The Staios Nightmare Unfolds

Having spent time so much time covering Pierre Dorion, I know what incompetence feels like and this off-season feels very familiar. We had hints of this at the trade deadline with the awful Tarasenko trade (along with the inability to move either Joseph or Brannstrom), but that was just an appetizer. Every GM across the league should be picking up the phone to call Ottawa (as St. Louis did, getting Mathieu Joseph not just for nothing, but with a 3rd-round pick thrown in). I’m going to go through the latest roster moves and we can share the pain together. To save those of you who just want to skim for what I liked or disliked, I’ve colour-coded that with green for good, red for bad, and no highlight when I think it’s mixed.

Chychrun for Jensen/3rd-rounder (2026)
It’s difficult to imagine a worse trade. To quote The Athletic: “There’s no way to say right now just what the market on Chychrun was, but it’s fair to call it a highly underwhelming return.“. The Sens gave up on a signed, 26-year old dynamic blueliner who is finally healthy, affordable, and wanted to be in Ottawa, for a declining 33-year old blueliner coming off his worst year via analytics. I’m sure he’s good in the corners and I know he plays the right side, but he’s old, overpaid, and won’t be here long. Org defenders have come out with the refrain: “Chychrun was a sunk cost, so there is no use complaining about that anymore.” This is ridiculous (as one can see from The Athletic‘s reaction–and frankly everyone’s from outside the local market). Acquiring Chychrun is one of the few good trades from the Dorion regime and Staios’ failure to handle an asset (again!) simply illustrates he’s struggles as a general manager. It even fails in comparison to Dorion’s terrible DeBrincat trade, because he at least Dorian got a 1st-round pick. One can imagine Staios in the same scenario impatiently trading straight-up for Kubalik and a 4th-rounder.

What’s clear from the above and what follows is that Andlauer has given Staios a free reign and has no idea how to handle hockey assets. There’s positives in that he won’t interfere, but if he doesn’t have a meaningful understanding of hockey, a terrible manager can linger like Jarmo Kekalainen for years.

FA signing David Perron
He’s 35, so he can’t be bought out; he’s coming off his worst year via analytics ever (link above); and he’s signed with term for 4 million. I was trying to figure out the internal logic for this one and I think the org has done it projecting to the 25-26 season, after Giroux walks, is traded, or retires. Perron becomes a less expensive veteran in the lineup and clearly the org wants an older player in their top-six. Of course, Perron isn’t remotely as good a player as Giroux is. My problem, putting the questionable logic aside, is his cap hit, trajectory, and the inability to do anything with him if he completely falls off.

Re-signing Shane Pinto
There was never a question that he’d be re-signed, just for what and how long. The cap hit is fine (3.75) and while the term is short (two years), given all contracts coming off the books it’s possible for the team to keep him (at that point the state of Josh Norris should be clear–the worst case scenario for the Sens is Norris gets healthy but is a shadow of his former self).

Nothing for Mathieu Joseph and a 3rd-rounder (2025)
It’s amazing how easily Staios throws up his hands and gives up on players. Not only did he give Joseph away (having replaced him with someone only marginally cheaper in Amadio), he had to include a pick as well. I’m sure ‘sunk costs’ will explain this one locally too, but there’s no excuse for this. I’ve been eager for Joseph to go for a long time (based on the absurd contract Dorion gave him), but to get nothing in a market when talented players can be acquired for Nick Jensen is inexcusable.

Nothing letting Erik Brannstrom walk
I know, I know, ‘sunk cost’ mumble mumble couldn’t find a trade partner. Yet another complete fail without getting anything for an asset. What’s funny is that with both this and Chychrun‘s departure, the Sens are now lacking talent and skill on their blueline. Chabot is unlikely to ever play much more than half a season, Hamonic isn’t an NHL player any longer, and JBD has his own issues. The decision seems to be gambling on Kleven and simply hoping the puck magically moves from the blueline to the forwards.

FA signing Michael Amadio
He was with the org before, but this deal seems almost as bad as the Mathieu Joseph contract. Signed for 3-years, he’s a guy who will get the team 25-30 points a year…hopefully. He’s only achieved that on a very talented Vegas team, being much worse otherwise (0.37 with Vegas, 0.22 elsewhere). If there was less term (or cash) I could give it a pass, but the potential down sides are very unappealing.

FA signing Noah Gregor
The team let Parker Kelly walk (something I approve of) and replaced him with Gregor. The org’s rationale is that he’s quicker, while I’d say he’s marginally better offensively (0.26 per game vs 0.20; it’s almost eerie how similar they are as players). It feels like re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

FA signing Hayden Hodgson (2-way)
A pointless goon signing (especially with McEwen on the roster–someone I fully expect to play in the minors where he’s also a productive forward). He’s slightly more talented than Imama (0.34 vs 0.23), so that’s the silver lining, but he’s an unnecessary addition.

FA signing Filip Roos (2-way)
The big Swede hasn’t show much as an AHLer (0.28) and I have no idea where you play him (even with Kleven in the NHL there’s still five d-men on the left side). I find the choice baffling, but at least it’s not a veteran slot.

FA signing Jeremy Davies (2-way)
This makes a bit more sense to me, as the veteran is a puck mover at the AHL-level (0.49). The BSens haven’t brought in a player like him in quite some time (the last time they did it successfully was in 2012-13, with Andre Benoit, but the last time they tried was Michael Kostka in 2015-16), leaning on prospects to do that from the blueline, so I like the idea behind the move.

FA signing Adam Gaudette (2-way)
We’ve seen this movie before, but at least he’s not been signed for the NHL roster. He’s a very productive AHL-scorer and a welcome addition.

Retained AHL vet Garrett Pilon
While his regular season was just average, he was good in the playoffs. I don’t mind the two-year contract, as there’s not much coming through the Sens pipeline now.

The Sens have a few more RFA situations to sort out, but none are of immediate NHL-impact nor do I think any of them will be difficult to sort out. I’m not clear on why they qualified Kevin Mandolese again, but he is insurance at the AHL-level.

There’s not much cap room left, but if Norris is unavailable to start the season (which is my assumption), the team will need two players on two-way contracts to fill out spots on the third and fourth line (there are plenty of options for both). I’m also assuming Kleven is in the mix for the defensemen, so on paper the lineup is set. Is it a good lineup? That’s a different question and I’ll leave that for a separate discussion.

As a post-note, I missed Kyle Betts being re-signed to an AHL-deal with Belleville back in March. It’s a move I’m fine with. Betts won’t blow anyone away with his skill, but he can plug-and-play as a fourth-liner, which is a useful thing for the BSens to have.

