Senators News: August 22

Robin Lehner talked about his journey as a player:

It’s a marathon, it’s not a sprint. (The Senators) are doing what they think is best for me. They’re trying to develop me as good as they want. I’m an asset to them and they want me to do as well as possible. I’ve got to trust them, too. They’ve got lots of hockey experience in this organization. I’m only 21 — I don’t know as much. I’m just eager to play and eager to show myself. I’ve got to deserve the opportunity first and that’s what I’m (trying to prove) now in the summer and heading to camp, to get them to want me to play here. That was just the thing for me, with the game in Boston and a few other games I played up here, to show myself and show other people that I can play at this level. I know I’ve got a long way to go and some technical things I need to work on, and I have to get more stable and be a little bit more calm in the net. People can look at it that way. This is a business and, of course, they’re going to do things money wise for the organization. That’s not my job. I have one job, to stop pucks and to try to stop as many as I can. That’s what it all comes down to in the end. You’ve got to believe it’s realistic (to make the team). I’m trying to prepare myself as well as I can to be able to get a spot. You never know. You go for it and you see what happens. I’m looking forward to it and I’m excited. Now, when I look back at it … it was a lot of good learning experiences. I think I developed as a goalie and I think I’ve developed and matured a lot as a (person). I’m starting to really know what it’s all about. Last year, in some ways, it didn’t go as we wanted, but it was a really good experience for us, too. Sometimes, that happens. Up here in Ottawa, it felt really good when I got the chance. The main thing for me is (having) the feeling that I got to be a better goalie. And I think I can stop more pucks this season.

The two comments that attract my attention are his mention of the team’s money concerns, which I take to be a reflection of Ben Bishop‘s one-way deal, and his comment about how things felt better in Ottawa, which is clearly where he would like to be.  Unfortunately for Lehner, I don’t think it matters if he’s the second coming of Jacques Plante because the organisation is not going to send Bishop to the minors.

-With next to nothing to write about articles are appearing talking about Jared Cowen and Jakob Silfverberg playing in Binghamton if there is a lockout.  This isn’t news to my mind–both players are signed and the organisation will decide where they play–but as I don’t believe the season is going to be effected by the CBA it’s largely a moot point anyway.

Kyle Turris talked about the upcoming season:

It’s been great working with Schwarzy on things we want to get better at over the summer — getting stronger and putting on some weight. I feel really good. We’re all confident in our abilities as a team. It’s a lot of work to jell and combine together as a team over the course of a season. That’s why we had so much success over the course of last season and into the playoffs. We’re just going to have to do that again this year and everyone’s excited to get back at it. I think it’s exciting [playing with Latendresse]. It’s going to be fun. He’s a big, skilled player and he’s obviously a good player. It’s going to be a good addition for us and fun to have him as a part of our team. I enjoy every minute of it (here). It’s fun to go out and support different charities and learn more about them. I really enjoy going to those events and spending time in the city.

It will be interesting to see if Turris does add the strength he needs to his frame, since presumably that’s been something Phoenix was urging him to do while he was with their organisation.

-Every once and awhile I see an article like this one from Adam Proteau and wonder about the kind of defaults reporters use to fill space.  Proteau argues that a second team in Toronto will create the pressure necessary to make the Maple Leafs more interested in winning.  I have two of problems with this: 1) the assumption that the lack of a second team in the area means there’s no pressure on the Maple Leafs to win (a popular sentiment, but not something that’s demonstrable), 2) that the NHL will allow another team in Toronto.  Unless Proteau can establish the former, his speculation is irrelevant.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: August 20th

-I’ve been away for a week and most of the hockey news has surrounded the tedious CBA negotiations and its attendant hysteria.  Through that noise some Sens news has come down the pipe

Peter Regin has been cleared for contact and considers himself healthy and fully recovered.

-Going back to August 10th, Tim Murray was on The Team 1200 and Nichols transcribed his comments.  He discusses Sens prospect Stefan Noesen:

We recognize certainly his ability and his potential. We have high expectations for him. I suspect that he’s going to be a top-six or seven forward. I suspect that he’s going to play on our power play someday. I suspect that he is going to be a hard guy to play against and be a very competitive guy so our expectations are high. As far as the casual fan, I’m not quite sure what they think or know from him. I think that there are fans out there that follow (the Senators) quite closely and follow the OHL quite closely and know that he’s a quite good prospect. The rules dictate that Stefan makes our team or goes back to junior but for the most part, and I know it’s a cliche but it is true, we’ll let him decide that. He’ll either knock our socks off or go back to junior and that’s basically the two choices that he has. He can’t come into camp and have a solid camp. We’ll be happy with that but it won’t put him on the hockey club.

