Senators News: April 15th

-I have to wonder if the Rangers are happy with the turn the series has taken.  Tortorella made a conscious decision to play on (and over) the edge, perhaps with the expectation that Ottawa wouldn’t respond.  After the circus last night he’s got to realise that even if the Rangers win the series his team is going to be in no condition to take on a serious contender in the second round.  I’d guess if Tortorella could do it all over again he would have played a more passive, trapping style relying on counter-punching and his goaltending, ignoring all the nonsense that’s happened up to this point.  All that being said, the on-ice officials could cool the jets of the series in a hurray if they chose to end scrums after the whistle and aggressively make calls on borderline hits–that may be the message the NHL sends in game three (or it may not).

Peter Raaymakers points out that a lot of the nonsense last night was Boyle‘s fault, “had Boyle simply answered the bell for his actions and dropped his gloves early the whole situation would have ended out better for both teams. Neither Carkner nor Dubinsky would have been kicked out of the game, and the hatchet would have been (mostly) buried. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. I find it hard to fault Carkner much here. First off, this wasn’t a decision he made: Paul MacLean made this decision when he dressed his fighters. Secondly, it shouldn’t have been an issue nearly as big as it was, because Boyle should simply have matched up with Carkner. Yes, Boyle is an inexperienced fighter and Carkner is a league heavyweight, but Boyle has a height and weight advantage and could have simply tied up Carkner‘s arms until the linesmen jumped in. Done. Thirdly, he threw two glancing blows and then five body shots; this wasn’t a massacre, it was a game of pattycake. Boyle was, obviously, no worse for wear (he fought and scored later in the game), and likely took more punishing hits at other points in the game. Most importantly, consider this: Teams will do anything they can to win playoff games. That’s why Brian Boyle roughed up Erik Karlsson in the first place–he figured he’d get away with it. Unless referees clamp down and restrict things, teams will push the limits of what they’re able to do in order to gain an advantage, however slight.”  I’d go even further and say that if the officials had properly penalised Boyle or if the NHL had done something after the game, none of the enforcement would have been necessary.

-A bit of trivia: Chris Neil is the first player since 1989 to score an overtime goal and have a fighting major in a playoff game.

Joy Lindsay Tweets the black aces called up from Binghamton: Robin Lehner, Mark Borowiecki, Eric Gryba, Patrick Wiercioch, Mike Hoffman, Andre Petersson, Stephane Da CostaDavid Dziurzynski, and Mika Zibanejad.  No real surprises (except, perhaps, Dziurzynski).  Healthy players not included: Cannone, Blood, Grant, Schneider, Puempel, Schira, Cowick, Parrish, Lessard, Conboy, and McKenna.

Joy also Tweets that Binghamton’s veterans (Conboy, Locke, McKenna, and Parrish) expressed an interest in returning to the team if the Sens wanted to retain them.  It’s an interesting sentiment since neither could expect call-ups to Ottawa if they remained.  I have no idea what management will do, but other than Mark Parrish I could see the other three retained.

-I like the TSN panel, but they missed the boat on why the playoffs have been vicious and fight-filled.  The panel made the supposition that it’s simply a trend based on the Bruins winning last year–rough and tumble is the way to go.  To my mind what’s clear is that the NHL promised to police the game this year and failed utterly–there are no serious consequences so that requires teams to fight to protect themselves.  Why wouldn’t a third or fourth-liner take out the opposition’s best player when they are only going to miss one or two games?  If the NHL doesn’t step in the next couple of days things are going to get even more ridiculous.  What continues to frustrate me is so many talking heads in the media saying it’s simply “playoff hockey”.  No it isn’t.  Stars were untouchable even in the old rough and tumble days, but that’s simply no longer the case.

Milan Michalek‘s agent Allan Walsh is trying to get Ottawa Sun reporter Don Brennan fired after Brennan wrote this article, with Walsh saying “A parasite like Don Brennan in the Ottawa media can’t resist the urge to tear down the Senators and their top players. Brennan’s mission following the team on the road is to tear the players down. Can’t Sun Media come up with somebody better than this? Every Senators fan should rise up and be heard. Let Sun Media and the Ottawa Sun know how you feel.”  Brennan is not going to win a popularity contest with the fans and tried to laugh it off.  My take?  The article in question isn’t the worst thing Brennan has written, but the quality of Sens coverage could only improve if he were removed.

Ottawa 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT); Binghamton 2, Norfolk 3 (OT)

A rough and tumble game that featured a lot of vicious hits and plays (including Alfredsson getting knocked out by an elbow to the head from Hagelin).  There’s no replacement for Alfredsson (assuming he misses more games), but as Spezza has been completely invisible to this point a return to form from him might make up for it.  A couple of observations: why does Anderson handle the puck so much?  He’s not very good at it and turns it over as often as not; Winchester should not play on the top line.  Here’s the box score.  On the ridiculous side of things, Glenn Healy complained the final icing (which lead to the OT winner) wasn’t an icing, which is about as dumb a comment as he could have come up with.

