2010 NHL Draft (Hockey Herald Article)

[I’m re-posting my old Hockey Herald article here as I believe the site is defunct–it hasn’t produced new content since November of 2011].

As the NHL draft approaches it’s time to take a look at where players are ranked.  All the major scouting publications and websites (except TSN) have produced their rankings, and by using that as a data set I think we can determine the best talent in the draft and a sense of when they will be selected.

I’ve used the following sources: the International Scouting Service (ISS), Red Line Reports (RLR), The Hockey News (THN), ESPN, Future Considerations (FC), McKeens, The Hockey Writers (THW), and for reference Central Scouting (CS).

Most of these reports create their lists via the best talent rather than when they will be drafted.  They also vary in how deep they go into the draft.  ESPN and THW have only posted a top-30 list, while FC is a top-60.  McKeens and THN cover the top-100 picks, while ISS hits 200 and RLR goes all the way to 300 (90 players beyond the 210 to be picked this year).

Round One

There is unanimity about the first two picks—I think CS embarrassed themselves suggesting Seguin was the best possible first round selection.  That’s not to say I definitively know Hall is the better player, but there’s no question what the sentiment is around the league and the rest of the scouting community.  I get the feeling CS just wanted to make a splash by pulling a different way.

That being said, things get messier the further you move away from the top picks.  There are only 14 players who made every other list in the first round, so nearly half the players chosen are up for debate.  Of the remaining 14 spots, 7 players appear on 6 of those lists (a total of 46 different players appear in the top-30).

In creating my rankings I’ve taken the predictions and produced their aggregate numbers (these are indicated in brackets next to the player’s name).  This is a broad look at overall standings.  I then looked at where each player was slotted—if, for instance, a player was in one range for most of the predictions I ignored the free radical and selected accordingly.  These rankings are not based on team needs or expectations, just the talent level of the players as seen in the hockey community as represented by my sources.

  1. Taylor Hall (1.0) – the consensus #1
  2. Tyler Seguin (2.0) – the consensus #2
  3. Cam Fowler (4.29) – and the only player picked multiple times (3) for this position
  4. Erik Gudbranson (6.14) – although he’s not fourth on aggregate, his number is thrown off by RLR (who have him at #14), and he’s picked more often at the lower position than Gormley
  5. Brandon Gormley (5.57) – given the tightness of predictions surrounding him he’s clearly seen as a safe choice
  6. Nino Niederreiter (7.86) – narrowly beats out Connolly because he has more top-ten selections (6)
  7. Brett Connolly (7.57) – a better aggregate score than Niederreiter, but Connolly is seen as a riskier pick, appearing in the top-ten slightly less (5 times)
  8. Ryan Johansen (9.43) – a consistently narrow range (8-12), Johansen represents another safe pick
  9. Vladimir Tarasenko (9.71) – suffers a bit from the Russian flu, as he has just as many top-ten selections as Johansen (5), but the other predictions are well below that and push him down
  10. Mikael Granlund (10.71) – the comparison with Skinner below is quite close, but he just edges him out
  11. Jeffrey Skinner (12.29) – suffers in part from a dreadful rating from THN (#25), but even with that thrown out he’s slightly lower than Granlund
  12. Jack Campbell (9.17) – with goalies not included in ISS rankings it’s hard to decide on Campbell, but he’s the only goalie to appear in all other sources so this seems like the logical position for him (his score is high because McKeens has him at #3)
  13. Derek Forbort (13.00) – another safe pick given the uniformity of his placement
  14. Alexander Burmistrov (13.57) – as expected the Russian’s range is broad (6-21), but he’s clearly considered high end talent
  15. Emerson Etem (15.00) – taking THW out of the equation (at #10) his range is as narrow as Johansen’s (14-18); so he represents another safe pick
  16. Austin Watson (16.14) – consistent range (12-19) makes him a safe pick
  17. Nick Bjugstad (19.14) – extremes on either end, with THN seeing him as a top pick (#9) and McKeens out of the first round (#33); with those cut out he nestles in at 14-21
  18. Mark Pysyk (20.71) – little liked by RLR (#41), but his range is narrow otherwise (16-22) and puts him ahead of McIlrath even though he’s behind him on aggregate
  19. Dylan McIlrath (20.43) – his stock has been rising for awhile, but he isn’t picked as consistently high as Pysyk
  20. Jonathan Merrill (21.71) – a very similar range to McIlrath, but just a touch behind
  21. Evgeny Kuznetsov (22.14) – there seems to be a divide between the professional scouts and the journalists on him, likely a product of the Russian factor
  22. Riley Sheahan (22.83) – the first player not to be listed by all my sources (ESPN did not rank him in their top-30), he’s well liked otherwise (15-28)
  23. Jaden Schwartz (24.00) – consistently a mid to late first rounder (18-30)
  24. Quinton Howden (24.14) – listed out of the first round by two sources (RLR and McKeens), he still handily beats Tinordi on aggregate based on his upside
  25. Jarred Tinordi (25.67) – considered yet another safe pick for the blueline
  26. John McFarland (28.29) – low-balled by ISS and RLR, he’s well regarded otherwise (20-29)
  27. Brock Nelson (33.17) – a high aggregate number born of McKeens (#62), which when taken out leaves him with four first round rankings; THW did not list him in their top-30
  28. Tyler Pitlick (28.83) – not listed by THW, he settles in as a borderline first rounder
  29. Alexander Petrovic (31.50) – not listed by THW, he earns three top-30 rankings
  30. Calvin Pickard (25.50) – winds up at the end of the round largely because of a shortage of comparative analysis (not incorporated into ISS rankings nor listed by THW or ESPN)

Honourable mention (other players (16) to get first round selections):

Tyler Toffoli (4, THW, McKeens, FC, and ESPN, aggr 35.00)
Stanislav Galiev (3, ISS, FC, and THW, aggr 34.67)
Beau Bennett (2, RLR and McKeens, aggr 28.60)
Charlie Coyle (2, ISS and McKeens, aggr 33.60)
Teemu Pulkkinen (2, McKeens and THW, aggr 40.33)
Ludvig Rensfeldt (2, ESPN and ISS, aggr 41.67)
Kirill Kabanov (1, THW, aggr 37.33)
Brad Ross (1, RLR, aggr 38.20)
Calle Jarnkrok (1, THN, aggr 40.80)
Johan Larsson (1, ISS, aggr 41.67)
Ryan Spooner (1, RLR, aggr 41.80)
Justin Faulk (1, RLR, aggr 44.20)
Jason Zucker (1, ISS, aggr 49.60)
Maxim Kitsyn (1, THW, aggr 52.83)
Greg McKegg (1, RLR, aggr 57.60)
Troy Rutkowski (1, FC, aggr 62.60)

This article completes my update of draft rankings incorporating TSN and SI’s lists.

My sources: the International Scouting Service (ISS), Red Line Reports (RLR), TSN, The Hockey News (THN), ESPN, Future Considerations (FC), McKeens, The Hockey Writers (THW), Sports Illustrated (SI), and for reference Central Scouting (CS).

In creating my rankings I’ve taken the predictions and produced their aggregate numbers (these are indicated in brackets next to the player’s name when there are at least three sources).  This is a broad look at overall standings.  These rankings are not based on team needs or expectations, just the talent level of the players as seen in the hockey community as represented by my sources.

Round Two

31. Tyler Toffoli (34.00) – loses to Petrovic and Coyle on aggregate, but has the most first round selections (5) of the players remaining
32. Alexander Petrovic (32.14)
33. Charlie Coyle (33.33)
34. Stanislav Galiev(35.42)
35. Brad Ross (37.66) – rising
36. Calle Jarnkrok (39.5) – rising
37. Kirill Kabanov (38.14) – sinking
38. Ludvig Rensfeldt (41.00)
39. Joey Hishon (41.00) – sinking
40. Ryan Spooner (41.33) – slightly behind Pulkkinen on aggregate, but beats him head-to-head
41. Teemu Pulkkinen (41.14)
42. Justin Faulk (41.83) – slightly behind Straka on aggregate, but beats him head-to-head
43. Petr Straka (41.80)
44. Johan Larsson (42.50) – could slide into the first round
45. Jordan Weal (42.50) – not as much room to slide up as Larsson
46. Kevin Hayes (47.50)
47. Jason Zucker (48.66)
48. Stephen Johns (50.00)
49. Matt MacKenzie (50.60)
50. Ivan Telegin (51.17)
51. Martni Marincin (51.60) – sinking
52. Patrik Nemeth (52.80)
53. Maxim Kitsyn (53.71) – sinking
54. Tom Kuhnhackl (57.00)
55. Gregg McKegg (58.66)
56. Devante Smith-Pelley (60.00)
57. Ryan Martindale (61.60) – strong feelings about him either way
58. Jakub Culek (62.17) – although not next on aggregate, he has the better overall selections
59. Brock Beukeboom (62.17) – rising
60. Jared Knight (61.40)

