Senators News: July 25th

-As expected, the Sens re-signed Corey Cowick to a one-year, two-way deal (625k) that is a modest raise over his ELC.

-I updated my Assessing Bryan Murray article.

Nichols breaks out his transcription machine and discusses Elliotte Friedman’s appearance on The Team 1200.  Friedman discussed Alfredsson‘s departure and said the following:

I think that in a lot of ways, Alfredsson and Murray were pretty honest about it when they spoke about it the day that it happened. I don’t that there is a lot of lying going on here. I think just the one thing here is that you have to read between the lines. And, I did write about it. I wonder if there was a little bit of mistrust between, not Alfredsson, but Melnyk and JP Barry over the whole Dany Heatley thing.

Nichols points out how he thinks this echoes a Wayne Scanlan Tweet reporting that Tony Rhodes said Alfredsson‘s decision was related to ownership as much as anything.  Friedman goes on to suggest that Alfredsson may not have liked how Murray phrased his initial rejection of a contract offer, but the entirety of his argument doesn’t add up to me.  Dany Heatley was a long time ago and if Alfie is as strong-willed as Friedman (and everyone) says he is, he’s not going to care if J. P. Barry was unhappy with how the Heatley situation was handled.  Alfredsson has had eight years to get used to how Bryan Murray speaks, so the GM’s language is nothing new.  I also don’t think Rhodes’ comment inherently reflects on Friedman’s theory–it just as easily applies to Melnyk’s financial difficulties (which Nichols seems to doubt despite all readily available news to substantiate it), something I thought were reflected in Alfredsson‘s comments after he decided to leave.  I don’t know if Friedman is deliberately obfuscating the reasons Alfie left because the Sens financial struggles are apparently not to be discussed, or if he genuinely believes an initial contract discussion plus a player change from several years ago is enough for Alfie to leave the team and city he’s called home for so long.  The latter seems extremely implausible.

-Speaking of Friedman, he Tweeted today that undrafted Swedish NCAA left winger Ludwig Karlsson might be signing with Ottawa as a free agent.  I’ve seen nothing else reflecting that, but it’s certainly a possibility.  Karlsson spent two years at Northwestern University, this last season being an abbreviated one for him (17-5-3-8).  The 22-year old was draft eligible in 2009 and Central Scouting had him ranked #138 among Europeans.

Kent Wilson writes about selection bias in hockey statistics and his intro gives you the gist:

When it comes to statistical analysis the population of interest  is everything.  Outcomes only apply to the population in the study. Furthermore, any manipulation of the population adds bias to the study. Sometimes this is obvious, but other times it might hide behind a curtain which isn’t obvious, even if we apply tests of statistical significance. That is why methodology is important.

So what is selection bias?

[It] refers to an error in the outcomes as a result of the method in which the data was collected or sampled.  When analyzing teams, this is easily avoided by collecting as many if not all games in each season, then randomizing the team-games for every year. For analysis of skaters or goalies this is tremendously more difficult. We aren’t working with a natural population with new individuals entering the population at random, nor leaving at random. Individuals are selected  on past (not current or intrinsic) characteristics. This is made all the more difficult because these selection pressures are often the same variables we are interested in studying.

And what is methodology?

When I refer to “method,” I use it as a basket term for everything one does in a study to come to a conclusion.  This includes a) the initial inquiry, b) the study design, c) the method used to collect data, d) analysis of that data, and e) interpretation of the results. Each of those steps feature potential biases.  I’ll synopse each stage briefly.

Definitely worth checking out.

This article is written by Peter Levi (@eyeonthesens)


1 Comment

  1. […] prevent the team from becoming a better Cup contender (by adding talent), debunking the theory of Elliotte Friedman and others than it was related to pride.  Melnyk also discussed the kind of handcuffs he’s […]

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