First Period
Less than three minutes in Matt Carkner‘s night ended as he went after Boyle and got himself and Dubinsky (third man in) kicked out of the game and gave the Rangers a five-minute powerplay.  The Sens had the best chance early, but Condra couldn’t get the feed to Winchester on a 2-on-1.  Winchester had another chance on a near breakaway, but was too out of gas to attack the net and sent his shot wide.  The Sens were able to kill the major penalty allowing the Rangers only one shot.  Neil fought Boyle afterward. Gonchar promptly took a tripping penalty to put the Rangers back on the powerplay and Ottawa was doing a good job on the PK when Anderson baubled a simple shot which the Rangers recovered and then Stralman‘s point shot deflected in off Phillips.  Foligno drew a call for Ottawa’s first powerplay, which had great possession, but wasn’t able to capitalise (the best chance was foiled when Spezza decided to pass instead of shoot).  Foligno had a terrific chance in the final minute, walking in alone on LundqvistPhillips took an elbowing penalty just before the period ended which resulted in Anderson‘s best save of the frame on Callahan.  Ottawa dominated the play, but generated only one good scoring chance and were behind by one.
Second Period
Anderson made a nice stop off Callahan in the back half of the Rangers powerplay.  The Sens had their first chance when the kill was over, but Karlsson missed the net from in the slot.  Ottawa got caught running around in its own zone due to a pair of Gonchar turnovers which was ended by a dumb penalty by Kuba.  The Rangers had a lot of pressure early in the powerplay, but the Sens were able to hold them off.  Michalek nearly put the puck into his own net towards the halfway mark.  The Sens then went to turnover city where they could not get out of their zone, Anderson making a brilliant save on Hagelin;  At the end of the play Alfredsson got an elbow to the head from Hagelin and went down like a shot, giving the Sens a five-minute powerplay.  The first shift of the advantage Prust elbowed Karlsson in the head but there was no call (it was hard to tell if it was intentional or not).  Karlsson took a shift off and then tied the game by banking a puck in off Del Zotto.  Ottawa had one other good chance with the advantage, but Michalek couldn’t bang in a rebound.  Richards took a penalty immediately afterward, unhappy with a Karlsson check he punched him in the face and got called for roughing, but the Sens couldn’t get a shot on goal.  The overall play was more even throughout the period.
Third Period
After a couple of scrambly minutes Gaborik hit the post.  A Winchester giveaway at the blueline resulted in Boyle beating Anderson from the slot.  Two shifts later Phillips can’t hit the empty net with Lundqvist down and out.  The Rangers hit another post close to the midway point.  Ten minutes in and Ottawa hadn’t generated an A-grade scoring chance.  The next shift there was a great scramble in front, but it was whistled down as the ref lost sight of the puck.  The Sens had steady pressure afterwards, eventually scoring on a broken play with Konopka fluttering the puck at the net and Foligno banged it in.  Turris was hurt on the play as he got drilled with a vicious crosscheck from Del Zotto (he did not miss a shift).  Anderson made a nice save after the Rangers got some zone time off a Spezza turnover.
OT
It did not last long, as frantic action in front of the net saw Neil bang in a rebound off a point shot from Cowen (this just after Greening missed sliding the puck into an open net).

Here’s a look at the goals:
1. Rangers, Stralman (pp)
A simple shot deflects off Phillips and beats Anderson five-hole
2. Karlsson (Kuba) (pp)
An innocent rush with Karlsson centering the puck from the corner and bouncing it in off Del Zotto
3. Rangers, Boyle
Winchester turns it over and Boyle simply beats Anderson from the slot
4. Foligno (Turris, Konopka)
A broken play results in Foligno banging the puck home after Konopka puts it to the net
5. Neil (Cowen, Smith)
Cowen’s shot is blocked and Neil buries the puck past a downed Lundqvist

Top-performers:
Nick Foligno – it wasn’t a Picasso, but he scored and generated offence
Erik Karlsson – despite being targeted he helped the Sens control the play and scored the first goal

Players Who Struggled:
Jason Spezza – no points in the series thus far and largely invisible (he also lead the team in turnovers)
Chris Phillips – not a great game for the big rig who deflected a puck into his own net and was on the ice for both Ranger goals

-Binghamton lost their final game of the seaseon 3-2 in overtime.  McKenna made 46 saves in the loss, while Hoffman and Puempel scored the goals.  Here’s the box score and Joy Lindsay‘s game summary.

-Elmira lost 5-0 to Florida tonight, with Brian Stewart pulled and taking the loss and Corey Cowick and Josh Godfrey pointless (Bobby Raymond had two assists for the Everblades).

Senators News: April 14th; Binghamton 3, Wilkes-Barre 1

-There’s speculation that Alfredsson could be moved up to the first line for tonight’s game; Paul MacLean has generally resisted putting the big three together this season to keep his lines offensively balanced, so it will be interesting to see if that change occurs and what effect it has.  Don Brennan is beating the drum for Matt Carkner to play, but that’s nothing new.  If Carkner could skate he’d be a more appealing option.

-The local media has been whining about how terrible Ottawa was in the opener (you can find serious coverage with Michael Grange at Sportsnet or in the US media), which is absurd and John Tortorella clearly agrees, “All I know is that we’re going to have to be better.”

-Sens prospect Mark Stone Tweets that he is on his way to Ottawa.

