Ottawa Senators System Update (Binghamton, Wichita, and Prospects)

We’re far enough into the season to dig into the performances being accrued by Senators prospects and their affiliate teams.


The Binghamton Senators are an utter disaster.  There’s no other way to frame it–no excuses to offer–they’re terrible and their season is over in terms of making the playoffs.  The only hope for fans is to see development and improvement.  Normally I compare the BSens to their conference, but let’s look at their overall league performance: 30th (5-14-1-1), trailing the 29th and 28th place teams by 5 points (already!); they are last in scoring (5 goals behind the 29th scoring team), and 24th in goals allowed.  One plus I’ll give Kurt Kleinendorst is that he’s put a stop to Luke Richardson’s regime’s endless parade to the penalty box–the BSens are the 4th-least penalized team in the league. Unsurprisingly the team has a terrible powerplay (29th), although their PK is hovering around average (16th)–the percentage about the same as the team finished last season.  I don’t know what, as a coaching staff, you do with this roster.  With that said, there’s still odd personnel decisions being made and (between the pipes) you have to wonder how many of those are dictated by Sens management.  Onto individual performances (players are organised by points-per-game, PPG):
[Key: italics = rookie, (D) = defenseman, (V) = veteran contract, (A) = AHL contract]

Phil Varone (26) (V) 18-5-8-13 (0.72 ppg)
Casey Bailey (25) 21-6-4-10 (0.47 ppg)
Kyle Flanagan (27) (A) 20-1-8-9 (0.45 ppg)
Jack Rodewald (22) (loan) 12-3-2-5 (0.41 ppg) (ECHL 6-5-3-8)
Buddy Robinson (25) 18-3-4-7 (0.38 ppg)
Chris Rumble (26) (D) (A) 11-1-3-4 (0.36 ppg) (ECHL 3-1-2-3)
Mike Blunden (29) (V) 20-3-4-7 (0.35 ppg)
Francis Perron (20) 21-4-3-7 (0.33 ppg)
Max McCormick (24) 15-3-2-5 (0.33 ppg)
Ryan Rupert (22) 19-3-3-6 (0.31 ppg)
Chris Carlisle (21) (D) (A) 20-1-5-6 (0.30 ppg)
Curtis Lazar (21) 13-3-1-4 (0.30 ppg)
Michael Kostka (31) (D) (V) 21-0-6-6 (0.28 ppg)
Andreas Englund (20) (D) 18-1-4-5 (0.27 ppg)
Nick Paul (21) 18-1-4-5 (0.27 ppg)
Vincent Dunn (21) 8-0-2-2 (0.25 ppg) (ECHL 9-1-1-2)
Zack Stortini (31) (V) 20-2-1-3 (0.15 ppg)
Alex Krushelnyski (26) (A) 9-1-0-1 (0.11 ppg) (ECHL 6-2-5-7)
Fredrik Claesson (24) (D) 9-0-1-1 (0.11 ppg)
Chad Nehring (29) 9-0-1-1 (0.11 ppg)
Patrick Sieloff (22) (D) 19-1-1-2 (0.10 ppg)
Ben Harpur (21) (D) 17-0-1-1 (0.05 ppg)
Gabriel Gagne (20) 2-0-0-0 (ECHL 14-3-4-7)
Jason Akeson (26) (A) 3-0-0-0
Guillaume Lepine (29) (D) 14-0-0-0

Andrew Hammond (28) 0-2-0 2.56 .907
Matt O’Connor (24) 2-8-1 3.03 .895
Chris Driedger (22) 3-3-1 2.84 .890
Scott Greenham (29) (A) 0-1-0 7.00 .774 (ECHL 6-4-0 2.85 .927)

