of four) didn’t think he was very good off the rush and the same thought he needed to improve defensively; opinions on his skating are mixed.

2-42 Jonathan Dahlen (C/LW 5’11 Allsvenskan 51-15-14-29); Rankings 24-149; slotted #41

Son of former NHLer Ulf, he’s another player I expected to be gone before this pick, although it’s not like he tumbled down the draft very far.  The Sens always pick a Swede and Dahlen is the first under 6’0 player they’ve taken since 2011.  It’s worth noting that Dahlen spent the year in the tier-2 men’s league, not Swedish junior, so his numbers are quite good (he lead the lackluster Timra roster in scoring–in points-per-game he’s just ahead of Victor Ejdsell and Johan Persson, both older, undrafted players).

Scouting opinions on him are very similar: a natural goal-scorer who is very good around the net; a good forechecker; good skater (some debate about his acceleration); very competitive, but not very physical.  The only real disagreement is about his defensive abilities, which range from average to good.

4-103 Todd Burgess (C/RW 6’2 NAHL 60-38-57-95); Rankings 94-145; slotted #135

Not ranked by a couple of publications, the overage American is set to play for RPI in the NCAA next season.  Because he’s overage his numbers aren’t quite as impressive as they would be otherwise, but he lead the entire league in scoring (something that clearly caught many scouts by surprise)–Michaela Schreiter notes his totals are the highest since Pat Maroon a long time ago.

There was only one scouting profile of him and it indicated he was a good playmaker with good vision and hockey IQ; a puck-battler and decent stickhandler, but his puck skills are average for the NHL level; solid on the forecheck; he needs to improve his skating and defensive skills.

5-133 Max Lajoie (DL 6’0 WHL 62-8-29-37); Rankings 52-102; slotted #72

Tumbled considerably in the draft, perhaps because of his stature (small for a blueliner; although I have seen him listed at 6’1); he was the top scoring defenseman for Swift Current (the alma mater of Zack Smith).

Scouts largely agree on him: a good skater with above average hockey IQ, solid offensively with good puck distribution and a sneaky wrist shot; a good first pass and very calm.  There are disagreements on his defensive play (average to good) and one said he was a bit too passive.

6-163 Markus Nurmi (RW/LW 6’4 Finnish Jr 49-19-17-36); Rankings 69-185; slotted #128

Another player who fell from where I slotted him; the big Finn finished third in scoring on TPS (just behind Juho Virtanen, but well behind Matias Lehtonen in points-per-game; both slightly older, undrafted players).  I’m curious what prompted the Sens to finally draft from Finland, since they haven’t done so in over a decade (Janne Kolehmainen in 2005).  His size is obviously appealing, but there have been plenty of big Finns available over the intervening period, so clearly something changed–maybe they finally had bus fare for scout Mikko Ruutu to tour in his own country (jk).

There were only two scouting reports on him and they are pretty harmonious: he’s a straight-line player, a good forechecker who is very competitive; one said he had good hockey IQ; he’s very raw and there are some differences over where he tops out (either as a depth checker or a more productive two-way forward).

Overall I’m pretty happy with the picks.  In studying the draft we can expect at least one of these picks to pan out, but we can hope for two.  From an AHL-perspective the hope is higher as it’s likely most or all of these players will eventually suit up.  It’s a much better draft for the Sens than 2014, but not with the top-end of 2015–likely similar in value to 2013.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Ottawa Senators Draft Preview

One of the fun things about the draft is making predictions.  Despite the Ottawa organisation having many of the same pieces since Bryan Murray became GM (back in 2007), deciding on who they will pick is a devilish task.  Due to various constraints on my time I didn’t make predictions for last year’s draft, but I’ve managed to squeeze it in this time around.

The framework of how I’ll do this is: 1) look at Ottawa’s trends, 2) use my master list to determine who will be available, 3) provide potential options for each pick and predict which is the best.

History

Craig Smith quite rightly looks at picks after Tim Murray left for Buffalo (although since that was mid-season his fingerprints remain on the 2014 draft; I made a comparison between Tim’s drafts and Ottawa’s not long ago).  With that said there are older trends that indicate the preferences of the Sens since Bryan Murray was hired as GM.  Without further ado, and skipping over the 2007 draft as that’s John Muckler’s draft in all but name, here’s what we have:
2008: Sweden 3, WHL 2, BCHL/CCHL 2
2009: USHL/USHS 3, Sweden 2, WHL 1, QMJHL 1, OHL 1, NCAA 1
2010: QMJHL 1, WHL 1, USHL 1, Sweden 1
2011: OHL 3, Sweden 2, WHL 2, USHL 2, QMJHL 1
2012: OHL 2, USHL/USHS 2, QMJHL 1, WHL 1, Sweden 1
2013: Sweden 2, WHL 1, OHL 1, QMJHL 1, NCAA 1, EJHL 1
2014: USHL/USHS 2, QMJHL 1, Sweden 1, CCHL 1
2015: QMJHL 3, USHL/USHS 3, Sweden 2

Totals
NCAA/USHL/USHS/EJHL 16 (0-4-1-2-2-2-2-3)
Sweden 14 (3-2-1-2-1-2-1-2)
QMJHL 9 (0-1-1-1-1-1-1-3)
WHL 8 (2-1-1-2-1-1-0-0)
OHL 7 (0-1-0-3-2-1-0-0)
BCHL/CCHL 3 (2-0-0-0-0-0-1-0)

Note: Ottawa has not drafted a player under 6’0 since 2011

Notable organisation changes:
-Pierre Dorion was added after the 2007 draft as head scout (arriving from the Rangers)
-Tim Murray left mid-season in 2014, having come to Ottawa at the same time as Dorion (and also from the Rangers)
-Swedish scout Anders Forsberg (now with Buffalo) was with the org for the 08-10 drafts

Trends

In terms of CHL activity the QMJHL has remained steady while both the WHL and OHL have fallen off–I think some of this (particularly the WHL) is purely coincidence as head scout Bob Lowes is a western guy; there’s been a consistent emphasis on American leagues; the org always picks at least one player from Sweden, but no players from any other European league outside of Sweden and no Russians in any context (for example, the Sens gave up the chance to draft Vladimir Tarasenko to acquire David Rundblad in 2010).

