One of the mantras we hear from the Sens’ new ownership and GM (directly and through the media) is patience. They want to assess things. Abstractly this is a good thing–you don’t want to rush decisions. However, it’s beginning to feel like this might be beyond patience and simply reflect indecisiveness. Let’s look at some examples.
Pierre Dorion Everyone knew he needed to go–from his disastrous trades and signings, to his mixed draft record, to his absurd comments in the media about expectations (Cup challengers in 2018 to the rebuild being over every year from 2019 onwards). Instead of firing him, Andlauer did nothing until the NHL nuked him from orbit.
D. J. Smith I have no idea if Smith could find success in another situation, but nothing about his prior performance suggested he could take the Sens roster and lead it anywhere. Rather than making a change, he was allowed to coach the team to a limp 11-15-0 record with no signs of improvement before getting replaced by the long retired Jacques Martin.
Goaltending It didn’t take a crystal ball to guess that the Korpisalo-Forsberg tandem was going to struggle–I called it out when it happened. I’m not sure I expected them to be this bad, but Korpisalo‘s play with a better defensive team in front of him is close to his career worst season in Columbus (2021-22). Forsberg, on the other hand, is having his career worst performance. Ottawa has talent in the minors, but Sogaard is not ready for prime time (he’s only 23), despite a career year in Belleville (the BSens have overplayed him). What should have happened ASAP was moving one of the vets (Forsberg because his contract is easier to move) and gamble on someone else while waiting until the off-season to buyout Korpisalo. Instead, the two have been left to rot and lose what little value they have.
The Roster I have more sympathy here because Dorion created cap problems going into the season. That said, when the writing was on the wall in December a lot of moves could have been made (Kubalik‘s value has only gone down as the season has gone on, for example). There’s also been a logjam of veterans in the AHL all year long that has been ignored–it’s not fair to the vets or the players looking for ice time.
I have to think the incessant Chychrun rumours are coming from the team (not just because Ian Mendes won’t stop talking about it, but because we’re seeing the speculation outside the market as well). No one seems to want to make the comparison between he and Chabot for the future (I took a brief look in September, with Chabot picking up yet one more injury since then while Chychrun has been healthy for the first time in years). The only reason to trade Chychrun over Chabot is salary, but I’d much rather move an injury-prone, 8.0 cap hit. Maybe Staios is playing 4D-chess, but there’s no evidence for that thus far.
It doesn’t help that the local media is channeling their inner Don Cherry and demanding more toughness on the team (MacEwen‘s demotion and Kastelic‘s horrendous season having no impact on them). It boggles the mind that in 2024 there are still people who think ‘good in the corners’ (without tangible outcomes being attached to the term) are being seriously bandied about.
As feared going into this season (cf), goaltending has been abysmal. Forsberg has been slightly better, but neither he nor Korpisalo have been able to help the team and while Sogaard has finally found consistency at the AHL-level (.920 in 21 games), we haven’t seen signs he’s ready to do that in the NHL. With the Sens against the cap, there’s no simple solution to this problem until the offseason. My guess is they will move Korpisalo either via trade or buyout–there’s no other option given the term left on his deal (buyout seems most likely, as a trade would require packaging other assets as well as retaining salary). Forsberg they can afford to keep as a backup (one more year at 2.75).
With the Sens firmly as a seller going into the trade deadline, Tarasenko is on the market and that’s ably gone through by The Athletic (Shayna Goldman & Ian Mendes). They propose a number of teams: Edmonton – I don’t think he’d agree to go, although it would be a good fit (a player would likely come back for salary reasons, even if Ottawa agrees to eat some of Tarasenko’s, along with picks)–I don’t see this happening Carolina – Salary isn’t an issue for them (picks coming back)–probability of him accepting this is low but not impossible Rangers – I’m positive he’d be happy to return, with a salary & pick coming back–if New York wants him I think this is his most likely destination Dallas – Salary might be an issue, with a player/pick coming back–the odds are the same as Carolina Minnesota – They need him more than the rest of these teams & I’d expect picks coming back, but I don’t think he’d agree to the move Boston – Certainly a player/pick coming back and I think he’d agree, but I’m not sure how interested they’d be
My guess is Tarasenko wants to go back to the Rangers and if they want him back, that’s his destination. Barring that it’s Boston with an outside chance of Dallas or Carolina. I imagine a 2nd-round pick is the highest the Sens will get for him, along with either a disappointing asset (ala Sebrango) or a bottom-six player on an expiring contract (someone along the lines of Gauthier–see below).
