I thought about going ham and doing a complete retrospective of Murray’s career, but rather than that massive wall of text I decided I’d pick a few idiosyncrasies that I think illustrate his struggles in Ottawa (and however much fans might want to give him a pass because of Eugene Melnyk’s interference, what we’re about to see is pure Bryan Murray).  For those who prefer retrospectives that are  roses and puppy-dogs, Senschirp is here for you.

Aging Veterans

If there’s one thing Murray loved it was players well past their prime:
2007-08 (1st round sweep)
Luke Richardson (38) – 76-2-7-9 (re-signed then retired early)
Cory Stillman (T) (34) – 24-3-16-19 (played 3 more seasons)
Martin Lapointe (T) (34) – 18-3-3-6 (retired)
Dean McAmmond (33) – 68-9-13-22 (played 3 more seasons)
Randy Robitaille (32) – 68-10-19-29 (6 more seasons in Europe/AHL)
Shean Donovan (T) (32) – 82-5-7-12 (2 more seasons)
2008-09 (missed playoffs)
Jason Smith (35) – 63-1-0-1 (retired)
Jarkko Ruutu (33) – 78-7-14-21 (2 more seasons)
2009-10 (1st round in 6)
Alex Kovalev (36) – 77-18-31-49 (2 more seasons)
Andy Sutton (T) (34) – 18-1-0-1 (2 more seasons)
Matt Cullen (T) (33) – 21-4-4-8 (active player)
Jonathan Cheechoo (T) (29) – 61-5-9-14 (6 seasons in Europe/AHL)
2010-11 (missed playoffs)
Sergei Gonchar (36) – 67-7-20-27 (4 more seasons)
(Francis Lessard) (31) – 24-0-0-0 (1 more AHL season)
2011-12 (1st round in 7)
Alex Auld (30) – 3.35 .884 (1 more in Europe)
Zenon Konopka (30) – 55-3-2-5 (2 more seasons)
2013-14 (missed playoffs)
Joe Corvo (36) – 25-3-7-10 (retired)
Ales Hemsky (T) (30) – 20-4-13-17 (active player)
2014-15 (1st round in 6)
David Legwand (34) – 80-9-18-27 (active player)
(Todd Bertuzzi) (39) – did not play (retired)
2015-16 (missed playoffs)
Scott Gomez (36) – 13-0-1-1 (theoretically “active”)
Dion Phaneuf (T) (30) 20-1-7-8 (active player)

Ostensibly you add veterans to make a Cup run, but there’s no corollary here.  It’s worth noting that the one season Murray didn’t add an aging vet (12-13) is the only season his team won a round in the playoffs.  Lessard is in brackets because he was on a two-way contract, but who signs a guy like that to a two-way and then plays him in the NHL?  Bertuzzi is also in brackets because he ultimately got hurt before he ever played with the Sens, but the hope was that he would.  A few of these players delivered in one way or another, but many of these signings are well beyond the keen of any sense whatsoever–Richardson, Smith, Lapointe, Donovan, Cheechoo, Auld, Konopka, Corvo, Legwand, and Gomez were all players who were done–there was nothing left in the tank and that was obvious to even casual fans on the outside.  One of Murray’s main problems was his outdated belief that veterans brought magical “character” to the room and would help in the playoffs–a bit like wearing a lucky rabbit’s foot–something that might have been true 20 years ago, but has been irrelevant since the end of the Dead Puck Era.

College/CHL Free Agents

Next let’s look at various swings at the fences when it comes to signing college and junior free agents (he did not sign any free agent players from Europe to ELCs):

2008
Jesse Winchester (NHL 285-20-50-70; technically on Colorado’s roster)
2009
Bobby Butler (NHL 130-20-29-49; bombed out in Europe)
Craig Schira-WHL (last four seasons in Europe)
2010
Stephane Da Costa (NHL 47-7-4-11; last two seasons in the KHL)
David Dziurzynski-BCHL (NHL 26-3-3-6)
2011
Pat Cannone (no NHL games played)
Wacey Hamilton-WHL (no NHL games played)
2012
Cole Schneider (NHL 2-0-0-0)
Buddy Robinson (NHL 3-1-1-2)
2013
Andrew Hammond (NHL 49 games played)
Ludwig Karlsson (career ECHLer)
Garrett Thompson (split his time between the ECHL/AHL)
Troy Rutkowski-WHL (career ECHLer)
2015
Matt O’Connor
Macoy Erkamps (WHL)

While we can’t judge the latter two yet, this is an atrocious record.  It’s a collection of marginal to poor talent with no bonafide NHL players other than perhaps Andrew Hammond (I think you could argue maybe Da Costa could have played in the right situation and the jury is still be out on Schneider, but that’s it).  The sad thing is there’s no real sign of improvement here–no noticeable trend–just shots in the dark over and over again (and their Western junior scouts need their heads examined).