What can we expect?  We’re guaranteed at least one QMJHL player, one Swede (what other option do the European scouts have?), and one player from the various US systems.  With that said, here are my predictions:

1-12 – the rankings puts Clayton Keller here, but given his size (5’10) either defenseman Dante Fabbro or Jake Bean (Smith’s choice above) are strong possibilities (despite being on the short side for defensemen, both around 6’0)–both are western players (BCHL and WHL) and I’m inclined to agree with Smith’s pick
2-42 – rankings have WHL defenseman Lucas Johansen here, but I don’t see back-to-back WHL blueliners (or blueliners in general) being selected, so Taylor Raddysh (the OHL rightwinger) is my guess
3-80 – I have another defenseman here (OHLer Sean Day), but I think QMJHL center/RW Maxime Fortier (who isn’t much further down) is more likely despite his size (at 5’10 he would break the 6’0 obsession)
4-103 – WHL center Beck Malenstyn slots here, although I think 6’5 WHLer Hudson Elynuik is more likely (Swedish forward Jesper Bratt is a possibility, but at 5’10 this is a bit of a stretch)
5-133 – 6’7 OHL Belarussian overage defenseman Stepan Falkovksy slots here, but I don’t see him being taken (he’s almost Russian and his numbers aren’t that impressive); USHL defenseman Samuel Rossini is next up, but USDP RW William Lockwood looks more likely to me (the former has traditional size, but his numbers aren’t remarkable)
6-163 – USHS forward Michael Graham slots here, but we’re due for at least one Swede so I like 6’3 overage defenseman Filip Berglund

This leaves me with:
Jake Bean (WHL)
Taylor Raddysh (OHL)
Maxime Fortier (QMJHL)
Hudson Elynuik (WHL)
William Lockwood (USDP)
Filip Berglund (Sweden)

This is a bit light on the US-system side of things and includes two players below the Sens usual height-minimum (Fortier and Lockwood), but it’s close enough to organisational trends to be reasonable.  Ottawa is notorious for taking players who aren’t well known or regarded however, so at least one pick is likely to be a player no one expects.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

ElliotteFriedman

The 6th Sens’ latest podcast was posted a few days ago and had Elliotte Friedman on and he had a number of things to say of which the following interested me:
-he admitted his inclusion of Ottawa as a possible target to move to Quebec was simply speculation (he apparently doesn’t like to use that word to describe it, but that’s what it is)
-he indicated that he believed Bryan Murray did not want to leave his position, implying he was pushed out internally
-he talked about how he thinks getting a coach like Guy Boucher after his first stint in the NHL is a good thing–he’s learned what works and what doesn’t–and as vague as this is it does fit the limited analysis of coaching success that I’ve seen (as I mentioned when Boucher was hired)
-when asked if he thought Ottawa’s talent was too middling to succeed (so they should rebuild), Friedman countered that he thought given the team-friendly contracts the core players were signed on the organisation has to go for it–push for success–which is certainly the sentiment that management has shared; Friedman thinks the Sens have the talent to win, but thinks their style of play has been the problem (which basically boils down to coaching, although that’s not how he framed it)
-on Mike Hoffman: suggested there’s something we can’t see on the ice that’s caused him to get pushed to the fourth line–my guess is friction with his coaches, assuming that’s true, because as Friedman points out Hoffman has incredibly rare skills in today’s NHL; he also added he thought that Boucher’s prior relationship with Hoffman was part of the reason why he was hired
-he said many NHL teams are reluctant to depend on analytics when it comes to big decisions (he said he didn’t think they paid attention to Corsi, but used other metrics to measure the same thing); he echoed a Tweet from Nate Silver that said “I’m not sure that hockey is that much different than random,” which I think is way too flippant and vague to take seriously

Sens logo

A few other Sens items of note:
-Tim Pattyson was moved from his position as the video coach to oversee analytics for the team; it’s an interesting move about which I have mixed feelings: 1) as a trusted voice in the organisation whatever information he brings to the staff should be respected, but 2) as part of the group-think in Ottawa that’s rejected analytics, what will he bring?  (You can read Nichols thoughts on the move here)
-For the first time in a long time the Sens choose not to bring any top picks to the city (I like the move–don’t create room for disappointment in the fanbase)
-Pierre Dorion seems to have moved away (at least publically) from Bryan Murray’s never ending search for a top-six forward, expressing the belief that the team has nine players who could potentially score 20-goals–unless he has a time machine that takes him back to the 1980s I agree with Nichols that this is a pure flight of fancy, but I do like that he’s pulling back from echoing Murray’s unending desire
-Dorion confirmed that Clarke MacArthur is 100% healthy
-Like Nichols I’m puzzled that the Sens are (publically at least) expressing an interest in bringing back Alex Chiasson

2016_NHL_Entry_Draft_logo

Nichols invited Craig Smith to predict who the Sens might pick at the draft this year (as Smith did for Senschirp last year).  Smith does the right thing by looking at the team’s picks since Tim Murray left and noting the Sens interest in size (something I mentioned not long ago), as well as the limitations in where they draft from (nowhere in Europe outside of Sweden, always someone from the Q, etc).  Unfortunately Smith mentions a pretty terrible piece written by his colleague Ryan Wagman (which Craig must not have re-read as it includes an erroneous contradiction to his own thoughts (on size); as for why I have issues with Wagman I’ll refer you here and here; Ryan tends to Google his own name, so hello Ryan).  After various first round profiles (which seem pointless in context, but without them the piece would be extremely short), he eventually concludes the Sens will pick defenseman Jake Bean (no relation to Sean Bean).  He then suggests four potential players as second-round selections (defenseman Cam Dineen, defenseman Adam Fox, winger Cameron Morrison, and forward Jordan Kyrou).

What do I think about the predictions?  I posted my ultimate 2016 draft list yesterday and certainly all the players should be an option at that time, so they’re reasonable suggestions.  I’ll post a brief Sens draft preview to offer my predictions separately.