-Binghamton won last night, with Robin Lehner making 26-saves and Mike Hoffman, Pat Cannone, and David Dziurzynski scoring the goals (both Cannone and Dziurzynski had two-point nights).  Mike Bartlett was injured in the game and Ben Blood was given a match penalty for a hit to the head, so neither will play in Binghamton’s final game.  Here’s the box score and Joy Lindsay‘s game summary.

Joy also reports that the Sens have re-signed their affiliation agreement with Binghamton (it’s a 3-year deal).

-Elmira defeated Florida 3-1 in the first game of their playoff series.  Brian Stewart made 45-saves for the win, while Corey Cowick, Josh Godfrey, and Bobby Raymond were held off the score sheet.

-Here’s my profile of Sens prospect Fredrik Claesson.

-I watched the most the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia game last night (as should you all), in which the Penguins folded as the game progressed and Fleury could not make a save when Pittsburgh really needed it.  If the Flyers win the series it’s going to upset the applecart of many Stanley Cup predictions.  For my part I didn’t think the Flyers were healthy enough to beat Pittsburgh and while the series winner is still up in the air, I have to credit Philadelphia for having better depth than I’d imagined.

Prospect Profile: Fredrik Claesson

Fredrik Claesson (D-L, 6’0, DOB 1992, 5-126/11)
2009-10 SupEl Djurgardens 22-0-4-4 +11 18pim (ppg 0.18) 8th d-pts
2010-11 SupEl Djurgardens 18-2-3-5 +10 6pim (ppg 0.27) 6th
2010-11 SEL Djurgardens 35-2-0-2 +4 6pim (ppg 0.05) 7th
2011-12 SEL Djurgardens 47-1-6-7 +7 8pim (ppg 0.14) t-5th
2011-12 WJC Sweden 6-0-0-0 Even 0pim t-6th

A defensive defenseman (ranked #27 by Central Scouting), Claesson was a teammate of Zibanejad‘s (and briefly Marcus Sorensen) and continued his strong, safe play with struggling Djurgarden this season (he was also a member of Sweden’s gold medal winning WJC team).  He might return to the Sweden for another season, although that seems less likely now that Djurgarden has been relegated.  I haven’t been able to find a decent scouting report on Claesson (Hockey Futures writes “Claesson is almost exclusively a stay-at-home defenseman. While not overly physical, he plays a sound positional game and is very good at preventing scoring opportunities and blocking shots and passes. Claesson is not an impressive stickhandler at this point in his career but those skills should improve as he continues to develop), but the organisation has compared him to Anton Volchenkov.  Here’s Claesson playing in the development camp, and an interview with him after winning the World Junior Championships.

Senators News: April 13th

Paul MacLean was happy with 54 minutes of his team’s effort, feeling that the end of the second and beginning of the third was their primary problem last night.  He acknowledged their powerplay needs to be much better, and “We didn’t play our best. We need to play better, obviously, to win. When you lose a game, you can always be better in all areas and all zones of the rink.”  The Sens players had essentially the same message, which is in stark contrast to the sky-is-falling mentality of the press.

-There’s probably no point in correcting Allen Panzeri, but for those scoring at home Erik Karlsson stopped Prust‘s breakaway, not Chris Phillips as reported.

Bruce Garrioch illustrates why reading about the game isn’t the same as watching the game, “The Rangers served noticed to the Senators  that the team that pays the price is going to win the series. New York used its physical force to hit just about everything wearing a white sweater.”  Garrioch leaves the impression that the Rangers were the more physical team and it’s just not true–hits were even at 37 and even without the official stats physicality was not the deciding factor of the game.

-Speaking of Garrioch, he was on Hockey Central this afternoon and according to the boys in the studio the series is over–mark it down.  Doug MacLean thinks Condra is one of Ottawa’s big bodies incidentally–something he’s repeated for awhile–which I get a kick out of.

Joy Lindsay reports that Mika Zibanejad will not play for Binghamton this weekend due to a mix of illness and exhaustion (Garrioch reports it may be a concussion).  Robin Lehner will start tonight and both Andre Petersson and Stephane Da Costa are expected to play.

Ottawa 2, New York Rangers 4

Ottawa played about forty-five minutes of good hockey tonight, which wasn’t enough to beat the Rangers.  As expected, the Sens gave up more quality chances than the Rangers and could not get game-saving goaltending from Anderson.  Ottawa did a good job penalty killing and managed to generate enough offensive chances, but the game was out of hand before they started to capitalise.  Viewers were treated to the CBC broadcast, which featured Bob Cole who couldn’t figure out Gonchar and Karlsson, while Glenn Healy spent the evening ejaculating about the Rangers.  Here’s the box score.