I bring up these two particular elements in Murray’s playbook because they are all within his control.  There was a gradual reduction in signing older players, but that change is also tied to budgetary constraints, so it’s not clear he actually learned his lesson (despite repeatedly saying it’s “a young man’s game” he also continuously kept and signed aging vets).  As for free agents, getting one backup goaltender out of so many ELCs is a poor track record (you might count Winchester is another “success”, but I felt he was shoehorned into the NHL), and it’s sometimes difficult to understand the thinking behind the signings (Karlsson and Thompson are particularly egregious).  These self-inflicted wounds hampered the organisation and are one of the reasons Ottawa struggled so hard to just make the playoffs.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 21, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 8 Comments

I’ve been a little distracted lately, but while not a lot has happened in the last week for the Sens there’s enough to sink my teeth into.  I’m not that excited about who the Sens interview for coaching positions however–we’ll discuss what I think of who they hire when that happens.

Fans love their Old Time Hockey–nothing quite like grown men punching each other in the face to send a message or deal with their emotional equilibrium.  Amazingly, fighting has declined to it’s lowest point since 1968, which will come to as a shock to Rock ’em Sock ’em fans.  This isn’t surprising to anyone outside the org and Brian Burke, but it’s always worth noting.

On the Hockey PDO podcast a week ago or so NBA analyst Seth Partnow compared where the NHL is now with analytics to where the NBA was back in 2003, which is an interesting observation of just how conservative the NHL is when it comes to numbers.

Travis Yost looks at success in pulling goaltenders late in the game and concludes that the earlier the pull the better.

At long last the bell has rung for Luke Richardson as he and the Sens agreed to part ways.  It’s a sensible move, albeit one that comes long after his shortcomings were readily apparent.  There’s an immense reluctance among bloggers to criticise Richardson that I find curious.  Let’s go to my old buddy Jeff Ulmer first:

His only knock in my book, and it’s a big one, was not advancing in the post-season

Really?  That’s the only knock on him–everything else is sunshine and rainbows?  It’s hard to believe this is Jeff’s opinion, but I think it is (truculence carries you a long way apparently, as does being employed by the team).  Here’s the typically more analytical Nichols:

Binghamton’s decline is not all on Richardson however. … I only wish Richardson and his family the best. As they move on, I hope that this community continues to promote mental health awareness and Richardson’s Do It for Daron (D.I.F.D.)  initiative.

I’ve arranged the quote this way because I believe the latter is the primary reason we get the kid gloves from Nichols (that and the fact that he doesn’t watch Binghamton).  No one looking at either how the BSens have played or their numbers could think the coach has done a good job, but Richardson the human being has become a bigger persona than Richardson the coach.  This assessment should have nothing to do with his personal life–a lot of excellent professionals are terrible people in their personal lives and a lot of wonderful people are lousy professionals–I have no difficulty in separating them out.

The worrying signs for me about Richardson started last year, when I concluded the team would be better off without him (his flaws the first two seasons were largely hidden behind a wall of talent).  This feeling was compounded when Richardson blamed his first difficult year on a lack of experience, despite a lineup filled with veterans, and this habitual decision to pass the blame and refuse responsibility continued throughout this season’s difficult run.  I always thought tough guys were the ones to say “the buck stops here”, but in this case the buck never reached the top.  I called for him to be fired in November, but alas he was left to linger the rest of the year (I have to wonder if Melnykian cash restraints are part of the reason).

For anyone paying attention to how Richardson ran his lines and ran his team he was a complete disaster.  He consistently failed to learn from his mistakes, praised the wrong players, and failed at his most important job: development.  As an AHL coach there are always going to be players so talented that the coach is irrelevant, and there will always be players so awful no one can save them, but there’s no example of a marginal player who got better under Richardson.  Prospects flatlined or declined under his ministration, as Richardson favoured grinders and aging veterans over talent and this season was by far the best example of that.  I could go on about his poor choices and unwillingness to learn or accept responsibility for anything, but there’s no point in beating a dead horse (I go over some of it here).  Richardson will have no problem getting assistant coaching jobs around the league, but no one with any sense is ever going to give him a head coaching position again.