Round Three

61. Troy Rutkowski (62.60)
62. Brandon Archibald(63.75)
63. Justin Shugg (63.80)
64. Michael Bournival (65.83)
65. Oscar Lindberg (81.75) – suffers from a horrible RLR ranking (#169)
66. Phillipe Grubauer (66.75) – slightly behind Visentin on aggregate, he appears in far more sources so gets the nod
67. Mark Visentin (66.67) – rising
68. Ryan Gardiner (67.20)
69. Julian Melchiori (68.00) – loses to Bulmer on aggregate, but is ranked more frequently
70. Dalton Smith (68.40) – loses to Bulmer on aggregate, but is ranked more frequently
71. Brett Bulmer (67.25)
72. Mark Alt (68.60)
73. Justin Holl (68.60) – rising
74. Kevin Sundher (69.00) – falling
75. Danny Biega (69.00) – falling
76. Kent Simpson (71.25)
77. Pat McNally (73.25)
78. Jerome Leduc (76.00) – rising
79. Curtis Hamilton (77.40) – rising
80. Connor Brickley (78.40)
81. Stephen Silas (79.20)
82. Andrew Yogan (79.75)
83. Steven Shipley (80.17)
84. Joe Basaraba (80.60)
85. Bill Arnold (85.50)
86. Morgan Ellis (87.67)
87. Joonas Donskoi (89.60)
88. Christian Thomas (89.69)
89. Mathieu Corbeil (57.00) – only ranked in two sources
90. Maxime Clermont (75.00) – only ranked in two sources

Round Four

91. Johan Gustafsson (90.30) – beats B-D head-to-head
92. Louis Boileau-Dominque (90.33)
93. Kevin Gravel (94.00) – hurt by his ISS (#116) rating
94. Marek Hrivik (95.67) – beats Aronson head-to-head
95. Taylor Aronson (94.00)
96. Bohumil Jank (94.33) – wild card (#56-#132)
97. Michael Chaput (94.67) – hurt by RLR (#122)
98. Alex Marchenko (94.67) – wild card (#51-#138)
99. Alex Theriau (99.00)
100. Adam Pettersson (125.25) – hurt by RLR (#243)
101. Austin Madaisky (101.75) – beats Stone head-to-head
102. Mark Stone (101.00)
103. Brendan Ranford (105.67)
104. John Ramage (106.00)
105. Antonin Honejsek (109.33)
106. Max Reinhart (111.67)
107. Louis-Marc Aubry (116.50)
108. Nick Mattson (118.33) – hurt by RLR (#173)
109. Tyler Bunz (128.00)
110. Geoffrey Schemitsch (128.67)
111. Bryan Rust (128.67)
112. Johan Alm (129.67)
113. Sami Aittokalio (162.00)
114. Pathrik Vesterholm (166.33) – the last player to appear in 3 sources
115. Vladislav Kartaev (242.00) – makes McKeen’s list (#94)
116. Sam Brittain – highly regarded by RLR (#52)
117. Jonathan Johansson – hurt by ISS (#145)
118. Martin Ouellette
119. Sondre Olden – rising
120. Fredrik Wentzel

Rounds five through seven are unchanged (other than the few players who have entered the top four; Bryce O’Hagan and Adam Polasek fall off the charts); listing them:

121. Konrad Abeltshauser
122. Jason Clark
123. Ryan Harrison
124. Brian Billett
125. Joey Leach
126. Freddie Hamilton
127. Marcel Noebels
128. Victor Ohman
129. Mike Perriera
130. Kevin Clare
131. Adam  Janosik
132. Radko Gudas
133. Sergei Barbashev
134. Mikael Salmivirta
135. Nate Schmidt
136. Petr Mrazak
137. Matthew Bissonnette
138. Brendan Woods
139. Nikita Zaytsev
140. Brandon Davidson
141. Josh Shalla
142. Kenneth Agostino
143. Petter Granberg
144. Sam Carrick
145. Lukas Cingel
146. Casey Thrush
147. Brooks Macek
148. Luke Moffatt
149. Phillip Lane
150. Alex Emond
151. Jonathan Ilahti
152. Patrick Cehlin
153. Michael Parks
154. Jesper Fasth
155. Mirko Hoflin
156. Jonathan Brunelle
157. Benjamin Conz
158. Samuel Carrier
159. Lars Volden
160. Eamonn McDermott
161. Michael Sgarbossa
162. Alex Guptill
163. Kevin Lind
164. Austin Levi
165. Aaron Harstad
166. Raman Hrabarenka
167. Caleb Herbert
168. Stephen MacAuley
169. Daniel Gunnarsson
170. T. J. Tynan
171. Adam Krause
172. Zach Hyman
173. Ben Marshall
174. Nikita Gusev
175. Jacob Fallon
176. Craig Cunningham
177. Kendall McFaull
178. Tyler Stahl
179. Josh Nicholls
180. Joel Vermin
181. Yasin Cisse
182. Gregg Sutch
183. Garnet Hathaway
184. Alain Berger
185. Michael Reardon
186. Brandon. McNally
187. Jeremie Blain
188. Mathieu Brisson
189. Charles Inglis
190. Tomas Filippi
191. Colin Campbell
192. Etienne Boutet
193. Adam Sedlak
194. Brian Ward
195. Vitaly Zotov
196. Brody Sutter
197. Christian Isackson
198. Sawyer Hannay
199. Daniel Brodin
200. Ondrej Havlicek
201. Joe Faust
202. Craig Bokenfohr
203. Petteri Halinen
204. Jacob Berglund
205. Blake Gal
206. Sebastian Wannstrom
207. James Mullin
208. Joakim Nordstrom
209. Patrik Naslund
210. Brandon Hynes

The 2010 NHL Entry Draft has come and gone so that we can now take a look and see how successful scouts and reporters were in predicting its outcome.  In fairness to the scouts, the lists I used to compile rankings were based on their assessments of the best players, not where they would go in the draft.  Nevertheless, it’s worthwhile to take a look at how publications placed prospects and where they wound up in the actual draft.

The first round is the both the most predictable and the most predicted.  Here’s how each source I used did at the end of the day:

Round One
Aggregate Scores posted here – 26/30 (5 exact placements)
TSN – 25/30 (6 exact placements) – Bob Mckenzie once again has impressive accuracy (83%)
SI – 25/30 (4) – an excellent job by SI
ISS – 22/30 (3) – given how often their rankings are dismissed elsewhere, this is an excellent job by ISS
The Hockey News – 22/30 (3)
McKeens – 22/30 (3)
ESPN – 21/30 (4)
Red Line Report – 20/30 (4) – a lot of strong opinions pushed down their accuracy
Future Considerations – 20/30 (4)
The Hockey Writers – 19/30 (3) – an interesting result given how much THW talks about their accuracy

Rather than break the rest of the draft down as above, I’ve compared the aggregate rankings (posted in earlier articles) to the results.  I choose to follow this path because fewer and fewer of the above sources go deep into the draft.

Round Two

In total the sum of the predictions yielded a 20/30 result.  The following players were listed later in the draft: Dalton Smith, Christian Thomas, Sebastien Wannstrom, Connor Brickley, Philip Lane, Mark Alt, Justin Holl, Oscar Lindberg, and Kent Simpson.

Round Three

The results decline the deeper we go, but it’s still 50-50 (15/30).  Only two players (Scott Wedgewood and Max Gaede) did not make the aggregate list (both were listed by Central Scouting, while Wedgewood appeared in RLR at #217 and Gaede in ISS at #166).

Round Four

The precentages were a little better in this round (19/30).  Two overage players were selected (Tye McGinn and Rob Flick), one who didn’t make the top-210 list (Ben Gallacher, #197 for ISS), and two Europeans who were not ranked at all (Marcus Sorensen, who I hadn’t seen anything written about, and Jani Hakanpaa, who RLR had put on a “watch” list but not ranked).

Round Five

The list became largely irrelevant this round (9/30), with a number of overage players selected (Tony DeHart, Jason Wilson, Justin Florek, and Luke Walker), players who didn’t make the top-210 (Christopher Wagner (#177 RLR), Cody Ferriero (#186 ISS), Tim Heed (#288 RLR), Mike Ferland (#187 ISS), Cody Beach (#181 CSNA), Isaac Macleod (#133 CSNA), Petr Mrazek (#82 RLR), Adam Polasek (#161 RLR/#193 ISS), and Brendan Gallagher (#160 ISS)), and one unranked European (John Klingberg, who I believe was on the RLR “watch” list).