The Sens went for character signings in the off-season and the results are apparent.  The desperate addition of Akeson (who was cut by his KHL team), while it should help scoring a bit, isn’t nearly enough change to help the roster.  The blueline is atrocious (with no help coming).  Varone is the only offensive player performing near expectations.  The number of managerial mistakes here is enormous, but it’s worth going through some of them:
Stortini – why is he getting dressed?  I said it all last season and nothing has changed; should have loaned him elsewhere or bought him out
Nehring – an older player coming off a career year…and he’s regressed beyond the mean; the only “skilled” signing of the off-season, incidentally
Lepine – ECHL blueliner kept afloat by Kostka last year has regressed to the mean
Harpur – he’s terrible; he was terrible last year–trade him, loan him, something
Sieloff – why the Sens thought they could do something with him is beyond me; reminds me a bit of the flyer they took on Josh Godfrey years ago (another 2nd round pick who’d struggled), but at least that was an AHL-contract
Paul – the warning signs were there last year, but he cannot function without skilled linemates
Dunn – see below (but what a waste!)
A final note on the non-goalies: plus/minus is a terrible stat, but that said, Kostka has accumulated a truly beautiful -16 (his closest competitors are -9), while Perron and the recalled Englund are the only players with an even or plus who have played most of the season.  And yes, I realise part of Kostka‘s terrible rating is simply that he’s overplayed in an effort to make up for an awful blueline around him.

As for the goalies, Driedger had a good start to the season, but struggled since returning from his Ottawa call-up.  O’Connor is exactly what he was last season–rarely wins with his numbers all over the place–he’s consistently inconsistent.  I have to wonder: does he lose this much because the team in front of him doesn’t give him the same effort?  I’m not sure if O’Connor has value at this point, but with Hogberg in the pipeline and the big ‘tenders contract up at the end of the year, I’d dump him and let Driedger and Greenham take over (the latter is much better at the AHL level than the above numbers indicate).


I know no one cares about Wichita, but I’m going to look at them anyway.  The team is 9-7-0-1, slowing down after a hot start.  I won’t go through the league numbers, but they’re in a better place than Evansville was at this time last year (I’ve noted players with Sens or BSens contracts in bold).

Alexis Loiseau 17-14-9-23
Nathan Moon 20-5-11-16
Louick Marcotte 16-4-7-11
Nick Trecapelli (D) 17-3-7-10
James Melindy (D) 17-2-7-9
Daultan Leveille 14-3-5-8
Logan Nelson 13-2-6-8
Matt DeBlouw 15-2-6-8
Mitch Holmberg 12-3-4-7
Landon Oslanski (D) 17-1-6-7
Macoy Erkamps (D) 15-0-7-7
Gerrad Grant 14-2-3-5
Blake Tatchell 14-2-3-5
Ryan Tesink 13-0-3-3
Alexis Vanier (D) 17-2-0-2
Ian Lowe 10-0-2-2
Vincent Arseneau 2-1-0-1
Martin Nemcik (D) 10-0-1-1

Scott Greenham 6-4-0 2.85 .927
Drew Owsley  3-3-0 2.49 .929

From what I can tell the primary impact the Sens affiliation has had on Wichita is getting them to trade for management favourites Nathan Moon and Daultan Leveille (from Rapid City and Elmira; both of whom played for Evansville last year–the team also trading for Moon with the Icemen).  Do these moves help the Thunder?  I really don’t know.  The Sens may have had a hand in signing BSens castaway Nick Trecapelli as well (who is good at this level).  I mentioned last time that I remembered James Melindy from the 2012 draft, I also recall Ryan Tesink from the 2011 draft.  Enough trivia.  Of the various Sens fodder included here there’s nothing to be excited about–Macoy‘s numbers are okay, but not great, and Gagne should not be struggling here.  Dunn should be loaned out of the organisation, as he’s clearly disinterested in Wichita and isn’t good enough at the AHL-level.


Finally, here’s a look at how various Sens prospects are doing:

Filip Chlapik (Charlottetown; 2-48/15) 25-20-22-42 (1st in scoring)
Filip Ahl (Regina; 4-109/15) 25-17-14-31 (tied for fourth in scoring)
Cody Donaghey (Charlottetown; T-16) 28-8-21-29 (1st in blueline scoring)
Logan Brown (Windsor; 1-11/16) 15-8-13-21 (hasn’t played since my last update)
Tomas Chabot (Saint John; 1-18/15) 12-5-12-17 (1st in blueline scoring)
Maxime Lajoie (Swift Current; 5-133/16) 28-5-11-16 (2nd in blueline scoring)