Binghamton finished playing out the string going 4-1-1 in garbage time.  I’ll do a full season breakdown in a separate article, but here are the stats for those final games:

Phil Varone 5-1-6-7
Jason Akeson 5-2-4-6
Casey Bailey 6-2-4-6
Max McCormick 6-3-2-5
Jerome Leduc 6-1-4-5
Matt Puempel 3-2-2-4
Ryan Rupert 6-2-2-4
Danny Hobbs 6-1-1-2
Michael Keranen 6-0-1-1
Buddy Robinson 3-0-1-1
Ben Harpur 3-1-0-1
Nick Tuzzolino 6-1-0-1
Chris Carlisle 6-0-1-1
David Dziurzynski 2-0-0-0
Mike Borkowski 2-0-0-0 (released)
Andrew Miller 2-0-0-0 (released)
Kevin Morris 2-0-0-0 (released)
Mark Fraser 3-0-0-0
Guillaume Lepine 6-0-0-0
Travis Ewanyk 6-0-0-0
Nathan Todd 6-0-0-0
Nicholas Trecapelli 6-0-0-0
Kevin Tansey 6-0-0-0
Chris Driedger 2-0-1 2.83 .912
Matt O’Connor 2-1-0 3.31 .895

These are garbage-time numbers, but what’s remarkable is how outside the top two lines (and a brief flurry from Leduc on the blueline) there’s absolutely nothing generated from anywhere else (I’m a little amused that Richardson, who has struggled with European players, managed to completely asphyxiate Keranen–2 points in his last 14 games).  I can only hope Pierre Dorion (or whoever makes decisions for Binghamton next season) jettisons the vast swath of ECHL talent BSens fans were forced to watch this season.  Excluding the ATO and PTO players, there are six players above who belong in the ECHL.

A few more free agent signings to note: Malte Stromwall (Rangers), Mantas Armalis (San Jose), Troy Stecher (Vancouver), Nick Ellis (Edmonton), Alex Lyon (Philadelphia), Sam Anas (Minnesota), and Justin Scott (Columbus).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 20, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

Pierre Dorion made his first moves as GM firing most of the coaching staff (Dave Cameron, Andre Tourigny, and Rick Wamsley); Jason Smith was also removed, but offered another position which he may or may not take.  Only Chris Schwarz and Tim Pattyson remain (for now) at the NHL level.  I hope we see a similar cleansing at the AHL level, but one thing at a time–and frankly, keep in mind this is the most obvious and easy move Dorion can make.

The only potential surprise in all this is Wamsley, who has received a lot of credit for goaltending development since he joined the organisation in the summer of 2010, so let’s look at his results and see if that praise is earned:
2010-11
Brian Elliott – the worst season of his career and is traded to Colorado; has had fantastic numbers in his five seasons in St. Louis (3rd in save% this season)
Pascal Leclaire – utter disaster; retired after the season
Craig Anderson – regained his form after being acquired from Colorado (full breakdown of him below)
2011-12
Alex Auld – worst season of his career sending him to Europe before he retired
2012-13
Ben Bishop – had decent numbers, but is traded to Tampa; now the Lightning’s #1 goaltender (4th in save% this season)
2013-14
Robin Lehner – worst numbers of his career; doesn’t improve much the following season; now Buffalo’s #1 goaltender (9th in save% this season)
2014-15
Andrew Hammond – career numbers, which came back to earth this season

Wamsley has been unable to get the most out of three #1 goaltenders (we can argue about Lehner, but he’s a projected #1 goaltender and that’s how Buffalo is treating him), while ushering out the careers of two others.  What he can hang his hat on is basically Craig Anderson, and as much as fans love him he’s been all over the place with Ottawa (I’ve excluded the 2010-11 mid-season numbers as I don’t see what impact Wamsley could have had):
2011-12 .914
2012-13 .941
2013-14 .911
2014-15 .923
2015-16 .916
If you remove 12-13 this is not particularly impressive.  I don’t see anything here that suggests the Sens are truly losing something of value in Wamsley.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 12, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

The big news is Bryan Murray stepping down as GM (into an advisory role) while Pierre Dorion takes the reigns.  This has been expected for quite some time, with the only question being would it be this year or next year.  Nichols worries that whatever gratification fans might feel to see the old fashioned Murray removed, we have no idea whether or not Dorion will modernize the organisation or not (Ian Mendes is pretty vague in trying to pump up what he’ll do).  In general, of the various people within the org, Dorion makes the most sensible comments about players, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to move away from the team’s outdated affection for grinders.  The positive signs I want to see from Dorion are to clean house in Binghamton, remove Randy Lee (or demote him), and actually embrace analytics and modern thinking.  It’s entirely possible none of that will happen and only David Cameron will exit stage left (any failed season needs someone to take the blame).  Since Dorion said nothing specific there’s no indications (yet) of what he’ll do (praising Ben Harpur is a bad sign however).

