Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft

With the advent of the NHL salary cap after the 2004-05 lockout, it became paramount for all organisations to invest in their scouting operations and draft well.  It has become harder for teams to buy their way out of trouble or plug holes with expensive free agent talent.  Draft prediction has become a cottage industry for many hockey fans, but the wide variety of sources are not created equal and few of those who provide their opinions will reflect on their subsequent accuracy.  It’s my purpose here to collate the best sources and provide insight into who will be selected in this year’s upcoming NHL entry draft.

This is my third year predicting the draft (beginning with the now defunct Hockey Herald back in 2010).  That year I picked 72% of the entire class (well ahead of other sources), while in 2011 I picked 70% (still well ahead of my nearest source, which was ISS).  What follows is a continuation of the same analysis.

My method is to take the sum of reliable sources and produce an aggregate number (so player X is ranked 15, 24, and 32, these numbers are averaged).  This gives me a broad overview of where players will be slotted.  I then engage in further comparative analysis—for instance, if player X has a higher aggregate score, but player Y has the higher median score, the latter is given the higher position.  Precise predictions (player X at pick #29) are much more difficult (I was at 32% last year, which topped my sources).  The first round remains the easiest to predict in terms of who will be picked, if not where.

Determining my Sources of Data

While a wide variety of media and bloggers produce draft predictions (especially for the first round), not all are created equal.  My preference is the scouting community itself and those sources that they rely on.  For that purpose, The International Scouting Service (ISS), Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report (RLR), and Central Scouting (CS) are particularly weighty.  Central Scouting is the NHL’s scouting service, while ISS and RLR are independent scouting services used extensively within the NHL.  I also give TSN’s Bob McKenzie predictions a lot of weight, as his rankings prove an excellent barometer for draft results.

Rounding out my sources this year are The Hockey News (THN),  Future Considerations (FC), Hockey Prospects (HP), and McKeen’s (McK).  They provide extensive predictions and are put together by knowledgeable hockey people.

It has to be noted that both ISS and CS have inherent comparative problems when it comes to comparison because Central Scouting does not create a master list—players are divided into North American and European skaters, as well as being separated into goalie and skater categories.  ISS separates their goaltenders into a separate ranking (these at least can be loosely incorporated by taking the average number of the round they are slotted into).  Because of these drawbacks I load up with the additional data provided by other sources.

Finally, it’s worth noting that there is a difference between assessing who the best player is versus who a team will draft.  Some publications give weight to the latter, while other sources do not.  My purpose here is to slot players where they will be picked rather than assessing who is the best.

Notes

Acronyms: ISS (International Scouting Service), CS (Central Scouting), RLR (Red Line Report), HP (Hockey Prospect), TSN (The Sports Network), THN (The Hockey News), FC (Future Considerations), and McKeen’s (McK).

Ranking depth: CS 378 (212 skaters and 35 goalies in North America along with 120 skaters and 11 goalies in Europe), RLR 312, ISS 220 (200 skaters and 20 goaltenders), HP 210, FC 210, McK 120, THN 100, and TSN’s Bob McKenzie 60.

The analysis itself: the aggregate is the total score of the player divided by the number of sources ranking that player (this score does not include the CS ranking given the issues detailed above).  When I say a player beats another “head-to-head” or on aggregate I mean that he has a better median score.

A final comment: the most obvious struggle for accurate scouting assessment remains Europeans, who are underrepresented in lists (barely 16% this year) for the obvious reason that it’s more expensive to cover Europe and the great variety of leagues (in terms of level of competition and style of play).  A smaller issue is the hard-on the scouting community has for players on the US National Development Team.  It seems to occur to no one that part of the reason the team performs so well at international events is, unlike their competition, they play together all year.  That advantage inflates opinions about the players and so that you can find virtually every draft eligible player on that team on someone’s list.

Ottawa and the Draft

The Sens have the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  If there are no trades and my list is exactly the same as Ottawa’s  (it won’t be, but play along) the Sens would draft: Zemgus Girgensons, Robbie Baillargeon, Troy Bourke, Seth Griffith, Daniel Altshuller, Dominic Volek and Grant Besse.  That would be 6 forwards and a goalie, which is a very unlikely situation.  The vast majority of mock drafts have the Sens picking Hampus Lindholm (who  at #16 would be available following my analysis) or Olli Maatta (who would not be available going at #14).  The Sens also brought Andrei Vasilevski (#24), Malcolm Subban (#30), Daniel Altshuller (#136), and Francois Brassard (#176) to Ottawa and they could select any of the goaltenders as things play out below.