Colin White (Boston; 1-21/15) 17-10-7-17 (sophomore; 2nd in team scoring)
Robert Baillargeon (Arizona; 5-136/12) 15-8-7-15 (senior; 1st in team in scoring)
Kelly Summers (Clarkson; 7-189/14) 18-1-7-8 (junior, 2nd in blueline scoring)
Shane Eiserman (New Hampshire; 4-100/14) 16-2-5-7 (junior; 9th in scoring)
Mile Gendron (Connecticut; 3-70/14) 17-2-5-7 (sophomore; 1st in blueline scoring)
Christian Wolanin (North Dakota; 4-107/15) 14-0-6-6 (sophomore; 3rd in blueline scoring)
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack; 6-161/13) 6-2-1-3 (senior)
Todd Burgess (RPI; 4-103/16) has not played (freshman)
Joel Daccord (Arizona; 7-199/15) 5.40 .859 (freshman; worst of three goaltenders)

Jonathan Dahlen (Timra; 2-42/16) 25-12-8-20 (2nd in scoring)
Markus Nurmi (TPS Jr; 6-163/16) 21-10-11-21 (1st in scoring)
Christian Jaros (Lulea; 5-139/15) 22-3-5-8 (tied for 2nd in blueline scoring)
Marcus Hogberg (Linkoping; 3-78/13) 2.12 .925 (better than his partner)

First, a bit of trivia: former BSen Craig Schira plays on Jaros‘ team in Sweden (the two are currently tied in scoring).  That aside, I have a few observations: the change in scenery has done a lot for Baillargeon, albeit scoring on a terrible team isn’t always a strong indicator; Hogberg has recovered from a slow start to put up his usual numbers (I keep thinking about how much better Binghamton would be if Ottawa had skipped the O’Connor experiment and gone with Driedger/Hogberg).  Generally those you expect to excel at this level are–no warning signs and no one unexpectedly overachieving.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

Before I get into the business at hand I can’t help but look at the performances of discarded Sens players (Patrick WierciochRobin LehnerJakob SilverbergMika Zibanejad, etc) and feel the pain of what could have been.  It’s difficult to feel anything other than exasperation with an organisation that is unable to recognise talent and the more you dig into it the more apparent this problem becomes.

Am I excited about the Sens .500 record?  No.  This is very much a “win now” organisation and that’s not going to cut it.  I am happy to see Ryan Dzingel doing well–I think coming into the season I was one of his only supporters.  Putting aside the sustainability of his performance, he’s another example of how if you draft for skill you’re more likely to see results.

I’m not going to get into Eugene Melnyk being crazy–he’s always been crazy–it’s sad and depressing, but there’s nothing new to add.  The only plus I take from the blogger coverage of this is the realization (for some) of how soft the local media has been on him.


As you all know I’m very interested in prospects and organisational depth and this year has been exactly what I expected thus far–a disaster.  Mismanagement in Binghamton goes back a long way and that paired with poor prospect management by the organisation gives us a very bleak picture.  Let’s dig in, shall we?

The 2-8-1 BSens are tied for last in the Eastern Conference; they’ve only scored 20 goals–by far the fewest in the entire AHL.  Their goals against (39) is tied for 9th in the conference.  It doesn’t look like Marc Crawford’s liaison activities are having any impact, nor has Kurt Kleinendorst been able to bring his late season DEL magic to an awful roster.  Are the Binghamton Senators terrible?  Yes.  Is this expected?  Hell yes!  I’ll save a player-by-player breakdown for when they’re further into the season, but I want to highlight a few notables:

Curtis Lazar (12-2-1-3): the Sens did the right thing in sending him down to the AHL, but these are abysmal numbers–he’s a top-15 NHL pick!  Kyle Flanagan has better numbers and he’s barely an ECHLer.  There’s no sugar-coating his performance–he’s not a rookie or European, so there’s no need to adjust (mono or no mono).  Yes his teammates are awful, but that hasn’t stopped other talented players from excelling
Max McCormick (10-3-0-3): he needs to do better than this at this level; he’s 24 with plenty of experience
Buddy Robinson (12-0-3-3): any faint hope fans had of Buddy becoming an NHL-prospect are long gone; at this stage he’s to be a bottom-six AHLer
Nick Paul (12-0-1-1): I mentioned repeatedly last year that his numbers were being inflated by better players (particularly Tobias Lindberg); but hey, he’s big, right?
Vincent Dunn (8-2-0-2): they didn’t need eight games to figure out he’s an ECHL player; he should have started in Wichita
Patrick Sieloff (12-0-1-1): I knew he was going to be bad, but this bad?  Yikes–Sens should have taken a late pick instead
Ryan Rupert (12-1-0-1): Ottawa traded for him.  Just a reminder
Zack Stortini (12-1-0-1): why is he still getting powerplay time?  Why?  He’s too expensive to trade, but if Kleinendorst had guts he’d put him in the pressbox for the rest of the season and let someone with potential take his spot
Ben Harpur (8-0-0-0): he was unspeakably bad last year…and he’s pretty much the same now; but he’s big kids, lest you forget
Matt O’Connor (1-5-0 2.86 .899): I wish I’d been wrong, I really do, but we’re seeing the same kind of performance from the big goaltender as last year (he’s tied for 32nd in league save percentage)

