Player Profile: Nathan Lawson

Nathan Lawson (GL, 6’2, DOB 1983, undrafted, Capgeek: 600k/105k)
2009-10 AHL Bridgeport 19-9-2 2.52 .922
2010-11 AHL Bridgeport 16-16-3 2.90 .913
2010-11 NHL Islanders 1-4-2 4.06 .893
2011-12 AHL Hamilton 19-17-4 2.57 .914

The undrafted NCAA vet spent a year in the ECHL (mostly in Utah) before joining the Islander organisation in 2008-09.  He played with Montreal’s affiliate last year and isn’t expected to see any NHL time nor seriously challenge Robin Lehner in Binghamton.  Tim Murray said “Well, he’s a depth guy for us right now, but we know he can certainly start at the American Hockey League level. He’s put up good numbers there in the past, so he’s at least that. He’s played games in the National Hockey League. We’ve had guys in the past here who have come up in a pinch — like Robin has in the past, like Mike Brodeur has in the past — so we feel that this kid could, with a couple injuries or if we were stuck, he could come up here and help us not to lose games. That’s what we’re looking for. But the main point right now is, he could, we think he’s a real good American League goalie and could certainly start at that level if need be.”.  Justin Goldman provides a very thorough scouting report based on his NHL debut two seasons ago:

Lawson’s overall biometrics and positioning is well-suited for the NHL. He’s listed at 6-foot-2 and employs a slightly wide stance in order to appear even bigger in the crease. He plays slightly deep in his crease, but does an excellent job of challenging shooters and eliminating time and space when needed. I consider him a passive butterfly goalie with a strong sense of reading plays and pushing into pucks. He absorbs a lot of shots and has great rebound control. Another important aspect of biometrics and technique is a goalie’s balance point. Lawson’s balance is definitely further back on his heels, which lends a hand to his calm style. He has a docile demeanor in the sense he does not over-play pucks or have over-active hands. He has great patience and rarely loses balance. His low center of gravity and tremendous leg strength gives him a solid presence in the net. When looking at Lawson’s strengths, the most obvious trait is his puck moving skills. Aside from his poise, patience, rebound control and ability to challenge shooters, I liked his straight back, lateral movement and his crouching ability. On many routine saves, he moved fluidly to either side and reinforced his legs with good hand placement. He also did a good job of incorporating an active stick when making saves down low. The most visible weakness in Lawson was  dropping into the butterfly too early. Another area of weakness is overall foot speed. Because his balance point is further back on his heels and he’s a passive goalie, he will need to work on actively engaging his inside edges and getting quicker at his overall butterfly recovery if he wants to thrive in the NHL. The final area of weakness at the NHL level is his inability to rotate his hips while down in the butterfly. This is an important aspect of keeping the lower portion of the ice sealed when giving up a rebound and effectively sliding laterally on his knees. Instead of rotating his hips and then pushing, he would try to recover to his feet, which brought his knees off the ice and eroded his perfect balance.

There is a lot of insight here, but I think I can sum it up by saying: he’s a solid AHL goaltender, but clearly not an NHL goaltender.  He’s another example of just how much quality minor league goaltending exists–Bryan Murray has never struggled to find solid free agents to fill that need.

Senators News: July 15th

-The early news about a new CBA in the NHL has all been par for the course thus far.  I agree with Bob McKenzie that until September all the rhetoric isn’t worth getting excited about.  As I’ve said before I believe a deal will be struck before the season begins, but until then expect to hear endless doom and gloom.

Tim Murray talked about signing Andre Benoit:

It’s great to have him back. He was a huge part of our organization two years ago, showing he can play at this level, at least short-term, and a huge part of the championship team in Binghamton, as far as on-ice, off-ice leadership, leading by example. To me (he was) probably the best player throughout the playoffs in the league. We want good people, and he is good people. He’s a leader at the AHL level, he’s a quiet, efficient veteran at the NHL level. He’s a pro’s pro. He knows what it takes to get ready for games, he knows what it takes to play at a high level in the AHL and a level that certainly does not hurt us at this level. I think he was a big part of some of our kids that have come up here and had some success from Binghamton. I think Andre should take pride in the fact he had a lot to do with that. We’ve had the conversation that I think our coaching staff and the organization has been very fair in the last three years on who gets games and who makes the team. Draft status and reputation don’t matter as much to us as the type of player and the type of person you are and your production. We know at the very least Andre is a top player at the AHL level. We certainly know he can play games up here, whether that’s on a short-term basis or a long-term basis, we’ll have to see with him. As I said to him, it’s always up to the player. But I expect he’ll come in at great shape, and I expect he’ll come in with the attitude he wants to win a job. We certainly know that he’s not automatically destined for Binghamton, that he’s going to come in here and, knowing him, he’s.

That gives you an idea of how much the Sens think of Benoit, but at the same time I think there’s no chance (barring injury) that he plays in Ottawa with regularity unless there’s a serious injury.

Luke Richardson gave some of his thoughts going into his first year as a head coach:

We do have a big load of young talent, but you can’t just go with all young talent. You have to make sure you do your homework and get the good (veterans). (Benoit) has a great personality. He has been around. He has some experience in Europe. He has all kinds of experiences. Young guys ask a lot of questions and you want to make sure they grow up right, in the right circumstance. Sometimes you look around and you see some guys with good talent and they’re in and out of the (NHL). If they have the wrong mindset early (in their professional careers), it’s hard to change. All those guys are looking at spots opening (with Ottawa) and they want to keep their dreams alive. For me, one way or another, it’s about having more depth. If Andre is down there (in Binghamton) for the full year or only part of it, he brings great leadership. We want to bring the best out of all of them and be honest with them. If there’s a flaw in their game, we will work on it.

Intentional or not the comments about the lack of leadership last season are a shot at some of the veterans who were with Binghamton this past season (it’s hard to guess who specifically it might be referring too).

Nichols echoes my thought that “Bryan [Murray] was simply catering to the line of questioning that was directed towards him” when discussing team toughness.

Senators News: July 13th

Kaspars Daugavins‘ arbitration hearing has been set for July 24th.  Ken Warren writes “If the Senators don’t like the ruling, they can simply walk away from the decision, allowing Daugavins to become an unrestricted free agent. If, on the other hand, Daugavins is awarded another two-way deal, paying him different salaries based on whether he plays in the NHL or the AHL, he could opt to play in the KHL with a team in Riga, Latvia, his home country.”  Warren’s impression that the Sens can walk away is contrary to what Nichols wrote yesterday.

Bryan Murray says he’s going to look for a Chris Neil clone via trade…I wish him the best of luck with that.  Tough players who can also play the game effectively are extremely rare and virtually never available and I don’t see him moving an asset for a one-dimensional heavyweight.  It’s also not clear to me if Murray meant he’d make such a move any time soon, as what does “We have to address that vacancy somehow and we will do that, but (Neil) has still got to play that role for us, hopefully with the assistance of other players” really mean in terms of urgency?  One wonders if the comment was meant to make the Don Brennan’s of the world shut-up about toughness for awhile.

-Speaking of toughness, Ellen Etchingham has a great article about Cam Janssen and similar players that we hear so much about:

Notice how there is no mention whatsoever of helping the team, of protecting stars, of making space for scoring? Nope. It’s all the self-aggrandizing rhetoric of threat. When Janssen talks about his role on the ice, it consists entirely of this: fighting whoever is willing to fight him and head-hunting whoever has the puck. The only person he’s interested in protecting is himself, from people saying mean things to him. Since all the rules restricting fighting came into play, the only way real way erstwhile ‘policemen’ can make themselves useful is by trying to use intimidation tactics, and not the intimidation that comes from fighting, but the intimidation that comes from concussing. So let’s just drop all the crap about ‘protecting stars’ and ‘making space.’ Maybe that’s how it was in the eighties, but that ain’t how it is now.

This is a great point and what does it say about Janssen‘s value that the best he can do in the NHL are back-to-back a two-way deals?

Cam Janssen doesn’t exist to make hockey safer for good players. He exists to make it more dangerous for them. He exists to skate around uselessly until he sees someone get the puck and have to put themselves in a momentarily vulnerable position to make a play and then hurt them. And he’s proud of it. Goons get all the fucking honorifics in hockey. So brave! So tough! So selfless! Bullshit. Where is the fucking honor in that? Where is the courage? What is so selfless and noble about sneaking up behind skill and destroying it? In fact, you know what? If anything, that sounds a bit like cowardice to me, because it’s doing a kind of harm to others that you never have to face yourself. Cam Janssen doesn’t have to worry about somebody leveling him while he’s carrying the puck because in the NHL Cam Janssen couldn’t carry the puck if they let him do it in a fucking Easter basket. Oh sure, he’ll attack people face to face, when he can see punches coming and can hit back. He’ll fight people fairly. But the kind of unfair, non-consensual violence he’s talking about inflicting on others is the sort he doesn’t have to face himself, because he is a terrible hockey player who barely has the puck long enough to be vulnerable with it. He’s not a policeman. He’s a scavenger. If Janssen’s shit actually worked the way he described, the Devils would be playing him fifteen minutes a night on the top line so he could terrify opposing forwards into coughing the puck up for Kovalchuk. Instead, they don’t dress him for half the regular season and not even one playoff game, and when they do let him play, they give him only five of the very softest minutes against the easiest opposition.  Cam Janssen plays the tenderest, juiciest minutes in the game and he still gets roundly crushed in more or less every available metric, including fights lost.  You know what that means? It means Cam Janssen can’t scare anyone out of anything. Maybe opponents are intimidated in some way. Maybe they know exactly what he means to do to them and feel fear. But, evidently, they swallow their fear and make the play anyway, even knowing that he may come in late and high and knock them out.  But usually he doesn’t.  Most of the time, his puck-carrying opponents succeed in their goal and he fails in his, and the only people who are really intimidated are the Devils’ coaching staff, who are patently scared to have Janssen on the ice in any game or situation that actually matters.

This is a fantastic deconstruction of what “tough guys” really are.  They fight staged, irrelevant fights with other players who are just like them (Konopka) and their only success in limited ice time is to blow up a better player.  It’s a predatory role in which they mostly fail.  There’s certainly no metric that illustrates having more tough guys on the roster equals success.

People will tell you that loving tough hockey means loving enforcers. No. Guys like Janssen, Parros, they’re a very recent invention, a product of the last 30 years or so. For most of hockey history, there was no space on rosters for anyone who couldn’t play, and the famous old-time tough guys could carry the puck and throw a hit both. If anything, hockey was tougher when players, star or checker, fought their own battles, rather than downloading the entire team’s violence onto one or two marginal players. Hockey was violent before the designated goon and it will still be violent after. The Boston Bruins, widely considered one of the best and toughest teams of recent years, have not one roster player who registers an average of less than nine minutes of ES time per game, not one who requires the kind of sheltering Janssen does, and not one who gets killed nearly so badly on the shot clock. Call Shawn Thornton a thug if you want, but he can play in the postseason. People will tell you that hockey has always been violence and gore, and that’s true, but it is also true that it’s changed a lot and is changing still. There are things that used to be acceptable- stick violence, bench-clearing brawls- and are now anathema to nearly everyone. Head-hunting is next on the list. Maybe it was cool in the 90s, maybe everyone loved it back then. But we know things now that we didn’t know then, and among the things we’ve learned is this: if we let it, head-hunting will destroy this game. It will cripple our stars and our grinders alike, it will ruin lives and ruin the image of the game. This story doesn’t just end in bloodshed, it ends in dementia and lawsuits. It doesn’t matter if hockey used to be that way for a hundred years. It can’t be that way anymore.

Unfortunately for Etchingham (and everyone else who enjoys the actual game of hockey) the GMs who run the league are older and carry a lot of notions derived from the 70s and 80s when it comes to how they fill out their lineup.  They are also well aware of the inept discipline in the NHL and realise that the once or twice a season their tough guy knocks out another player he’s 1) unlikely to be punished, 2) even if he is, the punishment doesn’t hurt the team.  Change at the NHL level won’t come until there’s a new generation of management and the current generation of hockey writers cheerleading these kinds of players disappear.

Senators News: July 12th

-The Chris Neil signing is now official

Don Brennan echoes himself and Bruce Garrioch (from last week) by writing another article about how the Sens aren’t tough enough.  Unlike in the other columns Brennan actually includes a theory behind why they need to be tougher, “Many feel that Ottawa was able to stage so many third-period comebacks last season partly because opponents knew that if they ran up the score, they’d take a beating from Neil, Konopka or Carkner.”  This is, of course, nonsense, but let me unpack it: both Neil and Carkner were part of the 2010-11 team that didn’t come back on anybody, so unless Konopka by himself was causing comebacks in the games he played, the idea simply doesn’t wash.  There’s really no sense to the sentiment at all, as Carkner barely played last season, Konopka was scratched during the stretch run.  It’s also not an argument based on facts–it’s a “feeling” based on the addition of one player (Konopka).  This argument about toughness has been dynamited over and over again, but oddly has some kind of currency in the blogosphere.  [Travis Yost also points out flaws in the argument.]

Nichols points out that Bruce Garrioch’s (and others) expectation that the Sens can walk away from Kaspars Daugavins after arbitration are wrong.  What they can do is either buy him out or trade him (the latter is more likely).

-Here’s my profile of Tyler Eckford.

Player Profile: Tyler Eckford

Tyler Eckford (DL, 6’1, DOB 1985, 7-217/04, Capgeek: 600k/175k)
2009-10 AHL Lowell 61-8-23-31 +11 26pim (ppg 0.51)
2009-10 NHL New Jersey 3-0-1-1 Even 4pim (ppg 0.33)
2010-11 AHL Lowell 37-2-10-12 -8 12pim (ppg 0.32)
2010-11 NHL New Jersey 4-0-0-0 -1 0pim (ppg 0.00)
2011-12 AHL Portland 75-10-15-25 -13 37pim (ppg 0.33)

An offensively-minded blueliner whose career year was three seasons ago, Ottawa signed him to a two-year, two-way deal.  Eckford played for Portland last year (Phoenix’s affiliate), his first season away from the Devils organisation.  Portland was one of the more offensively productive teams last year (they were 10th in AHL scoring) and Eckford finished second in defensive scoring and ninth in overall points .  He also had the worst plus/minus on the team among those players who played the bulk of the season (no one played more games for the Pirates than he did).  Hockey’s Future has an embarrassingly positive (and dated) assessment of him, “His added strength on his skates made him more powerful, yet allowed him to maintain his speed and mobility. It has also allowed him to be more effective in his one-on-one play in addition to being more physically aggressive. Eckford, a converted forward-to-defenseman, possesses great puck skills. His superb ability to distribute the puck smartly and effectively has made him a mainstay on the Nanooks power play. Eckford has great on-ice vision and awareness. He has little trouble finding and getting passes to open teammates. He can make some really nice tape-to-tape passes and sets up his teammates remarkably well. He loves to join the play and this season also saw some marked improvement in his transition game.”  Once considered a legitimate NHL prospect (see the link), those lofty goals are now discarded.  His addition will help insulate Patrick Wiercioch and add offensive depth on the blueline and I expect him to play in the top-four.  The only odd thing in Eckford‘s history is that he missed a chunk of the 2010-11 for unexplained family reasons, but clearly whatever those were had no discernible impact on him last season.

Senators News: July 11th

-According to multiple reports Ottawa has re-signed Chris Neil to a three-year deal that should see him finish his career with the Sens.  If the salary reported is accurate it’s a good deal for the Sens, although given Neil‘s rough and tumble style I wonder if he’ll play through it all.

Capgeek provides the numbers for Tyler Eckford: 600k/175k.

-I meant to comment on Nichols article about the Sens for the upcoming season, but I forgot in the excitement of the Tyler Eckford signing.  With that out of the way, Nichols has a lot to say that I’ll do my best to summarize the massive amount of text:

For all the praise that we can bestow upon management for finding good value on the free agent market, it’s not like the organization didn’t try to pursue some expensive, big name talent.  According to reports out of Columbus, Bryan Murray got deeper into Rick Nash trade negotiations than any other team. It is entirely possible however that their level of interest in Nash was partially driven by optics. The same optics that Tim Murray acknowledged in a radio interview – explaining that management has to kick the tires on these sorts of players because they do have to answer to ownership and a demanding fan base. The Senators are willing to move young assets in a package to land a quality talent whose best seasons lie ahead of him and will likely align themselves with the young talent that the organization has done an excellent job of stockpiling. It’s somewhat staggering to see the number of people who have emphasized the need to find another top six forward who can help the organization take that progressive next step towards contention. Over the past few weeks, bloggers and the traditional media types have been spit-balling ideas and concocting unlikely scenarios that could net the organization productive wingers. Nevertheless, even without adding one of these players, the optimism surrounding next year’s Senators team is unmistakable. And it’s for that reason that it pains me to bring up a filthy word like regression during the offseason -that time of year when the standings reset and every NHL fan base should be filled with renewed optimism and hope for how the next season could unfold. With 192 man games lost due to injury during the 2011/12 season, the Senators were tied with the Los Angeles Kings for the fifth lowest total in the league. In looking at the injuries that Ottawa accumulated, they were fortunate enough to have their best players go through the season relatively unscathed. With the career years that Michalek and Karlsson enjoyed while veterans like Kuba, Spezza and Alfredsson flourished, Ottawa was fortunate that their best players were able to stay healthy and productive. One of the most common arguments that I have heard fans allude to when describing why Ottawa can be better next season pertains to Craig Anderson. From October through December, the Senators’ number one goalie sported some ugly [numbers]. From January through April however, Anderson’s [numbers improved]. Interestingly however, his record during these two splits is almost identical – a 17-12-3 record from October-December versus a 16-10-3 record from January through April. In other words, despite Anderson’s poor individual performance, the team still won a similar proportion of the games in which he played because he was bailed out one of the league’s highest scoring offences.

Nichols goes on to say he’s more concerned about the Sens blueline than its forward group, fearing that age will mean a drop in the performance/production of Gonchar and Phillips, that there’s no guarantee Methot will be able to handle top minutes, that Erik Karlsson can repeat his numbers, or that Jared Cowen is ready for the next step.  He’s also concerned that Ottawa’s prospects aren’t yet ready to make up for lost production, but does believe the players lost to free agency and via trade should cut down on the number of penalties the Sens take.

So what do I think?  I largely agree with Nichols.  In many ways things did go the Sens way this past season.  There were minor bumps in the road–Filatov went back to the KHL, Zibanejad and Da Costa weren’t ready for prime time, Binghamton had an abysmal year–but all the NHL veterans rebounded and the Turris trade made a huge impact on the team’s success.  Coming into the 2012-13 season the Sens have the opposite problem as the year before–they have a shortage of puck-moving blueliners which may hurt Paul MacLean’s system.  Conversely, they have an abundance of forward prospects while remaining thin on definitive top-six forwards and have solidified their goaltending.  It’s easy to imagine the Sens slipping back into the pack, if any key player (Karlsson and Spezza in particular) has injury problems or an off year.  Regardless, I think they will remain an entertaining team to watch.

Darryl Dobbs takes a fantasy look at the Sens and offers the following:

Mika Zibanejad will be a top-six forward in the future, but he also has the skill set to hold his own on a checking line. That should be enough for him to get a long look in camp as the possible third-line center. He made the team last year, but the Sens got off to a slow start and felt it was best for him to put in another year in Sweden. Between Zibanejad and Peter Regin, the third-line center battle in training camp will be interesting. Jakob Silfverberg won every award possible in the Swedish League last season. He captured player of the year as voted by the league and a similar award as voted by his peers. He finished second in league scoring and later led his team (Brynas) to the championship, earning playoff MVP honors. Then he joined the Sens and was tossed right onto their NHL playoff roster for the last two games (pointless in 18:21 of ice time). He’s as ready to slide into a second-line role as an unproven player can be and I recommend drafting him in all keeper league formats. Although Mark Stone acquitted himself well during his one playoff game with Ottawa, in which he notched an assist, he is best off playing a full American League season. Assuming Daniel Alfredsson returns, I really like Ottawa’s top six, though they could run into trouble if Latendresse spends the majority of the season on the IR. I like how the Sens’ goaltenders are set up from No. 1 to No. 3 and any team with Erik Karlsson on the blueline has offensive spunk. The pipeline has above-average promise in terms of fantasy appeal. Fantasy Grade: B (last year was a D+).

I’m not so sure Zibanejad will automatically makes the club, although the possible departure of Kaspars Daugavins would help his cause.

Senators News: July 10th

-Ottawa signed defenseman Tyler Eckford to a two-way deal.  Eckford was a 7th round pick by the Devils in 2004 and spent last year with the Portland Pirates (75-10-15-25).  The 26-year old left-hand shot has spent the last four years in the AHL, earning 7 NHL games through that time, although there’s virtually no chance he’ll suit up for the Sens.

Scott Cullen looks at Ottawa’s free agent signings:
Mike LundinA player that flies under the radar, [he] was out of the lineup for much of last season due to a back injury then, later in the year, a sports hernia, but he’s been quietly effective when he does play. Lundin played only 17 games for the Wild last season and was asked to play tough minutes. He’s played more than 20 minutes per game in each of the last three seasons so, presuming he’s healthy, Lundin should step into a regular role on the Ottawa blueline.”
There’s nothing new here, but it confirms what has already been said about Lundin.
Guillaume Latendresse is a big forward with soft hands who has flashed offensive ability in his career, but has spent most of the last two seasons on the sidelines battling a groin injury then a concussion that limited him to a total of 27 games over the last two seasons. When he wasn’t hurt last season, Latendresse played a career-high 15:11 per game and scored five goals in 16 games. If he can manage to stay healthy, Latendresse could provide secondary offence for the Senators, offsetting at least some of what the Senators lost when they traded Nick Foligno to Columbus. Considering how much time Latendresse has missed over the last two seasons, it’s optimistic to assume that he won’t run into any injury problems, but it’s a low-risk contract for the Senators. If Latendresse is a 20-goal scorer, then he’ll be a bargain. If not, it’s the cost of a make-good contract.”
I agree with Cullen that it’s a reasonable gamble that may or may not pay off.  Latendresse is essentially a place-holder while the Sens forward prospects develop.

Amelia L looks at the investment by NHL teams into scouting post-lockout, although she admits “Admittedly, this is not an exhaustive study, more of a cursory first look at scouting in the NHL. The scouting numbers for each team are based on current website information and this information is not always complete or readily available.”  This lack of information isn’t as bad as it used to be (I know from trying to do something similar several years ago), but she’s forced to leave out Tampa Bay and Edmonton because of it.  It also means that (unfortunately) the information that is available cannot be assumed to be definitive, only indicative.  She finds that NHL clubs employ an average of 15 scouts (14.8 to be precise), with the following from highest to lowest:
Toronto 23
New Jersey 20
Vancouver 20
Winnipeg 18
St. Louis 18
Dallas 18
Chicago 17
Philadelphia 17
Washington 17
New York Rangers 16
Los Angeles 16
Buffalo 16
Anaheim 15
Pittsburgh 14
Phoenix 14
Montreal 14
Minnesota 14
Detroit 14
Boston 13
Ottawa 13
San Jose 12
Nashville 12
Florida 12
Colorado 12
Calgary 11
Columbus 10
Carolina 9
New York Islanders 9
Edmonton n/a
Tampa Bay n/a

Detroit and Toronto have the most European scouts of any team (5), with Nashville next (4); Anaheim, Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, New Jersey, the Islanders, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Jose, St. Louis, and Vancouver have no European scouts listed (14 teams), although it’s clear from the large “miscellaneous” category of scouts that both Calgary (8) and Anaheim (13) must have some in Europe.  There’s no direct relationship that can be drawn from this snapshot wherein the number of scouts equals the quality of a team’s prospect pool, but that being said, having a gutted scouting department can’t help.

-Here’s my profile of Andre Benoit.

Peter Raaymakers compares the opposition to the new Phoenix Coyote deal to the opposition to the redevelopment of Lansdown Park here in Ottawa.  I don’t see anything other than the most superficial similarities–in both cases tax payers are carrying the freight for private enterprise (like the Skydome in Toronto).  Fundamentally, Ottawa has to do something to Lansdowne because the structures are old and dangerous, so it wasn’t a question of revamping it or not, but rather how.  Phoenix has a financial white elephant in the Coyotes and unlike Raaymakers I don’t think it’s a done deal that they will stay (for the sake of Phoenix tax payers I hope they don’t).

Player Profile: Andre Benoit

Andre Benoit (DL, 5’11, DOB 1984, undrafted, capgeek: 650k/300k)
2009-10 AHL Hamilton 78-6-30-36 +18 63pim (ppg 0.46)
2010-11 AHL Binghamton 73-11-44-55 +2 53pim (ppg 0.75)
2010-11 NHL Ottawa 8-0-1-1 -1 6pim (ppg 0.12)
2011-12 KHL Spartak Moscow 53-5-12-17 -1 34pim (ppg 0.32)

The undersized undrafted star for the Kitchener Rangers enjoyed a career year two seasons ago while winning a Calder Cup with Binghamton (the second Cup of his career).  Last year he decided to earn big money in the KHL and signed with Spartak Moscow and finished third in scoring among Spartak’s blueliners and was eighth overall.  His team was one of the worst in the KHL (19th out of 23), and while he enjoyed the experience he wanted to return to North America so that his daughter could attend an English school.  The Sens did not want to lose him last year and are ecstatic to have him back.  Benoit is one of those “local products” the Murray’s love so much (hailing from St. Albert), but it’s not merely a feel-good story because he will make a big impact on Binghamton’s punchless blueline.  As a long-time pro there’s not much assessment needed for what he’ll bring to Binghamton and if he stays healthy for an entire season he’ll add a lot of offence to the team.  Here’s Benoit talking about his first NHL game (as a Senator in 2011).

Senators News: July 9th

Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus provides his organisational rankings for NHL prospects.  You’ll recall his unorthodox theories regarding the lesser value of defensemen and goaltenders (here; his methodology was not reflected in this year’s draft).  He also tells us about his cut-off point for a prospect, “The Calder Trophy uses a 25-games-played cutoff to determine eligibility and that’s partly what I’ve chosen to use. However, to make sure prospects who played a good number of NHL games in previous seasons and were sent down in the next season were not disqualified, I am using 25 GP in the 2011-12 season. I also think the Calder Trophy’s cutoff of six games in any two seasons was too strict, so I’ve decided to use 50 games. Also for dealing with Russian transfers, I’ve decided if a player is signed in the KHL past their age-22 season they become ineligible for the purpose of these rankings as a prospect until they sign in North America. I use 22 as it’s the age most prospects drafted out of the CHL have their entry level contracts end. Also per the Calder requirements, an age cutoff of 26 or younger as of September 15th is used so a player like Roman Cervenka is eligible. The second change has been to my ranking philosophy. Last year, I predominantly favored whichever team had the most “top prospects”. While am I still valuing that very heavily, I put more emphasis than last year on teams who have systems that have significant talent throughout. That doesn’t mean the teams that have a lot of bottom-six type prospects, but just talented players who may not be top-tier prospects.”  The list:
1. Florida
2. New York Islanders
3. Detroit
4. Minnesota
5. Ottawa
6. Chicago
7. Tampa Bay
8. Anaheim
9. Edmonton
10. Montreal
11. New York Rangers
12. Pittsburgh
13. Dallas
14. Washington
15. Toronto
16. Boston
17. Columbus
18. Buffalo
19. St. Louis
20. Calgary
21. Los Angeles
22. Nashville
23. Winnipeg
24. Vancouver
25. Carolina
26. Colorado
27. New Jersey
28. Phoenix
29. San Jose
30. Philadelphia

His specific comments about the Sens: “Ottawa has a ton of good players throughout its ranks and its depth can rival the Panthers and Islanders. They lack the top-end prospects outside of Mika Zibanejad to get into that same tier with the four systems I have ranked in front of them, but they have quite a few very good ones.”

-A good illustration of why size in the NHL is not indicative of anything is made by Jonathan Willis who lists team’s by size and where they finished (for example, Edmonton had the league’s biggest blueline; the Cup winners were middle of the path at 13th, while Ottawa was 16th).

Brad Kurtzberg posted his list of the 25-worst free agent signings.  Alexei Kovalev is the only Sen to make the list (#16).  Glen Sather is the GM with the most members on this list with five (including three in the top-ten).

-I’ve always been fascinated by European leagues and how they compare to the NHL, so I took a look at the success of post-lockout players signed out of Europe (either as free agents or older prospects), with a particular emphasis on their production.

Translating Production from European Leagues to the NHL

I’ve often wondered how to translate production from the various European leagues, since for every diamond in the rough (Ville Leino despite last season) there are so many failures (Fabian Brunnstrom).  Here I’ve takeen a look at every free agent pro signed out of Europe (or draft picks who came over as mature players) post-lockout who has played at least one NHL game and compared their production (I’ve divided them by league; their ages are in brackets next to their names).  I’ve excluded players who had previous NHL experience between stints in Europe because the transition has already been made; I’ve set the “European pro” bar at age 23 (anything earlier and the player is still a prospect).  For goaltenders the comparisons are slightly less apt (in terms of numbers), but it’s interesting to look at the relative success enjoyed by them.

SEL (11)
2006-07
Joel Lundqvist (24) 49-11-21-32 (ppg 0.65) – 36-3-3-6 (0.16) [ppg difference -0.49]
Third-round pick played 134 NHL games (0.19 ppg)
Patrick Thoresen (23) 50-17-19-36 (0.72) – 68-4-12-16 (0.23) [-0.49]
Undrafted Norwegian free agent played 106 NHL games (0.23 ppg)
Bjorn Melin (26) 49-16-19-35 (0.71) – 3-0-1-1 (0.33) [-0.38]
Sixth-rounder played just 3 NHL games in one season
2007-08
Erik Ersberg (25) 41GP, 2.39, .908 – 6-5-3, 2.48, .927 [0.09, +.019]
Undrafted free agent played 69 NHL games over three seasons with LA
2008-09
Fabian Brunnstrom (23) 54-9-28-37 (0.68) – 55-17-12-29 (0.52) [-0.16]
Hyped free agent out of Farjestad has played 104 NHL games over four seasons (0.39 ppg)
Per Ledin (30) 52-16-17-33 (0.63) – 3-0-0-0 (0.00) [-0.63]
Undrafted pest played 3 NHL games in his only season
2009-10
Jonas Gustavsson (25) 42GP, 1.96, .932 – 16-15-9, 2.87, .902 [0.91, .030]
“The Monster” is undrafted free agent has out of Farjestad who has played 107 NHL games over three seasons and is signed for another with Detroit
Mika Pyorala (28) 55-21-22-43 (0.78) – 36-2-2-4 (0.11) [-0.67]
Undrafted free agent played 36 NHL games in his only season
Henrik Karlsson (27) 34GP, 2.45, .914 – 4-5-6, 2.58, .908 [0.13, .006]
Undrafted free agent has played 26 NHL games thus far (he remains under contract with Calgary)
Johan Backlund (28) 49GP, 2.56, .907 – 0-1-0, 3.00, .917 [0.44, +.010]
Undrafted free agent played 1 NHL game over three seasons in the Flyer organisation
2010-11
Mats Zuccarello (23) 55-23-41-64 (1.16) – 42-6-17-23 (0.54) [-0.62]
Undrafted pint-sized Norwegian played 52 NHL games over two seasons (0.50 ppg)

SM-Liiga (14)
2006-07
Niklas Backstrom (28) 32-9-10, 1.68, .940 – 23-8-6, 1.97, .929 [0.31, .019]
Undrafted free agent out of Karpat has played 327 NHL games and is arguably the best goaltender on this list
Fredrik Norrena (30) – 36GP, 2.16 – 24-23-6 2.78, .904 [0.62]
Seventh-round Finnish vet was signed out of Linkopings and played 100 NHL games over three seasons in Columbus
Mikko Lehtonen (29) 43-6-8-14 (0.32) – 15-1-2-3 (0.20) [-0.12]
Ninth-rounder played 15 NHL games in his only season
Janis Sprukts (24) 35-18-10-28 (0.80) – 13-1-2-3 (0.23) [-0.57]
Eighth-rounder played 14 NHL games over two season (0.21 ppg)
2007-08
Cory Murphy (30) 45-13-37-50 (1.11) – 47-2-15-17 (0.36) [-0.73]
Hyped signing hampered by injury problems; played 91 NHL games over three seasons (0.40 ppg)
2008-09
Ville Leino (24) 55-28-49-77 (1.4) – 13-5-4-9 (0.69) [-0.71]
Undrafted forward has played 220 NHL games over four seasons (0.45 ppg)
Antti Niemi (25) 26-14-6, 2.35, .926 – 1-1-1, 3.40, .864 [1.05, .062]
Undrafted free agent from the Lahti Pelicans, he won a Stanley Cup with Chicago (2010) and has 170 NHL games to his credit; he remains as San Jose’s starting goaltender
Tim Stapleton (C/RW) 55-29-33-62 (1.13) – 4-1-0-1 (0.25) [-0.88]
Undersized NCAA grad played two years in Finland before coming back to North America; he played 118 NHL games over four seasons (0.31 ppg)
Anssi Salmela (25) 56-16-16-32 (0.57) – 26-1-5-6 (0.23) [-0.34]
Undrafted blueliner played 112 NHL games over three seasons (0.19 ppg)
Janne Pesonen (27) 56-34-44-78 (1.39) – 7-0-0-0 (o.oo) [-1.39]
Ninth-rounder played 7 NHL games in his only season
2009-10
Alexander Salak (23) 20-20-9, 2.40, .923 – 0-1-0, 5.37, .850 [2.97, .073]
Undrafted free agent played 2 NHL games in his only season with the Florida organisation
2010-11
Jussi Rynnas (23) 14-13-1, 2.71, .911 – 0-1-0, 4.24, .925 [1.49, +.014]
Undrafted free agent out of Assat has played 2 NHL games over two seasons with Toronto’s organisation; he has one more year left in his ELC
2011-12
Lennart Petrell (27) 56-13-22-35 (0.62) – 60-4-5-9 (0.15) [-0.47]
Sixth-rounder played 60 NHL games last year and was re-signed for the coming season
Iiro Tarkki (26) 20-20-14, 2.09, .924 – 1-0-0, 4.39, .700 [2.30, .242]
Undrafted free agent out of Blues Espoo spent one year with Anaheim’s organisation