There’s nothing new here other than setting the development ceiling the team see’s for Noesen.  Murray then commented on Mika Zibanejad playing in North American this upcoming season:

That’s our plan and that’s the thought obviously. We know things can change. There could be a family issue. There are multiple reasons why he would go back next year but that’s not what we want. The plan is for him to either be here eithere in Ottawa or in Binghamton. As I say, I shouldn’t be so definitive in an article like that because we know that it could change but the idea is for him to be here. He wants to be here. We want him here. Is there something that could pop up in the future to change that? Sure, but I don’t foresee that.

The possibility that Zibanejad might return to Sweden at all surprises me, but I still believe he’ll play for either Ottawa or Binghamton this year.  Murray then commented on Bobby Butler‘s buyout:

It was mostly the numbers game. It was partly the way he played. It was partly, I guess, the way that he prepared. I know I hear it all. I hear it’s a long season in Bingo and I hear a lot of things from different people and from different sources, but that came into it. I just think it was easy to do because of the numbers. It was basically $400,000 over two years. The cap hit doesn’t mean anything because of the position that we’re in. I just think the number and I have to say I guess a little bit the way that he played and prepared for last season sure (contributed to his buyout). To me Bobby was a success. He had a two-way contract. He came out of college hockey a little more mature athlete than a kid out of junior. He went down to Binghamton and he played some games (in Ottawa). He played in Binghamton and he scored some big goals down there. Maybe the team doesn’t win a (Calder) Championship without him, so I think his first year was a success. He gets a one-way (contract) because of the way that the CBA was worded and the amount of games that he has to play in the NHL for us to retain his rights and a whole bunch of different reasons that he gets the one-way deal. I think he kind of on the ice deserved the one-way deal. We had to give it to him or lose him anyway. I think maybe he just got caught up in: we win a championship, he played a lot, it was a short summer and he just… it all came at him too quickly and he didn’t know how to prepare for the following year. Now I think he can take a step back and certainly, I think you can learn from that. I assume that he’s having a better summer this year and is being more prepared. He signed a two-way (contract) with Jersey and now he has to earn his NHL games again and we’ll see where he’s at.

There’s nothing surprising about the comments.  Murray then talked about signing college free agents in general:

I think that they’re a good try. They are on a two-way. You have to give them a signing bonus. I think that when you can get a free player like that… I just don’t know what you guys expect or the fans expect when (we announce the signing of a collegiate free agent). For the most part, (Jesse (Winchester), Bobby (Butler) at times in their time with us in Ottawa, we’ve been very pleased with the production that we got from the money that we put out.

Murray touches on the primary problem college free agents face–hype (as I concluded not long ago).  The expectations for undrafted NCAA stars are often higher than is warranted.  The only other items of note was Murray commenting on Matt Puempel‘s improvements as a player and that the team is essentially done in free agency.

Adnan wonders what fans can expect in terms of production from Erik Karlsson and compares him to a number of other top offensive blueliners, but I think the most important comment is this one, “most of those players did this [continuing high levels of production] in the 1980s where scoring goals was a lot easier.”  If Adnan said “from the 1967 expansion into the early 1990s” he would be absolutely correct about when scoring was high in the NHL.  This makes the comparisons very tricky, as the trend in the NHL is less scoring (declining every single year).

The Hockey News has been slowly grinding out their predictions for the 2012-13 season and have picked the Senators to finish eighth in the Eastern Conference:

The Sens surprised many (THN included) when they made the playoffs last season. However, now that offense-minded dynamo and reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson has blossomed into a superstar, they won’t be able to sneak up on opponents. The good news is that with goaltending depth (Craig Anderson, Ben Bishop and Robin Lehner), a buttressed blueline (with the addition of Marc Methot) and promising youngsters including Kyle Turris, Jakob Silfverberg and Mika Zibanejad up front, they don’t need stealth to in order to win.

I don’t know why THN doesn’t fully embrace being wrong about the Sens last year–it happened to most predictions.  There’s no need to qualify the error by saying the Sens were “sneaky”.  I actually think the Sens are likely to finish on the outside looking in (an opinion shared by Nichols), and I have problems both with decreased offensive capacity of Ottawa’s blueline, the ability of the team to reproduce their offensive production overall, and I my opinion of the Anderson/Bishop tandem is “wait and see”.