First Round

1. Nail Yakupov (1.14) – the consensus #1 pick with only HP ranking him anywhere else (at #2)
2. Filip Forsberg (3.28) – in a statistical tie with Ryan Murray, but beats him head-to-head
3. Ryan Murray (D) (3.28) – only Bob McKenzie see’s him higher than this slot (at #2)
4. Alex Galchenyuk (5.14) – the only other player to get a #1 ranking (HP); ISS thinks the least of him ranking him #14
5. Griffin Reinhart (D) (6.42) – ranked as high as #4 (HP/TSN) and as low (RLR) as #9
6. Matt Dumba (D) (7.42) – in a statistical tie with Grigorenko and loses on aggregate, but I think the Russian factor tilts in his favour
7. Mikhail Grigorenko (7.42) – ranked as high as #3 (THN) or as low (TSN/HP) as #12
8. Morgan Rielly (D) (7.57) – ranked between #6 (RLR/THN) and #9 (FC/HP)
9. Teuvo Teravainen (8.00) – placed as high as #5 (McK) and as low as #12 (THN); he just edges out Trouba on aggregate as well as overall score
10. Jacob Trouba (D) (8.14) – he’s as high as #5 (ISS) and as low as #11 (RLR)
11. Cody Ceci (D) (12.71) – a big drop off in score from the top-ten players, no one has him listed higher than #10 (ISS/THN); RLR has the low score (#19)
12. Radek Faksa (14.00) – has a narrow range with the high #11 (TSN/THN) and the low #16 (RLR/ISS/McK)
13. Derrick Pouliot (D) (15.00) – rated quite low by ISS (#22), HP has his high at #10
14. Olli Maatta (D) (17.29) – the better sources have him higher (#10 TSN), but HP (#26) and FC (#27) push his score lower; when throwing out Girgensons outlier (HP) Maatta beats him easily on aggregate
15. Zemgus Girgensons (16.00) – his score is boosted by HP’s ridiculous ranking (#5!); ISS has the low at #24
16. Hampus Lindholm (D) (19.57) – his score hurt by an absurd rating from HP (#44), he easily beats Gaunce and Koekkoek head-to-head (the high is McK at #11)
17. Brendan Gaunce (19.14) – the first player with a second round placement (RLR #34), ISS has him highest at #11
18. Slater Koekkoek (D) (19.57) – despite a wide range (#11 for ISS, #23 for THN), all sources have him selected in the first round
19. Sebastien Collberg (21.00) – has a lower score than Finn, but he beats him on aggregate; highest at #12 (FC) and lowest from another bizarre HP ranking (#43)
20. Matthew Finn (D) (20.29) – highest rank at #14 (RLR) while his lowest is #26 (FC)
21. Thomas Wilson (22.14) – ranges from #17 (ISS) to #30 (FC); he is the last player to receive only first round selections from all sources
22. Pontus Aberg (23.14) – hurt by TSN’s #37; RLR has him highest at #15
23. Tomas Hertl (24.00) – ranges from TSN’s #19 to ISS’ #32
24. Andrei Vasilevski (G) (24.42) – by far the highest ranked goaltender, only ISS see’s him picked in the second round (RLR ranks him highest at #10)
25. Brady Skjei (D) (26.14) – FC pushes him into the second round (#37), but most have him as a first-rounder with #21 the high (McK)
26. Scott Laughton (29.43) – RLR is a fan (#17), but several sources have him in the second round (#42 is the low with THN)
27. Colton Sissons (30.14) – ranges from FC’s #16 to THN’s #40
28. Phillip Di Giuseppe (30.29) – HP loves him (#17), but five see him as an early second rounder (#36 from FC is the low)
29. Dalton Thrower (D) (31.43) – ranges from #23 (HP) to #39 (TSN)
30. Malcolm Subban (G) (38.28) – he does not have the next best overall score, but he’s hurt badly by RLR (#69) which masks his four first round selections, the highest #24 (McK)

