-For those of you who have spent the summer wondering why I didn’t include my point projections for Sens players in my regular season review, your wait is over as I’ve added them into the article.  My two biggest errors from last summer were my point projections for Bobby Butler and my expectation that Jared Cowen would need time in Binghamton.  Overall however, my prognostication was solid.

-Here are my profiles of Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips, and Chris Neil.

–Peter Raaymakers looks at the Sens blueline and I recommend reading it in full.  Here are my thoughts:

Other than Methot and Cowen, no blueliner is capable of playing the kind of ice time Karlsson carries each game.

I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment and I think Raaymakers is right that Paul MacLean will certainly aim for a Methot–Karlsson pairing.  If Methot can’t handle the role and Cowen suffers from a sophomore slump, it will hurt Karlsson a great deal as he’ll have to change his game for a weaker partner.

Gonchar will certainly be used on the powerplay, and he may be moved down the lineup at even strength to decrease the amount of ice time he plays–pretty much the opposite of Cowen, who will be used on the penalty kill, and may be bumped up in the depth chart since he can definitely gobble up minutes. Cowen may also see a bit of powerplay time this season, depending on whether or not Paul MacLean wants to use a forward on the blue line with the man advantage.

I have little doubt that Gonchar and Cowen will start the season together.  Given the limited offensive talent on the blueline Gonchar and Karlsson will get the majority of the powerplay minutes.  It will be interesting to see if MacLean went with a forward option on the second unit, although I think Alfredsson‘s days of walking the blueline are over and I’m not sure who among the forwards could play that role.

Lundin‘s not exactly an offensive powerhouse, but he looks like a capable puck-mover, and Phillips has a tendency to get trapped in his own zone if his partner isn’t able to move the puck out (or forwards aren’t willing to get deep in the zone and carry the puck out on their own). Against fast, offensive teams, Lundin may draw in to the lineup to allow MacLean’s system to work most effectively.

If Lundin has a good first pass it must be the only good pass he makes, as he’s never had more than 11 assists in an NHL season.  I agree wholeheartedly that Phillips needs someone to bail him out and Lundin‘s skating ability should help.  I think Raaymakers’ distinction between playing a fast versus a physical team is a good one for where Borowiecki (or Gryba) could slide into the lineup.

The article goes on to exclude Ceci, Wiercioch, Benoit, and Eckford from the lineup and I believe that’s likely.  What interests me is that he excludes Gryba who, prior to Borowiecki‘s ascendance last year, was the next in line to add a physical element to the blueline.  What’s concerning in looking at Ottawa’s blueline is how few players offer anything offensively.

–Corey Pronman provides his list of the Sens top-ten prospect:
1. Mika Zibanejad – could be a top line forward
2. Cody Ceci – either a top two or top four blueliner
3. Jakob Silfverberg – could be an above-average second liner
4. Mark Stone – could be an above-average second liner
5. Shane Prince – could be a good second liner
6. Stephane Da Costa – could be an average second liner
7. Stefan Noesen – could be a decent second liner
8. Patrick Wiercioch – could be a top four blueliner
9. Matt Puempel – could be an average second liner
10. Andre Petersson – could be a below-average second liner
The Next Five
11. Mike Hoffman – may push for an NHL spot
12. Robin Lehner – he’s “way ahead of the curve”
13. Jean-Gabriel Pageau – no specific projection given
14. Mark Borowiecki – on the cusp of NHL time
15. Derek Grant – no specific projection
Sleeper
Robbie Baillargeon – no specific projection

Pronman joins the horde of Ottawa locals who love Shane Prince and while I could quibble with the positioning of the other players that’s the one selection that puzzles me the most.  Notably low in his rankings is Robin Lehner, but Pronman isn’t fond of goaltenders as prospects.  I have no idea how Pronman distinguishes between “average” and “decent” (Noesen).  He writes:

This [Ottawa] is a ridiculously deep system. Players like Jarrod Maidens, Ben Blood, and Fredrik Claesson, who would all be in just about any team’s top 15 prospects, end up off Ottawa’s top 15. They lack the multiple star prospects outside of Mika Zibanejad, but there are still so many quality youngsters in this organization.

Pronman’s sentiment is pretty common–the Sens have stockpiled a great deal of depth, but like most teams they have a limited number of top end players.

–Stu Hackel takes a look at the NHL’s interest in cutting back on diving and obstruction, spending most of his time writing about the former.  I don’t think diving is a big problem in the league and the emphasis on it seems like a lot of wasted effort given the larger problems the NHL has with its officiating.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 27, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

-The Sens signed 2012 first-round pick Cody Ceci to his ELC today.

-NHL.com has posted a series of articles on the Sens, beginning with Arpon Basu‘s ranking the team’s prospects:
1. Mika Zibanejad
2. Jakob Silfverberg
3. Robin Lehner
4. Cody Ceci
5. Mark Stone
6. Stefan Noesen
7. Matt Puempel
8. Mark Borowiecki
9. Patrick Wiercioch
10. Shane Prince
Many of the organisational comments included by Basu are either very broad or ones we’ve heard before, but it’s worth including Pierre Dorion’s comments on Mark Stone: “Mark has taken it upon himself to get better. He’s been in Ottawa a lot to work on his skating – which still needs improvement – and his strength. But what he has in terms of hockey sense, his shot, his ability to make plays and his offensive instincts are things you can’t teach.”  The comment about his strength is one I haven’t heard before and is yet another sign he will be in Binghamton for at least the coming season.  I don’t think Shane Prince belongs in the top-ten, but as with any prospect time with tell.

–Corey Masisak tries to guess what the Sens upcoming lineup will be:

Michalek-Spezza-Silfverberg
Latendresse-Turris-Alfredsson
Greening-O’Brien-Zibanejad
Condra-Smith-Neil
Regin

Karlsson-Methot
Gonchar-Cowen
Lundin-Phillips
Borowiecki

I have a few problems with Masisak’s speculation, although other than Zibanejad he has all the players I expect to be on the NHL roster listed (Daugavins should be included).  Peter Regin will not be an extra forward, nor will Jim O’Brien play on the third line; otherwise the forward lines are up in the air.

–Basu wonders if last season’s success will be a springboard for the Sens.  Bryan Murray thinks so:

It very definitely should give us a bit of a springboard this year. Our finish and our performance in the playoffs last season gave us some confidence that we’re going in the right direction. With Lundin and Methot in our top six, with the continued growth of Cowen and with Karlsson being what he is, age-wise those four guys should improve and should help us improve defensively.

I expect Murray to be optimistic, but given that neither blueline acquisition adds offence and both Karlsson and Cowen could have down years (the former because he’s unlikely to repeat his success, the latter could suffer from the sophomore slump).  Given that possibility, the engine that moves the puck to the forwards could start to break down.

-Here’s my profile of Erik Condra

–ESPN‘s Tim Boughton, Paul Grant, and David Walton assess the moves in NHL free agency.  Walton liked Alexander Semin (Carolina), Boughton liked Teemu Selanne (Anaheim), and Grant liked Jason Garrison (Vancouver).  I don’t see Selanne as a true UFA since he would only play for Anaheim (Boughton’s other choice was RFA Tuukka Rask).  All three thought Parise and Suter (Minnesota) were given too much money and term, but I just can’t see any other signing as coming close to the impact those two will have on the Wild.

-The Swedish Elite League will not sign any locked out NHL players (should there be a lockout).

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 23, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: 1 Comment

–Robin Lehner talked about his journey as a player:

It’s a marathon, it’s not a sprint. (The Senators) are doing what they think is best for me. They’re trying to develop me as good as they want. I’m an asset to them and they want me to do as well as possible. I’ve got to trust them, too. They’ve got lots of hockey experience in this organization. I’m only 21 — I don’t know as much. I’m just eager to play and eager to show myself. I’ve got to deserve the opportunity first and that’s what I’m (trying to prove) now in the summer and heading to camp, to get them to want me to play here. That was just the thing for me, with the game in Boston and a few other games I played up here, to show myself and show other people that I can play at this level. I know I’ve got a long way to go and some technical things I need to work on, and I have to get more stable and be a little bit more calm in the net. People can look at it that way. This is a business and, of course, they’re going to do things money wise for the organization. That’s not my job. I have one job, to stop pucks and to try to stop as many as I can. That’s what it all comes down to in the end. You’ve got to believe it’s realistic (to make the team). I’m trying to prepare myself as well as I can to be able to get a spot. You never know. You go for it and you see what happens. I’m looking forward to it and I’m excited. Now, when I look back at it … it was a lot of good learning experiences. I think I developed as a goalie and I think I’ve developed and matured a lot as a (person). I’m starting to really know what it’s all about. Last year, in some ways, it didn’t go as we wanted, but it was a really good experience for us, too. Sometimes, that happens. Up here in Ottawa, it felt really good when I got the chance. The main thing for me is (having) the feeling that I got to be a better goalie. And I think I can stop more pucks this season.

The two comments that attract my attention are his mention of the team’s money concerns, which I take to be a reflection of Ben Bishop‘s one-way deal, and his comment about how things felt better in Ottawa, which is clearly where he would like to be.  Unfortunately for Lehner, I don’t think it matters if he’s the second coming of Jacques Plante because the organisation is not going to send Bishop to the minors.

-With next to nothing to write about articles are appearing talking about Jared Cowen and Jakob Silfverberg playing in Binghamton if there is a lockout.  This isn’t news to my mind–both players are signed and the organisation will decide where they play–but as I don’t believe the season is going to be effected by the CBA it’s largely a moot point anyway.

–Kyle Turris talked about the upcoming season:

It’s been great working with Schwarzy on things we want to get better at over the summer — getting stronger and putting on some weight. I feel really good. We’re all confident in our abilities as a team. It’s a lot of work to jell and combine together as a team over the course of a season. That’s why we had so much success over the course of last season and into the playoffs. We’re just going to have to do that again this year and everyone’s excited to get back at it. I think it’s exciting [playing with Latendresse]. It’s going to be fun. He’s a big, skilled player and he’s obviously a good player. It’s going to be a good addition for us and fun to have him as a part of our team. I enjoy every minute of it (here). It’s fun to go out and support different charities and learn more about them. I really enjoy going to those events and spending time in the city.

It will be interesting to see if Turris does add the strength he needs to his frame, since presumably that’s been something Phoenix was urging him to do while he was with their organisation.

-Every once and awhile I see an article like this one from Adam Proteau and wonder about the kind of defaults reporters use to fill space.  Proteau argues that a second team in Toronto will create the pressure necessary to make the Maple Leafs more interested in winning.  I have two of problems with this: 1) the assumption that the lack of a second team in the area means there’s no pressure on the Maple Leafs to win (a popular sentiment, but not something that’s demonstrable), 2) that the NHL will allow another team in Toronto.  Unless Proteau can establish the former, his speculation is irrelevant.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 22, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment

-I’ve been away for a week and most of the hockey news has surrounded the tedious CBA negotiations and its attendant hysteria.  Through that noise some Sens news has come down the pipe

–Peter Regin has been cleared for contact and considers himself healthy and fully recovered.

-Going back to August 10th, Tim Murray was on The Team 1200 and Nichols transcribed his comments.  He discusses Sens prospect Stefan Noesen:

We recognize certainly his ability and his potential. We have high expectations for him. I suspect that he’s going to be a top-six or seven forward. I suspect that he’s going to play on our power play someday. I suspect that he is going to be a hard guy to play against and be a very competitive guy so our expectations are high. As far as the casual fan, I’m not quite sure what they think or know from him. I think that there are fans out there that follow (the Senators) quite closely and follow the OHL quite closely and know that he’s a quite good prospect. The rules dictate that Stefan makes our team or goes back to junior but for the most part, and I know it’s a cliche but it is true, we’ll let him decide that. He’ll either knock our socks off or go back to junior and that’s basically the two choices that he has. He can’t come into camp and have a solid camp. We’ll be happy with that but it won’t put him on the hockey club.

There’s nothing new here other than setting the development ceiling the team see’s for Noesen.  Murray then commented on Mika Zibanejad playing in North American this upcoming season:

That’s our plan and that’s the thought obviously. We know things can change. There could be a family issue. There are multiple reasons why he would go back next year but that’s not what we want. The plan is for him to either be here eithere in Ottawa or in Binghamton. As I say, I shouldn’t be so definitive in an article like that because we know that it could change but the idea is for him to be here. He wants to be here. We want him here. Is there something that could pop up in the future to change that? Sure, but I don’t foresee that.

The possibility that Zibanejad might return to Sweden at all surprises me, but I still believe he’ll play for either Ottawa or Binghamton this year.  Murray then commented on Bobby Butler‘s buyout:

It was mostly the numbers game. It was partly the way he played. It was partly, I guess, the way that he prepared. I know I hear it all. I hear it’s a long season in Bingo and I hear a lot of things from different people and from different sources, but that came into it. I just think it was easy to do because of the numbers. It was basically $400,000 over two years. The cap hit doesn’t mean anything because of the position that we’re in. I just think the number and I have to say I guess a little bit the way that he played and prepared for last season sure (contributed to his buyout). To me Bobby was a success. He had a two-way contract. He came out of college hockey a little more mature athlete than a kid out of junior. He went down to Binghamton and he played some games (in Ottawa). He played in Binghamton and he scored some big goals down there. Maybe the team doesn’t win a (Calder) Championship without him, so I think his first year was a success. He gets a one-way (contract) because of the way that the CBA was worded and the amount of games that he has to play in the NHL for us to retain his rights and a whole bunch of different reasons that he gets the one-way deal. I think he kind of on the ice deserved the one-way deal. We had to give it to him or lose him anyway. I think maybe he just got caught up in: we win a championship, he played a lot, it was a short summer and he just… it all came at him too quickly and he didn’t know how to prepare for the following year. Now I think he can take a step back and certainly, I think you can learn from that. I assume that he’s having a better summer this year and is being more prepared. He signed a two-way (contract) with Jersey and now he has to earn his NHL games again and we’ll see where he’s at.

There’s nothing surprising about the comments.  Murray then talked about signing college free agents in general:

I think that they’re a good try. They are on a two-way. You have to give them a signing bonus. I think that when you can get a free player like that… I just don’t know what you guys expect or the fans expect when (we announce the signing of a collegiate free agent). For the most part, (Jesse (Winchester), Bobby (Butler) at times in their time with us in Ottawa, we’ve been very pleased with the production that we got from the money that we put out.

Murray touches on the primary problem college free agents face–hype (as I concluded not long ago).  The expectations for undrafted NCAA stars are often higher than is warranted.  The only other items of note was Murray commenting on Matt Puempel‘s improvements as a player and that the team is essentially done in free agency.

–Adnan wonders what fans can expect in terms of production from Erik Karlsson and compares him to a number of other top offensive blueliners, but I think the most important comment is this one, “most of those players did this [continuing high levels of production] in the 1980s where scoring goals was a lot easier.”  If Adnan said “from the 1967 expansion into the early 1990s” he would be absolutely correct about when scoring was high in the NHL.  This makes the comparisons very tricky, as the trend in the NHL is less scoring (declining every single year).

–The Hockey News has been slowly grinding out their predictions for the 2012-13 season and have picked the Senators to finish eighth in the Eastern Conference:

The Sens surprised many (THN included) when they made the playoffs last season. However, now that offense-minded dynamo and reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson has blossomed into a superstar, they won’t be able to sneak up on opponents. The good news is that with goaltending depth (Craig Anderson, Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner), a buttressed blueline (with the addition of Marc Methot) and promising youngsters including Kyle Turris, Jakob Silfverberg and Mika Zibanejad up front, they don’t need stealth to in order to win.

I don’t know why THN doesn’t fully embrace being wrong about the Sens last year–it happened to most predictions.  There’s no need to qualify the error by saying the Sens were “sneaky”.  I actually think the Sens are likely to finish on the outside looking in (an opinion shared by Nichols), and I have problems both with decreased offensive capacity of Ottawa’s blueline, the ability of the team to reproduce their offensive production overall, and I my opinion of the Anderson/Bishop tandem is “wait and see”.

-For those who’ve followed the Dany Heatley saga after being traded from Ottawa, he’s filled a lawsuit against his former agent

–Stu Hackel writes about the NHL’s deplorable officiating and notes that the uninspiring Colin Campbell has admitted the officiating standards have slipped considerably since the post-lockout era began.  One can only hope there’s a slight shift towards allowing skill to return to the forefront of the game.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

August 20, 2012
Categories: Binghamton Senators, Ottawa Senators . . Author: Eye on the Sens . Comments: Leave a comment