By any metric you want to use Bryan Murray finishes his tenure in Ottawa as a failure.  He tried to push the team he inherited from John Muckler into a playoff contender and failed, then tried to rebuild, but refused to follow through, leaving his team permanently mired in mediocrity.  His draft record, while better than Muckler’s, is only average and it’s an open question how much of his success was derived from the work done by his nephew Tim Murray.  In the end Bryan Murray was a stubborn, old fashioned GM, unable or unwilling to move forward with the times and his record is rife with short-term thinking and a poor ability to assess talent.  The only good question he was asked at the press conference was about his repeated failure in picking coaches (his answer paraphrased by Ary M):

He pointed that he’s been hands on with coaching because stuff bothers him systems-wise. Often, he’s tried to give an opportunity for people in the organization [assistant coaches, staff in Binghamton] who seem to fit when they’re interviewing and evaluating as people who can “step up and fill a role”. Despite this, he notes, coaching in the NHL is really difficult, especially for an assistant or minor league coach who hasn’t dealt with the day-to-day process as you do in the NHL. He’s been disappointed in a couple of his hires, and touched on the fact that maybe they were too quick to hire because they needed to rebound quickly to make the playoffs.

There are all kinds of problems with this–from his interference (and thus abrogating the authority of his coaches) to believing somehow people “deserve” a chance as opposed to using actual metrics for figuring out what works.

For those of you who have read this blog since the beginning (or in Jeff Ulmer’s case, have read my thoughts for much longer), I used to be a fan of Murray’s.  He seemed like a breath of fresh air compared to Muckler, but time has not been kind to Murray’s accomplishments and it’s simply a relief to see him give up his post.

Ary M put up an interesting prospect post which, while a mixed bag on specifics, is well worth checking out.  Things I quibble with:
-there’s no inherent value in keeping either Phil Varone or Jason Akeson; both players have topped out in the AHL and if you can’t crack weak Buffalo or Phildelphia lineups it doesn’t speak well to your ability to transition–they’re more likely to be Martin St. Pierre clones than late blooming Mike Hoffman‘s
-I wouldn’t sign Quentin Shore; unremarkable college numbers do not transition to the NHL at all (and only sometimes at the AHL-level)
–Buddy Robinson‘s limitations are those of a north-south player who belongs in the bottom-six; his numbers in the AHL have been hurt by how Luke Richardson uses him, although his ability to do anything at the NHL-level remains an open question
–Ben Harpur isn’t an AHL defenseman, much less an NHL one
–Andreas Englund doesn’t have the puck skills to be anything other than a depth defenseman, although the fact that he was signed by the org is no surprise

I wrote a piece about coaching a few weeks ago and Travis Yost put up some narrower analysis for just this season looking at various tendencies.  It’s an interesting read exploring what coaches emphasize (shot production, shots-against reduction, etc), although the sample size is far too small to draw any large scale conclusions.

The unintended farce that is the Binghamton Senators continues as GM Randy Lee flails ineffectually in signing NCAA grads.  He cut Mike Borkowski loose while adding a pair of even less impressive players: Kevin Morris (who was toiling away in the ECHL after graduating) along with Andrew Miller.  The BSens season is essentially over (3 games remain) and I’m not sure what they hope to accomplish by seeing a few games from these guys.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 11, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

The Nichols stenography machine was in action again and his analysis of Bryan Murray’s patter is excellent.  It’s baffling that Murray thought this team was playoff worthy (on the bubble maybe), but an indicator of how poorly the organisation assesses talent these days.  It’s also bizarre that the man responsible for this mess is being put in charge of fixing it.  Let me quote a related point by the inestimable stenographer:

I don’t think there’s any question that the Senators could use an upgrade on Dave Cameron, but if this offseason goes by without introducing any significant changes to the hockey operations department that will allow for self-improvement or help mitigate the risk of making mistakes, then it’s a wasted season that should have brought about positive change.