EK

Erik Karlsson lost the Norris vote and while I think the decision was wrong I don’t really care–I’m not attached to awards–but for those who want some sympathetic outrage Ross A breaks it all down.

matt o'connor

Nick Valentino argues that Sens fans should be patient with Matt O’Connor and not give up after his atrocious rookie season.  He makes the argument his struggles were largely a product of the team in front of him and while he has a point I do think more of an explanation should be offered over why he had so many more problems than the other goaltenders who played in Binghamton (rookie nerves is a possibility).

darrenkramer

Former Sens prospect Darren Kramer was tasered and arrested recently.  The story (via the link) is a fascinating display of Kramer‘s apparent lack of common sense, although until the case goes to court (I imagine it will be settled before that) nothing has been proven.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

Randy Lee talked about a bunch of things and I have a few thoughts:
-22 candidates applied for the Binghamton position and he says interviews were conducted (which contradicts my speculation that they’d simply picked Kleinendorst for the usual nostalgia reasons that have guided the Sens for years); with that said, and regardless of who the other top candidate was, they did go with the feel-good decision that’s based on results from five years ago (rather than looking at recent track records, something comically emphasized in an attempt to say it’s not the reason: “Well, the proven track record. I mean, that year, a lot of those young players he put into really sort of bigger roles and these are guys that were really instrumental in helping us win the Calder Cup Championship … We think that winning is a huge part of development“); Nichols (whose transcription is cited) doesn’t actually delve into Kleinendorst’s struggles since leaving Binghamton, but if “winning” was a true criteria he never would have been hired; it’s also odd that the “fit” with Steve Stirling relevant
-Lee provided absolutely no specifics on how Marc Crawford’s “liaison” position in relation to Binghamton will function despite talking about it at length
-On retaining Stirling: “Definitely, he’s one of those glue guys who you can sort of go to. He’s an extremely hard worker;” I don’t think hard work is something unique to Stirling, so my assumption is that the personal relationships he’s built up with the organisation are what’s keeping him around
-Lee gave Francis Perron the usual nonsense we hear him give to every talented player drafted, “If you don’t change your game, we probably wouldn’t sign you … We don’t want you to score goal six or seven to two. We want you to score the goal that brings your team back or be on the ice when you’re protecting the lead.”  The idea that Perron was only scoring meaningless goals before this is absurd and the idea that the Sens somehow have so much goalscoring talent they don’t need more is equally silly, but Lee is all about the hockey jargon of the day before yesterday (as Nichols points out, “It’s kind of weird that hockey’s a sport where less talented individuals are rarely held to the same level of scrutiny as offensive players“–this is more than weird, it’s just dumb)

My overall takeaway from this is what I’ve long thought: Lee isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed and there’s nothing in his comments that suggests any changes from the way things were done under Bryan Murray.

stayorgo

Nichols writes about Elliotte Friedman’s casual inclusion of Ottawa as a possible candidate to move to Quebec City and I think this point is the proper conclusion:

reach an agreement with the NCC on building a new rink at LeBreton Flats, without an agreement in place, the threat of relocation to a city like Quebec City gives the Senators and the NHL exactly what they want: leverage.

This is all it is–just some smoke to try and shake the trees at the NCC.

prospects

Senators prospect Robert Baillargeon, whose development has badly stalled at Boston University, has transferred to Arizona State for his senior year.  The move is a good one for Baillargeon as a less cluttered lineup will give him an opportunity to show what he can do.

2016_NHL_Entry_Draft_logo

Ross A indulges in some draft speculation and decides that, for no reason in particular, the Sens will ditch their post-Muckler policy and draft a Russian player.  If it happens I’ll eat my hat (fyi, Ruslan Bashkirov played in the Q which is the only reason Murray let Muckler’s scouts pick him).

Free agent signing: Calgary signed Czech goaltender David Rittich

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Kurt Kleinendorst Returns as Binghamton’s Head Coach

6sp-erc neu #RLL

The hiring of Kurt Kleinendorst as head coach in Binghamton is both surprising and yet the least surprising choice for the AHL side of the franchise.  It’s a feel-good move meant to encourage a deflated fanbase (with two terrible recent seasons and news that the franchise will likely leave), but also the path of least resistance.  Kleinendorst was coaching ERC Ingolstadt in the DEL (Germany) as an mid-season replacement (for Emanuel Viveiros in late November).  He took the team from a 6-10-4 start and went 17-12-3 with a surprise run to the semi-finals of the DEL playoffs.  Elite Prospects shows him as having another season on his contract with Ingolstadt, but if Kleinendorst was really interested in coaching in Europe he’d seek out higher profile (and paying) jobs in the KHL or NLA, something he’s quite obviously avoided until he was left unemployed by Minnesota.

Those of you with long memories will remember I favoured the idea of promoting Kleinendorst to the head coaching job in Ottawa rather than bringing in Paul MacLean.  At the time I argued that one of the main reasons MacLean was chosen instead was because Bryan Murray was familiar with him (from their days in Anaheim) and you can say much the same thing with Kleinendorst’s hire.  Throughout Murray’s tenure the organisation showed a preference for known quantities (eg trading for a burned out Martin Lapointe or all the work done for Luke Richardson).  I thought Dorion might be turning over a new leaf, but with Kleinendorst actually reaching out to the organisation the decision became all too easy for him (the 22-person list the org is touting means nothing more than that–I’ve seen no reports of interviews or actual process).  Was this the right decision?  Let’s look at his record since leaving Binghamton:

2012-13 NCAA Alabama-Huntsville 3-21-1 .125 (fired after the season)
2013-14 AHL Iowa 27-36-13 .441
2014-15 AHL Iowa 2-10-0 .167 (fired)
2015-16 DEL Ingolstadt 17-12-3 .580 (mid-season replacement)

None of this is particularly impressive and if you look at his coaching career outside his Calder Cup win there’s not much to get excited about.  That aside, you can argue results are often more about the lineup than the coach (although following that line of logic too far and a coach is never responsible for anything).  When I looked at coaching success earlier this year it was clear that a good coach can’t make a bad roster better–what they can do is take a middling or good roster and make it achieve its potential.  Oddly, either young inexperienced coaches or experienced coaches with losing histories statistically have the larger and better impact on rosters (with the exception, at the NHL level, of Cup-winning coaches not named Randy Carlyle).  Kleinendorst fits the latter two categories (although the articles I read did not examine Calder Cup winning success), so perhaps despite a non-existent coaching search and an unimpressive coaching record this will work out.  It’s worth keeping in mind that whatever system Kleinendorst prefers he’ll be running Guy Boucher’s system.  In the end I remain dubious but hopeful about the move.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

2016_NHL_Entry_Draft_logo

My annual draft material is in process–a fun time of year for me, but a hell of a lot of work.  For any and all who enjoy it and wish to support it you can do so via Patreon.