First Period
A nervous start for both teams with not much flow and no scoring chances early, but Kuba took the first penalty of the game with Anisimov hurling himself to the ice to draw the call (Richards tried the same thing on the first shift of the game, but the refs didn’t bite).  The Rangers didn’t get a chance on the man advantage.  Spezza nearly broke in all alone, but wasn’t able to get a shot off.  The Sens got a powerplay of their own via a Prust trip, but were unable to get set-up or generate a chance.  Condra was hurt by a Richards hit in the corner (Bob Cole didn’t notice).  The Rangers opened the scoring when Anderson got out of position on a point shot blocked by KubaBickel took a crosschecking penalty (that sent Glenn Healy rhapsodic whining), which produced the Sens first good scoring chance (a tip by Greening) which was followed by a near-break for Prust (well defended by Karlsson) and Boyle sucker punching Karlsson repeatedly (which turned into coincidental penalties).  The Sens controlled the play through the end of the frame.
Second Period
The Sens had a good start to the period, with Gonchar blasting a great chance over the net.  Anderson made a good save off Del ZottoSpezza had a chance about five minutes in, but couldn’t beat Lundqvist.  The following shift the Sens second line created all kinds of pressure, but Anderson nearly gave up another goal as he was caught well out of his net, but the Rangers couldn’t hit it from the red line.  Anderson made a great stop on Richards close to the midway point, followed by a great chance for O’Brien who was in all alone.  Tortorella called a timeout with the Rangers icing the puck over and over again.  Anderson made a fantastic save on Gaborik on a 2-on-1, and on the next shift stoned Stepan.  New York started to carry the play, but McDonagh tripped Karlsson to put Ottawa on the powerplay.  The Sens weren’t able to generate any chances with the man advantage and the Rangers scored on the following shift as Gonchar couldn’t make up his mind on his defensive coverage and allowed Gaborik to walk in on Anderson.  The Sens took a penalty on the next shift as the Rangers nearly scored again.  Ottawa killed the penalty, but Boyle scored when he collected a puck that bounced off Cowen.
Third Period
Foligno baubled the puck in his own zone leading to an easy one-timer goal by Richards.  The Sens were discombobulated for awhile after the goal, with disjointed play.  After killing a Smith slashing penalty the Sens broke Lundqvist‘s shutout bid with a great tip by Alfredsson.  Ottawa made the score look more respectable with a goal from Condra off a nice Foligno feed, but pulling Anderson for the last two minutes of the period weren’t able to get pucks to the net.

Here’s a look at the goals:
1. Rangers, Callahan
Kuba blocks a weak point shot and Anderson who loses his net and gives up a bad goal
2. Rangers, Gaborik
Gonchar can’t decide if he wants to take away the pass or attack the man so he let’s Gaborik go uncontested on Anderson and fakes him out
3. Rangers, Boyle
The puck bounces off Cowen and Anderson goes down immediately, allowing Boyle to pick the top corner
4. Rangers, Richards
Foligno baubles the puck behind the net and an uncontested Richards beats Anderson with a one-timer
5. Alfredsson (Spezza, Michalek)
Spezza floats a shot in and Alfredsson (uncontested in front) tips it in
6. Condra (Foligno, Turris)
A 2-on-1 down low after the Rangers all went after Turris along the blueline and Condra’s blooped shot beats Lundqvist

Top-performers:
Daniel Alfredsson – scored a goal and was the only consistently dangerous Ottawa forward
Ottawa’s PK – did a great job preventing the Rangers from generating scoring chances with the man advantage

Players Who Struggled:
Craig Anderson – he did make some big saves, but when the Sens needed a game changing save he couldn’t produce one and allowed two goals he should have stopped
Ottawa’s Powerplay – unable to generate chances or momentum

Senators News: April 12th

-I wanted to include quotes from players going into tonight’s games, but you’ve heard all the cliches before.  The analysis offered in the papers has been deep and meaningful, with astonishing insight like goaltending will be important.  For my part I dive into the numbers for the series.

-Sens assistant GM Tim Murray was on The Team 1200 yesterday and said he wasn’t concerned about burning a year of Zibanejad‘s contract if they felt he could help the team win.  He also said they expect Jakob Silfverberg to join the team when the SEL playoffs are over (that could be as early as April 15th or as late as April 21st).  Nichols has the conversation transcribed for those who prefer reading it.

Jared Crozier makes his prediction for the Sens series and see’s Ottawa winning in six.  He’s the first person I’ve seen who provides some of the performances within the regular season series between the teams.

-For those who missed it, octogenarian Bob Cole will be calling the Ottawa series, much to the chagrin of Sens fans everywhere.  My only advice: hockey is a beautiful game even with the sound off.

Joy Lindsay reports that Wacey Hamilton and Dan Henningson‘s seasons are over due to injury.  She also interviewed Ben Blood who talked about his first two games with Binghamton, “The play is definitely faster. Guys are bigger, smarter, faster. You’ve got to be more positionally sound out there. You’ve got to support each other. But it’s also a little bit easier because all the guys are so much better. It just makes the game easier when you’re playing with better guys. I just want to be a big, physical, shutdown d-man out there. I’m just going to try to play my game, and play my game every night and every day at practice.”

Mark Stone‘s Brandon Wheat Kings have been eliminated in the WHL playoffs, but the Sens prospect was injured in their series so I’m not sure if he’ll join the NHL club or not.

-I watched the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia game last night and was struck by how much attention the media gave the missed call that lead to Briere‘s goal (making the game 3-1 Pittsburgh).  I mention it because of how many times the media has dismissed terrible officiating by saying it’s just an excuse and the NHL has the best officials in the world.  You have to wonder why this particular play excited them so much.  That being said, if you aren’t watching this series, you should be.  In the Nashville-Detroit series, Weber should be suspended, but he won’t be.

