Senators News: September 5th

-The Senators have announced a four-year contract extension for Zack Smith for with a cap hit of 1.887,500.  It’s a big increase on his current salary (700k), but the organisation has been a fan of his since they drafted him and he’s the type of player every team wants.  The team paid a little extra to buy out some of his time as a free agent (the deal will end when Smith is 29).  Nichols and the Raaymaker have mixed feelings on the extension, but physical players can always be traded and at less than 2 million per season finding a dance partner wouldn’t be difficult.

–Mike Johnston picks Kyle Turris and Marc Methot (!) as his breakout players for the Sens this season.  At age 27 Methot isn’t someone I’d expect to radically improve.

–Nichols offers this about the upcoming season:

When your favorite hockey team is not in a position to be contending for a Stanley Cup, there is only one thing that organization can sell you on as a fan: hope.

He goes on to talk about the basis of that hope and I agree wholeheartedly with him on the general point.  Ottawa is not going to challenge for the Cup and is touch and go to make the playoffs, but the on-ice product should be entertaining and there are good players in the pipeline.  The main point of concern is that virtually none of the prospects are puck-moving defensemen (Cody Ceci being the exception).  Puck control begins at the back end and the team might find themselves sorely pressed with their current blueline.

-I finish off my look at undrafted success stories in the post-lockout NHL.

–Adam Proteau offers his opinion on the best hockey to watch if the NHL season does not start on time:
1. AHL
2. CHL
3. KHL
4. NCAA
5. CWHL (women’s hockey)
6. SEL
7. DEL
8. Junior B
9. ECHL
10. SM-Liiga
The decision really depends on the kind of hockey you want to watch.  If it’s based on the most talented league available then you’ll watch the KHL.  If it’s based on style of play, none comes closer than the AHL.  If it’s pure entertainment it’s much more a matter of personal taste.  For me, my eye will be on the AHL and on Europe–I like watching hockey I wouldn’t normally see in these circumstances.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

September 5, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Undrafted Success Stories in the Post-Lockout NHL

This is my final look at players who slipped through the cracks (the NHL draft), but made their way to the league through other means.  I’ve previously explored European, college, and the ECHL routes, and I’ve included those players here to create a master list of players who came to the NHL by routes other than the draft.  At the end of the article I’ll illustrate the best players missed via the NHL’s normal processes.

CHL (7)
2005
Chad Larose (W) 473 NHL games
An undersized forward who went undrafted out of the OHL, he played 125 games in the AHL before making the jump to the NHL in 05-06; he remains with Carolina
Mark Giordano (D) 338 NHL games
Undrafted out of the OHL, he played 144 AHL games before making the permanent jump to the NHL in 06-07; he remains with Calgary
2006
Dan Girardi (D) 442 NHL games
Inexplicably not drafted out of the OHL, he played 111 AHL games before making the permanent jump into the NHL in 06-07; he remains with the Rangers
Mike Wall (G) 4 NHL games
A WHL graduate, he spent most of his career bouncing around the minor leagues, but played 4 games with Anaheim in 06-07; he’s now retired
2007
David Clarkson (RW) 378 NHL games
Undrafted out of the OHL, he played 123 games in the AHL before making a permanent jump to the NHL in 07-08; he remains with the Devils
2009
Ryan Wilson (D) 187 NHL games
Undrafted out of the OHL, he only played 71 AHL games before making the jump to the NHL in 09-10; he remains with Colorado
2011
Matt Fraser (LW) 1 NHL game
Undrafted WHLer was signed by Dallas and got a call-up in his rookie season

CHL conclusions: the bulk of the players missed here are all regular NHLers (in some cases very good ones), with only Wall (and potentially Fraser) getting the cup of coffee treatment.  It’s only seven players over seven years and only three in the last five, so it’s very rare for an undrafted player to make the jump from the CHL to the NHL without a lengthy apprenticeship in the minors.  It’s interesting that five of these success stories are from the OHL and that nearly half are blueliners.

CIS (2)
The least likely route to the NHL, here’s the two success stories I could find post-lockout (Mathieu Darche would be one that predates this, or Bracken Kearns if I was categorizing things differently).
Joel Ward (RW) 314 NHL games
Played 209 AHL games before establishing himself as an NHLer in 08-09.
Darryl Boyce (C/LW) 84 NHL games
Debuted with Toronto in his rookie season (07-08), but didn’t start getting regular call-ups until 10-11.  Currently an UFA.