zack smith

Trevor Shackles asks a good question: what do the Sens have in Zack Smith?  It’s a long piece with a fair amount of data, but can be summarized this way:

shooting over 20% isn’t sustainable for even the best of the best … scoring at a clip like he did last year has some luck involved … Beginning on the 51st game of the year, Smith began to mostly play with Mark Stone [and] Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and that’s when he really began to succeed … I think I can point to Smith and call him a good supplementary player that can chip in

I suggest you to read the entire piece as it’s quite long, but the above represents the key points.  Smith had his career season buoyed by talented linemates (especially Stone).  I don’t think Trevor emphasizes enough that 25 goals isn’t just an NHL high, but something Smith has never done at any level of hockey.  A few things become clear when you look at the whole picture: 1) the anchors in the bottom-six caused problems not just for Smith but for Pageau as well (namely Alex ChiassonChris Neil, and Curtis Lazar), 2) despite having spent a lot of time as part of the dreaded trio of Greening-Smith-Neil, it’s his wingers who were the larger part of his struggles, 3) I was advocating moving Smith while his value was high, but perhaps there’s enough behind beyond these career numbers to remain.

pierre dorion

Nichols goes over Pierre Dorion’s comments about the draft on radio.  Unfortunately there’s not a lot here and Dorion wasn’t asked any interesting questions (will the team finally draft outside North America/Sweden; how will the draft improve with no meaningful additions to the scouting staff; how will the draft differ from when Bryan Murray was GM; etc).  The 2015 draft showed a disturbing tendency towards size over talent, but just one year isn’t enough to make a trend.  I agree with Nichols that this comment is disturbing:

we’re also looking at maybe improving our depth – having, maybe looking at getting a bit more experience. I don’t like to use the excuse that we’re young. I don’t think we’re young anymore. I think we’re a team that is looking to hit its stride and compete against some of the better teams in the league. If we can improve our depth, I think that’s definitely… looking at players that can play multiple roles on our team, that might be a bit more what we’re looking to do.

The last thing this team needs is to follow Murray’s tendency to hire veterans past their prime to take up roster spots, nor is it the team’s missing link to playoff contention depth.  Ottawa needs more talent and I’m also not keen on Dorion parroting Melnyk’s constant dictum of playoffs playoffs playoffs–know what you are and work with that.

negativeno

Ross A continues to link this site which is much appreciated–the reach of The Silver Seven is far greater than mine–and he mentioned that I’d criticised his praise for Luke P’s piece for WTYKY.  The criticism is more about omission–I have no idea what specifically Ross was praising–the peon to Chris Phillips, the criticism of the fanbase, or all of it?  I wanted more context (even if the answer is to simply boost WTYKY’s viewership).

Writing the above makes me wonder more broadly about how fans feel about strong opinions.  Andrew (at WTYKY) is one of the only writers who gets as strident as I do, although there are certainly plenty of Don Cherry-clones for whom yelling disguises empty diatribes.  Most traditional media simply parrots the opinions of the organisation they cover (underwriting the pulse of hockey forums and blogs).  For myself I’ve always looked for opinions backed by analysis–the best facts and information available from which good arguments are made.  Do fans want rainbows and unicorns?  I really don’t know–sport is entertainment so perhaps that tickles their fancy more–it’s hard to say.

Free agent signing: Jonas Gunnarsoon (Nashville) via Malmo in the SHL.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

Tom-Pyatt

In what appears to be a nod to the new coaching staff, Ottawa signed former Ranger pick (4-107/05) Tom Pyatt, younger brother of Taylor, who spent the last two seasons playing for Geneva in the Swiss league.  Prior to his time in Europe he spent four unproductive seasons in the NHL (mostly for Tampa Bay, 205-25-24-49 PPG 0.23).  Unquestionably he’s Binghamton-bound and if there’s a potential silver lining in his middling career AHL numbers (156-32-51-83 PPG 0.53) it’s that in his final half-season in Hamilton he was on a torrid pace (41-13-22-35).  It’s worth pointing out the 09-10 Hamilton roster was stacked, so that impacted his production.  Realistically Pyatt is a borderline second-liner in the AHL and seemingly not the kind of asset Binghamton really needs, but I’ll hold off calling it a bad move until the roster is filled out.

bigrig_logo

I’m not sure what WTYKY as a site is anymore, but Luke P decided it was a good idea to attack the fanbase as a preamble to praising Chris Phillips (who not long after retired).  I don’t want to dwell on it too much, but let’s go over it briefly:

Essentially Sens fans have adopted the worst qualities of the fanbases that surround us

Luke’s evidence for this is…he offers none (just anecdotal references to radio show call-ins and social media).  The characterization is meant as a backdrop for praising the Big Rig, but it seems an odd sort of crutch to use.  I also remain puzzled by his inability to separate criticism of someone’s performance as a professional (in this case, as a hockey player) and who they are as a person (we’ve seen this in recent discussions of Luke Richardson and Mark Borowiecki, for instance).  Phillips might be a saintly human being, but that’s inconsequential to who he was as a player.  Ross A has praised the post without explanation (presumably referring to the comments on the Big Rig rather than the description of the fanbase–after all, The Silver Seven can’t get too negative).

fail

Not surprisingly we hear that the Sens are likely to move Alex Chiasson, one of the poster-boys for how badly Murray has been beaten in trades during his time in Ottawa.  Nichols goes through his time with the team, including perceptions and organisational hype, but it can be summed up best this way:

He was given ample opportunity to play on the power play and play even strength minutes alongside skilled players. He just didn’t get the job done.

Amen.

[A late add: Mikael Wikstrand signed a four-year extension with Farejestad; that his future with Ottawa was over was never in doubt, but with the length of the contract means the Sens have surrendered any ability to make use of him as an asset short-term (they continue to control his rights, but with no out-clause in the contract they can make no use of it until it ends.  A suitably botched end to a ridiculous situation.]