-For those who’ve followed the Dany Heatley saga after being traded from Ottawa, he’s filled a lawsuit against his former agent

Stu Hackel writes about the NHL’s deplorable officiating and notes that the uninspiring Colin Campbell has admitted the officiating standards have slipped considerably since the post-lockout era began.  One can only hope there’s a slight shift towards allowing skill to return to the forefront of the game.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

On Vacation

I’m away until Monday and likely won’t be able to post until then.

Player Profile: Jared Cowen

Jared Cowen, D, Contract: 1.325/14 (RFA) 1-9 2009 (Murray)
6’5, Shoots L, YOB 1991, Allan, Sask
2008-09 WHL Spokane 48-7-14-21 (ppg 0.43) +15 45pim (3 fights)
2009-10 WHL Spokane 59-8-22-30 (ppg 0.51) +23 74pim (2 fights)
2010-11 WHL Spokane 58-18-30-48 (ppg 0.82) +44 91pim (5 fights)
2011-12 NHL Ottawa 82-5-12-17 (ppg 0.2) -4 56pim (2 fights) TOI 18:53

Heading into the 2009 draft, the Ottawa Senators had fired their coach mid-season (Craig Hartsburg) for the second straight year and missed the playoffs for the first time since 1995-96.  They had the 9th overall pick, their highest since selecting Brian Lee in 2005.  Going into the draft the team had 9 NHL blueliners (Chris Campoli, Filip Kuba, Brian Lee, Chris Phillips, Alexandre Picard, Luke Richardson, Christoph Schubert, Jason Smith, and Anton Volchenkov).  The system wasn’t very deep (Mattias Karlsson had already signed a deal to return to the SEL), but the previous draft had seen Erik Karlsson and Patrick Wiercioch selected, both high-end defensemen.  I make this long preamble to illustrate why it seems Bryan Murray attempted to make a trade with Toronto’s Brian Burke in order to land Nazem Kadri.  There are a lot of conspiracy theories that claim Murray Jedi-mind tricked Burke into taking Kadri, but I don’t think we can know that one way or another.  It’s reasonable enough to accept that the Sens preferred to draft a forward, although 6’5 blueliners don’t grow on trees and Murray does like size.  Going into the draft, Cowen was ranked #7 by Bob McKenzie, but his stock had dropped because of a serious knee injury.

There was no question that Cowen would be returned for at least one more year of junior given the depth in Ottawa.  He made Canada’s WJC roster, but did not play much in earning a silver medal in Buffalo.  The following season the blueline was still crowded with six one-way contracts plus Erik Karlsson, so Cowen was returned for his final year of junior.  He made the WJC roster again, this time enjoying a larger role (again winning a silver medal, this time in Saskatoon).  After Spokane was knocked out of the WHL playoffs, Cowen was sent to Binghamton where he became a key member of the blueline, logging big minutes alongside AHL veteran Andre Benoit on his way to winning a Calder Cup.

This past season Cowen played his first professional season, spending the entire year in the NHL and playing all 82-games.  He wasn’t expected to be a big point producer in the NHL, but acquitted himself well given limited powerplay opportunities (oddly, 9 of his 17 points came in December).  The season featured some aggressive rookie mistakes, but on the whole he delivered what was expected.  Entering the upcoming season more will be expected of Cowen as he gradually replaces Chris Phillips‘ ice time and the team will look for him to add some of the toughness that departed with Matt Carkner.  I think Cowen will see more second-unit powerplay minutes so his point totals should go up slightly (20-25).

Cowen‘s profile the year he was drafted
-An interview at last year’s development camp
-Cowen scoring a hat trick

Senators News: August 11th

The 6th Sens provide their Senators essentials for Puck Daddy.  It’s an entertaining read and re-cap and I encourage you to check it out, but their notion that the 2002/03 Senators were better than the 2005/06 Sens is wrong and while there are many reasons for that I’ll make it simple: goaltending.  No one wins with Patrick Lalime between the pipes.

-Here’s my look at the success of college free agents in the post-lockout NHL.

Mark Parisi writes a long article wondering why fans expectations for rookies are so varied (specifically comparing Colin Greening to other prospects), but never makes the connection that the difference is hype.  No one hyped Greening or Condra the way they have Mika Zibanejad, Mark Stone, and Jakob Silverberg.