Honourable mentions: six players had better overall scores than Subban (Stefan Matteau, Oscar Dansk, Ludvig Bystrom, Nicholas Kerdiles, Henrik Samuelsson, and Martin Frk).  Given the disinclination for teams to draft goaltenders in the first round, it’s entirely possible one of these players may go before Subban.  In terms of the number of players who also had first round selections they go in this order (a total of 15 players):
Three (3): Bystrom (ISS, FC, THN), Matteau (McK, THN, TSN), Mike Matheson (McK, THN, TSN)
Two (2): Samuelsson (RLR, ISS), Kerdiles (ISS, FC)
One (10): Dansk (FC), Jordan Schmaltz (RLR), Ville Pokka (THN), Tim Bozon (HP), Scott Kosmachuk (RLR), Tanner Pearson (TSN), Patrick Sieloff (HP), Damon Severson (RLR), Adam Pelech (ISS), and anomalously Jake Dotchin (HP with another odd decision)

Second Round

31. Ludvig Bystrom (D) (34.43) – it’s very close between he and Matteau (who has a better overall score), but he wins the head-to-head comparison; THN has him highest (#19) and HP the lowest (#52)
32. Stefan Matteau (32.57) – a very narrow range beginning at #23 (TSN) other than an RLR ‘s ranking (#48)
33. Oscar Dansk (G) (35.57) – only FC (#25) has him in the first round (THN has the low of #44)
34. Henrik Samuelsson (36.29) – ranks behind Kerdiles on overall score, but beats him head-to-head; RLR has him highest (#22) while THN has him in the back half of the second round (#50)
35. Nicholas Kerdiles (35.00) – boosted by a very high scores from ISS (#15) and FC (#17); HP has the low at #50
36. Mike Matheson (D) (37.86) – the last player with three first round selections (lead by TSN’s #26); HP has the low at #56
37. Martin Frk (37.00) – the highest ranked player without a first round placement (HP has the high at #31, THN the low at #45)
38. Jordan Schmaltz (D) (37.86) – a statistical tie with Matheson, he’s much closer in comparison to Jankowski below; RLR loves him (#23) while FC has the low (#47)
39. Mark Jankowski (D) (39.29) – tied with Pokka below, the difference between he, Pokka, and Schmaltz is negligible; RLR gives him the high (#28) while ISS provides the low (#55)
40. Ville Pokka (D) (39.29) – given that Europeans are often misranked it’s tempting to put him ahead of Schmaltz, but based on the comparison he slots here; THN has the high (#28) while FC has the low (#55)
41. Tim Bozon (40.14) – HP has him as a first-rounder (#21), but he’s strongly slotted in the second (TSN with the low at #50)
42. Scott Kosmachuk (43.00) – RLR puts him in the first round (#25), but colour him a second-rounder (FC with the low at #57)
43. Tanner Pearson (45.57) – the first player with a third-round ranking (ISS at #88), he easily wins out over those ranked below (TSN has the high with #29)
44. Patrick Sieloff (D) (47.14) – who would have thought two assists in 24-games would earn you a ranking this high?  Sieloff gets a first round nod from HP (#24), but RLR has him mid-third round (#75)
45. Damon Severson (48.86) – while RLR has him in the first round (#30), most see him later in the second; THN slots him in the third at #65
46. Daniil Zharkov (50.00) – one suspects the Russian factor has made his rankings erratic, with FC putting him at #32 while HP has him at #75
47. Brady Vail (52.00) – the final player to be ranked in the second round by all sources; the high is #40 (McK), the low #60 (TSN)
48. Adam Pelech (D) (52.29) – the second last player to get a first round ranking (#30 from ISS), both RLR and FC have him in the third (#73 FC)
49. Mike Winther (57.14) – his score is off because of HP’s ranking (#97), but he easily beats both Slepyshev and Sutter on aggregate; THN has the high at #35
50. Anton Slepyshev (53.5) – the first player not ranked by all sources (TSN doesn’t list him), none of the players below him truly compare to his rankings; ISS has him highest (#36), while HP puts him lowest (#78)
51. Lukas Sutter (55.14) – despite his number he isn’t that far ahead of Maidens; RLR has the high (#37), while ISS has the low (#68)
52. Jarrod Maidens (58.14) – suffers from RLR’s score (#81); THN provides the high (#38)
53. Brian Hart (59.43) – ranges from #46 (TSN/FC) to #95 (HP)
54. Cristoval Nieves (62.29) – not the next highest by score, but is easily the next highest on aggregate; TSN has the high (#51), while RLR has the low (#93)
55. Nikolai Prokhorkin (62.5) – like Nieves he’s not the next highest, but wins head-to-head; ranges from #51 (ISS) to #77 (McK)
56. Jake McCabe (66.86) – along with the previous two players, the aggregate puts him ahead; ranges from #35 (FC) to #98 (HP)
57. Dane Fox (64.83) – ranges from #45 (RLR) to #94 (FC)
58. Chandler Stephenson (64.83) – statistical tie with Fox, but loses head-to-head; RLR has the high (#53), while FC has the low (#85)
59. Matt Murray (G) (65.28) – the final player with four second round selections; ranges from #41 (FC) to #119 (RLR)
60. Mikko Vainonen (D) (73.17) – tied with Gemel Smith as the last player with three second round selections, but he wins on aggregate; HP has the high (#39) while RLR has a low (#122)