More free agent signings: Tim Heed was signed by San Jose (identified on my FA list from a year ago), as was Yohann Auvitu by New Jersey.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

pierre dorion

The Nichols machine recorded some Pierre Dorion patter from last week and I have a few thoughts about it:
1) why would you bother talking to Alex Chiasson?  Wash your hands of him and move on
2) I’m glad he doesn’t want to go to arbitration with Mike Hoffman (I enjoyed this as well, “I think our fans know that the relationship between Mike and the previous coach or previous coaches wasn’t the greatest“–yes Pierre, we know that)
3) I’m happy Dorion wouldn’t commit to signing either Quentin Shore or Gabriel Gagne (although his comments suggest more interest in the latter, which makes sense)
4) unfortunately Randy Lee is going to remain Binghamton’s GM, so the hope for AHL fans is that Dorion’s influence provides the team with decent talent (and please no more Danny Hobbs)
5) they are looking at experienced coaches for Binghamton rather than someone like Luke Richardson, which is a positive step
6) I’m not entirely sure how Marc Crawford will function as a “liaison” for the AHL coaching staff–does that make him functionally an assistant GM for Binghamton or is he simply Dorion’s go-between?  The facets of this are unclear to me, although it’s easy to understand why they want to make sure Bingo doesn’t play Richardson’s system anymore (sticking with Boucher’s)
7) Nichols doesn’t dwell on the obvious conclusion (due to the aforementioned reluctance to criticise Richardson), but clearly Dorion wasn’t happy that Richardson wasn’t imitating the NHL style of play in Binghamton (otherwise there would be no need for Crawford to be a liaison to ensure it)

boucher

The early fan love for Guy Boucher is amusing (he does have the best scar among NHL head coaches).  Nichols has a hard time not gushing and there’s no question Boucher’s a great talker and as a fan I want to buy in too.  If memory serves the Sens had interest in Boucher back in 2010, but wouldn’t give the term Tampa Bay offered (four years).  I can’t say I’m nearly as excited by the presence of Marc Crawford, whose amply demonstrated at the end of his NHL tenure that he had lost touch with what works in the NHL, but as an assistant that’s not very relevant.

It all sounds so good, but like any coach who’s introduced after his predecessor crashed and burned in the previous season, the newness and sheen of the replacement has yet to wear off. Optimism abounds and it will take some time before fans and the media can micro-analyze Boucher’s actions and identify his own shortcomings.

Exactly.  Mid-season we can take a stab at it.

negativeno

At the bottom of a Ross A piece he says something I found surprising:

There’s been a lot of complaints that we’ve been too negative as a blog this past season. I know i contributed to that.

I assume the first sentence is incomplete and should say “There have been a lot of reader complaints etc.”  Really?  The entire site strikes me as positive in tone–just how fluffy do they need to be?  Obviously The Silver Seven needs to be beholden to their readership, but it’s a sad state of affairs if that many people need a rose-coloured view of the team.  Perhaps it’s a common sentiment for fans in this city?  You’d think the incessant organisational pap from the regular media would be enough.

Speaking of Ross A, he posted the individual (as opposed to collective) grades given by The Silver Seven staff and I want to point out that my old buddy Jeff Ulmer gave Max McCormick the same grade he gave Erik Karlsson (an A)–he wasn’t asked about this oddity in the Q&A, sadly, but as someone who watched  McCormick in a Binghamton context all year I wouldn’t give him an “A” if you put a gun to my head–he’s a good grinder who tops out as a fourth liner in the NHL–nothing to get excited about.  I was also entertained by a few quotes about Mark Borowiecki:

[Adnan] There is nothing useful that Borowiecki does well compared to NHL players. I think Callum is better than Boro in some ways. I don’t think there has ever been a defenceman less deserving of an NHL roster spot since I have been a Senators fan.

[NKB] Borowiecki did nothing this year to convince me he was an NHL-calibre defenseman. He’s actually a decent skater, but he simply hasn’t improved his play with the puck and the Sens have a terrible time breaking out of their end when he’s on the ice. Taken all together, he’s just not capable at this level. I can’t give anything but an F to someone who I don’t consider to be an NHL-level player.

[Callum] Every argument I’ve ever heard in favour of Borowiecki has to do with his fighting, leadership and effort. Those are the three attributes I look at the least when evaluating a player. The arguments usually end with the other person saying “you just don’t understand.” And that’s fair. Because it’s true. I don’t understand why Borowiecki is an everyday NHLer.

This tickled the cockles of my heart–I agree with all three on the Borocop–may he fester in the pressbox throughout 2016-17.  Incidentally, I’ve mentioned before that I’m not fond of grading systems (eg here) since they almost never have an actual rubric behind them, but Ary M actually created one for himself and it’s pretty similar to what I use.

marcus sorsensen

Former Sens pick Marcus Sorensen has been signed by San Jose as a free agent–he was on my list of potential signings and it will be interesting to see how he does with the Sharks.

Minnesota signed Hungarian goaltender Adam Vay as a free agent out of the incredibly obscure Hungarian league (the Mol Liga)–before we get too excited about the selection he did spend two years playing US junior hockey and I suspect his size (6’5) is one of the major reasons behind the signing.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

NHL Draft Success (2005-2009)

draft

There have been a sprinkle of articles over the years reviewing draft accuracy, but I’ve always had issues with the way they are constructed. Examinations of the draft that cover a long period of time fail to account for the changes in the league and the draft itself, so they don’t really work (you’ll see 20 and 30 year swaths as if everything about those periods is the same). When articles cover more recent drafts (Hockey Futures does them at five-year intervals) they are forced to make judgement calls on players whose futures are yet to be defined (just one example, Carl Soderberg didn’t jump to the NHL until he was 27).  All this preamble is to make two key points: 1) the attitude and approach to the draft in the NHL changed seismically after the 2004-05 lockout (due to the cap), 2) the typical make-or-break moment for a draft pick varies considerably.  On top of that, the raw overview I’m about to give is simply a window into more in depth analysis, since I’m not focused on all the nuances of scouting departments and only lightly touch on management changes.  What follows is a very broad examination of levels of success within the draft by team.  I’ve cut off at 2009 because even the ’10 draft class still hasn’t completed their cycle of development (’09 could still see some slight adjustments and you’ll see below there are players in the ’06 class still up in the air).  All of this presupposes the importance of the draft, something that could not be assumed at points in NHL history (there have been times when teams could buy their way out of trouble).

My framework: what is a successful pick?  There are a lot of complicated ways to decide, but the simplest is to say any skater who has played 200+ NHL games has returned value on the investment (I also make a few judgement calls, particularly when it comes to goaltenders).  Two and a half seasons of NHL work isn’t the only metric you could use, but it’s a good place to start.