The BSens also retained Bell as their head coach while replacing both his assistants with Stefan Legein (from the WHL), and Andrew Campbell (from the OHL). Gone are assistants Chris Dennis and Nathan McIver (I have no idea if the change is a conscious one from the org or if both simply moved on).

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 3, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Ullmark Trade, Re-Signings, and the Draft

While I was not happy with Steve Staios at the trade deadline (cf), he did manage to undo one of the bigger Pierre Dorion flubs by dumping Joonas Korpisalo on the Bruins in return for one year of Linus Ullmark. The Sens were also able to get rid of a worthless one-way contract in Mark Kastelic, but had to give up a first-round pick in 2024, which the Bruins used to select 6’6 center Dean Letourneau. It’s a much better hockey trade for Boston (who already tried and failed to move Ullmark at the deadline), but this wipes the slate clean for Staios by getting him out from under the Korpisalo (and Kastelic). This frees his hands when it comes to goaltending, as both Ullmark and Forsberg have just one year left on their deals, while the Kastelic move creates opportunity for players like Crookshank, Jarventie, Halliday, etc. [After writing the bulk of this I learned that the Sens are not qualifying Erik Brannstrom, which is a suitably botched ending to the Mark Stone trade–yet another reason why Staios failed the trade deadline]

Linus Ullmark, DOB 93, 6’4, 6-163/12 Buf; 1yr remaining
2022-23 .915 2.58
2021-22 .938 1.89

Ullmark has never been a #1 goaltender before, at best being the 1A for Boston in 21-22. He’s been awful in the playoffs (including in the AHL), but the Sens won’t be a playoff team, so that’s not relevant. He’s played on bad teams before in Buffalo and put up better numbers than Korpisalo, Forsberg, Matt Murray, etc, in that situation, so he’s an improvement. To me the ideal circumstance is to move him at the deadline for other assets. The only hesitation here is that he’s never handled a starter’s workload in the NHL and it’s unclear how he’ll respond to that.

Besides the big trade, Staios has also been busy re-signing various players (mostly RFA’s) to two-way deals (you can see how their seasons went here). In order:
Angus Crookshank (50-24-22-46) – a one-year deal; this should be the transition deal where he graduates to the NHL team or is moved elsewhere; I like him quite a bit, with the potential issue for him being speed
Cole Reinhardt (56-8-15-23) – one-year; statistically on a down year, but he’s not in the org to produce; definitely a make or break season as I think he has to define a niche and excel in it (PK/energy role suits him best)
Maxence Guenette (58-7-27-34) – one-year; while he established himself as the top offensive blueliner in Belleville, he also trailed off as the season wore on; he’ll need to show more consistency next season
Nikolas Matinpalo (67-4-10-14) – one-year; the undrafted Finn is good defensively, so I think continuing that trend while being more physical and adding a more offense is what I’d look for
Jamieson Rees (51-0-8-8) – one-year; an absolute disaster for both Carolina and Ottawa, the Sens are banking on him rebounding somewhere close to the form he had in 21-22 (otherwise he’s a complete bust)
Wyatt Bongiovanni (48-16-9-25) – one-year; unlike Rees above, he did respond to the move to Ottawa and has been rewarded; he needs to produce, so that’s what to look for
Matthew Highmore (43-9-22-31) – one-year; the only UFA on this list, I suspect the team likes his versability, where he can function in the NHL while also doing his duty in the minors
Michael Simpson (OHL .905 2.61; AHL-deal) – one-year; undersized (6’1) undrafted OHLer signed to serve in the ECHL

One thing I didn’t discuss was the AHL playoffs for Belleville. To briefly recap: the Sens won their opening round 2-1 than lost 2-3 in the next. Halliday was the highlight among prospects (leading the team in scoring), with a trio of veterans doing most of the rest of the work. Generally the prospects wilted in the playoffs, with Sogaard erratic between the pipes.

For those who have read my coverage for a long time you know I like taking risks on skill and goaltending–the two rarest things in the NHL. The Sens have long preferred to take risks on grinders, tough guys, and defensive stalwarts. This approach echoes most of what Ottawa’s commentators ask for. This approach has caused the prospect pool to dry up we can see that the scouting team under Steve Staios still operates under that principal. Neither Scott Wheeler nor Corey Pronman‘s liked their draft.

In reflecting on these picks, it’s worth noting that despite incessantly picking from the US systems, the Sens have a terrible track record with those picks. Gonig over the trends from 2008 to 2021 (the Dorion era forward; success is equal to 400 NHL games or where we can presume it; for some younger players it’s TBD; I put first-round picks in green since that’s as close to idiot-proof as you can get):
US systems (24): Dzingel, (Daccord), Tkachuk, Pinto, Sanderson
WHL/BCHL (18): Smith, Grant, Stone, Lazar, (Greig)
Sweden (16): Karlsson, Silfverberg, Lehner, Zibanejad
OHL/CCHL/etc (14): Borowiecki, Noesen, Ceci, (Formenton)
QMJHL (11): Hoffman, Pageau, Chabot, Batherson
Finland (4): none
Germany (1): Stutzle
Out of 88 total picks, 27% are from the US systems, much more than the 20% from Western Canada in second (the combined CHL is much more, of course, 49%, but that’s to be expected). Despite that US preponderance, those selections aren’t ahead in terms of success, sitting tied with the West, Sweden, and QMJHL (and just ahead of the OHL). To me that suggests the org needs to reevaluate its US scouting.

1-7 Carter Yakemchuk, RD, 6’3, WHL, 66-30-41-71
Lead the blueline in scoring and was second on the team overall; this is the one pick the aforementioned analysts actually liked, although it’s higher than the consensus listings. The criticisms of him (and why he wasn’t a top-five consideration) is based on his defending and mental mistakes. Defense is easily taught, but mental errors are harder to fix.

2-39 Gabriel Eliasson, LD, 6’7, Swe-J20, 36-1-5-6
Will be going to the NCAA from Sweden; amongst the worst producers on his team; the negative sentiments from scouts about him are overwhelming; the Sens are hoping his unique size and onery temperament will be enough to carry him through–it’s unlikely, but the org likes taking these kinds of risks based on size (Djibril Toure, Ben Roger, Chandler Romero, Filip Nordberg, Theo Wallberg, etc); like the pick above, he went ahead of projections. From Pronman: “He is a player some evaluators love because of how hard he plays, but there is some real doubt he can make even basic plays versus pros.” Wheeler: “I didn’t rank him on my board after watching him get in his own way more than any defenseman I’ve scouted in 11 years of doing this. He is the most undisciplined player I’ve ever watched and has shown no ability to play with any restraint“

4-104 Lucas Ellinas, LW/CL, 6’2, OHL, 67-16-17-33
Plays with fellow Sens’ pick Andonovski; he was 7th in scoring; scouts liked his shot and work ethic; it’s worth noting he’s already had shoulder problems and there are mixed feelings about his skating (Pronman thinks it’s not good, Wheeler says he has good speed).