Amen.  I am a bit higher than Nichols is on Ryan Dzingel and Nick Paul, and he’s kinder to Matt O’Connor than I would be, but that’s largely splitting hairs.

Analysis

Ary M has a good memory and referenced my exploration of the success of NCAA free agents from a couple of years ago, drawing a large number of people to the site.  It’s one of a number of pieces I’ve written about on topics that remain largely unexplored and I’m glad he remembered it.  Updates to it and other things like it have been slowed due to a lack of time, albeit I did set up a Patreon in the hopes that it might free things up to allow me to go full bore with articles like that.

Kristopher Bras posted a Senators prospect piece for Hockey’s Future and it’s problematic (his fondness for Ben Harpur is inexplicable (maybe he’s from the Ryan Wagman school of “he’s 6’6 and…er…”)–I can only hope he’s never seen him play; Chris Driedger‘s rating fell despite having a better season, Gabriel Gagne went up despite showing no improvement, etc).  I’m not sure what it is about HF, but their Ottawa coverage has been poor for a very long time.

Since my last update the BSens have gone 5-5-3 through garbage time as they play out the string.  Their 188 GF for the season continues to see a drop in production (2.68 from 2.75), while their 229 GA represents a slight improvement (while still being awful); their powerplay has correspondingly dropped (17.6 from 18.2), while their PK has also dropped (80.4 from 81.1).  There are some who want to blame roster moves for these results, but this isn’t just an organisational flop, but also a sign of abysmal coaching (as you can see in the precipice the best newly acquired talent has gone over since fully under Richardson’s thumb).  Here’s the individual performances over this period:

Jason Akeson 13-2-11-13 (3 points in his last 7)
Phil Varone 13-4-8-12 (1 point in his last 6)
Casey Bailey 13-3-6-9
Max McCormick 13-2-6-8
Ryan Rupert 13-4-3-7
Kyle Flanagan 6-1-5-6
Michael Keranen 13-4-1-5 (1 point in his last 8)
Jerome Leduc 13-2-2-4
Guillaume Lepine 13-1-3-4
Mike Borkowski 10-2-1-3
Chris Carlisle 13-0-2-2
Ben Harpur 11-0-2-2
Mark Fraser 4-1-0-1
David Dziurzynski 7-1-0-1
Zack Stortini 12-1-0-1
Buddy Robinson 13-0-1-1
Travis Ewanyk 13-1-0-1
Danny Hobbs 13-0-1-1
Nathan Todd 1-0-0-0
Nicholas Trecapelli 1-0-0-0
Kevin Tansey 6-0-0-0
Nick Tuzzolino 10-0-0-0

Matt O’Connor 3-3-1 3.41 .890
Chris Driedger 2-2-2 2.93 .906

It’s the usual routine in a Luke Richardson world–talented players are stifled while unproductive grinders clutter the lineup.  The team has other options (Troy Rutkowski or Chris Rumble are better than a number of the blueliners above, for example), but there’s no ability to judge talent in Binghamton, so it is what it is.

The BSens signed defenseman and local hero Kevin Tansey to an ATO.  He spent four unremarkable seasons at Clarkson in the NCAA (151-12-22-34) showing no signs of improvement (he actually regressed).  He attended one of the Sens development camps and one of the things he’s noted for is poor puckhandling skills.  Fortunately he’s on an ATO, not actually signed, and we can hope the 6’4 defender will fade off into the sunset.

Speaking of ATO’s, CIS grad Nick Trecapelli was called up from Evansville to aid Binghamton’s moribund blueline.  He had good numbers at Guelph, but it’s highly unlikely his skills will translate at this level.

Another local hero, Ottawa 67 Nathan Todd, signed an ATO (the center has decent OHL numbers, 53-17-33-50, but is nothing to get excited about).

There was also an ELC signing out of the CHL as Ottawa inked Macoy Erkamps from Brandon in the WHL (where Sens scout Bob Lowes has deep roots).  The 21-year old attended Ottawa’s 2013 development camp; he was ranked for that draft (expected to be a late round pick), but was passed over.  Smallish for a defender (6’0), he put up consistent but unremarkable numbers in the WHL until this season when he set career highs (72-13-58-71) across the board.  He got to ride shotgun with top draft pick Ivan Provorov and there’s little reason to doubt that he (and Erkamps being an overager) contributed to the offensive explosion (as Nichols echoes).  Ottawa under Murray hasn’t often handed out ELC’s to CHL players, but it has happened before: Craig Schira (09), David Dziurzynski (10), Wacey Hamilton (11), and Troy Rutkowski (13).  This is not an impressive list and indeed the CHL is a poor way to find NHL talent.