2005 (here)
First Round
18 players have played 200+ games, including 9 of the top-10 (Luc Bourdon tragically died and is the only exception).  Only 3 players never suited up in the NHL (Marek Zagrapan #13, Sasha Pokulok #14, and Alex Bourret #16)
Second Round
8 players hit 200+ games (the best are James Neal #33 and Paul Statsny ##44), with 12 never hitting the ice
Third Round
6 players hit the mark (the best are Kris Letang #62 and Jonathan Quick #72; I’m including Ben Bishop #85); 12 never played
Fourth Round
7 players have reached the plateau (the best is Keith Yandle #105); 17 never played; Chris VandeVelde is 3 games away so I’ve included him in the total
Fifth Round
5 players hit the mark (the best are Darren Helm #132 and Nathan Gerbe #142); 23 never played
Sixth Round
Only Matt D’Agostini qualifies; 22 players never played
Seventh Round
5 players reached the plateau; 26 players never played

Here’s the success by team:
4 – Columbus (MacLean), Montreal (Gainey)
3 – Detroit (Holland), Dallas (Armstrong), Pittsburgh (Patrick), St. Louis (Pleau), New York Rangers (Sather)
2 – San Jose (Wilson), Ottawa (Muckler), Los Angeles (Taylor), Arizona/Phoenix (Barnett), Toronto (Ferguson), Nashville (Poile), Buffalo (Regier), Chicago (Pulford/Tallon), Edmonton (Lowe), New Jersey (Lamoriello)
1 – Anaheim (Coates/Burke), Carolina (Rutherford), Minnesota (Risebrough), Philadelphia (Clarke), Atlanta/Winnipeg (Waddell), Colorado (Lacroix), Vancouver (Nonis), Boston (O’Connell)
0 – Washington (McPhee), New York Islanders (Milbury), Florida (Keenan), Calgary (Sutter), Tampa Bay (Feaster)

2006 (here)
First Round
20 players hit the plateau, including all of the top-ten picks; 3 players did not hit the ice for an NHL game (Mark Mitera #19, David Fischer #20, and Dennis Persson #24)
Second Round
9 players hit the mark, but I’d throw Jhonas Enroth in there (so 10); 14 players never played
Third Round
5 players have reached the plateau, but another should join them (Brian Strait #65, so 6); 16 never hit the ice
Fourth Round
2 players (Matt Beleskey #112 and James Reimer #99); 22 players never played
Fifth Round
No player has hit the 200 game-mark (or even 100); 23 never played; Chad Johnson #125 was the best player picked
Sixth Round
4 players hit the mark (Andrew MacDonald #160, Viktor Stalberg #161, and Mathieu Perreault #177), with Leo Komarov #180 likely getting there (I’ve included him); 23 prospects never played
Seventh Round
2 players qualify (Derek Dorsett #189 and Erik Condra #211); 24 players never played

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
5 – Toronto (Ferguson)
4 – Washington (McPhee)
3 – Boston (O’Connell/Gorton/Chiarelli), Columbus (MacLean), Ottawa (Muckler)
2 – St. Louis (Pleau), New York Islanders (Milbury/Smith), Minnesota (Risebrough), Los Angeles (Taylor/Lombardi), Pittsburgh (Patrick/Shero), Buffalo (Regier)
1 – Chicago (Pulford), Arizona/Phoenix (Barnett/Maloney), Florida (Keenan), Atlanta/Winnipeg (Waddell), Vancouver (Nonis), Colorado (Lacroix/Giguere), Philadelphia (Clarke), San Jose (Wilson), Edmonton (Lowe), Detroit (Holland), New York Rangers (Sather), Carolina (Rutherford), Anaheim (Burke), Montreal (Gainey)
0 – Tampa Bay (Feaster), Calgary (Sutter), New Jersey (Lamoriello), Dallas (Armstrong), Nashville (Poile)

2007 (here)
First Round
19 players hit the mark, including 9 of the top-ten; 5 picks never played a game (Alexei Cherepanov #17 died; Logan MacMillan #19, Angelo Esposito #20, Patrick White #25, and Nick Ross #30)
Second Round
4 players have reached the plateau; 14 never played a game
Third Round
3 players have reached 200 games (Yannick Weber #73, Alex Killorn #77, and Joakim Andersson #88), with Robert Bortuzzo and Corey Tropp having a slim chance to get there (I didn’t include them in the totals); 16 players never hit the ice
Fourth Round
3 players qualify, with Steven Kampfer #93, Brad Malone #105, and Colton Sceviour #112 getting there (so 6); 16 never played
Fifth Round
2 players (Jamie Benn #159 and Jake Muzzin #141) reach the mark; Chris Terry #132 has a shot to join them (not included); 23 have never played
Sixth Round
4 players qualify; Anthony Peluso #160 could join them (not included); 17 prospects never played
Seventh Round
2 players (Carl Gunnarsson #194 and Justin Braun #201) reached the mark; 24 have never played; there’s a chance Paul Postma #205 will eventually get there (not included)

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – Los Angeles (Lombardi), Montreal (Gainey)
3 – San Jose (Wilson), St. Louis (Pleau), Colorado (Giguere)
2 – Edmonton (Lowe), Philadelphia (Holmgren), Detroit (Holland), Dallas (Armstrong)
1 – Chicago (Pulford), Carolina (Rutherford), Pittsburgh (Shero), Buffalo (Regier), Arizona/Phoenix (Maloney), Washington (McPhee), Columbus (Howson/MacLean), Florida (Martin), Nashville (Poile), Tampa Bay (Feaster), Calgary (Sutter), New Jersey (Lamoriello), New York Rangers (Sather), Toronto (Ferguson), Anaheim (Burke)
0 – Ottawa (Br.Murray/Muckler), Boston (Chiarelli), Vancouver (Nonis), Atlanta/Winnipeg (Waddell), New York Islanders (Snow), Minnesota (Risebrough)

2008 (here)
First Round
18 players have reached 200 games, including 9 of the top-ten; four prospects never played (Kyle Beach #11, Chet Pickard #18, Anton Gustafsson #21, and Daultan Leveille #29)
Second Round
7 players have reached the plateau, with Vyacheslav Voinov (#32) joining them absent his legal problems–I’d also include Jake Allen (#34), so 9; 7 players have never suited up
Third Round
4 players (Michael Stone #69, Lance Bouma #78, Zack Smith #79, Adam Henrique #82), and Jori Lehtera #65 if he can stay healthy (so 5); 17 prospects never made it
Fourth Round
Four have reached 200 games; 15 players never suited up
Fifth Round
Two players (Matt Martin #148 and Matt Calvert #127) qualify, but Philip Larsen (#149) should join them this season (so 3); Mark Borowiecki (#139) could join them, but is not included; 18 prospects never played
Sixth Round
4 players qualify (Jared Spurgeon #156, Cam Atkinson #157, Tommy Wingels #177, and Zac Rinaldo #178), with Ben Smith #169 likely joining them in the upcoming season (so 5); Mark Barbeiro (#152) has a shot to make it; 19 players never suited up
Seventh Round
2 players make it (Jason Demers (#186) and Matt Bartkowski (#190)); I’ll include Anders Lindback (#207) as well (so 3)