Ottawa Senators-New York Rangers Playoff Preview: The Numbers

I’ve already posted my prediction for this series (link), where I included some of the basic numbers of both teams, but I think it’s worth going into greater depth with the numbers.  First, a review of those basic numbers (keep in mind, the Rangers had a better record so they should dominate most categories):

New York Rangers (51-24-7)-Ottawa Senators (41-31-10)
2nd (overall)/1st (east)-16th (overall), 8th (east)
Home Record: 27-12-2 (NYR, 7th), 20-17-4 (Ott, 24th)
Road Record: 24-12-5 (NYR, 3rd), 21-14-6 (Ott, 7th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 (NYR), 4-6-0 (Ott)
Winning % Outshot: .556 (NYR, 11th), .533 (Ott, 14th)
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Times Shorthanded: 260 (12th), 310 (28th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)
Injuries: Regin (indefinitely), Carkner (day-to-day); Zuccarello (indefinitely), Sauer (concussion), Eminger (day-to-day)

There’s not much that’s unexpected in the basic numbers–Ottawa scores more, the Rangers give up fewer goals.  The overall faceoff numbers are a wash and special teams essentially cancel each other out.  The Sens take too many penalties, but that’s less relevant in the playoffs when fewer calls are made.  While the Sens give up more shots than the Rangers, they have a better record when outshot so that too is largely irrelevant.  Both teams were excellent on the road.  The Senators have a healthy roster, while the Rangers are a bit short on the blueline.

General Player Comparisons (keep in mind that official tracking of hits, blocked shots, etc have to be taken with a grain of salt)
TOI leader (blueline): Karlsson (25:19); Girardi (26:14)
TOI leader (forward): Spezza (19:55); Callahan (21:02)
Faceoff % leaders: Konopka (58.9), Winchester (53.6), Spezza (53.5); Dubinsky (51.9), Richards (51.8), Boyle (51.8)
Faceoffs taken leaders: Spezza (1700), Smith (990), Turris (723); Richards (1316), Boyle (1215), Stepan (867)
Powerplay goal leaders: Spezza/Michalek (10); Callahan (13)
Powerplay goals by defensemen: 12 (Ott); 3 (NYR)
Shorthanded goals: Alfredsson (3); Hagelin/Prust (2)
Game Winning goals: Karlsson (5); Callahan/Richards (9)
Shot leaders: Karlsson (261), Spezza (232), Michalek (212); Gaborik (276), Callahan (235), Richards (229)
Plus/Minus leader (blueline): Kuba (+26); McDonagh (+25)
Plus/Minus leader (forward): Alfredsson (+16); Hagelin (+21)
Hits (forward): Neil (271), Foligno (196), Greening (189); Callahan (271), Boyle (236), Dubinsky (207)
Hits (defense): Cowen (217), Phillips (134), Karlsson (60); Girardi (236), Del Zotto (156), McDonagh (118)
Blocked shots: Kuba (149), Phillips (137), Gonchar (115); Girardi (185), McDonagh (182), Del Zotto (95)
Giveaways: Karlsson/Spezza (84); Girardi (61)
Takeaways: Karlsson (67); Callahan/Stepan (51)
PIM leaders: Konopka (193), Neil (178), Foligno (124); Prust (156), Dubinsky (110), Bickel (108)
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the best) Defense: Kuba, Karlsson, Gonchar; McDonagh, Girardi, Del Zotto
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: Turris, Greening, Michalek; Callahan, Richards, Dubinsky
Corsi Quality Competition (playing against the worst) Defense: Carkner, Cowen, Phillips; Bickel, Stralman, Staal
Corsi Quality Competition Forwards: O’Brien, Neil/Winchester; Rupp, Mitchell, Prust
Playoff Experience (forwards expected to play): 293 (Ott); 298 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (defense expected to play): 250 (Ott); 59 (NYR)
Playoff Experience (starting goaltenders): 6 (Ott); 35 (NYR)

Paul MacLean has used his players more evenly than Tortorella, with the latter largely dependent on his top three lines and top four defensemen.  The Sens have a distinctive edge in faceoffs player by player, although Spezza takes a disproportionate amount of Ottawa’s draws.  For all the accolades about the Rangers blocking shots it’s clear that their top pairing are the ones largely responsible for it.  In terms of playoff experience the only significant edge is on the blueline, where Ottawa has a clear advantage (I don’t think the experience difference between goaltenders means as much because Anderson has played in the league for a long time).

Defensemen (compared by TOI)
Karlsson (81-19-58-78 +16 25:19)-Girardi (82-5-24-29 +13 26:14)
Kuba (73-6-26-32 +26 23:36)-McDonagh (82-7-25-32 +25 24:44)
Gonchar (74-5-32-37 -4 22:15)-Del Zotto (77-10-31-41 +20 22:26)
Phillips (80-5-14-19 +12 19:06)-Staal (46-2-3-5 -7 19:53)
Cowen (82-5-12-17 -4 18:53)-Stralman (53-2-16-18 +9 17:05)
Gilroy (67-3-17-20 +2 17:30)-Bickel (51-0-9-9 +2 10:26)

The Sens, if they stay healthy, have the edge on the blueline.  The Rangers are overly dependent on their top-four and have no room for error if one of them struggles or gets injured.  Ottawa also has a much more offensively productive blueline.