I could go on and on (why is Guillaume Lepine still here?).  The one plus I can give you is that Chris Rumble has had a good start since being recalled (6-0-3-3), but it’s too early to know if that will last.  Andreas Englund has also been better than I feared, albeit it’s early.


No one other than me really cares about the ECHL side of things, but a quick look at their performance with reference to Ottawa prospects who are playing there.  The team is 6-3-0 very early in their season, lead by Alexis Loiseau (9-7-7-14), an undrafted player from the Q who was with Norfolk (ECHL) last season.  Someone within the Sens org has a hard-on for Nathan Moon as the team traded for him (as Evansville did last year)–I’m not sure Wichita had a need for him, but they didn’t give up much to get him.  Defender James Melindy (who I thought the Sens might draft in 2012) has had a decent start to the season (9-0-6-6).  Sens prospects:

Macoy Erkamps (9-0-5-5): taking the Troy Rutkowski (now in Norway) route of FA signings–solid numbers to start, but how can he not beat out dead weight like Harpur and Lepine for a spot in Binghamton?
Gabriel Gagne (8-1-1-2): these are ugly numbers for a high second-round pick; no excuse for them at all

Overall the team is in a much better place than Evansville at any time, although it’s far too early to make serious assessments.


Time for a quick update on how various Sens prospects are doing:

Filip Chlapik (Charlottetown; 2-48/15) 19-18-16-34 (1st in scoring)
Cody Donaghey (Charlottetown; T-16) 22-8-17-25 (1st in blueline scoring)
Filip Ahl
 (Regina; 4-109/15) 17-16-8-24 (tied for 3rd in scoring)
Logan Brown (Windsor; 1-11/16) 15-8-13-21 (tied for 1st in scoring)
Maxime Lajoie (Swift Current; 5-133/16) 20-2-9-11 (3rd in blueline scoring)
Tomas Chabot (Saint John; 1-18/15) 4-1-7-8 (not enough gp to matter)

Colin White (Boston; 1-21/15) 12-7-3-10 (sophomore; 6th in team scoring)
Robert Baillargeon (Arizona; 5-136/12) 9-6-3-9 (senior; leads team in scoring)
Kelly Summers (Clarkson; 7-189/14) 12-1-4-5 (junior, 3rd in blueline scoring)
Shane Eiserman (New Hampshire; 4-100/14) 11-2-3-5 (junior; tied for 8th in scoring)
Christian Wolanin (North Dakota; 4-107/15) 9-0-4-4 (sophomore; tied for 2nd in blueline scoring)
Mile Gendron (Connecticut; 3-70/14) 11-1-2-3 (sophomore; tied for 2nd in blueline scoring)
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack; 6-161/13) 3-1-1-2 (senior)
Todd Burgess (RPI; 4-103/16) has not played (freshman)
Joel Daccord (Arizona; 7-199/15) 4.92 .870 (freshman; last in GAA, 2nd in save percentage)

Jonathan Dahlen (Timra; 2-42/16) 19-7-7-14 (2nd in scoring)
Markus Nurmi (TPS Jr; 6-163/16) 10-6-6-12 (tied for 1st in scoring)
Christian Jaros (Lulea; 5-139/15) 16-2-4-6 (tied for 2nd in blueline scoring)
Marcus Hogberg (Linkoping; 3-78/13) 2.70 .892 (worse numbers than his partner)

It’s far too early to really assess performances yet–players get hot, get cold, get injured–a lot of factors contribute to early returns.