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – New York Islanders (Snow)
3 – Nashville (Poile), Ottawa (Br.Murray), New York Rangers (Sather), St. Louis (Pleau)
2 – Buffalo (Regier), Anaheim (Burke/Bo.Murray), Washington (McPhee), Columbus (Howson), San Jose (Wilson), Los Angeles (Lombardi), Calgary (Sutter), Philadelphia (Holmgren), Arizona/Phoenix (Maloney), Toronto (Ferguson/Burke)
1 – Tampa Bay (Feaster), Atlanta/Winnipeg (Waddell), Vancouver (Nonis/Gillis), Edmonton (Lowe), Minnesota (Risebrough), New Jersey (Lamoriello), Detroit (Holland), Chicago (Pulford), Florida (Martin), Dallas (Armstrong/Hull-Jackson), Boston (Chiarelli)
0 – Colorado (Giguere), Carolina (Rutherford), Montreal (Gainey), Pittsburgh (Shero)

2009 (here)
First Round
18 players have hit the threshold (including 9 of the top-10), with another 3 who will get there (so 21); only one player never played (Philippe Paradise #27), with Scott Glennie (#8) as the only top-10 bust
Second Round
6 have reached the threshold, with another 4 on their way (so 10), with a chance Richard Panik (#52) will join them (not included); 9 players never made it
Third Round
3 players hit the mark, with Brayden McNabb #66, Andrej Nestrasil (#75), Kevin Connauton (#83), and Nicolas Deslauriers (#84) likely to make it (so 7); 12 prospects never made it
Fourth Round
6 reach the threshold (including Sami Vatanen); Linden Vey (#96) and Ben Chiarot (#120) have a solid chance to get there (so 8); 13 players never suited up
Fifth Round
3 players hit the mark (including Mike Hoffman); 21 players never suited up
Sixth Round
Anders Lee #152 should get there; 18 players didn’t make it
Seventh Round
2 players have or will hit the mark (Jordan Nolan #186 and Erik Haula #182)

Success by team:
5- Los Angeles (Lombardi)
4 – Ottawa (Br.Murray), New York Islanders (Snow), Nashville (Poile)
3 – Buffalo (Regier), Anaheim (Bo.Murray), Colorado (Giguere/Sherman), Washington (McPhee)
2 – Minnesota (Risebrough), Columbus (Howson), Dallas (Hull-Jackson/Nieuwendyk), Edmonton (Tambellini), Chicago (Pulford), New Jersey (Lamoriello), Detroit (Holland), Atlanta/Winnipeg (Waddell)
1 – Tampa Bay (Lawton), Arizona/Phoenix (Maloney), Toronto (Burke), Florida (Martin/Sexton), New York Rangers (Sather), Pittsburgh (Shero), Vancouver (Gillis)
0 – Boston (Chiarelli), St. Louis (Pleau), Calgary (Sutter), Carolina (Rutherford), Montreal (Gainey), Philadelphia (Holmgren), and San Jose (Wilson) with 0

I’ve been writing this piece for years in the hope that others will dig deeper, but as yet I’ve seen nothing like it.  A few things continue to be true: coverage of Europe still lags behind North America (likely due to cost) and smaller players still need to do more to be selected (both these categories are where the majority of undrafted success stories come from).

Overview
Round-by-round success rate (with year-by-year in brackets):
First: 96/150 (64%) (18/20/19/18/21)
Second: 41/154 (26%) (8/10/4/8/10)
Third: 27/150 (18%) (6/6/3/5/7)
Fourth: 26/153 (16%) (7/2/5/4/8)
Fifth: 13/157 (8%) (5/0/2/3/3)
Sixth: 15/153 (9%) (1/4/4/5/1)
Seventh: 14/158 (8%) (5/2/2/3/2)

The scaling between rounds is not surprising.  Of the 49 top-ten picks (excluding Bourdon for obvious reasons), only 3 were misses (HamillFilatov, and Glennie), making them 94% reliable.  Excluding the top-ten, the first round is still significantly stronger than the second round (50/99, 50%, excluding Cherepanov for the same obvious reason).  There should be a steady decline throughout the rounds, but between the fifth-seventh it’s a crapshoot with no meaningful difference in terms of success (this could be due to sample size or there may be something else going on–my guess is either the fifth is where they start swinging for the fences or it’s the last round where team’s are conservative).

Team Performance (the average is 8)
15 – Los Angeles
12 – Columbus, Ottawa
11 – Toronto, St. Louis
10 – Nashville, New York Islanders, Washington, Buffalo
9 – Detroit, Montreal, New York Rangers
8 – Colorado, Edmonton, San Jose, Anaheim, Dallas
7 – Arizona, Chicago, Philadelphia
6 – Minnesota, New Jersey, Pittsburgh
5 – Winnipeg/Atlanta, Boston
4 – Florida, Vancouver
3 – Calgary, Carolina, Tampa Bay

It’s difficult to imagine any scouting staff completely whiffing on an entire year, but it happens (an average of 5 per season (5/5/6/5/7)).  It’s important to note these numbers don’t distinguish the quality of players and there are certainly a number of prospects who were in the NHL much longer than made any sense.  The average successful pick by team per year is c.1.5, so a good year for scouts is 2 NHL players, while there should always be at least one.