Binghamton seems to largely ignore it’s affiliate, but I figured I’d update it anyway.  The team is 6-6-1 as they tread water towards oblivion.  Their 198 GF is about the pace they’ve been on for awhile (2.86), while their 230 GA is a slight improvement (3.33 vs 3.39); their powerplay continues to be in free-fall (10.1 from 11.9), while their PK remains abysmal (79%).  A look at the players:

Nathan Moon 13-2-8-10
Alex Wideman 13-4-8-12
Jordan Sims 13-4-5-9
Chris Rumble 13-2-7-9
Spencer Humphries 8-0-6-6 (2-0-0-0 with Evansville)
Matthew Zay 12-3-3-6
Tyson Fawcett 13-2-4-6
Andrew Harrison 13-5-1-6
Ryan Penny 8-3-2-5
Sebastian Strandberg 8-1-4-5
Mike Duco 4-3-0-3
Daniel Turgeon 10-1-2-3
Troy Rutkowski 12-1-2-3
Andrew Himelson 13-1-2-3
Curtis Leonard 13-1-2-3
Vincent Dunn 12-1-1-2
Nick Trecapelli 2-1-0-1 (in Binghamton)
Michael Trebish 4-0-1-1
Casey Thrush 5-1-0-1 (3-1-0-1 with Evansville)
Mychal Monteith 8-0-1-1
Scott Morongell 8-0-1-1
Daultan Leveille 1-0-0-0 (in Binghamton)
Mac Olson 3-0-0-0
Frank Schumacher 7-0-0-0

Scott Greenham 4-3-1 2.63 .923
Christoffer Bengtsberg 2-3-0 2.99 .905

There’s not a whole lot to say here; the team has suffered through injury problems, but above and beyond that they’ve had a weak blueline and inconsistent scoring from their depth players.

On the FA signing front: Ethan Prowe (Pittsburgh), Kevin Boyle (Anaheim), Kalle Kossila (Anaheim), Brandon Tanev (Winnipeg), Adam Chapie (Rangers), and Charlie Lindgren (Montreal)

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 4, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

Just after posting about there being no news in Sensland, Eugene Melnyk  dropped a few bombs.  Thoughts:
-I agree with Nichols (link above) that Melnyk threw Dave Cameron under the bus and that he’ll be gone at the end of the season; I can’t celebrate knowing Bryan Murray is likely the one replacing him, as Murray’s coaching selections have been between awful and incompetent
-Melnyk carried on the Sens tradition of making excuses for how the season turned out (blaming injuries)
-Nichols spends about forty paragraphs explaining why being a budget team hurts the Senators–it’s all good stuff, but just on the face of it the problems it creates are pretty obvious
-I’m not sure what “Well, not a lot of changes, but key changes” means, but again, who is making the changes is what’s important
-I partially agree with Nichols’ sentiment on how the Sens have drafted, although I’d add that they’ve traded away (or alienated) some of the better assets they’ve acquired, with a downward arc since losing Anders Forsberg and Tim Murray (the former, incidentally, works for the latter in Buffalo now)
-I’ll quote Nichols: “maybe if a team struggles to get on a significant winning streak, the talent level of that team isn’t very good?” Indeed!
-Melnyk understandably poopoos another rebuild, even though the team never truly went through that process
-Melnyk: “I’m looking at all of it [adding new voices]. It’s right across the board. There’s nobody safe when you have a year like we just did. There’s no way. The status quo will just us there again next year and this team cannot survive not making the playoffs. We have to do it by guts. We have to do it by hard work and we can get there.”  The “guts and hardwork” is meaningless patter and is usually used to justify the Mark Borowiecki‘s and Zack Stortini‘s of the world.  On the other hand, doing so would be the status quo–so who knows what Melnyk means here?  It doesn’t help that he added this:

Well, I’ve actually had a lot of experience in analytics when it comes to horse racing. In horse racing, it doesn’t work. I can tell you that. I spent a lot of money on it. In hockey, you defer to and it depends on who you talk to. It can work as a tool, but it’s only a small tool. It’s not even half the tool. It just tells you… a lot of statistics, you have to be into that, but a good, experienced hockey person like a Bryan Murray – of that vintage – they don’t need analytics. They can see it already. They’ve seen the play over and over and over again and they know how to fix things because they’ve been there and done that. It’s just another day in the office, so analytics are great. People should see it, but it’s not the beginning and the end. There’s no chance that it will make that big of a difference

This is incredibly stupid.  We all know what a false equivalency is, but putting that aside, Eugene simply demonstrates no understanding of analytics at all.  Zero.  Which does explain why Bryan Murray can bumble and stumble around with old-time-hockey cliches and get away with it (and also why the Sens will remain a bumbling organisation so long as he, or someone like him, is at the top).