The Sens nearly won the award for the worst prospect pool in the NHL, finishing just above the floor at 31st on Scott Wheeler’s list. I do sometimes quibble with prospect lists like this, but the Sens’ obvious lack of top-end talent (not just in the AHL, but those drafted and not signed) makes it a deserved listing. Here’s Wheeler’s list (those who are signed are in bold): 1. Tyler Kleven – Envisions him as a bottom-pair PKer; his AHL numbers are fine (35-3-12-15) and leaving him in Belleville was the right call–his ceiling might be a touch higher, but it’s a fair assessment 2. Mads Sogaard – Sees NHL potential and I agree (he’s far too young to give up on given his relatively limited issues) 3. Tyler Boucher – Wheeler is very uncertain about him (other than he was picked far too high); his AHL numbers are horrendous (21-2-3-5) but he is (again!) coming off injury so at 21 we can’t call him a fail just yet 4. Zack Ostapchuk – Sees him with potential as a grinder who can contribute; his AHL numbers are low (47-11-6-17), but given his age & his role in Belleville not concerning–I agree with the ceiling 5. Roby Jarventie – Wheeler is high on him and so am I; there’s lot’s of refinement needed, but he’s a natural goal scorer which the Sens lack; injuries are his biggest issues (AHL numbers are good: 22-9-11-20) 6. Leevi Merilainen – Wheeler is coming around to my feelings when he was picked (because I like the pick); at his age I expect inconsistency and he’s had that in the AHL (.898) while being excellent in the ECHL (.926; playing the same number of games in each) 7. Stephen Halliday – Another prospect he’s changed his mind on thinking there might be a road to him being a bottom-sixer, but more probably following the road of Jack Dugan (5-148/17 Vgk): a good minor league player 8. Maxence Guenette – Yet another prospect he’s changed his mind about, but he doesn’t make the connection I did that he’s essentially Max Lajoie 2.0 (similar career path)–excellent in the AHL and can do spot duty in the NHL 9. Oskar Pettersson – Sees him as a hard-nosed fourth-liner (the type of player the Sens prioritized under Trent Mann), which is what he’s looked like in the AHL thus far (7-1-1-2) 10. Jorian Donovan – Wheeler didn’t like him when drafted but his performance has forced an upgrade to someone who gets NHL call-ups; this is a bit lower than where I’d peg him, but we do need to see him at the AHL-level to properly judge 11. Hoyt Stanley – He’s fond of him, but it’s all projection rather than production at this point 12. Theo Wallberg – Sees NHL upside without going into why (vaguely his defensive play, which it has to be given his numbers) 13. Kevin Reidler – The Sens have good success picking goaltenders (not necessarily starters, but ones who can play in the NHL) and this is another with a good shot at being that 14. Tomas Hamara – Liked him when picked, but is more cautious now & feels the issues are largely mental 15. Filip Nordberg – Is unsure if he can be anything more than a capable AHL-player and there’s a lot about him that reminds me of Andreas Englund in 2014 (cf; Englund is a funny case of when a coach believes in you, you can play in the NHL–after being a unremarkable AHLer for six seasons, Todd McLellan inserted him into LA’s lineup, but I doubt he’s going to stay in the league long term)
I don’t have too many disagreements with Wheeler, but it ought to be clear that there’s very little high end talent and most of what there is comes in the form of goaltenders.
We’ve followed along for quite some time the story of the 2018 WJC in terms of their impact on the Sens vise vie Formenton and something legal has finally occurred as he (along with four other players: Carter Hart (Phi), Dillon Dube (Cgy), Michael McLeod (NJ), and Cal Foote (NJ)) have been arrested. Arrests don’t equate to guilt (ask Jian Ghomeshi, or the case that was just dismissed against Milan Lucic), but it does mean unless he’s acquitted he’s a lost asset for the Sens. Even if he’s found innocent the probability remains the organization won’t keep him. No one from the outside knows what happened, so we will simply have to wait and see what happens at trial. What’s interesting to me is that, at least in Ottawa, there seems to be a general presumption of guilt and I’m curious to see if the public in the other markets reacts the same way. Dube and Foote had already gone on personal leave prior to this announcement, clearly in anticipation of it.
As a nice footnote to dumb Pierre Dorion trades, last year’s acquisition Julien Gauthier has been waived by the Islanders after continuing his unremarkable play with them (27-5-4-9).
This snapshot has the BSens at the 34-game mark (once again the schedule made a 10-game segment awkward to do & the post was delayed due to illness–they’ve since lost to Utica and Laval). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
The BSens winning percentage started to crawl forward (7th in their conference). In this set of games they went 6-3-0 (4-2-0 in the division). Special teams: PP 16.4% (+1.8), PK 78.3% (-0.4)–the horrible NHL PK is being replicated at the AHL-level; GF 25, GA 22, which in terms of per-game is 2.77 (-0.48) and 2.44 (-1.06); the BSens are the second lowest scoring team in their conference, but not by much.
Game by Game Cleveland 1-2 (Saulnier/Daoust still injured; Sebrango, Smejkal returned; Larsson NHL; Merilainen back to ECHL) Wilkes-Barre 1-5 (Crookshank/Smejkal to NHL) Toronto 4-3 (Heatherington to Spengler) Laval 4-1 (M. Boucher back to ECHL; Heatherington Spengler) Toronto 3-2 (no change) Manitoba 2-1 (Heatherington/Saulnier back) Manitoba 4-0 (Smejkal/Crookshank back; Fizer to ECHL; Lukosevicius released) Toronto 0-8 (Sogaard NHL; Merilainen recalled from the ECHL; Jarventie, McPhee injury) Toronto 6-2 (Imama suspended; McPhee returns)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The upswing for McPhee doesn’t mean very much, I’m simply noting it because it’s not something I thought he could do. As for Reinhardt, this isn’t concerning unless it continues, as historically he’s always had offensive droughts. Highmore is more troubling and I’m not clear what the issue is. It’s nice to see Sokolov rounding into form after a career worst start.
What Larsson is doing is unsustainable–he’s had a long pro career and putting up points has never been part of it. Thomson is suffering because he’s been pulled from the PP. Otherwise we’re simply seeing Guenette return to more expected production and that Sebrango hasn’t found a new gear to change his fate.
The song remains the same–Mandolese goes through hot and cold streaks while Merilainen slowly continues to grow. How much having Justin Peters promoted to the NHL impacts things remains uncertain.
This post is late–unfortunately I was ill last week so I didn’t get this out on time. In general, given the talent limitations of the club I think the performance is about as expected.
The Sens have not hit the halfway point of the season, but 38-games in (squeaking past the worst team in the league this afternoon), with no significant help coming on the goaltending front (the LTIR they get from Forsberg just makes room for Pinto), Ottawa is going to miss the playoffs again and I think it’s a fitting final note to the Pierre Dorion regime (the same that had been prematurely declaring the end of the rebuild since 2019). I’d argue Dorion was damaging the organization back from when he simply managed the draft and some blame has to be given to Bryan Murry and Eugene Melnyk for buying into his bullshit. You reap what you sow and Dorion had no idea how to build a winning team despite seeing examples year after year after year (as I went over exhaustively in the link above).
Unfortunately for new GM Steve Staios (how many former NHL players are GMs now? Verbeek, Sweeney, Adams, Conroy, Kekalainen, Nill, Yzerman, Blake, Guerin, Fitzgerald, Drury, Briere, Grier, Francis, and MacLellan–16 if my counting is correct), he has a team that’s too good to rebuild (with a fanbase exasperated by the Dorion rebuild), but not good enough to compete. He has assets he can play with, but not a lot given the teams problems.
I went through the problems about a month ago, so a quick recap: Goaltending: Korpisalo and Forsberg have been about equally bad, but we’ve had ex-Sens goaltenders post up fantastic numbers behind good defensive clubs (Filip Gustavsson and Cam Talbot). Clearly, it’s not just the goaltending (and shoutout to Joey Daccord, yet another discarded Sens ‘tender who has found success)–how goaltending coach Zak Bierk still has a job is mystery–you can see the erratic results in the minors as well. Depth: at forward and on defense is not good enough. There’s a long list of players who should not be in the lineup and there’s very little in the system that’s NHL ready to plug those holes.
What can they do? Move bodies. A lot of bodies. Here’s who I would move and why (cap number included), keeping in mind that realistically the Sens (even if they wanted to) could not trade that many players before the deadline so I’ve highlighted them in probability (green absolutely will go, orange is 50-50, and red is my wishful thinking):
Tarasenko (5.0) – he’s on everyone’s list because of his expiring contract, although that will reduce what you can get for him (the Sens will have to take a player back for cap reasons) Joseph (2.95/26) – Ian Mendes has bought into the hype again (what’s the definition of insanity?), but you sell high and he can’t get higher than now (the Sens problem is his contract–term/cost) Kubalik (2.5) – he’s 28, on an affordable expiring deal, and you have a prospect who can fill his roll in Jarventie (if not this season, perhaps next), so get something for him Brannstrom (2.0) – nothing against him, but there’s no space for his role on the team assuming we’re keeping both Chabot and Chychrun (which I would); his age (24) and decent season should increase what you can get for him Hamonic (1.1/25) – the wheels have fallen off (just like they did in Vancouver); he really shouldn’t have been retained [After I posted this The Athletic listed him as the biggest underperformer on the team, cf, along with Kubalik above] Kastelic (0.835/25) – there are plenty of suckers for truculence in the league–he’s averaging less TOI than Smejkal when he’s in the lineup–time to go!) MacEwen (0.775/26) – no one plays less than he does–if you don’t trade him you’ll have to buy him out (which I would do if no one will take him); alternatively you permanently bury him in Belleville Kelly (0.7625) – he’s on the verge of a career year (over 82 games a whole 15-points) and he’s cheap, but he’s not so good in his role that you can’t replace him with a player with more upside
You’ll note one name I constantly deride is not on this list: JBD. Why? It may be a fluke, but he hasn’t been the trainwreck that he was in the AHL (perhaps the better structure in the NHL makes it easier for him). He’s so cheap (0.805) that he’s harmless to keep if you are shifting out a large number of players (as I’m suggesting). So for now I am holding back on my policy of firing Bernard-Docker straight into orbit.
There are two other players to discuss: Giroux, not because the team wouldn’t want him, but if he wants out. As a player-directed event, we can’t know if that’s an issue, so we’ll leave it be. The other is Zub, largely because of the cap hit and term–I think he’s overpaid (4.6), but it’s not egregious and Sens get cap relief next season, so I doubt he moves.
What about the pipeline Staios is inheriting? How are things in Belleville? On an individual basis it’s a mixed bag. There are some odd things happening (no idea what coach Bell is thinking replacing Lassi Thomson on the PP with Jacob Larsson, who has the offensive instincts of a dead whale). Among the prospects Crookshank and Jarventie are the only ones who have been consistent (although the latter is currently hurt); Sokolov is slowly getting over the worst start of his career; Guenette had a fantastic start but has hit a wall (five game pointless streak and 4 over his last 12); Thomson‘s numbers have cratered (at least in part due to the PP change); T. Boucher and Ostapchuk are finding their feet, and so on. Kleven is the one guy, along with the aforementioned at the top, who might be able to make the transition, but I’d leave him in Belleville for as long as you can to get him the reps as a pro. He’s not a dominant AHLer (yet at least), so he’s going to be a depth player in the NHL if he comes up.
As for the older prospects Dorion gambled on, Smejkal has a lot of components you like, but he’s slow, doesn’t use his size, and doesn’t generate enough offense to make the leap (at 27, he has to be ready now). For the younger Matinpalo (25), defensively he’s got the tools and like all Finnish players the physical side isn’t an issue. The concern for him was production and keeping in mind he isn’t on the PP I’m not convinced there’s enough there. I think he was intimidated during his NHL audition so fans did not get a chance to see him play his game (which is quite good defensively). In a dead season after some moves, I’d be content to see if he can handle being a 6 on the blueline, but whether he has a long term future or not remains in doubt. None of the other assorted veteran players taken off the scrapheap have stood out (Highmore and Currie are underperforming, while Pilon has been average, and there’s still no reason for Imama to be there at all).
What about prospects not currently in the org? Let’s start with those signed: Toure, 20, RD (OHL 25-6-6-12) – undrafted; an improvement over last year (as you’d expect from an older player), but unclear how well his talent will translate Hamara (3-87/22), 19, LD (OHL 33-1-11-12) – improvement over last year, but like Toure, I don’t know how well it translates and since he’s not a big guy you want to see numbers Donovan (5-136/22), 19, LD (OHL 36-9-21-30) – about the same pace as last year, but it’s good to see him maintain high numbers Pettersson (3-72/22), 19, RW (SHL 22-0-1-1) – roughly the same production in the men’s league as last year, which is a bit disappointing (but not yet a big deal yet) The bottom three all played in the WJC (absent Russia, making it feel like the 84′ Olympics–does it really matter?), but only Hamara had good results there. It also feels odd that all three OHLers have been traded, but trivial matters aside, nothing that’s happened staples any of these guys as significant NHLers in the near future (if at all).
How about the unsigned? Halliday (4-104/22), 21, CL (NCAA 21-6-15-21) – similar to last year Wallberg (6-168/22), 20, DL (NCAA 21-1-12-13) – these are good numbers given his unremarkable USHL season prior Nordberg (2-64/22), 19, LD (USHL 24-1-10-11) – so-so numbers in a fairly weak junior league O’Neill (5-143/22), 19, RW (NCAA 14-2-2-4) – coming off pretty terrible USHL numbers last year, this isn’t too bad Reidler (5-151/22), 19, GL (USHL .902) – he’s played well Dyck (7-206/22), 19, CL (NCAA 18-0-7-7) – switched schools and the results have improved Nikitin (7-207/23), 19, GL (BCHL .847) – getting caved-in by tier-2 (which is still a big step-up from the Kazakh league) Van Tassell (7-215/23), 19, CR (NCAA 12-0-1-1) – unimpressive numbers from an unimpressive USHLer Stanley (4-108/23), 18, RD (NCAA 14-1-2-3) – fine for a rookie blueliner Andonovski (5-140/23), 18, LD (OHL 41-3-17-20) – solid improvement over his prior season Beckner (7-204/23), 18, CL (USHL 29-8-14-22) – similar to his BCHL production
What’s clear here is that, other than Halliday, there’s nothing coming soon and that it’s unlikely what’s coming is anything other than potential depth. There’s always a chance for a surprise, but none of the numbers suggest it.
As for picks, Dorion has peddled away a great many of them. This is what the Sens have the next year (with me assuming they will get Boston’s first-rounder instead of Detroit’s while keeping their own this year and probably next): 2024: 1st (2; Bos); 2nd, 4th (3; Det/TB), 5th, 6th 2025: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th 2026: 3rd, 5th, 6th 7th This means the Sens have to be in contention by 2026 because of all the capital jettisoned. Staios has to hit homeruns in this (2024) draft, since there’s nothing else on the board prepared for him. The team also has to go back to drafting for talent rather than focusing on grit. Can he do that with Dorion’s scouting team? I have no idea.
Where does this leave the Sens? They have excellent pieces: arguably a top-four (when healthy) and four top forwards in their prime (along with Giroux)–arguably six if Pinto/Greig continue developing, but we have to be careful with assumptions like that. The strange thing for Staios is that it’s what’s surrounding the talent that’s been neglected. He needs to shore up the bottom-six and bottom-pairing and restock the pool. That doesn’t mean drafting for a fourth-line center, that means drafting talented players who can be put in that role for while pressuring the person above them. That’s success–a team with talent throughout. The good thing about that is none of this requires blockbuster trades. It needs good drafting and smart moves and Staios can do both then the team isn’t far from turning this around–just not in time for this season.
How time flies as the BSens are now at the 22-game mark (here are my comments on the first 10; the schedule made another 10-game segment awkward to do). We’ll start with a snapshot of the standings:
While the BSens winning percentage has barely moved, they’ve technically moved up the standings slightly (although their position via winning percentage is unchanged). The most recent segment: 5-4-3; going 4-2-0 in the division; PP 14.6% (-2.4%); PK 78.7% (-1.8%); GF 39 (+12); GA 42 (+12)–because this covers two extra games we’d expect more goals for/against, but in terms of per-game the team has gone from 2.7 to 3.25 and 3.0 to 3.5 (so both have increased unrelated to the extra games).
Game by Game 2-1 Cleveland (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 4-6 Laval (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango; in Ottawa: Sogaard, Larsson) 2-3 Manitoba (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 1-8 Lehigh (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier; Sebrango) 3-4 (OT) Hartford (Kleven, Larsson returned; Supryka released from PTO; PTO Orrin Centazzo; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-4 Bridgeport (injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 6-3 Utica (Jarventie, Sogaard returned; Merilainen to ECHL; injured: Fizer, T. Boucher, Daoust, Saulnier, McPhee, Reinhardt; Sebrango) 2-3 Rochester (no changes) 4-2 Rochester (no changes) 5-2 Laval (Highmore, Reinhardt, Fizer back; Sogaard injured; Centazzo released; Sebrango loaned to ECHL) 5-2 Grand Rapids (Smejkal to Ottawa; Merilainen recalled) 3-4 (OT) Grand Rapids (Sogaard back from injury)
Individual Performances I’ve marked those significantly above/below their career averages (cf, where appropriate); @=veteran, *=rookie, #AHL-contract, %=PTO, italics=drafted player. The NHL tallies are year-to-date rather than segment-related.
The biggest surprise are Sokolov‘s struggles. I think he’ll snap out of it as he’s well below his career average (0.79 coming into the season, he’s at just 0.54 right now). The other notable is veteran signee Currie, whose struggles are to the point where I have to assume the team wants to move him (there were signs of a decline when he was in KHL). On the positive side, Crookshank is starting to look like the form he had when he broke into the league and M. Boucher is enjoying the most success he’s had at this level as a pro (although that’s probably not sustainable). One trivial note I want to make is that Betts has tripled his prior production last season with the BSens (however anemic that still remains).
Defense Guenette 12-2-7-9 (22-3-14-17) Thomson 12-2-3-5 (22-3-5-8) *Matinpalo 12-1-2-3 (17-2-2-4) NHL 4-0-0-0 TOI 7:00 @Heatherington 12-1-2-3 (21-2-2-4) *Kleven 6-1-1-2 (10-1-3-4) NHL 5-0-1-1 11:01 @Larsson 9-0-2-2 (18-2-2-4) #MacKinnon 9-0-2-2 (15-0-3-3) JBD 2-0-0-0NHL 18-1-3-4 TOI 16:50 %Supryka 3-0-0-0 (7-0-0-0) [no longer on the roster] Sebrango [ECHL 4-1-1-2]
Guenette has managed to maintain his hot pace and is the primary offensive driver from the blueline. Thomson is gradually moving back to his usual pace production (0.30->0.41, with 0.59 being the norm), but other than perhaps Kleven the team (as predicted) struggles to generate offense from the back end. It also looks like it will be safe to remove JBD from this list next time as he seems locked in Ottawa.
I mentioned prior to the season that Mandolese is consistently inconsistent and this persists. Merilainen experienced his first bumps as an AHL-pro, but that shouldn’t cause concern and in the ECHL he’s been by far the best goaltender. Sogaard has remained excellent and seems to be back on form after an inconsistent 2022-23.
The BSens are still figuring out their powerplay as only Guenette and Sokolov are producing consistently. Special teams in general have been poor and I feel like are among the indicators of coaching impact, but there’s still time for things to solidify and improve.
eyeonthesens 