There’s plenty of room to assess GM’s independent of their teams (from 05-09 thirteen teams have had the same management in place).  A quick glance at the variance in performance for those with GM changes:

LA: Taylor 2/1; Lombardi 13/4 (the 2006 draft would have included some or all of Taylor’s scouting staff, with 2 panning out)
Columbus: MacLean 7/2, Howson 5/3 (the above caveat for 2007, where 1 player panned out)
Ottawa: Muckler 5/2, Br.Murray 7/3 (the above for 2007, with 0)
Toronto: Ferguson 8/3, Burke 3/2 (the above caveat for 2008, with 2)
New York Islanders: Milbury 0/1, Smith 2/1 (the above for 2006, with 2), Snow 8/3
Colorado: Lacroix 1/1 Giguere 4/3 (the above for 2006, with 1), Sherman 3/1 (the above for 2009, with 3)
Edmonton: Lowe 6/4, Tambellini 2/1
Arizona/Phoenix: Barnett 1/1, Maloney 6/4 (the above for 2006, with 1)
Anaheim: Burke 3/3 Bo.Murray 5/2 (the above for 2005 via Coates, with 1; the same for 2008 with 2)
Philadelphia: Clarke 2/2, Holmgren 5/3
Chicago: Tallon 5/4 (the above for 2005 via Pulford, with 2), Pulford 2/1
Dallas: Armstrong 5/3 Hull-Jackson 1/1 (the above for 2008, with 1), Nieuwendyk 2/1 (the above for 2009)
Pittsburgh: Patrick 3/1, Shero 3/4 (the above for 2006, with 2)
Boston: O’Connell 1/1, Chiarelli 4/4 (the above for 2006, plus interim GM Gorton, with 3)
Vancouver: Nonis 2/3 Gillis 2/2 (the above for 2008, with 1)
Florida: Keenan 1/2 Martin 2/2, Sexton 1/1 (the above for 2009 with 1)
Tampa Bay: Feaster 2/4, Lawton 1/1

The teams where the GM remained the same:
St. Louis (Pleau) 11/5
Nashville (Poille) 10/5
Washington (McPhee) 10/5
Buffalo (Regier) 10/5
Detroit (Holland) 9/5
New York Rangers (Sather) 9/5
Montreal (Gainey) 9/5
San Jose (Wilson) 8/5
Minnesota (Risebrough) 6/5
New Jersey (Lamoriello) 6/5
Winnipeg/Atlanta (Waddell) 5/5
Calgary (Sutter) 3/5
Carolina (Rutherford) 3/5

Since top-ten picks are essentially gimmies, GMs who have those picks have their numbers inflated, so in terms of what they can do outside of that here are the adjusted numbers:

(Average is 6)
12 – Los Angeles (-3)
10 – Ottawa (-2), Buffalo
9 – Columbus (-3), Toronto (-2), Nashville (-1), Washington (-1), Detroit, New York Rangers, St. Louis (-2)
8 – Montreal (-1), Dallas
7 – New York Islanders (-3), Colorado (-1), Anaheim (-1)
6 – Edmonton (-2), San Jose (-2), Philadelphia (-1), New Jersey
4 – Chicago (-3), Minnesota (-2), Pittsburgh (-2), Boston (-1)
3 – Arizona (-4), Winnipeg/Atlanta (-2), Vancouver (-1), Calgary
2 – Florida (-2), Carolina (-1)
1 – Tampa Bay (-2)

Arizona had the most top-ten picks (with 4), which forms the majority of their success; Los Angeles (which had 3), still produced a huge number of successful prospects, so those are the two clearest examples of teams whose scouts true colours are revealed this way.

All of this just scratches the surface.  Further analysis and time is required to draw conclusions, but it sheds some interesting light on the draft in the current era.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

cartoon-report-card

Nichols posted a great (and long) State of the Union piece on where the Sens are and what their year was like.  There’s a lot to absorb, but virtually nothing to disagree with (perhaps he could have included the insanity of Mikael Wikstrand‘s situation, but I suppose that would make the article even longer).  In essence we stand on the precipice of whether or not Pierre Dorion will truly be his own man as GM (in a positive, progressive sense), or not, along with how much Eugene Melnyk’s insanity will impact what happens.

fail

It’s not surprisingly the Sens lost out on the Drake Caggiula sweepstakes–despite the opportunities the Sens soft lineup offers, it makes a ton of sense for the NCAA free agent to want to play with the staggering forward talent available to him in Edmonton.  There’s no guarantee Caggiula will be a great NHL player–it’s a rare thing even for hyped NCAA forwards–but for the prospect-starved Sens he would have been a great addition.

boucher

Just as unsurprising as the above was Bruce Boudreau choosing greener pastures (Minnesota), as the Sens balked at the term he wanted (4 years).  I mentioned a few weeks ago when the coaching search started that I wasn’t going to get excited by who the Sens interviewed, so never spent time speculating on what he could or couldn’t do if he was hired.  As it turned out the Sens have landed Guy Boucher (giving him 3 years), a highly touted coach back in the day who has been plying his trade in Europe since getting bounced out of Tampa Bay.  Nichols dives deep on who Boucher was in his first head coaching gig–after one good season he fell off the rails on the heels of defensive struggles (some of which can be blamed on goaltending).  Damian Cristodero talks about Boucher’s infamous 1-3-1 style, believing that after his first season teams adapted to it.  When I researched coaching success back in March I came up with this:

hiring younger, more inexperienced coaches has a more positive impact (presumably a more adaptive group); coaches with historical losing records also provide as boost, as do (paradoxically) those who have won a Stanley Cup

At 44 Boucher is young and with less than 3-seasons in the NHL he’s not heavily experienced, but you have to take all these things with a grain of salt.  Ultimately the impact of a coach is limited by the talent available to him, so that’s the next challenge for Pierre Dorion.

curtis lazar

It has been clear to me since he was drafted that Curtis Lazar is an underwhelming player given his pedigree (first-round pick).  Trevor Shackles does a deep dive to look at the comparables and arrives at the horror show you’d expect for someone with no hands (if you read through the scouting reports prior to him being drafted none of his offensive struggles are a surprise).  He’s basically a Senators special: a physical, hard-worker who struggles to generate offence.  There was no reason to rush him into the NHL, but Bryan Murray’s inconsistent attitude towards prospects struck here.  There’s always hope for him to blossom I suppose, but I think he’ll remain a third or fourth line forward.

Binghamton_Senators_svg

A little Binghamton note in relation to the potential move of the franchise to Belleville via Jeff Ulmer transcription:

All I know is that the AHL is committed to being here for not only the three years we have right now but we’re working on adding another six. The AHL is very, very committed to Broome County, I’m not even, I’m not worried about having an AHL team here, I know we will.

The key here is that Tom Mitchell didn’t say the Senators are committed to being in Binghamton, but the AHL.  I take this as a tacit admission that he’s aware that the Sens are interested in moving, but confident if that happens another franchise will take their place.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)