Honourable mentions: Gemel Smith is the final player with three second round selections (ISS/HP/THN); eight other players were selected twice (Joonas Korpisalo (FC/McK), Devin Shore (RLR/TSN), Tanner Richard (RLR/HP), Andreas Athanasiou (ISS/THN), Calle Andersson (ISS/FC), Nick Ebert (RLR/THN), Tomas Hyka (ISS/THN), and Trevor Carrick (ISS/McK)).  I’ll also mention Dominic Toninato who has a very high score, but was only picked by two publications (RLR/HP) which isn’t enough for his placement to reflect that score.

Third Round

61. Gemel Smith (66.33) – the last player with three second round selections; ranges from #46 (THN) to #83 (RLR/McK)
62. Joonas Korpisalo (G) (70.2) – CS’ third ranked European goaltender has a wide range, from #51 (McK) to the fourth round (ISS)
63. Emil Lundberg (60.33) – a wild card as only three publications list him (ISS, FC, and THN), he’s well-regarded by those sources (#52 from THN to #66 from ISS)
64. Devin Shore (66.00) – a couple of players have better scores, but he’s by far the best aggregate of all the players who follow; his range is #46 (RLR) to #90 (McK)
65. Brett Kulak (D) (62.67) – highly regarded by HP (#32); FC and ISS share his low score (#71)
66. Branden Troock (73.17) – hammered by RLR (#116), THN has him in the second round (#54)
67. Calle Andersson (D) (76.33) – a wide range for the Swede, with a #39 from FC and a #144 from RLR
68. Brandon Whitney (G) (72.6) – CS’ second ranked North American goaltender, ISS has him in the fourth round while he’s at #53 for HP
69. Andreas Athanasiou (73.67) – widely divergent opinions with THN putting him at #32 and McKeens at #106
70. Tomas Hyka (80.17) – another player who could go early or late, both ISS and THN still have him at #39 while RLR ranks him at #124
71. Nick Ebert (D) (79.83) – no one’s stock fell from greater heights than Ebert’s; RLR still has him at #54, while McKeens ranks him at #111
72. Matia Marcantuoni (81.29) – the last player ranked by all sources, he ranges from #58 (TSN) to #110 (RLR)
73. Trevor Carrick (D) (85.83) – suffers from RLR’s ranking (#155), McKeens thinks highly of him (#49)
74. Tanner Richard (73.5) – either a second or fourth rounder, #43 (RLR) to #105 (FC)
75. Dylan Blujus (D) (80.83) – HP isn’t a fan (#115), but THN has him in the second round (#57)
76. Robbie Baillargeon (79.2) – loses to Blujus on aggregate, ranges from #69 (ISS) to #107 (FC)
77. Esa Lindell (D) (96.67) – suffers from RLR’s #187, HP puts him in the second round (#41)
78. Sam Kurker (83.83) – one of TSN’s last selections, he beats Bluegar on aggregate; high of #55 (TSN), low of #117 (RLR)
79. Teddy Bluegar (80.2) – ranges from #58 (McK) to #116 (FC)
80. James Melindy (D) (83.00) – next best on aggregate, ranging from #60 (FC) to #114 (HP)
81. Dillon Fournier (D) (85.17) – all over the map with HP’s #37 and ISS’ #132
82. Troy Bourke (93.4) – his score is blown up by HP’s #180; RLR puts him in the second round (#51)
83. Zach Stepan (94.17) – the last player with four third-round selections, HP has the high (#70), while RLR has the low (#164)
84. Raphael Bussieres (89.33) – wins the aggregate battle over Stolarz; ranges from #76 (McK) to #104 (RLR)
85. Anthony Stolarz (G) (86.8) – CS’ fourth ranked North American goaltender is a second-rounder for HP (#54); FC has the low (#108)
86. Steven Hodges (90.00) – is evenly placed in the third and fourth round, ranging from #77 (THN) to #99 (FC)
87. Charles Hudon (93.17) – a high of #52 (FC) to a low of #129 (HP)
88. Coda Gordon (94.67) – all over the map, suffering from HP’s ranking (#136), FC has him in the second round (#54)
89. Gianluca Curcuruto (D) (92.00) – ranges from #70 (RLR) to #128 (HP)
90. Nikita Gusev (109.2) – a huge range from #49 (ISS) to #218 (RLR)