NCAA (56)
2006
Andy Greene (D, 39-9-22-31, NJ) – 347 NHL games through six seasons; going into the second season of a four-year deal
Rod Pelley (39-7-7-14, NJ) – 256 NHL games through six seasons; currently a UFA
Ryan Carter (39-19-16-35, Ana) – 254 NHL games through six seasons; signed a two-year, one-way deal with the Devils
Bill Thomas (41-27-23-50, Phx) – 87 NHL games through six seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Colorado
Tim Wallace (36-11-12-23, Pit) – 73 NHL games through six seasons; currently on a two-way deal with Carolina
Junior Lessard (45-32-31-63, Dal) – 2y NHL games through six seasons; currently playing in the LNAH
Jamie Hunt (D, 33-12-33-45, Wsh) – 1 NHL game through six seasons; he’s now retired
2007
Ryan Shannon (38-14-31-45, Ana) – 305 NHL games through six seasons; now in Switzerland
Darroll Powe (34-13-15-28, Phi) – 286 NHL games through five seasons; two years left on a three-year deal (now with Minnesota)
Teddy Purcell (40-16-27-43, TB) – 272 NHL games through five seasons; is signed through the next four years with Tampa
Chris Connor (38-17-12-29, Dal) – 147 NHL games through six seasons; he has a two-way deal with Phoenix
Mark Letestu (37-24-22-46, Pit) – 136 NHL games through five seasons; on the final year of a one-way deal with Columbus
Kevin Westgarth (33-8-16-24, LA) – 90 NHL games through five seasons; signed to a new two-year, one-way deal with LA
Derek Smith (D, 43-10-20-30, Ott) – 58 NHL games through five seasons; signed his first one-way deal (two years) with Calgary
Trevor Smith (38-21-22-43, NYI) – 23 NHL games through five seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Pittsburgh
Sean Collins (D, 37-9-19-28, Wsh) – 21 NHL games through five seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Rangers
Gabe Gauthier (38-15-24-39, LA) – 8 NHL games through five seasons; signed with Colorado in the ECHL
Kyle Greentree (39-21-21-42, Phi) – 4 NHL games through five seasons; currently a UFA
John Curry (G, 2.01, .928, Pit) – 4 NHL games through five seasons; currently a UFA
Sean Bentivoglio (37-16-30-46, NYI) – 1 NHL game through five seasons; current a UFA
Darcy Campbell (D, 39-4-20-24, Clb) – 1 NHL game through five seasons; now playing tier-2 hockey in Germany
2008
Jesse Winchester (40-8-29-37, Ott) – 233 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Jack Hillen (D, 41-6-31-37, NYI) – 230 NHL games through four seasons; signed a one-year, one-way deal with Washington
Davis Drewiske (D, 40-5-16-21, LA) – 106 NHL games through four seasons; in the final year of his one-way contract with the Kings
Mike Moore (D, 34-7-17-24, SJ) – 6 NHL games through four seasons; signed a one-year, two-way contract with Nashville
Peter Mannino (G, 2.26, .917, NYI) – 6 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Matt Climie (G, 2.15, .913, Dal) – 5 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Brock Trotter (24-13-18-31, Mtl) – 2 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Jeff Penner (35-5-7-12, Bos) – 2 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
2009
Matt Gilroy (D, 45-8-29-37, NYR) – 194 NHL games through three seasons; currently a UFA
Tyler Bozak (19-8-15-23, Tor) – 192 NHL games through three seasons; entering the final year of his contract
Dan Sexton (38-17-22-39, Ana) – 88 NHL games through three seasons; entering the final year of his contract (which is one-way)
Christian Hanson (37-16-15-31, Tor) – 42 NHL games through three seasons; signed a two-way deal with Boston
MacGregor Sharp (43-26-24-50, Ana) – 8 NHL games through three seasons; played in Italy last season
Evan Oberg (D, 43-7-20-27, Van) – 7 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Tampa
Brad Thiessen (G, 2.11, .931, Pit) – 5 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way contract with Pittsburgh
Corey Elkins (42-18-23-41, LA) – 3 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Anaheim
2010
Bobby Butler (39-29-24-53, Ott) – 92 NHL games through two seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with New Jersey
Nate Prosser (D, 39-4-24-28, Min) – 56 NHL games through two seasons; signed a new two-year, one-way contract with the Wild
Chris Tanev (D, 41-10-18-28, Van) – 54 NHL games through two seasons; in the final year of his ELC
Casey Wellman (36-23-22-45, Min) – 41 NHL games through two seasons; signed a two-way deal with Florida
Tommy Wingels (44-17-25-42, SJ) – 38 NHL games through two seasons, signed a two-year, one-way contract with the Sharks
Aaron Volpatti (37-15-17-32, Van) – 38 NHL games through two seasons; signed a two-way deal to stay with the Canucks
Erik Gustafsson (D, 39-3-29-32, Phi) – 33 NHL games through two seasons, completing the third year of his ELC
Ben Scrivens (G, 1.87, 0.934, Tor) – 12 NHL games through two seasons, not yet re-signed by the Leafs
Ben Holmstrom (39-9-14-23, Phi) – 7 NHL games through two seasons; on a one-year, two-way deal with the Flyers
Jarod Palmer (44-18-27-45, Min) – 6 NHL games through two seasons; remains with the Wild organisation (two-way deal)
Brayden Irwin (39-15-19-34, Tor) – 2 NHL games through two seasons; currently a free agent
2011
Matt Read (37-22-13-35, Phi) – 79 NHL games; he remains with the Flyers
Harry Zolnierczyk (30-16-15-31, Phi) – 37 NHL games; he remains with the Flyers on a two-way deal
Stephane Da Costa (33-14-31-45, Ott) – 22 NHL games through one season; remains with Ottawa on a two-way deal
Andy Miele (39-24-47-71, Phx) – 7 NHL games; he remains with the Phoenix organisation
Carter Camper (39-19-38-57, Bos) – 3 NHL games; remains with the Bruins organisation (two-way deal)
Mike Connolly (42-28-26-54, Col) – 2 NHL games; remains with Colorado on a two-way
Torey Krug (D, 38-12-22-34, Bos) – 2 NHL games; two more years remain of his ELC remain
Chay Genoway (D, 36-6-31-37, Min) – 1 NHL game; he remains with the Wild organisation (two-way)

Europe (22)
2006
Niklas Backstrom (G, SM-Liiga) 32-9-10, 1.68, .940 – has played 327 NHL games and is arguably the best goaltender on this list
Patrick Thoresen (SEL) 50-17-19-36 – played 106 NHL games; he’s entering his fourth season in the KHL
Patrick Fischer (NLA) 44-21-32-53 – played 27 NHL games in his only season; now retired
2007
Jonas Hiller (G, NLA) 28-16, 2.60, n/a – has played 250 NHL games and remains Anaheim’s starting goaltender
Erik Ersberg (G, SEL) 41GP, 2.39, .908 – played 69 NHL games over three seasons with LA; entering his third season in the KHL
Cory Murphy (D, SM-Liiga) 45-13-37-50 – played 91 NHL games over three seasons; entering his first season in the KHL
Jaroslav Hlinka (Cze) 46-19-38-57 (1.23) – played 63 NHL games in his only season; currently signed in the Czech Elite League
2008
Ville Leino (C, SM-Liiga) 55-28-49-77 – has played 220 NHL games over four seasons; signed long-term by Buffalo
Antti Niemi (G, SM-Liiga) 26-14-6, 2.35, .926 – he won a Stanley Cup with Chicago (2010) and has 170 NHL games to his credit; he is San Jose’s starting goaltender
Tim Stapleton (C/RW) 55-29-33-62 – undersized NCAA grad played two years in Finland before coming back to North America; he played 118 NHL games; he’s playing in the KHL this season
Anssi Salmela (D, SM-Liiga) 56-16-16-32 (0.57) – played 112 NHL games over three seasons; entering his second season in the KHL
Fabian Brunnstrom (SEL) 54-9-28-37 – played 104 NHL games over four seasons; signed with Frolunda
Per Ledin (SEL) – played 3 NHL games in his only season; continues to play for HV71
2009
Jonas Gustavsson (G, SEL) 42GP, 1.96, .932 – “The Monster” has played 107 NHL games over three seasons; signed on a one-way with Detroit
Mika Pyorala (SM-Liiga) 55-21-22-43 – played 36 NHL games in his only season; entering his first season in the KHL
Henrik Karlsson (G, SEL) 34GP, 2.45, .914 – has played 26 NHL games; he remains with Calgary
Alexander Salak (G, SM-Liiga) 20-20-9, 2.40, .923 – played 2 NHL games in his only season with the Florida organisation; signed by Farjestad
Johan Backlund (G, SEL) 49GP, 2.56, .907 – played 1 NHL game over three seasons in the Flyer organisation; entering his second season with Karpat
2010
Mats Zuccarello (SEL) 55-23-41-64 (1.16) – pint-sized Norwegian played 52 NHL games over two seasons; entering his first season in the KHL
Jussi Rynnas (G, SM-Liiga) 14-13-1, 2.71, .911 – has played 2 NHL games over two seasons with Toronto’s organisation; he has one more year left in his ELC
2011
Raphael Diaz (D, NLA) 45-12-27-39 (0.86) – has played 59 NHL games in his rookie season; he remains with Montreal
Iiro Tarkki (G, SM-Liiga) 20-20-14, 2.09, .924 – played 1 game with Anaheim’s organisation last season; entering his first season in the KHL

ECHL (9)
Alexandre Burrows (W, 522 NHL games)
Undrafted player from the QMJHL, he played 134 games in the ECHL before becoming an AHL regular in 04-05; he’s been an NHL regular since the the lockout
David Desharnais (C, 130 NHL games)
Undrafted player from the QMJHL, he spent one season (07-08) in the ECHL before becoming an AHL regular; he’s been an NHL regular with Montreal this past season.
Steve MacIntyre (LW, 90 NHL games)
The undrafted WHL pugilist spent 168 games in the ECHL (and another 158 in other minor leagues) before establishing himself in the AHL and then earning an NHL spot with Edmonton (he’s also played for Florida and Pittsburgh).
Chris Durno (LW, 43 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the Michigan Tech, he played 147 games in the ECHL before firmly establishing himself as an AHL player, seeing action with Colorado in parts of two seasons (08-09 and 09-10).  He’s currently a UFA after spending last season with Charlotte in the AHL.
Chris Minard (C/W, 40 NHL games)
Undrafted OHLer spent 174 games in the ECHL before establishing himself in AHL; his NHL games were split over three seasons with Pittsburgh and Edmonton (07-08 to 09-10).  He will play in the DEL (Germany) this season.
Pascal Pelletier (LW, 13 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the QMJHL, he spent 88 games in the ECHL before establishing himself as a regular AHLer.  He had cups of coffee with Boston and Chicago (07-08 and 08-09), but will suit up for his third season in the NLA (Switzerland) this season.
Matt Climie (G, 5 NHL games)
Undrafted out of Bemidji State, he spent one season (08-09) in the ECHL before moving up to the AHL.  His NHL games have been spread over three seasons (08-09 to 10-11) and split between Dallas and Phoenix.  He’s remains with Chicago (AHL) for the upcoming season.
Kurtis McLean (C, 4 NHL games)
Undrafted out of Norwich University, McLean spent the bulk of 05-06 in the ECHL before establishing himself in the AHL.  His cup of coffee came with the Islanders (08-09), but is now entering his fourth year in Europe (his second in the NLA).
Cedrick Desjardins (G, 2 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the QMJHL, he spent one and a half seasons in the ECHL before becoming an AHL regular; his NHL cup of coffee was with Tampa in 10-11.  He’s signed with Hamilton (AHL) for the upcoming season.

AHL (20)
Most players graduate from the AHL after a few years, but there are exceptions (and yes, I didn’t do this list chronologically as above because…er, just enjoy it).
Matt Carkner (D) 162 NHL games
Spent an eternity in the AHL before getting one game with San Jose (05-06), not joining the big leagues permanently until 09-10; he signed a three-year deal with the Islanders
Jeff Hoggan (W) 107 NHL games
College grad spent the better part of two years in the big league (05-06 and 06-07) before settling back into the AHL; he’s now retired
Keith Aucoin (C/RW) 102 NHL games
An undersized college grad who has yet to spend an entire season in the NHL; his first taste was with Carolina in 05-06; he’s signed on a two-way with Toronto
Grant Stevenson (C/RW) 47 NHL games
NCAA grad spent half a season with San Jose (05-06) before falling off the map; he’s a UFA
Jerome Samson (RW) 46 NHL games
QMJHLer spent three years in the AHL before becoming a regular call-up for Carolina; he remains with the Hurricanes
Geoff Platt (C/LW) 46 NHL games
Undersized OHLer spent time with Columbus and Anaheim over three seasons before leaving for Europe; he’s entering his fourth full season in the KHL
Mike Glumac (RW) 40 NHL
NCAA grad spent time in the ECHL and AHL before getting a chance with St. Louis (05-06 to 07-08); he’s beginning his third season in Germany
Martin St. Pierre (C/LW) 38 NHL games
Undersized OHL grad was able to work himself into a limited number of NHL games (beginning in 05-06); currently signed on a two-way with Chicago
Mark Cullen (C/LW) 38 NHL games
College grad has played nearly 600 games in the AHL, getting most of his limited NHL action with Chicago; he’s playing in the KHL this season
Ryan Vesce (C/RW) 18 NHL games
Undersized college grad bounced between the AHL and Europe before getting his games with San Jose; he’s playing Sweden this year
Stephen Gionta (C/W) 13 NHL games
The undersized forward was signed out of college he spent four full seasons in the AHL before getting his NHL cup of coffee and has 363 AHL games to his credit.  Signed his first one-way deal with New Jersey at age 28
Jared Ross (C/LW) 13 NHL games
Undersized NCAA went through all the minor leagues before getting time with Philadelphia; he begins his second season in Germany
Mike Iggulden (C/W) 12 NHL games
NCAA grad saw action with San Jose and Edmonton before going to Europe; he begins his second season in Sweden this year
Rob Collins (C/RW) 8 NHL games
Undrafted undersized college grad four years in the Islanders system before getting his moment in the league; has spent the last six seasons in Germany
Maxim Noreau (D) 6 NHL games
QMJHLer spent four years in Minnesota’s organisation before leaving for Switzerland
Charles Linglet (LW) 5 NHL games
Undrafted QMJHLer played 331 AHL games before getting his cup of coffee with Edmonton (09-10).  He’s entering his third season in the KHL
Bracken Kearns (C) 5 NHL games
CIS grad played over 400 games before getting a call-up from Florida last season; he’s signed a two-way with San Jose
Carsen Germyn (C/RW) 4 NHL games
Undersized WHLer had his cup of coffee with Calgary; he now plies his trade in Germany
Jesse Schultz (RW) 2 NHL games
Undrafted WHLer got his cup of coffee with Vancouver in 06-07; unable to land an AHL job last season, he’s playing in Italy this year
Greg Rallo (C) 1 NHL game
Played over 300 AHL games before getting his one call-up with Florida; he remains with the Panthers organisation

The Best of the Undrafted
The simplest way of defining the best boils down to games played and how established a player has become (given that, I’ve only included one player whose career started within the last two years).  With that in mind, here are the best along with what league brought them to the NHL.
Nicklas Backstrom (Europe) 327 NHL games
Jonas Hiller (Europe) 250 NHL games
Alexandre Burrows (ECHL) 522 NHL games
Dan Girardi (CHL) 442 NHL games
David Clarkson (CHL) 378 NHL games
Antti Niemi (Europe) 170 NHL games
Mark Giordano (CHL) 338 NHL games
Teddy Purcell (NCAA) 272 NHL games
Ville Leino (Europe) 220 NHL games
Chad Larose (CHL) 473 NHL games
Andy Greene (NCAA) 347 NHL games
Tyler Bozak (NCAA) 192 NHL games
Matt Read (NCAA) 79 NHL games

Conclusions
NCAA: 56
Europe: 22
AHL: 20
ECHL: 9
CHL: 7
CIS: 2
What’s clear is that the best players who slip through the cracks come from Europe or the CHL, although no one comes close to the deluge of NCAA players who filter into the league.  Some of the perceptible changes (fewer players from Europe and the CHL) represent better scouting in the NHL, but nothing can stem the tide from college.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

September 5, 2012
Categories: Free Agency, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 6 Comments

Senators News: September 4th

–Pierre Dorion talks about his views on scouting and on Stefan Noesen:

It [scouting] still comes down to having a really good group of scouts, whether it’s on the amateur side or the pro side. It’s still about putting good lists together and still having that gut feeling — I think this player will play (in the NHL) because of his hockey sense. Player Y will play because of his desire or character, or maybe Player Z will play because of his skating ability. Maybe he won’t score like he did in junior, but his skating ability will allow him to be a third- or fourth-line player. Those things haven’t really changed. I must have seen 10 scouts with iPads [at the Ivan Hlinka tournament], and I don’t think I saw any last year. So I think it’s just another direction teams are going. A guy who gets overlooked because we had three first-round picks a year ago is Stefan Noesen. He’s made really big strides. He’s the type of guy who plays the game the right way. He goes to the net, he gets dirty goals and can shoot the puck. He makes plays in the offensive zone. He competes in both ends of the rink. Where he was a year ago to where he was at the end of the year … he’s made huge progress.

All I can draw from this in regards to scouting is that Dorion likes a consensus of opinions when it comes to making his draft lists.

-Motivated by the Kyle Turris signing, Varada offers the following:

The only scenario in which I care if an owner is getting value for his money is one in which he intends to spend as much as he is allowed, and the value of his contracts will help the team compete against other cap spenders. If Turris ends up being worth, say $5MM, why would I, as a fan, care that the team has to spend that? When we talk about the fan experience of watching a hockey game, one factor–money–is abstract, and doesn’t really impact how entertaining the game is. The other–term–isn’t abstract because we watch these players for the years of their contract. It seems logical to me that we should have a greater investment in the quality of the product on the ice than in the owner getting value for his money. These things are related, of course, but less so when you have a team spending so little in any case. What should terrify fans more is term. If this 23 year old incurs an injury or mental block or simply fails to perform without the motivation of needing a contract for five more years, then it affects me as a fan. Simply put, I’m stunned that this management was willing to give out a contract of that length after such a short audition. Erik Karlsson only got two more years than Turris.

I don’t fully agree with Varada, as when a fan watches a game a player’s performance is frequently referenced to how much they earn (a low salaried player who delivers is a great bargain, a high salaried player who doesn’t deliver is a bad signing and needs to be moved).  Money gets brought up all the time by the media and fans (Varada’s view of Turris henceforth is going to be affected by his deal), so I think it does impact how fans watch the game.  It’s an interesting point nonetheless.  I’ll also quibble with one part of his “what if” scenarios for players on long-term deals–if they suffer a serious injury they became cap irrelevant as they get put on LTIR.  Long term injuries are much less frightening than a highly paid player who underperforms.

-Here’s my profile of Jason Spezza.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

September 4, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Player Profile: Jason Spezza

Jason Spezza, C, Contract: 7.0/15 (UFA) 1-2/01 (Johnston)
6’3, Shoots R, YOB 1983, Mississauga, Ont
2008-09 NHL Ott 82-32-41-73 (ppg 0.89) -14 79pim (1 fight) TOI 19:41 FO% 53.3
2009-10 NHL Ott 60-23-34-57 (ppg 0.95) Even 20pim TOI 19:03 FO% 50.5
2010-11 NHL Ott 62-21-36-57 (ppg 0.92) -7 28pim TOI 20:11 FO% 56.3
2011-12 NHL Ott 80-34-50-84 (ppg 1.05) +11 36pim TOI 19:55 FO% 53.5

The main piece of the Alexei Yashin trade, long gone are the days of Spezza butting heads with then-coach Jacques Martin for ice time.  Since the lockout Spezza has been the team’s uncontested #1 center and among the most productive players in the league.  While his name is never included in discussions of the best of the best, he’s an elite player who can’t be replaced in the lineup.

The disastrous 2010-11 season was one to forget for Spezza just like the rest of his teammates, even though his numbers didn’t drop dramatically.  Injury problems were a big part of his struggles (as he demonstrated after recovering in February, going 30-12-25-37 versus 32-9-11-20 prior too), but he was hardly the main problem for the team as they crashed and burned.

Last season was the first healthy one for Spezza since 09-10; he was on the positive side of the plus/minus ledger for the first time since 07-08, and he finished fourth in league scoring (yes, fourth with only 84 points), playing a big part of the team’s surprising run to a playoff spot.  The main criticism of Spezza throughout his carrer has been puck management and turnovers.  It has been written about so much that it’s nearly impossible to say anything new about it (as one can see from 2007 , 2008, 2010, etc).  There’s no question that he does turn over the puck by making risky plays, but I believe it is part of what makes him a creative player and that the good outweighs the bad.  Mistakes are easy to magnify and I think he has been getting better about his puck-management as he’s matured.

With Daniel Alfredsson nearing retirement, Spezza is the obvious choice to pick up his mantle.  He’s not the same kind of player, but I think (like most elite players) he’ll relish the challenge of taking it over.  In the upcoming season Spezza should score at a point-per-game pace if he can stay healthy (last year I predicted the same).

Here are some Spezza highlights along with him turning Sheldon Souray into a pylon.

September 4, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

Senators News: September 3rd

–Adam Proteau doesn’t like the idea of parity in the NHL and asks this question:

Why shouldn’t teams that have the most fans and interest and are the primary fillers of the league’s coffers also have at least a modicum of ability to benefit on the playing field for their success?

There are a number of answers to this but first let’s consider the logic of it: the implication is that money earned should form the basis for determining the outcomes.  If that’s the case, why not have the playoffs determined by the top-sixteen money earners?  Proteau doesn’t seem to understand that fan interest is not based on the profits of a team, but on a variety of factors that all boil down to historical success on the ice which ebbs and flows (just as Chicago or Pittsburgh).  To answer his question more directly: 1) by enabling big market teams to have a competitive advantage they will have more success on the ice, this will make smaller markets less attractive to free agents, less competitive, hurt their fanbase, hurt the competitive quality of the league, and ultimately damage the product (consider the tedious reality of the pre-lockout NHL); 2) if degrading the calibre of play isn’t enough of a problem, we can add that the most successful league in North America is the NFL, whose parity helps create one of the most fervent fanbase’s imaginable.  Proteau has heard the NFL argument before and offers this limp rejoinder:

Now, some of you will attempt to counter this argument by pointing to the NFL, which is the closest thing professional North American sports has to complete parity. I will counter that counter by pointing to (a) the NFL’s gargantuan TV deal that goes a long ways toward making all owners happy; and (b) its non-guaranteed contracts

It never seems to occur to Proteau that the gargantuan TV deals he’s talking about are that big because of the appeal parity engenders.  Fans like the uncertainty of outcomes.  Proteau thinks that the NFL always been this way, but there was a time where professional football was not the king of sports in America (not surprisingly, that was before giant TV revenue and before parity)–the competitive balance is what creates popularity.  Non-guaranteed contracts are an unrelated straw man.   Another way to understand how flawed this idea is to think about MLB (formerly the #1 sport in the US) and consider how far it has fallen.  Baseball has an increasingly older fanbase with a narrowing appeal (restricted to big markets), while the NFL simply gets bigger and bigger and bigger.  Why Proteau (and others) want to emulate a failing model is beyond me.

-Here’s my look at ECHL success stories post lockout, which continues my look at where diamonds in the rough are found in the NHL (having already looked at college and Europe).

-For a detailed preview of the upcoming SM-Liiga season check out Tony Piscotta‘s very detailed article.  His comments on Sakari Salminen suggest that his NHL potential is limited (“he is a bit light and his game may be more suited for European hockey“), which runs against my hunch that a team might make him an offer.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

September 3, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

ECHL Success Stories Post-Lockout

Following in the footsteps of my look at the success of European and college free agents in the NHL, I thought I’d take a look at undrafted players who made their way through the ECHL ranks to reach the highest level.  Like the other articles I’ve focussed on the post-lockout NHL because of the different parameters in which players are viewed (particularly undersized players).  I have ignored individuals who only had a cup of coffee in the ECHL–my focus is on those who played at least the bulk of a season in that league.  I’ve also excluded Rich Peverley, whose only full season in the ECHL was during the lockout (04-05).

David Desharnais (C, 130 NHL games)
Undrafted player from the QMJHL, he spent one season (07-08) in the ECHL before becoming an AHL regular; he’s been an NHL regular with Montreal this past season.
Steve MacIntyre (LW, 90 NHL games)
The undrafted WHL pugilist spent 168 games in the ECHL (and another 158 in other minor leagues) before establishing himself in the AHL and then earning an NHL spot with Edmonton (he’s also played for Florida and Pittsburgh).
Chris Durno (LW, 43 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the Michigan Tech, he played 147 games in the ECHL before firmly establishing himself as an AHL player, seeing action with Colorado in parts of two seasons (08-09 and 09-10).  He’s currently a UFA after spending last season with Charlotte in the AHL.
Chris Minard (C/W, 40 NHL games)
Undrafted OHLer spent 174 games in the ECHL before establishing himself in AHL; his NHL games were split over three seasons with Pittsburgh and Edmonton (07-08 to 09-10).  He will play in the DEL (Germany) this season.
Pascal Pelletier (LW, 13 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the QMJHL, he spent 88 games in the ECHL before establishing himself as a regular AHLer.  He had cups of coffee with Boston and Chicago (07-08 and 08-09), but will suit up for his third season in the NLA (Switzerland) this season.
Matt Climie (G, 5 NHL games)
Undrafted out of Bemidji State, he spent one season (08-09) in the ECHL before moving up to the AHL.  His NHL games have been spread over three seasons (08-09 to 10-11) and split between Dallas and Phoenix.  He’s remains with Chicago (AHL) for the upcoming season.
Kurtis McLean (C, 4 NHL games)
Undrafted out of Norwich University, McLean spent the bulk of 05-06 in the ECHL before establishing himself in the AHL.  His cup of coffee came with the Islanders (08-09), but is now entering his fourth year in Europe (his second in the NLA).
Cedrick Desjardins (G, 2 NHL games)
Undrafted out of the QMJHL, he spent one and a half seasons in the ECHL before becoming an AHL regular; his NHL cup of coffee was with Tampa in 10-11.  He’s signed with Hamilton (AHL) for the upcoming season.

That’s eight players over six seasons, only one of whom (Desharnais) has become an NHL regular.  Five of the players hail from the CHL, while three are NCAA grads; interestingly, there are no defensemen on the list.  It’s not surprising that such a tiny percentage of players who go this route make the NHL permanently, but being able to climb the ladder is a more common than I expected.  Regardless, as with all my previous looks at undrafted players, this emphasizes how rarely NHL scouts miss NHL talent post-lockout (and when they do miss a player they are almost always undersized).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

September 1, 2012
Categories: Free Agency, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Senators News: August 31st

-Reactions to the Kyle Turris deal have varied, but I thought James offered the most salient comment about the extension:

If things were to go South and Turris were to end up a 3rd line centre, he’d be making 500K more than our beloved Chris Kelly currently is and for just one more year….except Turris is 23 to Kelly’s 31.

–Megan Robinson talked to Sens prospect Chris Driedger, who talks about this upcoming season where he’ll his first chance to be the starting goaltender for the Calgary Hitman:

Right now it’s just prep, getting back into game mode and working towards a big season. You know, during that stretch [last fall when he struggled], I went back to Winnipeg and just thought about things and I realized that if I keep playing like that, I’m not going to get drafted at all, so I tried to pick it up and I kind of got more hopeful. It was great for my confidence [getting drafted],  just knowing that Ottawa wanted to me and to take me in the third was pretty huge. It’s given me a new motivation to do better and make it further because the WHL cannot be the end of the road for me. It’s nice for me because it’s not going to be me constantly worrying about ice time with [Brandon] Glover like last year, it’s just a new focus on the game. [Mack] Shields is going to be a really good back-up and I think he’s going to be a really good goalie so it’s nice to have him. It’s going to be cool mentoring him and showing him what I can. I just wanted to make sure that I could capitalize on the opportunity because nothing is worse than having the job and losing it when you’re expected to take it. So, I made sure I was mentally and physically ready to take this job. It’s one of the best groups I’ve seen in front of me in a while. I think we’re going to have a lot of good veterans and the young guys coming up are going to contribute a lot too, so I think it’s going to be nothing but good things this year.

-Here are my thoughts on NHL play-by-play and colour commentators.

-The Elmira (ECHL) roster remains pretty vague at this stage, as the Sens have yet to sign their fifth goaltender and could theoretically send a platoon of prospects to join the roster.  There are currently six players signed (three forwards and three defensemen): Matt Campanale (DL, 66-7-16-23, 6 AHL games to his credit, including one with Binghamton last season), Jimmy Martin (DR, 70-7-27-34, entering his sophomore season as a pro), Kyle Bushee (DL, 57-4-15-19, 13 AHL games to his credit; spent most of last year with Wheeling), Dustin Gazley (LW/RW, 72-25-60-85, lead Elmira in scoring last season, he’s entering his sophomore year as a pro), Chaz Johnson (RW, 64-20-15-35, 70 AHL games to his credit, including a half season with Binghamton in 08-09), and Jordan Pietrus (RW, 65-13-27-40, entering his third year in the ECHL).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 31, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

Thoughts on Colour and Play-by-Play Coverage in the NHL

It’s virtually impossible to watch or listen to a game of hockey without being affected by the broadcasters.  With so much exposure, fans inevitably have strong opinions about who is or isn’t good at what they do.  It goes without saying that rink side reporters and in-game interviews remain a complete waste of time (I’ve often thought they should pick a random interview, loop it, and in post-production simply replace the jersey and face of the player as needed).  My exposure to local broadcasting has primarily been to the Sens, so my comments on the local side are confined to Ottawa while I’ll also look at the wider coverage provided by the CBC, TSN, Sportsnet, and NBC.

I’m less interested in whether someone likes or dislikes something than in why they have their opinion, so in this exercise the question becomes what service are broadcasters supposed to provide?  My expectation is that the play-by-play does more than just describe the action–it should also heighten the entertainment of my viewing enjoyment.  Colour commentators, on the other hand, should primarily break down plays and provide insights on the players.  They can add some excitement as well, but I find those who focus on cheerleading more annoying than entertaining.

With that preamble here are my thoughts on the broadcasters I’m regularly exposed too (pbp=play-by-play, cc=colour commentator), with a simple Yes or No in terms of whether I enjoy listening to them followed by an explanation:

CBC
Dean Brown (pbp, Yes) – I’ve listened to Dean ever since I moved to Ottawa in 1996, and while he’s not the best play-by-play man in the business he knows his stuff and has entertaining goal calls
Jim Hughson (pbp, No) – I’ve been listening to him for a very long time (back to his early days at TSN); he isn’t terrible–he knows the players and disguises his bias–but he may as well be describing paint dry
Bob Cole (pbp, No) – oh baby, oh golly!  I’ve been exposed to Bob for decades and look forward to the day he finally retires; he’s biased, overly fond of particular words (no one has ever said the word “again” more than he has), struggles to identify players, habitually states the time of the game despite it appearing on-screen, and he’s often dismissive of the colour commentators (post Harry Neale); the one thing I think he does well is to create energy with his voice
Garry Galley (cc, Yes) – losing him on The Team 1200 has left a void on that radio station that no one has filled; he offers great insight and is among the best colour guys on TV
Greg Millen (cc, No) – he’s inconsistent and doesn’t cover his biases
Glenn Healy (cc, No) – currently rumoured to be on his way out at the CBC, he’s possibly the most arrogant and combative guy on Hockey Night in Canada; he has strong player biases and provides very little insight
Craig Simpson (cc, No) – he’s essentially Healy but less entertaining; he’s biased and doesn’t offer much insight

TSN
Gord Miller (pbp, Yes) – among the most professional of his colleagues (lack of bias etc) and provides a lot of energy with his calls
Chris Cuthbert (pbp, Yes) – another broadcaster I remember from TSN’s early days; he knows his stuff
Ray Ferraro (cc, Yes) – I wish I was able to watch more of Ray’s broadcasts, because along with Galley he’s my favourite colour man; he provides excellent insight on the game and has no obvious bias
Mike Johnson (cc, No) – while I’ve started to see some improvement in his work, he doesn’t offer enough insight or meaningful chatter

Sportsnet
Dean Brown (pbp, Yes) – see above
Denis Potvin (cc, No) – I have mixed feelings on him, but thus far he’s been too much of a homer; he does (occasionally) offer interesting insight

NBC
Mike Emrick (pbp, Yes) – I don’t hear Emrick a lot, but he does a good job at adding energy to the broadcast
Pierre McGuire (cc, No) – formerly on TSN, his hyperbolic commentary mixed with his heavy bias creates a complete mess; he constantly references his dated time in the league and any previous associations he has

The Team 1200 (radio)
Dean Brown (pbp, Yes) – see above
Dave Schreiber (pbp, Yes) – while Dave is a complete homer, he does such a good job of adding energy with his calls I can forgive him
Gord Wilson (cc, No) – a fixture in all respects for Senators coverage, I’ve never been a fan; he’s a selective homer (in terms of players he likes and thus won’t criticise), he doesn’t break down plays and offers virtually no insight

The experience in studio (before games and between periods) is a mixed bag and outside of TSN a complete waste of time.  Mike Milbury, whose opinions aren’t needed anyway, inflicts pain on both NBC and CBC (although the word is he is gone from the CBC).  Sportsnet has a platoon of commentators who offer no meaningful insight (Doug MacLean might be the worst–he seems to think yelling his opinions makes them valid), while on the radio Jason York is clueless (his once frequent soliloquy’s on how great Keith Ballard is come to mind).  I was not a fan of Marc Crawford on TSN, but otherwise they have the best studio group on TV.

To summate, if I could choose my broadcaster it would be the TSN package, particularly with Pierre McGuire and Marc Crawford out of the picture.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 30, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 4 Comments

Senators News: August 29th

-The big news of the day is that the Sens have signed Kyle Turris to a five year extension with a 3.5 million cap hit.  This is a contract based on potential, as Turris‘ has yet to crest the 30-point plateau in three NHL seasons (he spent one full year in the AHL).  It’s a reasonable risk for the third overall pick in the 2007 draft; if it doesn’t work out the amount isn’t so high that he couldn’t be moved.  The other thing it confirms is that the Sens don’t see Mika Zibanejad playing center in the NHL or that someone like Stephane Da Costa could fill that role.

–Allan Muir doesn’t like Ottawa’s off season moves (giving them a “D” grade) because…they let Zenon Konopka and Matt Carkner walk!  Yikes!  Muir also makes the oft-debunked assertion that the Sens are in trouble of being below the cap floor.  Nichols deconstructs the player-by-player criticisms provided, but to me the article smells of lazy journalism–the comments are straight out of Don Brennan’s columns where undoubtedly his ideas originate (especially here).

–Patrick Wiercioch talks about improving his strength and conditioning this summer:

Working with Schwarzy [Chris Schwartz] and retooling, it’s been huge. It’s a considerable amount of weight to put on over the course of the summer … but it’s been progressive. It’s been one or two pounds a week or every two weeks. It hasn’t been a jump from one period or another. It’s been slow, it’s been progressive, it’s been a process since the end of May. That’s something (the Senators) wanted me to do, to put in the time, put in the effort and I think it’s been really good. Both Kyle and I have really benefited from working with Schwarzy in the weight room and off the ice, too.

He also talked about the injury that derailed his sophomore season in Binghamton:

[It was] a pretty serious fracture in the back of my neck with a lot of internal bleeding that was cause for a lot of panic and concern. It was a while [before it improved]. When you’re living it, you don’t really think about how serious it was. But once you can move a step past it and reflect on it, and you see how serious it was and what could have happened from it … there’s definitely things that you struggle with daily. You’re still at that point where you feel lucky to be alive. Hopefully, something like this doesn’t ever happen to me again, yet alone anyone else. I think you always appreciate the game because it’s fun and it’s something that you love to do. But when something like that happens and it could be taken away from you that quickly, then you realize how fragile you are.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 29, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 2 Comments

Player Profile: Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson, D, Contract: 1.3/12 (RFA) Drafted 1-15/08 (Murray)
5’11, Shoots R, YOB 1990, Lannaskede, Swe
2008-09 SEL Frolunda 45-5-5-10 (ppg 0.22) +3 10pim
2009-10  NHL Ottawa 60-5-21-26 (ppg 0.43) -5 24pim TOI 20:06
2009-10 AHL Binghamton 12-0-11-11 (ppg 0.91) Even 22pim
2010-11 NHL Ottawa 75-13-32-45 (ppg 0.60) -30 50pim TOI 23:30
2011-12 NHL Ottawa 81-19-59-78 (ppg 0.96) +16 42pim TOI 25:19

The 2008 NHL Entry Draft was the first real draft for Bryan Murray.  He was the GM for the 2007 picks, but all the scouting work was done under John Muckler’s regime who was fired just beforehand.  The Senators had the 18th overall pick, but Anders Forsberg and Tim Murray were high on Erik Karlsson, so the Sens made a trade with Nashville to grab him with the 15th overall pick (the Preds received picks they used to select with Chet Pickard, who is now in Sweden, and Taylor Beck, who just completed his rookie season in the AHL).

As expected Karlsson needed another year of seasoning before coming to the NHL, so he spent one more year with Frolunda.  Karlsson‘s expectations for himself were much more moderate than those among the fanbase, but he made the team out of training camp, leading to Jared Cowen being returned to the WHL and Christoph Schubert being put on re-entry waivers (claimed by Atlanta).  Karlsson was demoted to Binghamton in late October and stayed there for a month.  Recalled at the end of November, he spent the rest of the season in the NHL.  Other than hurting his shoulder trying to throw an open-ice hit on Ryan Kesler in February, Karlsson enjoyed a strong rookie season including a great playoff against Pittsburgh (6-1-5-6).

The following season expectations for Karlsson were high.  There was no question that Cory Clouton was going to play him a ton.  For awhile he actually lead the team in scoring, although questions remained about his defensive play.  At season’s end he was first on the team in powerplay points (one ahead of Sergei Gonchar, who played fewer games), second in overall points, and just lost out to Chris Phillips for the team lead in the minus category (he also played in the NHL all-star game).

Karlsson‘s meteoric development took a leap forward under Paul MacLean.  A Norris Trophy winning season, he finished second on the team in points (again, being well ahead of my 50 projected points, just outside the top-ten in NHL scoring, and the most by a blueliner since Niklas Lidstrom in 05-06), tied for the second best plus/minus on the team (behind Filip Kuba), and was the engine for the team’s explosive offense.  Assuming the new CBA doesn’t include a new crackdown on obstruction and increased powerplays, I think Karlsson‘s production will slip, particularly as there’s no one other than an aging Gonchar for team’s to target on the Sens blueline; somewhere in the 55-60 range would be reasonable.

Here’s every point Karlsson accumulated this year; a great defensive play; and his brief Norris Trophy speech

August 28, 2012
Categories: Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

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