Round Six

Things improve a bit here (16/30).  A few overage players were taken (Dalton Prout, Anthony Bitetto, and Alex Friesen), along with some who didn’t make the list (Joe Rogalski (#200 RLR), Corey Durocher (#199 RLR), Brendan O’Donnell (#195 CSNA), Andreas Dahlstrom (#24 CSE), Zane Gothberg (#154 RLR), Sebastien Owuya (#189 ISS), Reid McNeill (#183 RLR), Cedrick Henley (#279 RLR), Nicholas Luukko (#150 CSNA)) and two unranked players  (Tanner  Lane and Drew Czerwonka).

Round Seven

The final round was, as expected, the least reliable (7/30).  A large number of overage players were selected (Cody Rosen, Teigan Zahn, Randy McNaught, Brett Perlini, Maksim Chudinov, Bryce Aneloski, Joonas Rask, and Kellen Jones), along with those who didn’t make the list (Kristians Pelss (#218 RLR), Ronald Boyd (#230 RLR), Frederik Andersen (#165 RLR), Lee Moffie (de-listed #255 RLR), Dylen McKinlay (#156 CSNA), Macmillan Carruth (NR), Patrick Holland (#162 ISS), David Elsner (#56 CSE),  Peter Stoykewych (#88 CSNA), Chris Crane (#203 RLR), Mauro Jorg (#63 CSE), Ricard Blidstrand (#58 CSE), Riley Boychuk (#296 RLR), and Zach Trotman (#191 ISS)), with only one unranked European (John Westin).

So through 210 selections in the draft only six players who were selected were not ranked, making it clear just how thorough scouting services are (especially in North America).  A total of 17 overage players were taken (beginning in the fourth round).  The tiny amount of truly “off the board” picks is interesting, as it illustrates that no matter how much scouts may disagree on which player is better than another, their opinions on who warrants selection are very close.

To fully illustrate the point, let’s review the numbers (NL=Not Listed, Ov=Overage, NR=Not Ranked):

Round One: 26/30 (86%)
Round Two: 20/30 (66%)
Round Three: 15/30 (50%) (2 NL)
Round Four: 19/30 (63%) (1 NL, 2 Ov, 2 NR)
Round Five: 9/30 (30%) (9 NL, 4 Ov, 1 NR)
Round Six: 16/30 (53%) (9 NL, 3 Ov, 2 NR)
Round Seven: 7/30 (23%) (14 NL, 8 Ov, 1 NR)
Top-210 List: 152/210 (72% accuracy)
Listed Players: 187/210  (87%)

Kuddos to the scouting services and the rankings they provide.  Clearly, whatever various NHL teams do in their own scouting, ultimately their opinions on what makes a player an NHL prospect are the same.

May 10, 2014
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Draft . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

Reviewing Ottawa’s 2010 Draft (Hockey Herald)

[I’m re-posting my old Hockey Herald article here as I believe the site is defunct–it hasn’t produced new content since November of 2011].

The 2010 draft has wrapped up and the Ottawa Senators have come away with five new prospects.  The Sens followed their pattern of selecting an over-age player (Aneloski) and an unranked player (Sorensen).  In total they acquired or selected two defensemen (both right-hand shots) and three forwards (all wingers, one left and two right).  Here’s a look at what happened:

First Round

Traded their 16th overall pick to St. Louis (who selected Vladimir Tarasenko) in exchange for defenseman David Rundblad (the Blues 1st round pick, 17th overall, from last year).

Second Round

Had previously traded away both their picks (#46 to Carolina (subsequently moved to Edmonton, Martin Marincin) for Matt Cullen; #58 (from San Jose) to NYI (subsequently moved to Chicago, Kent Simpson) for Andy Sutton

The Sens tried to acquire a pick in this round, but were unable to do so

Third Round

Selected (76th overall) left-winger Jakub Culek from the QMJHL

Fourth Round

Selected (106th overall) right-winger Marcus Sorensen from the Super Elite league in Sweden

Fifth Round

Had previously traded away their pick (136th overall) to San Jose (Isaac Macleod) in the Dany Heatley deal

Sixth Round

Had previously traded away their pick (166th overall) to Edmonton (Drew Czerwonka) to select Michael Sdao in the 2009 draft

Selected (178th overall, San Jose’s pick) right-winger Mark Stone from the WHL

Seventh Round

Selected (196th overall) defenseman Bryce Aneloski from the USHL

The Players

David Rundblad (D-R, 6’2, YOB 1990, 47-1-12-13 SEL)

Signed by the Blues to his entry-level contract just weeks ago, he’d committed to one more year in Sweden (playing for Skelleftea).  Presumably he became expendable due to the glut of young defensemen in the Blues system.  The Sens believe he’s only a year away from being NHL-ready, having put up two solid seasons in the SEL (along with strong performances in the last two World Junior Championships).

Jakub Culek (LW, 6’3, YOB 1992, 63-13-34-47 QMJHL)

Ranked as high as #57 (McKeens) and no lower than #70 (Red Line Report), Culek slipped down to the Sens at #76.  He’s a big, rangy winger whom they envision as a third line player; probably 3-4 years away.
The ISS scouting report: “Culek was one of Rimouski’s better player’s night in and night out. He centered one of Rimouski’s top two lines plus played both PP and PK minutes. He finished the regular season with decent numbers. He possesses above average puck skills, puck protection and hockey sense. His skating has shown improvement from the start of the year, with added strength. He is a big project with third line upside.”  They list his size/strength, skating, and hockey sense as Very Good; his shot and puck skills as Good.
RLR says: “Big power winger has a good stride, but lacks balance.  Long wingspan that he uses to shield off defenders.  Has improved his puck skills dramatically since last season, when he was essentially a big body who played a rugged game along the walls.  Is a more confident puckhandlers – willing to carry through the neutral zone and make moves off the rush.  Nice release on wristers from the slot area, but is not a natural finisher around the net.  Creates his offence through hard work and aggression, banging and crashing down low and driving to the net with and without the puck.  Occasionally ridden off the puck too easily by smaller d-men he should be overpowering. Shows defensive awareness to cut off passing lanes and drop back to cover for rushing d-men.  Fine prospect if he continues to round off the rough edges and add pieces to his game.”  They project him as a rugged 3rd line winger optimistically compared to Ryan Malone.

Marcus Sorensen (RW, 5’11, YOB 1992, 27-7-10-17 SuperElit)

The Sens have a long history of making off-the-wall selections and this qualifies as one.  No scouting source had Sorensen listed.  On the surface the pick reminded me of Emil Sandin’s selection (199th in 2008)—a small, skilled player who had success in the Swedish junior system.  However, for the Sens to pick him this early means he’s more than just a flyer.  According to the Sens scouting staff, he’s a speedy player with good hands who needs to get stronger.  Like Culek he’s probably 3-4 years away.  Sorensen is slated to play for the Djurgarden junior team next year, but the Sens indicated that he may play in the CHL instead (assuming he’s picked in the Import Draft, June 29th).

Mark Stone (RW, 6’2, YOB 1992, 39-11-17-28 WHL)

Ranked as high as #88 (THN) and no lower than #118 (ISS), the Sens may have scored picking Stone at #178.  Stone is a power forward who missed significant time due to a thumb injury and a concussion.  The scouting staff believe his numbers were down because he played on a stacked Brandon team.  He’s a couple of years away from turning pro.
The ISS scouting report: “A native of Winnipeg, Stone has been one of the more successful players in Manitoba hockey in the past few seasons. The simple fact is that teams with Stone on their roster make it to big games and Stone generally is one of the major reasons for this. A big winger who isn’t going to stickhandle his way through many defences, Stone protects the puck well, is a pain to handle around the net and can be looked to provide reliable defensive support. Stone needs to improve his skating and deception skills. He can telegraph his intentions sometimes with the puck and is better suited away from the puck.”
RLR says: “Big winger has nice hands, but skating issues drop him on our list.  Stride saw improvement this season, but is still a problem – heavy footed and has a short stride.  Has good hands in close and a decent passing touch, but tends to be a garbage goal scorer and we’ve only seen rare glimpses of an accurate shooting touch.  Makes accurate passes and is especially adept at finding linemates in transition. Very good at protecting the puck, but skating keeps him from being able to drive the net with authority.  Despite good size and decent strength, doesn’t use the body at all.  Tends to be a bit timid in board battles and doesn’t initiate much contact.  Progress stalled this season due to broken thumb and concussion.”  They project him as a fourth-liner with hands, optimistically compared to Steve Bernier.

Bryce Aneloski (D-R, 6’2, YOB 1990, 60-15-39-54 USHL)

Unranked as an overage player, he was passed over in the last two drafts (#157 North American with Central Scouting in 2008).  The Sens would have seen a lot of Aneloski, as he played the past two seasons with Jeff Costello (#146 in 2009).  According to Aneloksi, who lead the USHL in blueline scoring, the biggest difference this season was his conditioning (http://mckeenshockey.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1096508).  Ottawa (and the Islanders) talked to Aneloski before the draft, so he wasn’t completely off the radar.  He’s committed to the NCAA and is viewed as a long-term prospect (perhaps staying the full four years).

So what are we to make of this year’s draft?  The Sens followed their principal of picking the best player available (rather than drafting for need).  Not surprisingly, the picks are all long-term prospects (it’s not surprising due to the number of prospects who are turning pro this year and next).

May 10, 2014
Categories: Ottawa Draft . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Binghamton falls to Wilkes-Barre

Just like last year, the B-Sens playoffs ended with a whimper against the Penguins (losing the series 3-1, as the AHL has five-game series to open the playoffs for whatever reason).    Three of the games were one-goal decisions and there are a few things that stand out to me about the series (Jeff Ulmer has offered his thoughts as well).

1. Four of the five Penguins who dominated in the series were older players (30s), most with a ton of NHL experience: Tom Kostopoulos (630), Chuck Kobasew (601), and former B-Sen Andrew Ebbett (200); goaltender Peter Mannino is a six-year AHL vet.

2. Lack of secondary scoring: once Wilkes-Barre shut down Mark Stone and Stephane Da Costa, Binghamton was not able to generate enough offence.  With Mike Hoffman and Matt Puempel unable to participate, secondary scoring dried up from Cole Scheider, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau (one wonders if the team might have benefitted from keeping Andre Petersson in that respect).

3. Defensive struggles: new additions Alex Grant and Patrick Mullen did not make the difference needed (the former in particular); I believe Chris Wideman played with an injury so his struggles didn’t bother me as much; Cody Ceci, just like in the NHL, needs to put more work in.

4. Penalties: while officiating is extremely erratic, the B-Sens followed their parent club in taking a ridiculous number of penalties–wearing down their PK players and their goaltender.  I believe the organisation does not do enough to punish players who continual take stupid penalties (case in point: Chris Neil).

5. Goaltending: Andrew Hammond could not win a game for his team this series, which was something they clearly needed.

In the end there was no single fatal flaw–a lot went wrong for Binghamton.  The result does not take away from what was a very successful season.  Ottawa has always treated its AHL-affiliates as a development project where winning is nice, but not something to do at all costs.  The older Wilkes-Barre lineup was much more suited to winning in the playoffs, as team’s that win championships in the AHL always have an abundance of older players leading the way.  Whether or not the experience of losing aids anyone’s development is unknown (I’ve never seen a study on it, so anything anyone says about it is purely speculative).  The same, oddly, goes for winning.  Players with Calder Cup rings do not receive any sort of definitive development boost either.

The team has lot’s of rosters decisions to make for next year, but will at least begin jettisoning some dead weight (Tyler Eckford, Ben Blood, Wacey Hamiltion, and Jim O’Brien at least).  There’s still a lack of depth on the blueline, although if they can bring Mikael Wikstrand over (which seems unlikely given his contract with Frolunda) that would help exponentially.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

May 4, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Binghamton Senators: Regular Season Review

Binghamton’s regular season has wrapped up and it’s time to take a quick look at the East Division champs and how the players on the roster performed.  The team finished 44-24-8 (virtually their exact record from last season), setting up a re-match with the Wilkes-Barre Penguins who upset them last year.  The B-Sens were the highest scoring team in the AHL, their 276 goals (+49 from last season) far above most team’s in the league and 18 more than their closest competitor (St. John’s); on the flip side they allowed the most goals in the Eastern Conference (232; up 44 from last season).  Below I’ve graded each player specifically for their play in the AHL (for last year’s examination go here); acronyms ppp=powerplay points, ppg=points-per-game; I put RFA’s in green and UFA’s in red.  Grade rationale is simple: A – above expectations, B – met expectations, C – didn’t grow, but didn’t decline, D – below expectations, F – awful.

Mike Hoffman RFA (5-130/09) 51-30-37-67 ppp 35 ppg 1.31 [NHL 25-3-3-6] Grade: A
Finally experienced the explosion in production that I expected last year and made a legitimate push to be considered an NHL player; he lead the team in points, goals, and powerplay points; he has pro speed and good hands, but the question remains is he Ryan Shannon or something more?
Stephane Da Costa RFA (NCAA FA/11) 56-18-40-58 ppp 27 ppg 1.04 [NHL 12-3-1-4] Grade: A
Also produced as I’d expected in the previous season and showed firmer glimmers of NHL potential (with solid underlying numbers–ala Hoffman, although Travis Yost seems to have backed off in relation to Da Costa in his year-end grades); doesn’t have the blazing speed of Hoffman, but good hands and offensive instincts–fitness has been a problem and the question remains how well his skills translate
Cole Schneider RFA (NCAA FA/12) 69-20-34-54 ppp 15 ppg 0.78 Grade A
The organisation doesn’t always hit homeruns with their FA college signings and while Cole’s translation at the next level remains unknown, he’s improved leaps and bounds over his rookie season; his hands stand out most (both shooting and passing)
Chris Wideman RFA (4-100/09) 73-9-42-51 ppp 30 ppg 0.70 Grade A
A fantastic sophomore season by the blueliner (leading the team in assists) whose size might be his chief impediment to getting a taste at the next level–smaller defenseman have to be quick and proactive
Matt Puempel (1-24/11) 74-30-18-48 ppp 18 ppg 0.65 Grade B
An excellent rookie season for the first-rounder, who on a team with less depth likely would have posted even better numbers; good speed and great hands
Shane Prince (2-61/11) 69-21-27-48 ppp 10 ppg 0.70 Grade B
A modest improvement over last year including struggles to start the season, but he did lead the team in even strength scoring despite rumours he demanded a trade; a smaller player he has more to prove, particularly given how many undersized forwards compete with him in the organisation
Jean-Gabriel Pageau (4-96/11) 46-20-24-44 ppp 12 ppg 0.96 [NHL 28-2-0-2] Grade A
Many expected him to spend the entire season in Ottawa (I was not among them) and while he wasn’t particularly good in the NHL he was excellent in Bingo; excellent speed and defensively responsible
Mark Stone (6-178/10) 37-15-26-41 ppp 18 ppg 1.11 [NHL 19-4-4-8] Grade A
Last season’s leading scoring, the injury-prone Stone put up good numbers again (with the same underlying NHL numbers of Hoffman and Da Costa above); he’s second on the roster in points-per-game; doesn’t have great footspeed, but a heady player with great hands
Alex Grant UFA (4-118/07 Pit) 71-9-28-37 ppg 0.52 Grade B
Acquired in a trade from Norfolk to solidify the blueline and he has proven a solid addition; savvy veteran has posted consistent numbers
Patrick Mullen UFA (NCAA FA/09 LA) 66-8-24-32 ppg 0.48 Grade C
Another deadline acquisition for defensive depth, this time from Utica; a decent all-around player
Buddy Robinson (NCAA FA/13) 69-15-16-31 ppp 0 ppg 0.45 Grade B
Like Schneider he’s another early NCAA departure with a lot of raw tools; an up and down rookie season, but solid overall as he trends upward; good speed for a big man along with soft hands
Jim O’Brien UFA (1-29/07) 51-11-18-29 ppp 4 ppg 0.57 Grade F
Pissed off the organisation enough to bury him in Bingo with a one-way contract; middling numbers given his past performance (I’d been told he’d been sent home, but now hear he’s practicing with the team and could play)
Fredrik Claesson (5-126/11) 75-3-26-29 ppp 0 ppg 0.39 Grade A
Excellent sophomore campaign from the defensive defenseman; continues to grow in leaps and bounds, keeping his game simple
David Dziurzynski RFA (BCHL FA/10) 68-13-12-25 ppp 0 ppg 0.37 Grade C
Seems to have plateaued and his future as a depth player in the NHL is very much in doubt
Corey Cowick RFA (6-160/09) 72-12-13-25 ppp 0 ppg 0.35 Grade C
Without riding shotgun with JJP his numbers plummeted and whatever hints of NHL-potential fell with them; seems to be missing some of the elements needed to become a depth NHL-forward
Derek Grant RFA (4-119/08) 46-12-10-22 ppp 3 ppg 0.48 [NHL 20-0-2-2] Grade C
His unexpected NHL call-up did not yield better AHL-returns; his numbers are only slightly better than last year; he apparently developed an attitude after his time in Ottawa; projects as a depth penalty killer and there’s still time for that to happen
Wacey Hamilton RFA (WHL FA/11) 63-4-16-20 ppp 0 ppg 0.32 Grade C
The org has missed badly in their free agent CHL-signings and I’m still scratching my head over what they thought they were getting in Hamilton
Cody Ceci (1-15/12) 27-2-17-19 ppp 6 ppg 0.70 [NHL 49-3-6-9] Grade B
A good albeit short rookie season for the first-rounder, whose time in the NHL was rocky; has all the offensive tools, but defensive play still needs work
Daniel New (NCAA FA/12 AHL) 31-1-12-13 ppp 4 ppg 0.42 [ECHL 22-2-9-11] Grade C
Any time an ECHL defenseman plays over 30 games and gets powerplay time you know you have a weak blueline
Michael Sdao RFA (7-191/09) 61-6-5-11 ppp 1 ppg 0.18 Grade C+
The best fighter in the 2009 draft, Sdao will look to continue to grow into a depth defenseman (unlike Blood below)
Mark Borowiecki (5-139/08) 50-2-6-8 ppp 0 ppg 0.16 [NHL 13-1-0-1] Grade C
A season marred by injury, poor production, and taking too many penalties; gritty blueliner is at his best a #6 in the NHL
Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11) 9-2-5-7 ppp 1 ppg 0.78 Grade incomplete
Did not look out of place as he left the NCAA; has great hands and head for the game
Darren Kramer (6-156/11) 45-2-2-4 ppp 0 ppg 0.09 Grade D
The toughest fighter in the 2011 draft, it looks doubtful he can do much more than that at the AHL-level
Tyler Eckford UFA (7-217/04 NJ) 32-0-4-4 ppp 0 ppg 0.12 Grade F
Awful last year, he was somehow even worse this season–a terrible signing (like O’Brien he’s apparently been sent home)
Garrett Thompson (NCAA FA/14) 7-1-2-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.43 Grade incomplete
NCAA free agent was solid in his brief debut
Danny Hobbs (NCAA FA/12 AHL) 13-1-2-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.23 [ECHL 52-17-18-35] Grade incomplete
ECHL call-up had 2 points in his first game and 1 in his next 12–enough said
Ben Blood RFA (4-120/07) 54-0-3-3 ppp 0 ppg 0.06 Grade F
I’m amazed he dressed for more than half the season; no offensive tools and despite his size isn’t particularly aggressive
Troy Rutkowski (WHL FA/13) 12-1-0-1 ppp 1 ppg 0.08 [ECHL 41-0-9-9] Grade F
Was awful in the ECHL as well and could well join the long line of bad CHL free agent signings for the organisation; a puck-mover at the junior level he was unable to bring that into the pro game
Vincent Dunn (5-138/13) 1-0-0-0 Grade incomplete
One game is just not a big enough sample size
Jakub Culek (3-76/10) 7-0-0-0 [ECHL 49-8-22-30] Grade F
Was solid in the ECHL, but I’m not sure there’s more to him
Ludwig Karlsson (NCAA FA/13) 8-0-0-0 [ECHL 39-11-13-24] Grade F
A lot more has to be expected from an NCAA free agent–he needs to be better

Andrew Hammond (NCAA FA/13) 25-19-3 2.81 .910 [NHL 1 game, no result] Grade B
A solid year for the rookie, who sported better numbers than Lawson; proved he has AHL-chops, but whether he can be more is an open question
Nathan Lawson UFA (NCAA FA/07 ECHL) 15-8-1 3.05 .908 [NHL 1 game no result] Grade C
Mr. Glass was often on the shelf, but solid when he appeared (he’s finished for the season due to injury)
Scott Greenham (NCAA FA/11 AHL) 4-0-1 2.57 .912 [ECHL 8-15-3 3.21 .904] Grade B
ECHL ‘tender looked good in limited duty–better than he did on an awful Elmira team
Chris Driedger (3-76/12) 4.58 .909 [ECHL 1-2-0 3.92 .893] Grade incomplete
You can’t judge from him playing part of one game

It was another successful season in the AHL as Binghamton has a good chance to go deep in the playoffs.  There are no future NHL stars playing here, but there are a number of NHL-caliber players and worthwhile call-ups which is a compliment to the now-departed Tim Murray, Luke Richardson, and the scouting staff.  The main issue for the organisation is their hit-and-miss veteran signings and their swings for the fences with CHL free agents.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 23, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 11 Comments

NHL Draft Success (2005-08)

There have been a few articles reviewing draft accuracy over the years (like TSN’s Scott Cullen‘s awhile back) and as engaging as they are I’ve always had problems with the way they are constructed. Examinations of the draft that cover a long period of time fail to account for the changes in the league and the draft itself, so the comparisons just don’t work. When articles cover more recent drafts (Hockey Futures does them at five-year intervals) they are forced to make judgement calls on players whose futures are yet to be defined (for example, Colin Greening hadn’t started his pro career by that time; Carl Soderberg didn’t until he was 27). All this preamble is to make two key points: 1) the attitude and approach to the NHL draft changed seismically after the 2004-05 lockout (due to the cap), 2) the typical make-or-break moment for a draft pick varies considerably.  On top of that, the raw overview I’m about to give is simply a window into the study, since I can’t account for management changes or know how much money/emphasis is being allocated on scouting by each team, nor am I comparing the quality of those players beyond being useful at the NHL level.  What follows is a very broad examination of levels of success within the draft.  I’ve cut off at 2008 because even the ’09 draft class still hasn’t completed their cycle of development (even ’08 has a certain level of ambiguity).  All of this presupposes the importance of the draft, something that could not be assumed at certain points in NHL history.

My framework: what is a successful pick?  Any skater who has played 200+ NHL games (along with some judgement calls, particularly when it comes to goaltenders).  With that many games the player has managed at least two and a half seasons of NHL work and that’s a solid return on the investment.

2005 (here)

First Round
17 players have played 200+ games (I’m including Tuukka Rask), including 8 of the top-10 (Luc Bourdon tragically died and is the only exception).  Only 3 players never suited up in the NHL (Marek Zagrapan #13, Sasha Pokulok #14, and Alex Bourret #16); 6 other players (excluding Bourdon) played less than a full season, leaving 4 other players as middling returns with only Jack Skille (#7) likely to crest the 200 game barrier.
Second Round
8 players hit 200+ games (the best are James Neal #33 and Paul Statsny ##44), with 12 never suiting up and another 8 having yet to play a full season’s worth of games.  There are no players who seem likely to break that 200 barrier.
Third Round
4 players hit the mark (the best are Kris Letang #62 and Jonathan Quick #72); 12 never played, with another 10 not getting a full season’s worth.  Two players (Mark Fraser #84 and Ben Bishop #85) could break the 200 mark.
Fourth Round
6 players have reached the plateau (the best is Keith Yandle #105); 17 never played, with another 10 short a season; no one else will reach the barrier.
Fifth Round
4 players hit the mark (the best are Darren Helm #132 and Nathan Gerbe #142); 24 never played, with another 6 not reaching a full season; Ryan Reaves (#156) will make it 5 players next season.
Sixth Round
Only Matt D’Agostini qualifies, with Tim Kennedy having a slight chance to join him; 24 players never played with another 6 failing to get a full season.
Seventh Round
4 players reached the plateau (all serviceable players); 26 players never played, with another 4 not reaching a full season; Joe Vitale (#195) could hit 200 games.

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – Columbus, Montreal
3 – Detroit, Dallas
2 – Pittsburgh, San Jose, Ottawa, Los Angeles, New York Rangers, Phoenix, Toronto, St. Louis, Nashville, Buffalo, Chicago
1 – Anaheim, Carolina, Minnesota, Edmonton, Philadelphia, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Colorado, Vancouver, Boston, New Jersey
0 – Washington, New York Islanders, Florida, Calgary, Tampa Bay

2006 (here)

First Round
19 players hit the plateau, including all of the top-ten picks; again 3 players did not suit up for an NHL game (Mark Mitera #19, David Fischer #20, and Dennis Persson #24), and 7 players did not play a full season; only Jonathan Bernier (#11) will achieve “success” status by my metric.
Second Round
9 players (I’m including Michal Neuvirth) hit the mark; 14 players never played, with another 6 never have played a full season’s worth of games.
Third Round
Only 3 players reached the plateau (Steve Mason #69, Brad Marchand #71, and Cal Clutterbuck #72); 16 never played, with another 5 not having hit a full season; it’s possible another player might hit the mark, but none are assured of it.
Fourth Round
Just 1 player (Matt Beleskey #112) meets the criteria, although I’ll include James Reimer (#99); 22 players never played, 6 others falling short of a season.
Fifth Round
No player has hit or will hit the 200 game-mark (or even 100); 23 never played.
Sixth Round
3 players hit the mark (Andrew MacDonald #160, Viktor Stalberg #161, and Mathieu Perreault #177); 23 prospects never played, with another 4 not getting a season’s worth of games.
Seventh Round
2 players qualify (Derek Dorsett #189 and Erik Condra #211); 24 players never played with another 4 not getting a season’s worth.

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – Washington, Toronto
3 – Boston, Columbus
2 – St. Louis, New York Islanders, Minnesota, Ottawa, Los Angeles
1 – Pittsburgh, Chicago, Phoenix, Florida, Atlanta/Winnipeg, Vancouver, Colorado, Philadelphia, San Jose, Edmonton, Detroit, New York Rangers, Buffalo, Carolina, Anaheim
0 – Tampa Bay, Montreal, Calgary, New Jersey, Dallas, Nashville

2007 (here)
First Round
15 players hit the mark, including 8 of the top-ten; 5 picks never played a game (Alexei Cherepanov #17 died; Logan MacMillan #19, Angelo Esposito #20, Patrick White #25, and Nick Ross #30), with another 4 playing less than a full season; 4 players seem likely to reach the plateau (Tomas Hickey, Ian Cole, Riley Nash, and Brendan Smith).
Second Round
4 players have reached the plateau; 15 never played a game, with 9 more short a full-season.
Third Round
No player has reached 200 games yet, although 3 players have a good shot at it (Drayson Bowman #72, Yannick Weber #73, and Alex Killorn #77); 16 players never suited up, while 8 have yet to achieve a full-season.
Fourth Round
2 players qualify (Alec Martinez #95 and Matt Halischuk #117); 16 never played, with another 8 not achieving a full-season’s worth of games; Dwight King (#109) and Keith Aulie (#116) should join the other two after next season.
Fifth Round
1 player (Jamie Benn #159) reaches the mark; 23 have never played, while 5 have fewer than a season’s worth of games; Jake Muzzin (#141) seems likely to also hit 200 games.
Sixth Round
No one qualifies, although both Carl Hagelin (#168) and Nick Bonino (#173) will get there; 18 prospects never played, while 8 haven’t reached a season’s worth of games.
Seventh Round
2 players (Carl Gunnarsson #194 and Justin Braun #201) reached the mark; 25 have never played with another 2 not reaching a season’s worth of games.

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – Los Angeles, Montreal
3 – San Jose, St. Louis
2 – Edmonton, Carolina, Colorado
1 – Chicago, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Washington, Columbus, Florida, Detroit, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Calgary, New Jersey, Dallas, Pittsburgh, New York Rangers, Toronto
0 – Ottawa, Boston, Anaheim, Vancouver, Buffalo, Atlanta/Winnipeg, New York Islanders, Minnesota

2008 (here)
First Round
16 players have reached 200 games, including 9 of the top-ten; four prospects never played (Kyle Beach #11, Chet Pickard ##18, Anton Gustafsson #21, and Daultan Leveille #29), with another 6 having less than a season’s worth of games; Jake Gardiner (#17) will join the 200 club next season.
Second Round
2 players (Derek Stepan #51 and Travis Hamonic #53) have reached the plateau, with Vyacheslav Voinov (#32), Roman Josi (#38), Justin Schultz (#43), and Marco Scandella (#55) locks to join them (Patrick Wiercioch #42 should as well); 8 players have never suited up, with another 13 short of a full-season.
Third Round
Again 2 players (Zack Smith #79 and I’m including Adam Henrique #82); 19 prospects never made it, with another 6 short of a full season.
Fourth Round
No one has reached 200 games, although Dale Weise (#111), T. J. Brodie (#114), and Gustav Nyquist (#121) should get there and I’d count Braden Holtby (#93); 16 players never suited up, with another 9 falling short of a full season’s worth of games.
Fifth Round
Only Matt Martin (#148) has hit the mark, although Andrei Loktionov (#123) and Matt Calvert (#127) should join him; 18 prospects never played, with another 8 short of a full-season.
Sixth Round
1 player qualifies (Jared Spurgeon #156), but Cam Atkinson (#157) and Tommy Wingels (#177) will join him next season; 20 players never suited up, while another 5 are short a full-season’s worth of games.
Seventh Round
Only Jason Demers (#186) hits the mark; 23 have never played with another 4 without a full-season; I’ll include Anders Lindback (#207) as well.

Here’s the success by team (I’ve included those players destined to break the plateau):
4 – New York Islanders
3 – Los Angeles, Nashville, Ottawa, New York Rangers
2 – Buffalo, Anaheim, Washington, Columbus, San Jose
1 – Tampa Bay, Atlanta/Winnipeg, St. Louis, Toronto, Phoenix, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Edmonton, Minnesota, New Jersey, Calgary, Detroit
0 – Chicago, Carolina, Boston, Florida, Colorado, Montreal, Dallas, Pittsburgh

Overview

Here’s the round-by-round success rate:
First: 63/120 (52.5%)
Second: 28/123 (22.7%)
Third: 14/120 (11.6%)
Fourth: 16/124 (12.9%)
Fifth: 10/127 (7.8%)
Sixth: 9/123 (7.3%)
Seventh: 11/128 (8.5%)

The scaling between rounds is not surprising.  Of the 39 top-ten picks (excluding Bourdon for obvious reasons), only 4 were misses, making them 89.7% reliable.  Excluding the top-ten picks, the first round is still significantly stronger than the second round (28/79, 35%, excluding Cherepanov for the same obvious reason).  The third and fourth, and then fifth-seventh rounds are roughly all on equal footing in terms of results.  Given the lack of decline after the second round there are clearly missing factors in the way NHL teams scout (otherwise the trend should go downward each round consistently), albeit the above data is a small sample (just four years).

Team Performance
Los Angeles 11
Columbus 10
Montreal, San Jose, Toronto, St. Louis 8
Ottawa, New York Rangers, Washington 7
Detroit, Nashville, New York Islanders 6
Phoenix, Buffalo, Edmonton 5
Dallas, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Anaheim, Carolina, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Colorado, Boston 4
Atlanta/Winnipeg, Vancouver, New Jersey 3
Florida, Calgary, Tampa Bay 2

It’s difficult to imagine any scouting staff could completely whiff on an entire year, but awful organisations of the time are on display among the bottom-feeders here.  It’s interesting that LA is in the midst of benefitting from excellent scouting right now, whereas Columbus is experiencing much more modest gains from their success (here’s where the difference between quality of players manifests itself most clearly).  It seems like a good year for scouts is 2 NHL players (more than that is excellent), while there should always be at least one found.

My hope is that others will dig a little deeper into the draft and glean a bit more the how and why behind the numbers–a few basic factors (poor coverage of Europe and the dismissal of smaller players) are clearly a factor (as explored here in a look at undrafted success stories).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 19, 2014
Categories: NHL Draft, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

Wrapping up Ottawa’s 2013-14 Season

It’s time to clean up the blood and entrails of the Sens 2013-14 season, the one Rob Vollman was convinced would result in a President’s Trophy for the Sens.  Looking back Daniel Alfredsson‘s decision to jump ship for Detroit has paid off, while the Sens inability to release dead weight like Chris Neil and Chris Phillips remains as inexplicable as management trading for Matt Kassian last year (hard to believe he played 33 games this year).

Ottawa finished 37-31-14, putting them fifth in their division, eleventh in the conference, and twenty-first in the league.  The Sens won’t benefit from a top-ten pick as they peddled it for Bobby Ryan over the summer and as the 2014 draft class is considered weak, I’m not sure how much they’ll profit from their other selections.  Assistant GM Tim Murray was allowed to jump ship to Buffalo mid-season, which was good for Tim, but a rather odd move for the organisation given how integral he was for their prospects and system.  This was a season that saw Mika Zibanejad demoted to Binghamton for no particular reason while penny-pinching ownership buried Jim O’Brien‘s one-way contract in the minors (if the guy is such a disturbance loan him to Europe or another AHL team–Binghamton was an odd choice).

Reports that Jason Spezza will be moved seem to have a solid basis and whatever the merits of that decision (assuming they find a dance partner), I can’t help but look at his price tag and wonder how much the motivation to move him is attached to it.  For me, a player with chronic back problems is always an incident away from being out of the lineup anyway, so why not make the transition to Kyle Turris fronting the team (there’s no possibility of the Sens getting a #1 center in return for their captain).  Can the Sens keep Ales Hemsky without Spezza?  Time will tell, albeit Hemsky may not want to stick around for the gong show that is Eugene Melnyk.

The logjam on the blueline going into next season should see some player movement (it still boggles my mind that the Sens bothered signing Joe Corvo over the summer).  A lot of fans have latched onto Mark Borowiecki‘s one-way contract as making him being a lock on the team, which I don’t buy (besides the aforementioned O’Brien they also buried Corvo‘s salary in the AHL).  Murray has to make a decision on Eric Gryba (RFA) and there’s no guarantee Cody Ceci is in the lineup, but whatever the roster is I don’t think they’ll move Patrick Wiercioch who was so poorly used this season.

Speaking of reports/rumours, Paul MacLean may be on the hot seat.  It’s an easy out for management to lay the blame for a disappointing season on the coaching staff, but there actually were a lot of perplexing decisions this year (using the Chris‘ on the powerplay; MacLean’s addiction to the Greening-Smith-Neil line; etc).  Did the Sens miss the playoffs because of MacLean?  I don’t think so–ultimately that responsibility is on the roster and (therefore) management, but perhaps it’s time for a fresh voice.

I’ve included stats below (keep in mind plus/minus is meaningless); it’s bemusing that Erik Karlsson can think of his year as subpar–sure he can be better, but a middling year from EK is better than virtually every other defenseman.  Milan Michalek coming off the books is good–Mr. Glass is a good player, but the years have not been kind to him.  Of the young forwards who spent time in the NHL (Mark Stone, Mike Hoffman, Stephane Da Costa, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, and Derek Grant) it looks like Stone is most likely to make the jump next season.  I think Ottawa keeps Hoffman (he’s an RFA), but I can’t figure out if he’s Ryan Shannon or something more.  There’s a lot of talk about Curtis Lazar making the jump directly to the NHL (he can’t play in the AHL), but with a young player I take a wait and see attitude.

A little more generally, this year we saw analytics triumphantly predict Toronto’s failure, allowing older hack journalists (Steve Simmons, Damien Cox, etc) to embarrass themselves the entire season by mocking them.  Corsi, Fenwick, and all the other tools are in place are allowing fans (if not management) to understand what a player like Erik Condra accomplishes, along with exploding various long-held myths (like hits having any importance at all).

 

1. Erik Karlsson (D) 82 20 54 74 36 -15 |
2. Jason Spezza (F) 75 23 43 66 46 -26 |
3. Kyle Turris (F) 82 26 31 57 39 22 |
4. Clarke MacArthur (F) 79 24 32 56 78 12 |
5. Bobby Ryan (F) 70 23 25 48 45 7 |
6. Milan Michálek (F) 82 17 22 39 41 -25 |
7. Mika Zibanejad (F) 69 16 17 33 18 -15 |
8. Marc Methot (D) 75 6 17 23 28 0 |
9. Patrick Wiercioch (D) 53 4 19 23 20 -1 |
10. Zack Smith (F) 82 13 9 22 111 -9 |
.    
11. Cory Conacher (F) 60 4 16 20 34 8 |
12. Colin Greening (F) 76 6 11 17 41 -15 |
13. Ales Hemsky (F) 20 4 13 17 4 -2 |
14. Erik Condra (F) 76 6 10 16 30 0 |
15. Jared Cowen (D) 68 6 9 15 45 0 |
16. Chris Phillips (D) 70 1 14 15 30 -12 |
17. Chris Neil (F) 76 8 6 14 211 -10 |
18. Eric Gryba (D) 57 2 9 11 64 9 |
19. Joe Corvo (D) 25 3 7 10 10 -7 |
20. Cody Ceci (D) 49 3 6 9 14 -5 |
21. Mark Stone (F) 19 4 4 8 4 5 |
.    
22. Mike Hoffman (F) 25 3 3 6 2 -2 |
23. Stéphane Da Costa (F) 12 3 1 4 2 2 |
24. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (F) 28 2 0 2 12 -5 |
25. Matt Kassian (F) 33 1 1 2 63 -1 |
26. Derek Grant (F) 20 0 2 2 4 -3 |
27. Mark Borowiecki (D) 13 1 0 1 48 -2 |
1. Andrew Hammond 1 0.00 1.000 |
2. Nathan Lawson 1 10.00 .800 |
3. Craig Anderson 53 3.00 .911 |
4. Robin Lehner 36 3.06 .913 |

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 14, 2014
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 5 Comments

Senators News: April 9th

Both Ottawa and the Leafs were officially eliminated last night, a fact Sens fans have accepted for a while, but Leafs fans are having difficult times coming to terms with.  It’s difficult to encapsulate how badly Ottawa’s management misjudged their roster this year and I’m sure even in a bad draft Bryan Murray wishes he had his pick back.  This doesn’t mean the Sens will be as bad next year, but it should temper expectations.

Manny looks at the reasons why the Sens failed to make the playoffs this year and points to the following: goaltending, possession, penalties, and player usage.  Three of those four are heavily influenced by coaching (Travis Yost also looks at shot blocking, which also falls under this umbrella), so Paul MacLean should be under the microscope.  Will he be fired?  Some are making the financial argument that they won’t want to pay MacLean not to coach (of course, if he’s hired elsewhere that obligation disappears), but a successful team is far more valuable to ownership and if they believe that can happen with another coach, a change will be made.

Elliotte Friedman explores the futures of Jason Spezza and Bobby Ryan with the Sens and Nichols (via the link) would rather both be moved than simply maintain the status quo.  Given the organisations odd obsession with veterans (Neil and Phillips), perhaps the status quo is exactly what we’ll get.  I really don’t know what to want from the situation, althoughSpezza is disposable given his chronic back problems.

The Sens are trying to trade the rights of Francois Brassard (6-166/12), although it’s hard to imagine what they would get back if they can find a dance partner (not much presumably).  Brassard is a victim of numbers, behind the just-signed Chris Driedger and 2013 draft pick Marcus Hogberg.

Peter Morrow looks at the Sens Swedish and NCAA prospects where he includes a little scouting information, but not where he got it from (it isn’t noted, so I’d take it with a grain of salt).

Speaking of prospects, here’s an update (signed players are in italics):

SHL
Mikael Wikstrand (Frolunda, D) 20-4-7-11

NCAA
Ryan Dzingel (Ohio, C) 37-22-24-46
Max McCormick (Ohio, LW) 37-11-24-35
Robert Baillargeon (BU, C) 35-10-17-27
Quentin Shore (Denver, C) 33-7-18-25
Chris Leblanc (Merrimack, RW) 23-6-6-12

CHL
Curtis Lazar (Edmonton, C) 58-41-35-76
Vincent Dunn (Gatineau, LW) 50-31-20-51
Ben Harpur (Guelph, D) 67-3-13-16
Jarrod Maidens (injured)
Chris Driedger (Calgary, G) 28-14-7 2.64 .918
Francois Brassard (Quebec, G) 28-12-9 2.95 .909

Allsvenskan
Marcus Hogberg (Mora, G) 5-8-0 2.93 .892

SuperElit
Tobias Lindberg (Djurgardens, RW) 21-6-5-11

USPHL
Tim Boyle (South Shore Kings, D) 35-4-15-19

I’ve never understood all the hate that Alexander Ovechkin gets from traditional media, so I was quite happy when he hit the 50-goal plateau last night (well ahead of Corey Perry which makes him a lock to receive the Rocket Richard trophy). Speaking of production, the NHL’s limp attempts to increase scoring continue to fail as only Sidney Crosby will finish the season with over 100-points.  Fans like points–if defensive hockey sold then the dead puck era would have resulted in remarkable growth.  I don’t expect this to change, but it’s worth noting.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 9, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Senators News: April 4th

As the Sens season winds down to its disappointing conclusion the organisation has signed a few players to ELC–one expected, one hoped for, and 0ne off the radar:

Goaltender Chris Driedger (3-76/12) has wrapped up his CHL career in Calgary and has signed an ATO to play for Elmira in the ECHL.  Driedger established a career high in save percentage (.918, slightly above the .915 from last year) and has a good chance to back up Andrew Hammond in Binghamton next season if (as I suspect) the oft-injured Nathan Lawson goes elsewhere.  For an extensive scouting report on the goaltender go here.

The hoped-for signee is Ryan Dzingel (7-204/11); the seventh round pick had another year of NCAA eligibility, but choose to turn pro with an ATO with Binghamton where he’s expected to play.  There was nothing left for Dzingel to prove at Ohio State as his numbers have improved in every respect each year (37-22-24-46 this year, leading his team in scoring).  Here‘s a scouting report on him.

The surprising player is collegiate free agent Garrett Thompson; the 24-year old Ferris State grad finished his senior year tied for the lead in scoring (43-16-16-32) and has signed an ATO in Binghamton and is expected to play.  Thompson was not ranked when he was draft eligible nor was he heavily recruited.  Described as a hard-working, meat and potatoes player he doesn’t look like an NHL-caliber player on the surface, but the team wouldn’t sign him to an ELC if they didn’t believe he had that potential, so we’ll have to see what happens.

The addition of two more forwards adds to the glut in Binghamton and we have to assume more roster moves are planned (beyond trading away Andre Petersson and the rights to Jeff Costello), even if purely through attrition (ie, letting contracts expire at season’s end).  The Sens also need to make decisions on Francois Brassard and Jarrod Maidens or lose their rights to them (both were 2012 draft picks)–I suspect neither will be signed (I consider signing Mikael Wikstrand a foregone conclusion).

As for the NHL team itself, rumours have surfaced that Paul MacLean’s head might be on the block.  MacLean’s player usage, assuming it’s completely his decision, is so perplexing even Travis Yost has no idea what he’s doing:

Chris Phillips, Chris Neil, Zack Smith — are regularly being sent over the boards, rewarded with ice-time when things maybe aren’t going in the team’s favor. Why? I have no discernible idea. I hear often how these guys give an “honest shift”, playing hard through and after the whistles. That’s fantastic. They’re killed in the areas where hockey matters, energy or not, and they’ve certainly contributed adversely to this team’s position in the standings more than a lot of the other guys. I have no idea why so much time this season has been spent sending messages and banishing productive players and rewarding guys who just get obliterated against the competition, but that’s more or less what’s occurred here.

He’s not the only one confused.  If MacLean stays presumably this puzzling player usage will continue, but if Bryan Murray shares his coaches philosophy I’m not sure a new voice will be any different.  Time will tell.

A little more Binghamton news: the always disappointing Ben Blood has been sent down to Elmira.  There’s no reason to expect Ottawa to retain his rights once the season (and his ELC) is over.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

April 4, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

A Brief Thought on the Sens Player Usage

I’ve long been puzzled by the love affair the Sens organisation has had with Chris Phillips and Chris Neil (neither of whom I would have resigned–either recently or previously).  The latter fits the old school belief that a team needs tough guys, but I have no idea what Phillips has done in the post-05 lockout that warrants anything other than migraine-levels of frustration.  The same love for Neil seems to blanket poor Colin Greening, who (despite the evidence in analytics) I want to think can be a better player.  Why do these players receive so much ice time (19:42 for Phillips boggles the mind)?  The veterans never get scratched no matter how poorly they perform on the ice–what about accountability?  I really can’t explain it.  The love affair has lasted through different GM’s and a large rotation of coaches.  There are still NHL coaches who buy into “toughness” being relevant, which helps explain Neil, but I keep hoping someone out there will find some concrete reason why the Big Rig hits the ice with regularity.  Sure, Jared Cowen‘s usage also raises eyebrows, but he’s a young player and has had to endure the wrath of the fans all season (something that seems to have affected him), so I don’t see it as quite the same thing.  All I ever hear about #4 is leadership, but surely that’s not enough (and frankly, what leadership?).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 20, 2014
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: March 17th

St. Patrick’s Day seems like an opportune time to add some thoughts as the Sens season goes into the drink (Varada see’s no reason for hysteria, as the Sens are exactly the bubble team he predicted–I wince a bit when he says “most” people felt that way–Rob Vollman and others were very high on the team).  The off-season is less than a month away (April 14th kids, mark your calendars), and I think obituaries should be held until then.  Regardless, since I last chimed in on the season the Sens have gone 1-3-2 and seen their tiny playoff odds slip to almost non-existent.  It turns out those November musings that the season was over (referenced here) were spot on.  As Nichols points out (props on being paid for your opinion amigo–it’s well deserved), the Sens aren’t that different a team from this year to last, but they aren’t receiving the miracle goaltending of the lockout shortened campaign.  However, I’m not a fan of this thought:

if Bryan Murray can add better two-way forwards

I think Sens have an over abundance of forwards to whom that appellation is given (albeit not by Nichols), eg the lamentable Greening-Smith-Neil (Manny does his best to understand Paul MacLean’s obsession with the trio, concluding its their zone entries that he loves so much).  I actually like the Sens defence, minus the re-signed Chris Phillips (if he’s good in the room, leave him in the room) and Jared Cowen–at least the latter has hope to improve (Manny does a good job describing Eric Gryba, “he’s a serviceable bottom-pairing defenseman”).

-Any move that Don Brennan doesn’t like is going to be a good one, but no one needs his idiotic opinion to realise the acquisition of Ales Hemsky at the deadline was a good move and I hope he isn’t just a rental.   I wasn’t a fan of trading Andre Petersson, but this is the final year of his ELC and clearly the organisation thinks it has more than enough forward prospects to let him go (the much less interesting NCAA prospect Jeff Costello was also jettisoned).  Speaking of undersized forwards, Corey Conacher was gifted to Bryan’s nephew Tim via the waiver wire–while he didn’t score much in Ottawa, his underlying metrics were very good and it wouldn’t surprise me if he blossomed as a Sabre.  Dumping Joe Corvo into the AHL made sense–his addition over the summer seemed pointless to me at the time and it was a mercy for him and the team to move on.

–Manny gives us some analytics on scoring chances and after a lengthy exploration concludes:

Possession is the component that drives even-strength scoring. The results herein further enforce the notion that goal-based statistics do not provide adequate assessments of players’ overall performances, but rather the summation of innumerable factors in constant flux. Though possession drives scoring opportunities and in turn, those opportunities goals, too much becomes lost in translation at the individual level. Given what we know, it’s best to rely on bulk shot-based metrics to provide statistical insight into how a player contributes towards out-scoring opponents.

I recommend reading the entire article.

–Amelia L does a great job looking at the disappointing effort Sportsnet is putting into its planned national broadcast coverage of the NHL (Fox News style–aim for old white men as your audience).  My favourite bit:

Analysts like Friedman have tried to drag HNIC into the 21st century on issues as diverse as player safety and statistical analysis but the show as a whole remains firmly lodged in the past. Too often Friedman, who embraces social media and hockey’s growing online voices, is shouted down by PJ Stock and Glenn Healy, the current embodiments of hockey’s archaic “code” culture. Too often the loudest panelist wins on HNIC, regardless of how well his argument has been articulated.

This is one of the many reasons I don’t watch HNIC unless I have no choice.

–Jared Crozier offers us this:

I have laid the blame on the official before, and will probably do so again, so this might be a little hyppocritcal. But at some point the Senators fan base has to look at the team they support and see that it is more their doing than the guys in stripes.

Put aside Jared’s anger at people blaming officials when he plans on blaming them in the future and go more to the point: simply accept NHL officiating is bad and your lives will be more peaceful.

–Jeremy Milks gets self-reflective:

For some reason I’ve gotten that reputation [of liking tough guys over skilled guys] in the Sens small but fiercely opinionated online community and maybe that’s my own fault. … Even if I’m wrong sometimes, I take satisfaction in defending a player that gets almost unanimous scorn. … I don’t want to turn this into another stats argument and point to a bunch of numbers. We all know they’re good.

I like that Jeremy wants to defend underdogs and not simply bow to the opinion of the majority (albeit his opinions are the majority in print/radio/TV media), but I do find his disinclination to deal with stats amusing.  He has to know that stats are a way of describing and analysing the events he’s seeing, so they (should) provide insight rather than get in the way of discussion.

–Jeff Ulmer continues to provide great coverage of Binghamton’s season (the B-Sens finally getting out of their funk as they reclaimed first place in the East); former beat reporter PuckJoy is also doing a great job on Twitter doing the same.

–Peter Morrow offers us his top-20 prospect list; there’s no real analysis (or rationale for how players are compared–is it fulfilling their potential, against each other’s potential, how ready they are, or what?), but for list-lovers everywhere it creates room for debate and discussion.

-I didn’t cite Travis Yost here, but do yourself a favour and follow him (TravisHeHateMe)

-A very different flavour, but PuckPossessed is also someone to watch on your Twitter dial

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

March 17, 2014
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 3 Comments

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