4-112 Javon Moore, LW, 6’4, USHS, 28-26-27-53
The pick acquired from Detroit in the DeBrincat trade; was third on his high school team in scoring. Pronman: “I didn’t think he dominated high school opponents like his talent dictated he should, whether it was due to so-so hockey sense or too much perimeter play.“

4-117 Blake Montgomery, LW, 6’4, USHL, 58-22-21-43
The pick acquired from Tampa in the Paul trade; third in scoring on the team, but first in points-per-game; picked slightly ahead of projections. Pronman: “he’s a great athlete who has some physicality and OK skill that will make him appealing to NHL teams.“

5-136 Eerik Wallenius, DL, 6’4, Finn-U20, 14-3-5-8
Bounced between leagues (as is normal for younger players in Europe), but in limited action was the most successful offensive blueliner. Pronman: “His mobility isn’t great … and I don’t see the top-level puck play to compensate for that.“

(Ottawa’s 3rd-round pick was lost to Chicago in the DeBrincat trade; the 6th-round was lost to Carolina in the inexplicable Rees trade; the 7th-round pick went to Toronto in the Murray trade.)

There’s a pretty obvious theme in the players above and that’s size. Nearly all the players were taken ahead of projections and are projects (many of which verge between bust and depth). This tendency goes back to Troy Mann and thus far none of the ‘truculent’ players have panned out. The successes Mann had were risks on skilled players (Batherson, Pinto, etc). How many Tyler Boucher‘s can you draft before the lesson sinks in? Apparently there is no limit. (Tangentially I have to comment on lazy writing from The Silver Seven on the later prospects–using the Google machine won’t hurt you Beata!)

The odds of Yakemchuk working out are good, because top-ten picks usually do (Boucher is an exception), but we’ll have to see with the rest of the crew, none of whom are coming soon. On the surface this isn’t a great draft, but I want to see some results before I take a strong stance on it.

This article was written by Peter Levi

July 1, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Belleville’s 2023-24 Regular Season

With the BSens in the midst of the playoffs, let’s take a look at the season that was. The team finished 38-28-6, with 209 GF and 211 GA. This is a 7-win, 10-point improvement over the season before, with the team scoring 24 less goals and allowing 47 less. The year closely mimics 21-22 (both in terms of winning percentage and the low goals for/against), where the BSens qualified for the playoffs and then were swept 2-0 by Rochester.

Belleville’s top scorer (Pilon) was 66th in the AHL, but if you go by points-per-game and cut players who played less than 20, things improve a little as Crookshank was 33rd. Sogaard finished tied for 10th in the AHL for save percentage and GAA. Let’s look at the basic stats before a further breakdown (rookies are in italics; ECHL fill-ins who played significant time are in blue; any significant change in performance is noted in green (positive) or red (negative)).

Stats

Forwards
Angus Crookshank 50-24-22-46 0.92 (+0.26) NHL 13-2-1-3
Roby Jarventie 22-9-11-20 0.91 (+0.16) NHL 7-0-1-1
Garrett Pilon 62-18-29-47 0.76 (+0.16 AHL career average)
Matthew Highmore 43-9-22-31 0.72 NHL 7-0-2-2
Wyatt Bongiovanni (t-Win)14-8-2-10 0.71
Rourke Chartier 19-7-6-13 0.68 NHL 37-2-1-3
Egor Sokolov 71-21-25-46 0.65 (-0.19)
Stephen Halliday (NCAA) 10-0-5-5 0.50
Josh Currie 62-12-17-29 0.47 (-0.19 AHL career average)
Jiri Smejkal 47-9-13-22 0.47 20-1-1-2
Matthew Boucher 17-2-6-8 0.47 (+0.15)
Zack Ostapchuk 69-17-11-28 0.41 NHL 7-0-0-0
Cole Reinhardt 56-8-15-23 0.41 (-0.11)
Jamieson Rees (t-Car) 14-0-4-4 0.29
Oskar Pettersson (SEL) 29-3-4-7 0.24
Tyler Boucher 21-2-3-5 0.24
Bokondji Imama 53-3-7-10 0.19 NHL 6-0-0-0
Brennan Saulnier 36-3-4-7 0.19 (-0.31)
Graham McPhee 33-4-2-6 0.18 (+0.11)
Tarun Fizer 30-2-3-5 0.17
Kyle Betts 56-5-4-9 0.16 (+0.08)
Jarid Lukosevicius 19-2-1-3 0.16 (-0.09)
(Philippe Daoust only played 4 games before injury ended his season—again!)

Defense
Maxence Guenette 58-7-27-34 0.59 NHL 7-0-0-0
Jacob Larsson 61-7-26-33 0.54 (+0.23)
Tyler Kleven 53-5-16-21 0.40 NHL 9-0-1-1
Lassi Thomson 67-6-15-21 0.31 (-0.28)
Nikolas Matinpalo 67-4-10-14 0.21 NHL 4-0-0-0
Donovan Sebrango 35-0-7-7 0.20
Dillon Heatherington 60-3-7-10 0.17 (-0.08)
Ryan MacKinnon 29-0-3-3 0.10

Goalies
Mads Sogaard 18-9-3 2.45 .916 (+0.23) NHL 6-1-3-0 .859 4.05
Leevi Merilainen 10-9-1 2.87 .906 (Liiga)
Kevin Mandolese 10-9-2 3.07 .901 (+0.11)

Powerplay Production
Sokolov 10-10-20
Crookshank 6-9-15
Guenette 3-12-15
Larsson 1-14-15
Pilon 6-7-13
Highmore 2-10-12
Currie 3-6-9
Ostapchuk 7-1-8
Jarventie 2-4-6
Thomson 0-6-6
Smejkal 3-1-4

The injury woes for the org are hitting the point where you wonder if there’s a problem with how they’ve been managed. Jarventie and Daoust suffered significant injuries again, not to mention Tyler Boucher (although his problems pre-existed).

The collective veteran shrapnel Pierre Dorion signed in the off-season had mixed results, but overall it’s a pass–no homeruns, but no utter failures either. Jason York’s favourite player (possibly one of the greatest to ever play in any league), Chartier, had average numbers when with the BSens (and abysmal ones in the NHL).

Crookshank‘s strong year echoes his debut (20-21) so I see it largely as a sign of his full recovery over the injury that cost him the 21-22 season. The strangest year is from Larsson, who with first PP time hit career numbers after nearly 400-games as a pro. It’s an anomaly and not something to get too excited over. As for the European free agent experiments, Smejkal‘s offensive numbers are slightly disappointing and I suspect not good to be retained (he’s a UFA). As for Matinpalo, he wasn’t brought in to score, and I think he did what was expected of him. I don’t know if he’ll be retained (he’s an RFA), but I see no harm in doing so. Coach Bell was not a fan of Thomson, who was on the second PP unit most of the season (he’s been scratched twice in the playoffs as well), which is a significant reason for why his numbers are down. I have to assume the disconnect with his coach is his defensively play (something I haven’t noticed, but I haven’t watched all 72-games).

Of the prospects signed the one to make an impact is Stephen Halliday, who is the only significant offensive depth pick the Sens have made in years and he’s continued to perform well in the playoffs. It’s early to judge, but at least at the AHL-level he’s a steal (and a slap in the face to Troy Mann’s stated philosophy of no longer drafting for skill in later rounds).

As for the goaltending, with better defense in front all the goaltenders’ numbers improved. Mandolese, however, remained incredibly erratic. Merilainen was also erratic, but as a rookie that’s less of an issue. Sogaard had issues early in the season, but slowly settled down (I have yet to see the kind of consistent play needed for the NHL, however).

Overall I’d call the season average. My expectations for Bell were low and it’s not clear he made any significant impact on younger players, all of whom performed about as expected. Older prospects generally did worse (Sokolov, Thomson, Reinhardt), so where Bell shined was with veterans (as much as he did shine). Defensively the team was better, but I think that’s unrelated to Bell and more about not suffering through the parade of goaltenders due to injury from last year. I think for the season to truly be a success they need to win another playoff round, otherwise it is, as I said, average. If the org keeps Bell going forward I can live with it, but I think there are better voices out there to help prospects.

This article was written by Peter Levi

May 8, 2024
Categories: Uncategorized . Tags: , , , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Sens Acquire Two Minor Leaguers and Sign Halliday

Under the radar Sens GM Staios made a couple of minor league deals about a week ago (March 15th), acquiring failed Winnipeg asset Wyatt Bongiovanni for nothing (future considerations) and sending their 6th round pick for failed Carolina asset Jamieson Rees. The former deal I greet with a shrug of the shoulders–it costs nothing and the BSens are short on useful forwards, so why not try? I’m less enamored with the second deal, since dumping picks for questionable assets is a poor use of draft capital. Let’s look at both players.

Wyatt Bongiovanni, DOB 99, CL, 6’0, undrafted
2021-22 NCAA 42-16-18-34 0.81 (2nd)
2022-23 AHL 56-13-5-18 0.32 (11th)
2022-24 AHL 34-8-7-15 0.44 (10th)

A relatively unremarkable USHL player who moved on to Quinnipiac where he was much better; he finished his final NCAA season second in scoring to the undrafted, undersized defenseman Zach Metsa (who is having a decent season with Rochester as a rookie). Was he unproductive on the Moose or was he not given the opportunity? Given that the Jets gave him away I’m leaning towards the former.

Jamieson Rees, DOB 01, CL, 5’10, 2-44/19
2021-22 61-7-17-24 0.39 (8th)
2022-23 65-14-28-42 0.64 (3rd)
2023-24 37-0-4-4 0.11 (sub-12th)

The OHL grad’s career has derailed after a solid third AHL-season last year. He’s never been dominant in the minors and I don’t see the NHL upside, so I’m lost on why the Sens want to take a flier on him (as in, what’s the hope for him with the org?). Barring a late season surge this looks like a fail off the hop. For those with good memories (or a nose for trivia), Rees has an Ottawa connection, as the pick used to draft him was part of the Erik Karlsson deal, subsequently traded away to draft Mads Sogaard (cf).

We had one other transaction that I’ve expected for some time: signing Stephen Halliday to his ELC (cf for projection thoughts).

Stephen Halliday, DOB 02, CL, 6’3, 4-104/22
2021-22 62-35-60-95 (1st)
2022-23 40-9-32-41 (1st)
2023-24 38-10-26-36 (1st)

For once the Sens drafted for talent in the later rounds and he’s proceeded to lead his team in production every season. The BSens are desperate for scoring (something neither of the two players above can solve) and the org in general needs a talent-injection. Here’s hoping he can provide that (certainly his size gives him the option of being more than just a scorer as well). If his description sounds a little bit like failed picks Todd Burgess (4-103/16) and Jakov Novak (7-188/18) it’s worth noting that Halliday was much more productive than both as a college player. He was, incidentally, playing with Sens prospect Theo Wallberg who has turned poor USHL production into solid NCAA production as a rookie, which is encouraging.

This article was written by Peter Levi

March 23, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Sens Fail at the Deadline

While there are plenty of excuses, Sens GM Steve Staios ends the deadline in failure, having moved just one piece that needed to go (cf my prior concern). Kubalik will walk away for nothing, Brannstrom is still here, and so on. Yes, the market was soft, but the best GM’s figure it out and Staios did not.

That’s not to write him off or say he can’t handle the job, we’re just looking at this specific situation. On the plus side, he didn’t make any bad trades or silly additions (Boris Katchouk off waivers is fine, if perplexing). Staios hasn’t made the team any worse, but he hasn’t improved it either. We’ll have a better sense of his true capabilities at the draft and then in free agency. With that said, let’s look at the one deal he did pull off.

Tarasenko, as a Sen, performed as expected:
57-17-24-41 0.72 (-0.04 with St. Louis last year, where he was averaging +1:29 TOI)
The primary criticism was signing him in the first place–it created cap hell for Ottawa and didn’t make the team better (nor did he produce at Debrinkat levels–0.80 with the Sens last year, 0.86 with Detroit this year).

Outside of local Ottawa reporters, no one liked the Tarasenko trade, despite the limitations (supposedly Florida was the only place he’d go and his family has been living there the entire season). Both writers at The Athletic gave Staios a poor grade (a C from Dom Luszczyszyn and a C- from Sean Gentille), and I agree with them. The picks provided by the Panthers will be late in those rounds and two 3rds or a 3rd/4th aren’t likely to produce NHL players (the last time I ran the numbers about 10% of 3rd-rounders made it (the last Ottawa 3rd-rounder to pan out was Zack Smith in 2008); the picks are useful as elements for other deals)–the value is very similar to what Toronto gave up for marginal defenseman Joel Edmundson, while Seattle GM Ron Francis was able to squeeze a 2nd-rounder from the Rangers for Alexander Wennberg. Retaining half his salary this season is fine given that Norris is (again!) injured.

The brief run the Sens went on with Jacques Martin has ended and they will likely finish as a bottom-five team in. The primary problem remains goaltending. It will be interesting to see if Staios believes they have the solution in the minors with Sogaard or if they look for someone else (obviously Korpisalo isn’t the solution, but that’s only a surprise to the departed Pierre Dorion). I’d try and get a veteran goalie with a decent track record (so not the scattered records of either Forsberg or Korpisalo), and either pair them with Sogaard or stick with Forsberg until you find a better solution. That’s on-paper what Dorion did in free agency, but Korpisalo clearly does not fit that bill.

Beyond goaltending there’s the depth problem (cf), something Dorion has tried to draft for years. While Jason York (& others) want to add ‘toughness’, the problem Ottawa has is the huge talent gap beyond their top players. The bottom half of the lineup can’t produce, which makes smothering the offense easy for elite teams. Players like Kastelic, MacEwen, and Chartier don’t move the needle enough and the Sens aren’t drafting enough talent (T. Boucher etc). It will be interesting to see how Staios envisions the bottom-six and what he does to fulfill that vision.

I want to go all the way back to August to look at moves. I have St. Louis as a buyer, not just because they are technically still in the wild card race, but more for how they’ve behaved (Calgary, who are tied with them, have operated more like sellers). For conditional picks I’ve leaned on what seems most likely; ‘prospects’ includes players on two-way deals; FC=future considerations.

Sellers
Anaheim 23-36-3 14th
In: Lyubushkin (Buf); prospects: Gauthier (Phi), Mysak (Mtl), Meyers (Col); picks: 1st (24/Edm), 3rd (25/Tor)
Out: Drysdale (Phi), Lyubushkin (Car-Tor); prospects: Perreault (Mtl); picks: 2nd (25/Ana), 4th (Min/25), 5th (24/Ana)
Arizona 25-33-5 13th
In: picks: 4th (27/Edm), 5th (27/TB), 6th (24/Dal)
Out: Stecher (Edm), Zucker (Nsh), Dumba (TB); picks: 7th (24/Bos), 7th (25/Ari)
Buffalo 29-30-5 13th
In: Robinson (Clb), Byram (Col); prospects: Sjalin (Flo); picks: 4th (24/Phi), 4th (Min/25), 7th (24/Flo), 7th (25/Wsh); FC (Mtl)
Out: Lyubushkin (Ana), Mittelstadt (Col), Okposo (Flo), Johnson (Phi); prospects: Cederqvist (Mtl); picks: 7th (25/Nsh)
Calgary 31-26-5 9th
In: Kuzmenko (Van), Miromanov (Vgk), Okhotiuk (SJ); prospects: Jurmo (Van), Brzustewicz (Van), Grushnikov (Dal), Pettersen (Dal); picks: 1st (24/Van), 1st (26/Vgk), 2nd (24/Dal), 2nd (25/Vgk), 3rd (26/Van), 4th (24/NJ), 5th (24/Chi or better)
Out: Zadorov (Van), Lindholm (Van), Tanev (NJ-Dal); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better)
Chicago 16-42-5 16th
In: Beauvillier (Van), Pitlick (Pit); picks: 5th (24/Nsh)
Out: Beauvillier (Nsh); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better), 7th (26/Chi)
Columbus 22-31-10 16th
In: Nylander (Pit); prospects: Subban (Stl), Zboril (Bos); picks: 3rd (27/Bos), 4th (26/NYR), 6th (26/Pit), 7th (25/Nsh)
Out: Robinson (Buf), Peeke (Bos), Roslovic (NYR)
Minnesota 30-27-6 12th
In: Bogosian (TB); prospects: Raska (SJ), Butcher (Pit), Elson (NYR), Toporowski (Bos), Ovchinnikov (Tor); picks: 3rd (26/Col), 6th (26/Bos)
Out: Addison (SJ), Duhaime (Col), Maroon (Bos), Dewar (Tor); prospects: Cajkovic (Min), Petan (NYR)
Montreal 24-29-10 14th
In: Lindstrom (Det), Pearson (Van); prospects: Legare (Pit), Novak (Ott), Perreault (Ana), Cederqvist (Buf); picks: 1st (24/Win), 2nd (Pit/25), 2nd/3rd (25/NJ), 3rd (Van/25), 4th (Det or Bos/25)
Out: Pitlick (Pit), Hoffman (SJ), Allen (NJ); prospects: Mysak (Ana); FC (Buf)
New Jersey 31-28-4 11th
In: Allen (Mtl), Vanecek (SJ); prospects: Durandeau (NYI); picks: 2nd (25/Win), 3rd (24/Win), 4th (26/Dal), 4th (26/Win)
Out: Toffoli (Win), Kahkonen (SJ), Miller (Win); prospects: Thompson (NJ), Brady (Dal); picks 3rd/2nd (25/NJ)
Ottawa 25-32-4 15th
In: picks: 3rd (25/Flo), 4th (24/Flo); FC (Mtl)
Out: Tarasenko (Flo); prospects: Novak (Mtl)
Pittsburgh 28-25-8 12th
In: Karlsson (SJ), Pitlick (Mtl), Bemstrom (Clb), Bunting (Car); prospects: Hamaliuk (SJ), Rathbone (Van), Plasek (Van), Cajkovic (Min), Ponoarev (Car), Lucius (Car), Koivunen (Car), Waeber (Flo); picks: 2nd (24/Phi), 3rd (SJ/26), 5th (24/Car), 7th (25/Flo)
Out: DeSmith (Mtl), Pitlick (Chi), Nylander (Clb), Guentzel (Car), Ruhwedel (NYR); prospects: Legare (Mtl), Friedman (Van), Glover (Van), Butcher (Min); picks: 2nd (Pit/25), 4th (27/NYR), 6th (26/Pit)
Seattle 28-23-11 10th
In: Tatar (Col); picks: 2nd (24/NYR), 4th (25/Dal)
Out: Wennberg (NYR); picks: 5th (24/Sea)
San Jose 15-40-7 15th
In: Granlund (Pit), Rutta (Pit), Hoffman (Mtl), Addison (Min), Kahkonen (NJ), Kostin (Det); prospects: Studnicka (Van), Thompson (TB), Cooley (Buf), Edstrom (Vgk); picks: 1st (24/Pit), 1st (25/Vgk), 3rd (24/TB), 5th (24/Chi or better), 7th (25/NJ)
Out: Karlsson (Pit), Duclair (TB), Simek (Det), Okhotiuk (Cal), Vanecek (NJ); prospects: Hamaliuk (Pit), Raska (Min); picks: 3rd (SJ/26), 7th (24/NJ), 7th (25/SJ)
Washington 29-23-9 10th
In: picks: 2nd (24/Vgk), 3rd (24/NYI), 3rd (25/Car), 4th (26/Vgk), 5th (25/Chi)
Out: Mantha (Vgk), Edmundson (Tor), Kuznetsov (Car)

Buyers
Boston 37-13-15 2nd
In: Maroon (Min), Peeke (Clb)
Out: prospects: Toporowski (Min), Zboril (Clb); picks: 3rd (27/Bos), 6th (26/Bos)
Carolina 37-19-6 4th
In: Kase (Phi), Guentzel (Pit), Kuznetsov (Wsh), prospects: Burke (Col); picks: 6th (26/Tor)
Out: Bunting (Pit); prospects: Rizzo (Phi), Jones (Car), Slepets (Tor), Webber (Tor), Ponomarev (Pit), Lucius (Pit), Koivunen (Pit); picks: 2nd (24/Phi), 3rd (25/Car), 5th (24/Car), 5th (25/Car), 6th (24/Tor)
Colorado 39-20-5 4th
In: Tatar (Sea), Walker (Phi), Mittelstadt (Buf), Duhaime (Min), Trenin (Nsh); prospects: Jones (Car), Bardakov (NJ), Sward (Nsh); picks: 5th (24/Ana), 5th (25/Phi), 7th (24/Nsh)
Out: MacDermid (NJ), Byram (Buf); prospects: Burke (Car), Meyers (Ana); picks: 3rd (25/Col), 5th (24/Sea)
Dallas 38-17-9 2nd
In: Tanev (Cal-NJ); prospects: Brady (NJ), Damiani (Cal)
Out: prospects: Grushnikov (Cal); picks: 2nd (24/Dal), 4th (Dal/26)
Detroit 33-23-6 7th
In: Petry (Mtl-Pit), Simek (SJ)
Out: Lindstrom (Mtl), Kostin (Det); picks: 4th (Det or Bos/25), 7th (24/NJ)
Edmonton 38-21-2 5th
In: Henrique (Ana-TB), Carrick (Ana), Stecher (Ari); prospects: Taylor (TB); picks: 7th (24/Ana), 7th (24/Bos)
Out: picks: 1st (24/Edm), 4th (25/Edm), 5th (25/Edm), 7th (25/Flo), 7th (27/Edm)
Florida 43-17-4 1st
In: Tarasenko (Ott), Okposo (Buf); prospects: Hellberg (Pit)
Out: prospects: Sjalin (Buf), Waeber (Flo); picks: 3rd (25/Flo), 4th (24/Flo), 7th (24/Flo)
Los Angeles 32-19-11 6th
No moves
Nashville 36-25-3 7th
In: Beauvillier (Chi), Zucker (Ari); prospects: Hanzel (Col), Allison (Phi); picks: 3rd (25/Col)
Out: Trenin (Col), Gurianov (Phi); prospects: Sward (Col); picks: 5th (24/Nsh), 6th (24/Dal)
NYI 28-20-14 9th
In: Bortuzzo; prospects: Durandeau (NJ)
Out: prospects: Thompson (NJ); picks: 7th (24/NYI)
NYR 40-18-4 3rd
In: Wennberg (Sea), Ruhwedel (Pit), Roslovic (Clb); prospects: Petan (Min)
Out: prospects: Elson (Min); picks: 2nd (24/NYR), 4th (25/Dal), 4th (26/NYR), 4th (27/NYR)
Philadelphia 33-23-8 6th
In: Drysdale (Ana), Johansen (Col), Johnson (Buf), Gurianov (Nsh); prospects: Rizzo (Car); picks: 1st (25/Col), 2nd (25/Ana), 5th (24/Vgk), 5th (Car/25)
Out: Kase (Car), Walker (Col); prospects: Gauthier (Ana), Allison (Nsh); picks: 4th (24/Phi), 5th (26/Phi)
St. Louis 32-28-3 11th
In: FC (Clb)
Out: prospects: Subban (Clb)
Tampa Bay 33-25-6 8th
In: Duclair (SJ), Dumba (Ari); picks: 7th (25/Ari), 7th (25/Min), 7th (25/SJ)
Out: Bogosian (Min); prospects: Thompson (SJ); picks: 3rd (24/TB), 5th (27/TB)
Toronto 36-19-8 5th
In: Lyubushkin (Ana-Car), Edmundson (Wsh), Dewar (Min); prospects: Slepets (Car), Webber (Tor); picks: 5th (24/Van)
Out: Lafferty (Van); prospects: Ovchinnikov (Min); picks: 3rd (24/NYI), 3rd (25/Tor), 5th (25/Chi), 6th (24/Tor), 6th (26/Car)
Vancouver 41-17-7 1st
In: DeSmith (Pit-Mtl), Lafferty (Tor), Lindholm (Cal); prospects: Friedman (Pit), Glover (Pit), Cicek (SJ); picks: 5th (24/Chi or better), 6th (24/SJ)
Out: Pearson (Mtl), Beauvillier (Chi), Kuzmenko (Van); prospects: Rathbone (Pit), Plasek (Pit), Jurmo (Van), Brzustewicz (Van); picks: 1st (24/Van), 3rd (25/Van), 4th (24/NJ), 5th (24/Van)
Vegas 33-23-7 8th
In: Mantha (Wsh), Hanifin (Cal-Phi), Hertl (SJ); prospects: Vorobyov (Phi); picks: 3rd (25/SJ), 3rd (27/SJ)
Out: picks: 1st (25/Vgk), 1st (26/Vgk), 2nd (24/Vgk), 2nd (25/Vgk), 4th (26/Vgk), 5th (24/Vgk)
Winnipeg 39-17-5 3rd
In: Monahan (Mtl), Toffoli (NJ), Miller (NJ)
Out: 1st (24/Win), 2nd (25/Win), 3rd (24/Win), 4th (26/Win)

Going into the deadline, The Athletic‘s Dom Luszczyszyn wrote about five ‘buyer beware’ players and three of them were acquired: Dumba to Tampa, E. Johnson to Philadelphia, and Peeke to Boston. All three are big, physical defensemen, which is what’s in vogue and in the first two cases are purely rentals.

Other interesting notes: LA made no deals over this period (the only such team); Calgary acquired the most picks (7 and although one of those was traded away, 6 remains the most); Vegas surrendered the most (6). Teams that gave away 1st-round picks: Vegasx2 (Hertl, Hanifin), Edmonton (Henrique/Carrick), Winnipeg (Monahan), Pittsburgh (Karlsson), Vancouver (Lindholm), and Colorado (Walker; other than the Penguins these are all playoff teams). San Jose added the most NHL players (6), while they and Pittsburgh traded away the most (5 each). Pittsburgh also acquired the most prospects (8), while Carolina traded away the most (7). While the deadline was a dud for Ottawa, it was a busy time overall.

This article was written by Peter Levi

March 9, 2024
Categories: Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Staios/Andlauer: Too Patient?

One of the mantras we hear from the Sens’ new ownership and GM (directly and through the media) is patience. They want to assess things. Abstractly this is a good thing–you don’t want to rush decisions. However, it’s beginning to feel like this might be beyond patience and simply reflect indecisiveness. Let’s look at some examples.

Pierre Dorion
Everyone knew he needed to go–from his disastrous trades and signings, to his mixed draft record, to his absurd comments in the media about expectations (Cup challengers in 2018 to the rebuild being over every year from 2019 onwards). Instead of firing him, Andlauer did nothing until the NHL nuked him from orbit.

D. J. Smith
I have no idea if Smith could find success in another situation, but nothing about his prior performance suggested he could take the Sens roster and lead it anywhere. Rather than making a change, he was allowed to coach the team to a limp 11-15-0 record with no signs of improvement before getting replaced by the long retired Jacques Martin.

Goaltending
It didn’t take a crystal ball to guess that the Korpisalo-Forsberg tandem was going to struggle–I called it out when it happened. I’m not sure I expected them to be this bad, but Korpisalo‘s play with a better defensive team in front of him is close to his career worst season in Columbus (2021-22). Forsberg, on the other hand, is having his career worst performance. Ottawa has talent in the minors, but Sogaard is not ready for prime time (he’s only 23), despite a career year in Belleville (the BSens have overplayed him). What should have happened ASAP was moving one of the vets (Forsberg because his contract is easier to move) and gamble on someone else while waiting until the off-season to buyout Korpisalo. Instead, the two have been left to rot and lose what little value they have.

The Roster
I have more sympathy here because Dorion created cap problems going into the season. That said, when the writing was on the wall in December a lot of moves could have been made (Kubalik‘s value has only gone down as the season has gone on, for example). There’s also been a logjam of veterans in the AHL all year long that has been ignored–it’s not fair to the vets or the players looking for ice time.

I have to think the incessant Chychrun rumours are coming from the team (not just because Ian Mendes won’t stop talking about it, but because we’re seeing the speculation outside the market as well). No one seems to want to make the comparison between he and Chabot for the future (I took a brief look in September, with Chabot picking up yet one more injury since then while Chychrun has been healthy for the first time in years). The only reason to trade Chychrun over Chabot is salary, but I’d much rather move an injury-prone, 8.0 cap hit. Maybe Staios is playing 4D-chess, but there’s no evidence for that thus far.

It doesn’t help that the local media is channeling their inner Don Cherry and demanding more toughness on the team (MacEwen‘s demotion and Kastelic‘s horrendous season having no impact on them). It boggles the mind that in 2024 there are still people who think ‘good in the corners’ (without tangible outcomes being attached to the term) are being seriously bandied about.

This article was written by Peter Levi

March 2, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . Tags: , , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Sens Deadline Moves

It’s deadline time and (yet again) the Sens are sellers. I talked about this a bit before, but it’s worth going through what’s likely to happen and what I think should happen (contracts beyond this season noted). I’m not expecting the Sens to add a significant player (not that they can’t, just that nothing suggests that they are). In terms of needs, goaltending is the priority, followed by depth (both on the blueline and at forward), but the latter isn’t something they should worry about in a dead season. [Why Ian Mendes continues to put Drake Batherson on his lists is beyond me–his contract is excellent for what he does–I can’t help but wonder if there other reasons behind it (the early stain of the 2018 WJC accusations come to mind).]

Players Who Will Be Moved
Tarasenko (UFA) – He must go or they lose him for nothing; in the link above I go through his expected destinations; the team won’t get the value for him that St. Louis got last year, but he should yield a couple of picks or a pick and a prospect (highest pick being a 2nd)
Kubalik (UFA) – As above (he must go or they lose him for nothing); I think they’ll get very little for him and may have to take a salary back or retain salary (I’d guess they get a pick for him–maybe they can squeeze out a 4th)
Brannstrom (RFA/arbitration) – There is no room for him in the org, particularly since he’s on the left side (even if one of the Big Three get moved–as I think will happen–there’s Kleven behind him who is better suited to depth minutes); the price is probably a prospect and/or a pick for him (might get a 2nd for him if there are still believers in the league)

Players Who Should Move
Chabot (8.0/27-28) – I love the player, but at his cost I’d rather keep Chychrun as #2 behind Sanderson; the Sens will have to take a salary back (whether just to finish out the season or to keep is hard to say), but they should also get a prospect and a couple of picks (I’d want a 1st); this is a decision that can wait until the off-season, however
Hamonic (1.1/24-25) – He’s completely fallen apart and needs to go, but I don’t think anyone will take him, so a buyout in the off-season is likely
Korpisalo (4.0/27-28) – Has to be bought out as there’s no market for his absurd contract (I’ve seen it argued there’s too much term/money left for a buyout, but this isn’t Toronto where you can magically bury someone on LTIR like Matt Murray) [Mendes makes that argument, link above]
T. Boucher (ELC 0.863/25-26) – As a declining asset I’d move him if anyone wants him (he’s injured again)–maybe you can squeeze someone for a 2nd, but much more likely a 3rd is all you can hope for [Mendes, link above, wants to keep him because ‘he has upside’–every young player does, but they usually have shown something by this point.]

Players Who Could Move
Kelly (RFA arbitration) – Could go, but he’s cheap and an RFA so the only pressure to do so is if they want to clear roster space for prospects/fresh blood (someone like Crookshank, for instance); nothing of substance would come back (a late pick perhaps)
Mandolese (RFA arbitration) – If you prioritize Meriliainen over him (as presumably they do), he’s a third-wheel going into next season (there’s a caveat to this: if they want Sogaard to play in the NHL next year you can keep him); if they move him they get a late pick (6th) or prospect
Joseph (2.95/25-26) – I think he’s overpaid, but with the cap going up the Sens might have decided he’s worth keeping (don’t pay attention his current career numbers as they are due to usage and almost certainly not repeatable); the Sens could get a prospect and/or picks for him (might squeeze out a late 2nd for him) [Mendes considers him untouchable and doesn’t go into the potential cap problems he creates]
Norris (7.95/29-30) – I’ve begun to wonder if the org wants to move on from someone with such a short track record (just one dominant season) given his contract and with (much cheaper) centers Pinto and Grieg behind him; a salary would have to come back with a prospect and/or picks (would any other team think he’s an 8 million dollar player? Jarmo Kekalainen isn’t in the league anymore so I’m not sure)–there is, however, no specific reason to move him at the deadline (it’s much easier to move a salary like this in the off-season)

[Mendes includes Smejkal as someone who will likely be moved, which makes it clear he hasn’t watched many (if any) BSens games or had a clear understanding of what kind of player he’d be across the pond–could he be moved? Sure, it’s much more likely a disappointing AHL-veteran (Currie, for instance) gets shifted to end the lineup chaos in Belleville. His AHL list that follows seems equally random, although we’ll credit that Mendes has, perhaps, talked to the org ahead of time (doesn’t seem like it, but maybe).]

That’s how I see it. Tarasenko, Kubalik, and Brannstrom go, with 1-2 players coming back (just to finish out the season) along with 1-2 prospects and some picks (possibly two 2nds). Beyond that it’s much more up in the air and many of the players who could be moved have difficult contracts to deal with, so that may be all the Sens do (I don’t envision Staios as someone who wants to shake up the lineup too much yet).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 25, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Goaltending, Tarasenko, Prospects, and Formenton

As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).

With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams:
Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening
Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible
Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination
Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina
Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move
Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be

My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).

The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold):
1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment
2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues)
3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet
4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling
5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20)
6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each)
7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player
8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL
9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2)
10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge
11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point
12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers)
13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that
14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental
15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)

I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.

We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.

As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).

This article was written by Peter Levi

February 19, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Draft, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Belleville at 34-Game Mark

This snapshot has the BSens at the 34-game mark (once again the schedule made a 10-game segment awkward to do & the post was delayed due to illness–they’ve since lost to Utica and Laval). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:

The BSens winning percentage started to crawl forward (7th in their conference). In this set of games they went 6-3-0 (4-2-0 in the division). Special teams: PP 16.4% (+1.8), PK 78.3% (-0.4)–the horrible NHL PK is being replicated at the AHL-level; GF 25, GA 22, which in terms of per-game is 2.77 (-0.48) and 2.44 (-1.06); the BSens are the second lowest scoring team in their conference, but not by much.

Game by Game
Cleveland 1-2 (Saulnier/Daoust still injured; Sebrango, Smejkal returned; Larsson NHL; Merilainen back to ECHL)
Wilkes-Barre 1-5 (Crookshank/Smejkal to NHL)
Toronto 4-3 (Heatherington to Spengler)
Laval 4-1 (M. Boucher back to ECHL; Heatherington Spengler)
Toronto 3-2 (no change)
Manitoba 2-1 (Heatherington/Saulnier back)
Manitoba 4-0 (Smejkal/Crookshank back; Fizer to ECHL; Lukosevicius released)
Toronto 0-8 (Sogaard NHL; Merilainen recalled from the ECHL; Jarventie, McPhee injury)
Toronto 6-2 (Imama suspended; McPhee returns)

Individual Performances
I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.

Forwards
Sokolov 12-5-6-11 (12-4-2-6/34-11-12-23)
Jarventie 10-5-5-10 (6-3-4-7/22-9-11-20)
@Currie 11-4-2-6 (11-1-2-3/29-6-6-12)
@Highmore 12-2-4-6 (3-0-1-1/24-4-10-14)
*Ostapchuk 12-4-1-5 (12-3-0-3/34-9-3-12)
@Pilon 11-1-4-5 (12-5-6-11/31-9-12-21)
#McPhee 8-2-2-4 (5-1-0-1/20-4-2-6)
*T. Boucher 10-1-3-4 (injured)
Reinhardt 12-2-1-3 (6-0-3-3/28-4-7-11)
#Saulnier 4-1-1-2 (injured/13-2-2-4)
*Smejkal 5-2-0-2 (10-2-4-6/22-5-6-11) NHL: 7-0-1-1 TOI 10:13
Crookshank 5-1-1-2 (12-7-6-13/27-10-11-21) NHL: 7-1-1-2 TOI 8:50
%Betts 7-1-1-2 (11-0-3-3/19-1-4-5)
@Imama 11-0-1-1 (10-1-4-5/28-1-6-7)
*#Fizer 1-0-0-0 (3-0-1-1/12-0-0-1)
%M. Boucher 5-0-0-0 (12-2-6-8/17-2-6-8) no longer on roster
%Lukosevicius 7-0-0-0 (11-2-1-3/19-2-1-3) no longer on roster
(Daoust 4-0-2-2) injured

The upswing for McPhee doesn’t mean very much, I’m simply noting it because it’s not something I thought he could do. As for Reinhardt, this isn’t concerning unless it continues, as historically he’s always had offensive droughts. Highmore is more troubling and I’m not clear what the issue is. It’s nice to see Sokolov rounding into form after a career worst start.

Defense
@Larsson 9-2-5-7 (9-0-2-2/27-4-7-11)
Guenette 12-1-4-5 (12-2-7-9/34-4-18-22)
*Kleven 12-0-5-5 (6-1-1-2/22-1-8-9)
Thomson 12-0-2-2 (12-2-3-5/34-3-7-10)
*Matinpalo 12-0-2-2 (12-1-2-3/29-1-5-6)
Sebrango 9-0-1-1 (injured)
@Heatherington 7-0-0-0 (12-1-2-3/28-2-2-4)
#MacKinnon 2-0-0-0 (9-0-2-2/17-0-3-3)

What Larsson is doing is unsustainable–he’s had a long pro career and putting up points has never been part of it. Thomson is suffering because he’s been pulled from the PP. Otherwise we’re simply seeing Guenette return to more expected production and that Sebrango hasn’t found a new gear to change his fate.

Goaltenders
Sogaard 3-1-0 .920 2.48
*Merilainen 1-0-0 .904 3.15 [ECHL 9-4-0 .926 2.97]
Mandolese 4-2-0 .893 3.47
#Sinclair [ECHL 8-8-0 .900 4.18]

The song remains the same–Mandolese goes through hot and cold streaks while Merilainen slowly continues to grow. How much having Justin Peters promoted to the NHL impacts things remains uncertain.

This post is late–unfortunately I was ill last week so I didn’t get this out on time. In general, given the talent limitations of the club I think the performance is about as expected.

This article was written by Peter Levi

January 20, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators . Tags: , , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Another Lost Season, but Hope for the Future

The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).

Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.

I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap:
Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well.
Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.

What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):

Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons)
Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost)
Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him
Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him
Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above]
Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!)
MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville
Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside

You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.

There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.

What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.

As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).

What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed:
Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate
Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers
Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers
Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet)
The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).

How about the unsigned?
Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year
Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior
Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league
O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad
Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well
Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved
Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league)
Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer
Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner
Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season
Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production

What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.

As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next):
2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th
2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th
This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.

Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.

This article was written by Peter Levi

January 13, 2024
Categories: Belleville Senators, Ottawa Senators, Ottawa trades . Tags: , , , . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

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