The sports network is bleeding subscribers–ten million since 2013, four million in the past year, and 621,000 just in October.  Combine this with declining NFL ratings matching the continuing trend of sports disappearing off the entertainment map of Millennials, and I’m interested to see what (if anything) is done to stem the tide.  Are sports leagues ala American car manufacturers, where they’ll refuse to change until it’s far too late (no government bailout as an option, however)?  Or will they aim for changes to improve those numbers?  When it comes to hockey I have no doubt nothing meaningful will change until its far too late–not that I expect an end to the NHL, but serious contraction is a possibility.  I’m not sure when all of this comes home to roost–most of the leagues have 5-10 years of protection via massive TV deals–but after that?  It’s going to get interesting.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes


I wasn’t a fan of the trade that brought Patrick Sieloff to the Sens, and now beyond the reasons outlined at the time we have another reason to dislike the Calgary discard, as the failed prospect concussed Clarke MacArthur right on the heels of Mark Stone also suffering a concussion.  For an organisation that wants to win now a lot of off-season decisions have stopped making any sense.  I agree with Nichols that there’s a good chance that MacArthur‘s injury could be career-ending, and given the kind of damage concussions cause that may not be a bad thing for his future health.  In classic Sens fashion Pierre Dorion has talked about exploring the trade market, but he’s in a situation where he’ll have to give better than he gets and I think the org has been generous enough (granting that a directive to win may give him no choice).


I’m at a loss when it comes to defenders of Mark Borowiecki at times–the latest from B_T is another headscratcher, where in a piece admitting that the lumbering blueliner isn’t very good his argument is that he does what he’s told.  Does what he’s told?  No one is complaining about Borowiecki‘s intentions, the problems are the results.  Look, if fans aren’t interested in winning–if big hits are what they want–then have at it.  On the other hand, if we’re talking about what makes the team better, there’s no excuse to dress him–he’s just not an NHL defenseman (regardless of attitude).  For me the real question remains: how long will the organisation deny the obvious?  In my opinion is there’s still a long way to go before that happens.


The long-expected announcement that Ottawa was moving their AHL franchise from Binghamton to Belleville has come.  In terms of marketing it’s a smart move for the Sens, as it provides penetration into a market that’s more traditionally amenable to also becoming Ottawa fans.  The shorter drive to Ottawa strikes me as largely meaningless, but when I think of the change I think less of those technical details and more about the impact on people.  In the years that I’ve posted this blog I’ve had very good interactions with fans in Binghamton, so it’s a bitter pill losing that.  I don’t think the Sens were particularly good to their affiliate, although a Calder Cup is probably enough for fond memories in the years to come.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

I haven’t posted in awhile, but enough material has accumulated that it’s time to weigh in.

Credit where credit is due: when it comes to underwhelming news, the Sens are among the best.  Matt Bartkowski‘s PTO is one of those things that makes my head want to explode–let’s bring in a guy who is basically Mark Borowiecki and have him compete with him.  Do I think the Sens will pick Bartkowski over the Borocop?  No, but the prospect of him winning that spot makes no real difference to the blueline (via the link you can see Nichols go through all the numbers).  In theory I love the idea of competition during camp, but I don’t think it’s real (I can’t recall a PTO ever beating out a roster player in Ottawa).  Speaking of the blueline, Travis Yost brings up this salient point:

Is Ceci good? I think that’s a legitimate question to ask at this juncture, considering (a) he’s played more than 200 games; and (b) will turn 23 years of age this season. Generally, this is where we see strong defenders start to enter their prime, beating the opposition back into their defensive zone and consistently making life easy on teammates and goaltenders. We haven’t seen that at all from Ceci. In fact, what we’ve really seen is a replication of Phaneuf.

Trevor Shackles wonders which Sens players might regress to the mean, with the Zack Smith leading the charge.  It’s pretty straightforward stuff and I certainly expect Smith and Pageau‘s numbers to drop (barring a full season with Mark Stone for the latter), Turris to return to normal, and I have no clue how MacArthur will perform given his concussion issues.

Callum Fraser offers his point projections for the various Sens players (sadly with no explanation at how he arrived at those numbers).  Overall the tallies seem on the high side, but without understanding his methodology it’s difficult to truly criticise.


The rookie tournament wrapped up a few days ago with the Sens finishing 2-1 (1-2, 1-0, 6-3).  There were no surprise performances (the roster is here), although fans (and possibly the org) have to be pleased the team was able to generate offence in the final game (against Montreal’s rookies).  I’ve always thought the mini-tourney was a lot of fun, but not the place to draw conclusions about particular players.

Ary M has a prospect preview up, but sadly there’s little substance to expectations or projections (I’m at a loss for what he means when he writes “I’ve tried to set expectations on the goals for each player in the Sens system for the 2016-17 season” – I guess rough goals of where they will be next year is what’s meant by projections?).


Travis Yost tries to find a link between blueliners and team save percentage, but comes up empty, saying:

For now, there is simply zero evidence that a player can truly impact his team’s save percentage over long periods of time

In the same vein, Yost determines that coaches do impact team defense (which makes a great deal of sense, forgiving the vagaries of the rosters involved).


Somehow I missed that Hockey’s Future shutdown on July 1st.  A long time fan institution (despite it’s painfully poor Sens coverage), it’s something I’ll miss (particularly articles on the European leagues).  Anecdotally it seems to be part of a larger trend of shrinkage of online hockey spaces, as the aging fanbase gets consolidated on fewer sites.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes


I started writing my thoughts about the Mika Zibanejad trade when it happened, but I wanted to give it some time before I actually posted them to see if a little time changed my mind.  It hasn’t.  It’s a painful trade–so typically Ottawa–the franchise as it has been since the Melnykian budget and Murray’s own tendencies (apparently continued under Dorion) became apparent.  Trade an emerging talent (23) for an older one (29)–this time with a local angle, throw in a completely unnecessary 2nd round pick (well, for cash), and bring with it all kinds of warning signs about Brassard‘s performance.  He’s coming off a career high shooting percentage, his stats boosted by playing with immensely talented linemates, and giving up a player already on pace to be better (just look at the compared Pts/60 as well as their 5-on-5 production).  Even the idea that he’ll improve the PK doesn’t wash given that Zibanejad was among the better Ottawa forwards in that respect.  While both were 6th overall picks (2006 and 2011 respectively), there’s no question that at best Brassard has hit his peak whereas there’s plenty of room for Zibanejad to improve.  The Senators save a little money, but this is another “win now” deal for a team that’s in no position to win now. Removing  Zibanejad and adding Brassard does not suddenly transform Ottawa into a contender–while you can argue maybe he’s a slight upgrade in the short-term, Ottawa’s forwards haven’t been the problem.  The Sens aren’t only giving up on a bonafide young, talented roster player, giving up the 2018 pick means they are surrendering future talent as well.  It’s all so painfully typical of the organisation and eliminates any faint hopes I had that a Pierre Dorion regime would somehow turn over a new leaf.  Even in reading pieces that are meant to be positive (like here) there’s no specifics that make me think it’s going to help short or long term.


On the positive side the Sens gave up their posturing on Mike Hoffman and actually signed him to a four-year deal.  I’m very happy about it, although I know the org and local media will be critical of any and all defensive miscues or offensive slumps that he goes through from here on out.  There’s not much to say when the organisation gets something right, but Nichols (link above) goes through all the reasons why it’s the correct decision.


A couple of analytical pieces have dropped that are worth noting (both from Travis Yost):
-the first explores shot-blocking and asks the question: is there a minimum threshold for it?  Travis doesn’t think the data proves things one way or another, but does think there’s a correlation between between teams that emphasize shot-blocking on the PK and those that don’t
-the second looks at which team gets the bigger offensive boost from its blueline and to me what stands out is how much more the Rangers derive from their defense corps (as Travis points out, this may be due in part with the risks they can take given their goaltending)


There hasn’t been a lot of activity for Binghamton given that they are nearly at the limit of their veteran signings.  With that said, a couple of AHL deals have been inked:
Alex Krushelnyski (son of the former NHLer)–the 25-year old NCAA grad has been a productive ECHL player (130-42-75-117)
Chris Rumble (also the son of a former NHLer), the 26-year old enjoyed a solid rookie season in the ECHL (64-11-28-39)
I’d expect both players to spend the bulk of the year in the ECHL, although with a soft blueline Rumble could see time in the AHL.
On the flipside a number of former B-Sens (or Bingo property) have gone elsewhere: the unfortunate Danny Hobbs signed with the Danish league; veteran David Dziurzynski signed in Germany; call-up Matthew Zay signed with Elmira (ECHL), and Alex Wideman (Chris’ brother) signed with Indy (ECHL); none of the changes are meaningful to the AHL roster

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

The summer is typically slow for news–I assumed I’d spend my free time playing Factions (the multiplayer for The Last of Us–a great team game with terrible matchmaking) and watching StarCraft.  Instead, despite a dearth of bonafide signings, there’s a steady dribble of analysis to comment on.



Travis Yost posted a link to a 2014 article I missed from Kent Wilson where he outlines the NHL’s disinclination to change and accept analytics:

The league is also notoriously insular, with the vast majority of executives coming from the ranks of ex-players, family members of past decision makers and lawyers/player agents. In addition, the amount of open positions in a system with a given number of teams is also more or less fixed. The result is the NHL as a business is less likely to experience new, disruptive models that challenge established ways of thinking.

As a result, there is a distinct lack of intellectual diversity. In fact, there are disincentives to stepping too far outside of the box. Just about everyone who rises to power in the league has been steeped in the same “hockey culture” for decades. There is an implicit antipathy towards things that don’t conform to NHL norms, and therefore an inherent risk to being “too different” for those whose career aspirations lie within league walls. Although there is significant attrition and relatively low career security in NHL position from coaches all the way up to the GM chair, there is also significant churn and intra-team recycling done within the confines of the NHL. Meaning one can fail, but fail successfully (ie; retain legitimate employment options) by not colouring too far outside the lines. It’s one thing to lose by perfectly conventional means. It’s quite another to fail while being stigmatized as odd by the rest of the league.

This is all too true–and also one of the reasons the league has been so reluctant to improve the entertainment value of the game; it’s why you’ll see people in the NHL seek out confirmation bias information–eg, one player had good Corsi numbers, but they sucked, ergo Corsi is irrelevant.  The general point, by the way, afflicts more institutions than just the NHL.  Continuing:

There is also a distinct difference in information flow between NHL teams and the sort of de facto, crowd-sourced peer review that produced corsi stats. NHL clubs are separate and disconnected, particularly when it comes to chasing strategic insight that will confer competitive advantages. As such, any particular insights that are gleaned from work inside individual franchises are horded and protected as state secrets. In effect, NHL teams are the proverbial collection of blind men trying to describe the elephant by feeling a single portion of the animal: they each have bits of information that are only portions of the whole.



Speaking of articles of faith, Yost looks at the mythical big man–the Milan Lucic, the Tim Kerr, the Phil Esposito–a player who can dominate the front of the net and bang in rebounds.

There’s some mysticism surrounding this type of player, but they do exist. An effective guy in and around the crease area can make quite the difference for an offence at both 5-on-5 and with the man advantage. The guys who can win pucks back after a primary attack and generate secondary attempts from premium scoring areas will find the back of the net at relatively high rates. The trick is finding the player who has this skill and isn’t an anchor for the team in other facets of the game.

Well said.  Travis digs into the numbers to see who fits this coveted archetype in the here and now by looking at shot attempts via rebounds.  It’s an interesting list (no current Sens on it, although Jason Spezza is there).  Oddly enough, Lucic himself does not rank very high on the list.


I was mentally kicking the tires on Chris Kelly in an effort to anticipate what he’ll bring to the Sens if he can stay healthy.  I’ll trust Nichols and others to look at his Corsi-trends, but I was curious about his production.  Historically his points-per-game sits at 0.37, although at the peak of his career (05-12) it was 0.45.  The last four seasons he’s dropped to 0.31 (over a 30% drop), so the usual decline due to age is well in progress.  Related to Kelly, the latest Point-Per-Cost podcast points out that his signing is a “win-now” approach, which makes little sense with the current roster.


Trevor Shackles speculates on the Sens 2017-18 roster in an effort to be positive about where the Sens could be (his speculation relies a lot on prospect projection–both in terms of their ceiling and it happening quickly).  It’s delightful speculation, but it intentionally airs on the positive side.  Realistically, not all the prospects will reach their ceiling or reach them at the same rate. I can understand the desire from fans to get hyped about prospects –the organisation has encouraged it and as anyone knows from reading this blog I like the prospect cycle (who doesn’t like diamonds in the rough?).  It isn’t that long ago that I was singing the praises of Alexander Nikulin on the HFBoards (something not entirely unique to me–the now defunct Sens Army Blog saw him as a key prospect), but experiences like that provide necessary caution: 1) org-hype is meaningless, 2) one good season isn’t a trend.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News & Notes

It is hot and humid in Ottawa and the news is slow.  That said, there are always a few things to comment on, so here we go:


Back in April I talked about the rumours that the Sens might move their AHL-affiliate from Binghamton to Belleville.  Nichols and Ross A both talk about an Ottawa Citizen story where Debbie Preston (Broome County Executive) confirms it–the comments don’t seem that radically different from what was said in May, but it’s added confirmation of the move.  All signs point to the affiliate playing in Belleville for the 2017-18 season, leaving this upcoming year as quite bittersweet for BSens fans.


Randy Lee talked about the Development Camp, but it’s hard to take him seriously when he praises dead weight like Vincent Dunn and Chris Leblanc–“works hard” doesn’t make up for a lack of skill (for those of you who think I’m engaging in hyperbole, I watched Dunn‘s entire season in the ECHL and it wasn’t pretty).  Nichols (whose transcript I’ve linked) talks about Lee trying to light a fire under Thomas Chabot without referencing how badly that gambit turned out with Nick Paul (I don’t think him being named Hardest Worker is a coincidence)–admittedly Nichols doesn’t pay much attention to Binghamton, but some players don’t respond well to the cliched “kick in the butt” the Sens reserve for their skilled players (whereas they bend over backwards to forgive the foibles of their “character” players–as illustrated above).

Speaking of prospects, Callum Fraser writes about Logan Brown–it’s more of a human interest piece than an analytical look at him, but it does bring up how talented his teammates in Windsor are and that’s always something to keep in mind about his numbers (how much is generated by him and how much is due to circumstances).

In the midst of fan questions Ary M compares Fredrik Claesson to Mark Borowiecki, which is the kind of thing that makes you ask: do we need either at the NHL-level?  Hopefully Freddy is better this year and I can get back on board with him, but if his peak performance is ala Borocop it’s not a good sign.

Via the same link NKB tries to explore the struggles of Curtis Lazar, but rather than look at the analytics and compare his to similar players, he looks at draft history based on where he was picked–I’m not sure there’s anything to glean from that route of inquiry (although as a matter of draft trivia it’s fun to do).  Lazar was never a prospect I was excited about and the projections for him (responsible third or fourth liner with no hands) seem on-target (not the sort of thing you need from a first-round pick).  Does he have time to show us more and develop?  Of course, but I wouldn’t hold up much hope for an offensive explosion.



So what do you do in mid-July when not much is happening?  Read whatever happens to be available and occasionally see something that raises an eyebrow:

There is no reason to think he [Chris Kelly] won’t fill the role … At 35, Chris Kelly is certainly not a spring chicken anymore. He only played 11 games last season

I’ve deliberately switched around Michaela Schreiter’s response to a reader question because to me she refutes herself–both facts she opens with are reasons to think he might not fulfill his role.  It doesn’t mean that he won’t, but there’s certainly reason for skepticism.

Speaking of free agent signings, Trevor Shackles bemoans the Sens not landing better bargain players without speculating on the relative appeal of signing in Ottawa.  The Sens are both a small market team and suffer from an internal budget, making winning all the more difficult–it’s the sort of situation that appeals most to older players with nothing left to achieve (ahem, Kelly, along with the laundry list of players Murray saddled the team with over the years).

I want to emphasize something Ross A said in passing:

possession metrics aren’t widely used

Sad but true.  When normally sensible people like Elliotte Friedman are still unsure of them you know the league (and its aging fanbase) are a long way away from embracing it.

Andrew writes a long piece about the dumb decision-making by GM’s in free agency.  There’s nothing new here, but he includes some funny lines.  I do think if NHL GM’s were more progressive and believed/embraced analytics most of the silly signings would stop, but we’re a long way from that ever happening.

I don’t usually read comment sections, but I did dive into a thread on The Silver Seven where I learned that (for some) calling your opponents losers was how you win an argument (very Donald Trump, now that I think about it).  I remain amazed that, not just in sports, but in all contexts how so many people seem unwilling (or unable) to engage in discourse.  It’s okay to be wrong or to make mistakes–it happens–it’s part of learning.  You can respect people who disagree with you.  There’s an inclination to say this sort of behaviour comes from younger people, but I know plenty of adults who engage in it too–I find it all bizarre.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)