Ary M explores at length the mismanagement of Matt Puempel as an asset, which is well worth reading, but no surprise to anyone who has followed the Sens the last few years.  Having finally become a top-AHL players he’s languished and stagnated in the NHL as Dave Cameron (like all of Murray’s coaching hires) prefers to dress less talented players.

Travis Yost looks at what drives coaches to reduce ice time and the answer (for both forwards and defense) is a decrease in offensive production.

Analysis

There was an interesting piece posted recently that found that Francophone officials call more penalties on Anglophone players.

More free agent signings out of college, as Casey Nelson was signed by Buffalo and Tom Parisi by Montreal.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 26, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 10 Comments

Why I stick to using generic titles for these posts I really don’t know–I should set up a Patreon for the development of better blog titles.  Anyway, after a weekend of mainlining Daredevil (when do I get my Punisher series?), I thought I’d take a quick look at developments in Sensland now that the organisation is in garbage time with the playoffs completely out of the picture (congrats to Bryan Murray and the organisation–their off-season and in-season decisions have really paid off).

The Sens are 2-1 over the past week, meaning the odds of a top-ten pick in the upcoming draft got a little worse.  The Habs, Canucks, and Jets have had the good sense to tank, but we know Murray’s Sens will fight for every last point so that the non-rebuild can continue.

Did we really sign Scott Gomez?  I keep thinking it’s some sort of Internet meme.

It’s so dull and quiet in Sens land that Nichols has to waste his time pretending to care about what John Muckler thinks, Callum Fraser leads his thoughts with the trivial news that Francis Perron signed an ELC (who would have thunk it?), WTYKY pulled puckpossessed out of retirement for drawings, etc.  I understand the desperation–there’s that shared sense of hopelessness that a clueless senior citizen is screwing things up and there’s nothing any of us can do about it.

As a masochist, I want to bring up a post by Kevin Lee from late December:

At their core, the Ottawa Senators are a really good team. They have one of the best top six in the league when healthy, arguable the best goalie in Sens history in Craig Anderson, and two time (soon to be three) Norris trophy winner Erik Karlsson. There’s also a mix of talent in the bottom six.

I have a feeling Kevin wouldn’t phrase things quite like this if he were writing the post today (and really, Craig Anderson?).  Injuries aside, even healthy this team isn’t much better than its current 34-31-8 record.  But let’s keep going down the Lee rabbit hole, shall we?

In the meantime, if the Sens aren’t going to be able to manage a trade to acquire a defenceman, what option do they have? There’s an easy one in Fredrik Claesson. … He has done everything that management has asked of him, but has yet to be rewarded for it. It’s about time the team sees what they have in him. It’s certainly plausible that he could turn out to be better than Borowiecki or Cowen.

And then we saw him play in the NHL!!  Oh gawd–a player with even more puck limitations than Borowiecki.

Let us end on a note from Kevin that I heartily agree with:

This season has also highlighted how from management down to coaching, the franchise views skilled players. It started in the offseason as the franchise signed veterans Zack Stortini (who would be named captain) and Mark Fraser as the mentors for the Binghamton Senators. Are those really the type of players you want your younger players modelling their game after?

No they aren’t Kevin, no they aren’t.

As you’d expect, Binghamton is surging now that the games mean nothing (3-0 since my last post)–presumably saving the moribund coaching staff and ensuring yet another awful 2016-17 for BSens fans.

Even Evansville (which, just like Binghamton, sits at the bottom of their division) is winning (2-1).  I think I neglected to mention that the Evansville franchise is moving to Owensboro next season (an SPL team will come to the city), making it unlikely that Ottawa will keep their affiliation with them (if there’s been an official announcement on what the Sens will do I missed it).