Honourable mention: Toninato (mentioned above) remains out for the same reason why Jacob Slavin (he on the back of a high HP rating).  Jon Gillies, Erik Karlsson, Nicholas Walters, and Joe Paterson had three selections in the third (or second) round, while the following 17 players had at least two third round (or a second and third round) selections: Andrei Makarov, MacKenzie MacEachern, Mitchell Moroz, Brian Cooper, Cody Corbett, Logan Nelson, Josh Anderson, Ben Johnson, Samuel Fejes, Jesse Graham, Ryan Culkin, John Draegar, Marcus McIvor, Collin Olson, Mikael Wikstrand, Valeri Vasiliev, and Brock McGinn.

91. Jake Paterson (G) (98.4) – ranges from #59 (McK) to #175 (RLR)
92. Jon Gillies (G) (104.4) – beats Karlsson on aggregate, ranging from #61 (McK) to #200 (HP)
93. Erik Karlsson (103.4) – he’s all over the map from #46 (McK) to #170 (RLR)
94. Nicholas Walters (D) (112.00) – the last player with three selections in the second or third round, he ranges from #57 (HP) to #126 (RLR)
95. Jacob Slavin (D) (92.33) – only listed by three sources, his high is #65 (HP), the low #112 (FC)
96. Dominic Toninato (51.00) – only listed by two sources, but both rank him highly (#36 from RLR, #66 from HP)
97. Mitchell Moroz (101.00) – the second last player ranked by TSN (#56), he wins the aggregate battle against those with higher scores; his low is ISS’ #170
98. Brian Cooper (D) (102.5) – another aggregate winner, he ranges from #79 (THN) to #160 (HP)
99. Brendan Leipsic (96.8) – in a statistical tie with Tikkinen, but wins head-to-head; high of #57 (RLR) and low of #135 (HP)
100. Niklas Tikkinen (D) (96.8) – range of #43 (ISS) to #134 (FC)
101. Ben Johnson (111.8) – rankings all over the place with a #56 from ISS and a #186 from HP; he beats out those with higher scores on aggregate
102. Cody Corbett (D) (104.2) – the next aggregate champ, his high is #66 (FC) and his low is #143 (RLR)
103. Josh Anderson (106.00) – I’ve seen his first name spelt Joshua as well; the next head-t0-head champ; he ranges from #68 (HP) to #177 (RLR)
104. Mackenzie MacEachern (99.5) – not ranked by ISS, his high is #73 (RLR), his low #141 (FC)
105. Riley Barber (108.2) – an aggregate champ, he ranges from #82 (RLR) to #139 (FC)
106. Seth Griffith (101.3) – ranges from #52 (RLR) to #144 (ISS)
107. Andrei Makarov (G) (115.6) – ahead on aggregate, he’s all over the place, from #44 (RLR) to a 7th rounder (ISS)
108. Jake Dotchin (D) (100.5) – an HP favourite (#30), his low is #154 (FC)
109. Francois Tremblay (G) (110.8) – ranges from #71 (McK) to a 5th rounder (ISS)
110. Logan Nelson (105.8) – behind Tremblay head-to-head, he ranges from #66 (McK) to #142 (FC)
111. Chris Calnan (110.4) – big range between McKeen’s #78 and ISS’ #157
112. Henri Ikonen (148.2) – his score is massively inflated by RLR’s #301 which is far above all his other rankings (McKeen’s has him at #75)
113. Mikael Wikstrand (D) (128.2) – hammered by RLR’s #191, ISS and THN rank him at #85
114. Samuel Fejes (113.00) – suffers from RLR’s #181, FC puts him in the second round (#59)
115. Chris Tierney (113.8) – beats Vatrano head-to-head, ranges from #87 (RLR) to #177 (FC)
116. Frankie Vatrano (113.3) – beats Vesey on aggregate, his high is #97 (THN) and his low is #144 (HP)
117. Jim Vesey (112.8) – ranges from #85 (RLR) to #152 (HP)
118. Valeri Vasiliev (D) (132.8) – all over the place, but one of the last players with a second round ranking (#57); RLR puts him out of the draft (#243)
119. Brock McGinn (138.00) – the last player ranked by TSN (#59), he’s not well-regarded by ISS (#164)
120. Jesse Graham (D) (114.3) – ranges from #65 (ISS) to #181 (FC)

Honourable mention: Culkin, Draegar, McIvor, and Olson remain with two third round selections; a large number of players remain with at least one third round placement; Connor Brown remains as the only player left with a second round ranking (another radical HP selection).  Justin Kea has the highest remaining score, but was only picked by two sources (ISS and McKeen’s), and Michael Clarke leads the way with four fourth-round selections (ISS, HP, McK, and THN).

Fifth Round

121. Ryan Culkin (D) (117.00) – the next aggregate champ, a high of #67 (ISS) and a low of #182 (RLR)
122. Marcus McIvor (D) (123.6) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#205); ISS has him at #78
123. Michael Clarke (117.8) – more fourth round selections than anyone else; ranges from #94 (McK) to #159 (FC)
124. Collin Olson (G) (124.3) – hurt by HP’s ranking (#199); FC puts him at #84
125. John Draegar (D) (122.00) – the last player with two third round selections; ranges from #81 (McK) to #157 (FC)
126. Artur Gavrus (120.6) – third round consideration from RLR (#72), he bottoms out with FC (#167)
127. Kevin Roy (117.8) – a wide range, from #80 (McK) to #156 (RLR)
128. Matthew DeBlouw (119.5) – hurt by FC’s ranking (#170); ISS has him at #87
129. Connor Carrick (D) (125.00) – next on aggregate; his high is #85 (HP) and his low is #162 (ISS)
130. Christian Djoos (D) (132.8) – hurt by RLR’s #196, FC picks him for the third round (#83)
131. Max Iafrate (D) (114.5) – ranges from #80 (ISS) to #150 (HP)
132. Justin Hache (D) (125.8) – next on aggregate, ranging from #88 (THN) to #188 (HP)
133. Zack Leslie (D) (124.5) – ranges from #81 (THN) to #159 (ISS)
134. Tyrel Seaman (127.00) – wins head-to-head; #91 (THN) to #161 (HP)
135. Cedric Paquette (126.00) – only three sources list him with ISS providing the low (#168) and RLR the high (#94)
136. Daniel Altshuller (G) (128.5) – all over the place, with an #95 (FC) to a sixth round from ISS
137. Chris Marchese (126.00) – ranges from #106 (HP) to #152 (FC)
138. Jujhar Khaira (128.8) – a high of #108 (RLR) to a low of #149 (FC)
139. Jordan Martinook (125.00) – hurt by RLR’s #190, HP has him in the third round (#72)
140. Dan O’Regan (129.5) – ranges from #113 (RLR) to #145 (FC)
141. Justin Kea (111.5) – only ranked by two sources (#105 ISS and #118 McK)
142. Francis Beauvillier (145.00) – aggregate champ, he ranges from #95 (McK) to #210 (HP)
143. Travis Brown (D) (120.3) – ranges from #96 (RLR) to #135 (FC)
144. Anton Zlobin (145.5) – all over the place from #91 (RLR) to #203 (HP)
145. Petteri Lindbohm (D) (121.5) – only picked by two sources (#118 ISS and #125 FC)
146. Kenton Helgesen (D) (122.5) – also only picked by two sources (#96 ISS and #149 RLR)
147. Devin Tringale (119.00) only picked by two sources (#106 ISS and #132 FC)
148. Christophe Lalancette (136.00) – next on aggregate, he ranges from #109 (FC) to #189 (ISS)
149. Viacheslav Osnovin (146.5) – his score is thrown by RLR’s #248; ISS puts him in the third round (#77)
150. Chris Driedger (G) (136.00) – aggregate winner, ISS has him as a third rounder while HP ranks him at #185

Honourable mentions: Brown still remains (the last second round pick), as do 8 players who received a third round selection (Rhett Holland, Ryan Rupert, Judd Peterson, Jaynen Rissling, Jake Montgomery, Ludvig Nilsson, Matthew Lane, and Mike McKee).

Sixth Round

151. Brandon Magee (130.00) – only listed by two sources (#123 ISS, #137 RLR)
152. Kristoff Kontos (133.7) – ranges from #105 (HP) to #171 (FC)
153. Ludvig Nilsson (161.2) – very mixed opinions on him, with THN ranking him at #67 and RLR dropping him out of the draft at #249
154. Matej Beran (134.7) – aggregate champ, ranges from #93 (ISS) to #180 (FC)
155. Mikko Lehtonen (D) (142.3) – hurt by RLR (#193), HP puts him in the fourth round (#113)
156. Troy Donnay (D) (148.00) – his score is thrown by RLR (#250); ISS ranks him at #92
157. Gustav Rydahl (137.3) – drops due to aggregate, he ranges from #103 (FC) to #161 (ISS)
158. Alexandre Mallet (138.7) – thrown by his ISS score (#198), HP ranks him at #107
159. Cameron Darcy (163.8) – head-to-head leader, his high score is #113 (ISS), his low #251 (RLR)
160. Reece Wilcox (D) (148.00) – next on aggregate, ranging from #101 (McK) to #194 (FC)
161. Quentin Shore (155.3) – scores are all over the place, from #104 (McK) to #233 (RLR)
162. Thomas Di Pauli (169.3) – buried by RLR (#255), HP has him at #117
163. Alexei Filippov (172.5) – also buried by RLR (#235), ISS has him at #127
164. Matthew Campagna (140.00) – best score among players with three or more sources; from #101 RLR to #173 HP
165. Jaynen Rissling (D) (150.5) – highest ranked player with four sources; from #64 RLR to #204 HP
166. Dominic Volek (151.8) – wide variety of opinion, from #99 (THN) to #180 (ISS)
167. Ashton Sautner (D) (168.00) – ranges from #130 ISS to #203 RLR
168. Jake Montgomery (160.5) – his score is hurt by RLR (#215); FC puts him in the third round (#86)
169. Rhett Holland (D) (145.00) – the highest ranked three-source player remaining; RLR #68, ISS #199
170. Ryan Rupert (147.3) – ranges from #74 (RLR) to #200 (ISS)
171. Graham Black (154.3) – rankings from #114 (RLR) to #177 (HP)
172. Joey Laleggia (D) (154.7) – ranges from #112 (HP) to #177 (ISS)
173. Matthew Beattie (155.7) – best three-sourcer on aggregate; #144 FC to #166 RLR
174. A. J. Michaelson (169.00) – his score is hurt by HP (#198), ISS with the high at #133
175. Adam Gilmour (177.8) – RLR throws his score with a #234; FC has the high at #137
176. Francois Brassard (G) (148.6) – ranges from #120 (RLR) to #191 (HP)
177. Carter Rigby (158.7) – high of #138 (RLR) to a low of #173 (ISS)
178. Matthew Lane (180.3) – ranges from #89 (ISS) to #239 (RLR)
179. Logan McVeigh (158.00) – hurt by his RLR ranking (#209); high of #120 (FC)
180. Austin Wuthrich (134.00) – only ranked by McKeens and HP

Honourable mention: Brown remains with his second round selection; Peterson and McKee are the only players left with a third round selection.  Reid Gow and Andrew Ryan are the only players remaining picked to be drafted by four sources.  There are some highly ranked players from CS that are either not considered by any other source or only by one.

Seventh Round

181. Dakota Mermis (D) (139.00) – only ranked by ISS and FC
182. Jake Bischoff (D) (140.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
183. Connor Brown (156.7) – loved by HP (#58), RLR has the low at #238
184. Joel Wigle (163.7) – ahead on aggregate, ranging from #108 (HP) to #246 (RLR)
185. Marek Langhammer (G) (150.00) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS ranks him as the 5th best European goaltender
186. Tobias Tornkvist (152.00) –  along with FC and RLR, CS ranks him as 29th among European skaters
187. Erik Thorell (n/a) – ranked #111 by ISS, CS lists him as the 19th best European skater
188. Jeremy Boyce Rotevall (n/a) – ranked #120 by ISS, CS lists him as the 24th best European skater
189. Reid Gow (D) (176.3) – the second last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (HP) to #190 (FC)
190. Andrew Ryan (187.8) – the last player picked by four sources to be drafted; ranges from #162 (RLR) to #205 (FC)
191. Denis Kamaev (192.3) – his score is thrown by RLR (#296); ISS has him at #138
192. Brandon Devlin (D) (185.00) – the last player to appear in four sources; ranges from #147 (ISS) to #254 (RLR)
193. Patrik Bartosak (G) (175.6) – ranges from #158 (FC) to #204 (RLR)
194. Cain Franson (174.00) – a high of #142 (ISS), a low of #202 (RLR)
195. Cliff Watson (D) (178.3) – ranges from #165 (HP) to #188 (RLR)
196. Grant Besse (180.00) – the last player picked by three sources to be drafted; ranges from #139 (RLR) to #207 (FC)
197. Zane Jones (145.5) – only ranked by RLR and ISS
198. Colin Smith (152.5) – only ranked by RLR and FC
199. Nathan Pancel (154.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
200. Matt Rupert (158.5) – only ranked by RLR and HP
201. Christoph Bertschy (168.5) – gets the nod by being CS’ 35th ranked European skater (also ranked by RLR and HP)
202. Nathan Walker (172.00) – CS’ 25th ranked European skater (also ranked by ISS and RLR)
203. Alexei Bereglazov (D) (n/a) – ranked #95 by RLR, CS lists him as the 54th best European skater
204. Thomas Spelling (n/a) – ranked #115 by RLR, CS lists him as the 90th best European skater
205. Vladislav Shalimov (201.7) – ranges from #155 (ISS) to #281 (RLR)
206. Alexander Kerfoot (203.3) – ranges from #146 (FC) to #257 (RLR)
207. Alex Gudbranson (D) (162.5) – the top remaining two-source player (ranked by ISS and HP)
208. Liam O’Brien (163.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
209. Zack Mitchell (166.00) – ranked by ISS and HP
210. Simon Fernholm (D) (204.5) – ranked by FC and RLR, CS has him among the best in Europe (#32)

Honourable mentions: Judd Peterson (HP) and Mike McKee (RLR) who were ranked as third-rounders; 12 players were picked twice to be drafted (Cody Payne, James De Haas, Taylor Leier, Michael Houser, Michal Plutnar, Egor Malenkikh, Warren Steele, Brendan Collier, Taylor Burke, Mackenzie Weegar, Myles Bell, and Etienne Marcoux).  Three Europeans ranked by CS in their top-30 were not listed by any other source (Evgeni Krutikov, Erik Nemec, Otso Rantakari, and Jean Auren, the fourth ranking European goaltender).  Adam Johnson was CS’ top-listed North American who does not appear above (#82 on their list).  Other notables (picked in the fourth round): Christopher Clapperton (FC), Malte Stromwall (McK), Brett Foy (HP), Alex Basso (HP), Eric Locke (RLR), and Lukas Balmelli (ISS).  I did not use Corey Pronman’s list in my analysis and two of his second round picks (Austin Cangelosi and Austin Czarnik) do not appear (along with five of his third round selections).  For the scores of those above:
Judd Peterson (150.00)
Cody Payne (168.00)
James De Haas (170.5)
Taylor Leier (171.5)
Michael Houser (173.00)
Michal Plutnar (176.5)
Egor Malenkikh (177.00)
Warren Steele (178.00)
Brendan Collier (180.5)
Taylor Burke (187.00)
Christopher Clapperton (193.5)
Mackenzie Weegar (197.5)
Myles Bell (200.00)
Malte Stromwall (210.00)
Etienne Marcoux (220.00)

Overall the list includes 129 forwards, 64 defensemen, and 17 goaltenders, with 39 players coming fom Europe and 171 coming from North American leagues.

There are strong streaks of dissonance from HP’s rankings in the draft (mostly early) and RLR (generally later).  It will be interesting to see how much success each has once the draft is over.

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9 Comments

  1. […] Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft […]

  2. […] Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft […]

  3. […] Analysis and Predictions for the 2012 NHL Entry Draft […]

  4. […] the listed players taken in the draft (again, only using those who predicted the entire draft): EOTS 160/211 (75.8%) RLR 156/211 (73.9%) HP 152/211 (72.0%) FC 150/211 (71.1%) ISS 146/220 (70.4%) […]

  5. […] Marek Mazanec (a sixth-round pick in 2012 who didn’t make my (or really anyone’s) 2012 draft predictions, Central Scouting had him tenth among European goaltenders the previous year), has been phenomenal […]

  6. […] 2012 draft and it’s difficult to make sense of that in retrospect (for those who remember my 2012 draft preview no scouting service had Ceci any higher than […]

  7. […] defenseman doesn’t have size (he’s 5’11), which is probably why scouting services didn’t rank him for the draft, but both players are interesting examples of how relatively poor NHL teams are at […]

  8. […] in the KHL); Rangers signed KHL defenseman Alexei Bereglazov (I had him slatted as a late pick in 2012 on the strength of Corey Pronman and RLR, but at the time he had no interest in playing in North […]

  9. […] also a greater chance of disaster (the 2012 top-ten); granted that had GM’s followed the consensus only two would have been bombed).  Also of note, the rules for overage Europeans have always been […]


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