Forwards (compared by TOI)
Spezza (80-34-50-84 +11 19:55)-Callahan (76-29-25-54 -8 21:02)
Michalek (77-35-25-60 +4 19:33)-Richards (82-25-41-66 -1 20:15)
Alfredsson (75-27-32-59 +16 18:56)-Gaborik (82-41-35-76 +15 19:30)
Turris (55-12-17-29 +10 16:51)-Stepan (82-17-34-51 +14 18:56)
Greening (82-17-20-37 -4 15:35)-Dubinsky (77-10-24-34 +16 16:16)
Foligno (82-15-32-47 +2 14:38)-Anisimov (79-16-20-36 +12 15:24)
Condra (81-8-17-25 +11 14:09)-Boyle (82-11-15-26 +2 15:14)
Smith (81-14-12-26 +4 14:04)-Hagelin (64-14-24-38 +21 15:02)
Neil (72-13-15-28 -10 12:47)-Fedotenko (73-9-11-20 -7 13:35)
O’Brien (28-3-3-6 +6 11:45)-Prust (82-5-12-17 -1 11:56)
Daugavins (65-5-6-11 -2 11:19)-Mitchell (63-5-11-16 +10 10:09)
Winchester (32-2-6-8 +2 10:38)-Rupp (60-4-1-5 -1 6:38)

The Rangers have a slight physical edge with their forward group, but otherwise I don’t see a distinct advantage either way.

Goaltenders
Anderson (63-33-22-6 2.84 .914 TOI 3492:18)-Lundqvist (62-39-18-5 1.97 .930 TOI 3753:30)
Bishop (10-3-3-2 2.48 .909 TOI 531:39)-Biron (21-12-6-2 2.46 .904 TOI 1220:01)

Lundqvist is a better goaltender–there’s no argument to be made that he isn’t–but he hasn’t brought that talent to the playoffs yet and for whatever reason Ottawa has enjoyed success against him (recently and historically).  There’s no real alternative for the Rangers if Lundqvist gets hurt or struggles, whereas the Sens have confidence in both Bishop and Lehner.

Take the numbers for what they’re worth.  Hockey is a game of emotion and momentum and it’s hard to predict.  In Ottawa’s favour is that winning either of the first two games is a bonus–all the pressure is on the heavily favoured Rangers.  It’s already been a successful season for the Senators and whereas anything other than a long playoff run would be a disappointment for New York.

Senators News: April 11th

-Here’s my playoff preview, with a more detailed look at Ottawa’s series to come.  Like most of the experts I haven’t picked many upsets (going by the overall standings I’ve only picked one in the first round; my Cup prediction takes a hit as the Bruins have reported Nathan Horton will miss the entire post-season).

Jason Spezza talks about the upcoming series, “They’re a team that tries to play similar to how we try to play, a physical up-tempo game. We’ll try to get pucks behind them, we want to be on the offence. That makes it an easier game for us. They’re a team we’ve looked at all year and tried to play similar to, because we respect them and think they play the game the right way. We feel we play the game the right way, too so that’s why we think it can be a good series.”  Chris Phillips said, “The biggest thing, is not playing defence. Get the puck quickly and we’re moving it to a teammate, or a forward, if we have it and we’re skating out of the zone. Get to the puck first, be hard on them and make good plays.”

-TSN’s playoff preview show was last night and it was a welcome relief after the nonsense of Sportsnet‘s preview on the weekend.  Like most prognosticators the panel favoured Pittsburgh to win the Cup.

-Sens bloggers are taking their kick at the cat for predictions, with The Silver Seven dragging it out as much as possible with articles separated by position.  Unfortunately, there’s not much statistical information used to back up what’s said and their opinions are all over the map, so I can’t recommend the series.  Neither 6th Sens nor Senshot have posted their previews yet, while Jeremy Milks at Black Aces has only written about John TortorellaSens Chirp offers his opinion, but there’s no data behind it, just his gut feel.  Travis Yost spent a few minutes looking at the numbers and includes something I hadn’t read before–Ottawa has a career winning record against Lundqvist (11-12-2).  Normally there’s not much stock in career numbers against a team, but some of the Senators core has been around as long as the Ranger goaltender.

Sports Illustrated and TSN‘s power rankings are out with Ottawa 14th and 10th (Pittsburgh is 1st in both).  Adrian Dater writes, “A preseason poll of the league’s pundits probably would have found about five  percent of them predicting that this team would make the playoffs. But here are  the Senators, thanks to solid coaching by Paul MacLean, great years from Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza, and some strong goaltending from Craig Anderson. This  team is big and it can skate, but it’s probably not deep enough for a deep  playoff run.”

Joy Lindsay Tweets Binghamton’s lines at practice: Dziurzynski-Cannone-Petersson, Hoffman-Zibanejad-Downing, Schneider-Da Costa-Parrish, Puempel-Grant-Bartlett/Lessard; Borowiecki-Schira, Blood-Conboy, Wiercioch-Gryba.

Jeremy Roenick is another commentator who calls the Penguins whiners (if you watch the Sportsnet intro video for the story, critics of Crosby and Malkin are called whiners by the host–classy!).

2012 Playoff Preview

With the matchups set prognosticators around the hockey world are gauging the auguries and making feverish calculations on their abacuses, here are my thoughts on round one.  A few points before I get into the specific series:
1. Team’s rarely repeat Cup runs; the classic exceptions are Detroit and Pittsburgh (08 and 09), but all other finalists since the lockout have failed early (Carolina and Edmonton to make the playoffs; only Philadelphia moved as far as the second round)
2. The Cup winner has been no lower than 8th overall in the NHL (Carolina and Anaheim were 4th, Detroit 1st, Pittsburgh 8th, Chicago 3rd, and Boston 7th), which means while the President’s Trophy is largely meaningless, a team must be among the best to win it all (following this formula the potential Cup winners are Vancouver, the Rangers, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Philadelphia, Boston, and Detroit)
3. Playoff experience is something that gets thrown around as a vital ingredient over and over again, but I’ve never seen actual data to show that it equals success (for recent Cup winners it works with Boston, but not Chicago)–if it was a vital criteria than Detroit should win the Cup every year
4. The idea that teams need to lose before they win is simply absurd–29 teams lose every year, so other than the Cup winner it’s axiomatic for everyone
5. The officiating will be awful (Ottawa favourites Dan O’Rourke, Kevin Pollock and Tim Peel have made it into the playoffs, while Greg Kimmerly is on standby and Dean Morton didn’t make it); calls will be missed and bad calls will be made (including goals reviewed)

New York Rangers (2nd)-Ottawa (16th)
Season series: Ottawa 3-1-0/Rangers 1-2-1
Goals For: 249 (Ott, 5th), 226 (NYR, 13th)
Goals Against: 187 (NYR, 3rd), 240 (Ott, 24th)
Powerplay: 18.2% (Ott, 11th), 15.7% (NYR, 23rd)
Penalty Kill: 86.2% (NYR, 5th), 81.6% (Ott, 20th)
Faceoffs: 50.1% (Ott, 16th), 50% (NYR, 18th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.14 (NYR, 6th), 1.05 (Ott, 11th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.8 (NYR, 6th), 32.0 (Ott, 29th)

Conventional wisdom says good defence beats good offence and if that holds true than the Rangers should beat Ottawa.  There are, however, examples that run against that wisdom with the Rangers, who have lost in that same situation to Washington twice (in 09 and 11).  The Senators don’t have the firepower of those Capital teams, but that and their season series record does provide some hope.  The Sens have more offensively depth, while the Rangers have an edge in physical forwards.  All the pressure is on New York and a loose and healthy Ottawa team could take the series.  I feel like the Rangers’ problems scoring will prove to be their achilles heel.  Ottawa in seven.

Boston (7th)-Washington (15th)
Season Series: Boston 1-2-1/Washington 3-1-0
Goals For: 269 (Bos, 2nd), 222 (Wsh, 15th)
Goals Against: 202 (Bos, 5th), 230 (Wsh, 18th)
Powerplay: 17.2% (Bos, 15th), 16.7% (Wsh, 18th)
Penalty Kill: 83.5% (Bos, 11th), 81.6% (Wsh, 21st)
Faceoffs: 54.5% (Bos, 1st), 50% (Wsh, 17th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.32 (Bos, 3rd), 1.01 (Wsh, 13th)
Shots Against Per Game: 29.8 (Bos, 13th), 30.2 (Wsh, 16th)

Boston has all the numbers in this series and should win, but the crazy thing about Washington is that they have enough talent to pull off an upset (they won the season series, for instance).  The Caps are down to their third goalie however, and if the Bruins can stay healthy they should beat the Capitals.  Boston in six.

Florida (14th)-New Jersey (9th)
Season Series: Florida 2-1-1/New Jersey 2-2-0
Goals For: 228 (NJ, 11th), 203 (Flo, 25th)
Goals Against: 209 (NJ, 8th), 227 (Flo, 17th)
Powerplay: 18.5% (Flo, 7th), 17.2% (NJ, 14th)
Penalty Kill: 89.6% (NJ, 1st), 79.5% (Flo, 25th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Flo, 11th), 47.1% (NJ, 29th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 0.93 (NJ, 19th), 0.88 (Flo, 25th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.8 (NJ, 2nd), 30.5 (Flo, 18th)

A statistical mismatch is almost everyway the one advantage the Panthers have (their powerplay) won’t be much of a factor given how rarely the Devils are penalized.  Brodeur has been slowing down for years and hasn’t been good in the playoffs post-lockout, but I’m not a fan of Theodore and think he’ll out play him.  While the Panthers did win the season series, I’d be shocked if they beat New Jersey.  Jersey in five.

Pittsburgh (4th)-Philadelphia (6th)
Season Series: Philadelphia 4-2-0/Pittsburgh 2-3-1
Goals For: 282 (Pit, 1st), 264 (Phi, 3rd)
Goals Against: 221 (Pit, 12th), 232 (Phi, 21st)
Powerplay: 19.7% (Pit/Phi, 5th/6th)
Penalty Kill: 87.8% (Pit, 3rd), 81.8% (Phi, 17th)
Faceoffs: 50.4% (Pit, 13th), 48.3% (Phi, 24th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.17 (Pit, 5th), 1.13 (Phi, 7th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (Pit, 4th), 28.4 (Phi, 7th)

Two of the highest scoring teams in the league, I think the Penguins have the physical edge and I expect the series to get goofy in an awful hurry.  Injuries are to be expected.  I don’t like the goaltending on either team (I’m not a fan of Fleury), but the Penguins own all the statistical edges and are healthier going into the series so they should pull it out.  Pittsburgh in seven.