BLOGGER RANKINGS

Time for some fun.  Let’s see re-visit Alexa and see how it ranks Sensland:
1.The Silver Seven 791,096
2. Senschirp 1,208,578
3. 6th Sens 3,857,833
4. WTYKY 8,950,700
5. SenShot 15,711,968
6. Eye on the Sens 15,866,054
7. SensNation no rating (apparently posting nothing for a month hurts)

Should we draw conclusions from this?  No.  Will we?  Of course.  The Silver Seven needs to step it up–not going to the dirty areas–pretty soft, probably European.  Senschrip is spending to much time in the box–needs to control that aggression.  The 6th Sens are what I like–good Canadian boy and everything like that.  WTYKY–can’t even pronounce it–probably Russian–why are they in the league when a good guy like Zack Stortini is playing in the minors?  SenShot has been on the shelf–can’t help the team if you don’t even play!  Eh, what’s that about Cold-FX?

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 21, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

On the surface this seems like an easy thing to do: who is winning the most?  Take a look at Cups, at career winning percentage, and bingo-bango, you have your answer–these are the best coaches.  There’s something very tidy in that simplicity, but obviously there’s more to it.  Oddly, there isn’t a lot written on the subject, but I’ve scrounged around and found some material to dig into.

Jonathan Willis focuses on how fans and the media tend to criticise the wrong things (or focus on only a few factors) when it comes to coaching, but within that piece is this gem about Scotty Bowman:

The one thing my dad’s always been so good at, I think, is he’s been able to adjust…. [F]or a guy who’s ‘old school’ and has been around so long, he’s incredibly progressive and willing to try new things, willing to do things which are not the norm, and that’s what made him successful as a coach … he was very unpredictable … I think all coaches today are kind of – I don’t want to say programmed – but they’re led to do a certain thing. So if you can force yourself to try things maybe a little different or take a different approach, it’s going to give you that advantage. Ironically I think what makes him so exceptional is that he didn’t think he had all the answers.

Stan Bowman is absolutely right about how robotic some NHL coaches are–it’s their way or the highway.

Dave Berri spoke quite generally about coaching changes and in it he cites a study from The Sports Economist which concluded:

We find that for particularly poorly performing teams, coach replacements have little effect on team performance as measured against comparable teams that did not replace their coach. However, for teams with middling records—that is, teams where entry conditions for a new coach appear to be more favorable—replacing the head coach appears to result in worse performance over subsequent years than comparable teams who retained their coach.

This echoed other studies, including one on the NHL:

The effect of a change of coach on team performance in the NHL has been estimated in a parametric model, also based on match-level data. Ordered probit regression has been used to represent the discrete and hierarchical structure of the ‘win-tie-lose’ match-results-dependent variable. The use of lagged match results data provides a control for the phenomenon of mean-reversion in team performance. The empirical results suggest teams that changed their coach within-season tended to perform worse subsequently in the short term than those that did not. However, the detrimental effect appears to be short-lived, and over a longer time horizon the effect is almost neutral. In the broader context of the debate concerning the managerial influence on organizational performance, the results suggest that a change of management in the midst of a crisis is unlikely to improve performance by more than might have been expected through the natural tendency for mean-reversion after a spell of poor performance.

Berri concludes:

That suggests that coaches in sports are not very different from each other. It may be true (and more than likely very true) that you are better off with a professional coach than with a random person grabbed from the stands (or no one at all).  But it doesn’t appear that the choice of professional coach matters much.

If your mind revolts at the idea that coaches are a rotation of robots whose performance is simply an indication of how good their roster is, I understand the feeling.  Let’s keep in mind that there are always exceptions to the rule and, indeed, there are signs that it’s not so simple.

A newer study by Jean-Rene Gauthier finds that hiring younger, more inexperienced coaches has a more positive impact (presumably a more adaptive group); coaches with historical losing records also provide as boost, as do (paradoxically) those who have won a Stanley Cup (all the post-lockout winners, other than Randy Carlyle, are coaching at the moment).  He concludes that firing has an overall positive effect (which runs contrary to earlier studies).

Nick Emptage offers a much narrower and more analytics-focused look, which you can peruse at your leisure (Carlyle was a bad coach kids–who knew?).  In a similar vein check out THN or Benjamin Wendorf.  Taking a look at these numbers we can see that, while it may not always be born out in the win column, certain coaches employ much better systems and better player usage and that shows in their possession and other metrics.  It’s this latter reason that you can look at Mike Babcock’s lousy 21-32-10 record with Toronto and understand the team is performing better with him than without him.

What, ultimately, can we conclude from this mountain of data?  Like everything else, comparative analysis will ultimately tell you which coaches are having a positive impact, regardless of their win-loss record.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 17, 2016
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments