Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions

Here follows predictions for Ottawa’s selections over the next two days.  Before getting into the specifics it’s worth looking at draft trends under Bryan Murray.  There’s not much to be drawn from the 2007 draft class given when Murray was hired, so I’ve left it out, but the four drafts since then are indicative.  First, a brief look at the picks and where they are now:

2008
1-15 Erik Karlsson (DR, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC) – NHL
2-42 Patrick Wiercioch (DL, USHL, Omaha) – AHL
3-79 Zack Smith (C/LW, WHL, Swift Current) – NHL
4-109 Andre Petersson (RW/LW, SuperElit, HV71; WJC) – AHL
4-119 Derek Grant (C/LW, BCHL, Langley) – AHL
5-139 Mark Borowiecki (DL, CJHL, Smith Falls) – AHL
7-199 Emil Sandin (RW/LW, SuperElit, Brynas) – FA (unsigned)
2009
1-9 Jared Cowen (DL, WHL, Spokane; WHC-17) – NHL
2-39 Jakob Silfverberg (C/W, SuperElit, Brynas; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
2-46 Robin Lehner (G, SuperElit, Frolunda; WJC-18) – AHL
4-100 Chris Wideman (DR, NCAA, Miami) – AHL
5-130 Mike Hoffman (C/LW, QMJHL, Drummondville) – AHL
5-146 Jeff Costello (LW, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
6-160 Corey Cowick (LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – AHL
7-190 Brad Peltz (LW, USHS, Avon Old Farms) – NCAA
7-191 Michael Sdao (DL, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA
2010
3-76 Jakub Culek (C/LW, QMJHL, Rimouski; WJC-18) – AHL
4-106 Marcus Sorensen (RW, SuperElit, Sodertalje) – FA (unsigned)
6-178 Mark Stone (RW, WHL, Brandon) – AHL/NHL
7-196 Bryce Aneloski (DR, USHL, Cedar Rapids) – NCAA
2011
1-6 Mika Zibanejad (C/RW, SEL, Djurgardens; WJC-18) – NHL/AHL
1-21 Stefan Noesen (C/RW, OHL, Plymouth) – OHL
1-24 Matt Puempel (LW, OHL, Peterborough) – OHL
2-61 Shane Prince (C/LW, OHL, Ottawa 67s) – OHL/AHL
4-96 Jean-Gabriel Pageau (RW, QMJHL, Gatineau) – QMJHL/AHL
5-126 Fredrik Claesson (DL, SEL, Djurgardens, WJC-18) – AHL
6-156 Darren Kramer (C/LW, WHL, Spokane) – AHL
6-171 Max McCormick (LW, USHL, Sioux City) – NCAA
7-186 Jordan Fransoo (DR, WHL, Brandon) – WHL
7-204 Ryan Dzingel (C/LW, USHL, Lincoln) – NCAA

That’s a total of 30 players, with 20 forwards, 9 defencemen, and 1 goaltender; 14 from the Canadian junior systems, 8 from the various US systems, and 8 from Sweden.  As for trends, 8 teams have had two players selected by the Senators (Frolunda, Brynas, Djurgardens, Ottawa 67s, Brandon, Spokane, Lincoln and Cedar Rapids).  In at least a few cases it seems that scouting one player has lead to the selection of another (Brandon Fransoo via Mark Stone and Bryce Aneloski via Jeff CostelloChris Wideman also played for Cedar Rapids).  The only trend among the Swedes is that most had international experience prior to being drafted and none are from the northern club teams.  Among the USHL selections (6), most have been from the West Division (Lincoln, Omaha, and Sioux City).  Of the Canadian selections 4 players have been from local teams (Mark Borowiecki, Corey Cowick, Shane Prince, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau), but are otherwise fairly spread out.  Thus far the only busts have been undersized Swedes (Emil Sandin and Marcus Sorensen).  I have to wonder if the Swedish flavour will be diminished by the absence of former scout Anders Forsberg.  The other trend is that the Sens try to make trades at the draft (be it the deal that landed Erik Karlsson in 2008, the trade to pick Michael Sdao in 2009, moving the first-rounder to get David Rundblad in 2010, or the deal that landed them Matt Puempel in 2011).

As far as what this means for this year’s draft we’ll have to wait and see, but there’s no reason to doubt that the team will make drafting blueliners and a goaltender a priority.  Ottawa has the following picks: #15, #76, #82, #106, #136, #166, and #196.  I think the odds are good that the Sens will try to trade up, likely sacrificing their third-round selections in the hopes of landing a goaltender (I do not believe they will use their first-round pick on a goalie).  However, if they keep all their picks here’s my guess at the players they will select:
1-15 Hampus Lindholm (DL 6’2 SuperElit Rogle) – the Swedish blueliner has been a popular selection in mock drafts for the Sens and there’s little reason to doubt he’s part of their discussions; other players to consider are Olli Maatta (DL 6’1 OHL London) or Derrick Pouliot (DL 6’0 WHL Portland)
3-76 Calle Andersson (DR 6’2 SuperElit Malmo) – a right-handed Swedish blueliner; could also see James Melindy (DR 6’3 QMJHL Moncton), Dylan Blujus (DR 6’3 OHL Brampton), or scoring winger Robbie Baillargeon (RW 6’0 USHL Indiana)
3-82 Esa Lindell (DL 6’2 Fin Jr Jokerit) – Finnish blueliner coming off a solid WJC-18; it could also be any of the players mentioned above or power forward Mitchell Moroz (LW 6’2 WHL Edmonton)
4-106 Erik Karlsson (LW 5’11 SuperElit Frolunda) – Swedish winger; it could also be Moroz (above) or scoring winger Kevin Roy (LW 5’10 USHL Lincoln)
5-136 Daniel Altshuller (G 6’2 OHL Oshawa) – the Sens brought him to Ottawa; could also be Roy (above)
6-166 Carter Rigby (LW 6’0 WHL Kelowna) – power forward; could also be Francois Brassard (G 6’0 QMJHL Quebec), another goalie brought to Ottawa
7-196 Mike McKee (DL 6’4 USHL Lincoln) – rugged blueliner; it could also be Zane Jones (LW 6’0 WHL Victoria) a rugged winger

So, if my analysis and predictions for the draft are 100% correct in terms of who is available when (unlikely), the list looks like this:
Hampus Lindholm (D) – a Swede and a blueliner
James Melindy (D) – would fill the QMJHL quota (one player each of the last three drafts)
Mitchell Moroz – the Sens like power forwards
Erik Karlsson – undersized Swedish forward with skill (and would be another player picked from Frolunda)
Daniel Altshuller (G) – they’ve said repeatedly they will pick a goalie
Carter Rigby – yet another power forward
Mike McKee (D) – tough blueliner in the mould of Michael Sdao (and would be another player from Cedar Rapids)

Advertisements

3 Comments

  1. […] Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions […]

  2. […] Ottawa 2012 Draft Predictions […]

  3. […] has overwhelmed any notion of a positional preference (although they rarely pick goaltenders).  Last year when I went through this exercise I picked 2 of the 7 players selected–hopefully that can be […]


Comments RSS TrackBack Identifier URI

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s