Vancouver (1st)-Los Angeles (13th)
Season Series: Vancouver 2-1-1/Los Angeles 2-2-0
Goals For: 249 (Van, 4th), 194 (LA, 29th)
Goals Against: 179 (LA, 2nd), 198 (Van, 4th)
Powerplay: 19.8% (Van, 4th), 17% (LA, 17th)
Penalty Kill: 87% (LA, 4th), 86% (Van, 6th)
Faceoffs: 52.2% (Van, 3rd), 51.5% (LA, 7th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.19 (Van, 4th), 0.98 (LA, 17th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.4 (LA, 5th), 30.8 (Van, 21st)

This series comes down to defence and Jonathan Quick.  The only chance the Kings have of winning is to shut down the Canucks and have Quick win the series for them, but I think that’s unlikely.  Vancouver is strong defensively and has two goaltenders who can win games for them, minimizing the Kings’ advantage, and teams that can’t score don’t win the Cup in the post-lockout era.  Canucks in five.

St. Louis (3rd)-San Jose (12th)
Season Series: St. Louis 4-0-0/San Jose 0-4-0
Goals For: 228 (SJ, 12th), 210 (Stl, 22nd)
Goals Against: 165 (Stl, 1st), 210 (SJ, 10th)
Powerplay: 21.1% (SJ, 2nd), 16.7% (Stl, 19th)
Penalty Kill: 85.8% (Stl, 7th), 76.9% (SJ, 29th)
Faceoffs: 53.3% (SJ, 2nd), 50.4% (Stl, 14th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.34 (Stl, 2nd), 1.10 (SJ, 9th)
Shots Against Per Game: 26.7 (Stl, 1st), 28.6 (SJ, 8th)

The Blues own most of the statistical edges and dominated the Sharks in the regular season series; given San Jose’s lengthy history of playoff chokes there’s little reason to expect St. Louis to lose.  Blues in five.

Phoenix (11th)-Chicago (10th)
Season Series: Phoenix 3-1-0/Chicago 1-2-1
Goals For: 248 (Chi, 7th), 216 (Phx, 17th)
Goals Against: 204 (Phx, 7th), 238 (Chi, 22nd)
Powerplay: 15.2% (Chi, 26th), 13.6% (Phx, 29th)
Penalty Kill: 85.5% (Phx, 8th), 78.1% (Chi, 27th)
Faceoffs: 50.6% (Chi, 12th), 50.2 (Phx, 15th)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.11 (Phx, 8th), 1.01 (Chi, 14th)
Shots Against Per Game: 28.6 (Chi, 9th), 31.6 (Phx, 28th)

Two teams with underwhelming goaltending, it’s a good offence against a good defence.  I think the dynamic of the series changes if Toews is able to play, but even without their captain the intangibles go to the Hawks.  Chicago in six.

Nashville (5th)-Detroit (8th)
Season Series: 3-3-0
Goals For: 248 (Det, 6th), 237 (Nsh, 8th)
Goals Against: 203 (Det, 6th), 210 (Nsh, 9th)
Powerplay: 21.6% (Nsh, 1st), 16.1% (Det, 22nd)
Penalty Kill: 83.6% (Nsh, 10th), 81.8% (Det, 18th)
Faceoffs: 51.6% (Det, 6th), 49.0% (Nsh, 22nd)
5-on-5 Goals For/Against Ratio: 1.44 (Det, 1st), 1.05 (Nsh, 10th)
Shots Against Per Game: 27.0 (Det, 3rd), 30.8 (Nsh, 20th)

A difficult series to call and it has to be kept in mind that Rinne has played 73 games this season (!).  A physical Nashville team could wear down Detroit, but ultimately I think goaltending is going to be the key and assuming Rinne still has gas left in the tank the edge has to go to the Predators.  Nashville in seven.

The second round would look like this:
BostonOttawa
The Bruins have the Sens number and Ottawa will be gased after beating the Rangers.  Boston in five.
PittsburghNew Jersey
An emotionally drained and physically exhausted Penguin team will be stymied by their boring opponent (who will likely employ the box-out strategy the Habs used to beat the Penguins two years ago).  New Jersey in six.
VancouverChicago
Yet another rematch between the two teams, the edge goes to the Canucks if they are healthy.  Vancouver in six
St. LouisNashville
Eventually a team has to score goals and I think the punchless Blues will suffer due to their lack of offence.  Nashville in six.

The third round:
BostonNew Jersey
The Devils don’t match up well against the Bruins at all and will be run out of the rink.  Boston in five.
VancouverNashville
The Canucks are going to be beaten up (emotionally and physically) and will run out of gas.  Nashville in seven.

Cup final:
BostonNashville
An interesting match-up in many ways, but the Bruins will be healthier and they’ve been here before.  Boston in five.