-In the “water is wet” category Bruce Garrioch reports that Mika Zibanejad won’t be going back to Sweden.  This is only news to Garrioch himself, but he does provide some comments about how disappointed the Sens were with how Djurgarden used Zibanejad when he was in Sweden:

Nothing is ever a waste of time so it wasn’t a waste of time, but it was close to that I guess. They weren’t very good. I assume the management and coaching staff have to take some responsibility for that. The players suffer. Unless you’re there every day you don’t know, but I can say there were times they didn’t (put him in the role they promised). Consistently, they didn’t. There were probably times we didn’t see them play that they did. Overall, no, it wasn’t a great experience, that’s for sure. There’s at least one spot in a Top-6 role and I think any one of the kids could come in and push for that. It’s going to be good competition. He can play either wing. He did for Sweden. I don’t think it matters at all. You can see that he’s a top player. He looked good in spurts. When he gets the puck in the offensive zone and when he shoots the puck, he shoots it like nobody else. He’s got a 10-out-of-10 NHL shot, not (just) a top shot for his own age group. He shoots the puck like a man. That’s his biggest asset.

-For those looking for a primer on the New Jersey Devils financial situation check out Stu Hackel‘s article.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Free Agent College Signings in the Post-Lockout NHL

When the Ottawa Senators bought out Bobby Butler it brought to mind the free agent frenzy that occurs around undrafted college players the last four-five years.  How much success do undrafted college players have in the NHL (the same kind of question I examined in my look at European free agents)?  There’s a large number of players signed from the NCAA, but no comprehensive list of them exists, so I’ve limited myself to those players who have played at least one game in NHL.  I’m also beginning the season after the lockout ended (2006-07) when it became clear how the style of play in the league had changed and what the impact the cap would have on rosters (for the 2010 and 2011 sessions I have Red Line Report‘s estimation of the caliber of these players).  This list does not include players like Ryan Garbutt (Dal) who played their up from minor league contracts (as opposed to immediately signing with an NHL club).  Key: D is for defenseman, G is for goalie; the numbers in brackets are their final college season’s stats before signing; players are listed in order of games played.

2006 (7)
Andy Greene (D, 39-9-22-31, NJ) – 347 NHL games through six seasons; going into the second season of a four-year deal
Rod Pelley (39-7-7-14, NJ) – 256 NHL games through six seasons; currently a UFA
Ryan Carter (39-19-16-35, Ana) – 254 NHL games through six seasons; signed a two-year, one-way deal with the Devils
Bill Thomas (41-27-23-50, Phx) – 87 NHL games through six seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Colorado
Tim Wallace (36-11-12-23, Pit) – 73 NHL games through six seasons; currently on a two-way deal with Carolina
Junior Lessard (45-32-31-63, Dal) – 2y NHL games through six seasons; currently playing in the LNAH
Jamie Hunt (D, 33-12-33-45, Wsh) – 1 NHL game through six seasons; retired

2007 (14)
Ryan Shannon (38-14-31-45, Ana) – 305 NHL games through six seasons; now in Switzerland
Darroll Powe (34-13-15-28, Phi) – 286 NHL games through five seasons; two years left on a three-year deal (now with Minnesota)
Teddy Purcell (40-16-27-43, TB) – 272 NHL games through five seasons; is signed through the next four years with Tampa
Chris Connor (38-17-12-29, Dal) – 147 NHL games through six seasons; he has a two-way deal with Phoenix
Mark Letestu (37-24-22-46, Pit) – 136 NHL games through five seasons; on the final year of a one-way deal with Columbus
Kevin Westgarth (33-8-16-24, LA) – 90 NHL games through five seasons; signed to a new two-year, one-way deal with LA
Derek Smith (D, 43-10-20-30, Ott) – 58 NHL games through five seasons; signed his first one-way deal (two years) with Calgary
Trevor Smith (38-21-22-43, NYI) – 23 NHL games through five seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Pittsburgh
Sean Collins (D, 37-9-19-28, Wsh) – 21 NHL games through five seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Rangers
Gabe Gauthier (38-15-24-39, LA) – 8 NHL games through five seasons; signed with Colorado in the ECHL
Kyle Greentree (39-21-21-42, Phi) – 4 NHL games through five seasons; currently a UFA
John Curry (G, 2.01, .928, Pit) – 4 NHL games through five seasons; currently a UFA
Sean Bentivoglio (37-16-30-46, NYI) – 1 NHL game through five seasons; current a UFA
Darcy Campbell (D, 39-4-20-24, Clb) – 1 NHL game through five seasons; now playing tier-2 hockey in Germany

2008 (8)
Jesse Winchester (40-8-29-37, Ott) – 233 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Jack Hillen (D, 41-6-31-37, NYI) – 230 NHL games through four seasons; signed a one-year, one-way deal with Washington
Davis Drewiske (D, 40-5-16-21, LA) – 106 NHL games through four seasons; in the final year of his one-way contract with the Kings
Mike Moore (D, 34-7-17-24, SJ) – 6 NHL games through four seasons; signed a one-year, two-way contract with Nashville
Peter Mannino (G, 2.26, .917, NYI) – 6 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Matt Climie (G, 2.15, .913, Dal) – 5 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Brock Trotter (24-13-18-31, Mtl) – 2 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA
Jeff Penner (35-5-7-12, Bos) – 2 NHL games through four seasons; currently a UFA

2009 (8)
Matt Gilroy (D, 45-8-29-37, NYR) – 194 NHL games through three seasons; currently a UFA
Tyler Bozak (19-8-15-23, Tor) – 192 NHL games through three seasons; entering the final year of his contract
Dan Sexton (38-17-22-39, Ana) – 88 NHL games through three seasons; entering the final year of his contract (which is one-way)
Christian Hanson (37-16-15-31, Tor) – 42 NHL games through three seasons; signed a two-way deal with Boston
MacGregor Sharp (43-26-24-50, Ana) – 8 NHL games through three seasons; played in Italy last season
Evan Oberg (D, 43-7-20-27, Van) – 7 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Tampa
Brad Thiessen (G, 2.11, .931, Pit) – 5 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way contract with Pittsburgh
Corey Elkins (42-18-23-41, LA) – 3 NHL games through three seasons; signed a one-year, two-way deal with Anaheim

2010 (11)
Bobby Butler (39-29-24-53, Ott) – 92 NHL games through two seasons; Red Line Report listed him as the 9th best college free agent; signed a one-year, two-way deal with New Jersey after being bought out
Nate Prosser (D, 39-4-24-28, Min) – 56 NHL games through two seasons; unlisted by RLR; signed a new two-year, one-way contract with the Wild
Chris Tanev (D, 41-10-18-28, Van) – 54 NHL games through two seasons; unlisted by RLR; in the final year of his ELC
Casey Wellman (36-23-22-45, Min) – 41 NHL games through two seasons; RLR listed him 11th; signed a two-way deal with Florida
Tommy Wingels (44-17-25-42, SJ) – 38 NHL games through two seasons, RLR listed him 16th; signed a two-year, one-way contract with the Sharks
Aaron Volpatti (37-15-17-32, Van) – 38 NHL games through two seasons; unlisted by RLR; signed a two-way deal to stay with the Canucks
Erik Gustafsson (D, 39-3-29-32, Phi) – 33 NHL games through two seasons, RLR listed him 7th; completing the third year of his ELC
Ben Scrivens (G, 1.87, 0.934, Tor) – 12 NHL games through two seasons, RLR listed him 29th; not yet re-signed by the Leafs
Ben Holmstrom (39-9-14-23, Phi) – 7 NHL games through two seasons; unlisted by RLR; on a one-year, two-way deal with the Flyers
Jarod Palmer (44-18-27-45, Min) – 6 NHL games through two seasons; RLR listed him 1st; remains with the Wild organisation (two-way deal)
Brayden Irwin (39-15-19-34, Tor) – 2 NHL games through two seasons; RLR listed him 13th; currently a free agent

2011 (8)
Matt Read (37-22-13-35, Phi) – 79 NHL games; RLR ranked him 13th; he remains with the Flyers
Harry Zolnierczyk (30-16-15-31, Phi) – 37 NHL games; RLR ranked him 2nd; he remains with the Flyers on a two-way deal
Stephane Da Costa (33-14-31-45, Ott) – 22 NHL games through one season; RLR ranked him 1st; remains with Ottawa on a two-way deal
Andy Miele (39-24-47-71, Phx) – 7 NHL games; RLR ranked him 8th; he remains with the Phoenix organisation
Carter Camper (39-19-38-57, Bos) – 3 NHL games; RLR ranked him 10th; remains with the Bruins organisation (two-way deal)
Mike Connolly (42-28-26-54, Col) – 2 NHL games; RLR ranked him 4th; remains with Colorado on a two-way
Torey Krug (D, 38-12-22-34, Bos) – 2 NHL games; unlisted by RLR; two more years remain of his ELC remain
Chay Genoway (D, 36-6-31-37, Min) – 1 NHL game; RLR ranked him 9th; he remains with the Wild organisation (two-way)

Over this six year period fifty-five collegiate free agents have suited up for at least one NHL game.  This dwarfs the number of free agents in other undrafted categories (Europe, CHL, CIS).  Two-thirds of teams in the league have signed such a player over the timeframe (with the exceptions of Atlanta/Winnipeg, Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Florida, Nashville, and St. Louis).  Philadelphia has signed the most players with six, while Ottawa is tied with five others with four.

What value have these players had?  It’s too soon to judge the players from the last two seasons (19 of the 56), but of the remaining players 23 (of 37) have played fewer than 100 games and the vast majority are depth/complimentary additions to their organisations.  These are useful players, but not diamonds in the rough.  The best players gleaned from the sample are Andy Greene (347-16-85-101), Teddy Purcell (272-52-98-150), and Tyler Bozak (192-41-65-106).  Even among those three Purcell is the only name that truly stands out.  I’d guess Matt Read will join the elite category, but one season of play isn’t enough to be sure.

I take from this overview that what NHL general managers can expect from the NCAA ranks are (at best) solid citizens who can fill out roles in their lineups, but for whom expectations need to be tempered.  The best players in college are drafted and those who slip through the cracks are almost always undersized players.

Senators News: August 8th

Ross MacLean offers his “best value” picks for the 2012 draft and two Senators make the list: third-rounders Chris Driedger and Jarrod Maidens.  “Driedger has great potential and brings a tremendous attitude and never-quit passion to the crease, while Maidens would have been a first-rounder if he hadn’t missed most of the OHL season due to injury. While Maidens’ long-term health status remains in the air, his upside is tremendous.”  Maidens mention is no surprise, but Driedger received little scouting approbation outside of MacLean’s own ISS.

Ed Benkin writes about Sens prospect Michael Sdao (7-191/09), who talked about his development experience:

It is a development camp. It’s all about player development and trying to improve your skills. The physical play is part of the game, so sometimes that does come up. It was great. It was good to go back there and see some of my friends and roommates from past years. It was my third time in camp, so I have a really good relationship with a lot of the guys. It’s such a great city and great place to be. You definitely get a taste of what it’s like to be a pro. It’s intended to make you hungry and get to the next level, and that’s definitely what it’s done for me. They’ve talked to me about my career after Princeton. They expect me to be a big part of the organization down the line. They’re very engaged in their prospects. Every year, they’ve been able to make it to some of my games and I’m thankful for that. I got to play more minutes and develop my skills [at Princeton; Sdao was named as a first-team All-Ivy League and second-team All-ECACH]. I also got some power play time and a lot of penalty-kill time.  Just to play as much as I was able to play made it a great year. You get through July and everyone is itching to get back to school. The way last season ended definitely left a bad taste in our mouths. That’s [fighting] definitely part of the game. It’s something that happens and there’s a time and a place for it. You just have to know when it is. But I don’t want to be known as a one-dimensional player. There’s so much more to the game. That’s [becoming a professional] in the back of your mind all the time. You just want to watch and learn from what those guys are doing. Watching Hockey Night in Canada makes you wish that someday, that will be you.

Ottawa’s last pick in the 2009 draft, Sdao‘s talents as a pugilist guarantee him a pro career of some extent, but his improvement in all other areas make him one of the Sens more intriguing prospects.

Nichols makes a number of interesting points in his latest article:

As a head coach who often employs the paired forward tactic (he doesn’t look at lines as a set trio comprised of a centre and two wings. Instead, a pair of forwards are the constant with the third member of the line being selected from a rotating a group of wingers), Paul MacLean joins the ranks of coaches like Alain Vigneault, Ken Hitchcock and Mike Babcock who have been recognized for using this strategy.

The link is from The Province‘s Gordon McIntyre, who notes the CBC’s Elliiotte Friedman also referenced it:

The Hitchcockian stuff came when we discussed Edmonton’s forward lines. In Dallas, Hitchcock once explained how he believed more in forward “pairs” than trios. For example, Mike Modano always played with Jere Lehtinen. The third could be rotated. [Ralph] Krueger wants to see if he can create a flexible, dangerous lineup that way.

Nichols brings up this strategy because he wonders if Milan Michalek would be better suited playing with Kyle Turris rather than Jason Spezza:

Last season, MacLean relied heavily upon the strong puck possession skills of the Kyle Turris/Alfie second line duo to shut down the opposition’s best offensive forwards; whereas the Spezza unit benefitted from: a) being frequently paired with Erik Karlsson; and b) a high offensive zone start rate (note: Michalek was at 61.5% and Spezza at 59.3%). Despite playing the bulk of his 5v5 shifts playing with Karlsson and Spezza, Michalek’s puck possession numbers are middling. It’s no coincidence that whenever the first line languished, MacLean would tap Alfie on the shoulder and send him over the boards. Unlike Michalek or Colin Greening, Alfie could help Spezza ease Spezza’s burden. Too often when the first line is struggling, it’s because the offence has to run through Spezza to create its chances. When he’s off his game, he’s like a collegiate student running around his campus bar in an effort to pick up women minutes before it closes – forcing passes in effort to score. Per DobberHockey, 34 of Michalek’s 60 points came at even strength while playing on a line with Spezza. Michalek may have benefitted from a career high shooting percentage of 16.5% — that conveniently coincided with his second highest regular season shot total (and highest while playing for the Senators) – but when taken into context with how unlikely it is that Erik Karlsson replicates last season’s even strength production, the odds of Michalek’s offensive numbers regressing towards his career norms are presumably quite high.

I agree wholeheartedly that Michalek‘s numbers will fall in the upcoming season and it’s just as likely he won’t be as healthy.  However, Nichols’ number crunching is all leading up to one purpose and that is to suggest who he would like to see play with Spezza:

Over the past two seasons, Latendresse has only played in 27 NHL games and prior to signing in Ottawa, the Montreal native had to pass a physical. In other words, relative to Latendresse‘s health, Michalek’s an ironman. An optimist may suggest that these injuries have prevented a physical presence like Latendresse from putting too much mileage on his body but staying healthy is obviously going to be a major factor in how much Latendresse can contribute this season with the Sens. Fortunately, in the event that he can’t, it’s not like his contract term or cost is a burden on the organization. As Jonathan Willis wrote for Oilersnation.com [speculating if the Oilers should pursue him], He’s young, big, often physical, and more importantly he’s a pretty good possession player who has consistently been a high-percentage goal-scorer over his NHL career (on 568 career shots, Latendresse is a 14.3% shooter; he’s never been below 12.0% in a single NHL season). He fits team need perfectly. When he has been healthy, Latendresse has shown some goal scoring ability. With a playmaker like Spezza, he hopefully improve upon his  offensive totals. (Albeit, he needs to significantly increase the number of shots that he takes.) Under the right circumstances, he should be able to approach 20 goals and 40 points and at the very least, he would certainly add the puck possession dynamics that the first line sorely lacks when Alfie is not on it. By using Latendresse on the top line for his puck possession skills, it affords MacLean the flexibility to continue using Alfie with Turris so that the second line isn’t marginalized.

It’s an interesting argument and quite frankly I have no idea where MacLean envisions Latendresse in his lineup.  When healthy he should play in the top-six, but given his injury history I don’t think anyone knows what to expect when he laces up his skates in the fall.  He will get his opportunities with Spezza, but I’ll agree with Nichols that in the best of all worlds he could make a better linemate for Spezza (I’ve always seen Michalek as a second-line player).

Mark Parisi thinks the injury to Philadelphia’s Andrej Meszaros opens the door to Ottawa trading Sergei Gonchar.  He suggests Ottawa could get a second round pick from the Flyers in return, but I don’t think he delves enough into the kind of hole moving Gonchar would create on Ottawa’s blueline.  Despite all the carping and whining about Gonchar‘s performance for the Sens, there’s no prospect even close to being the kind of player he is.  Moving him would put 100% of the offensive onus on Erik Karlsson and his numbers (and the team’s numbers) would suffer accordingly.  I think the blueline as is won’t be as proficient offensively as last year and moving Gonchar would make it worse.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Senators News: August 7th

-Joy Lindsay, Binghamton’s excellent beat writer for the past two years, is moving on from the team.  I join many other fans in wishing her all the best–her coverage of all things Binghamton was second to none.

-In Joy’s final post she clarifies that Shane Prince can be returned to junior, which would help alleviate the forward clutter in Binghamton’s roster.

-Speaking of Binghamton, I will continue updating my roster and expectations as new information dictates.

Mark Parisi wonders if signing college free agents is worth it (something I brought up when Bobby Butler was bought out), but instead of looking at their general success he sadly limits his comments to Ottawa’s signings under Bryan Murray and listing Hobey Baker winners.  I would have liked to see some analysis on the broader phenomena post-lockout, but I am beginning to think I’ll have to write about it myself.  I limit myself to post-lockout because the attitude of teams towards drafting, prospects, and college free agents changed with the new CBA.

-Here are my profiles of Zack Smith and Colin Greening.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)

Player Profile: Colin Greening

Colin Greening, C/LW, Contract: 0.816,667/14 (UFA), Drafted 7-204/05 (Muckler)
6’2, Shoots L, YOB 1986, St. John’s, NL
2009-10 NCAA Cornell 34-15-20-35 (ppg 1.02) 31pim
2010-11 AHL Bing 59-15-25-40 (ppg 0.68) +12 41pim (6 fights)
2010-11 NHL Ott 24-6-7-13 (ppg 0.54) +2 10pim TOI 15:05
2011-12 NHL Ott 82-17-20-37 (ppg 0.45) -4 46pim (4 fights) TOI 15:35

An off-the-board draft pick out of Upper Canada College, Colin Greening was a long term project who spent a year in the BCHL before moving on to Cornell in the NCAA.  Finishing his senior year both as captain and the student-athlete of the year, he signed a one-year ELC and was sent to Binghamton.

Greening spent about a month settling into the Binghamton lineup, but from that point on his game really picked up and in February he was recalled to the Senators.  Greening quickly won the confidence of coach Cory Clouston and was used extensively.  He also enjoyed some notoriety after beating Antoine Vermette‘s fastest skater record and narrowly losing to Matt Carkner for the hardest shot (you can listen to former Player Operations director Brent Flahr talk about how Greening needs to improve his skating back in 2009).  When the Senators’ season came to an end Greening returned to Binghamton to help the team in their Calder Cup run.  There wasn’t much left in the tank and Greening could not keep up his production (22-1-4-5).  Nevertheless, he earned a three-year, one-way contract.

His first full season in the NHL was a complete success.  Despite not being blessed with the best hands his point totals were above projections (I predicted between 25-30 points) and he remained fairly consistent in his production unlike pseudo-rookie Zack Smith.   His intangibles allow him to play anywhere throughout the lineup.  I’m sure the organisation wishes he would be more combative, but that doesn’t appear to be in his makeup.

Greening is built like a tank.  Randy Lee said he’s the closest to Zdeno Chara‘s physique he’s seen.  While he’s a physical player, he doesn’t throw many big hits like Chris Neil.  Greening‘s speed and work ethic make it easy to slot him anywhere in the lineup.  It’s difficult to project Greening‘s totals in this upcoming season given that it’s difficult to know where he’ll play in the lineup.  I think he’ll get less time playing in the top-six, but 30 points seems reasonable.

Player Profile: Zack Smith

Zack Smith, C/LW, Contract: 0.7/13 (RFA), Drafted 3-79/08 (Murray)
6’2, Shoots L, YOB 1988, Maple Creek, Sask
2008-09 AHL Bing 79-24-24-48 (ppg 0.61) +2 132pim (10 fights)
2009-10 NHL Ott 15-2-1-3 (ppg 0.33) +1 14pim (2 fights) TOI 9:02 FO 47.5
2009-10 AHL Bing 68-14-27-41 (ppg 0.6) -7 100pim (10 fights)
2010-11 NHL Ott 55-4-5-9 (ppg 0.16) -11 120pim (6 fights) TOI 12:36 FO 53.9
2010-11 AHL Bing 22-7-5-12 (ppg 0.54) +3 32pim (2 fights)
2011-12 NHL Ott 81-14-12-26 (ppg 0.32) +4 98pim (8 fights) TOI 14:04 FO 48.9

Zack Smith was an overage player when he was selected in the 2008 NHL draft.  Captain of the Swift Current Broncos, Smith‘s WHL production leapt from 31 to 70 points between drafts, adding to the grit and toughness he was already known for.  Smith had a great training camp and was the last player cut.  He joined a Binghamton team lead by Ilya Zubov and Mattias Karlsson and finished fifth in team scoring.

Heading into the 2009-10 season, hopes were high for Smith, but he was beat out by Peter Regin for a roster spot and was returned to Binghamton.  Smith put up identifical point-per-game results in the AHL, also seeing action in 15 NHL games (the second most for call-ups behind Brian Lee).

In 2010-11 Smith made the Senators out of camp, but was returned to Binghamton in October and bounced back and forth until being permanently retained in late December.  While his Binghamton numbers were essentially the same as the previous two years, his season in Ottawa was much like the rest of the team’s–mixed.  When the regular season ended he was returned to Binghamton where he helped them win the Calder Cup.  Smith struggled in the team’s first series against Manchester, but was strong thereafter and finished fourth in team playoff scoring (23-8-12-20).  He was rewarded with a two-year, one-way deal.

Smith was solid in his first full year in the NHL, providing grit and penalty killing in a third-line role.  His production faded badly in the second half (21 of his 26 points were collected before January), but intangibles made him a useful player even when he wasn’t scoring and he produced more than I predicted (15 points).  I expect his offensive opportunities will be fewer in the upcoming season, so 20 points would be a good year for Smith offensively.

-Smith‘s fight with Nathan Horton
Smith scoring his first goal 
-Smith talking about his one-way contract