KHL/Russia (4)
2006-07
Jan Hejda (28) 50-3-13-16 (0.32) – 39-1-8-9 (0.23) [-0.09]
Fourth-rounder has played 422 NHL games over the past six seasons (0.23 ppg)
Alexei Mikhnov (24) 40-14-8-22 (0.55) – 2-0-0-0 (0.00) [-0.55]
Former first-round pick played just 2 NHL games in his only season
2010-11
Johan Harju (25) 55-4-14-18 (0.33) – 10-1-2-3 (0.30) [-0.03]
Sixth-rounder played 10 NHL games in his only season
2011-12
Alexei Emelin (25) 52-11-16-27 (0.52) – 67-3-4-7 (0.10) [-0.42]
Third-rounder played 67 NHL games in his rookie season

NLA (4)
2006-07
Patrick Fischer (30) 44-21-32-53 (1.20) – 27-4-6-10 (0.37) [-0.83]
Undrafted Swiss vet played 27 NHL games in his only season
2007-08
Jonas Hiller (25) 28-16, 2.60, n/a – 23-10-7-1, 2.06, .927 [+0.54, n/a]
Undrafted Swiss star from HC Davos has played 250 NHL games and remains Anaheim’s starting goaltender
2010-11
Roman Wick (25) 37-15-16-31 (0.83) – 7-0-0-0 (0.00) [-0.83]
Fifth-rounder played 7 NHL games in his only season
2011-12
Raphael Diaz (25) 45-12-27-39 (0.86) – 59-3-13-16 (0.27) [-0.59]
Undrafted blueliner out of EV Zug has played 59 NHL games in his (so far) only season

Czech Elite League (1)
2007-08
Jaroslav Hlinka (30) 46-19-38-57 (1.23) – 63-8-20-28 (0.44) [-0.79]
Undrafted Czech vet played 63 NHL games in his only season

DEL
Players fitting this category haven’t come out of the DEL (the league tends to be a haven for former AHL and ECHL players), as Marcel Muller is the only one who comes close, but signed as a 22-year old he’s really more of a prospect.  There was NHL interest in Tomas Greilinger in 09-10 (who would qualify for my purposes), but nothing came of it.

Slovak Elite League, Erste Bank Liga, Get Ligaen, Al-Bank Ligaen
Players have not been signed directly out of these leagues unless they have prior NHL-experience.

Conclusions: the vast majority of the players signed (24 of 33) come from either the Swedish or Finnish leagues; slightly more than half of the non-goaltenders have played fewer than a season’s worth of NHL games (12 of 23; I’m not including the re-signed Petrell, sophomore Emelin, or RFA Diaz); only two players (Leino and Hejda) have more than two seasons worth of NHL games to their credit.  Those two players are (so far) the only regular NHLers to come out of Europe as veterans post-lockout (seven seasons).  Among the goaltenders there’s been more success (7 of 11 have managed to have an NHL role for at least two seasons), and they compose a significant percentage of the signings (33%).

In terms of the translation of production the stats for players with less than 30 NHL games played just isn’t representative and I’ve tossed them out, which only leaves only the SEL (as a league) open for comparison (none of the other leagues have more than two who qualify):
SEL (5 players): -0.49 ppg
Combining all the non-SEL players (7): -0.55
Putting all the players together (12): -0.52
These numbers only look at players in their first season out of their European leagues, so for the numbers of players with at least 50+ games played in the NHL over their careers (12) their average North American production is: 0.29 ppg (Zuccarello and Leino have the highest).

The conclusion drawn is an obvious one: the scouting community doesn’t make many mistakes and there are very few diamonds in the rough overseas.  The most overlooked players are undersized forwards, which matches the tendency with players in North America.